Kokusai Electric Corp

I am Kao Kami, Managing Executive Officer and CFO. Thank you for joining us today at Kokusai Electric's Earnings Call. I will begin by presenting our third quarter financial results as well as our full year earnings forecast. These are disclaimers which I will skip. First is a summary of the third quarter results. Page 4 are highlights. Specific details will be shared from the following pages and beyond. Page 5 is a summary of the consolidated financial results for the third quarter as well as the first nine months. In the third quarter from October to December, both revenue and profits increased compared to the same period of last year, in line with the revised earnings forecast at the time of the second quarter results. Both revenue and profit increased also compared to the second quarter, continuing a recovery trend. The lower gross profit margin in the third quarter compared to the first and second quarters is due to the difference in project mix and one-time expenses, as explained at the second quarter earnings call. The third quarter cumulative results, both for revenue and profit, also increased compared to the same period last year, and each profit margin also exceeded that of the same period last year. R&D, CapEx, and depreciation were generally in line with previous forecasts. Page 6 shows the factors behind the year-on-year changes in revenue and adjusted operating income for the third quarter. Equipment sales increased in the third quarter as equipment sales grew for all Logic, Foundry, DRAM, and NAND applications. In addition, part sales, relocation and modifications and legacy equipment sales of 200 mm and smaller were strong and service sales also increased. As a result, overall revenue increased 11% year-on-year. Higher gross profits from increased sales and higher gross margin offset higher SG&A expenses, resulting in a 12% increase in adjusted operating income year-on-year. Page 7 shows the sales composition by business. Equipment sales increased 12% and service sales increased 10% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. Compared to the second quarter, equipment sales increased 33% and service sales increased slightly. The reasons for the increase in equipment sales will be explained in detail on the next page. For the third quarter year to date, equipment sales increased 43% and service sales increased 16% compared to the same period last year. The remarkable growth in equipment sales increased the ratio of equipment sales to total sales and brought it closer to its original sales mix. Page 8 shows sales of 300 mm equipment, which comprises the equipment business, and sales of legacy equipment of 200 mm or less, which is included in the service business by application. In the third quarter, sales to Logic, Foundry, DRAM, and NAND increased 24%, 17%, and 20%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. due to higher equipment sales to advanced nodes in Logic Foundry and to China in DRAM. In addition, equipment sales for NAND increased due to the generational changes of devices. Compared to the second quarter, sales for Logic Foundry increased 23%, sales for DRAM increased 23%, and sales for NAND increased 2.7 times due in part to smaller sales in the second quarter. There was an advance in shipments from the second quarter to the first quarter, but even by excluding this impact, recovery trend is continuing. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the cumulative third quarter saw a 36% increase in sales for Logic Foundry, an 83% increase for DRAM, and a 32% increase for NAND. Orders received in the third quarter totaled approximately 45 billion yen and the order backlog was approximately 123 billion yen. Although some orders that were scheduled to be received in the third quarter were postponed to the fourth quarter, they have already been confirmed and the total orders received in the second half of the year are expected to significantly exceed those in the first half of the year. Page 9 shows the sales of equipment and sales divided into two categories, sales to local manufacturers in China and sales to manufacturers outside of China. From here on, sales to Chinese local manufacturers will be referred to as sales to China, and those to non-Chinese local manufacturers will be referred as sales to the rest of the world. Until the second quarter, we have explained the sales composition by destination, but from this time, we will explain sales to China and to the rest of the world where the market and business trends are different. Although quarterly sales are uneven, the overall trend is towards a recovery in sales to countries around the world. The main factors are, first, growth in sales for Advanced Node Logic Foundry, second, growth in sales for Advanced DRAM, and third, recovery in sales of Fournant. We expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ending March 2026. We will explain our future outlook later. In line with this growth in sales to countries around the world, the ratio of sales to China peaked in the first quarter, when shipments to China manufacturers were concentrated, and has been on a downward trend reaching 40% in the third quarter. Please refer to the appendix for sales by destination, which had been reporting until the second quarter financial results. Page 10 shows quarterly R&D expenses, capital expenditures, and depreciation and amortization. Research and development expenses for the third quarter were ¥3.8 billion roughly in line with our previous forecast and accounted for 6.2% of net sales. We will continue to invest in development of next-generation products as planned, but due to the rapid pace of sales expansion over the medium term, we plan to keep R&D expenses as a percentage of sales revenue in the 6% range. With regard to capital investment, the Tonami Business Office was completed in October as scheduled. bringing a break in large-scale capital investment in the second quarter. The main capital investment related to Tanami business site will be completed in the fiscal year ending March 2025, and from the fiscal year ending March 2026, we plan to invest 40 to 60 billion yen per year in the medium term. Page 11 is the balance sheet. Assets at the end of the third quarter included an increase in property, plant, and equipment, mainly due to the construction of a new plant, and an increase in trade and other receivables due to higher sales, while cash and cash equivalents