National Bank of Greece S.A

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Konstantinos, your course call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the National Bank of Greece conference call to present and discuss the first quarter 2023 financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Pavlos Milonas, CEO of National Bank of Greece. Mr. Milonas, you may now proceed.

Good afternoon, everyone, and good morning to those of you joining from the U.S., Welcome to our first quarter financial results call. I'm joined by Christos Christovoulou, Group CFO, Greg Papalioris, Group Head of IR.

After my introductory remarks, Christos will go into more detail on our financial performance, and then we will turn to Q&A. I think it would be useful if I begin with a brief overview of Greece's economic performance before I turn to our financial performance for the first quarter of 23. Let us begin. Greece entered the year with strong momentum from a very dynamic 2022. Recall that fourth quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted. Furthermore, economic developments continued to be very positive in the first months of the year, despite the slowdown in the year-on-year and the sharp tightening of monetary policy. Employment creation remained strong, with the unemployment rate fast approaching a psychological barrier of 10%, while expectations for tourism revenues are high on the back of a sharp pickup in bookings and airport traffic. Tourism revenues should exceed the record for 2022 by a solid margin. On the fiscal side, Greece recorded a small primary surplus in 2022, overperforming strongly against the budget target for a primary deficit of 1.6% of GDP. The overall performance continued in the fourth quarter of 2023, or the first four months of 2023, I should say, with a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP in the state budget compared with a target of a deficit of 0.3% of GDP. On the inflation front, pressures are easing at a faster-than-expected pace with a harmonized index down to 4.5% year-on-year in April on the back of falling energy at flattening food prices. Adding to the positive outlook, fixed capital formation should be strong due to the large pipeline of private sector investments and the increasing use of RRF funds. In fact, fixed investments are expected to rise at a double-digit pace for a third year in a row, driven by high capacity utilization rates, strong corporate profitability, and positive demand prospects. Overall GDP estimates are continuously being revised upward, and output is now expected to increase in the 2.5% to 3% range in 2023, with the potential for further upward revisions. With macro developments being increasingly supportive and government policies assisting the more vulnerable, the country is unlikely to experience a new wave of NPEs. nor a notable slowdown in credit demand, especially from the more dynamic corporate sector with many projects in advanced stages. Indeed, nearly halfway through 2023, it is comforting that in the case of MBG, early delinquencies remain controlled while there has not been a meaningful increase in MPEs. An additional factor has been the banking sector's initiatives to absorb part of the rate increase. These comprise support to vulnerable borrowers in the form of interest rate subsidies and rate caps regarding further increases in variable rate mortgages. Additionally, in the case of NBG, as regards overall loan pricing, we have already absorbed about 30% of the base rate increases since the beginning of the rate cycle last year. Moreover, we also introduced to market a series of flexible to fixed mortgage refinancing products. Regarding loan demand, corporate credit remained strong in the first quarter of 23. Specifically, NVG's domestic corporate performance loans were up 16% year-on-year, despite repayments of working capital facilities from corporates with excess cash. We expect demand to be significantly stronger in the second half of the year. Now to turn to the P&L results. Combining the positive economic backdrop with the results of our multi-year transformation, and the comparative advantage of our solid balance sheet, we have continued delivering strong profitability in the first quarter of 2023. Our NII continued to grow, up by 18% quarter-on-quarter to half a billion. Speed growth continued at a double-digit pace after adjusting for the impact of the deconsolidation of the merchant acquiring business. And finally, operating as well as credit costs were contained despite the inflationary environment. As a result of the strong core income growth and relatively inelastic operating costs, we have reduced our cost of core income to just 34% in the first quarter. This is an all-time low, which compares favorably across banks in Europe. Please recall that the level of this KPI was 70% only three years ago. As a result, we have delivered a core PAC of $230 million in the first quarter of 2023, which translates into a core return on tangible equity of nearly 15%. This exceeds our cost of equity for the first time in many years. Among the key components of our success remains our strong capital and liquidity positions. On the liquidity front, MBG's traditional deposit base comprises mainly of the core deposits of many small depositors, provide an important and relatively scarce advantage in a period of much tighter liquidity conditions. Indeed, our deposit mix has not changed significantly despite the higher rates, with savings and science deposits accounting for more than 80% of our total deposits. As regards capital, on the back of a strong recurring profitability, we have added a solid 90 base points of core capital in just the first quarter of 2023, driving our fully loaded

set one ratio to 16.5%, a high level by European standards. Now let me turn to dividend distribution.

