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Mowi Asa
8/26/2020
Yes, I think the time is there, so welcome everyone. Good morning to all of you out there, and welcome to the presentation of Moe's second quarter results. My name is Ivan Windheim, and with me today, we have our CFO, Kristian Ellingsen. As usual, we start with the highlights, quite an extensive list. this time, I must say, in an eventful quarter. Operation EBIT of 99 million euro in line with the trading update released the 15th of July. Operations have been running close to normal despite the COVID-19 pandemic. We are maintaining strict measures and do whatever we can to secure the health and safety of our employees. Prices have been largely impacted by COVID-19. We have seen a steep downward trajectory in the wake of it. In terms of farming volumes, 104,000 tonnes, 2,000 tonnes above guidance. We are taking down our full year guidance by 8,000 tonnes, all of it in Scotland. due to biological issues this year in that region. Then in cost, farming down from 4.62 euro per kilo to 4.47. We have low-cost performers in Norway, and we also have high-cost performers in Norway, and we have a broad portfolio consisting of six farming regions. So this is the average moving Norway Moby Faroes and Moby Chile, they are below, and Scotland, Ireland, and Canada, they are above. All-time high earnings in Moby Ireland for our organic salmon, very impressive. We also saw record results and record volumes for our second quarter in consumer products. On the back of the shift we have seen in demand, from the food service segment to the retail segment. Under the prevailing circumstances, the board has not found it appropriate to distribute a dividend for the first and second quarter. So much about the highlights. Then over to key financials. Christian will walk us through this in detail later this morning. So I will just touch base upon turnover, €910 million down, despite an increase for volumes of 6%. And the explanation is, as we have already mentioned, price reductions year over year in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has also resulted in a decline in operation profit, which was, as already said, 99 million euro against 211 million euro last year. The margins we will come back to later on in the presentation when we address the various regions. We already talked a little bit about prices. As you can see from the curves here, a steep decline in prices this year. We started at record high levels, and at least I thought this would be another Great year for Mowi and the salmon industry, but this pandemic has absolutely ruined the party. We also think the fall will be challenging, but we are more optimistic to next year and for the long run. We'll come back to that later on. In terms of price achievement, good in the quarter, I would say. A little bit below reference price in Norway due to downgrades, knock-on effect from the winter and winter source, but we had a small contribution from our contracts, so it's all in all okay. Scotland, 112%, very good. Canada, 95%, slightly below the reference price, also due to the winter and knock-on effect from it and winter sores. In Chile, price achievement was impressive, 122%. Operation EBIT, we saw a profit increase in all our entities apart from farming, a huge decline in farming, mainly driven by the price decline, which we have already been through, costs are also somewhat up year over year. Then over to our most important farming region, Norway, operation EBIT of 60 million euro in this quarter, so 60% of the profit in Norway, that's normal, 56, 57,000 tons, so higher volumes, Compared to last year, also higher than the first quarter, which is good. Volumes are important in this industry. Operation EBIT margin, 106 euro per kilogram. Reasonably good, I would say. Bear in mind that Moe is a euro company, and we are using euro as a functional currency in Moe, Norway. So consequently, we have not benefited from the weakening of the NOC we saw in the second quarter, which was unprecedented. Over time, in steady state, carrying Norway in Euro or Norway, it doesn't matter. It's neutral. But when the NOC is weakening, we lose compared to our peers. When the NOC is strengthening, we win. But we all know that we haven't seen a strengthening of the NOC since 2012. So over the last years, we have had some tailwind from the currency in Norway. Having said that, being a euro company gives us a much cheaper financing, and euro is by far the the most important currency in our cash flow. So we still think our strategy is the right one. But in the second quarter, FX was playing a role. Normally, it's not. And we do not like to talk about FX in MoE. We like to talk about fish and markets and the rest. But we had to make an exception this time around. So we apologize for that. Yeah, contracts we have already been through. Operation EBIT per kilo per region, okay in mid and north, also an okay cost level. We have started to face in a new generation, which is better. Our July numbers improved, so we are crossing our fingers for the rest of this very, very important season in which we are. South, a poor quarter on low volumes. We harvested out two CIC sites, that is R&D, which always carry high cost. In addition, we also took out some big fish. So the second quarter is not representative for region south, and we expect improvements in the third quarter. And July was much better. Then over to the contract portfolio. I guess a lot of you are interested in this one. This is for Norway. Unstable, no changes since last time, but we are going into the contract season. So the next few months to come will be important to us with regard to prices and price achievement next year. Scotland, 14 million euro, margin of close to one euro, reasonably good, I would