Kbc Group Sa Unsp/Adr

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the conference call of KBC Group. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kurt de Bans, Investor Relations General Manager. Mr. de Bans, over to you.

Thank you, operator. A very good morning to all of you from the headquarters of KBC in Brussels, and welcome to the KBC conference call. Today is Thursday, November 7th, 2024, and we are hosting the conference call on the third quarter results of KDC. As usual, we have Ioan Theijs, Group CEO with us, as well as Group CFO Bartel Pulings, and they will both elaborate on the results and add some additional insight. As such, it's my pleasure to give the floor to our CEO, Ioan Theijs, who will quickly run you through the presentation.

Thank you very much, Kirsten. Also from my side, a warm welcome on the announcement of the third quarter results 2024. We will do that as usual via the slides which are at your disposal. Starting with the highlights, well, we posted an excellent result of €868 million, which is indeed once again an expression of the commercial machine firing on all its cylinders. All countries have contributed very well. And also what is for sure something which you have on the mind, what happens with the recovery of the state note monies in Belgium? Well, we, as you remember, we had an outflow of 5.7 billion. We recuperated 6.5 billion of our customer monies, which means that in excess of 0.8 billion came on top. And that is an expression how we have positioned ourselves in the market. And that is not only true for Belgium, but in essence for all of our markets in the group. Consequently, we see that our net interest income has risen 1%, that we have been able to sell more customer loans than before, and that we have been able to increase our fee business significantly as our insurance business as well. In terms of where we are with the sales in our life insurance business, also there we had a very strong increase over the quarter and over the year. In terms of outflowing monies, we have seen a one-off, which is a gain on a participation in an associated company of 79 million euro. But on the other hand, costs are under control. There is an uptake of our cost of 6%, but it's perfectly aligned with the guidance given earlier. And we have seen good results on the insurance side, despite the fact that natural catastrophes in the form of windstorms, but also floodings in Central Europe called Boris, have kicked in quite significantly. Impairments are lower than previous quarter or in that perspective, also perfectly under control. And as a summary of all these numbers, the solvency ratio of KBC has further improved as has done the liquidity position. We therefore also feel very confident to announce again, fully in line with our dividend policy that we are going to pay out an interim dividend of one euro per share on the 14th of November of this year. To express some elements in terms of more relative numbers, you can see that on the right-hand side of the slide, the results are translated in return of equity of roughly 14%. Let me go into other slides. First of all, we are very proud also to flag that KVC has been nominated by an external part of SEER partners as having the best performing mobile banking app globally, and we are pretty proud on this one. It's the second time that we have the honor to have won this prize, and it also translates all the efforts and all the results which KVG has put into and has achieved by using technology, amongst others AI technology, group-wide. The good news about winning this prize is also that it translates in our results. We have in the meanwhile more than 5 million of our customers which have been in contact with Kate and start to use it. We do see that what they are doing is paying also off in terms of our productivity we do have a productivity gain of one to one and a half percent linked to all the usage of that technology but what is more imminent is that if you only look at kate then we see that 52 messages are pushed to kate to our customers that kate is in itself able to sell 236 000 products to our customers fully independently in the last 12 months and this is a exponentially growing curve, and that if you would calculate this in terms of customers interacting with Kate, and you would calculate it in a kind of conservative way, then we are roughly around 300 people where Kate is doing the equivalent work off. What about the split bank and insurance? Well, it's an 88, 12% split, which is more or less in line with what we have seen in the longer term average. So let me skip over that. And let me indeed also go over the next slide, which is stressing again that we are doing everything what is in the green is amongst the better part of the peloton on sustainability, on solvency, on profitability, but also on digitization. In terms of one-offs, I already mentioned a one-off of 79 million euro because of the share of results in an associated company. The company is in Belgium Payment Fintech. which is giving us an extra surplus value of 79 million euro. All the rest are actually tiny amounts and therefore let me skip over it and go immediately to things which are more important, that is net interest income. First of all, KBC, as you know, is a very well diversified institution. Net interest income is therefore only 50% of our total income. But that 50% has further increased over the quarter with 1%, despite the fact that inflation-linked bonds impact this quarter was negative minus 23 million euro. So despite this drawback, we have been able to outperform our previous quarters and also same quarter last year in a significant manner, and this is mainly the result of higher commercial transformation results. As we already indicated on earlier calls, the hedging strategy of KBC allows us to indeed be very confident that our transformation result will continue to increase going forward, despite the fact that rate cuts are kicking in. Next to that, we also see that the lending income has grown further. In this perspective is mainly driven by volume growth. We have been growing 1% on the quarter and 5% on the year. By the way, this is also a confirmation that we are very confident we will achieve the 4%, the corrected and the amended growth level on year basis 4% that we will definitely achieve that by year end. Today, we are year to date at 3.25% of that loan growth. But also, I mean, in terms of the margin, it's quite clear that, and it depends from country to country. So in certain countries, we do see margin increasing, but in general, that is pressure, commercial pressure on the margins, on the lending business. Consequently, also because of the fact that the interest bearing assets have increased significantly with more than 3 billion euros the net interest margin has dropped. On the slide, you can see two points, but in reality is a bit more than 1.5 basis points, sorry, and now stands at 208 basis points. Let me come back to the net interest income. I already mentioned the inflationary bonds. We are still very confident that what we guided for will be reached in the fourth quarter as well. And all the rest are more smaller numbers Therefore, let me not go into the detail and also let me skip the year-on-year difference. But all in all, this result on the net interest income is something we are very confident to see evolving in the same way in the next coming quarters. Sorry, before I go to fee and commission, what about the core customer money? So as a matter of fact, What about the impact also of the Belgian state note? In total, for the entire group, we saw this quarter a very strong 8.7 billion inflow of core monies. This is translated as a shift on, in essence, current account savings of roughly 1 billion euro, which is flowing in in two types of products. First