11/14/2024

speaker
Joachim Duhr
Chief Executive Officer

A very good morning here from our Yoast office in Shanghai, where I am today located. A warm welcome to our Q3 quarterly results call for the third quarter 2024. So if you look at the third quarter 2024, we can say we had a very soft, very slow market development. But I think we still had a very, very active Q3 at Yoast. First, we had our capital markets day in the beginning of September, which I think was a great success, a good outcome, a lot of interesting information and good discussion. And we were also able to reconfirm our ambition or to show you our ambition for the midterm future, where we want to become a two billion dollar company, two billion euros rather company and want to accelerate our earnings to 10 euros per share on an adjusted EBIT basis. I'm also very happy to show some highlights that help us achieve that target, so very happy that we could announce that we have signed the agreement to acquire the HULA Group, which is adding the global market leader for hydraulic tipping cylinders to our portfolio. A very good match, extending our portfolio, almost no overlap in the existing portfolio, big overlap with the customer groups. and also a strong footprint in Asia, which is where we expect the market growth to be much stronger than in the traditional Western countries that we today have a lot of operations in. We also continued with the localization of our front loaders in Brazil, entering the Brazilian market with our agricultural business, also a big step after the acquisition of Crenlo do Brasil last year, which is now Joost Agriculture and Construction South America. So there we're also expanding the portfolio and adding the capability to serve our global OEM agricultural customers. Also in North America we were able to consolidate our sites in Michigan to further strengthen our profitability in North America, have even more reliable operations to solidify the great market position we have especially on trailer components in North America. Here in China, Ningbo, not far from here, about 150 kilometers from here, we used to have two plants, one where we produce loaders and one where we produced the couplings from LHLift. We have consolidated that plant and we've now moved everything into one existing manufacturing site, also enabling synergies for those components. And last but not least, we've not only worked on existing business, we've also invested in future business. We are accelerating our R&D roadmap with the help of third parties of very innovative industry players like Trello Dynamics and Fairlight in order to be able to accelerate the change and the transformation in the transport and the agricultural industry. So these were some of the highlights from an operational point of view. And as I said, despite the low market environment, we have been very active. We're very happy that we could accelerate our path to the vision that we were able to show you at the Capital Markets Day. Looking at the financial highlights in Q3, as I mentioned, the market was much softer as in the previous year. I'll give you a bit more detail on that. Our sales came in at 246 million euros for the third quarter and that had a contribution included of about 14 million of the M&As that we have closed last year in September. Our adjusted EBIT at 27 million and the margin remained at a fairly positive level of 10.8% despite a big decline in sales, which I think is quite a positive note. Also free cash flow, we are very happy with, continue to grow. And we were reaching 83 million in the nine months period of 2024. And therefore, our leverage remained at one times EBITDA, even despite the investments that we had in Trader Dynamics. And Oliver will give you a bit more detail in his presentation about that. Adjusted earnings per share were €4.04 for the nine-month period in 2024 and the adjusted net earnings to sales ratio is at 7.1% for the same period. We had adjusted our outlook about five years ago based on the new numbers that we received from our global OEMs. Today we confirm that outlook. We expect our sales to come in at about 50% below last year, and our EBIT margin will be in the corridor between 10.5% and 11%. So let's look briefly at the market environment, as I've already mentioned. If you go to the next slide, please. The markets were quite weak in Q3, especially if you compare it to previous year. For Europe, the track market was about 20% lower, trader market 15% lower, tractor market 20% lower. We came in 17% below previous year, so we're more or less following the market. that we have in these periods. There may also be a slight price effect where we see due to the lower material costs that the price influence also has a little negative. So I think very logical developments in that market environment. North America, we are, as I mentioned, very exposed to traders. We are very strong on the trader components. The trader market plunged in the Q3 with a minus of 35%, truck market at minus 13% and agricultural components at 18%. We came in with 30% lower sales for North America. uh but still at the very positive result out of this um and oliver will also give you a bit more detail on that asia pacific africa market not hit as much as in the other areas we are at minus 10 minus 12 and also minus 12 for the tractor market and we more or less also here follow that development and the markets in India have come in especially week after the election so we think India will recover but India has had a slow quarter three because of the effect of the elections that happened earlier this year. With that, I would like to hand over to Oliver to explain a little more in detail the financial numbers for Q3.

