4/16/2024

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us for LVMH's first quarter 2024 revenue announcement. I'm Rodolphe Fosin, Director of Financial Communications at LVMH, and with me is Jean-Jacques Guigny, our Chief Financial Officer. I will start by taking you through the highlights of the company's performance for the first quarter. And after these remarks, Jean-Jacques and I will be happy to take your questions. As a reminder, certain information to be discussed on today's call is forward-looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For these, I refer you to the safe harbour statement included in our press release and on slide 2 of our presentation. Turning now to our announcement, our release was just issued a while ago in both French and English and is available on the LVMH website, lvmh.com, as are the slides for today's call. We begin on slide three. For the first three months of the year, the group delivered 3% organic revenue growth on a particularly challenging comparison basis. Growth was supported by all regions except Asia ex-Japan, which we'll explain in further detail later. As far as divisions are concerned, you should be familiar with most of the themes highlighted on this slide. Many were already visible at the end of last year, notably a resilient performance from fashion and leather goods, and to a lesser extent, watches and jewelry, destocking in wines and spirits, and a strong performance from Sephora and our perfumes and cosmetics brands. Turning to slide 4, you will see that the first quarter revenue reached 20.7 billion euros, up 3% on an organic basis and down 2% on a reported basis after adjusting for a negative 4% currency impact and a negative 1% perimeter impact, predominantly resulting from the disposal of Starboard. turning to slide five which shows our geographical revenue mix most regions are unchanged except japan up two percentage points in the mix to nine percent and non-japan asia down three percentage points to 33 percent The reason for this is explained on slide 6, where you can see the incidence of Chinese purchases abroad with a positive impact on Japan, which remains one of the fastest growing tourist destinations for Chinese tourists, and a negative impact on non-Japan Asia, since Chinese demand growth is currently driven by tourism outside of the region. Europe and the US were broadly consistent with group average, up 2 percentage points each. Now we'll turn to the business groups and we'll start as usual with wines and spirits on slide 9. The wine and spirits business group delivered 1.4 billion euros in revenue for the first three months of 2024. This represents a 12% increase on an organic basis versus the same period last year and a 16% decrease on a reported basis after taking into account a negative 5% currency impact and a positive 1% perimeter impact related to the acquisition of Provence Rosé wine Minuti. broken down champagne and wines generated 680 million euros in the first quarter representing an eight percent decrease on an organic basis and a 15 percent decrease on a reported basis after taking into account a positive one percent parameter impact and a negative eight percent currency impact Note that the above-average currency impact here reflects the devaluation of Argentina's pesos to which we have a small exposure through our wine business. Cognac & Spirits delivered 736 million euros in Q1, representing a 16% decrease on an organic basis and an 18% decrease on a reported basis after taking into account a 2% negative currency impact. On slide 10, the performance of Champagne & Wines was led by lower shipments in its largest market, Europe, due to large stock replenishments in the first quarter of the year, while Japan was penalized by the unfavorable phasing of price increases and equally challenging comps. Meanwhile, we saw the continued international development of Chateau d'Esclan. In cognac and spirits, Hennessy was impacted by the cautious restocking of retailers in the U.S. and by soft local demand during the Chinese New Year, although in both cases, the sellout is better than the sell-in and U.S. depletions continue to recover. Turning to fashion and leather goods on slide 12, revenue reached 10.5 billion euros for the first three months, up 2% on organic basis. After taking into account a negative 4% currency impact, revenue decreased by 2% on a reported basis. Moving on to slide 13, which details performance by brand. Louis Vuitton once again had a good start to the year. Nicolas Ghesquière celebrated a decade of consistent innovation as artistic director of women's collections, with a four-winter show held in the Cour Carrée at the Louvre. while Fire & Williams took Louis Vuitton on a journey to the American West for Men's Fall Winter Show and debuted vivid new colors for the emblematic Speedy Bag. The brand also hosted the first edition of the Louis Vuitton Watch Prize and opened a new store and an immersive visionary journeys exhibition in Bangkok. Christian Dior's creative momentum was illustrated by the good progress of Maria Grazia Chiuri and Kim Jones' ready-to-wear collections, with close to 390 million views for the light screen show of its 2024 Women's Winter Collection. Dior also unveiled a new flagship store in Geneva, The store was designed by Christian de Potempa, who had also designed your Seoul flagship in 2019. It's absolutely stunning and well worth a visit to the rue du Rhône where it is located. To give some highlights of happenings at other brands in the first quarter. Céline unveiled Hedi Slimane's distinctive Bibliothèque Nationale collection, and Céline Beauté announced the launch of its first lipstick, Rouge Triomphe, in the second half of this year. Loewe continued to benefit from the success of JW Anderson's fashion shows and unveiled his first major exhibition, Loewe Crafted World, which is currently open in Shanghai. Fendi further enriched its heritage celerial line, which is now almost 100 years young. And Loro Piana continued to expand in leather goods with the extra pocket and bale bags. Finally, Marc Jacobs celebrated its 40th anniversary. Rimova unveiled a new leather wrapping technique for its distinct suitcase line, while Berluti took inspiration from its historical store on the Rue Marbeuf for its Bivolute line. Moving to perfumes and cosmetics, on slide 15, revenue reached 2.2 billion euros for the first three months of 2024. This represents a 7% increase on an organic basis and a 3% increase on a reported basis after taking into account a negative 4% currency impact. Looking at the brand specifically on slide 16, Parfum Christian Dior enjoyed broad-based growth across geographies and all of its product categories, makeup in particular, driven by the relaunch of Rouge Dior, but also fragrances and skincare, where Sauvage, Capture, and the successful reinterpretation of Miss Dior by Francis Kurk-Jean significantly contributed to growth. Among other brands in this group, we again saw good momentum across geographies and product segments. Guerlain saw the successful extension of its star product lines, Abbey Royale in skincare and Aqua Alegria in fragrances. Parfum Givenchy enjoyed particularly strong progress of its irresistible fragrance and Prisme Libre makeup line, while several maisons expanded their regional footprint including Fenty Beauty, which recently entered China through a partnership with Sephora. Turning to watches and jewellery, on slide 18, revenue reached 2.5 billion euros for the first three months of 2024. this reflects a two percent decrease on an organic basis and a five percent decrease on a reported basis after taking into account a negative four percent currency impact and a positive one percent perimeter impact related to the first integration of jeweler of jewelry producer pedemonte For the key highlights of the division, on slide 19, Tiffany progressed towards its objective to increase the weight of its most distinctive product lines in the mix with the outperformance of the hardware and knot collections, as well as a 360-degree campaign showcasing the Maison's icons, which is displayed on this page, And Tiffany also continued to roll out its store concept, inspired by the landmark New York, where it launched its first exhibition, Culture of Creativity. Bvlgari enjoyed continued momentum in high jewelry and benefited from the rejuvenation of its B0 line, as well as category extensions across several major collections, such as Bvlgari Bvlgari, Serpenti, and Octo Watches. We're also excited to have announced the appointment of Bourguery's first ever creative director for leather goods, Marie Quatrantou, and also the creation of the Bourguery Foundation, dedicated to preserving cultural and craft heritage. Chaumet unveiled the design of the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic game medals, adorned with fragments of the Eiffel Tower. and saw particularly strong growth in high jewelry, while watchmakers Borgry, Taguerre, Hublot and Zenith presented a wide range of innovation at the AVMH Watch Week in Miami. Now turning to our final business group selective retailing on slide 21, revenue reached 4.2 billion euros. This reflects an 11% increase on an organic basis and a 5% increase on a reported basis after taking into account a negative 2% currency impact and a negative 3% perimeter impact related to the disposal of Starboard. On slide 22, Sephora had an excellent start to the year, with market share gains driven by strong growth across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, along with continued store expansion, especially in North America. Sephora also implemented the global unification of its brand signature, We Belong to Something Beautiful, And at DFS, the recovery of revenue remains gradual, as tourism recovery remains uneven. The retailer continued to move forward on its strategy and held a signing ceremony with Xenia Group, marking the official commencement of the DFS Yalong Bay project in Hainan to be opened in 2026. Finally, Le Bon Marché continues its strong momentum, driven by exceptional curation of products and animation. A few final remarks on this quarter to conclude this presentation. Firstly, to put some context on the revenue growth, the organic increase achieved in Q1 puts the average growth rate of the past five years at 10% for the group, and 16% for fashion leather goods, implying significant market share gains. Secondly, LVMH continues to benefit from the diversity of its brands and its carefully crafted regional balance. They've served us well in recent years and still do in the complex and economic geopolitical environment which continues to prevail. Finally, we will continue to invest selectively in our store network, the breadth and quality of which also proved a differentiating factor in recent years, whilst we will also endeavor to protect profitability. This concludes the presentation. Jean-Jacques and I are now available to answer your questions. As usual, if you wish to ask a question, please use the raise hand function of your application. Thank you. And the first question comes from Chiara Battistini from JP Morgan. Chiara, please ask your question.

