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Mowi Asa
4/25/2024
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Good morning, everyone, both in the room and online. And welcome to the presentation of Moe's first quarter results of 2024. And with me today to present the financial figures, I have, as usual, our CFO, Kristian Ellingsen. And after the presentation, our IRO, Kim Dersvik, will routinely host a Q&A session. For those who are following the presentation online, can submit your questions or comments in advance or as we go along by email. Please refer to our website at moe.com for the necessary details. Disclaimer, I think we leave for a self-study, so then we are ready for the highlights of the quarter again. And as the first bullet point reads, Moe posted 1.33 billion euro in operating revenues in the first quarter, which translated into an operational profit of 201 million euro, which for the sake is in line with the trading update, the 18th of April. And if you are to sum up the quarter in just a few words, I think it's fair to say it was a rather challenging quarter, biologically, for the largest farming region, Norway, due to seasonal winter sores and downgrades this time around, significantly compounded by issues like apolemia or string jellyfish, in addition to an unusual cold winter with many storms. So much tougher environmental conditions than what we are used to in this region. And this impacted both our price performance and cost performance significantly in the quarter, in the form of a higher share of so-called production fish, in addition to lower average harvest weights. As far as our six other farming countries are concerned, biology was good in the quarter, I would say. In terms of the markets, we continue to see strong demand and strong prices for our salmon of European origin, at least salmon of the right size and quality, whilst regrettably we still see soft prices for salmon of American origin after a promising start to the new year. So the two-way division of the market we have seen since the second quarter last year, and And the termination of the last COVID-related benefit schemes in the U.S. seems to continue. So it looks like the cost of living crisis makes a greater impact on the U.S. markets than on other markets. Probably due to a confluence of factors, including the salmon's overindexation to the food service segment in the American market. But we have been through periods of price divergence between the American and European salmon before, and we strongly believe history will repeat itself also this time around, with price convergence when the dust settles and the re-establishment of once again one global salmon price adjusted for logistics and commodity. So now our view is not a question of if, it's a question of when. Otherwise realized blended farming costs for seven farming countries, was as expected relatively high in the first quarter due to seasonally low harvest volumes and thereby low dilutional costs in addition to already addressed issues with winter source in Norway. On a positive note, however, biology has improved for Movinove in the second quarter. And what is more, the feed price, which is the most important input factor by far in salmon farming, is also somewhat down in the new year. And it may fall even lower with a normalized angiovia fishery in Peru this year, after an Innu disrupted fishery last year. So as of today, we expect a lower cost level for Moe farming when we enter the second half of the year. And hopefully, this is some sort of a cost peak after a few years with an unprecedented cost in inflation. The second quarter on the overhand will, as the first quarter, be seasonally impacted by low harvest volumes and low dilutional costs, in addition to knock-on effects of winter source for Moe in Norway. From one thing to another, the FX hit versus our Norwegian first quarter in the wake of the weakening of the NOC we saw last year and the fact that we are a euro company, 10 million euro in the first quarter. So it's still a considerable amount, although it's gradually diminishing this year, at least as long as the NOC does not weaken further against the euro. In terms of harvest volumes, we harvested 96,500 tons in the first quarter. somewhat lower than our guidance due to primarily a negative harvest volume deviation in Mowi Norway as a result of factors already addressed. Despite this, we still expect that our farming volume guidance of record high 500,000 tonnes is within reach, which is also supported by a seasonal record high standing biomass in sea at the end of the quarter. When it comes to two over, both consumer and feed delivered a reasonably good quarter and a lower market in the US. So on balance, I think we landed on our feet after all in a quarter, which I think is fair to say. We'll go down in history as one of our more challenging quarters. So a big thank you to my 11,500 colleagues for that. It's, of course, much appreciated. And finally, the board of directors has decided to distribute a quarterly dividend of 1.50 NOK per share after the first quarter. I think that does it for the highlights of the quarter. So I'm ready to have a look at the key financial numbers. Kristian will go in depth on these numbers later this morning, so it's not to be too repetitive. I think we'll just touch briefly upon the most important ones now. And first, turnover, which we already have been through. We posted 1.33 billion euro in operating revenues in the first