decreased significantly due to the purchase of Treasury stock. As a result, total assets decreased by 9 billion yen from the end of the previous period. Total liabilities decreased by ¥9.5 billion from the end of the previous period due to a decrease in trade and other payables, debt repayment, and contract liabilities. Total shareholders' equity increased by 500 million yen from the end of the previous fiscal year due to an increase in retained earnings resulting from the recording of quarterly income and other factors while shareholders' equity decreased due to acquisition of Treasury stock. Page 12 shows quarterly cash flows. In the third quarter, free cash flow was a net outflow of 5.5 billion yen as investment cash flow outflows such as purchase of property plant and equipment exceeding operating cash flow inflows such as recording of quarterly income financing cash flow was a net outflow of 4.1 billion yen mainly due to dividend payments cash and cash equivalents remain sufficient for working capital page 13 shows key management indicators related to the balance sheet The equity ratio at the end of the third quarter was 51.3%, remaining above 50%. Regarding the relationship between cash and debt, cash and cash equivalents decreased due to share buybacks and dividend payments, resulting in a net debt of 29.1 billion yen. Although net debt is still expected at the end of fiscal year ending March 2025, the company will continue to generate cash flow and repay debt, aiming to return to net cash from fiscal year ending March 2026 and onwards. Next, I will explain our full year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025. Page 15 are highlights. Specific details will be shared in the following pages and beyond. Page 16 shows the forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025. Since the third quarter results were in line with the full year earnings forecast revised at the time of the second quarter results and the same trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter, the full year earnings forecast remains unchanged. There is also no change to the dividend forecast. On page 17, we summarize the reasons for the increase or decrease in the forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025 compared to the previous year's actual results. Sales revenue is expected to increase 32% from the previous year due to three factors, and both worldwide and to China are expected to increase by more than 30%. The most significant factor was equipment sales to countries around the world. As in the third quarter, equipment sales to countries around the world are expected to increase by 23 billion yen due to recovery of NAND equipment sales in line with the device generation shift, in addition to the recent growth in equipment sales for Advanced Node Logic Foundry and Advanced DRAM. The second factor is equipment sales to China. Although sales of equipment for mature node Logic Foundry have been slowing down, sales of equipment for DRAM are expected to increase significantly due to aggressive investment by major manufacturers resulting in an increase of approximately ¥22 billion in equipment sales to China. The third factor is service sales. In addition to growth in sales of legacy equipment, relocation, modification and parts sales are expected to increase due to active capital investment, resulting in an increase in service sales of approximately 12 billion yen. Adjusted operating income is expected to increase 50% from the previous year due to higher gross profit from increased sales and improved profitability from increased sales of equipment for high-value-added advanced devices. Page 18 shows a breakdown of sales by business segment in the full year forecast. Unchanged from the second quarter results, equipment sales and service sales are expected to increase 39% and 18% respectively over the same period last year. Due to the fast pace of recovery in equipment business sales, the sales composition ratio is expected to normalize. Page 19 shows a breakdown of sales by application in the full year forecast. Compared to the previous fiscal year, sales of equipment for Logic Foundry, which has seen a marked recovery for advanced nodes, are expected to increase by 11 billion yen. Sales of equipment for DRAM, for which demand for advanced devices is strong due to HBM demand, are expected to increase by 31 billion yen. And sales of equipment for NAND, for which investment is beginning to accompany generation changes from the second half of the year expected to increase by 7 billion yen. In the second half of the year, we expect sales of equipment for NAND to increase by 7 billion yen. For Logic Foundry, we expect GAA-related sales to be 10 billion yen range as forecasted in the beginning of the fiscal year. And for Interposer, we expect 10 billion double initial forecasts. Sales to DRAM customers are in line with the revised forecast, with sales to worldwide customers expected to reach 25 billion, an increase of 8 billion yen from the initial forecast. In addition, SIC-powered device-related sales, which are included in equipment 200 millimeters or smaller, are expected to increase by 70% to 7 billion yen, exceeding the initial forecast of 20% increase over the previous year. Page 20 shows the breakdown of sales revenue by first half and second half and the forecast for fiscal year ending March 2025. The graph shows sales to China and the rest of the world broken down into equipment and services by application. The left graph is for the rest of the world and the right graph is for China. For worldwide sales, both equipment and service sales have been on an increasing trend since the beginning of the fiscal year ending March 2025, and sales for major applications in Logic Foundry, DRAM, and NAND are expected to increase significantly in the second half of the fiscal year. Sales to the rest of the world are expected to increase by 20% from the first half to the second half of the year. In contrast, sales to China for DRAM increased in the fiscal year ending March 2025, and there are signs of recovery for NAND in the second half of the year, while sales for mature node, logic foundry, and services are showing signs of slowing down. Sales to China are expected to decline 6% from the first half to the second half of the year. As a result, the ratio of sales to China in the first half of the year was 48%, while it is expected to be 41% in the second half. That concludes my part.