speaker
Oliver
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, hello and welcome here from my side to the audience out of Neu-Isenburg. Let's jump into the numbers and as always start with the regional segments first before we come back to the group again and let's focus commentary-wise on the quarter-over-quarter development. As you already described, markets in Europe have been weak in Q3, more than anticipated before, especially the truck demand remained weaker and softer in Q3. We are down from 154 down to 140 in terms of sales, which is reported-wise minus 9.2%. And organically minus almost 17%. The demand also for the agricultural business has still been low, although that we see that the inventory levels at the dealers have come down, but it's not the case that we see a recovery here yet. The consolidation of Yaxa and LH Lift, you might remember we consolidated them 1st of September last year, so there is still an inorganic effect in those numbers of roughly 13 million for the region Europe. And this is why we have the difference between the organic and inorganic of around 7% points. And with regards to sales, there is no much FX impact in those Q3 numbers. So all in all, a very soft market in quarter three, which you also then see in our EBIT development that has come down from 13.4 million in the quarter last year. to 7.1, reflecting an EBIT margin now at 5.1%, which is in line more or less with the margin that we have achieved in the second quarter of this year. Nevertheless, you can see that's a huge drop versus prior year third quarter. And as we always commute, we are struggling at the moment with the high proportion of fixed costs and then the volume effect out of the lower sales jeopardizing the margin here in Europe. We see this also with a lower utilization in our European plants. We are acting here with short-time work, shift of projects and so on and so forth to lower the effect from the volume. Nevertheless, the EBIT dropped as described out here. All in all, the cost takeout program, I think, is working well. Nevertheless, we also are already preparing for 2025. We see that some cost measures and structural measures have to continue, but we might come to that a little bit later again. So that's all in a nutshell. Europe, challenging environment, but I think we have stabilized the development here, especially versus the last quarter, and are quite confident that we can continue on that level. Then let's move to North America. Already I mentioned a bit, so very strong profitability despite the sharp sales decline. Organically and inorganically it's almost 30% down in the third quarter from 86 million euros down to 60 million euros. And this is especially because, as Joachim showed, the trailer business is still really suffering. Last year's quarter was still pushed up by pent up demand. And so we see this sharp decline here. Also, what we see is a strong decline in compact loader market still ongoing, like in the first half year of this year. We see here and there that first customers are preparing for, let's say, a recovery. We see this because contracts are awarded to us, but it's nothing for the short-term order book. It's more a long-term strategic direction, which is in favor for us. So we should here benefit from gaining market share on a mid-term range. But again, at the moment, no tailwind here. There is a positive effect from recovering demand step by step for premium loaders. You also see that in the mix effect and the EBIT profitability of the region. That's helping a lot. We are earning much more money when we sell premium loaders than compact loaders. And that's one big reason of the boost of profitability in terms of margin in the third quarter here in the region. some small FX headwind but nothing to be really worried about and then when we look onto the EBIT that has been slightly declined only from 8.7 down to 7.7 million in the region means EBIT margin has increased from 10% last year third quarter up to 13% and this is predominantly for three reasons. The one is, as I mentioned, a strong positive favorable mix in our products, especially also in the agricultural segment. Then the relatively strength of the aftermarket support the third quarter. And also what we see, what Joachim described is we have concluded a site consolidation in Michigan that has been prepared over the last six months and has now started to contribute in our numbers here with higher efficiency in production costs. So all in all, despite the sales challenges that we have here in the region are a very profitable development and we are really proud of the performance of the region and the management there. Then let's go to Asia-Pacific Africa. The demand itself remains what we would label robust, although organically it's down minus 12%. This is to one reason affected by India. India, you know, there was a big election in the first half of the year and everyone expected that the second semester of 2024 we will see a strong recovery. That seems to take a little bit longer, that recovery, than everyone expected. It's also affecting our transport business in India. And also what we see is that the trailer business in South Africa has started to suffer a little bit. On the other side, what we see is positive effects from Australia and New Zealand, typically regions and countries in the oyster universe with high margins. That's one reason also why the margin you see that in the lower section of the chart is well underway. And also the Chinese export business is still supporting somehow our development as we are strong with customers that benefiting at the moment in China from export business. If we look on the EBIT, that has slightly increased in absolute terms from 9.7 to 10.0. Margin-wise, then strong increase by 3.4 basis points up to 21.3%. And as I said, there is a strong positive mix, not in terms of products, more in terms of region, mining