7/22/2025

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

Sorry for some technical trouble. We are back again. Welcome to Hydro's second quarter 2025 presentation and Q&A. We will start off with a presentation by our president and CEO, Eivind Kallevik, before our CFO, Trond Olav Kristoffersen, will take us through the financial results. So we will finish off with the Q&A session. If you would like to ask questions during the session, you can write your questions in the chat that you should see on the screen. After presentations, I will ask your questions directly to Eivind and to Olaf. But before that, we have a presentation. And with that, I leave the word to you, Eivind.

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

Thank you, Martina, and good morning and welcome from me as well. Safety remains the most important part of our quarterly reporting, as the well-being of our employees is fundamental for our success across all locations. And this quarter, I'm pleased to report a low number of injuries. Both the total recordable injuries and the number of high-risk incidents have shown a downward trend over the past few years. And this quarter, we have successfully maintained these low numbers. This positive development is a testament to the daily efforts at all our plants. Safety is an ongoing commitment, because even though we can record good results today, we are mindful that conditions can quickly change if we lose focus. First and foremost, a strong safety culture demonstrates care for our employees, ensuring everybody returns home safely at the end of the day, and that is our most important responsibility as an employer. While employee well-being will always be our primary motivation, maintaining good safety performance also contributes positively to the stability and efficiency of our operations. Fewer incidents naturally lead to less downtime and lower costs, enabling us to better execute on targets and strengthen our long-term value creation. Now let's look at the key highlights this quarter, which we will dig deeper into in today's presentation. Despite an unpredictable market environment, I'm pleased to report strong results this quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA coming in at 7.8 billion Norwegian kroner. Also yielding a free cash flow at NOK 5 billion, giving us an adjusted ROACHE of 12%, which is well above the target of 10% over the cycle. To respond proactively to market volatility, we are reducing our 2025 capital expenditure target by 1.5 billion Norwegian kroner, and we have implemented hiring freeze for white collar employees in the company. Both of these actions are designed to enhance our flexibility and resilience, and I will get back to these details and measures shortly. On the energy side, despite challenges in the wind and solar markets, both in Brazil and the Nordics, we have managed to stay well positioned in a volatile landscape with a robust sourcing portfolio. And lastly, we can report that we are well on our track executing on our improvement targets for 2025. Geopolitical unpredictability has become the norm rather than exception, in particular in the years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And this is now well into its fourth year. Rivalry and rhetoric between great powers is becoming even more pronounced, and tensions in the Middle East have escalated beyond Gaza, including Lebanon, Syria, and Iran in just the past few months. Countries are facing direct threats, global markets are under pressure, and this is weighing on consumer confidence. And in the US, the Trump administration has completed its first six months, and we've seen constant changes related to tariffs and to trade. As a global company operating in more than 40 countries, trade tensions, conflicts, and rising geopolitical risks affect the entire value chain. We are closely monitoring these developments, both the direct impact on our locations and the potential ripple effects on the global economy. And that allows us to take proactive steps to mitigate these challenges. On a more positive note, we continue to see strong regulatory momentum for sustainability in climate action in Europe. Most recently, with the European Commission's proposal for a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. And despite different trends elsewhere, as well as a more challenging market, we continue to see strong demand for low carbon and recycled products in most of our important markets. Both the regulatory direction and the market pool reinforces our strategic direction towards 2030 of pioneering the green aluminium transition. However, to capture the long term opportunities, we also need to react to the challenges in the short term. To effectively address the increasing volatility and unpredictability, we are taking decisive measures. First of all, we are reducing our full-year 2025 CAPEX guidance by NOC 1.5 billion. The current economic and geopolitical environment, with trade disruptions, regulatory uncertainty and unpredictable markets, requires enhanced flexibility in forecasting as well as our capacity planning. The revised investments will specifically target