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Kokusai Electric Corp
11/9/2023
I am Kanai, Representative Director, President, and Chief Executive Officer. Thank you for joining us today at Kokusai Electric's earnings call. As you are aware, our company was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market on October 25th. We would like to take this opportunity to proactively disclose information and engage in dialogue with investors as well as analysts. I will skip this disclaimer page. Since there are many who are attending the meeting with us for the first time, I would like to begin with a brief explanation about the Kokusai Electric Group. Page 4 carries our corporate overview. In our more than 70-year-long history, we have been achieving strong growth together with our customers, the world's leading device manufacturers. In 2018, we restarted as a specialized manufacturer of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, focusing on deposition out of the semiconductor manufacturing processes. Our products and services have since then long been highly appreciated by our customers. Page five is describing our group supply chain. The center of research, development, and manufacturing is located in our Toyama plant, which, together with our plant in Korea, supplies products to customers around the world, which is supported by a network of our operations in Asia, China, North America, and Europe. Currently, in anticipation of medium- to longer-term demand growth, we are constructing a new plant in Tonami City, Toyama Prefecture, with the aim of commencing operations in the fall of 2024. In addition, the Toyama plant will shift part of its manufacturing capability to the new plant to enhance its development capability. Through these measures, we will double our manufacturing capacity and expand our development capacity by 1.5 times, creating a structure that will enable us to meet growing demand up until around 2030. Page 6 is on our group's management policy. As a company engaging in the evolution of semiconductors, the Kokusai Electric Group pursues value creation from both business and ESG perspectives based on the Kokusai Electric Way, which was formulated as a new corporate philosophy in December 2022 and aims to realize its own sustainable development as well as a sustainable society. Page 7 summarizes our unique business model. We are a company specializing in film deposition. Our main products are batch ALD compatible equipment and treatment equipment where we pride top class market share in the world. And under our services business, in addition to recurring businesses such as piece parts sales and maintenance services, we also have equipment relocation and modification businesses, as well as 200 millimeter wafer size equipment sales. Most recently, we are seeing rapid growth in equipment sales for SIC power devices. On page eight, I will discuss one of our core products, the batch deposition equipment. In recent years, as semiconductor devices have become more complex and shifting to 3D structures, the surface area requiring deposition has expanded and the gas travel distance is becoming longer, which is resulting in longer deposition hours, creating more prominent productivity issues. This is where the batch deposition equipment can solve these productivity issues by making deposition of several dozen or more wafers at a time possible. In addition, ALD, which is a process where gases are cyclically supplied and reactions occur on the surface of the wafer, enables excellent step coverage for difficult depositions with complex device structures. In other words, for advanced devices with complex structures, batch ALD combined with batch deposition is the logical solution to achieve both high productivity as well as address highly difficult deposition. This has been demonstrated in the 3D NAND space where we estimate that our market share in the batch ALD market has grown to about 70% over the past few years. Next, on page 9, I will discuss treatment devices, the second pillar of our business following batch ALD. As deposition temperatures continue to drop, there is growing need for plasma-based film quality improvement. Our treatment equipment is a highly productive solution for improving film quality with excellent isotropy and step coverage, thanks to the abundant radicals generated by our unique plasma method. Deployment is already underway in the NAND and DRAM areas, and we believe that deployment in logic will be the next inflection point. Page 10 is on SIC power devices and the service business. Sales for SIC power device applications have been accelerating since the previous fiscal year and are expected to grow significantly in the current fiscal year as well. In addition, development of high-temperature activation annealing equipment utilizing our technology is underway, and we expect its deployment to be a further inflection point. Sales of SIC power device applications were approximately 500 million Japanese yen in the previous fiscal year and are expected to exceed 4 billion Japanese yen in the current fiscal year. We are aiming to exceed 10 billion yen levels in the next few years and expect sales to exceed 20 billion yen if SIC power device applications are