In view of the high economic uncertainty, the regulator considers a distribution in 2023 out of 22 profits to be premature for the Greek banks. On the positive side, based on our ongoing regulatory dialogue, prospects are very good for a dividend distribution next year out of 2023 earnings. This would be of the order of 20% to 30% payout ratio, significantly higher than what we would have envisaged for a payout ratio this year. And I remind you that this year's dividend, had it occurred, would have had as its main objective to signal the end of the dividend ban.

Please note that we will be building reserves for this higher amount over the year. One final point.

Our results indicate a significant overperformance in the first quarter versus guidance in view of the stronger than expected economic backdrop combined with our solid fundamentals. We plan to review guidance and provide an update at a time later in the year which will allow us to look at the key profitability drivers and allow to see them stabilize. Clearly, the guidance will be significantly more positive. And now with that, I would like to pass the floor to our group CFO, Christos, who will provide additional insights to our financial performance before we turn to Q&A.

Thank you, Bob. Starting with profitability on slide 15, our attributable profit after tax in Q1-23 climbed to $260 million. Co-profit after tax reached $228 million, 16% higher quarter-on-quarter, and nearly three times higher year-on-year. translating into a core return on tangible equity of 15%, well above our full year 23 guidance of circa 11%. The drivers behind this strong performance derive mostly from our solid core income, which is up by 14% quarter on quarter. The sharp improvement in core revenue generation is a tale of two parts. Firstly, performing loan growth of 2.1 billion year on year, Factoring in an exceptionally strong last quarter in 2022 in corporate disbursements, coupled by ECB-based rate effects, drove NII up by 18% quarter-on-quarter, far offsetting higher deposit and emirate-related funding costs. Secondly, double-digit growth across our retail and corporate fee businesses, drove income 11% higher year-on-year on a like-for-like basis, excluding mentioned acquiring, showcasing our efforts to cross-sell and enhance the bank's fee-generating capacity. At the same time, our costs remain relatively contained, with depreciation charges driven by our ongoing strategic IT investment plan, and with the increase in personnel and G&A expenses year-on-year managed in the low single digits in line with guidance. The accelerating growth of our core income, combined with the relatively inelastic costs, led our group cost-to-core income ratio lower by more than 17 percentage points year-on-year to an all-time low of 34%. Cost of risk remained at 70 basis points in Q1, reflecting zero organic NP formation below the full year 23 guidance of circa 80 basis points. Moving to the balance sheet and asset quality on slide 16, disbursements amounted to $1.2 billion in Q1-23, up by 13% year-on-year, driven by corporate. Domestic performing loans, up by 8% year-on-year, stood at $27.6 billion, flat against year-end 22 levels, on the back of higher repayments of working capital facilities from cash-rich corporates. Domestic deposits eased by $0.4 billion, or 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting seasonality, as well as some corporate balance sheet optimization, as mentioned above. On a year-on-year basis, deposits were up by 3%, NPs remain flat quarter-on-quarter at $1.6 billion, just $0.2 billion out of provisions, reflecting zero organic NP flows with no signs of appreciable pickup in earlier years. Domestic NP ratios stood at 5.1% compared to 6.5% a year ago, combining with a best-in-class cash coverage of 89%, slightly higher quarter-on-quarter. Moving to capital on slide 17, in Q1, we maintained high capital generation, A strong profitability through a fully loaded Z1 and total capital ratios 90 basis points higher quarter-on-quarter to 16.5% and 17.6% respectively. As disclosed on the graph, organic capital generation, including DTC, amortization, reached 80 basis points for the quarter. On slide 19, you may see the high-quality structure of our balance sheet, which is coming into play supporting profitability. On the asset side, almost 90% of our loans are floaters, while our securities portfolio is hedged, effectively recovering floating as well. On the liability side, deposits comprise circa 98% of the total funding net of TOTR balances, of which 81% being core and highly pricing elastic, with an average balance of less than €4,000 per customer, necessitating a marginal rate pass-through. The substitution of core deposits by time is not significant and derives mostly from corporate balance sheet