flexibility, robust risk management and rapid adaptability to economic and policy changes. This positions Hydro to maintain our strategic agility, ensuring that we remain one step ahead in navigating future uncertainties. Secondly, we have implemented an external hiring freeze for all white collar positions across the group functions, business areas, global business services, and this is effective immediately. This freeze gives us necessary space and clarity to thoroughly review the current white collar workforce. The goal of this review is to ensure optimal alignment with our strategic priorities, operational efficiency and evolving business needs. This process has just begun and we will share additional information as it becomes available. The markets for wind and solar are facing challenges. Despite this, we can still report on a robust sourcing portfolio. As illustrated in the graph to the right, we have power purchase agreements that will cover our sourcing need at the Norwegian smelters beyond 2030. This ensures robustness in challenging markets. But as we can see on the left side of the slide, we have just recently decided to terminate the Nordic Power Purchase Agreement due to undelivered volumes. Since November 2024, we have faced challenges with Swedish cloud Snurran AB, and in July we agreed to voluntarily terminate the Power Purchase Agreement. This entitles Hydro to compensations of up to 90 million euros for the non-delivered volumes and for the future power deliveries. The ultimate compensation will, of course, depend on the realized values from a future sales process and an agreed value sharing mechanism. This event reinforces the value of pursuing a diversified and robust sourcing portfolio. We are constantly exploring options and actively pursuing cost competitive renewable power sources to remain robust also for the future. In Brazil, we continue to see challenges with the grid, ongoing constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and some regulatory uncertainty. These factors continue to limit renewable energy deliveries and put pressure on both volumes and prices. Given these structural issues, Hydro has adjusted the return requirements for our energy investments in Brazil. And as a consequence, we report roughly 400 million in impairments in our Brazilian energy assets. On the other side, the power deliveries to Albas and Alunorte continue in accordance with the PPAs entered into. We can see from the graph below on the right hand side that the power sourcing situation in Brazil will continue to be stable over the next years. Halfway into 2025, I'm also very pleased to report on the status of our 2030 improvement program. Several initiatives have been implemented so far this year, and I'm really proud to say that we are ahead of target. Let me highlight a few concrete actions from the first half of 2025. First of all, we are expanding on our greener sales. Year to date 2025, we've increased sales of greener products by nearly 50% compared to 2024, measured in total upcharge revenue. In this quarter, we also signed the first heterocycled sales contract with a major auto manufacturer in North America. This milestone agreement, along with a strong growth in greener sales, supports the long-term market assumptions behind the 2030 strategy. And just to illustrate how far the sustainability position we have now extends, on a slightly lighter note, we were even named Sustainable Achievement of the Year by El Decoration International in April. Now, of course, this is not exactly your standard metals and mining award, but it certainly speaks volumes about the strength of our brand. Showing how Hydro's position as the leading provider of low carbon and recycled aluminum is gaining recognition far beyond traditional industrial cycles. As well as a clear signal that our leadership and sustainability translates into premium value for our customers and for Hydro. Secondly, in extrusions we continue to pursue efficiency improvements. Through automation we expect to reduce more than 100 FTEs in 2025 and additional 200 to 250 in 2026. This program has roughly a three-year payback period and is expected to deliver close to 150 million NOC in annual cost reductions. Standardization of automation equipment is a key enabler in this process. These projects help improve ergonomics, productivity, quality and safety, while also easing recruitment challenges in a tight labor market. Bidder Extrusions has faced a challenging market for some time, yet executing on a broad set of initiatives has yielded a more robust and competitive business. The improvement program continues to drive us steadily towards our 2030 target of 6.5 billion NOC in accumulated improvements. On the commercial side, we are making progress through various growth initiatives. On the procurement side, we are delivering sourcing savings in line with the targets. And operationally, we remain focused on cost reductions and efficiency in support functions. So in short, we are continuing to push forward and we remain on track to reach the 2030 goals. And with that, I hand the word over to Trond Olav for this quarter's financial update.