say, in a challenging environment. Production cost was very high in the first quarter. They are substantially down in the second quarter. because we have harvested from performing sites, better performing sites. Having said that, the biology in Scotland has been challenging this year. It was also challenging last autumn. And as of today, we see a higher cost, unfortunately, in the third quarter as we saw in the second quarter. So a heads up on the cost in Scotland. Then Canada. negative numbers driven by very weak prices in America. Canada is and will most likely be a high-cost region. Then you know how it is when prices decline. You get the hit or the biggest hit where you carry the highest cost. We saw cost was coming down in in the second quarter, which is encouraging. We also hope for better improvement going forward. But in general, cost level in Canada is high, and with the current spot prices we see, then it's a challenging environment. The fish from Canada goes first and foremost into the U.S. market as a whole fish. somewhat fillets, and that are not the products that the market asks for these days, the COVID-19 situation. Chile, a good quarter, I would say, 12 million euro, with the prices we saw, is impressive, so relatively speaking, I think Chile was our best region This quarter, although it was not in absolute terms, margin 0.82 euro, so quite close to Norway. It's, again, really impressive. And thanks to the downstream setup we have in the U.S., we are in a position where we can produce and sell the right products, and that we have benefited a lot from. At the same time, we have both satisfactory cost and biology in Chile. So the situation in Chile, relatively speaking, is good, but taking into account the current price environment, it's, of course, very challenging. But we see that with our business model, we stand out this quarter. And we also think it will be so going forward as long as we have this pandemic ongoing. We'd also like to take the opportunity to say that we are carrying limited frozen inventory. If we take out the inventory which is sold, we are close to zero. So you are on a toes, you could say, We have started this challenging second half season. Ireland and Faroes, fantastic results this quarter. If you start with Ireland, 15 million euro, 15% of Moe's profit in the quarter on 4,000 tonnes. That is all-time high in absolute terms, not margins-wise, but in absolute terms. 4,000 tonnes for this entity is a high number, but very impressive. We are also satisfied with the numbers for our Paris salmon. Good cost with good price achievement for them, high volumes, gives a good result. So altogether, we made 21 million euro in what we, at least back in the days, called orders. That's more than 20% of profit. So it shows that being diversified, having a broad portfolio is beneficial. And yeah. So we are happy with that. Consume products have done a great job in the quarter. They have kept our volumes going. Without consume products, I don't think we would have managed that with our size. So yeah, we are very grateful for this opportunity power value chain, particularly this time. As already said, all-time high profit on all-time high volumes for our second quarter. Value-added margin, 4.1%. And as we say here in the bottom, the COVID-19 pandemic underlines once again the strategic value of this downstream economy. operation footprint we have. So again, we have much to thank consumer products for this quarter. They will also be very important the coming autumn. Then over to feed. Second quarter is better than the first quarter, but it's still low season. So having said that, I think the second quarter was a reasonably good quarter. Operation EBIT of 6 million euro, a margin of 4.1% is OK, higher than last year. Very good production in Norway. We are ramping up in Scotland, and the self-sufficiency ratio in Europe was 95%. Then over to cost again, I would say. We have seen an increasing cost in the industry and in MOVI over the years. And I guess you also could say that the pace has increased too. We started a cost saving program in 2018 and have saved a cost of 180 million euro to date, which is good. through more than 700 separate initiatives. So here we are working with our cost base. In addition, we try to improve biology, increase survival ratio, et cetera. So this is the cost base. And hard work, really. So we are quite satisfied with the cost-saving program, but we still see that cost is increasing. We have cost pressure from... a tougher biology, but also from stricter regulation and all of the other input factors. And we cannot sit still and not address it. So we have to do more. Labour cost is number two cost in Mowi, accounting for 60% of total cost. And so far, we haven't worked very hard on headcount in Mowi. We have had a growth strategy. We have grown significantly over the years but now we think it's time to also see can we do this more efficiently so the board has decided to introduce our productivity program in our cost saving program where we are targeting a 10 reduction in headcount for movie as is by 2024. The strategy is still to grow the company, so the aim is to be a net job creator also in the future, but maybe different jobs. This we will do through automation, digitalization, i.e. using existing and new technology, but also through improving our production processes and right-sizing of the organizations. In terms of all the details, I think we must ask for some time. We will revert to it when it's relevant, when the timing is there. But now we have been given the task. Now we will start to work on it. We have some ideas. We have some preliminary thinking. But the announcements, they will come later. Christian, can you please walk us through financial figures and fundamentals? The floor is yours.
