10/23/2023

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning and welcome to Megacobly's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With us this morning from Megacobly, we have Mr. Enrique Yamuni, CEO, Mr. Armando Fernandez, Deputy CEO, and Mr. Luis Zeller, CFO. Let me remind you that the information discussed in today's earnings call may include forward-looking statements on the company's future financial performance and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Megacably undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Enrique Yamune. Sir, you may begin.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I would like to provide you with an overview of our company's performance and highlight the significant advances we made this quarter. Similar to the previous periods, the company's results this quarter were characterized by the ongoing execution of the expansion plan. This is now being reflected in the revenue growth in the MAS segment, the highest recorded since 2018. Overall, our growth trajectory remains positive with expectations for further improvement towards the coming years. In terms of homes passed, this is the strongest quarter ever. We're moving ahead of our initial objectives for the year, taking advantage of the current market conditions, both in terms of economics and competition. By year end, we would have surpassed more than 6 million homes passed of this initiative, including 2022 and 2023, and over 60 new cities. We have a clear plan when respect to our infrastructure based on two main edges. One, fiber deployment is in new areas. As of today, we have more than 5 million homes passed of state-of-the-art full fiber technology from our CTCs all the way to the subscriber premises, including OTT, Android TV, set-top boxes, and ONTs, Wi-Fi, broadband modems, to guarantee the best experience for the subscribers. As of quarter end, more than 33,000 kilometers have been converted from our HSC legacy technology to 100% fiber network, including what we did in previous years. Once again, a full fiber network with all the technological advances we can offer. As of today, 62% of our network is 100% fiber to the home. These initiatives are not related to replace only the last mile and keeping the same technology that the subscriber already had. This is a complete state-of-the-art new network that improves the capacity from the backbone to the subscriber end and allow us to present great products, very superior than our competitors. The rest of our network that remains with HFC technology has been upgraded to 500 and 200 homes per node, depending on the market, guaranteeing the best performance and speed until the project of comparing mega to 100% fiber takes place in the future years. Our full fiber vision is right on track. All the previous mentioned has been possible at the lower cost in the industry proof of the efficiency culture embedded in the company. Turning to operational performance, it is encouraging to see a contribution of NEDAS in both our legacy and new territories. Regarding our churn rate performance, we believe the slight increase recorded was within the expected range. Considering the price adjustments made earlier this year, In the aggressive growth strategies of the last periods aimed at capturing the market in the new territories, we continue to look for a more efficient model of sales, including promotional rates and subscribers quality to support the growth of the company. Something we're proud of is that after so many years of strong competition by not just but several companies, we keep the highest market share in our organic territories, we clearly must be doing something right. On the financial side, the quarter's revenue growth was mainly driven by the significant increase in mass market revenues, in line with the continuous subscriber increase recorded in the last period. It is worth mentioning that we register revenues as received by our subscribers. So we have a real subscriber increase. Regarding EBITDA margin, we saw a slight contraction as a result of our expansion. On that line, it's very relevant to note that this quarter, the margin of the expansion territories is already positive. Our balance sheet remains robust. due to our prudent and strategic management as reflected by HR ratings pre-affirmation of our investment grade, quite in line with the fees ratings credit action of June. Regarding leverage, it remains a very similar leverage when compared to the last quarter, well under the industry average. As we have stated before, we are planning to issue additional debt in the first half of next year. Given our cap as management, we are confident that after the issuance, our cash generation will be enough to cover our investment plan, emphasizing both network expansion and technological upgrades in legacy territories. In summary, our expansion project was conceived and approved by the Board at the end of 2021 and began its operation in the third quarter of 2022. So after 15 months of this initiative, we can agree that it remains as the right decision. We have created a company with double this growth in revenue with a manageable leverage in doubling the size of its infrastructure by 2024 with a complete transition to fiber technology. Thank you for your attention and now I hand the call to Raimundo for a deep drive into our operational performance. Raimundo, please go ahead.