speaker
Chiara Battistini
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Hello, hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. First question on the fashion and leather goods and nationalities trends. I was curious to get some more color on how Chinese, Europeans and Americans behave within that number. And notably for Europe, I see the group number for Europe. I was wondering if we could get the color between the tourist versus locals for fashion and leather goods specifically. And the second question is on Japan. That was very strong. Could you give us more color on how much pricing contributed to that number, please? Thank you very much.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Chiara. On the nationalities for fashion leather, I would say that Not much happened. If you look at Americans, Europeans, Japanese, I mean basically the trends that we've seen since Q3 last year, so slightly negative overall, are exactly the same in Q1 of this year. The big change is Chinese, the Chinese client base, the mainlanders client base, for two main reasons. The first one is that Q4, where the numbers were pretty high, was boosted by a very easy comparison base in Q4 2022, with the lockdowns taking place in, well, more than the lockdowns. I mean, the pandemic situation taking place in mainland China in q4 2022 so this was a high boost to the growth in the chinese client base in uh in q4 and secondly we are anniversarizing a pretty strong a pretty strong business uh last year in q1 following at the end of the zero covet policy and we are quite pleased to report that overall the mainland Chinese client base in Q1 was up about 10%, slightly below 10% for fashion and leather. So there are differences between brands, but overall the growth was about 10%. Your question about Japan, there was obviously some price impact, as we said last year, that we repeatedly increased prices in Japan to offset the weakness in the Japanese yen. Overall, the price impact was about 7% in the first quarter of this year.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Erwan Hombourg from HSBC.