quarter, which translated into an operating profit of 201 million euro. Net interest bearing debt came at 1.82 billion euro, which is somewhat above our long-term debt of 1.7 billion euro. But equity ratio was of healthy 48%. So we still have a sound composition of equity and debt in Moe. General price performance in the quarter, which I would characterize as a mixed bag, because outside Norway it was good as it oscillated around the reference price, which is the standard we like to hold ourselves to internally, and in the quarter The reference price was very high, while in Norway it was a very different story due to already addressed issues with winter sores and apodemia, in addition to contracts and contract prices below the prevailing spot price in the keyword. I also think it's fair to say it was covered excessively by lack of upgrading capacity in Norway to wrap our downgrades. Bear in mind that our secondary processing capacity is located outside Norway, so within Norway our upgrading options are confined to infinity, contrary to at least some of our peers. And export of so-called production fees is, as you know, not allowed. This brings us to the different business entities, and after this, it would be more natural for us to start with MoviNorway, also by far our largest and most important entity. If you take the numbers first, the price of profit was 138 million euro for MoviNorway in the first quarter. Margin was 2.52 euro per kilo, and harvest volumes 55,000 tons, all of which were negatively impacted by I've already addressed issues with aponemia, and unfortunately in a different value, so we'll be struggling to get everything in place. So again, I apologize. Back to Moe in Norway, because of issues with apollinia and spring jellyfish, and much more issues than we are used to due to a series of unfortunate circumstances we have already been through, which obviously impacted both our price and cost performance in the quarter. But on a positive note, and as we said in the highlights, biology has improved for Moe in Norway in the second quarter, which obviously helped on both price and cost performance. But as in football, it's always about the next match, always. And as for next winter, we are now vaccinating all our fish in Norway with a new and presumably more effective immortality vaccine, which is a very important preemptive measure in this. And speaking of measures, we are also taking further preventive measures at sea and we are looking into upgrading capacity on land. And what is more, there is also reason to believe that this winter's co-issues with apollimia, or sting jellyfish, are of temporary nature, as it has been 20 years since the last time we saw these levels of this species in Norwegian waters. So hopefully this winter was an example of a perfect storm, and a low point in terms of winter source for moe in Norway. Then shortly about the margins for the different regions for Moe Norway in the quarter. As you can see from the chart here, we saw particularly strong margin for Region West this time around. They had almost a Euro better margin than the other regions on good biology, as well as being less impacted by winter storms and downgrades. Other than that, I don't think there is much more to say about the regional margins in Moe Norway in the quarter. So then we are ready for the last slide on Movi Norway, our sales contract portfolio. Contract share was 32% for Movi Norway in the first quarter, and was with that approximately in line with our guidance, adjusted for a negative harvest volume deviation in the first quarter. And as I said earlier, these contracts contributed negatively to our earnings in the first quarter. As for the second quarter, we expect the contract share to be about 30%. That's relatively stable prices, a quarter of a quarter contract prices. So now it's time to address the other farming countries, and the first one out is Mowi, Scotland. As we guided in connection with the fourth quarter lease, biology improved significantly for our Scottish operation in the first quarter on lower seawater temperatures and decimating of pathogens following a challenging second half last year with severe gill issues. And this resulted in an operation profit of 32 million euro for Moby Scotland in the first quarter on 14,000 tonnes harvest volumes. Which is also up from 27 million euro in the comparable quarter last year on then 11,000 tonnes harvest volumes. EBIT margin on the overhand was relatively stable year-over-year at 2.19 euro per kilo in this quarter versus 2.34 euro per kilo in the first quarter last year. And the second quarter also looks promising for Mowi Scotland on high volumes and continued strong prices for our Scottish salmon. Then overseas to Chile. More in Chile delivered another set of strong biological metrics in the first quarter, with low mortality and good growth to mention a few. We have also come out of the algae and low DO season reasonably well in Chile, with no major biological hits. And we have now entered the winter season in Chile, which normally means much lower biological risks. Knock on the wood. But soft prices, unfortunately, weighed once again on an otherwise strong quarter for Movi Cella, and operation profit came to only 12 million euro on our 13,000 tons harvest volumes, which is also down from 60 million euro last year in the first quarter on then 11,000 tons harvest volumes. EBIT margin is also down a year from 1.51 euro per kilo to 0.95 euro per kilo. And soft prices