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Thanks, Enrique, and good morning, everyone. Building on last quarter's momentum, our operational performance continues to be driven by a combination of our expansion into new territories, technological evolution, and the continued growth in the legacy footprint, all of it with a focus on customer satisfaction. Starting with our infrastructure efforts, we added another 4.3 thousand kilometers of fiber this quarter and expanded our reach to an additional 1.1 million homes. This achievement brings our yearly total home paths to over 3 million, with a total figure of 14.5 million home paths, meaning that we are ahead of our CAPEX spending and we have almost completed our goal of new home paths for the year. Moving into technological evolution, during this quarter, we converted an additional 360,000 home paths from HFC to FTTH in the legacy territories, reaching more than 760,000 for the full year for a total of close to 9 million full fiber home paths in the company. As you can see, we have a very clear vision of the future of the company, and we have been executing in that regard. The more than 55,000 kilometers of fiber to the home network that we have are a reality. And this has been reflected in the quality of the services we can provide, improving our customer satisfaction KPIs. It is relevant to note that this quarterly cap figure includes an advance in the expansion and conversion kilometers, as well as in the CPEs that we will need in the future. Regarding our subscriber metrics, We continue with a solid growth trend. As Enrique mentioned, we are reinforcing our sales and marketing staff to keep a stronger pace of activations to better capitalize on our modern infrastructure. We recorded a 12% year-over-year increase in unique subscribers, reaching 4.8 million. This growth consists of over 523,000 net additions, including 106,000 from this quarter. In the internet segment, there was a 14% year-over-year growth, totaling 4.6 million subscribers or 551,000 net additions. Sequentially, this segment added 116,000 subscribers, with our ongoing speed upgrades further strengthening our reputation as a market leader. Both our state-of-the-art fiber network and robust HFC technology are unique in facilitating these upgrades. Significantly, 83% of our subscriber base now has high-speed connections of 60 megabits or higher, up from approximately 54% during the same period last year. Our video subscriber reached 3.9 million, a growth of 8%, or 297,000, compared to the third quarter of 2022. And with 43,000 at this quarter alone, maintaining its solid growth trend. The XView platform user base grew by 27% year-over-year, reaching 2.7 million subscribers. Concurrently, XView's set-top boxes are now in over 4.1 million homes. The unique features and functionalities of the XView, coupled with the monthly interaction of more than one 108 million, underlining its importance within our value proposition. Telephony saw a growth of 20% year-over-year, reaching 3.9 million subscribers. This was translated into 643,000 net additions with 144,000 from this quarter. The performance is attributed to the penetration into new markets with bundles that include telephony services. By the end of this quarter, REUs reached more than 12 million, marking a 14% growth from last year. REUs per unique subscriber this quarter averaged 2.58, up from 2.54 during the same period last year. Now, the MVNO segment showed a 1% and 6% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth, respectively, standing at 414%. thousand subscribers. This highlights our focus on quality post-paid customers. Our churn rate for internet video and telephony are 2.1%, 2.3%, and 2.2% respectively, reflecting a slight increase when compared to the previous quarter. This is explained by the rate increases and the aggressive growth and commercial campaigns of the previous quarter. The gross ads of the quarter remain at the same levels on a sequential comparison. both higher than those of the third quarter of last year. The approach of the company remains to prioritize the gross ads that will remain in the long term, looking for the right balance with the short rate. The ARCO per unique subscriber remained resilient at 418.7 pesos, an increase of 1% versus the same period last year. On a sequential basis, it practically remained at the same levels when compared to the second quarter of 2023. This is mainly due to the rate increases we have performed, which offset the promotional rates offering new territories. Regarding ARPU per service, while internet and video ARPU increased by 3% and 1% year-over-year, respectively, telephony saw a 4% decrease. However, the MVNO service ARPU grew by 29% year-over-year, emphasizing our strategy of prioritizing quality revenues over quantity. On the corporate telecom front, revenue remained flat when compared to the same quarter of last year, with MetroCarrier and MCN registering growths of 2% and 5%, respectively. In the case of MetroCarrier, the decrease is based on a thought comparison effect due to the extraordinary revenues recorded in third quarter 22. Excluding this effect, the quarterly increase should have been 12%. OLA's revenue decreased 18% as a result of a slowdown in the projects by life and more restrictive credit conditions after a strong first half of the year. Going forward, we expect a strong end of the year for OLA in line with the seasonality of this business. Wrapping up, we remain optimistic about our business strategy as we get closer to the end of the building phase of our expansion project. We are now focused on speeding up the pace of the sales to fully reflect growth. Our efforts in infrastructure expansion, alongside our commitment to technological transformation, mark a promising future, featuring sustainable growth and unmatched service delivery. Thank you for your time. Now, I'll hand over the call to Luis for a deeper dive into the financial insights.