Kojamo Plc

Good morning and welcome. This is Koyamo's Harvey Results News Conference. I'm Niina Sarto from Investor Relations. Today I have with me CEO Jani Nieminen and CFO Erik Hjelt. They will shortly present the first six months figures and the outlook for the whole year. Also, Jani will tell us about the market situation. Please send us questions via chat throughout the presentation. In the Q&A, we will also open the phone line for live questions. So in case you want to ask the question yourself, you can click the hand sign on the screen and then wait for your turn in the queue. Now it's time for the presentation. Jani, welcome.

Thank you, Nina, and good morning, everybody. We will provide today, of course, color on the operational environment, then on key financial figures, and then more detailed color on the financial development by our CFO, Erik Hjelte, and then, of course, go through the outlook and the financial targets at the end. I will start by covering the operational environment and then the key figures. As a summary, if you think about what's been going on during the first six months this year, we have been able to increase the total revenue and net rental income against the comparison period. On the other hand, financial occupancy rate decreased from comparison period. There, as we've been saying, we have seen a typical seasonality on the other hand, still that occupancy tends to go down towards the summer and then they tend to pick up speed. On the other hand, The correction of oversupply situation in the market has been delayed. There's still plenty of supply and intense competition throughout the market. On the other hand then if we look forward we do see things changing as there will be a very limited number of new supply coming to the market from new development projects. funds from operations decreased due to finance expenses and maintenance expenses of course then it's good to keep in mind that last year we had a positive impact 8.9 million from the repurchase of barns on the maintenance side one big fact was that the winter was very harsh until the end of april and that impacted the special heating costs Saving program is progressing according to the plan, so all the measures have already been taken and all things are progressing without any surprises there. Balance sheet is strong and our financial key figures and liquidity situation have remained good. Good to keep in mind that all the maturing loans 2024-2025 are already covered. In the transaction market, there's been only a handful of transactions. It's still kind of muted. We don't see a lot of activities there. We made a change in yield requirements and there was an uplift of 10 basis points to meet the transactions which have been made in the market. On the other hand, we do see that the decrease in interest rates reduces the pressure to change yield requirements towards the future. So let's see what's going to happen, but that's how we see it at the moment. Then moving to page five and the bigger picture operational environment, the outlook for the global economy is improving as inflation is slowing and real incomes are growing. Here in Finland, the economy is not expected to grow this year on an annual level. On the other hand, we estimate that economic growth is expected to start this year. Because of this situation, the employment will decrease slightly this year but will grow from next year, backed by increased demand and government measures. On the chart on the right-hand side, typical figures would say that housing trade volumes are still muted. Estimates what's going to happen with the home prices, transaction prices where people buy homes. are quite flattish. It seems that the price is still under pressure for home buyers to start buying homes and most likely we do see prices going down during this year. Rents are quite flat in the market as the competition is intense. We see only slight increases throughout the market in some of the places. A big impact towards our operational environment comes from housing production and residential startups plummeted last year and are estimated to decline this year as well. On right hand side bottom corner I would focus on the dark blue color. We used to have more than 20 000 startups with non-subsidized block of flats and those projects are still to be completed to the market some of those started 2021 2022 on the other hand only 3 000 apartments were started 23 and the estimate for this year is 2 000 so now looking forward not many commercial block of flats will come to the market 2025-2026, and most likely the same will remain 2027. And that's going to impact our market looking forward. Of course, if we think about the light of blue color, I met the question of what does it include? So it includes subsidized housing, single family houses and raw houses. The government measure has been to back construction business in that sense that the estimate now is that the light blue color is a bit taller, a higher number this year, so we most likely see about 1,000 more units subsidized homes to be started this year according to the latest estimates. On the other hand, looking forward, supply entering the market will be very limited. On the