Thank you very much, Ivan. Good morning, everybody. I hope you are well and safe and enjoy our update on MAUI and on our Q2 results. I will start with the overview of profit and loss, where the top line shows operational revenue of 911 million euro, down from Q2 2019 on lower prices. The reduction in operational EBIT, as we see here, down 53%, is almost in its entirety explained by reduced farming prices. And the operational EBIT of 99 million euro translates into a return on capital employed, as you see here in the last figure, 12.2%, which is above our target of 12%. But of course, ROCE and the other key metrics, such as underlying earnings per share, operational EBIT margin, they are all impacted by the more than 50% reduction in earnings. If you look at the items between operational EBIT and financial EBIT, as usual, the largest individual item is the net fair value adjustment of biomass. This is negative this time on lower salmon prices. If you look at associated companies, this is mainly related to our associated company, NovaSea. which had very good results and operations in the second quarter. So we congratulate NovaSea on good results and we see an EBIT per kilo as much as 1.7 euro from NovaSea. And net financial items, negative 14 million euro this time. Interest costs are reduced from Q2 2019 That is as expected, but on the other hand, we are affected by negative currency effects over P&L. So that gives us a slightly more negative number this time around. Then we can move on to the overview of the financial position, which shows stable total assets from Q2 2019, 5.6 billion euro. When it comes to equity and liabilities, equity ratio is a healthy 51.2%, as we see here. And net interest-bearing debt is slightly below the long-term target of 1.4 billion euros. The cash flow statements shows that net interest bearing debt moved from 1.357 to 1.380 billion euro, so relatively stable. We saw a large tie-up of working capital in the quarter, 74 million euro. That is related to sales and marketing with 24 million euro on a tie-up of accounts receivable. as sales increased versus the first quarter of this year. Feed tied up 26 million euro, mainly due to buildup of inventory before the peak season. And farming had a special effect of 21 million euro in VAT payments in Norway, delayed from Q1 to Q2 as part of the COVID-19 aid package from the authorities. We also see that taxes paid is a bit low at this time, Taxes remaining to be paid this year will mainly be paid in Q3, but also some in Q4. And in Norway, tax payments scheduled originally in Q2 were postponed to Q3 as part of the COVID-19 aid package. Net interest and financial items paid as guided, 10 million euros. And as it's written here in the margin, we purchased 2.25 licenses in the Norwegian capacity auction in August for approximately 29 million euros to be paid now in the third quarter. Yeah, and then we have the cash flow guidance for the year. We maintain mainly our cash flow guidance for 2020 except for Taxes paid guided slightly down. The CapEx projects are progressing more or less as planned. And as Ivan commented, when it comes to dividends, this is an important part of Moe's financial strategy. But under the prevailing circumstances, the board has decided that it's not appropriate to distribute a quarter dividend for the first and second quarter. Yeah, and we have a solid financing. No changes here since the last quarter. We have no long-term debt maturing until Q2 2022. We have cash and undrawn lines of about 550 million euro. And we have a very good relationship with the lenders in our bank syndicate, D&B, Nordea, ABN Amro, Rabobank, Danske Bank and SEB. Then we move on to the supply and demand section. As we see here, global supply increased by 3% from Q2 2019. That is driven by 10% growth in Chile, as we see here. That is on good production and high average weights in Chile. But if we look ahead, supply growth in Chile is expected to be low in the second half of 2020 and negative in 2021. Small stockings are significantly down in Chile, down 12% year-to-date July. And prices, as we see here, we all know that we started at very good levels in 2020, but the prices fell as a result of COVID-19. first in Asia and then in the rest of the markets. In the second quarter, we saw a drop of 19% in Norway and more than 20% in America, where the food service share is larger and COVID-19 more challenging. The global supply outlook indicates a tighter supply and demand balance. if we look past the short term. And then we have the volume by market. And of course, COVID-19 significantly impacted trade flows and channel logistics in the second quarter. The food service segment represents around 40 to 45% of global consumption. And this segment, as we all know, was heavily impacted by COVID-19. In many countries, lockdown measures eased somewhat and demand improved somewhat. Retail sales have been strong. So we have seen that that has offset some of the demand shortfall. But the net effect is a demand reduction of about 10% resulting in lower