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Thank you, Raimundo. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. The solid performance of the mass market, with revenues for the quarter increased 14% when compared to the third quarter of 2022, drove an 11% increase in the total consolidated revenues compared to the same period last year to reach 7.5 billion pesos. In the same line, revenue from the mass segment rose to 6.2 billion pesos, as revenues from the internet, video, and telephony services increased by 18, 10, and 11% respectively. Compared to last year, while the MVNO business maintained a strong growth, marking a 25% year-over-year hike, reflecting our focus on subscribers with a higher ARPU contribution. Within the corporate segment, revenues remain at the same level year over year, reaching around 1.3 billion pesos. Metro Carrier had a tough comparison, as mentioned by Raimundo, due to the non-recurrent revenues recorded in the quarter of 2022, but it still grew 2%. On the other hand, all have faced an 18% decline due to seasonality, recording a slowdown after two strong quarters. Nevertheless, on a cumulative basis, this segment continues with a 12% year-over-year revenue increase. In terms of revenue distribution, the mass segment accounted for 83% of the company's total revenue, with the corporate segment contributing the remaining 17%. Turning to expenses. The cost of services increased to 2.1 billion pesos, a 20% annual growth. Meanwhile, the SD&A expenses increased 14%, totaling approximately 2 billion pesos. This rise mainly reflects the overall expansion of our operations, highlighting labor due to both employee growth and regulatory factors, such as minimum wage increase, vacations, and retirement bonus. among others. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter stood at 3.3 billion pesos, an increase of 4% from previous year with a 44.1% margin. On a sequential basis, consolidated EBITDA was virtually unchanged from the second quarter of 2023. However, it recorded a margin contraction of 40, sorry, 50 basis points. As mentioned in the past conference calls, Our recent investments will continue to put some pressure on those results as we head into the fourth quarter of 2023. As Enrique mentioned, EBITDA for the expansion territories turned positive, while the EBITDA margin in organic territories remained at 48%. This quarter net income amounted to 531 million pesos, a decrease when compared to the same period in 2022. The primary factors include an increase in DNA resulting from our significant infrastructure investment and the increase in financial expenses triggered by rising interest rates and the debt assumed to support our expansion projects. It is crucial to recognize that these expenses correspond to strategic investments for future growth and emphasize Sorry, enhanced profitability. Moving into the balance sheet. As of September 2023, net debt totaled broadly 18.9 billion pesos, an increase from 10.3 billion pesos as of the same period in 2022. However, it's slightly above what the people reported in the second quarter of this year. The search follows our focus to accelerate expansion and commercial debt contracted in recent periods. including a loan of 1.7 billion pesos obtained in this quarter. Nevertheless, it is important to mention that our net debt to EBITDA ratio remains at 1.46 times, well below the industry levels, granting us the wide financial flexibility for upcoming expansion efforts. For the year end, we expect this metric to remain under control below our target levels And as we have stated in previous calls, we should see an increase in the first half of 2024, following the issuance of additional debt to refinance our short-term maturity. We count on sufficient financial sources to finish the main phase of our expansion plan, in addition to our comfortable debt and cash flow position. Meanwhile, the interest coverage ratio remains solid, staying at nearly six times over the last 12 months, demonstrating our strong capacity to meet interest obligations. For this quarter, CAPEX was over 3.8 billion pesos, summing up 8.9 billion pesos year-to-date, representing 40% of the accumulated revenues. It's important to highlight that excluding the advanced subscriber equipment received in this quarter, Woodward has been at the 36% to 38% level year-to-date, as mentioned in previous calls. These investments have been aimed towards our expansion into new territories, and specifically this quarter, we have anticipated spending in subscriber equipment that will support our growth for the rest of the year. To conclude, while our aggressive growth endeavors as associated investments have shortly impacted certain lines of the P&L, we remain confident in their success at the long term. The potential of our new territories, combined with a strong commitment to operational efficiency and financial prudence, encourage us to anticipate a stable closing of the year and a promising outlook for 2024. Thank you for your time and attention. I will hand it back to the operator for the Q&A session. Operator?