are also a recurring theme for Mowi Canada in the quarter. On top of that, we also took a hit on cost in the first quarter due to a high share of harvest volumes from Canada East, which resulted in a loss of 2 million euro in the first quarter, which is substantially down from the 16 million euro we made in the first quarter last year. And we also saw fantastic prices for Canadian salmon. Harvest volumes on the overland were quite stable year over year, 9,000 tons this quarter versus 8,000 tons in the first quarter last year. Other than that, biology was good for Mohawk-Canada in the first quarter with good growth given the prevailing seawater temperatures. It's always cold in Newfoundland during the winter and low mortality. Which brings us to our two smallest farming entities, Mowi Island and Mowi Faroes. And if we start with Mowi Island, our Irish operation delivered both strong earnings and margins in the quarter of 4 million euro and 3.90 euro per kilo respectively, partly driven by egg sales. Biology was also once again good for Mowi Island in the first quarter. We saw also strong earnings for Mowi Faroes, 9 million euro in the first quarter by means of a margin of 3.50 euro per kilo on 2,600 tons harvest volumes. Biological metrics were also strong for Mowi Faroes in the first quarter. Then, the latest addition to the Moe family, Arctic fish, a 51% owned Atlantic, is subsidiary. After challenging second half last year, I have to say it's very encouraging to post strong biological metrics for Arctic fish in the first quarter and a solid margin of 3.79 euro per kilo, which resulted in an operation profit of 10 million euro in the quarter on 2,500 tons harvest volumes. Things have also developed well so far in the second quarter for Arctic fish, but a heads up on realized production cost in the coming quarter due to a very low harvest volume. Other than that, I don't think there's much more to say about Arctic fish in the first quarter, and I think we can conclude on more with farming and move on to consumer products or downstream business. Operation profit was 24 million euro for consumer products in the first quarter, which is down from an unusual strong operation profit of 37 million euro in the first quarter last year, which is mainly explained by a slower market in Americas and tighter margins in Europe. Otherwise, we continue to see strong demand and strong prices for salmon of European origin, whilst the market for our American salmon is a bit more sluggish. But, as we said earlier this morning, we expect things to work themselves out in the American market in due course. Then last one out, Moe Feed. The first quarter is low season with all that entails for our feed business. But just for that, I would say the first quarter was another strong quarter for Moe Feed. They increased volumes year over year and the pace out of the starting blocks indicating new volume and earnings record for the year. And if you take the numbers, sold volumes were 98,000 tons in the first quarter, which is up by 4,000 tons year over year. And Operation EBITDA was 6 million euros in the first quarter, which is in line with the first quarter last year. And feed performance was once again strong in the first quarter, which is, of course, of utmost importance to us as the world's largest farmer by far. So Dan, Kristian, I think the floor is all yours. You can walk us through the financial figures and fundamentals in depth. Thank you so far.
Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well, and I hope that you can hear me loud and clear. So as usual, we start with the overview of profit and loss, which shows a top line of 1.33 billion euros Revenue, operational EBIT of €201 million, translated into underlying earnings per share of €0.21, and annualized return of capital employed of 14.7%. With regards to the items between operational EBIT and financial EBIT, the main difference is the net fair value adjustment, which was positive 61 million euro at this time around on higher prices. When it comes to result from associated companies, the operational result from NovaSea was 3.20 euro per kilo in Q1, including positive FX effects. And this was equivalent to the result in Mowi region west in the quarter. Financial items were mainly related to interest costs. Then we move on to the financial position, where the balance sheet was somewhat reduced compared with year end 2023. Mowi has a strong financial position with a covenant equity ratio of 51% and Q1. With regards to cash flow, Q1 earnings were partly offset by a net working capital tie-up mainly related to feed inventory and tax payments on high 2023 earnings. CapEx was reduced from 2023 as several large projects have been completed. And when it comes to cash flows, cash flows have been affected by high working capital tie-ups in 2022 and 2023, driven by feed inflation. On a positive note, cost of stock is down in Q1 versus Q4, and feed prices are down approximately 5% in the same period. Note that the marine ingredients represent approximately 40% of the feed price and thereby approximately 20% of the full cost in box in farming. This means that the development in raw material prices is key for further improvements in cash cost and working capital and then of course also realized cost. Bear in mind that The entire cost increase we saw last year in MoE was related to feed inflation, as the other inflationary effects were offset by other improvements related to cost improvements, operational improvements, and scale effects from higher volumes. So this means that this is the key to see further improvements now in cost. And with that in mind, it's very positive that we have seen a good quota for this year's first season of the Peruvian anchovy wild catch. The quota of 2.7 million tons is above normal levels and above the 10-year average, as indicated in the top graph here. Approximately... 