other hand, the correction has not yet started and there's still oversupply in the market. But if we combine these two factors and we know that the cities are growing, urbanization is continuing, the supply will decline sharply looking forward. Home sizes, household sizes are backing up the demand. So we do have an increasing number of one and two person households. Mega trends are still valid. People moving towards the biggest cities. We do see a healthy, strong population growth in cities like Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Tampere and Turku. And there, for example, in Helsinki, of course, net immigration plays an important role. In the city of Helsinki, during the last 12 months, 75% of the population growth comes from immigration. So immigration is a strong factor at the moment. And we do see still an increasing number or share households renting the apartments. That will improve the market for us looking forward. Moving to page eight. Our key figures, total revenue 225.6 million against comparison year, the growth was 3.9%, driven mainly by apartments completed to the market. Yes, we did have a slight like-for-like growth as well, but mainly driven by the completed apartments. Net rental income, 142.7 million, increased against comparison year by 3%. Of course, total revenue growth helped. On the other hand, if we think about the cost side, amount of euro spending repairs was now 2.4 million euros less than a year ago. On the other hand, maintenance expenses grew by 6.7 million euros, impacted mainly by, I would say, three factors. One is the portfolio growth, impacted a bit more than 2 million euros. Then the harsh winter, provided increase in water and heating, roughly 3 million euros, and then property taxes a bit more than 1 million euros. Then FFO, finance from operations, 68.2 million euros. Of course there's been an increase in financial costs and that's been impacting FFO. Then fair value of investment properties, 7.9 billion euros. As said, there's now during Q3 a change in yield requirements, 10 basis points, and that impacted the fair values as well. According to the saving program, we're not making any new investment decisions. We are not starting new modernization investments and that's impacting strongly the volumes in our gross investments. Now only 19.3 million euros so far this year. Of that 19.3 million euros new development investments 11.8 million euros and modernization investments 7.5 and as said after June we don't have any projects under construction at the moment. Profit excluding changes in value 73.9 million euros. Of course that result was impacted by increase in financial cost and maintenance cost. Then profit loss before taxes, there is good to keep in mind that the fair value changes now was minus 138.5 million euros and the comparison year, the figure was positive 5.1 million euros. So that made the biggest difference there. A couple of words. What's LUMA? Our approach has been for several years the same since we created LOMO brand a decade ago. We want to provide easy, effortless living for our clients. Our aim is to provide added value. by combining apartments, common spaces and services, both physical and digital. The Net Promoter Score at the moment was 53. I'm happy with that. Of course, I do believe that we are still able to improve the figure. And as digitalization plays an important role in services, I'm happy to say that at the moment 87% of all our tenants use myeloma services, so it's well used, well accepted, provides value for the customers. On page 10, carbon neutrality, sustainability, I always say that sustainability is part of our company's DNA. It has always played an important role for us. It's embedded in all our operations. And we are committed to carbon neutral energy use in our properties by 2030. The annual target is to reduce 5%. until the end of 2025. So far, we've been all the time ahead of our targets. We are progressing well. And if we look at the chart on the bottom, we're halfway through already. I think one thing I have not been mentioning that we've been able to cut down our carbon dioxide emissions by half without spending any additional capex. And of course, all our property electricity is carbon neutral. So how to reduce carbon dioxide and reach our target is a combination of four angles. Of course, consumer behavior, how to change that. We are close to our tenants with our property management, our personal, our communications. Then how to utilize technology. As said, a good example has been our AI technology in optimizing heating. We've been able to transfer data into a currency, so we are giving data to Vantaa Energy, and they are providing carbon-free district heating without additional cost. Of course, measures by our partners play an important role. Happy to see that the district heating companies share the common target to be carbon neutral, and that's helping us a lot. And then of course our other own measures, whether they are thermal heating, solar panels, or for example, next to zero energy buildings, which we started already seven, eight years ago. So good progress there. And now if our CFO, Erik, would come and provide color on the detailed figures. Thank you.