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, please press star one and let us know your name and company you work for. Our first question comes from the line of Vitor Tomita with Goldman Sachs.

speaker
Vitor Tomita
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hello, good morning all, and thanks for taking our questions. The first question from our side is if you could give a bit more color on your strategy for promotions in new territories and accelerating penetration, and on how that might interact with churn rates, given that, as I understand, the slight increase in churn that we saw in this quarter was partly driven by price readjustments and by past promotions. Second question from our side would be if we should expect a relevant deceleration in new homes past and in CapEx in Q4, considering the strong base so far in 2023 and considering that you already acquired extra CPEs to support growth through the end of the year, as mentioned in there in this release. Thank you.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Sure, Victor. Thank you for your question. As we say, regarding the strategy and the short, it was related to the price increase that we have at the end of the second quarter, pretty much that's when we have. That affects us in the third quarter. That's normal for both for existing organic and expansion territories. In the expansion territories, we have the end of the promotional campaigns, and we have a slide that is related to the price increase. Related to promotions, as we say, we did not increase the number of gross ads. We remain at around 400,000 gross ads for the period. And we did not increase because we tied the we put a lot more effort into quality of subscribers. We want to increase that number, and that's the key for our expansion in the future, but it has to be in a very good balance between quality of subscribers and the price they are paying. So what we're doing in those territories is also less promotional in terms of months that they pay, and we could not increase the number and that affect. The main affections that we have are seasonality of the short and the rate increases, so we should focus on that. Now looking into the forecourt that you are, as we stand in our opening remarks, we were very successful in accelerating the capex and the number of kilometers. We already have 3 million home paths for the year. We expect to open, to cover another around 750,000 more home paths for the end of the year. That will reach 3.750,000 home paths for the year, which is very remarkable for a company this size and for the amount of capex that we're investing on that. Capex for the fourth quarter, therefore, it will be lower than what we're experiencing in the third quarter, mostly because Because, as I said, we increased the speed of the kilometers that we're building for this third quarter. We were very successful on that. And also because we have the CP equipment for those subscribers for the future months to come, you know, for the future future. So those are the two answers probably to your question. And thank you again for the question, Victor.

speaker
Victor

Thank you very much. Very clear.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Marcelo Santos with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

speaker
Marcelo Santos
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. The first is if you could comment a bit on competitive environment and if that had any impact on the churn, if it had. And the second, if you could reiterate your CapEx outlook. In the previous calls, you were saying something that around next year should have a similar level of CapEx to Ravians than this year going down. in 2025 and then getting closer to low to mid-20s in 2026. I just wanted to know if that's still the plan or if there are any updates to that. Thank you.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Thank you, Marcelo. Yes, regarding the competitive environment, as you know, all our markets receive a strong competition for competition. We believe the state-of-the-art network that we have and the great quality of the XView marked the difference also with the efficiency in the ARPU that we provide on this part. We are bringing and expanding our subscribers both, and I want to be very clear on that, we have growth in subscribers both in organic and expansion territories for the year and for the quarter. So that means we are taking subscribers away from competition. and we are increasing the market penetration in the systems where we are on that part. Total play, as you know, is not increasing anymore, the number of home paths. They already have between 17 and 8 million, I believe 17 and a half million home paths. Televisa has the largest footprint with 19.5 million home paths, and of course, American Mobile more than we have. We're very, very proud that after having nine million home paths when we started this project, 3.9, now we're down to 14 million and a half. That is bringing 62% of our network fully fiber. So we can provide the best speeds in the market, not below the competition, but more than the competition even when you consider that we're full fiber in those markets. And then the LHC systems are... As we present or Enrique remarked, we already split all the nodes to 500 and 250 from that. So we have the speech to provide that. We are very well positioned and with a lower R1 good product. That's why we are growing. We are right on track in infrastructure. We say we were going to double the size of the infrastructure of the company in the first two to three years. We're going to do that in two years. You have to consider that we started July 2022, the project, and we are now September 2023. We will double the amount in two years of that, and we are still looking into having double the size by the end of 2026 or 2027 beginning. We don't see why we shouldn't have that right on that. Looking at CAPEX, but I know everybody is concerned on that part. We, as I said, accelerated CAPEX for third quarter, taking advantage of the speed and capacity that we have to deliver and also, why not, the exchange rate that we have on that part. So we decided to speed up the process. That brings CAPEX down in the years to come. That's something you guys want to hear and that's something that is going to happen. If we're building this year around 26,000 kilometers of fiber construction, we're going to go down next year because of that speed. to 40% less kilometers than what we have. That's going to take pressure away from the capital over revenues. And what we foresee is getting to the levels of 15% to 20%. That's going to take time. That's going to take two or three, getting to 2027 pretty much. That's where we're going to reach that. But we will decrease from the 40% that we have. We sure will be decreasing to that amount year over year. So you will expect lower capex over revenue for 2024 for sure. I cannot give you more for five years, but I can give you that next year we're going to have a lower capex over revenue ratio. That will be our math. I don't know, Luis, if you're missing something.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Yeah, 2024 will be on low to mid-30s, and then we will reach mid-20s. And yes, as Raimundo said, we will be by 26%, 27%, around 20% or even below.

speaker
Marcelo Santos
Analyst, JP Morgan

You said the range you gave was 15% to 20%. Is that right, Enrique, 15% to 20%? Or should we consider just 20% or below?