optimization. Overall, our deposit base provides an important advantage in a period of much tighter liquidity conditions. A superior liquidity profile is also manifested by our net cash position of circa $6 billion post-Pool-TLTRO repayment, which supports NII and NIM going forward, as well as by our liquidity coverage ratio of 270%, which is the highest in Greece and among the highest in the Euro area. Now let me provide some further insight to the key drivers of our profitability. Starting with domestic and IAI on slide 20, the strong recovery in interest income from performing balances was sustained at 18% quarter on quarter, benefiting from higher volumes and higher ECB rates that drove loans yield to 5% in Q1, up by circa 70 basis points quarter on quarter. implying a 70% rate as through since the second quarter of 2022. Additionally, interest income from securities reached 90 million in Q1, up by 15% quarter-on-quarter. Time deposit spreads have picked up by 47 basis points quarter-on-quarter in Q1, with new production yields coming in at approximately 120 bps in Q2, implying a beta at circa 40%. As a result, Ning was up by nearly 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 260 basis points in Q1. Moving on to fee income on slide 35, adjusting for the deconsolidation of the mentioned aquarium business, domestic fees expanded by 13% year-on-year, further supporting the bank's sustainable core revenue stream, as retail and corporate fee businesses were up by 18% and 10% respectively. with growth spearheaded by cards, deposit product bundles, and trade finance related fees. At the same time, transaction volumes picked up year on year across channels, with the most notable movement witnessed in e-banking transactions, up by 16% year on year, testament to the quality of our digital offering, also acknowledged by third-party service and awards. Operating expenses are presented on slide 26. Personnel G&E expenses were up by 3% year-on-year in line with guidance, reflecting increased union-agreed wages and inflationary pressures exceeding 6% during the first quarter of the year, while the 10.9% year-on-year increase in depreciation charges reflects the incurred capex for IT investments, which includes the ongoing replacement of our core banking system. All in all, operating expenses were up by 4.7% year-on-year with further optimization actions keeping costs under control going forward. Turning to asset quality on slides 27 to 29, we have not experienced notable deterioration in Q1, as domestic NPs were flat quarter-on-quarter and network current NP flows stood at zero levels. Defaults and re-defaults remain low, while curings normalized back to 2022 average levels, excluding an exceptionally strong Q4-22, that have benefited from few large cures within our corporate portfolio. For poor MPEs, less than 30 days past due comprise 30% of our MPEs, fueling future cures. Notably, the sector initiatives to support vulnerable borrowers and to cut further increases in variable rate mortgages, combined with government policies to protect household incomes from the increase in energy prices, should also shift asset quality going forward. Finally, in terms of provision coverages, We maintain sector-leading levels across all stages, as shown on slide 29. On slide 31 and 32, we provide our key ESG priorities. We are pushing forward with our environment and climate strategy within our broader ESG agenda, leading the market in sustainable energy financing, materially supporting the clean transition of businesses and households. Our ESG achievements are widely recognized. with MBG included in the most sustainable companies in Greece for 2023 by QualityNet, as well as in the platinum category of Forbes' ESG Transparency Index for 2023. MBG has delivered yet another quarter of strong results. We have demonstrated sustained strength across our business. Corporate availability is sharply higher, translating into a core return on tangible equity of 15%, while the quality of our balance sheet and our robust capital buffers remain resilient to tightening monetary conditions. Our Q1 performance is testament to our capacity to deliver class-leading results and returns to our shareholders, staying committed to NBG being the bank of first choice in Greece. And with that, let's now open the floor to questions.

The first question is from the line of Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, on the net interest margin, in the light of higher interest rate environment and the number of hikes since your guidance and also the caps on the interest rate hikes for the mortgage loans, What level of pass-through do you expect from the remaining rate hikes on the performing loan yields and what outlook on the net interest margin could you share for this year? That's the first question.