Thank you, Joani, and good morning everybody from my side as well. So page 12, the top line growth was 8.5 million euros during the H1 from the corresponding period, and Q2 part of that was 3.4 million euros. By far the biggest portion of that growth came through the completed apartments, 2024 completed, and especially 2023 completed apartments. Like for lack of rental growth was still positive, slight contribution there as well, so 0.9% and increase in rents and water charges contributed 0.9% and occupancy positive on 0.2% and then on a negative side other items 0.2%. Net rental income side, so the growth was 4.2 million euros during the H1 and Q2 part of that was 3.1 million euros. So that underlines the fact that maintenance expenses were impacted for the HUS winter, especially during Q1. So maintenance expenses grew 6.7 million euros and 2.4 million euros during Q2. And repairs were down by 2.4 million euros as part of the saving program. So the main growth items in maintenance expenses were growing the portfolio, of course, 2.2 million euros, property taxes, 1.1 million euros, and then heating and water together, 3 million euros. So page 13 on the right-hand side, FFO, down by €12.3 million. Of course, top line contributed a positive €8.5 million. And SDA decreased €2.4 million. Maintenance up by €6.7 million, as said. and the biggest growing item on the expenses side was financial expenses, up by 21.2 million euros. In the corresponding period, we revert to a bond contributing 8.9 million euros positive So if we exclude that from the finance cost on the corresponding period, then the increase in finance expenses was 12.3 million euros. And the biggest driver there, of course, is the average interest rate in our portfolio went up to 3.2 from 2.4 from the corresponding period because of refinancing. So the refinancing is made on a higher level compared to those ones that are paid back. So, financial occupancy, as Jani mentioned, down slightly because of the oversupply in the market, especially, and down by 0.5% from the corresponding period and 1.3% from year end, and then a turnover slightly up 0.8%. I think, like for rental income, we already covered. So on page 16, the saving program proceeding as planned, as Janina already mentioned. On the investment side, 19.3 million euros, by far the biggest portion of that was the only ongoing development that was completed at the end of June. 113 apartments. And as we speak, we don't have any ongoing developments. We do have one binding agreement. And on the modernization investment repairs side, so the modernization investments are down by 10.3 million euros from the corresponding period and repairs 2.4 million euros from the corresponding periods as planned as part of the saving program. Page 17, Jani mentioned that we slightly increased the yield requirement. There were actually limited amount of transactions in the market, and most of them are sellerware, open and resi funds, so highly motivated transactions. And these yields that we applied at the end of H1 are now reflecting all transactions, whether they are really comparable or not, but all completed transactions are now reflected in this yield requirement. And going forward, of course, interest rates already came down, but expectations in the market is that going forward, the interest rates will come down further. And of course, that takes away or helps the pressure of chasing yield requirement going forward. There was on the positive side 34.3 million euros impact and by far the biggest portion of that came through from ending restrictions. So apartments came out of the restrictions. We still have 404 apartments where there are restrictions regarding the valuations and those restrictions will gradually end by the end of this year, contributing 20 to 40 million euros uplift in values. Equity ratio loan-to-value, still the balance sheet remains strong, is the key message here. And then page 19, loan maturities. So the key here is that 2024-2025 maturing loans are all covered. And there's two big reasons behind that statement. One is that at the end of H1, we had 328 million euros cash or cash equivalent items. And as part of the saving program, we don't have any major investments going on. And then the FFO is left to be used to pay back loans. So these two items covers all loans maturing 2024 and 2025. On the right hand side, the interest bearing liability is a little more than 3.8 billion euros. It's good to note that that's gross. So if you look net debt, so that came down to 3.561 million euros, if to take into account the cash and cash equivalent items. We didn't do any real new loan agreements during Q2, but several activities there otherwise. So in January, we issued this 200 million euros bond. In March, we made 250 million euros. loan that was drawn and then we draw the 425 million euros syndicated loan made already last year but it was drawn this year and we paid back this 434.5 million euros bond in June. equity per share, EEPRA NRV, not major changes from the year-end figures, and then page 22, our outlook. So we reiterated the outlook we issued in mid-July. Now we estimate that top line growth this year will be between 2 and 4%. And if we take the midpoint of that range, so completed apartments will contribute 3%-ish growth, and then we expect in the midpoint of this guidance that the occupancy will improve moderately during the H2, but still be below the level in corresponding period. Then on FFO guidance side, 142, 152 million euros, the midpoint in that FFO guidance reflects the midpoint of the top-line growth guidance, and then we took into account that no new financing arrangement will be done during this year, normal weather during the second half of this year, and the saving program proceeding as planned. And then the lower end of that FFO range reflects the lower end of the topline growth guidance. And again, the upper end of the FFO guidance reflects the upper end of the topline growth guidance. A couple notes regarding our strategic KPIs, so top line growth 3.9%, annual investments down by 19.3% as part of the saving program, FFO against total revenue 30.2 million euros, Note that the whole ES property taxes are booked during Q1, and that was 15 million euros in total. Loan-to-value equity ratio, as said, still strong, and net promoter score high level, 53%. And now back to Jani.