of all, mainly the term deposits on the one hand and savings certificates on the other hand. in total 7.6 billion, but also we have seen a very strong increase of the net inflow on the asset management and life insurance product mutual funds, which is translated in an extra inflow in this quarter only of 2.1 billion. So it sums up to a whopping 8.7 billion. And if you then make the calculation over nine months of this year, you come to the conclusion that the custom money dynamic is a positive of 14.4 billion in this year. Let me highlight as well that over nine months we were able to even, despite the commercial pressure, we were able to increase the volumes on our current and our saving accounts with 0.4 billion, which is better than what we have anticipated for the beginning of the year in terms of shifts. When I speak about these numbers in the third quarter, obviously they are influenced by the recuperation of the maturing 22 billion state note in September in Belgium. You can see that on slide eight. And, well, the result for KBC is, in terms of volume, absolutely excellent. So we had an outflow of 5.7 billion. We recuperated 6.5 billion euro, which means that we have been able to collect 0.8 billion more than what we have seen in an outflow a year ago. split up of that six and a half billion is on on slide eight six billion went into term deposits 1.2 billion and saving certificates we had shift in our current saving accounts and we that that shift went partly into other funds or other friends like asset management products but also life insurance contracts and sort likes so the total is six and a half billion now this also means Two things. First of all, giving the very fierce competition which happened during that period. And as you know, KBC, or perhaps you don't know, therefore let me highlight it. KBC only participated in this competition during 14 days, whereas some of our peers were collecting over a month their funds. So the negative impact, given the fierce competition of the total action in September, is going to be €87 million, of which €26 million in 2024, that means roughly three and a half months, and the impact in 2025 is €61 million. The €61 million, for good understanding, will be partially offset by a couple of other things, We have summed up a list of potential things. Be aware that given the fact that we have collected more than roughly $6.5 billion of deposits, that it will have a positive impact on our funding needs in 2025. It will clearly also pay off in terms of our fee and commission income. And then last but not least, also on the maturity date of the state note in 2025, There, obviously, the things were fundamentally different because we will be in a completely different rate environment by that date. Let me go to fee and commission. On page 9, here again, a very solid result. Once again, we have seen an increase of the fee and commission business generated through the banking services and then the asset management services with €18 million. There is 3% extra. of which 3% is also the evolution of our asset management services. The asset management services are driven by, in essence, two things. Of course, the good market performance, but clearly also the fact that over the year, we have seen already a strong increase in, as you know, in terms of asset management margins, sorry, asset management fees that is built upon the stock as well. In terms of the net inflow, I already mentioned we had a very strong inflow this quarter 2.1 billion on the quarter if I compare that with the previous quarter that is 1.4 billion more if I compare that with the same quarter last year that is even 1 billion more in total we are now at 4.6 billion inflow of our funds and that is absolutely a record as a matter of fact when we had the budgeted this year we did not budget for 4.6 for the full year So in this perspective, it is even better than the position of last year, which was a record result. It also translates in gross sales, which are also at record highs, 3.4 billion. That's significantly better than what we have seen in the same period last year. Let me go to the other contributing elements. Banking services are up significantly as well. This is mainly triggered by payment services, payment services which are seasonally bound. And given the composition of third quarter, which is intrinsically at least two months holiday period, it is no surprise that they are performing very well. In terms of the asset under management, we now stand at $269 billion. This is 18% more year on year, just to express what I just said. In terms of insurance business, well, insurance business has grown 8% over the year. which is the contribution in Belgium 6% and more than 10% in the Central European countries, so both have known a very solid growth. The combined ratio stands at 89%, and that is negatively influenced by roughly 2%, given the impact of natural catastrophes. For good understanding, the natural catastrophes, I mean in essence the storm Boris in Central Europe, it has had a very devastating impact. There are many casualties. And on top of that, we have seen significant damages to infrastructure and housing. For us, it translated in a cost price of 77 million euro gross in terms of net impacts. So after reinsurance, we are talking about 33 million euro pre-tax only for storm borders. If I take into account all wind storms, including the ones in Belgium and others in Central Europe, then it is quite clear that the natural catastrophes are a significant part of our business on the insurance side 49 million euro after reinsurance total impact in this quarter in terms of the life insurance sales it can be very brief excellent quarter much better than previous quarter much better than last year same period 28% up respectively 80% up and this is driven by commercial campaigns which we have followed in this quarter and traditionally you know when we do commercial campaigns on these matters, then it has a positive impact on the result. In the meanwhile, unit link stands for 51% of the total production, whereas interest guaranteed rates stand in 42%. The difference balance between 100% of the numbers I just mentioned are hybrid products. What about the financial instruments and fair value, super volatile P&L line? As you know, this quarter there is a difference of 45 million euro with previous quarter. mainly driven by the negative credit funding and market value adjustments, which are the result of a decrease in the Euro and the Czech Runa rates. And, you know, this is, I think, the most important part I could say about this. The other one, which is also quite important, that is the dealing room result has performed a little bit better despite difficult circumstances, and it has contributed not substantially more, but €1 million at least better. Net order income, slightly lower than the run rate of 50 million euro now stands at 45 million euro. So let's consider this to be normal and let's go to more important P&L lines that is the cost side. KBC has seen an increase of their costs of 6% on the year basis, which is mainly driven by traditional stocks. So we have invested, we are investing significant amounts in ICT and we have beefed up those investments a little bit more in third quarter. You have the inflation which kicks in and which is marked amongst others in Belgium. of an indexation of wages in the second quarter, which are for the first time in the results in the third quarter, and we do see higher facility expenses and higher depreciation. That is offset by a decrease of lower FTEs, but of course not in total. In this perspective, we need to understand that over a period of nine months, costs are flattish despite the inflation. So we are perfectly in line with our guidance. and we are perfectly in line with the longer term targets which we have put on this. Cost income ratio stands at 43% without bank taxes and that is also perfectly in line with the cost income ratio of last year despite the whopping inflation as you know. Certainties in life, bank taxes continue to go up. This time this is mainly triggered by an intervention of the Hungarian authorities asking us 37 million euro more bank taxes as a matter of fact This is even a mitigated number. Perhaps you remember from the second quarter announcement that there were a couple of mitigating actions. Well, we have taken those into action and therefore we brought down the impact of the Hungarian bank taxes by buying Hungarian government bonds. In this perspective, 37 million euro is the end result. 