speaker
Erwan Hombourg
Analyst, HSBC

um can you hear me yes yes we can oh thank you hi good afternoon and and well done on delivering growth despite the the context uh three quick questions on watches um sorry on on wines and spirits um i think you said champagne was down eight percent organically cognac down sixteen percent but depletions were a bit better i'm just wondering um if you can tell us when you think you'll be done with this sort of adjustment in terms of timing and maybe give us the level that you see in terms of depletion year on year to measure the gap between the two. Secondly, question on Louis Vuitton. I think in good times, you basically managed to upgrade consumers from canvas to leather. This is not a terrible time. You are growing, but I guess it's a tougher time. Are you seeing the role of canvas being more important in the short term? And how do you think about feeding maybe access price points to maybe rebuild the bridge to an aspirational consumer who might have been a bit under pressure? And then lastly, at the group level, I'm wondering if you could talk about the role that you see for the Olympics. Should we expect any important impact in terms of sales or margins for any of your brands? Will it move the needle for some of your assets? Thank you very much.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Erwan. So in the wine and spirit situation, In Cognac, sell-in, sell-out, obviously quite different situation, whether you're talking about the US or China. In the US, there was further destocking in Q1, which, to be frank, we did not expect. But the good news is that depletions overall consumer consumption was about flat in the first quarter of the year in Cognac, which is the first time in about 18 months that we see the business stabilizing. So it's encouraging, although we were a little bit surprised that there was further stocking and therefore the sell-in was not as good as the sellout. The level of inventories in the U.S. is quite low, was quite low at the end of February. I don't have it at the end of March, but I see no reason why it would be different. So the level of inventories is reasonably low. So this bodes well for the rest of the semester. So for the first time in many, many quarters, I'm reasonably hopeful as far as cognac is concerned in the U.S. In China, the situation is a little bit different. Our sell-out numbers during January and February, so by and large, Chinese New Year, were down a double digit in China. Our selling numbers were worse than that as we wanted to avoid at all costs the build-up of inventories, so we monitored that. fairly fairly tightly obviously as far as wine and spirit is concerned we don't get the same precision in in analysis that we get in retail businesses as these are not our own datas but we we we feel when we look at depletions it seems that the offtake the off trade segment is doing much worse than the on trade the on trade is not fabulous don't take me wrong but the off trade is doing much worse And conversely, we see that duty-free business in Asia is picking up quite significantly. So there are probably some connection between the two, although it's more difficult to assess than it would be for fashion leather in a retail or in any retail business. So that's the situation globally more hopeful in the US and wait and see as far as China is concerned. With regards to LV and your analysis of good times, leather, and bad times, canvas, frankly, it's not as simple as that. I mean, these two categories have their own dynamics mostly based on new product introduction. We have had very successful product introduction in leather over the last couple of years. We have had canvas product introduction that was successful last year and this year. So they have their own dynamics. We don't have a specific strategy as to the share of canvas versus leather. The breadth of the brand, as you know, is quite large and we try to satisfy the various segments of the customer base by offering product at different price segments and in different materials. The question on whether we could try to design product that would be more suited to the aspirational customers needs. Frankly, I don't think the situation of aspirational customers in the Western part of the world is connected in any way with the offer. The question is inflation, which is taking its toll with a particular intensity on this group of customers. And we see the same thing in the US and in Europe. And it's quite interesting that we don't see it in China. The reason why we don't see it in China is that there is no such thing, at least for the time being, as inflation in China. So I think as long as inflation will be a factor for this group of customers, we will not do miracles. And basically, we expect only a gradual improvement with this population in the coming quarters. Olympics, your third question. Well, Olympics will be complicated to manage obviously from a supply chain viewpoint in Paris. As we've seen in other capitals in which we had Olympics in the past, like Beijing or London, I mean, it's not a major boost to the business. Probably people have other things in mind, but it's not a catastrophe either. I mean, it's usually quite neutral, although it makes our life a little bit more complicated when it comes to supplying products into our stores.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Rogerio Fujimori from Stifo.

speaker
Rogerio Fujimori
Analyst, Stifel

Hi, Jean-Jacques. Hi, Rod. I have two questions. One on Asia-Pacific down 6%. I was wondering if you could give us some insights on how each product division perform relative to this group average. And for your jewellery, Maisons, could you talk the same comment you've made in terms of sales by nationality in the performance of jewellery versus watches? Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Roger. So Asia-Pacific is on average minus six. Wine and spirit is below that. And perfume and cosmetic is above. Otherwise, I mean, fashion and leather is not too far, a little bit better than the 6%. On jewelry, we've seen differences, obviously, between our brands. But all in all, I mean, the American customer is a bit negative, but not that negative. We've seen some swings and some volatility with Asian customers, and particularly Chinese customer, even within the first quarter. So the situation there is not that easy to analyze, particularly considering that we have implemented price increases during the first quarter, which are making the analysis quite complex. So, sorry, but I won't answer probably at the end of Q2. This question will be easier to address.

speaker
Rogerio Fujimori
Analyst, Stifel

And magnitude of the price increase? Sorry, Jean-Jacques, what was the magnitude?

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

It's 4% to 6%. I think it's 4% to 6% depending on the products.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

Thank you. Thank you, Rogerio. The next question comes from Susanna Putz from UBS.

speaker
Susanna Putz
Analyst, UBS

Thank you for taking my questions. I have three, but that's okay. So first of all, I know this is probably a question you would like, but is there any way you could maybe comment on the exit rate for fashion leather goods division? I'm specifically asking because I think there's an expectation that given still the TAF comparables, Q2 could be similar to Q1. So I was wondering if you could share any comments on that. Secondly, also flash-leather goods, maybe any comments on margin expectations for four-year or H1. I realize currencies are also very helpful, so I reported revenues down, so if there's any comment you could make. And finally, on the Chinese consumers, so it was very helpful you shared with us, they were up 10%. But any chance you could tell us what the mainline China, or at least what percentage of business is happening onshore and offshore?