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Yeah, it will be around 20%. Even below is a possibility. But for now, let's stay with 20%.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

But in the years to come, after we finish all the expansion and we stabilize what we have, that's why I say by 2028, you should be looking at close to 20 or between 15 to 20. Luis doesn't want me to say that. Let's leave it at 20.

speaker
Marcelo Santos
Analyst, JP Morgan

Perfect. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Next question comes from the line of Carlos Lagareta with ETAL. Pleased to see you with your questions. Hi, thank you. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question.

speaker
Carlos Lagareta
Analyst, ETAL

Two quick ones. The first one, you can disclose how is the penetration, the home path penetration, evolving in the new territories. That would be helpful. And secondly, I guess, you know, you mentioned you have 5 million fiber-only homes passed. I know all of the new homes are being brought out with fiber. But what about the, let's say, the legacy 8 to 9 million home staff that you have? Would you plan to increase that at some point in time to Fiverr or to operate that fully to Fiverr? Or would that be on a piecemeal basis? I mean, just to get your thoughts on that, that would be helpful.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Sure, Carlos, thank you. I didn't quite get the first part, but let me answer the second part and get back to the first one. As we say, we will have six million compounds on fiber for the expansion project, but we're not taking away anything. Enrique was very clear in the two initiatives we have. We are expanding and we are turning our network into a full fiber as needed, as in a project, very clear to have that full fiber by 2028. but right now we have 62%. Now, that means that if you have 9 million home paths in Fiverr on that part, we already have 4 million home paths in the existing territories that have 5. We're very, very proud of that. We convert 25,000 kilometers of home paths between 21 and 22, and we convert another 7,000 kilometers of Compass Overtages. So we are not a company looking only to growth, we are a company that is taking care of the existing markets and we do that because we believe sooner or later everybody should go to fiber on that part. We truly believe that in the long term with the cost that we have to conversion and the cost that we have for building, it is the right idea. I would like to tell you that If you take everybody, if you look at the amount of capex that we have invested from 2020 to 2023 so far, which is around 2 billion in capex, it's way less than any other company in our territory in that period. And we convert around 50,000 kilometers or 9 million home paths. So if you consider how efficient we are in building, I'm pretty sure you will do the same that we're doing.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Two billion is the lowest in the industry in Mexico, not in our territories.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Well, in Mexico. Thank you, Luis. Thank you. The two billion that we spent in the last four years is the lowest by far.

speaker
Carlos Lagareta
Analyst, ETAL

By far. Sorry, sorry, I think you misunderstood. I think what, okay, I understood the plan for the fiber rollout, but the first part of the question was, what is your home path penetration or unique subscriber by home path penetration in the new territories? I know you've mentioned a level before, but I want to understand how that's moving along. And also, if I may, a follow-up, if you could quantify perhaps the effect on payroll that you would have if the approval of the reduction of the working week in Mexico goes through for 2024, that could also be really helpful. Thank you so much.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Sure, Carlos. That's why I say the first part of the question, I didn't get it. What I can tell you that in the areas of the expansion project that we have, let's say more than 12 months, we already passed 15 percent penetration, which is in line with what we have, okay? Our penetration is lower because we are building, you know, one million home paths every three quarters. So let me tell you about the one that has been there for a longer time. We already have approximately 15 percent, and in some areas above 20 percent, but you can say 15 percent average on that path. Now, regarding the impact that this is going to have, I don't know if the reducing in the working hours per week is going to pass. It's going to impact all the companies, not only us, that's for sure. We believe we're going to have an impact in the labor cost because of the increase in wages, regular wages, regarding from minimum wage to the days of vacation that we have and even the end-of-year bonus. And for what we believe, the reduction is not going to be taking place. If it's going to take place, we'll see the work looking into an increase on a per labor of about 7% to 10% for next year if everything passes by.

speaker
Victor

Yeah, the Christmas bonus also increased.

speaker
Carlos Lagareta
Analyst, ETAL

That would be the full effect, 7% to 10%, you said?