9 million euro extra in Slovakia and then 1 million in Czech Republic sums it up to 47 million euro. Bank taxes are then explicitly mentioned on page 13 in all detail. It is significant, 13% of our total OPEX, and therefore, I mean, no further comment. On the next page, we have the asset impairments. Well, the good news is that the assets are, the total impairments are 69 million euro, which is split up in two parts, an impairment in essence on software, 7 million euro, and the real impairments on loans are €61 million. Now, that €61 million comes in two parts. First of all, €132 million impairments on the lending book, but in that €130 million we took a deliberate impairment on old non-performing loans, amongst others pushed also by the ECB, which is pushing for this already for several years with all the banks, not only KBC, this is a common denominator and consequence of taking 54 million euro which in essence two files is giving us a release of four basis points potential increase on our pillar two requirement going forward so that remains stable so it shifts from one side to the other total remains then that we have roughly let's say 78 million euro of impairments which are clearly in line with what we have seen in previous quarters. The credit cost ratio consequently, sorry, I forgot to mention one thing, 71 million euro was released out of the buffer of geographically emerging risks, which means that the buffer still holds at 168 million euro of provisions. If you translate that in credit cost ratio, the credit cost ratio stands at 10 basis points all in, stands at 16 basis points if you exclude the ECL buffer, which is indeed significantly better than the longer term guidance, than the guidance which we have given, including the longer term numbers on this perspective. Impaired loans stand at 2.1%. If you use the EBA definition, it stands at 1.56%, which is significantly lower than the European average. Now, all the other numbers are then also related to the, no, let me first go into the CD1 numbers. So in terms of the capital position of KBC, we stand at 15.2%, which is a further improvement of our previous number with one basis points. The building blocks I mentioned there on the slides, in essence, the risk-weighted assets have been creeping up in essence because of volume growth on the lending business side. In terms of buffers, we are with an OCR at 11.8%, giving us a buffer of 4.4% and an MDA buffer of 4.1% coming out of an MDA ratio of 11.1%. In terms of solvency and leverage ratio, well, we are at a leverage ratio of 5.7%, which is a slight increase compared to previous quarter, mainly driven by the fact that we lowered our cash and cash balances with central banks. we have a liquidity ratio which stands solidly above the requirements, 159% in the short-term and 142% in the mid-term liquidity ratios. And it's obviously a position of the insurance company is just slightly below 200%, which is mainly triggered by a widening of the spreads in government bonds area. And given the fact that KBC is investing mainly in its sovereigns, of the home countries, there is not an adjustment or not a full adjustment by the volatility adjustment because that is investing on the European basis and that is not necessarily concentrated in Belgium and amongst others, the Czech Republic. Anyway, looking forward, well, we do see that the third quarter was known by a moderate growth of 0.4% which comes in total for a full year on a growth of roughly 1% in the Eurozone. Well, we are well positioned because the Eurozone is split up in two parts. Clearly, that is Western Europe hovering around that 1%, whereas in Central Europe, the growth ratios are higher, most of the time at least 1% higher. So in that perspective, you also see that over 2025, same evolution can be expected. Growth levels for 2025 roughly around 1%. 1.1% in Western Europe, and then in Central Europe at least 100 basis points higher. For certain countries like Hungary, for instance, Czech Republic, we expect even 1.5% higher. On slides 19 and 20, first of all 19, the guidance, well, we have stated that our numbers would be roughly 5.5 ballpark, On the previous occasion, we said that given the potential impact of the state node, we would expect that midpoint 5.5 minus the impact of the state node would lead us that a fully net interest income would be more toward the lower end of the range. Well, today, we are confirming our guidance that we will easily reach the 5.5 midpoint as a matter of fact. giving the impact of the state node, giving the strong evolution of our transformation result and the continuous strong performance on the lending side, we are very confident to say that we will easily reach the 5.5 billion going forward. As a matter of fact, all the other elements which are on the slide in terms of guidance will be achieved. And we can say that officially now, even at the end of the third quarter, will be easily achieved going forward by year end. The longer-term guidance we don't provide yet with one small detail that is on the net interest income giving the evolution of the transformation result and our lending book giving the expectations which we have going forward on GDP. We are quite confident that for 2025 on the net interest income side we will come with a net interest income of let's say roughly 5.6 billion and I would add to that at least. The further detail on this matter will be given, of course, at the back of the fourth quarter results announcement, because we are in the middle of the process of our budget exercise, and that budget exercise will be concluded in December. And we will update you more, not only on 25, but also 26 and 27 going forward at the end of the fourth quarter, at the end of the announcement of the fourth quarter results. I would end with Basel IV. We have conducted a full review of the Basel IV impact, where more and more details come to the surface now. We have used the numbers of the second quarter of 2024, compared them also with the second quarter of 2023, which was the previous calculation. Well, the situation remains more or less stable. You have here and there a little bit of small shifts, because we now have more detail. on all parameters which are replacing proxies which we used in the previous calculation. And let me summarize it, the total impact is eight and a half billion of risk-related assets fully loaded, of which five billion is at the very end of the tail, so in 2033, it's related to the output floor, and to be very bold, that's a long time to go, so it will be possible to take a lot of mitigating actions in order to mitigate the impact of that output floor the first time, the first time impact, first time impact is the, sorry, the first time application impact is roughly one billion and then over the period 26, 20, 33, we'll see two and a half billion impact going forward. So more or less in line with what we announced earlier, but now with more detail and with more certainty. I will skip the entire part of the countries and I'll give back the floor to Kurt will guide us through your questions. Thank you, Johan.