business, and supported by growth in Australia. And on the other side, our agriculture business in Chennai, although it's softening a bit in the second semester, is still supporting the development versus last year as the ramp up goes on there. So that's in a nutshell the three regions. If we sum this up to the group, What we see is, as you described, sales are down to 246, which is an organic decrease by more or less exactly minus 20%, driven by the transport softening in both Europe and North America. And also it's the case that the agricultural loader business has started to stabilize, but it's not supporting a strong recovery at the moment. If you look on the business lines itself, you see business line transports in the quarter minus 23% and the business line agriculture plus 19%. But that plus 19% is driven by the inorganic effect of the consolidation of Yaksa and LH Lift in those numbers versus last year's third quarter. If you extract that, the organic decline in agricultural business is minus 5.2%. So that's what we see is a stabilization slightly, but still not a recovery on an organic comparable basis. And if we go into the profitability, EBIT Absolute Wise has dropped from 33.4 down to 26.5, reflecting a slight margin decrease from 11.4 last year, third quarter down to 10.8%, which we believe is still a very strong performance despite all the challenges, especially that we have in the transport business in the third quarter. We see that still for sure the aftermarket business is a resilient business in supporting both business lines. We are definitely benefiting from the very positive development in terms of profitability in North America. And we believe that that's a sustainable one. And also the strict cost control that we have been implemented at the moment in Europe for sure is stabilizing the margin development on top. So that's with regards to our sales and EBIT. If we then go further regarding our adjusted net income and adjusted EPS bridge, You see, starting from the left, reported net income for the first nine months is 43 million. If we then add back taxes and finance results, we come up with a reported EBIT of 71 million for the first nine months. And then doing our adjustments for PPA and some other exceptionals, which are predominantly EBIT. restructuring costs for the relocations that we have mentioned and partially also already a little bit of the M&A activity, although that the main M&A activity expenses for the Hüver acquisition will take place in the fourth quarter. We then end up with an adjusted EBIT of 95, reflecting then an adjusted EPS if we deduct again the adjusted finance result and adjusted tax rate of 4.4 for the first nine months, which is, versus sales, still an adjusted net earnings ratio of 7.1%. for the first nine months if you compare that to the first nine months of last year there we were at around 8.1 percent so um despite an organic sales decline of 20 percent we are really managing still a very a very nice adjusted net earnings ratio um and as you know um after the capital market or with the capital markets day as you have mentioned We have also adjusted our dividend policy and will link that in future to the adjusted net earnings. So that should show shareholder value creation despite a very cyclical and challenging development. So if we then go please to the development of our important KPIs regarding ROSI equity ratio and leverage development. ROSI has been affected a little bit by the lower EBIT, but still stays strong at around 19%. Equity ratio has increased by the net income effect over the last months up to almost now 40%. And despite translation effects in the balance sheet, And this for sure helps us now going forward also to digest the Hüver acquisition in probably the first quarter of 2025 as we go in that transaction with a very strong balance sheet. Leverage, Joachim already mentioned briefly, stays at around 1.0. So more or less the same level like end of last year, despite certain big payments and payouts that we had this year. You remember the payments that we had to do for the earn out for ALO, the dividend payment in May, but also now here in the third quarter, our investment in Trailer Dynamics with 50 million all in all, almost 60 million that we digested very successfully with the strong free cash flow that we probably show on the next slide. Free cash flow for the first nine months at 83.4 million, translating into a conversion rate of 1.4. You know, our goal is to stay above 1.0. I think so far we are well underway. Let's look into quarter four. We'll be here in the challenge. Nevertheless, we still have some room regarding working capital to achieve here our goals that we have for the year. CapEx with 21.7 million in spending, excluding M&As, so especially the trailer dynamics topic is around 2.6% and then with that fully in line with the guidance that we issued for the year and also in line with the guidance that we issued on the capital markets day. because of the sales decline this year and you know our revised guidance with plus minus 2.5 percent points plus or minus the 15 percent that we issued five weeks ago might be the case that technically if we are still because we are still investing here and there in our future that the final capex ratio might go up to the 2.9 percent almost three percent with the full year numbers but let's see And networking capital ratio still very favorable below 18% with 17.7%. That's basically two effects here. One is for sure with the business decline accounts receivable go down. And on top, we are doing on an opportunistic basis, wherever it makes sense from an interest expenses point of view, some factoring. And also inventories have come down versus end of last year or September 2023 balance. So supporting the free cash flow pretty much. Then I think that's it from my side. And I will hand over to Joachim for our closing outlook.