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you. Thank you, Susanna. You know I love the question on exit rates. I usually don't answer, and I won't. The only thing I can say is that there was the usual volatility between January and February linked to the Chinese New Year being two weeks difference from one year to another. and March was close to the semester. So there were fluctuations, but nothing really significant as far as the month of March is concerned. On the margins for fashion and leather, I have no particular comment to make at this point in time. We'll see what happens in coming months. Obviously, we are working on that. We have an objective of stabilizing margins for the full year, as we said during the January conference, and I have no other comments to make. On Chinese, on and off, onshore and offshore, we are very close to Q4 average, i.e. something like 37%, 38%, obviously higher than the average for 2023, where we saw gradual increase in the share of tourists in the total. But it seems that Q1 is stabilizing at the same level as in Q4, obviously. When we look at where the Chinese, the mainlanders are shopping, it's a little bit different from what it was last year. If we compare Q1 to Q1, for instance, last year, the mainlanders were shopping 90% in Asia, whereas this year it's less than 80%. So it explains why there is a little bit of pressure obviously on Chinese sales, but also on Asian sales in this division, which is not particularly significant. I mean, as far as we are concerned, what is significant is that the Chinese cluster is growing by 10%. Where the business happens is not necessarily a source of concern on our side.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Ashley Wallace from Bank of America.

speaker
Ashley Wallace
Analyst, Bank of America

I have three questions as well, please. Within fashion and leather, could you help us understand the price mix and volume drivers within the 2% revenue growth number for the division? And then my second question is on perfume and cosmetics. A few weeks ago, Ulta called out a broad-based slowdown in the US beauty market and said it was across all categories, including premium. Can you please confirm if this is something that you're also seeing, or if possible, it would be great if you could give us some high-level regional comments on perfume cosmetics? And then my last question is actually about the DFS project that you're going to be opening in Sanya. Has it now been confirmed that Hainan will become a tax-free province in 2025? And how big do you think that that opportunity can be for you, given there are already some pretty big incumbent players in that market? And then connected to this, should we also expect to now start seeing many more directly operated stores open in Hainan for the group?

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Ashley. So fashion and price mix volume, the bulk of the growth was coming from price. I mean, there was a 2% price increase. And mix and volumes offset each other, but were not big numbers. So as you know, as our competitors are pretty short on details on this particular question, I give you a broad view, but not the full details. As far as the US beauty market is concerned, when we look at it, we don't see a major source of concern. The business has been pretty strong with Sephora and with our perfume and cosmetic division. during the quarter. The prestige business is doing well, so we have no particular signs of slowing down. Obviously, we were growing very strong WDG last year, It will not last forever, and it will normalize at some point. But the various categories we are operating in, particularly makeup, hair care, at Sephora are doing very well. So you've seen the numbers. I mean, they are pretty strong. And Sephora's numbers are higher than the selective distribution average numbers. So we have no particular fear for the quotas to come. This being said, this type of growth do not last forever. It happened in the past. And at some point, there is a slowdown or normalization in the market. We don't fear that particularly. But for the time being, we have no source of alarm as we speak. And on DFS, Sanya. No, we don't have confirmation yet. The timetable for confirmation isn't clear to me, but I think it is in the course of the next year, if I'm not mistaken. We have no reason to believe that it will not happen. As far as the competition is concerned, well, there is one sizeable project already under construction and our project is the second one. The other projects are, I would say, not of the same magnitude of these two projects in the south of the island. So we would expect, given the size, the global size of the market, that these two projects, including the one from DFS, will dominate the market, which will progressively turn, if not into duty paid, or at least in a model that will not be very different from what happens in Macau or Hong Kong, for instance. So we are very hopeful that our project will be one of the two leading projects in Sanya and in Hainan going forward.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Thomas Chauvet from Citi.

speaker
Thomas Chauvet
Analyst, Citi

Good evening. Jean-Jacques and Rodolphe, I hope you can hear me. Sorry for the background noise. Two questions, please. The first one on the U.S. You've historically provided a useful outlook for the U.S. Mr. Arnault sounded also quite upbeat about the U.S. luxury markets at the full year results earlier this year. He was calling out the presidential election perhaps as a catalyst. Did you share his optimism about this market? Could you just perhaps, on the back of Q1 and what you've seen in April, tell us how you think about the shape for the rest of the year, particularly perhaps between the upper-income and low-income demographics? Are you seeing major differences? Secondly, on fashion and weather, you commented on Canvas versus leather. Could you perhaps comment also on styles? The media has defined over the last year this idea of quiet luxuries, what's going to do better than fashion forward. Are you seeing major differences in growth of the past couple of quarters between your more fashion forward brand and more classic aesthetics? And does that also is translated into perhaps higher and price points doing better than lower end price points, particularly in leather goods. Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Thomas. US outlook, not my favorite question, obviously. What we said about the US market is actually you have two US markets. One is the market for aspirational customers, which I commented a bit already where we see these customers being, depending on the brands and the categories, but sizable portion of the business due to inflation are certainly under some form of pressure and we register disappointing numbers there and it's been going on for a while. The only thing I would say about that is that when you look, for instance, at fashion leather, we've been experimenting a slight improvement in the numbers over the last three quarters. I'm not saying this is there for good and we'll be showing double digit numbers in the near future. I'm just saying that there is a gradual improvement in the situation, which obviously comes from a less impactful aspirational customer in the total of the business. So our scenario would be a continuous strength from the top end customers and a gradual, a very gradual improvement from the aspirational customer. As far as the presidential election is concerned, You have a variety of situations, some being positive, some being negative. So I wouldn't dare making any comment on the outlook and what influence it could have on our business. On fashion and leather, basically what you're talking about is different styles attracting different people, which is exactly what we try to do within brands or within our portfolio of brands. Everybody's talking about quiet luxury now, fine. Quiet Luxury works well. I mean, if you look at the numbers of Loro Piana, for instance, they are clearly a testimony that Quiet Luxury is doing well. And really, the brand is moving from strength to strength. In other businesses, we discuss Chinese clients with fashion leather, which is still doing very well. Not all our brands are embracing the Quiet Luxury trend. So we need to do different things to different people. And it's up to our marketing and product team to be able to capture the different trends. And this is what we try to do. But we will not all of a sudden convert a business that is almost 50 billion euro into just quiet luxury. I mean, it has to be more diverse than that. But obviously, if quiet luxury is there to stay, we'll deal with that as we already do.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Antoine Belge from BNPPExam.