I am Tsukada, Director and Senior Managing Executive Officer. I am pleased to announce that I will begin serving as a representative director, president and CEO in April. I am looking forward to leading the company in the right direction while engaging in dialogue with you all. Thank you for your continuous support. Please refer to page 29 of the appendix for the new executive officer structure effective April 1st. Now I will explain the outlook for the future. Looking at the third quarter to date business operations, despite with some market condition changes, our growth initiatives have made steady progress and this has been reflected in our business performance. I will explain the specifics of these efforts. Page 22 is the outlook for the business environment. In the semiconductor device market, we expect the demand for advanced devices to continue to drive the market. However, we are seeing a slow recovery in general-purpose DRAM and NAND, and a settling down of a mature node logic foundry. In light of these changes, we have revised the scale of WFE growth outlook in 2025 from the high single-digit YOY to the same level as in 2024. We assume a 10 or 20% YOY increase in the world and a 20 or 30% YOY decrease in WFE in China. In the mid to long term, the outlook remains unchanged that the semiconductor-related market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for electronic devices such as smartphones and PCs, the expansion of data centers, and the investment in reducing environmental impact. And there is no change in our assumption that WFE will grow to around $120 billion in the next few years. On page 23, we summarize the business environment and our status by application. In the logic foundry market, active investment in mature nodes in China appears to be slowing down, and investment in mature nodes in Europe and the US is expected to continue to be restrained for some time. On the other hand, investment in most cutting-edge nodes is picking up, and although some device manufacturers are curbing their investment, we expect that the overall demand for large foundry equipment will continue to increase. We expect that sales of equipment for GAA will expand to the 20 billion yen level in the fiscal year March 26, and that sales will continue to increase thereafter as the industry moves to the second generation. For DRAM, we expect equipment demand to decline significantly in 2025 due to investment cycle in China. On the other hand, we expect strong demand for cutting-edge equipment to continue in the global market despite the slow recovery in general-purpose DRAM. and we have almost finalized the POR for D1C generation batch AOD compatible equipment and have one POR for D1C generation single wafer treatment equipment. With the contribution of these new PORs, we expect the equipment sales for DRAM to remain strong in fiscal year March 26, and we aim to expand PORs for D1D generation and subsequent generations. For NAND, although the pace is slower than previously expected, demand for replacing or upgrades and modifying equipment due to the changing generations of device is beginning to recover. Accordingly, in the second half of the fiscal year, March 2025, sales of high-value added budget ALD systems begin to recover. We expect this trend to continue in the fiscal year March 2026, and we anticipate an increase in sales of equipment for Chinese market. Although the market for SIC power device appears to be stagnant, sales of existing products, mainly to China, are strong, and new high temperature activation annealing products, which are being evaluated jointly with customers, are expected to contribute to sales as the market recovers. Regarding export regulations, from December of last year to January of this year, the U.S. government revised its export regulations. In addition, on January 31st, the Japanese government released public comments on the export regulation revision. Upon close examination of these issues, we have confirmed that there will be no direct impact on our equipment business due to regulatory revisions by the US government. We have confirmed that even if the Japanese government's regulatory amendments are enforced as per the public comments, the direct impact on our group's business will be very limited. We are not aware of any indirect impact at this time, but we'll continue to monitor them closely. Page 24 shows the trend of sales to China and to the rest of the world. In the mid-term management plan explained at the RRDA last June, we targeted a 10 or 15 percent increase in sales for the fiscal year March 26 compared to the most recent forecast for the fiscal year March 25, based on the assumption of high