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

You can count to 7% to 10% in labor, closer to 10% because of inflation, the rest of the personnel, the minimum wage, the vacation, the retirement bonus, and the Christmas bonus.

speaker
Carlos Lagareta
Analyst, ETAL

Right. So that's, let's say, the most conservative scenario where everything goes through.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

The most conservative will be around 8%. I will go between 8% to 10%.

speaker
Carlos Lagareta
Analyst, ETAL

Brilliant. Thank you so much.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Thank you, Carlos.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andres Coelho with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

speaker
Andres Coelho
Analyst, Scotiabank

Thank you for taking my question. First one, I just want to confirm that your decision now is to migrate all of the HFC subscribers to Fiverr Tour Home because I understood that in the past you will kind of lead with both technologies. So just confirming that the 41% of your rate that's still on HFC will be migrated in the next couple of quarters.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

that's the first question thank you andre this is a long-term project and let me tell you our view is to have a full fiber company by 2028 that means we will slowly year over year we're in 2023 we're going to convert kilometers and compass in 2024 2025 2026 2027 and 2028 Okay, right now we have 62%. What I can tell you is that great amount of our existing set-top boxes, and I want to have that because some of our competitors say that we don't change the equipment. Wait, we don't change the equipment because our set-top boxes is ready to be GPON ready. In terms of broadband, all of our broadband subscribers migrate to an ONC with the best Wi-Fi integrated, it is integrated, as we are speaking.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Yeah, just to make clear, Andrés, as we convert our infrastructure, our network, from HFC to FTTH, we migrate the subscribers. We don't leave both networks to coexist. As soon as we finish the migration, we dismantle, we take out the HFC network. It might take us some months because, I mean, it's thousands of subscribers we have to migrate from HFC to FTTH. So we have to change the draft. We have to change the modem, which is a ONT. instead of a cable modem. And in some cases, the box, the video box, it's already prepared to be a GPON box. It doesn't really make a difference. The box, the cable box, the video box, except the box, it works indistinctively either for GPON or HFC. We have to make sure it's an advanced box that has all the functionalities for the HBO Plus product, which means that you can download all the apps that we manage with the service, which is Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO, Star Plus, all the apps that are very popular out there in the market. But we do migrate the subscribers as soon as we build the FTTH network. We plan to get rid of all HFC network by 2028. That means even smaller towns that we will keep them with an HFC network until maybe 26, 27, 28 Because that network is perfectly suitable to provide advanced services. We can provide speeds of 500 megabits to the home with that current network we have in HFC. Even we could go up to 1 gig or 750 megs, because we are delivering over 1 gig to the node in those cities. So a network is perfectly suitable for any services that you want to provide right now that exceed the expectations of the customers or the needs of the customers. So we're perfectly OK. But I mean, at the end, we think that fiber technology is cheapest to maintain can be very, very effective and is ready. The way we did build this network is ready for the next 10, 15 years to come. Just changing some equipment in the back office. Nothing in the audience or nothing in the network in the street. Just in the back office. I don't know if that answers your question.

speaker
Andres Coelho
Analyst, Scotiabank

It does. Thank you. And actually, on this same line, in the conference call, in the Q3 conference call, Total Play basically said that not all FTTH is born equal. That's what they said, that not all FTTH is born equal. And they said that even though Telmex has migrated 76% of their base from copper to FTTH, their Fiverr service is not the same quality as that provided by native FTTH networks like yours or like TotalPay. So I'm wondering, Enrique, if you can talk a little bit about the quality experience or your opinion on the quality experience of the Telmex subscribers that have been migrated to Fiverr. Would you agree that that service is not the same as yours?

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Telmex is a great company. Telmex is a much better company than TotalPay, and the best company of all is ours. Our network is much better. The FTTH network we've been building is much better than any other FTTH network that is being built in Mexico.

speaker
Andres Coelho
Analyst, Scotiabank

Right. But specifically regarding the Telmex subscribers, do you think that they are getting the same service as yours? I mean, the question is, Basically, if you believe that you can take Telmex subscribers that have been migrated to Fiverr, or if you think that those 76% of Telmex users are already on Fiverr.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Yes, we can. Yes, we can because we have all our advantages over Telmex. We have the XView, we are very good at managing videos, we are very good at managing, I mean, we even have a very good FB&O. The offer that we have in mobile phones is by far better than telcel. I mean, we provide much more gigabytes for the same price. In the cell service, cell phone service, the speed that Altan or RetroPartida provides is a symmetrical speed. The network is much empty than the TailCell network, so the speeds are better. And the number of gigabytes that the customer gets for the same price is almost double. So we have a very good way of competing against TailMix. and competing against any other provider in the market.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