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Eivind, and good morning and welcome from me as well. Starting with the bauxite and alumina. After an eventful 2024 dominated by refinery disruptions and bauxite supply challenges, the global alumina market has been stabilizing since the start of 2025. Around 10 million tons of new alumina capacity is expected to come online from India, Indonesia and China this year, with full impact expected in 2026. After a fall in alumina prices we saw in Q1, prices have stabilized around $360 per tonne for most of Q2, with a small drop to $330 per tonne early in the quarter. On the bauxite side, the market witnessed some notable events in Guinea. After revoking several bauxite mining licenses in the country, the government announced a package of measures aimed at increasing the government's influence in the industry. The proposed reforms include, amongst others, the creation of a Guinean bauxite index and the use of ships with Guinean registrations to transport at least 50% of bauxite output. At the same time, China is becoming more and more dependent on Guinea as the main external source for bauxite, and the Guinean import share peaked at above 80% during the quarter. Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the alumina market outside China is expected to remain tight, but oversupply in China could meet any shortfall. According to CRU, a small surplus of around 700,000 tons is expected in 2025 in the 58 million ton world ex-China market. Consequently, the market would remain sensitive to any production disruptions. On June 4th, the rate increase for US section 232 tariffs on aluminium came into effect, raising the tariffs from the initial 25% established in March this year to the new 50% level. This impacted both LME and premiums. Looking at the global primary aluminium balance, external estimates suggest that the market will remain roughly balanced in 2025. But in light of continued tariff developments, the global aluminum market outlook for 2025 could be revised towards lower demand for the year. The three-month LME aluminum price dropped sharply early in the quarter towards $2,300 per tonne, following the US Administration's Liberation Day announcements on tariffs. However, prices later recovered, and overall, the three-month aluminum price increased over the quarter, starting at US$2,507 per ton and ending at US$2,598 per ton. This upward movement contrasts with the more stable price development seen in Q1, reflecting both speculative activity and shifting market sentiment. Regional premiums were materially impacted by tariffs during the quarter, further increasing the gap between different regions. The US Midwest premium surged from 844 USD to 1432 USD per ton during Q2, driven by the tariff hike and speculative activity reaching all-time highs in early June. On the other hand, European duty paid Standard Ingo premiums declined from 205 USD to 185 USD per ton, reflecting weak demand and concerns over redirected Canadian metal inflows into Europe. This divergence in regional premiums highlights a growing imbalance in how different regional markets are absorbing the effects of trade policy and geopolitical risks. Rather than the tariffs' direct impact on the company, Hydro's main concern remains the broader risk of a global economic slowdown, which would weaken demand and challenge current price levels as a consequence. Furthermore, long-lasting high Midwest premiums could pose a real risk of demand destruction in the US. Extrusion demand continued at moderate levels in both Europe and North America during Q2, with order intakes continuing to increase. In Europe, extrusion demand is estimated to have remained flat in Q2 2025 compared to the same period last year, but increased by 4% from Q1. Demand for building and construction and industrial segments has stabilized at moderate levels, with some uptick in order bookings throughout the quarter. Automotive demand has been negatively impacted by lower European light vehicle production in the quarter, partly offset by increased production of electrical vehicles. For Q3 2025, CRU estimates that European demand for extruded products will increase by 1% year over year. Overall, extrusion demand is estimated to increase by 1% in 2025 compared to 2024. In North America, extrusion demand is estimated to have continued its decline by 1% in Q2 2025 compared to the same quarter last year, but increased 5% compared to Q1. Extrusion demand has continued to be very weak in the commercial transport segment, driven by lower trailer bills. Automotive demand has also been weak. Demand has been positive in the building and construction and industrial segments. While the impacts from the introduction of tariffs and duties are still uncertain at this stage, order bookings have started to develop better for domestic producers due to lower imports. In Q3 2025, North American extrusion demand is expected to further decrease by 1% year over year. Overall, extrusion demand is estimated to decrease 2% in 2025 compared to 2024. Hydro-extrusion sales volumes increased by 1% year-over-year in Q2 2025. Similar to the previous quarter, transport volume developments were negative, but the downward trend seems to be slowing down. Shipments to the US transport market were down 11% in Q2 versus 20% in Q1. Automotive sales in Q2 were still negative in Extrusion Europe, driven by continued moderate production at some car manufacturers. Automotive sales in North America were flat in Q2, as negative overall market development was offset by increasing volumes to key customers. Sales volume growth in the industrial and distribution segments continued to increase in Q2, still from a low base due to market headwinds over the past two years. Hydroextrusions continued to see significant increase in volumes from HVAC and R segment, driven by copper substitution trends. And for Q3, sales volumes in hydro extrusions are expected to be somewhat higher than the underlying