prices in the second quarter. In Europe, we have seen strong retail sales growth in the key markets, such as Germany, France, and the UK. That has been positive, of course, and has offset some of the food service demand reduction. In the U.S., we see the consumption increased by 3% despite the close down of food service, increased retail sales, and particularly pre-packed products, very positive. Brazil, on the other hand, declined by 24% as the food service segment is very large in that market and the COVID-19 situation very challenging. In Asia, we see that consumption increased by 11% from 2 to 19. Air freight rates have improved since the peak on better capacity. In food service, demand had almost recovered before the second wave of COVID-19 started. It's important to stress that we believe, of course, that there is still a very good underlying demand for salmon. That has not changed the underlying fundamental demand for this product. And the increased home consumption we have seen now in this period, when more people are cooking at home, prepared healthy salmon products at home, represents a potential. When it comes to the supply outlook, the outlook is a modest growth. You see the range here, 2% to 5% in 2020, and a low growth of 1% in 2021, driven by lower growth in Chile. And this gives a tight market outlook given continued COVID-19 recovery. You see the range here from Q3, 2% to 7%, and Q4, 1% to 5%. And when it comes to our own volume guiding, as Ivan commented upon, we have guided down the Scottish volumes by 8,000 tons due to biological issues and increased mortality. The reminder of the 2020 volume guidance isn't changed, so that gives a net figure of 442,000 tons. Then, Ivan, then I would like to hand the word over to you to discuss the outlook.
So thank you, Christian. Yes, outlook. So this goes without saying. In the short term, COVID-19 has impacted the market dynamics and prices negatively. And then we are talking about the food service segment that accounts for 40 to 45% of the market. But in the longer term, our view is unchanged. We really belong in this. We believe in this. We see a strong underlying demand. So this is, in our mind, COVID-19 driven demand. We get often a question, when will we see a recovery? Well, if I am to answer, I would say it's purely dependent on the COVID-19 situation. We believe that when we have a vaccine in place, then the sentiment will change and things will normalize quite soon with regard to the summons. So we are optimistic in the long term. We also believe in 2021. We do. The supply side is constrained. And with the market recovery, that should give rise for a tight market balance and improvements compared to this year. How good and how much depends on how long time this will take. We don't know, of course. Meanwhile, we will continue to capitalize on the current shift we see in demand from food service to retail. We are integrated and we have the right business model for this. So I think relatively speaking, we will do quite well. And we also do believe that food service, sorry, consumer products will continue to make good results. We are, as said previously in the presentation, expecting a volatile autumn. We know that volumes are increasing. We know that the COVID-19 situation is ongoing. So power market is out. So for the autumn, I think it's about work ourselves through it. But again, we have the right business model to come through this in a reasonably good way. Then cost. Cost is important. Cost fighting is a never-ending story. The development we have seen in this industry and in Norway is concerning. So we have to address it. We have to take further measures. We believe in this new productivity program. There are always potentials. We've also been through a long period with significant growth that also It does something with the organization. Sometimes you have to take a brief and look around and see if this is the smartest way to do this. So we think we will deliver on the target set by the board, i.e. reducing headcount by 10% as is by 2024. At the same time, our growth strategy is still valid. It's still our main strategy. So the aim is also to be a net job creator in the future. So this last part is an important part of the message. So nothing has changed. In 2016, we started a wellboat venture. And we have now built 10 vessels, which are in operations. Two are under construction. and two new ones will be contracted in near term. So we have developed a full-fledged valuable company. We think the timing is right to initiate a divestment process for our stake in this company. This has never been defined as a core asset for Mowi. It was an opportunistic move. back in 16, and the strategy has been clear all the way that when the timing is right, we will divest it. So now we will start the work doing that. The outcome we will revert to when the timing is right. So much about Outlook. Then I think the time has come for a Q&A. Kim, our IRO, will administrate it. Christian, our CFO, will join. So Dan, I think the floor is yours, Kim.