speaker
Antoine Belge
Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Yes, good day. Questions, first of all, just mentioned that Floropiana was doing very well. Sorry, Antoine, I missed a word out of two, so I didn't get your question, sorry.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

we can't hear you i mean the communication uh can you if if you want we take your questions later if you if you don't mind and you try uh but we can't get it yeah okay i was asking about uh division or sorry bronze division by division between the okay go ahead go ahead it sounds it sounds to be better go ahead

speaker
Antoine Belge
Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Okay. So within fashion and leather, were there brands that posted a negative trend since you said L'Europeana was very strong? My second question is about, I mean, would you say Q1 was in line with your expectation? And do you think that the normalization that you mentioned on a lot of your slides would be something that should maybe last one or two quarters, but not more? And finally, with currencies down 4% in Q1 on the top line, plus delayed impact of hedging from last year, what's the outlook for the impact of currencies this year if the currency don't move from the current level?

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Okay. Are there negatives? Not to surprise you, I will not answer, but basically what I can say about fashion and leather is that usually there is a little bit of volatility or dispersion around the average. This time around, not much. We have Vuitton slightly above, I said slightly, and we have Dior slightly below, I said slightly. Otherwise, I mean, we have a variety of situations. As I said, Laopiana is doing very well. I will not mention names. We have a division to avoid, to communicate on global numbers and to avoid finger pointing. So that's the idea. So I will not give you further details than that. Normalization is normalization compared to the past. Then when we had a very, very strong growth for a number of years, which was quite unusual, I would say, as far as the future is concerned, my crystal ball stayed in my office. I mean, I don't know. I mean, I will not dare getting into forecast on something which is basically impossible to forecast. I mean, we see diverse economic situation, diverse impact on customers. The link between macro and micro in our business is not easy. We clearly see that inflation is taking its toll. Otherwise, I mean, there are other situations. We'll see what happens. I cannot be more precise than that. For a very simple reason, I don't know. And certainly your question on currencies, Well, it depends very much on the US dollar because the US dollar has improved quite significantly over the last couple of days. So if you call me next week with the same question, maybe I will have a different answer. So I will not get into that. I mean, we expect globally that currencies will have overall during the year a slight negative impact on sales if everything stays the same, minus four in Q1. It will be some time before we cross the level for the yen and the renminbi that we are where we are today. So particularly the yen and the renminbi will create further pressure on currencies but diminishing as the year goes by. and probably a slightly higher impact on operating profit as we don't have the question that we got last year from the currency hedging. So the normal pattern of something like minus X in sales and usually something like two X in impact on operating profit, which is usually what we get. It's not a scientific relationship, If you take 10 years back, that's more or less what happened.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Edouard Aubin from Morgan Stanley.

speaker
Edouard Aubin
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, good evening, Jean-Jacques. On the Sephora, two questions. The first one is, could you just come back or explain why you're getting share, particularly in the US? I mean, what's kind of your secret sauce, number one. Number two, I saw that you withdrew, Sephora announced that it was withdrawing from Korea and then entering the UK. Is the Sephora business model better suited for the West at the end of the day than in Asia? I mean, it looks like progress in China has been quite slow so far. So if you could comment on that. And then lastly, if you look at Swiss watches, so we had watches and wonders last week in Geneva. Comments were generally quite cautious about the trajectory of the category for the remainder of the year, with a number of market participants expecting the market to be flat to down. What's kind of your view on this product category for the year? Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Edouard. Specifically in the US, I would mention two things. one is the fact that we suffered more than the others in the pandemic the reason being that our store format is very much biased toward downtown and shopping malls some competitors are more exposed to suburban malls which were favored by the client base during the the pandemic so we we had a tough time during the pandemic and exiting the pandemic is playing the other way around so so we benefit from from that people are back in the in the center of towns they're also back in the shopping malls and we benefit from that where the bulk of our stores are uh are present the second thing i would mention is that we have always particularly in the us put the emphasis on merchandising which has always been the key strengths of of sephora in the us and we never gave up on that we are still at the forefront of innovation in terms of brands in terms of of product and that's probably why the main reason uh why people are coming to to sephora sephora is not not just a engaging into a transactional relationship with her customers. It is also a place where people discover, try, and do other things than they would do in a traditional store. So we have always put a lot of emphasis on that. And it's no mystery to you that the head of merchandising is now the head of the Sephora business. no mystery. I mean, she's been spearheading this effort in terms of merchandising for many years, and she's uniquely qualified to be the head of the business going forward for that reason. Well, the reason why we closed Korea was that there was no winning strategy there. I mean, we reviewed that many, many times. It's a very competitive market. And the merchandising advantage was not entirely obvious in Korea, which is not so easy to penetrate. with non-Korean brands. So there was no winning strategy. So we decided to exit. I wouldn't draw the conclusion too quickly that this is significant of the fact that Sephora is not working well in Asia. There are markets, particularly like Singapore, where we are doing well. China, we are extremely hopeful that the merchandising effort that we are doing today will pay off at some point. Obviously, if we keep on competing at full price with discounted product in China coming from Daegu or parallel trade, this is not going to work. But we have other idea about this market. And we are extremely hopeful that CFOA will develop a strong presence there, playing the differentiation factor. Not the mainstream, but the differentiation factor. As far as watches are concerned, well, I confirm that we are not particularly optimistic. I mean, we don't expect a catastrophe, but the messages that we got from the clients at Watches and Wonders were the same as the one that our competitors got and that you reported. So we don't expect a fabulous year. Not necessarily a bad one either, but not a great year.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Lucas Olgao.