market, especially in North America. Then moving to EBITDA, and when looking at the results, Q2 versus Q1, we saw significant negative effects from upstream prices. Of the total negative contribution on NOK 3.7 billion, over 90% came from lower realized alumina prices. Upstream volumes positively impacted the results by around NOK 900 million. This was largely driven by a normalization of all the Norte sales volumes in Q2, following delayed alumina shipments in Q1 from periods with heavy rain. Another positive driver in Q2 was lower raw material costs contributing with approximately NOK 1 billion. The main driver was the lower alumina cost in aluminium metal. Extrusions and recycling results came in relatively flat Q2 versus Q1. In energy, seasonally lower production and lower prices were partly offset by higher gain on price area differences. And the net effect was around negative NOK 300 million. Furthermore, fixed costs remained relatively stable compared to Q1. Currency effects negatively impacted results by around NOK 1 billion. And the total impact was split approximately 60-40 between aluminium metal and bauxite and alumina, partly driven by stronger NOK compared to US dollar. The final positive contribution of NOC 1.4 billion were driven by NOC 1.7 billion in realization of previously eliminated internal profit. This was partly offset by somewhat lower CO2 compensation and net other elements. And this concludes the adjusted EBITDA development from NOC 9.5 billion in Q1 to NOC 7.8 billion in Q2. If we then move to the key financials for the quarter. Comparing year over year, revenue increased by around 4% to NOK 53 billion for Q2. Compared with Q1, revenue decreased by around 7%. For Q2, around NOK 900 million negative effects were adjusted out of EBITDA. The largest items were net unrealized derivative effects of around negative NOC 480 million, mainly related to LME contracts. Also impairment charges on equity-accounted investments of around NOC 390 million due to increased return requirements after assessing risk of energy investments in Brazil. This results in an adjusted EBITDA of NOC 7.8 billion. Depreciations were around NOK 2.5 billion in Q2, resulted in adjusted EBIT of NOK 5.4 billion. Net financial income for Q2 totaled at around negative NOK 800 million. This was largely driven by an unrealized currency loss of around NOK 500 million, mainly reflecting a weaker NOK versus Euro affecting embedded Euro currency exposures in energy contracts and other Euro liabilities. This was partly offset by a stronger BRL versus US dollar, positively impacting US dollar borrowing in our Brazilian entities. These losses were further increased by a net interest and other finance expense amounting to around negative NOK 300 million. Furthermore, we have an income tax expense amounting to NOK 1.1 billion for Q2. The quarter was mainly impacted by high power surtax. Overall, this provides a positive net income of around NOK 2.5 billion. Foreign exchange losses of approximately NOK 500 million are adjusted for, together with the negative EBITDA adjustments mentioned earlier, and partly offset by negative income tax around NOK 300 million, resulting in an adjusted net income of NOK 3.6 billion in Q2. Adjusted net income is up from NOK 1.7 billion in the same quarter last year and down from NOK 4 billion in Q1. Consequently, adjusted EPS was 1.68 NOK per share. And then let's give an overview per business area, starting with the bauxite and alumina. Adjusted EBITDA for bauxite and alumina decreased from NOK 1.6 billion in Q2 2024 to NOK 1.5 billion in Q2 2025. This was mainly driven by high raw material costs and fixed costs and lower alumina prices, partly offset by currency effects and positive year-on-year effects from fuel switch to natural gas being fully implemented. Compared to Q1-25, the adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 5.1 billion to NOK 1.5 billion in Q2-25, mainly driven by lower aluminum price, partly offset by increasing sales volumes. Raw material cost was relatively stable Q2 versus Q1, and fixed costs increased by around NOK 200 million in the lower end of the guiding we provided in our Q1 presentation. For Q3, we expect a production volume at nameplate capacity. Compared to Q2, we expect higher box-out costs in the range of NOK 50 to 100 million, driven by changed box-out mix due to maintenance at Pargo Minas. Raw material prices are expected to be relatively stable based on current market prices. Lastly, fixed and other costs are expected to be relatively stable. Moving to aluminium metal. Adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 2.5 billion in Q2 2024 to NOK 2.4 billion this quarter. The main drivers year on year were higher alumina costs, lower sales volumes and negative currency effects, partly offset by higher all-in metal prices and lower energy costs. Compared to Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA for aluminium metal decreased from NOK 2.5 billion, driven by lower all-in metal prices and negative currency effects, partly offset by lower alumina costs. The raw material cost decreased by around NOK 800 million, which was less than our guiding for Q2 given at Q1 reporting. Reduction was mainly driven by a lower alumina price, partly offset by higher carbon costs and reversal of extra CO2 compensation received in Q1. Increase in fixed cost was slightly below our guidance at around NOK 40 million. And this brings me over to the guiding for the next quarter. For Q3, aluminum metal has booked 67% of the primary production at US$2,482 per ton. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Premiums in Europe have continued to soften into Q3. And we have booked 58% of the premiums affecting Q3 at US$392 per tonne. And we expect realized premiums in the range of US$330 and US$380 per tonne. On the positive side, we expect a net decrease in raw material costs of between NOK 1 and 1.2 billion, mainly driven by lower alumina price. This number includes the effect of our internal alumina hedge with B&A. We expect the seasonally lower fixed costs between NOK 50 and 100 million. And sales volumes are expected to remain stable. Adjusted EBITDA for metal markets decreased in Q2 from NOK 309 million in Q2 last year to NOK 276 million due to exceptionally high results from sourcing and trading activities in Q2 last year. Those were partly offset by increased results from recyclers. Excluding the currency and inventory evaluation effect, the results for Q2 was NOK 308 million down from NOK 357 million in Q2 24. Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA for metal markets increased from negative NOK 14 million, thanks to increased results from recyclers and from sourcing and trading activities. Recycling results ended higher at NOK 136 million, up from NOK 63 million last quarter. The increase was mainly due to improved margins and volumes in Europe, while scrap prices remained stable. Higher production in the US also contributed to the positive development. For Q3, we expect lower recycling results, driven by seasonally lower recycling volumes. In our commercial segment, we anticipate a lower contribution from sourcing and trading activities in Q3, partly offset by positive currency effects. As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. Given the speed into the year, we have adjusted the guidance for the commercial adjusted EBITDA excluding currency and inventory valuation effects for the full year 2025 to knock 300 to 500 million. In extrusions, the adjusted EBITDA decreased year over year from NOK 1.4 billion to NOK 1.3 billion, driven by lower sales margins, partly offset by higher sales volumes and lower fixed costs. We saw 1% higher sales volumes as well as somewhat weakened sales margins, primarily in Europe. Furthermore, lower recycling margins negatively impacted the results, with around NOK 200 million as recycling margins continued to be under pressure, with scrap shortages leading to elevated prices. Compared to Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA for extrusions increased from NOK 1.2 billion thanks to seasonally higher sales volumes and lower fixed costs, partly offset by lower sales margins. Looking into Q3, as always, we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in extrusions. External market estimates suggest positive volume development year-over-year of 1% for Europe and a negative development of 1% for North America. In Q2, we outperformed market expectations and we anticipate this positive trend to continue into the next quarter, with sales volumes expected to exceed market forecasts in both Europe and North America. We also expect a positive metal effect of approximately NOK 200 to 300 million in the Midwest premium, if the Midwest premium stays elevated. However, we also foresee continued pressure in both extrusions margins and recycling margins, which is expected to be partly offset by decreased fixed costs. Despite pressured margins slightly offsetting the higher expected volumes, we expect for the positive to more than offset the negative in Q3 when comparing year over year. Moving then to the final business area, energy. The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 increased from NOK 1.1 billion compared to 611 million in Q2 2024. Higher net spot sales led to higher results year on year, driven by higher prices, higher production and higher price area gains. Compared to Q1, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly from NOK 1.2 billion, mainly due to lower production and prices, offset by higher price area gain and commercial results. The price area gain was NOK 350 million in Q2, an increase from Q1, driven by higher price differences and volumes. Looking into Q3, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in energy. For the next quarter, production volumes and prices are expected to decrease mainly due to seasonally lower consumption. Furthermore, price area differences could stay at a similar level as in Q2. And then let's move to the final financial slide this quarter. Net debt increased by NOK 400 million since Q1. Based on the starting points of NOK 15 billion in net debt from Q4, we have a positive contribution in adjusted EBITDA of NOK 7.8 billion. During Q2, we saw a net operating capital release of NOK 2.9 billion, mainly driven by reduced receivables, which includes the effect from received indirect CO2 compensation as well as reduced inventories. Under other operating cash flow, we have a negative NOK 2.9 billion impact, mainly driven by settlement of tax payables of NOK 2.7 billion in Norway and Brazil, and a negative NOK 0.8 billion of mark-to-market reversals, partly offset by reclassification of NOK 0.9 billion for CO2 receivables for long-term to short-term receivables. On the investment side, we have a net cash effective investments of NOK 2.7 billion. As a result, we had positive free cash flow of NOK 5 billion in Q2. Furthermore, we had a total cash outflow of NOK 5.1 billion related to shareholder distributions, of which NOK 4.4 billion relates to the 2024 dividends, and NOK 700 million paid to the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries related to the conclusion of the 2024-2025 share buyback program. Finally, we have also had negative order effects of NOK 300 million, and this was mainly driven by negative net FX effects on cash debt and new leases. As we move to the adjustments related to adjusted net debt, hedging collateral has remained unchanged at NOK 1.6 billion since the end of Q1. Furthermore, during Q2, the net positive pension position decreased by NOK 500 million, turning into a net liability position of NOK 100 million. And finally, we have an increase in other liabilities in Q2 of NOK 300 million, mainly driven by increased adjustments for captive portfolio assets. With those effects taken into account, we end up with an adjusted net debt position at the end of Q2 of NOK 23 billion. With this, I end the financial update and give the word back to Eivind.