Okay, thanks. The first question is from Alexander Jones from Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. The first question is on costs. Can you give any color on where you see farming costs in the third quarter from 447 report to this quarter? And given the new productivity program launched today, it would be helpful if you can give any view on where you see costs going over the medium term net of this program relative to the cost levels reported in the past year.
As indicated before, we believe that costs will improve in the second half. We will see higher volumes and we also harvest from a generation which currently has better performance. You see that the third quarter has started good, but we now enter a season which is more challenging biological-wise, and it's still too early to give the final answer, and we will not sort of give any detailed numbers, but we still believe in improved costs. That is still the case. And Ivan commented that in Norway, regions south, had high costs in the second quarter, and that it's expected to improve in the third quarter. Yeah, and when it comes to the productivity program and cost savings, as Ivan commented, we have had a cost saving program since 2018, where we have realized significant cost savings. even though costs have increased on first and foremost more challenging biology, but also regulations and generally cost increases for the input factors. So we now include productivity, we now include labor costs in the program, that is a major cost component, and that is of course important to address also labor costs, but still the main driver for costs will remain to be biology. So we don't expect to see any major shifts in costs until we have more fundamentally better solution when it comes to live treatments and related issues.
Okay. His second question is on the license auction. Can you please give more color on your approach to the recent Norwegian license auction and whether the relatively low share of licenses won by Maui, at least compared to your existing market share, reflects a more cautious view on the value of those licenses than peers, a desire to preserve balance sheet capacity given COVID, or some other factors?
I can take it, yeah. In general, we never comment on our M&E strategy, and we will not make an exception this time either. What we did was what fitted with our plans this time around, so we do not have much more to say than that.
Okay, and then a question from Sebastian Bray. He represents Berenberg. He has... Also a question on cost. Could Maui provide any quantitative guidance on the blended farming cost improvement relative to Q2 levels of 447 expected from the new generation of salmon and cost savings over the next two years?
We usually aren't that detailed that we are given specific numbers specifically. for the cost development. There are many factors impacting this. So I think I will leave it at that. I don't know if you have any further comments, Ivan.
No, I liked your answer, so stick to it.
And then his second question is on the cost savings program. Will one-off charges related to the 10% headcount reduction be excluded from operational EBIT going forward? and are the cost savings front-end or back-end loaded?
Maybe I can take this one. Very valid questions, but a little bit early. So this we must revert to and meanwhile ask for forgiveness.
Karl-Emil Johannesson at Pareto, he's asking, do you expect consumer products to continue to deliver the same strong margins and high volumes in the second half of this year?
Yeah, it's always hard to predict about the future. But we think as long as we have this situation with COVID-19 ongoing, consumer products will continue to leverage on the shift that we have seen in demand from food service to retail. And it takes time to copy our business model and set up. So for the third and fourth quarter, yeah, at least I personally believe in a continuation.
And then his second question is on cost. Should we expect cost in Norway to come down longer term, measured in euro, if the NOC euro exchange rate remains unchanged?