single-digit growth for WFE. The breakdown was assumed to be a 40 percent increase for the rest of the world and a 20 percent decrease for China. We have revised the outlook of our fiscal year March 26 results based on the assumption that the size of the WFE in 2025 will be similar to that of 2024. and we are aiming for increase in both sales and profit for fiscal year March 26, assuming an increase in sales of about 5% compared to fiscal year March 2025. We have revised the breakdown of sales to the rest of the world to an increase of about 30%, exceeding WFE growth, and sales to China to a decrease of 20 or 30%, the same as WFE. Let me explain our look for the rest of the world where substantial growth is expected. The most significant growth is expected in equipment sales for advanced DRAM to countries around the world. As device makers continue to invest in the D1C generation, we expect sales of batch ALD and single wafer treatment equipment to grow. Next, although equipment sales for NAND will not reach the scale expected in the mid-term management plan, we expect to see a recovery trend as the generational shift progresses. Some of this may come from modifications rather than new equipment sales, but even in this case, service revenue will grow. Finally, equipment sales for Advanced Node Logic Infantry Although we expect softness in equipment sales for mature nodes for some time, we expect equipment sales for cutting-edge GAA to grow as expected in the medium-term management plan. On the other hand, sales for DRAM in China are expected to decline significantly in line with the investment plans of major manufacturers, and demand for mature node logic confoundry is also expected to stagnate for some manufacturers. However, the sales to China will be partially offset by a recovery in sales for NAND, which had been cautiously estimated. Page 25 shows the product mix. In the fiscal year ending March 24, while capital investment for advanced device was restrained due to the sluggish market, CapEx for mature nodes was active, resulting in a decline in the sales composition ratio of batch ALD compatible equipment and single wafer treatment equipment, which have been increasingly adapted for advanced devices. However, the mix of batch AOD-compatible equipment and single-wafer treatment equipment has turned to an upward trend due to increased sales of equipment for cutting-edge nodes, logic confoundry, and advanced DRAM in the fiscal year March 25, and the recovery in sales of equipment for NAND from the second half of the year. We expect a mix of batch ALD compatible equipment and single wafer treatment equipment which are high value added product to expand in line with the evolution of devices. At present, the mix of mini batch systems and Tsurugi high-end ALD compatible deposition system is expected to recover along with the recovery of NAND application. We aim to raise the sales mix of batch AOD at compatible equipment and single wafer treatment equipment combined from 56% in fiscal year March 24 to about 65% in fiscal year March 25 to 65 or 70% in the fiscal year March 26 and to more than 70% in the medium term. This will enable us to maintain overall profitability, even if the relatively high profitability of the China sales composition declines, and furthermore, to increase profitability as sales expand in the future. On page 26, we have summarized our semiconductor device development roadmap, our catalysts, and KPIs. There are no changes to the strategies and medium-term targets we have explained so far. We expect to achieve our mid-term target in the year in which WFE reaches $120 billion, either in the fiscal year ending March 27 or in the fiscal year ending March 28. We believe that as semiconductor devices become more complex and three-dimensional, there will be more opportunities to take advantage of our strength in batch ALD and single wafer treatment equipment. Therefore, even if the pace of WFE growth slows down in the short term, we believe that sales to the leading edge market will exceed FWFE growth. In the medium term, we will expand the demand for GAA second-generation logic foundry and DRAM D1D generation, expand sales of mature node logic foundry and SIC power devices as the market recovers, and achieve a well-balanced portfolio through these efforts. In the long term, we are aiming for sustainable growth while realizing growth in our new business area of advanced packaging, which includes logic CFET, vertical channel transistor DRAM, and the transition to 3D stacked DRAM. We will aim to achieve sustainable growth while also realizing growth in the new business area of advanced packaging. That wraps up my presentation. Thank you.