0.7 is caught already and the yields have been good so far. And this indicates a positive outlook for further reductions in marine ingredient prices. Fish oil and fish meal prices are already down 22% from the peak. And the backdrop here is that last year's prices for marine ingredients were particularly high, driven by negative El Nino effects. And the price drop is illustrated in the graph below here. So looking into the expected P&L cost development ahead, we expect a lower P&L cost level per kilo in the second half versus the first half of 2024 on improved biology and prospects of lower feed prices and positive scale effects. As Ivan already mentioned, Q2 is expected to be impacted by seasonally low volumes and knock-on effects of winter sores in Norway. When it comes to the full year cash flow guidance for 2024, we have kept that unchanged versus the Q4 reporting, but with a potential upside, i.e. potentially lower tie-up in working capital, depending on the feed price development. In April, we successfully issued two green unsecured bonds. We are glad to state that MAUI has the lowest cost of bond financing in the industry. As part of this process, we obtained an investment grade rating from NCR. We issued two NOC bonds, but these have been swapped to Euro. First one is a five-year bond amounting to 213 million euro with a coupon of Euribor plus 1.19%. And the other one is an eight-year bond amounting to 85 million euro with a coupon of Euribor plus 1.47%. Both are floating after swaps. And this means that we have now performed the refinancing of the 2020 bond of 200 million euro, which matures in January. And we have also improved our liquidity. So this slide shows an overview of our financing, and this has then been updated with the two bonds amounting to a total of 298 million euro issued now in April. And then there are no instruments maturing until 2026. And we have a 95% sustainable financing with the remaining instrument being the 150 million euro shield shine. So much for P&L balance sheet and the finance situation. So we move on to market fundamentals and start with the industry supply of salmon. Global supply of salmon was relatively stable versus Q1 when adjusted for inventory release. Adjusted for this, supply increased by 0.5%. Volumes from the Norwegian farmers were impacted by winter sores, string jellyfish, and an unusual cold winter. In Scotland, we saw improvements in survival rates, and this provided somewhat higher volumes, while in Chile, volumes were reduced as expected. Both in Norway and Chile, standing biomass is down approximately 2% year on year, which indicates muted volume growth ahead. Consumption growth was 4% in EU plus UK. We see a strong demand in Europe on continued good retail demand and a stable good level for food service. In the US, consumption decreased by 3% on muted demand developments in retail and the food service sector, which has experienced headwinds from increased cost of living. But shelf prices in the US trend down, and we believe this will boost demand from the consumers in the time ahead. This is the dynamics we usually see. The U.S. market has grown by 6% CAGR the last five years, double the global growth rate, and we expect the current short-term demand fluctuations to work itself out in due course and demand to improve in the U.S. The U.S. is the largest single market, and we think that the U.S. presents lots of opportunities for Moe. Brazil saw good growth in the quarter, driven by food service. In Asia, the recovery in China continued on strong food service developments. This was partly offset by lack of volumes in the rest of the regions. So while European prices have been strong, Chilean and Canadian prices have been on the soft side. But I would say that at least for Canadian, the most recent price developments in America have been positive. And we believe that this situation will nevertheless improve in the time ahead. When it comes to industry supply growth, we estimate low supply growth of only 1% for the industry in 2024, in line with the estimate from Contali. And we expect limited supply growth also in the coming years, around 2% on average. But with regards to our own volume guidance, we maintain the guidance of all-time high 500,000 tons supported by seasonal record high standing biomass in C. And this means that 2024 is expected to be a continuation of the growth journey we have seen in Norway now for the last years, with 125,000 tons of mainly organic growth in six years and a CAGR of 4.9% versus the industry at only 2.7%. And the key contributor to further organic growth is our extensive post-malt program, which we only know are beginning to reap the rewards of. This is also expected to further improve our biological metrics, including survival rates. And by the end of 2024, we expect 25% post-malt coverage for the Maui group. And 50% for MAUI Norway, excluding the naturally more resilient region north. And these slides illustrate various concepts we have with regards to ongoing post-malt projects in the group. With that, it's over to Ivan for some comments on the outlook.