Let me answer the question there. As we said already, we will provide updates on guidance later in the year when the profitability drivers will stabilize or be more clear. We have inflation. We have ECB rates expectation for further increases. Deposit beta is moving. Volume growth and reliance. So it's not that easy to guide you now on the revision of NIM, but certainly there's significant upside risk there. Now, with regards to pass-through on loans, we have seen so far a pass-through at about 70% if we measure that since the beginning of the increase in the rates in the second half of 2022. What we have said in previous courses and we continue to see happening is that about a third of the increase in the rates will be passed through the customer, so we aspire that will remain at these levels in terms of pass-through rates. With regards to the council mortgages, the effect that we have is effectively a foregone income. It is not material. It's in the area of less than 10 million euros.

So we are comfortable with that.

Okay. Then another question. May I ask to clarify a bit on the dividends? as you guided previously you planned the dividend payment from the profits of 2022 was the approval from the regulator received with this regard and also did you accrue the portion for the dividends for this year for the year 2023 already in your capital

Okay, so as the CEO said in his remarks, the regulator, given the economic uncertainty, considers that the distribution this year out of 2022 profits is premature for all Greek banks. So if you remember last year, we had already provided about 20 basis points for dividend. Our intention, given the expectation that we would be paying dividend next year out of 2023 profits in a more substantial manner, we will be accruing during the year the amount required to reach a payout ratio in the area between 20 and 30%.

And as long as you already accrued 20 basis points, you will add another 20 basis points on the top of that?

Yeah, we will accrue whatever it takes given the expectation of profitability for the year to achieve a payout ratio in the area of 20 to 30%, yes.

Okay. And finally, the question is, what implications do you see from the possible investment upgrade operationally on NBG on the securities portfolio or any other considerations which you could share?

Thank you. So, with regards to the along the way to the investment grade. I think that we will see some upside has to do with the supply and the pricing with regards to the liability side of our emerald issuances. In terms of our securities portfolio, given the fact that the bonds are fixed rate, we don't expect to receive any upside on our NII from the securities. We have some benefit on trading because of the hedging and the fact that the bonds will receive a better rate.

Okay, thank you very much for these answers, very helpful.

The next question is from the line of Alevisakos Alevisos with Axia Ventures. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you very much for the presentation and thank you very much for taking my questions and well done. for the set of results. I wanted to follow up a bit on the previous question regarding the dividend. It seems to me like perhaps some of the SSM conversations were a bit, let's say, conservative this year. And at the same time, I understand that you are very profitable right now and you generate a lot of capital per year. So I was wondering whether perhaps the regulator would be It would be easier for the regulator to kind of allow you to use your excess capital in other ways. And I wanted to ask you how you are considering to use this excess capital, perhaps, apart from doing the obvious, which is lending. And then the second question, which is related to that, is I can see a very strong investment securities growth during the quarter. I think it's more than 10%. what made you actually invest so much during this quarter you think right now that you can get a lot of better yields compared to let's say this quarter that it was a bit weak in terms of lending disbursements due to seasonality thank you on the first question with regards to capital obviously the level of capital that we have gives us optionalities obviously being a bank that operates in Greece our main priority

is to help the economy grow and lend Greek businesses and households. Having said that, given the level of capital and liquidity we have, we're exploring opportunities of assets that would help us generate value given the level of target return on equity we have outside the Greek jurisdiction as well. Obviously, going forward, any way of remunerating our shareholders is something that we will consider. But all that is subject to the regulatory dialogue, as we already said. With regards to the investment in our securities portfolio, we don't have a point that we want to reach. We said many times that we are comfortable with the level of securities we have. In the first quarter, what we've done, we participated in acquiring about half a billion of Greek government bonds, as well as treasury bills which is a good option for us now given the level of the rates that are available at the moment. So that was it. It's not a change of our strategy overall and we are comfortable with the position of GDPs we have for the last three years.

Yes, thank you for that. And if I may follow on the investment securities. Was the higher than expected trading income in the quarter a result of something that was one-off related to the investment securities? Thank you.

We did materialize some profitability in the trading income from disposal of securities, yes.