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

Thank you, Trondheim. As we conclude today's session, I'd like to summarize our key priorities. At Hydro, safety remains our foremost priority. We are unwavering in our commitment to maintain the highest safety standards and ensure our performance metrics reflect this dedication. In recent years, we have faced increasing global instability, with risks accelerating over the past few months. This unpredictability represents challenges for the world and for our markets. Despite this volatility, we continue to commit to the strategic direction for 2030, The market for our low carbon products continues to grow and our climate targets are unchanged as we advance on our decarbonisation agenda. And it is encouraging to see that our customers also value these efforts. At Hydro, we do understand that steady operations require constant adaption. Then to navigate instability and to ensure our relevance now and in the future, we must balance long term perspectives with short term adjustments. The uncertainty and changes in our business landscape underscore the importance of our initiatives to increase efficiency and reduce cost in the short term. As such, we have reduced our capex guiding for 2025 with 1.5 billion Norwegian kroner. The improvement program is progressing well and we report progress on our cost-cutting initiatives. Extrusions in particular has experienced challenges over the past few years and remains focused on profitability and cash flow. In response to challenging markets, we have launched a project review to review the number of white collar workers, which is crucial for maintaining structure and setting priorities as we move Hydro forward in the right direction. We are concentrating our efforts on what is important to drive Hydro forward and to ensure that we stay relevant also in the future. As we move ahead, we are committed to our decarbonisation strategy and we will continue to pursue our 2030 ambitions with unfavouring determination. Thank you for your attention and with that I will turn it back over to you Martina.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