Thank you for that, Christian. Much appreciated. Then it's time to conclude with some closing remarks before we wrap it all up with a Q&A session hosted by our IRO, Kim Dusvik. And as I said earlier this morning, the first quarter goes down in history as one of our more challenging quarters due to seasonal issues with winter storms and downgrades in Norway. This time around significantly compounded by issues with apodemia or string jellyfish in addition to an unusual cold winter with many storms. On a positive note, however, biology has improved for Norway in the second quarter, and what is more, The feed price, the most important input factor by far in salmon farming, is also somewhat down in the new year. And it may fall even lower with a normalized angiobe fishery in Peru this year, after a Nino disrupted fishery last year. So as of today, we expect a lower cost level for more farming as we enter the second half of the year. And hopefully this is also some sort of a cost peak after a few years with unprecedented cost inflation. The second quarter on the overrun, we lost the first quarter. We impacted by seasonally low harvest volumes and low dilution of costs in addition to knock-on effects of winter sores for Moe in Norway. In terms of the market, we continue to see strong demand and strong prices for our European salmon, whilst regrettably the market for our American salmon is a bit more sluggish. But as we said earlier this morning, we have been through periods of price divergence between the American and European salmon before, and we strongly believe history will repeat itself also this time around. with price convergence when the dust settles and a re-establishment of, once again, one global sum and price adjusted for logistics and quality. So in our view, it's not a question of if, it's a question of when. Furthermore, the supply side looks favourable. Within practice, no growth this year and very limited growth in the coming years. So all in all, fundamentals are still looking good in our view. For our parts, we have, as Christian just showed us, maintained our harvest volume guidance of record high 500,000 tonnes for this year, which is... equivalent to a growth of 5.3% year-over-year, which means that, once again, our growth rate surpasses that of the wider industry by a large margin. And this volume guidance is also supported by a record high, seasonal record high, standing biomass in C at the end of the quarter. And last but not least, please save the date of the 25th and 26th of September, because then we will arrange a capital markets day in mid-Norway, where we will present our strategic and operational plans for the coming years. And there you will also get the opportunity to have a first-hand look at our 410,000 tons feed factory in Byung, our 6,200 tons smolt and postmolt facility at Norheim, Our brand new state-of-the-art 100,000 tons primary processing plant at Jysnøya, our remote operation center in mid-Norway, a smart farming concept. Site visits, of course, to mention a few. So once again, please save the date of the 25th and 26th of September. I think it will be worth your while. So it is marketing at the end, Kim. I think we are ready for the Q&A session. So if Christian can please join me on the floor.
Very good. Thank you, Ivan. So we have received some questions from the web, but I think this time we'll start with questions from the audience.
Christian, Arctic Securities. Can you comment on how superior shares in Norway are today versus the average during Q1?
We are not specific about the numbers as such because it's commercial sensitive, obviously, but it's better and it's gradually increasing. So the second quarter is a recovery quarter in terms of quality, in terms of harvest rates, growth, etc. We are back on track. So things are looking much better in... More in Norway in the second quarter. And as for the six other farming countries, things are still looking good, and the first quarter was excellent. So we apologize for the first quarter, but sometimes nature hits, and it did this time around. What was unusual this time was that it happened in Norway. We're not used to that.
And when it comes to Chile, we've seen for a number of months that there's been weak smoltz stocking. Do you think that now that we have El Niño behind us that we will see higher smoltz stockings in Chile?
I think Chile has reached to a point now where we won't see any substantial growth. For our part, we will continue to grow gradually as we have done over the past few years. I think for Moby, you can think of the growth trajectory you have seen. For the rest, I think we have reached to some kind of a level where not much will happen, at least in the coming few years. In the longer term, I don't know. It depends on technology, regulation, etc. Thank you. Welcome.
Okay, then continuing with some questions from the web. Alexander Sloan, Barclays. He has also a question on the winter source. But more specifically, what's the outlook for next year, given the new vaccine?