And Andres, like Carlos was asking in his remarks regarding the existing territories, and you yourself too on that part, I want to go back again. Almost 50% of our subscribers in the organic territories, the 45 and 50, are already fiber subscribers. The other part, are nodes between 500 to 250 that will be converted. I can tell you that just for next year, we will have about 60%, close to 65% of our network, organic network existing, will be fiber. The way we're building fiber is way better than the way our competition has built that. If they say that, well, they are open to say whatever they want. Our KPIs Net Promoter Score, in the systems where we have the fiber, shows us that we have a great service and it's been accepted by the customer. We do not believe we have a lower network by far. Like Enrique says, we have the best network and the best company to approach. More than that, what we have done is with $2 billion in capex in the past, in the last four years. That's what we invested in. And we have half of our existing network already converted and protected and competing. And also in those markets, where you look at the market share that we have, after years, 10 years in some markets, 5 years, from Total Play, from Telmex, conversion to Fiverr, some we haven't been converted, still we are the leader in those markets. So they can say whatever they want. I would like to talk about our business plan, which is a business plan that is being proven and is proven to be successful. It will be, we're at the peak of the capex. And if somebody was worried about a year ago that we could not build double the infrastructure, nobody's asking about double the infrastructure anymore. Now you're asking, okay, now what they need to do is speed up the process of net ads. We agree. We don't have a problem there. We are going and focused into increasing the number of net ads both in the expansion project, but also we haven't decreased, we have increased subscribers in the organic territories. So that's a clear message of how the company looks. And 2024 will look better because we will take advantage of the infrastructure, okay, with better margins and less capex. That's a clear message that I would say it goes for the majority of the questions we have.

speaker
Andres Coelho
Analyst, Scotiabank

Right. And just one final detail. Topal Place says that they're installing Wi-Fi 6 modems, Wi-Fi 6 modems, and that they are the best modems of the Mexican market. Could you just clarify if your modems are also Wi-Fi 6 or what you think about the modems?

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Well, if you ask Dr. Clay, out of the million subscribers they have, how many they have in Wi-Fi 6, it's the same that we have. We're installing Wi-Fi 6 also to new subscribers, according to packages, the same way that they go. If you tell me that they have Wi-Fi 6 in the 4.9 million subscribers that they have, it's not that. We are all, according to new technology, installing what the subscriber pays and what the subscriber wants. We should have Wi-Fi 6. I mean, we should look into Wi-Fi 7 pretty soon. But I can tell you, for example, that our set of boxes, you can add them also. What the quality processor, the way that we handle Android TV, the way that we look into the streaming, we can all talk about what's good or bad from the other one, really. I mean, our numbers are good. Our project is believable. At least we believe that. Management believe that, and the board believe that. It's the best option that we have looking into the future, and we're determined to do that. And our first step was to build infrastructure. We already did that, and with lower capital than what we were presenting when we started. So please, I don't know if they are talking too much about us. That means something. We're doing good.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

I mean, we can spend the whole morning here talking about Total Play or other players, but I can tell you, Andres, is that we are doing things the best way there is. And our network is by far better than any other network. And the Terminal equipment, the subscriber equipment we're using, is suited to what we need to do. And it's custom-made for that.

speaker
Victor

Thank you, Andres. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Bye.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from the line of Luca Brendem with Bank of America.

speaker
Luca Brendem
Analyst, Bank of America

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. So regarding cash generation, we saw there was a positive impact from working capital this quarter. Is that something that should continue in the coming quarters, or we should see some reversal in the fourth quarter? Thank you.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Well, yes, cash generation, it's been a topic we've been discussing a lot, and a lot of the... The flow has gone to the inventories because we needed to have materials to really grow the network, and the inventory has been growing on several sequential quarters except for this one. We have materials for the build-out of the remaining of the year. And we will acquire next year also. But we will maintain basically a decent level on inventories, but will not grow at the speed it was growing anymore. So we can see some balance in this cash flow inbound coming from from the inventory and other sources of flow in terms of accounts receivables and accounts payables as well. So we are negotiating with vendors, and that will also show an improvement on that regard.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

And it's a result of negotiations, positive negotiations, and we will continue to that to improve the working capital.

speaker
Luca Brendem
Analyst, Bank of America

Very clear. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, Luca. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Alejandro Azar with GBM.

speaker
Alejandro Azar
Analyst, GBM

Hi, guys. Good morning. Enrique Raimundo Luis. Two easy ones. The first one is on your retention rate. How is your retention rate on the new clients, on the network expansion once the promotional period expires. And the second one is on Enrique's comments on CapEx being funded with cash flow from operations. What is cash flow from operations from your standpoint? Is that a VDAL as working capital or are you including interest expenses, taxes? Thank you.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Sure, Alejandro, thank you. The insurance rate on the existing territories is higher than in the organic, and that's normal when you are on an expansion. Still, it is very manageable, and it's very healthy, and allow us to continue to grow. That's all I can tell you. We're happy. The increase in the insurance that we have is a seasonality insurance. And it's coming from the rate increases. And we already have a much more better promotion and go to market in order to have not better quality, but more retention of those subscribers and increase the show. The show continues to be decreased as we continue to increase the number of subscribers on expansion. Because some of these sales, people cannot pay or take promotions. But that's normal. Still, my conclusion, and be direct on that, we're happy with that and allow us to grow in both markets, organic and expansion. And regarding the CAPEX and RICO, Luis? Yeah.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