Thank you, Eivind and Trond Olav. We will then have a Q&A session. Just reminding, if you would like to ask questions, you need to write your questions in the chat, and then I will read your questions to Eivind and Trond Olav. We already have a couple of questions in the chat, so let's get started. Starting with a question from Liam. On the CAPEX, can you elaborate on which projects' expansion plans you have cut or delayed in 2025? And also, can we assume a similar cut to 2026 if downstream demand remains weak?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

Thanks, Liam. As you will know, most of the CapEx or growth CapEx and return seeking CapEx that we have is guided towards the recycling as well as the extrusion businesses. So without going into any specific projects, that's also where you should expect the reduction to come for 2025. And for me, it's important to say that this also reflects the flexibility that we have in the capital plans going forward. When it comes to 2026 guidance, the guidance currently stands at 15 billion as it has in the past and then we will review that as we go through the second half of this year, how the market develops and then we will give an update at the investor day towards the tail end of the year.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Marcus Pareto. Is the more than 100 FTE reduction within extrusion predominantly blue color? And is the potential of 300 to 350 a mix of white and blue color? And is that a part of the white color review?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So the automation project in extrusions is predominantly around the blue collar workforce. So it does not have any overlap with the white collar review that we're currently doing.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Amos. Can you give a guidance on your expectations for eliminations in EBITDA into Qtree?

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

Well, we don't have a pure guidance on the elimination for the next quarter, but if you look at the accumulated negative eliminations since we saw the alumni price spike, and if you deduct what we now realize this quarter, roughly 4 to 500 million is remaining, and we expect quite a lot of that to come in Q3.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Matt. You have said IRR of more than 10% needed to deliver projects. Does Teruija and Karmøy deliver in the current environment?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

Yes, we still believe that these are good projects and good and solid projects, both the Spanish Recycler as well as the wire rod investments at Karmøy. And do remember that the wire rod project at KAMA is also backed with a long-term off-take agreement with one of the leading cable producers in Europe, NKT. So still solid projects in our portfolio.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Yannis on exclusions. You provided good color for Q3, but if we look at the full year EBITDA range, how are you tracking relative to the guiding range of 3.5, 4.5 that was provided at the Q1 results?

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

Well, we gave this outlook for the extrusion for the full year, and this is still the outlook we have, 3.5 to 4.5. I mean, there's still quite a lot of uncertainty going into second half, really driven by the demand uncertainty and the economic development uncertainty into second half. So this is still the best outlook and guiding we have for the full year.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then another question from Matt. What has changed on your return requirements that drove the impairment in Brazil?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So from time to time, we look at the return requirements and cost of capital requirements for the different business areas and different businesses that we have in Hydro. We did this for energy, needed an update on wind and renewable projects. And with the risk situation as we covered when it comes to grid constraints, when it comes to potential regulatory challenges in Brazil, the conclusion was that we would lift the return requirements somewhat. And thus that leads to the impairment of roughly 400 million, which we booked in the second quarter.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Christian. In alumina prices are declining for Q3 and you're guiding for higher bauxite cost. Do you expect to avoid a loss making quarter at the current price cost spread?

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

I mean, you have to look at the full guiding for the quarter, but I don't think that the realized alumina prices is very different for Q2 versus Q3 if you use the current spot price as an estimate for the full quarter. So this box side price increase is more a temporary situation due to maintenance at the Paraguay Minas.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have another question from Yanis. On extrusions, you have guided to a positive metal effect of two to 300 milli NOC. Is this driven by the difference between billet and standard ingot premium?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So this is really driven by the development that we see in the Midwest premium in the US. If you then carry a lower priced inventory when tariffs was 25%, tariffs goes up to 50%, you see an increase in standard income premiums. which again lifts the value of the inventory that you carry, which will be realized back to the two to three hundred million that Trude Olav mentioned. So assuming that the Billet premiums or Standard Ingrid premiums, Midwest premiums stays where they are, that's what we will realize in the third quarter.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Marina. Your revenue from greener products has increased by 50% year over year. Can you give us some more color and how volumes and premiums have developed?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So we see a positive developments on both sides of that equation. So both from a volume perspective, we continue to see growth year to date in 2025 compared to year to date same period 2024. And we also continue to see somewhat positive development on premiums per ton. So again, good development in the market. And I would like to sort of say once more, you know, the fact that we've now sold our first call contract to an OEM in the US is also a sign that the US is following the European market. Although trailing a couple of years, we still see more positive developments in the US for low carbon materials.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have another question from Ephraim. Can you isolate the impact of the higher Midwest premium alone at spot prices on your business?