Yeah, so no one knows, of course, but we strongly believe things will be much better next year. We do. Now we have a new vaccine in place, and if we take history into account, all ways out of the previous disease issues in this industry have been through vaccines. I think that will also be the solution this time around. And what was very special this year was the jellyfish. So that compounded the issues with winter source significantly. And then I really mean significantly. And we didn't see this coming when we were not prepared. So next time we also prepared with regard to jellyfish. So we have several preventive measures we can take. So I strongly believe that... Next time we stand here, so one year ahead, we will talk about much better, superior quality numbers for Moe in Norway.
Okay, and then his second question is on the 2024 volume guidance. Do you have any buffer left if biological challenges pick up year over year? And can you comment on the biomass development?
Yeah, no, of course, our reserves, they are shrinking. But if you take the biomass we have in sea, use last year and add it up, then I think you end at 500, maybe 501. Depends on how you calculate. So if things can... be in line with last year i think we are good but of course there are also limits for us in terms of buffers so and in this industry everything can happen but last year wasn't great so i i strongly believe in these numbers i i got to say and uh as of today it's the best estimate if but if of course big things happen then it will impact it that's that's never again
You talk about expanding your processing capacity in Norway for upgrading fish with winter source. What kind of upgrades are you talking about? Any meaningful capex, adding on filleting lines to existing facilities or new facilities?
Yes to the last part of your question, and no to the first part, and if I should repeat the question. So no additional capex, and yes, we are increasing our filleting capacity in Norway. So we are doubling it year over year. So we are taking all the measures we can, right? So we do not put all our eggs in one basket. We introduce vaccine, we prevent the measures at sea, we are increasing our upgrading capacity, So I cannot guarantee anything, but we do everything in our power to avoid such a situation again, because this is the core of our business. So we have seven farming countries, but Norway is and will always be number one region for more in Norway. And we are used to very different numbers than what we are reporting this time around. So then we take actions.
So in the U.S. market, you say demand is a bit sluggish. Is it possible to give some more color? Is it certain products? Is it the high end? Is it the low end? Yeah, so just some additional color on sort of why it's sluggish.
Yeah, so we see that there is somewhat more headwinds related to pre-packed products, the natural fresh. But we also see that we have now several quarters with with downward adjustments and retail prices, 3%, 2%, and then last quarter, 1%. So I would say that these numbers suggest that we should see some boosting effects on demand in the US in the time ahead. It's no question that it has been a little bit sluggish so far. I would say that bulk salmon has offset some of these developments in pre-packed and natural fresh, but the overall price development is for everyone to see, but we are confident that this situation is temporary and this will improve in the time ahead.
And then one question from the web, Alexander Jones, Bank of America. He's got a question on the markets division for you, Christian. If the markets had a very strong quarter, and how much of this is sustainable versus how much is a one-off perhaps linked to the strong trading activity in the quarter?
So we have done reviews of agreements and of the setup. So we believe that you will see higher earnings in the market segment versus what has been the history in Norway. So I would say that, of course, in general, you will see higher earnings. But note that the upgrading effects we have had now in Norway in the first quarter related to the filleting They have been included in the markets segment. So that means also that due to the special winter storm situation this time around, there is an extra effect related to that. So this time around, there is two effects, I would say. In general, a review of agreements and the setup, and a special filleting effect. So I think we can leave it at that so far.
And then one last question from the web, back to Barclays and Alexander Sloan. On cost, 20% cost in box is marine feed, and prices are down 20% from peak. Can we assume material cost reduction into next year, all else being equal?
20%, I think that's volume-wise, cost-wise, I think it's 40%. But we have only got it on the second half, where we believe in cost reduction, which also we have support in our numbers. Next year is very early days. We have a second half. Biologically, we have to work ourselves through. So it's hard to say, but during the presentation, We said that we hope this is some sort of a cost peak after a few years with unprecedented inflation. So indirectly, we also suggest that, yeah, we hope that we can see a drop also next year. But for the sake, we don't know. So we have any numbers saying that. So this is just... us looking into a crystal ball, where we also include some hope. So take it for what it is. But for the second half, we have support in our numbers. So unless nothing goes wrong significantly, I think we will see that. If not, I will be disappointed. Okay, that concludes the Q&A. Okay, then it only remains for me to thank everyone for the attention. We hope to see you back already in August on our second quarter release, and we also hope to see some of you in Region Mid at our Capital Markets Day on the 25th and 26th of September. Thank you.