speaker
Lucas Olgao
Analyst

Yes, good evening, Jean-Jacques Rodolphe. I have a question on Japan. There's quite clearly a spillover of Asian consumers and Chinese consumers going to Japan because of the weekend. I'm wondering where does Japan stand in terms of pricing relative to the standard geopricing gaps that you would want to have in that region. Despite price increases in Japan, it does seem to be that Japan continues to be more compelling, even the weak yen. The second question, looking at this sort of speed over in the other direction, You have probably pointed out to Chinese consumers spending more abroad than initially anticipated. Looking at your retail network pipeline in China and the number of projects that are underway, are you comfortable with the number of stores? Is that going to be attuned to the number of Chinese consumers that you expect to shop in the mainland? despite this trend to buying overseas. Last but not least, you were pointing out that Tiffany has been developing in other product segments, most importantly in the design jewelry collection. I wonder how big is today the stone-driven business, the one focused on diamonds, and sort of the private business, and how much of a concern in your mind would be underground diamonds growth in that market? Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Luca. So Japan prices are still significantly below Chinese prices on average. I mean, it depends. It varies a little bit from one brand to another. but we are selling at a 10% premium to the European prices when China sells at 20, 22% premium. So there is a sizable difference between the two markets. And despite the frequent price hikes that we have mentioned already last year, the drop in the yen has been causing prices once converted in other currencies to look interesting compared to other geographies in the region. Your second question about China network, Obviously, this is a question that has been agitating us for a while. But bear in mind that during the pandemic, we more than doubled the local business in China without really opening a lot of square meters. There were only so much we could do during the pandemic years to enlarge properties that we had. And frankly, we didn't do much in 2021 and 2022. Progressively, some projects are being opened and will help us limit the saturation of some existing stores. When you double or even more than that, a business without adding square meters, obviously you reach a very high profitability and productivity, which is a good point. But in terms of client service, at some point it becomes necessary to enlarge the network, to diminish productivity, but to do a better job with the client. This is exactly what we are doing. I think what's going on with the Chinese customers visiting our stores outside China is not a surprise. The magnitude of it is not a surprise. We are where we expected to be. So I think all in all, I mean, this is well under control and we have no particular headaches on that. Your question, Antifany, I had a little bit of a hard time hearing you on that. Your question is about the stone-driven business and the threat caused by grown lab diamonds to this business, if I understand correctly. We view lab-grown diamonds as a different business. I mean, the origin, I don't have to insist on the fact that the origin of the diamond, the lab-grown diamonds is different than the natural ones. and we are playing more the complementarities than the competition between the two. There are certain things you can do with lab grown that you cannot do with natural diamond. I mean the ability to put together shapes that wouldn't exist or that wouldn't be achievable through polishing and cutting is something we can do with lab grown, we cannot do with natural diamonds. So they are probably, moving forward, will keep, obviously, the natural diamonds for their value. I mean, the connection with love, I mean, a diamond is forever, et cetera, is extremely important. And if it was created 10 minutes ago in a lab, the message and the emotion is not exactly the same. This being said, there are plenty of things we can do with lab-grown diamonds, particularly in terms of shape. and that we couldn't do otherwise. So we'll try to figure out in the years to come what goes where, and we don't see that as a threat, but as things that could actually cohabitate within the same brand to do different things.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Louis Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs.

speaker
Louis Singlehurst
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good evening. Hi, John, Jack, Rod. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I'll stick to two, if I could do, please. Just firstly, in terms of how we think about the cluster and the nationality and obviously the regional growth, there's a lot to take in. And I guess it's quite difficult for us to think about the forecast when you're seeing Asia pack minus 10, minus 6, and then you're seeing fashion leather, the Chinese cluster up 10. Just taking a step back, I wonder if you can help us think about the clusters where you find it hardest to kind of read the trends. Is it the US aspirational? Is it the Chinese cluster? That sounded as though you're seeing less volatility in the Chinese cluster, given the comments about the US aspirational. And then my second question, I wonder if you can give us any indication about the way that you're thinking about the cost and the budgeting. I know this is a sales call, but there was obviously some extra cost saving that came in at the second half of last and then we had a very good finish to the year. But I wonder if that cost saving mentality across the business has continued into the first half or any additional incremental action has been taken. Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Louise. Well, obviously the Chinese cluster was by far the most difficult to forecast. The main reason being that the comparison base in 2023 was very biased due to the ups and downs of the pandemic and the zero COVID policy in China, the ups and downs of some opening. I mean, for a while, only Macau was the non-Chinese or non-mainland market to be open and accessible to mainlanders. And then there was Hong Kong and Japan came at a later stage, et cetera. So the basis of in 2023 is far from being easy. The percentages are biased by the 2022 reference. And even in 2023, it was not a level playing field. I mean, it took a while for the market to stabilize. So at the end of the day, we are quite happy, as I said, with the growth with the Chinese clients in the Q1 of this year. The level of, as I said, also the level of non-domestic business is where we expected it to be. Where it happened, as I alluded to at the beginning of this conversation, was a bit different. I mean, the fact that there would be some pressure from the Chinese customer shopping outside Asia was not expected. The global level could have been expected, but where it happens is totally impossible to predict. So that's where we are. Again, we are totally agnostic as to where the business with mainlanders takes place, whether it is in China, whether it is elsewhere in Asia, or whether it is outside Asia. So I would say we don't care too much as we get the business, and we do get the business. Your second question is about cost savings. Well, I'd rather not answer any question because if I start, I mean, we'll be there for the rest of the evening. So I'd rather not answer any question on cost and margins. We'll discuss that in July when we release our H1 numbers. And for the time being, let's stick to revenues, please.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Charles-Louis Scotty from Kepler Showroom.