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

Oh, I think the biggest effect we will see in the next quarter is this metal effect we talked about. If you look at our business in the US, it's mostly a pass-through effect of the Midwest premium. So, you know, we are buying metal scrap and we are buying standard ingot, typically correlated with the Midwest premium. And then we are using that metal and producing the products we sell to the customers. So it's mainly a pass-through. Where you could get some positive gains is that if scrap prices do not follow Midwest completely, then we can have a slightly positive additional margin in Hydro. But the main effect is that it's a pass through the company.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then there seems to be no more questions, but just giving it a couple of seconds I have one hello here, so it might come come an additional question there, we have it oh sorry. So, can you from bank, can you explain the reason behind the increase in hedging price for 2026 for aluminum metal to $2,750 per ton from $2,600 per ton.

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

So, you know, this comes from the strategic hedging program and we do this typically hedging roughly 25% of the volumes quarterly two years ahead. So the volumes for 2026 is basically hedged one year later than the 2025 volumes and that explains then the price differences.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Andreas. What was the metal effect in extrusions in Q2? Will it be fully taken out after Q3?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So in the second quarter there was a marginal metal effect in extrusions in North America. Most of the metal effect we expect will come in in Q3, again assuming that the Midwest premium stays at the level where it is today.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then another question from Janice on extrusions. There is a significant revision of North America outlook for 2025 from plus 3% to minus 2%. Can you provide some color on which end markets drive this revision? And by how much can you outperform the market?

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

So when it comes to the revision down, it's really driven by the reduced economic outlook for second half in the US. And where we do see lower demand and continued drop in demand is in the transportation segment and also the automotive segment. For the other segments, we actually saw some growth in the last quarter, so mostly should be explained by automotive and transportation. We do not really guide on how much we outperform, but at least the starting point is what we saw in Q2 compared to the overall market decline where we had a growth of 1%.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then bang is revisiting the hedging question from earlier in the Q1 presentation to head the hedging price for 2026 was 2600 in the deck today it is to 750 what explains the change.

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, then, then we can come back on this bank done and see if there's something missing in the presentation.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then we have a question from Amos. Are you seeing an impact on scrap availability in Europe from higher US tariffs?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

So we continue to see a tight scrap market in Europe, both in terms of what goes to Southeast Asia, but also certain volumes going to the US. The third element of that is, of course, the relatively low economic activity in Europe, which leads to less scrap generation. So we do continue to see elevated scrap prices, if you like, compared to history, and a very tight market.

speaker
Trond Olav Kristoffersen
Chief Financial Officer

If I just may add one comment to Bengt's earlier question. So just a reminder when it comes to our hedging program. So what we actually do in the hedging program is that we lock in margins in Norwegian kroner for a significant share of the volume. So we actually hedge LME prices in NOK, some volumes in Euro and some in US dollar. So you will see fluctuations in these numbers depending on the currency development. So at least part of that change you are seeing from Q1 to Q2 is really driven by the stronger NOC versus the US dollar. But we will look further into and come back to you.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then Liam has a follow up question on Scrap. Any latest thoughts on European policy on Scrap?

speaker
Eivind Kallevik
President and CEO

Thanks, Liam. So this is still being discussed, and it's being discussed within several of the GGs in Europe, and they are looking at it. Obviously, they have not made any decisions yet, but it is, if not top on their agenda in Brussels, it's certainly something that they are looking at continuously.

speaker
Martina
Moderator, Investor Relations

And then there seems to be no more questions, and so I think we will round it off Thank you so much for joining us today, and please reach out to us in the investor relations, if you have any further questions I wish you all a very nice day, thank you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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