All right. Thank you very much and well done for this set of results.

The next question is from Lanoff Creeland Sanford Benji with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

yeah I good afternoon Benji here at Jefferies thank you for taking the question and my first question sorry it's another follow-up on on the dividend and I guess I just wondering in the context of the discussion with the regulator and I know you flagged the economic uncertainty I'm just wondering if there's any other sort of factors being taken into account by the regulator when thinking about dividend approval and in particular whether the size of deferred tax credit portfolios is a discussion factor with the regulator when considering payout approvals. The second question was just on asset quality. The MP ratio was flat quarter on quarter. I guess you can argue that there was a modest sort of tick up in the growth inflows in the quarter, but nothing material. I'm just wondering whether you're seeing any kind of red flags on the asset quality front at this point, any particular sectors that you're concerned about, and obviously you're undershooting the cost of risk guidance for the full year. Any reason to update that at this point? Thank you.

So on your first question, Benji, with regards to the dividend, I cannot put myself in the shoes of the regulator, but I understand that given that Greece is a country that has had a dividend ban for a period of over 10 years, and given the level of our asset quality as a sector now, they want to be extra careful before opening the door. I think that's more or less it. with regards to asset quality and the question that you had there. Indeed, we had a better than expected first quarter with the flat NPE formation. In the second quarter, we do expect to have some formation, but the good thing for us is that it's much better than expected originally. So if you remember, we had about 350 million of formation budgeted for this year. We don't see that happening so far. but Q2 is going to be based on what we expect something with S1 formation.

Okay, thank you very much.

The next question is from the line of Memisoglos Mann with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, many thanks for your time on the presentation. Just wondering on the NII dynamics, how you see it, where do you see it peaking with the current trends you've been observing in Q2 with the deposit mix shift, if anything is changing on that front, for example? That's my first question. And related to this, loan growth, for obvious reasons, have been relatively muted for the sector negative. How do you see that evolving in Q2 and beyond as we get closer to the end of election uncertainty? and just a technical one your tax expenses picked up how should we model that for the next few quarters and maybe beyond as much color as you can get thank you okay Chris will take the tax I'll take the other two the NII will peak in line with the peak in the increase in interest rates by the ECB and

one more, two more second quarter, third quarter okay one quarter, two quarters after that is the peak for the NIA second question was on disbursements I think in the second quarter we are seeing a slightly better result Q&Q than we did in Q1 but most of the strength and our guidance for about one and a half net expansion will come in the second half of the year. This is on the tax.

On the tax question, so our effective tax rate is at around 27%. So this is driven by the corporate tax rates of the banks in Greece at 29%. Let me remind you that other companies in Greece, including our domestic subsidiaries, have a corporate tax rate of 22%. and foreign operations in northern Macedonia at 15% so effectively. The 27% is a mix of all these factors. And the difference that you see compared to last year to take it a step further has to do with the change in mix in our profits, the contribution of the bank versus the other elements in our profitability. And last year we also took some different tax assets on extraordinary profits that we had in the year. But we should be expecting this effective rate going forward as well.

Thank you. Maybe if I can squeeze one last one on TLTRO just from an asset size perspective. What's the outlook for that balance? Will it go to zero by the end of the year or earlier, later?

So as you saw, starting from the $11.6 billion back in Q3 2022 and now down to $5 billion. We then repaid $3.1 billion in Q1. and we have a normal repayment at the end of June of another 3.1 billion, so that will take us down to 1.8 billion. That chunk matures in 2024, so we'll explore whether we would repay this year or at the beginning of next year, but in any case, the amount is not meaningful anymore.

Right. Thank you.

The next question is from the line of Nellis Simon with Citibank. Please go ahead.

Oh, hi. Thanks very much for the opportunity. Yeah, my first question, I'm just still struggling a bit on the capital walk. I see that your core tier one, well, actually your total capital went up 365 million euros over the quarter, but you only made 260 million of profit. Can you walk us through what the other drivers of the capital build was? And then I was also confused on the dividend accrual. So you're saying that you will aim to pay 20% to 30% payout out of this year's earnings, but when will you start accruing and have you started accruing? That will be my other question on capital.