included. And next, Kamiya will provide an overview of the current second quarter financial results. I'm Kamiya, Senior Managing Executive Officer and CFO. I will now give an overview of the financial results for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. Page 12, our highlights. I will share details in the following pages. Please see page 13. This section shows profit and loss for the second quarter and the first half of the current fiscal year. Since we consider adjusted profit to be an important management indicator, I will be discussing things in adjusted profit terms. Since most of our export sales of our products are in yen terms, the foreign exchange impact on our profit is negligible. In the second quarter, revenue was down 30% and adjusted operating income was down 39% compared to the same period of last year. The reason for the large decrease compared to the market change is that our memory sales account for a large proportion of our total sales and were strongly affected by the memory market slump. On the other hand, compared to the first quarter of the current fiscal year, revenue increased 38% and adjusted operating income increased 97%, hitting the bottom in the first quarter as expected, and we are starting to see recovery in the second quarter. In the first half of the current fiscal year, revenue was in line with the forecast at the beginning of the period, and profit was much higher than expected at the beginning of the period, with a gross profit margin of 44%, an improvement of 2 percentage points despite a decrease in revenue from the same period of the previous year. Research and development expenses, capital expenditures, and depreciation amortization are progressing as initially projected. On page 14 are the factors that contributed to the year-on-year changes in revenue and adjusted operating income for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. Equipment sales fell sharply, especially in memory, as some device manufacturers curbed investment, leading to a decline in gross profit and lower adjusted operating income. In the first half of the period under review, sales of mature nodes mainly to China were strong, with sales to local Chinese device manufacturers accounting for more than 40% of total sales. Batch ALD accounted for about 40% of equipment sales, while treatments accounted for about 10% of equipment sales. Service sales, especially parts sales and maintenance services, have remained steady, ensuring revenue and earnings on par with the same period of the previous fiscal year. Page 15 shows revenue by business segment. In the fiscal year ended March 2023, equipment accounted for about 70% and services about 30%. While equipment sales declined in fiscal year ended March 2024, services revenues and earnings remained on par with the same period of the previous year, resulting in an increase in the services sales composition. Page 16 shows sales revenue by application. In the fiscal year ended March 2023, NAND accounted for 43%, DRAM for 20%, and Logic and others for 37%. In fiscal year ended March 2024, the sales composition of ratio of Logic and others increased due to a decrease in NAND. Logic continues to be supported by mature nodes, and DRAM continues to ship most consistently. Others consist of wafer applications, power device applications, and others. SIC power device applications with wafer sizes of 150 to 200 millimeters are included in the service business. Page 17 shows changes in order backlog. Orders received are not disclosed in the materials because there is a mixture of projects with long lead times that span across periods and projects with short lead times that are booked as sales within the same quarter and the composition of these projects vary from quarter to quarter. the order backlog at the end of the second quarter was approximately 166 billion japanese yen down 23 billion yen from the end of the first quarter backlog had remained at high levels due to increase in long lead time mandates owing to supply chain problems in the second half of the fiscal year ended march 2022 however these longer lead time mandates are starting to be booked as sales and as such order backlog is starting to normalize 60% of the order backlog at the end of the second quarter will be booked as sales in the current fiscal year, 30% in the next fiscal year and the remainder in subsequent years. Orders are expected to bottom out in the second quarter and recover from the third quarter. Page 18 is the balance sheet. Total assets decreased by 10.2 billion yen from the end of the previous period, mainly due to decreases in cash and cash equivalents, trade, and other receivables. Total liabilities decreased by 21.5 billion yen from the end of the previous period, mainly due to decrease in trade and other payables. Page 19 shows the main management indicators on the balance sheet. The equity ratio increased 4.3 percentage points from the end of the previous period to 47.8%. Net cash is temporarily negative due to temporary deterioration in operating cash flow in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, but as sales revenue recovers, operating cash flow is expected to improve and we expect to turn net cash positive from the next fiscal year onwards.