I open the floor now for questions. Please restrict the number of questions to two to allow for a maximum number of people to raise questions. Thank you.

Thank you. The floor is now open to questions. If you have a question or comments, please press star followed by one on your touchtone telephone at this time. If at any point your question is answered, you may exit the queue by pressing star two. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. Please hold while we pause for questions. Thank you. We will take our first questions from Julia Miyoto from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one on slide seven. clearly this was very impacted by the state bond. How has that evolved in October? I would hope that you have seen the mix shift stabilizing or even improving with current accounts improving. And how do you see it going forward? So can we really say, okay, this was a one-off or is there further, you know, competition and pressure in the market? And then my second question regarding this storm, so this is something that will repeat in the future, I guess, given climate change. So how quickly can you adjust the premia to factor in, yeah, the increased probability of this type of event?

Thank you. Thanks, Giulia, for your questions.

Let me ask the first one. So what we have seen in the second quarter already and then in the third quarter it was repeated that in most countries, definitely in the non-Euro countries, that because of the rate cuts we do see term deposits flowing back to current accounts and saving accounts. And this was an evolution which we already mentioned in the second quarter and which we have seen in the third quarter. Now for Belgium it is indeed And therefore, I mean, you already pointed to that. In Belgium, of course, it's impacted because of the state note, which is a completely different dynamic, you know, what happened in Belgium. So in all the other countries, I would say the evolution of ant rate cuts trigger the event that term deposits are flowing back to current accounts, saving accounts is confirmed in this quarter. And therefore, we are pretty confident that this is going to go also in the same way in the quarters to come. because we expect more rate cuts to come, not only in the non-Euro countries, but surely also in the Eurozone.

Good morning. As far as your second question is concerned, which I understand is how we'll be able to adjust the premiums following the storms. Well, we will have seen that basically our... Gross premium in non-life has increased by 8% or 44 million over the year, or year on year. And this in all countries and also in all asset classes. But more importantly, both driven by increase in tariffs and increase in volumes. So we are able to pass through the, indeed, the cost to the customer. Once a year. Yes, of course, once a year.

Thank you.