Okay, so let's talk about the capital data first. So about 100 basis points is from profits. We have like 10 basis points dragged from refunded assets and then we have a DTC amortization of another 10 basis points and about 10 basis points upside from the head to collect and sell fair value portfolios. So that makes up for the 90 basis points absent that you see in capital. With regards to my comment on dividend and dividend accrual, what we said we will build up the reserves required for a dividend of about 20% to 30% out of this year's profit next year. And given the fact that we've already provided about 20 basis points last year, in our capital stack, we will do the remaining required so that we capture that target payout ratio. We'll do that every quarter bit by bit.

Okay, so this quarter you didn't add any further?

No, not because we effectively have the results that we build up.

Understood.

Okay, and then just maybe on costs,

particularly on any restructuring costs actually the 18 million of the below the line negative 18 million what was that and how much of restructuring costs do you expect this year and next year if you could remind me the ones that you see below the line are restructuring costs that have to do with it's a provision that we take for ex-employees

and with regards to plans for additional infrastructure in question in the year, we have some. So we're currently assessing the plans that we have. It's going to be a small one. It's not going to be like the ones that we had the years before.

Okay. Lepete is $9 million, right, per quarter? It's a bit less. A bit less. So what's the – I mean, I guess it's small, but what's the remaining –

But we'll have to continue with this impairment for another eight years.

Yeah, but I think there was an 18 million negative one-off. So if less than nine was, let's say, what's the rest?

The rest has to do with other impairments that have to do with the health for sale portfolios.

Ah, okay.

That's all from me. Each one, so that's why you haven't been on the list.

The next question is from the line of David Daniel with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I've just got two. The first one is just on deposits. So slide 23, I can see there's been a bit of a shift into time deposits. I'm just interested to how this migration stacks up against your plans for the year. And also on the deposit beta, I can see you've got 7% down there. How does that look against your plan for 2023? And then moving to Emerald, could you just remind us what your Emerald requirement is for Jan 26 and also maybe touch upon your issuance plans for the year in terms of senior and also potentially tier 2. Thanks.

So let's start with the deposits. You've seen that our deposit mix has changed marginally, not by much. We haven't experienced significant further changes in the mix quarter to date. With regards to the beta, so you see that we are at the end of the quarter at the beta of 7% over our total deposits. Our forecast, what we used in the business plan was for a pass-through of 80% in time deposits and 20% in core deposits. So we're far away from what we used in the business plan, and there is significant upside risk there. With regards to your second question on our emerald plants, our final target at the end of 2025 is in the area of 27%. We are currently at 21.8% and the target for the end of the year is at 22.7%. So we have about 90 basis points of catching up to do, which given the level of capital we are able to raise, makes us feel very comfortable. But in any case, we want to approach the gap to the 27% in a linear manner year by year. And we'll be exploring the opportunities given by the market to proceed with some issuances in the next year, probably one this year.

So we'll wait and see.

And that's senior. Are you kind of thinking of tier two separately or just thinking about senior for now?

Even that we don't have any hard constraints, we'll optimize depending on the relative pricing between instruments.

Understood. Thanks.

The next question is a follow-up question from the line of Mehmet Sokol Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Just following up on the potential guidance change, where do you see the upside? Obviously, it's NII, but any other color you can give? Is it cost of risk? Is it somewhere else where fees, any color would be appreciated? Thank you.

Thanks for the question. So, effectively, you said it yourself, NII is the big driver for the change in The numbers and the revision and the guidance. I would say that although it's premature, and given the formation that we see, potentially asset quality-wise and effectively cost of risk could be better. We've guided for 80 basis points. You've seen us accrue for 70 basis points this quarter. So there is potential on that line as well. So apart from those two lines, I think the rest are more or less there.

And maybe just on that, it's a bit of a technicality probably. Greece provisions were actually lower Q&Q. There was a bit of a relative spike in international. I know it's a small bit, but I'm guessing all the asset quality events there are stable as well?

It's stable as well. It has to do with optimization of coverages and the changes in the mix of the portfolio.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you all for joining us for the first quarter results call. We are available for any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you all for attending.