Thank you, Erik. I'd say that even though there's tough competition ongoing in the market, we were able to increase both total revenues and net rental income. Of course, FFO was impacted by interest levels. The balance sheet is still strong. Financial key figures and liquidity situation remain good. All loans 24-25 covered. So in that sense we can follow what's going to happen in the financing market. Saving program is progressing according to the plan. Very happy with that. then of course the oversupply situation in the market did not start to dissipate yet. I would say that the rental market with oversupply situation is estimated to start improving this year and that will continue next year as well. Our renting in July and August is roughly on the same level than last year. and very in line with our latest outlook. So in that sense, now we do have some kind of visibility of what's going to happen towards the future. Still a bit hard to say an exact date when the turn point will be from oversupply to undersupply, but moving towards that time. Thank you, and now we could move towards the Q&A.

Thank you, Jani and Erik. Do we have any questions? Yes, we have first question from the room here.

Yes, Anssi Rausse from SCB. Thank you for the presentation and a few questions from me. Maybe I start with your occupancy and if we compare your ratio to your competitors' numbers, we can see that you might have been a bit more disciplined with your rents. But now if the situation does not get better, let's say during the latter half of this year, Are you still willing to maybe sacrifice a bit of your occupancy and hold on to your rents or how do you see the combination of these?

Yeah, thank you for the question, first of all. Of course, I would say all the players do have their own strategies. We estimated that the market would have been picking up a bit more speed even now during the summertime. and we did increase rents a bit more already during the first part of the year, started pushing the rents, and the oversupply situation was tough, and so we were, I would say, a bit too early, and that's something we have to follow. The aim is now to improve occupancy, but not let go with the rental increases in whole. But of course we have to follow the market pricing. So I would say kind of dynamic pricing, you have to be really hands on daily basis with the market condition. find the micro locations where you're able to push the rents and then identify those situations where it's now for some time matter of pricing.

Yes, thanks. and maybe the next one about your fair values difficult question but you took those values down a bit now and how do you see like are you done now or what kind of discussions you have had with your external appraiser and of course it's depending on you know transactions in the market but how do you see the situation

As I provided Kalo and Erika as well of course you are not able to give a full promise and decide what the other buyers in the market will do for the rest of the year or for the rest of couple years but as said we have seen interest cuts and interest rates are estimated to keep on going further down and that will take at least pressure away from yield requirements to go more up. And on the other hand, as I said, all the transactions in the market were included in the valuation now. So there's been, yes, on the other hand, a handful, but in that handful of transactions, some of the transactions I would call at least highly motivated transactions. What can I say? I said we don't see an increasing pressure, I please, towards the yield requirements. We do see decreasing pressure towards the yield requirements.

thanks that's clear and the last one from me i continue with the easy question so about your dividend we don't know the future but and it's maybe a bit too early but how do you see can you continue with the zero dividend is it any problem and if necessary i guess you're ready to do that i would say that that yes we came out

a year ago during the autumn already with the full package so to say and the dividend decision was part of that whole saving program package typically the dividend decision has its own time and in and place and it's not yet on the other hand we've been quite clear with our message we will defend our investment-grade rating, and we are ready to take all measures needed.

Thank you.

Okay, next we can move on to phone line question, and please unmute the microphone before starting the question. First, we have John Wong from Kempen. Can you hear us, John?

Yes, Kemi? Thank you for taking my questions. In your report, you mentioned that renting in July and August has been supportive for guidance. Could you perhaps provide a bit more color on that? Does it essentially mean that this H1 like-for-like print is the trough and it should improve from here?

Good morning, John, and thank you for the question. I'm sure whether you were able to hear, I provided that color that Our number of new tenant agreements in July and in August are roughly on the same level than a year ago. And a year ago, we did say that we were quite happy with our renting. Provided color concerning the estimate that there's a slight improvement embedded in our estimates.

Then perhaps related to tenant churn, is that stabilizing in July and August, if you squared it against the new tenant agreements?

It looks to be stabilized on the same level it has now been. I would say slightly elevated compared to comparison year, but nothing significant.

Okay, that's clear. And then perhaps on the investment markets, you just mentioned that there were highly motivated transactions that were cleared in H1. Just looking at what's still at offer, are all the highly motivated transactions cleared or are there still more in the markets that you're aware of?

I would say that there's still potential for highly motivated sales processes. There's pressure towards some of the open-ended resi funds. I think it's not my position to provide any additional color there. We know that some processes are ongoing and according to our understanding and discussions with the brokers, the pricing levels are quite matching with the deals done previously. So it would indicate that nothing, no big changes there now at the moment.

Okay, that's clear. And just a last one on occupancy. I mean, you have been quite vocal that you want to improve it going forward, but what should perhaps be the right level for, say, the next two or three years in terms of occupancy?

I would say in my eyes, let's say two to three years, we're going to hit numbers like 96 again. 96, 97, somewhere between there.

Okay, that's clear. And do you need to provide any incentives to get new tenants in to get to that level?

Looking forward, easy answer no, because we will face a totally different operational environment with lowering supply in the market. As said on the other hand, today we do see intense competition in the market and some of our competitors are quite ready to provide I would say, generous campaigns at the moment. And we have to fight in that environment at the moment.

Okay, that's very clear. That's it from my side.

Thank you. Next, we will take some questions from the chat. So first one is about the liquidity position, as we have mentioned that we have 24-25 loans covered. But what do you expect for H2? Do you expect to do some refinancing that could impact the FFO guidance, new loans?

So as I said, all 2024-2025 maturing loans are now covered. So the next one we are looking at is the 2026 maturing loan, and there's still plenty of time for that. So we haven't decided yet, but it looks like we don't need to do any refinancing during H2. So next year, of course, we want to approach that 2026 maturing loan.