speaker
Joachim Duhr
Chief Executive Officer

yeah thank you oliver yeah let's see how we expect the markets to close for this year 2024 and if you look at this slide you will see a few changes versus the slide that you've seen in august major changes on the negative side are trucks europe are now expected to close lower than initially thought in mid-year of this year Same is true for traders in North America, where you now see minus 25 to minus 30%. And in the Asia Pacific region, mainly because of the impact of the India actions, as mentioned, slightly lower than initially expected in the first half of this year. So this will be most likely the outcome of this year. It is somewhat of a challenging market environment with these big declines. But I think as a company, we're able to respond quite professional to all of these adjustments. And as you've seen in the results that Oliver presented and also in our outlook, I think we're using this market decline to also improve some of the structural points and to build for the future. So what is the new outlook? Just repeating what we have more or less announced five weeks ago. We expect sales to be down 15% year over year within a range of 2.5% points up or down. Last year, we were at 1.25 billion in sales. The adjusted EBIT will follow more or less the sales development, and we expect the adjusted EBIT margin to be in the range between 10.5% and 11%, as we've announced recently. our capex as usual we try to stay and we will end this year also between two and a half and 2.9 of sales and working capital is expected and oliver just mentioned that already is expected to be below 19 of sales uh last year we were able to end the year at 18 so we will not be far from that range Let's go to the next slide where I show a little more detail on where we stand with the Hiba deal. As you all know, and as we have announced, we signed the SBA sales and purchasing agreement on October 14th of this year. The financing is secured with what we consider very exact conditions and with a timeframe of 24 months. So we are in a quite comfortable refinancing situation. to digest that deal. We have initiated the merger control findings in October and we expect to get the responses back beginning of next year so that we can close in Q1 of 2025. Both parties are looking forward to the PMI work and each party is doing what they can in order to prepare for that. We are working in teams on some financial work streams for the rest. Each party is doing their preparation so that we can hit the road running when we get the approval from the virtual control Overall, there's a lot of positive feedback from customers on this future combination. It's an industrial logic that is compelling to most of our customers. They're looking forward to an even stronger Yoast Group being able to follow them globally and increasing the coverage and the customer support. And also for our employees, I think there's a lot of good opportunities for future growth in that combination. So we're still very positive about the deal and cap rate to start the integration work in Q1 of 2025. So to summarize the call, the acquisition of EVA is a key milestone in our mid-term growth targets that we have announced in the capital market days and you can look back at the numbers but it's very simple. We will be beyond 2 billion in sales euros and we expect the earnings per shares to be beyond the 10 euros per share on an adjusted EBIT basis. Also, we were able to further improve our working capital and our operational excellence, which we can see in the strong free cash flow that we were able to generate and maintain our leverage at the 1.2 zero level for the time being. It's all before closing, obviously. Our profitability was strengthened through the consolidation of our production plants in China, here in Ningbo, and also in North America. The local teams are doing an excellent job in driving the synergies from the previous M&As that we've done. here in China, but also synergies that are built and generated through the existing business as we're doing it in North America. We're able to generate strong shareholder value with a return on capital employed of 90%, the cash conversion rate of 1.4 and adjusted earnings per share of four euros and four cents in the first nine months of this year. And we are using the current market environment to use our flexibility on the one hand to continue to generate strong financial results, but also to strengthen our market positioning and to continue to improve the group's business resilience in all regions. So with that, I'm closing the presentation and I'm looking forward to receive your questions.

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