speaker
Charles-Louis Scotty
Analyst, Kepler

Yes, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one, within watches and jewelry, were there great disparities in terms of the brand performance between Bulgari and Tiffany during the quarter? And more specifically at Tiffany, could you share with us more details on the brand performance across the different regions or nationality? And then my second question on pricing, it seems that you have not increased price across fashion and as a good brand since October, November last year, except on some very specific SKUs. We have seen that some of your competitors have remained quite aggressive this year with mid to high single digit price hikes. Of course, you never comment on forthcoming price increases, but could you help us understand what will be your pricing strategy for the fashion and the divisions going forward, besides obviously the ethics-driven price adjustments? Thank you very much.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Charles-Louis. So watches and jewelry, are there disparities between brands? The answer is yes. Same reason that we mentioned a few times already. the the breakdown of bulgari and tiffany by geographies is not at all the same so they are there is a almost half of the business for tiffany being done in the us with a high exposure to the aspirational customer so obviously this has been taking its toll in the last four or five quarters, as we explained many times. Bulgaria is much more exposed to the Asian customers and the Chinese one in particular, which remained positive in the first quarter of the year. So at the end of the day, we see meaningful differences between the two, not necessarily on a country-by-country basis, but overall the mix being so different, it generates a very different growth at the end of the quarter. Your second question about pricing, remember what I said during the conference in January, we try to avoid it as much as we can. I mean, pricing could be there if we have to offset inflation or if we have to offset fluctuations in currencies, and we try to limit the use of pricing for that purpose only. Otherwise, I mean, the main source of growth in our brands is mix, as I said many times. which is not increasing prices, which is selling more expensive items on average. So our philosophy on pricing has not changed. We use it when we have to use it, but as little as we can.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Charmaine Yap from Redbone.

speaker
Charmaine Yap
Analyst, Redbone

Thank you. Yes, my question is on fashion leather again, in terms of weakness of the aspirational customer. But isn't it also a function of brands increasing prices rather quickly? Some of your iconic products at Vito have increased 30%, 40% over two years or doubling in five years. And as market leaders, a lot of people follow suit. So do you think you've gone a bit too much too soon, and hence the aspirational customer are priced out? Or do you think a sufficient product innovation the entry price points? And also, if we add on the mix component at Vuitton, which you have always mentioned, I don't know, past 15, 20 years, Would you think that there's another brand that can now fill in the gap that Vuitton has left? Maybe I don't know, perhaps Loewe can fill in that gap a little bit more. And in terms of e-commerce relating also to fashion leather, can you comment on the penetration? Assuming it's a drag, how has the drag trended across the quarters? Is it less of a drag now? And how do you view this channel given the shift back to traffic to stores? Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Good question on aspirational customer. Obviously, price have increased, no doubt. We had repeated price hikes coming either from currencies, but more importantly from inflation that we had to reflect. And sometimes we anticipated a little bit taking advantage of the strong demand to avoid doing too much too late. No doubt that the aspirational customer has to adjust to that new normal. It's not going to take five minutes. We know that. But we also know, as was pointed out before, that most of our competitors have been doing the same. So I'm not particularly worried as to the acceptancy of the new level of price from aspirational customers. It's just that it is going to take time as we can see on the market. So no worry, but be patient. Your second question was on mix. Sorry, I missed that. E-commerce drag. No, e-commerce was not a drag. E-commerce could have a lower growth rate than it used to have, but it's a function of availability of product. If products are being sold in stores, we see no necessity to put a lot of them onto the e-commerce and vice versa. So basically, I would view the fact that e-commerce is growing less than stores as a good sign of the health of the store channel, which is obviously by far the most important for us.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Chris Gao from CLSA.