Thank you. We will take our next questions from Fakuhar Murray from Autonomous. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good morning, all. Just two questions, if I may. Firstly, I wondered if you could give us an update on how you've seen the competitive dynamic in Belgium develop so far in 4Q following on from the stats bond. That's both on deposits and actually mortgages, and particularly whether you've seen any moves on the core deposit rate that may have surprised you. Secondly, a more techie question on the insurance side. Obviously, 3Q saw a significant fall in interest rates, and I'm conscious that can kick through some volatility under IFRS 17 in non-life. So please can you just run through the impact of lower rates on the current year discounting in 3Q, and if possible, what we might reasonably expect in 4Q?

Thanks. Thanks, Farquhar, for your question.

Well, the first one is a very intriguing one. Of course, competition is something which is very volatile and which is changing, you know, could change every day. What we do see is, first of all, in the third quarter, these are facts that KBC was able to attract more monies than we have seen losing in September 2023 in terms of the state note. So this is the first element. What is crucial to understand is we closed our commercial campaign 14 days before others did. The main two competitors in this perspective, ING and Beltius, continue longer, which shows that KBC is indeed having a commercial power, which is very significant in the Beltian market. Going forward, we expect this to happen in the same way, because in that perspective, also on the lending side, you can clearly see that KBC has been able to to build its market share, to build its growth also in the Belgian market. Now if I broaden the perspective a bit further to other geographical areas, we can see clearly in the third quarter the same elements which I just depicted for the Belgian market in the Central European market. So we are growing our market share in general in most of our countries. Here and there you have a little bit of a detail depending on the product, depending on the country, but in essence we are able to further build our market share in terms of lending, in terms of deposits, but also in terms of other products in general. Well, on your second question, if I understand well your question, because I can interpret it in different ways. First of all, the interest rates environment has an impact on several parts, of course. We do see an impact of interest rates on our CSM, for instance, commercial service margin, which is intrinsically calculated on the back of evolving interest rates and so on and so forth and has an impact on best estimates as well, as you know. So in that perspective, I can give to you that our CSM margin stands solidly at 16.2%, 16.3%, sorry, which is in line with what we have seen in the previous quarter, besides the fact that last quarter we had a one-off impact for something which is a model change, and therefore I don't take it into account. Other elements in terms of evolution of interest rates have no immediate impact on the non-life business, for sure not. And definitely what I just said on the operational business on the live site is translated by the CSM. Okay. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. We will take our next questions from Benoit Petrac from Kepler Schumpel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

So the first question is on the 5.6 billion NI target for 2025. So if my math are correct, so 5.5 billion will imply 1360 million on NI for Q4, which is analyzed 5.4 billion, actually above 5.4 billion. Could you walk us through the main moving parts for an improvement of roughly 150 million in 2025 on NI? And could you maybe also detail how much positive you expect from the replicating portfolio in 2025 versus 2024 and also in 2026 versus 2025? That would be extremely useful. And then the second question is on the 87 million guidance. Back of the envelope, I get to roughly 50% of the impact coming from the inflow in term deposits and 50% of that amount coming from outflows on current accounts. So just wanted to check that with you. I'm asking because I wanted to check whether you expect basically a reversal in the fourth quarter, 25, of this negative effect, and how much you expect from the 87 to be recovered in 26. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Bouboumoua, for your questions. Let me start with the answer, and Basel will jump in. So on the guidance, first of all for 24 and then afterwards for 25 and six and 27 as you requested. Well, on the 5.6 correction of the guidance for 25, well, let me start with 24. What we have seen in 24 is first of all, very solid performance of our transformation result. You have a couple of things which have influenced this negatively this quarter and that has to do with, in essence, inflationary bonds. And second thing, the first impact of the state note via two weeks. For 24 last quarter, the impact of the state note will be more significant. In total, for the full year, the impact was 26 million euros as we have indicated in the presentation. But, given the strong performance of the transformation result, given the solid performance on the lending side, we are very confident indeed to give the guidance of 5.5, more than 5.5 in 2024. This is crucial to understand why we are very confident to give a guidance of 5.6 billion, at least in 2025, because the transformation result is based indeed on a replicating portfolio influenced by two things. First of all, how you have hatched the position. We have indicated that earlier. that we have taken a longer stance at the right moment. And the second thing on the shifts between current accounts, saving accounts, and term deposits. Now for 2025, given the fact that the vast majority is now locked in in term deposits, we don't see those current accounts, saving accounts, term deposits shifts happening to the same extent that we have seen them in 2024. That's what I already answered to Julia earlier in this call. And the second thing is Given also the fact that rate cuts are going to happen, we do see, like in other countries, that shifts are stopping anyway. So on top of that, as of September next year, we have a maturity of the 6.5 billion. which has come in for sure. Part of those maturities will come earlier because as you know, we have pulled in those monies on two, actually three maturity periods, six months, 12 months and 13 months. So in that perspective, that will come in into the year. And therefore we feel very confident that getting the strong transformation results, getting the continued lending growth, which we have seen this quarter and given the fact that GDP forecast is assumed to be at least at the level of 2024, Given the fact that current accounts, saving accounts, term deposit shifts are anyway mitigated by the numbers which are locked in the term deposit today, but also given the fact that rate cuts have normally a negative impact on money slowing in on term deposits, we are confident that it will be 5.6 billion next year at least. In that perspective, we are currently conducting the exercise of the budget. The reason why we don't announce it today is because we are still in the process of talking amongst others to our supervisory board. As a consequence, 26 and 27, we don't provide you any more detail today. We can't, to be honest. And then it would be too early. And then secondly, we will do that during the announcement of the fourth quarter results. That is early next year, as usual.