Page 20 shows quarterly cash flow trends. Although operating cash flow have temporarily declined due to lower sales, and the cash and cash equivalence balances remain adequate for working capital. Page 21 shows quarterly R&D expenses, capital expenditures, and depreciation and amortization. R&D expenses, which have been ranging between 4% and 5%, will be elevated to around 6% as sales recover over the medium to long term to accelerate growth. Capital investment, which previously ranged from 2 to 3 billion yen per year, will be increased to 4 to 6 billion yen per year to accelerate growth. Since the graph includes large investments such as the investment related to the new plant being built in Toyama and the expansion of a demonstration room in Korea, the graph shows regular and large capital investments separately. Next, I will explain our full-year forecasts. Here are the highlights. Specific details will be explained on the following pages. Please see page 24. For the fiscal year ending in March 24, we forecast revenue of 180 billion yen, gross profit of 73.7 billion yen, adjusted operating income of 36.3 billion yen, and adjusted net income of 25.2 billion yen. Although profits for the first half of the year exceeded the initial forecast, the full year forecast remains unchanged, and we view this profit for the full year as minimum level. With regard to the recent additional measures taken by the U.S. to restrict exports to China, there are no products of ours subject to the restrictions, and we do not expect any impact to our performance. The dividend forecast is a semiannual amount, taking into that the listing period is in the second half of the year. We will pay the half-year dividend in the year. The dividend payout ratio is based on the unadjusted net income, but if calculated based on adjusted net income, the payout will be 10%, a level equivalent to 20% for the full year. On page 25, we show the bridge analysis for the full-year earnings of the forecast compared to the previous year. The trend in the second half of the year is expected to remain unchanged from the first half, with the matured node logic and the stable DRAM expected to drive for the full year. Although profits for the first half of the fiscal were higher, the full-year forecast remains unchanged. Page 26 shows the sales composition by business for the full year. We expect the ratio of the service business to grow temporarily in fiscal year March 24 due to the decline in equipment sales, but if it is expected, return to the previous balance as equipment sales recover and then grow in each of the following years. PAGE 27 SHOWS THE SALES COMPOSITION OF EQUIPMENT SALES BY APPLICATION FOR THE YEAR. IN FISCAL YEAR MARCH 24, WE EXPECT A LOGIC FOUNDARY RATIO TO RAISE TEMPORARILY DUE TO RESTRAINED INVESTMENT IN MEMORY AND INCREASED INVESTMENT IN LEGACY MODES, BUT WE ANTICIPATE BALANCED GROWTH AS EQUIPMENT SALES RECOVER. KANAE SANG WILL EXPLAIN THE LAST SECTION, MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM BUSINESS STRATEGY AND GOALS. I will explain our mid- to long-term business strategies and goals. Here are the highlights. Specific details will be explained on the following pages. Please see page 30. Here is the outlook for the business environment. The semiconductor device market is expected to grow significantly over the medium to long term due to the expansion of data centers and the investment in reducing environmental impact. The WFE market is expected to grow to about 110 to 120 billion yen in the next years, although it is expected to remain mostly flat this year. As for our equipment sales forecast, we expect a significant decrease from the previous year in fiscal year March 24, but we assume a recovery in fiscal year March 25, outperforming the WFE growth. By application, NAND is expected to recover in the second half of fiscal year March 25. DRAM is expected to have the most stable orders in sales. A recovery in mass production of advanced devices is expected, and earlier than expected recovery would be an upside. Lozik expects that in the short term, the mature nodes for China will lead the way, and then the balance will improve as advanced nodes begin to increase globally. Rapid growth in SIC power device application is also expected to contribute to sales growth. On page 31, we summarize the drivers and the catalysts for our future growth. We believe that a number of catalysts exist in the short, medium, and long term to sustain strong future growth momentum. Our long-term goal is to realize these catalysts and achieve a more balanced portfolio that includes SIC power devices in addition to memory and logic. In the time horizon beyond that, there are inflection points such as 3D DRAM, and we will aim for growth through new innovations based on our technological capabilities. We have also initiated a partnership with iMac for the joint development of new processes for next-generation devices and are actively pursuing a partnership strategy to accelerate growth as batch ALD and treatment are the focus of attention in the development of new generation devices such as CFET and 3D DRAM. We will continue to actively promote partnership. On page 32, we explain the unique positioning of batch ALDs. Batch and single wafer are used in separate applications and there is essentially no overlap between the two areas. As semiconductor devices become more complex, productivity challenges become more pronounced and the need for batch ALD is expanding. This has shifted the market in the upper right direction, and the time for batch ALD is growing. We are expanding our success with 3D NAND, 2D RAM, and Logic. Page 3 summarizes our medium and long-term goals. In the next few years, we expect the WFE market to grow to $110 to $120 billion, of which we aim to generate sales of 300 to 330 billion yen. Batch ALD and treatment are targeted to grow at an average annual rate of more than 20 or 25 percent, and SIC power devices are targeted to grow at an even higher rate of more than 30 percent. While the gross profit margin will recover to over 43% through cutting-edge high-value added equipment sales and service sales, the adjusted operating profit margin is assumed at 28% and 30%, taking into account increased R&D expenses due to aggressive investment. Finally, page 34, discuss our shareholder return policy. While placing the highest priority on investment in growth, we also aim to achieve a high level of shareholder return. In addition, the company plans to flexibly consider share buybacks in order to return approximately 70% of free cash flow after interest-bearing debt repayment to shareholders. That concludes my presentation. Thank you for your attention.