So, yes, we expect the cash flow generation to cover the needs after 2025. We will still need some leverage in 2024. And we, yes, include interest, capex, taxes, all of the above.

speaker
Alejandro Azar
Analyst, GBM

Thank you, Luis. If I may, so after 25 or during 25, you're thinking that you're going to have positive free cash flow, right? Yes, sure.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Yes, sure. We will be positive free cash flow. starting the second part of 2024. Second half.

speaker
Victor

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Full year? Full year 2025.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the call to Enrique Yamuni for web questions.

speaker
Webcast Moderator
Webcast Moderator

No, we have some questions. Yes, the first one comes from Rupesh. Could you talk about ARPU differences in new versus mature markets? How much is ARPU increasing in mature markets?

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Yes, Rupesh. ARPU is increasing in both organic and expansion. In existing markets, we have combinations between increase in subscribers with promotional rates and increase of rates that we have. You can count that, in average, in the existing markets, the increase in ARC is around 2% on that part. And in the expansion markets, it's hard to tell because we continue to increase our new subscribers, but we can tell you that it's a very healthy, positive trend. in the ARPU that we're getting in the expansion. The problem that we have for the ARPU in general of the company consolidated is that we have more subscribers on the expansion projects with less ARPU because of the promotional compared to the other ones. So that's why ARPUs in the company remain pretty much stable in that part. The second question.

speaker
Webcast Moderator
Webcast Moderator

It comes from . Good morning. Could you provide the current average take-up rate of homes built 12 months ago, homes connected times homes .

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

I already answered that. Fifteen percent pretty much, and some all neighborhoods more than that in expansion projects. Okay. Just for those over 12 months, just to be clear.

speaker
Webcast Moderator
Webcast Moderator

The next one comes from Andres Ortiz. What drove the increase in DNA for this quarter? In the past, you mentioned that we saw during the first quarter was a result of one-offs, and we are back at those levels. What level of maximum leverage do you expect?

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Well, again, DNA is a result of the higher investment that we have done on the past quarter. Yes, we're back to Q1 levels, but we expect that to – this is a result of continuous investment. And regarding the levels of debt, we expect to reach 1.5 to 1.7 for next year, and that will be the highest. Maximum. Yeah, that will be the highest.

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

That will be the highest point.

speaker
Webcast Moderator
Webcast Moderator

Okay, another one from Rupesh. What are the current costs of customer acquisition, including capex and marketing, for these new subscribers? And what sort of ROI does that equal?

speaker
Armando Fernandez
Deputy CEO

Rupesh, maybe we can have a one-on-one call for that one.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Yeah, we have not really disclosed that information. So we can have a call specifically for that.

speaker
Webcast Moderator
Webcast Moderator

Okay, that's the final question. I'll turn the call over to Mr. Yamouni for final remarks.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Thank you very much. I've been receiving some comments from investors and other people about the stock price. There is nothing really much we can do other than perform good with the company. We went public in 2007. I was just looking at our prospect of 2007. The company has, by far, outperformed what we said in our prospect, or our IPO. In 2007, from 2007 to what we expect to 2023, our revenues have grown in U.S. dollar terms, over 400%. Our EBITDA over 300%. We talk about pesos, our revenue has grown over 700%. Our EBITDA over close to 600%. We have from 2007 to current, more than double our video subscribers, multiplied by 10 our broadband subscribers, multiplied by 30, more than 30 times our telephone subscribers, and the stock is the same price in 2007 than today, practically, which is absurd. I don't know what the market is looking at. We think that this company is greatly undervalued. We are happy with the performance we are having. It's under our plan.

speaker
Victor

We are getting there with our goals. And we will keep performing.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

That's what my message would be to the market.

speaker
Victor

And we think that we are, as always, happy with our performance.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

We have some things to tweak to get better, but we're always on what we need to do. And as always, it is a pleasure to discuss our results with you. Please contact our investor relations department if you have any questions or concerns regarding the company. And have a wonderful day and weekend.

speaker
Luis Zeller
CFO

Thank you very much, everybody.

speaker
Enrique Yamuni
CEO

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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