Okay, thank you. And as far as the second question is concerned, basically, as you know, we generated 60 billion in mainly two products in term deposits. There was one at 4% over six months and one at 3.8% over 13 months, so take that into account. You know that this came in due to the commercial action as a negative margin of roughly 80 basis points, so you can calculate what that would present over the term deposits that we generated.

Yeah, great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We now take our next questions from Tariq Alwanjad from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, and well done on the resilient number this quarter. I'll come back to NII, please, and thank you for all the moving parts. It makes a lot of sense, but there's two elements in there where I want to test a bit your conviction. The first one is on the volume growth. You'll already be growing 4% this year in what has been seen as a quite promising year with lots of optimism from the kickstart, right? We are going to a more uncertain environment, and we can see within the corporates in Germany, in France, already turning a bit more pessimistic and your economy in Belgium and Czech Republic very much linked to that. So how are you convinced that incremental actually growth can be there to sustain the more pressure coming from the low rates? And the other area is the migration to or stabilization or even quoting actually flowing back to savings and current deposits This is something we haven't observed in any jurisdiction, actually, I would say. So is this, I mean, you sound confident that this trend will continue, but how really convinced about that? And the second point is on fees. You are delivering on your 6% CAGR, even exceeding that. How much, sorry, on the insurance revenue, sorry, not the fee income. how much more upside you think you can deliver on that? Thank you.

Thanks for the questions, Tariq. Let me go for the first one. So in terms of volumes, well, the philosophy is the following. The growth this year in GDP growth in the European domain was roughly 1%, actually a little bit lower, 0.9%. And definitely you have there a split between the Western European part and the more, let's call it the Central European or Eastern European part. The expectation for next year is that it will be more or less the same, but a bit higher. So from 0.9, roughly 1%, to 1 to 1.2%. So if the philosophy is the following, on the back of what we have seen in GDP growth this year, we are able to do roughly 4%. There is no reason to believe why we, by the way, this is a track record for KBC for the last 10 years, that we achieve at least the numbers in the GDP growth. So if today 24, 0.9% GDP growth is resulting in a more or less 4% growth on the lending side, there's no reason to believe that the growth will stop next year when the GDP growth is going higher than what we see today. The second element to do that is that the split up between Western European and Eastern and Central European is in our favor, giving our positions in Central Europe. So in that perspective, the growth forecast for Central Europe is significantly higher than what we saw in 2024. So in this perspective, you know, this is on the back of those numbers. This is a quite realistic assumption. how much it is in detail, we will give you at the announcement of the quarter four results, where we then have the full detail of every country going forward. In terms of migration, I understood in your question is that, you know, we don't have any evidence yet in any kind of jurisdiction that the migration stop between current accounts, saving account, term deposits is happening. But as a matter of fact, this is not entirely correct. What we do see in, for instance, Czech Republic and in Hungary, where there, of course, are further down the line in terms of interest rate cuts. You saw that the Czech authorities, Czech National Bank, and the Magyar authorities have cut significantly their interest rates. We saw immediately that the monies which are maturing on term deposits are floating back and staying there on current accounts and saving accounts. As a matter of fact, we saw the same thing happening as well in the second quarter in Belgium, and it is confirmed that in the third quarter, be it that it is distorted by the state note in Belgium and the commercial campaign, logically by the commercial campaign, which is following that. So the evidence which we see, and we already told it on previous occasions that we used the situation in Czech Republic as a kind of a guide for what's going to happen in the Eurozone because they're advancing the Eurozone with at least six months. Well, we do see there That's something which we saw in the second quarter will be confirmed in the third quarter and therefore likely will be confirmed in quarter four and quarter one, two, and three, four of next year.

Thank you very much. Very clear. Then as far as your second question is concerned on the guidance in terms of insurance growth, well, first of all, the guidance is at least 6% year-on-year. which is definitely the floor. So indeed, we expect, as you have seen, we already have 8% cross-written premium growth on non-life and substantially more also on the life side. Now, we have always also indicated that our ambition is to grow at least in insurance, thanks to our bank insurance model, even 50% more than the market. And what we see also is that in Central Europe, in some of the countries that basically property insurance, et cetera, is not, I mean, not all people have property insurance in Central Europe, as is the case in other countries or in Western countries. So, and last but not least, I would like to also indicate that what we see so far of that growth is that we see in the Central European countries actually double-digit growth.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Kiri Vijayaraja from HSBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on the topic of M&A, you know, you're seeing other banks talking about using the Danish compromise to buy insurance asset management type of businesses. I just wondered, how do you see that from KBC's perspective? Is that something that makes sense for you? Or do you think the regulator could eventually become a bit more cautious or conservative on banks using that particular loophole? So just your thoughts on the Danish compromise and M&A. And then just quickly on the NPL backstop in Belgium, just wondering if there's some more old NPLs in the pipeline that might get caught under the backstop rules in the coming quarters. Or should we assume, if there is anything, that you'll just do some matching releases from the management overlays. You still have a decent stock of provisions there in your back pocket. So how should we think about the future impact of the MPL backstop? Thank you.