Then can you remind what the 34.3 million gain in the valuation of the investment properties was about?

By far the biggest portion of that was apartments that came out of the restrictions. So we had a part of the portfolio apartments where we have restrictions regarding the valuation. So when those restrictions end, we start to apply the valuation technique that we use the biggest portion of the portfolio. and that gives a nice uplift in value. And we still have 404 apartments where we have these restrictions, and those restrictions will end by the end of this year, providing an additional 20 to 40 million euros positive uplift in value. So ending restriction is the reason behind that positive impact in valuation.

We continue with the valuation team. So do you do the valuation internally or externally?

Actually both. So every quarter we do it internally. And on top of that, every quarter the external experts, being John Lang Lasalle, gives a statement for our valuation.

In the valuation parameters, we assume 97.2% occupancy rate on group level. And as the occupancy has been below this for some time, how should we look at this in the medium term?

I think that it's good to keep in mind that the parameters are for the next 10 years all the time. Looking forward, the operational environment is improving a lot. On the other hand, it's good to keep in mind that there is also a parameter that all the vacant apartments in capital region are kept vacant for the next 12 months. So it's not only about the occupancy parameter, it's as well keeping the empty apartments empty in the valuation.

Right. Then about rent increases in 2025, what kind of level are you viewing at the moment?

I would say that today is not the day to provide yet comments on rental increases 2025 but as I said we've been digging and digging data What's going to happen in Finland city by city? It's not an easy task to find all the construction projects and their timing, but the market is improving. There will be less and less supply. Urbanization is ongoing. So oversupply situation, as said, will start to go away already this year. It will continue next year. That will improve the rental market and that will back higher rental increases.

Then about disposals as the market has been fairly inactive so far this year. Do you have any disposal target?

We don't have a set target to provide here, but we already said a year ago that as a part of the saving program, disposals are a possibility and something we may end up doing. At the moment, the balance sheet is strong. All the loans measuring 2024-2025 are covered. So we are not between a rock and a hard place and have to sell today at any cost. But we are scanning the market and if there's appetite in the market, pricing is reasonable, we will make disposals. Whether it's autumn or winter or spring, in my eyes it's not that important. It's like finding the right portfolio to be sold and finding the right buyers to pay the right pricing.

Then about financing, hedging ratio came down to 78%. Can you elaborate your hedging strategy?

So the strategy is that all the times between 50 and 100% have to be hedged. And we've been on the conservative side historically. And this level at the end of each one is again quite conservative. And now we are looking, of course, at the market and expectations for interest rate declining, and we are ready to do some swaps by about 50-100% at all times.

Then about maturing loans, there is the question about committed credit facilities. Do you see you need to use them to pay back loans?

Actually no, because the gas position and an FFO and the saving program together covers the 2024 and 2025 maturing loans. So we don't calculate our plans that we need to use these committed unused credit facilities for repayment.

Okay, clear. Then actually the final question about Moody's and the rating. Any news from that side?

Nothing there, so we haven't been discussing with those guys lately. And we have set the next meeting in two or three months time, so we haven't been discussing, as said, with those guys.

Okay, thank you. Seems that we have one additional question from this room here.

Yes, Anssi Rausi again from SCB. One more question from me. If we think about the legislation in Finland and we know that there were some changes in the housing allowance system and now we know that there might be some limits for tenant incomes starting from early 2025 in subsidized apartments like how do you see the dynamics and are these like important to you or do you feel that you're like having a fierce competition with the city of Helsinki apartments

I would say that we don't place our business based on subsidies. The typical tenant we aim for is not receiving subsidies. It's an individual moving towards a big city in order to start working. Nevertheless, even if we don't follow and when we don't follow who's receiving subsidies or not some of the clients do receive subsidies these changes they go through the whole market so it's not impacting only Koyama it's impacting the whole market so in that sense I don't see it changing the market I read the newspaper during the last two weeks and would say there's kind of challenge coming that as the city of Helsinki already provided information about rental increases 2025 they are breaking the limit with the accepted maximum cost on monthly basis and that should be the cheapest or most affordable living for low-income people. And I think in those cases, the challenges are the biggest. But that's something we have to follow. Is it going to impact the market? Easy to say, at least not yet. Kind of Couple of scenarios. Will students start working a bit more along with their studies? Would there be a new phenomena that coal living would increase? That's something we will have to follow, but nothing yet.

Okay then, thank you for all the questions. Our Q3 numbers are out on 7th of November. Thank you all for joining us today and see you then in November. Thank you, bye-bye.