I don't know.
Shall I or you? Yeah, I guess all else being equal. But I guess currency is also hard to predict.
Yeah, absolutely. Of course, if the NOC is strengthened, that will help us in the short term. But in the long term, this is neutral in steady state. So it depends on the horizon, really. Because let's say at some point it was at 13. Let's say 13 was the new number. Then it would have been neutral after generation, so after cycle from egg to plate. So the dynamic here is short. That's when we see the difference. So this is a little bit tricky to answer that question. So as Christian says, what is the new fx? So let's say the new fx is 10 or 10.5. After cycle, this is, again, neutral. So it sounds maybe a little bit peculiar, but just to pick up the pen and put down the numbers. So it's the same, really. So it's just a change that matters. And that change is normally rather small. So we do not talk about FX. But as we all see, in the second quarter, there was a quarter that stood out FX-wise. It was unprecedented. We have never seen this, at least in my time, I guess, If you go even further back, we have seen it in combination with wars, etc. But in a normal economy, we don't see that. We're not even close in the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.
Okay, then moving on to Martin Carlin from ABG. He has some questions. The first one is on the shift in demand. Is it possible to quantify the approximate activity level of the Horeca segment for salmon compared to normal activity? Any signs of improvement?
I don't know how specific we shall be, but we're talking about a significant reduction in the food service or Horeca segment. I don't know if you should give any percentages, Ivan.
This is not easy, of course, but we have calculated our net effect number internally, which we believe in, so I guess we can share it with the rest of the world. So do not be shy, Christian.
We, of course, believe that the food service segment will be down significantly, but retail, as we know, is also up, compensating partly for this, so we believe the net effect is around 10% demand reduction all in all.
All right. And do you expect the activity level in consumer products to remain stable or increase going into the second half?
Yeah, well, you know, there are more volumes in the second half. You also have a Christmas, although maybe Christmas a little bit different this year. So this is so. So if I had a crystal ball, which I have not, I would say yes. Something else would surprise me, really. So, yeah. So, yes.
Okay, very good. And then moving over to farming in Scotland. Is the biology in Scotland still challenging? Also on the younger generation of fish. Do you expect this to improve in the short to medium term?
Well, we actually thought in an improvement by now. But we haven't seen it. So in the third quarter... hasn't started at the best. So we gave a heads up on the third quarter, and I still think we should take that under advisement, so to speak. In the long run, of course, all of us that have followed farming and salmon farming for a long time, we know that this goes in waves. So Scotland will come back, absolutely. But the third quarter will not provide any improvements, I'm afraid. At least that's the stance we have today.
And then Christian Norby in Kepler. He has a question also in relation to farming in Scotland. And he is asking if you can elaborate on the biological issues in Scotland. What were the issues in the second quarter? And can you do something to mitigate these effects or these problems going forward?
Another good question. So when people are before their laptop, they seem to have too good time to come up with questions. Yeah, so Scotland and the second quarter and also the first quarter. CMS is an increasing issue, also in Norway, but to much more extent in Scotland. 30% of mortality is actually related to CMS. And this is a result from the mechanical treatment we started on in 15, 16. So this has made CMS, Gertesbrek in Norwegian, a big issue. or to be a big issue. On a positive note, the heritability factor for CMS is quite high, 45%. So this is something we can solve through breeding, through selection, but that will take time. CMS is caused by a virus, and there is no vaccine available. So unfortunately, there is no quick fix. It's about not stressing the fish, not handling it, try to avoid lice, so then again you have to keep the lice away, so good husbandry, good farming, but when you have it, there is unfortunately no quick fix. But over time, this can be solved through breeding. That is our view, i.e. using the traits of the salmon. So, obviously CMS is a part of the selection program in Moab breeding. We also have had algaes in Scotland. That is mother nature. We have that once in a while. So that's something that comes and go, hard to control. Lice in general, but we also have struggled with pastorella, not in the second half, but we had... We had big issues last autumn, which has impacted cost in the first half since we are harvesting out some of that fish now. Pasturella sclensis, which is a bacterial disease. So there we have a vaccine, and we have started to vaccine all the fish. So hopefully, Pasturella is something that we can lay behind us, but we don't know. So this is the first... first version of this vaccine. In general, the seawater is warmer in Scotland. The fjords are more shallow. So it's more challenging to be a salmon farmer in Scotland than in Norway. So in terms of cost, Scotland has and will most likely be a higher cost performer than Norway. But the profit over time has been really good. Return on capital employed far above our requirements. So it belongs in the portfolio. But I don't think I will stand here and say that someday that Scotland now is the best cost performer in the summer world. Simply because the geography and the nature is different. In the past, we have had very good figures in Scotland. So we and Scotland will strike back. But the last quarters, we have struggled a little bit.