Thanks, Kiri, for your questions. Let me come back on the first one. I mean, this is a very sensible topic which you just raised. And I think what you just triggered, I think, is indeed something which we have to be very careful about. You know, the Danish Compromise has a specific purpose, and that specific purpose is how to deal with insurance integrated in banking environments. So the Danish Compromise is there for already a while, and straightforward KBC has never used it in the extreme. In that perspective, we apply how it is meant to be applied. And when I see recent evolutions, then this is perfectly possible in that context. But I don't know if this was the intention of the Danish Compromise. So if I read some of those reports or some other articles in newspapers where they start to use the Danish Compromise as a means to an end, and that is integration of pure banking and insurance, sorry, pure insurance and asset management companies within banks, not necessarily focusing on the model of bank assurance, then I think the supervisor might get nervous and might reconsider the position of the Danish compromise. So in brief, you know, we use it where it is meant for. We never leverage that and we have no intention to do so.

As far as your second question is concerned on the NPL backstop, so indeed, as Johan has been explaining, this is mainly related to old NPL files where basically the regulator is requiring banks to significantly increase their provisions on these files actually by putting the collateral behind those files at zero after seven years. If you have a question, so what we have done is we've been booking now additional provisions on mainly two major files for a total amount of €54 million in order to reduce indeed the capital end on the P2R. Do we have much more stock on this for the future? Well, that will remain limited, and we will see what we'll do in the future on to what extent we will use additional provisions to reduce the backstop.

Great. Thank you. Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sharad Kumar from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Sharaf, can I ask you, because we hardly hear you, can you speak a little bit closer to the microphone or a bit louder? Sorry, Sharaf, we don't hear you. I'm sorry. We hear you. if you were talking to us from at least somewhere in Alaska. Could you try otherwise?

Yes. Hello. Sorry. Am I audible now?

Excellent. This is excellent. Please go ahead.

Sorry for that. I just had one more question left on fees, more so asset management. Can you characterize the nature of these flows, whether these are driven by higher margin products? Also, if you could comment on the sustainability of these flows, even albeit from record levels, I suspect as rates go get lower, there is potential for a pickup. So color on that would be useful. Thank you.

So regarding the fees in our asset management business, So obviously this quarter is positively influenced by what happened on the state note, that is for sure. And we also mentioned that in the detail on page 8, that the inflow is amongst others. It is mentioned funds, we do indeed include as well insurance, but mainly it is funds. So therefore, you have a positive impact in the asset management fee business for this quarter. But nevertheless, if you look at the flow over quarter one, quarter two, and quarter three, it is a continuous given that we are able to anchor current account, saving account monies on investments in asset management products and in life insurance products. We also are quite confident that we are able to do so going forward. In that perspective, what helps, of course, is the strong performance of those funds in the market, and that performance means that it is yielding to customers much more, significantly more than, for instance, what has been earned on the state note. So that helps a lot. Let's not forget that in the fee and commission business, we also have a contribution via the banking service and that is a quite stable contribution, which is also definitely strongly supported by our activities in Central Europe where payment services are contributing as a different part of those banking services. So going forward, we are quite confident that what we have seen in the quarters, whereby I make a small exception for the third quarter given the fact that it is positively influenced by the state note, that what we have seen is a solid stream of a business flow which is anchored into the organization.

Thank you.

Thank you. We will now take our next questions from Chris Hellam from Goldman Sachs International. Please go ahead.

Yeah, morning, and thank you for taking my question. So just to follow up on the state note, if we take a step back and think across the whole period from the big outflow last year to the windbacks you saw in the third quarter this year, in your mind, does KBC emerge from all of this stronger, weaker, or unchanged versus competition? in Belgium and how big are the competitive ships in the Belgian market, if at all. And then second is a follow-up to Kiri's question earlier on the Danish compromise. One of your peers yesterday cautioned that if the compromise was abused too much, it could be reviewed. I'd just be interested to hear your thoughts, i.e., if you're hearing or seeing anything about a timeline for it potentially being reviewed.