speaker
Chris Gao
Analyst, CLSA

Okay, thank you. Hi, good afternoon. Thanks very much for the opportunity. I have two questions. Firstly, it's regarding the Chinese national spending. Since we're now seeing 10% worldwide growth on Chinese for fashion leather goods, so I just want to follow up a bit on how does Chinese spending on jewelry and watches compare with the number in soft luxury? Do you see market share gain of your jewelry brands among Chinese national? And the second question is about the performance by price points perspective for your hard luxury. So right now for your overall consumer, do you see faster growth of high jewelry versus entry level? And how does that look like among Chinese specifically? So how much do you expect your price mix could be helping with the hard luxury sales? Or maybe a small follow-up is regarding your advertisement planning for Tiffany. We noticed quite a few store revamp ongoing for Tiffany during our Europe Roadshow and Mainland China Roadshow. We also noticed Tiffany's great advertisement investment on Ctrip. which is a good move with ideal traffic right now on the online side. So we're just wondering if you can share more about the seasonality of your brand investment for Tiffany this year, and if there's any change of your expectation on jewelry Maison's operating leverage after your 1Q results. Thank you. These are all my questions.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Chris. So the watches and jewelry was a bit below China, fashion and leather. For the Chinese cluster, I will not go into details. It would be basically revealing more or less what we do with individual brands, which I don't intend to do. Your question about aspirational versus top-end customers, whether it's relevant in Asia, as I said, not too much. We see less of a difference, probably because there is less inflation. We see less of a difference between the various groups. of customers or the various groups of products or the different price points. It's much more homogeneous in Asia and particularly in China than it is in the Western world where we see a clear difference between top end and entry price. It's not the same in Asia. Your question about Tiffany and the store revamp and advertising, obviously we are making a big push in both branding and distribution, as we said many times. This is part of the strategy that we are implementing moving forward, so there is no particular seasonality there. We are extremely determined to push the brand and its business, particularly in Asia. So we are making sizable investment into this part of the world, which is obviously very important going forward. And there is no particular seasonality. really have a clear feeling that whenever we revamp a store in Asia, this is the place in the world where the yield is highest. I mean, we usually get pickup in sales that are quite significant and are better than any other region in the world. So we obviously push that as much as we can, but there is always so much we can do in terms of store revamping on a yearly basis. So no particular seasonality, but this is money that is worth investing.

speaker
Rodolphe Fosin
Director of Financial Communications, LVMH

The next question comes from Liwei Hu from CICC.

speaker
Liwei Hu
Analyst, CICC

Thank you, and good evening, Jean-Marc and Rodolphe. It's Jean-Jacques.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

I'm sorry.

speaker
Liwei Hu
Analyst, CICC

It's Jean-Jacques. Sorry. Pardon.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

I've not been around for so long, so you could.

speaker
Liwei Hu
Analyst, CICC

Apologies.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

No, no. It's all right. Don't worry. Don't worry.

speaker
Liwei Hu
Analyst, CICC

Yes. Thank you, Jean-Jacques. Three questions. First of all, apart from Vuitton, what do you think will be the next growth driver for fashion leather goods? which has exceeded 42 billion euro last year, and DL is slowing down. So that's my first question. And the second one, 10% growth for Chinese cluster on fashion leather goods. Will you say it's more polarized towards high-end clientele versus before? And the third one, is given our commitments to protect margins. Would that mean we have a more controlled investment in the first quarter, i.e. we are prioritizing margins over top line and did not unleash the full potential of revenue growth? Thank you very much.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Thank you, Li. The next growth drivers for fashion leather are in order of magnitude Vuitton, Dior, Celine, Fendi, etc. I mean, the main strength of this portfolio is the portfolio itself. The fact that we have many brands and all of them can play their part in the growth of the businesses they have done in the past. And the first rank will be Vuitton. It's by far the largest of the group and it's on Vuitton that we are counting moving forward to develop the business. And there have always been questions as to the ability of Vuitton to grow further. I've been 20 years with the group and I've heard that since I joined. And this brand has always been able to reach new frontiers in the past. And we hope to do exactly the same with Dior, with a different positioning, but the same extraordinary potential moving forward. The second question is the 10% growth polarized toward high-end with mainlanders. The answer is no. As I said, I mean, we don't see this discrepancy between entry price and top-end with Chinese clients in the same way as we see it in the Western world. So the short answer is no. And certainly the question on protecting margins and whether this could have some impact on revenue growth as we underinvest in the business. This is not FMCG. I mean, I will not directly answer the question, but this is not FMCG. The link between marketing and investment, marketing investment and sales is not immediate and totally mathematic. I mean, basically we invest behind the brands to boost desirability. Boosting desirability is an art and not a science. If it was a science, it would be purely quantitative and we would just... put money at all times behind the brand and that would trigger some uh some increase in revenues it's unfortunately or fortunately i don't know i would say fortunately not as simple as that and the last question comes from paula carboni from equitasim

speaker
Paula Carboni
Analyst, EquitaSim

Okay. Hi. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a very quick one on champagne. If you can comment a little bit on the inventory situation here and what are you seeing on final demand? And secondly, also very quickly on Sephora, if you can give us an idea to what extent growth is being driven by ongoing store network expansion, namely in the US, and to what extent this should continue to be a driver. So what is your target here or your strategy here in terms of network expansion for Sephora? Thank you.

speaker
Jean-Jacques Guigny
Chief Financial Officer, LVMH

Okay, so on Champagne, I mean, you've seen the numbers. They are not fabulous. I mean, we definitely have weakness in demand, particularly in Western Europe, where we see quite a severe weakness, particularly of trade, less so on trade. We've seen that in the past. I mean, from time to time, there could be a severe drop in the business and it comes back. But for the time being, that's a tough situation to manage. On Sephora, the bulk, the vast majority of the growth comes from like for like. There is obviously a little impact from additional stores, but not a major one. Bear in mind that the calls association we have, I mean, the business we do with calls, we don't count the sales that are done with calls. I mean, we get revenues from that, but we don't consolidate the sales that we do there. And it's a bulk of the store count expansion over the last few years. So it has no impact whatsoever on or very limited impact on revenues. Thank you. Thank you for attending this call tonight. And we look forward to discussing with you full H1 numbers at the end of July in the middle of the Olympics. Thank you so much. Good night.

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