Okay. And then moving on to a different topic, branding. Can you give an update on the overall brand development in the quarter?
has the higher retail demand helped your maui brand launch in the in france for example well so unfortunately kobe 19 hampers the the launch of the brand so we had the big plans with both france and and the us this year and then retail is is key and the the the environment hasn't been ready for it. To a large extent, we have put off some of the launches. We have done some in e-commerce, but we need a disease-free world, I think, before we are ready to speed up branding again.
Very good. And then moving on to another analyst, Lars Conrad Johansen from Carnegie. He has two questions. The first one is on cost and the cost cutting program. And he is asking, you're addressing headline count in the new cost cutting program, but what do you do to improve the underlying farming cost? And what cost level should we expect out of Norway over the medium term?
I guess the cost level we have already commented upon when it comes to the concrete actions on farming on the biological side. Maybe you want to say something about that, Ivan?
Yes. So we are taking a lot of measures. This is a long list. And we also are trying out new things. But we do not like to elaborate so much about it in detail. in a forum like this. We have competitors out there. So some of this we must protect. But there are a lot of measures ongoing. So we are fighting cost on all levels. And just to put all doubt aside, the main driver of cost in this industry is biology. So it's not the people. It's not inflation or regulation or the rest. It's biology, biology, biology. So that is a number key in Norway. But back to all the measures we take, we do not want to reveal it.
His second question is on the supply-demand outlook for the second half. You say that you expect a volatile autumn driven by seasonality and COVID-19 market disruptions. How do you see the supply-demand dynamics over the coming two quarters And how do you think that this will affect the contract renegotiations with the larger clients towards year-end?
When it comes to the autumn and the time ahead, as we have already explained, of course, we are in a very challenging situation in food service, and that will continue to impact us. And, yeah, that will improve when we have a more clarified COVID-19 situation with regards to a vaccine, a recovery. But it's difficult for us to give any precise answers on that development. But our belief is, of course, that this is short-term and that we'll see a recovery after the short term. When it comes to contracts, we are... into the processes now, and I don't think we want to go into too much details when it comes to that.
No, I think we have to negotiate the contracts with our clients first, but we are going into very important months with regards to contracts, so you all can read Fishbowl, and the expectations, so I think the backdrop is rather clear for all of us, and then we'll see how we can work around it. It's also about the number of contracts slash volumes we enter into. But this is, again, not something we want to elaborate on. This is a business secret. I have to apologize and ask for forgiveness, but we have to keep some to ourselves.
Okay, and then Alexander from D&B, he is asking, are you looking at other non-core operations to divest in addition to DAS aquaculture?
Yeah, good question. But as we already have said, in general, we do not comment on M&A and such stuff. These are things we must come back to if we come back to it. So this is the strategy, and the strategy discussions, they belong in the boardroom and not on this podium. So again, I apologize.
And then finally, Nils Thomassen. He has one question in relation to Maui's smalt stocking program for this year in Chile. And he's asking if the expected stocking has been changed due to COVID-19.
Should I answer it? No, it has not. So in line with plans and in line with previous years. So no surprises from Chile in that regards for our part.
So that concludes the questions we have received. So do you have any closing remarks?
Well, yeah. I would just like to say thank you for having us and stay safe. Let's hope this is over and that we can meet sooner rather than later.