Thanks, Chris, for your questions. Let me start with the second one first, because I just answered that one. And I'm not surprised that one of my colleagues yesterday made that comment. I didn't hear it for good understanding. So I just answer on what you just told me. But, you know, in my answer also indicated that if we in the sector are going to use the Danish compromise in an extreme way, I would not be surprised that the supervisor would change his position or the regulator would change his position. It's not the supervisor. The Danish supervisor is there for a specific purpose, so let's be careful. The other question on competition, and I invite also Bartel to step in, when it happened one year ago, The outcome was, even for the government, completely surprising. As you know, they wanted the market uncapped, and the outflow, which was then following that uncapped issue of the state note, which was very positively tax-incentivized, as you know, was beyond imagination. As a matter of fact, it was even more outflow than the European stress test is asking the banks to withstand. Now, given what happened, and I already mentioned that in earlier calls, we immediately decided that when it would mature, because that was fixed, that we would get our monies back. And this is what happened. So if you look at the situation today, then the least you can say, we came out at least at the same position. Now, the reality on slide eight shows that we came out better than what we have seen before. in after the loss in the in september 2023 so yes i think we have showed our commercial performance our commercial strengths and when we have collected more monies than than what we have seen in an outflow it is quite clear that somebody else in the market is have is has lost some money to us it is indeed the given i can identify the banks but i'm not going to disclose them publicly

And if I may add to that, I mean, you've seen that it not only went into low margin products such as Turner Bosses, it will also in other type of products regenerate more margin, such as the fund business and, of course, also the insurance business. So I just wanted to add that. Great. Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now take our next questions from Ankarini from RBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. The first is just on those deposits that you logged in at a negative margin. I just wanted to see what happened at the time those deposits mature, and just confirming you wouldn't log them in again at a negative rate. And then, secondly, on the SME new business margin in Belgium, that's increased. And I was just wondering, Is that because the seasonality you pointed to in the past or is this also should they be more structural as rates are coming down and could it widen further in Belgium in the SME segment and is that something you're seeing in other regions as well? Thank you very much.

Can you please repeat your second question?

Just about the margin expansion on new business in SME in Belgium. Is that a seasonal or is it a structural as rates are coming down?

So thanks, Anke, for two questions. Sorry for the repeat because we had a lot of noise here in the room and we couldn't understand your second question. Let me come back on the first part. What about the situation in, let's call it, the end of 2025 when you have the maturity of the monies which are now in or the inflowing state-owned monies? Well, in KBC, you know, we have used a wide set of products which we brought to our customers. And we also used different maturity ranges. And so we have issued products on a six-month basis, on a 12-month basis, and a 13-month basis. Good understanding, we don't give the split up. The only thing you can see is the savings certificates because they're in 12 months. All the rest, we don't give the details. Now, this means that the maturities are spread over the year, and then when they are maturing, we are in a completely different rate environment. First of all, when the state note was issued, we were still at 350 or 375 even. When these monies will mature, we will be at interest rate levels which are significantly lower. So we do expect at least two to three rate cuts between now and then. So the environment is completely different, and then we'll see how competition will react. And as you have seen in the third quarter, we will defend our position, but this time it will be with a positive margin.

As far as your second question is concerned, related to the margins that we generate on the semi and corporate loans, indeed, when you look at the slide, you will see that over the long term, actually, these fees average out more or less at the same level. So from that perspective, is this sustainable? Well, if you draw a line across the margins, the answer would be yes.

Thank you. Thank you.

We will now take our next question from Johan Ekblom from UBS. The line is open. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Can I just have a clarification on the last question? If I understood you correct, you said that by the time the state bonds mature in September next year, you expect two to three ECB rate cuts is what you said. I mean, if I look at the forward curve today, they're pricing in six cuts. So just to clarify what your rate assumptions are and what's embedded in the 5.6 billion guide for next year in terms of either, well, I guess an average and a year-end 25 policy rate would be super helpful.

Thanks, Johan, for your question.

Indeed, we do assume a whole series of interest rate cuts. By the way, we do not necessarily follow, and therefore I said at least, we do not necessarily follow the rate cuts of, sorry, the position of the forwards as you have seen in the previous quarters. They were mostly at the time more aggressive than the reality. So in terms where we think we are, and that's the reason why I used at least, we think that in the course of 2025, the interest rate, the policy rate, sorry, of the European Central Bank will drop to 2%. That means that there are a whole series of rate cuts to come and they are significantly, depends how much they are going to cut, 25 bps. I know that the market is now assuming that by year end there will be a rate cut of 50 bps. We'll see. At least a whole series of cuts will follow and we will go definitely down to a lower level of policy rate. Estimation in our case is by year end 25, we will be at 2% at the forward seven, different position. Also in that perspective, I would say wait and see reality.

Now, does that make sense? I just wanted to make sure that your 5.6 was not based on 2.5 at the end of 0.25, but that's very clear. Thank you.

No, Johan, and let me add some more things to avoid any. First of all, what you said is correct, and the second thing, If we give guidance, we always give it on forwards, even if we don't believe the forwards. So it's always based on forwards.

Perfect. Thank you.

Thank you. It appears we have no further questions. I will now hand over back to Mr. for any additional or closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Given that there are no further questions, this sums it up for this call. I would like to thank you for your attendance and enjoy the rest of the day. Bye bye.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.