Neste Oyj Unsp/Adr

Welcome to discuss Neste's Q3 results that were published this morning. My name is Anssi Tammelehto. I'm SVP for Strategy, M&A and Investor Relations at Neste. Here with me, we have our President and CEO, Heikki Malinen, and our CFO, Eeva Sipilä. We are referring to the presentation that was launched into our website early this morning. And the key highlights of the presentation include, for example, our Q3 financial performance and the status of our financial targets, including the performance improvement program and leverage. And they are actually progressing well. We are also talking about key regulatory developments and also key opportunities and uncertainties in the market. We are also having time for discussion with you all, and that's of course last but not least. And as always, please pay attention to the disclaimer as we will be making forward-looking statements in this call. With these remarks, I would like to hand over to our president and CEO, Heik. Heik, please.

Thank you very much, and good evening to you folks in Asia, and good morning to you in the U.S. Welcome to Neste's webcast. Nice to see you here again. Q3, in brief, let me just state that it's actually now one year and two weeks, roughly, that I've been working for Neste in this role as CEO. It's been a very busy one year. I wanted to just take a few minutes and just reflect on this past year. Obviously, I've had a chance to travel globally, widely, the company, meet our customers, our suppliers. understand the business, see how our refineries are performing. I think, you know, overall, really, the longer I work here and the more I understand the company, I've come to the conclusion that Neste really is a rough diamond. We have a lot of potential to develop the company further. We have a great group of people here, and as I talk to the Neste folks, I really feel that there's good momentum inside the company and a strong commitment by our staff globally to move this company further. So maybe that's sort of more as a context. We will be discussing Q3 results here today. For me personally, I'm actually pleased with the results. We're obviously not at the level of overall performance we want to be, but the direction of travel into Q3 is good. And if I look at what we have accomplished here, our refineries have been performing well. I'll talk about safety in a moment. Sales have picked up. There's even some positive, actually good momentum in the market. And our performance improvement program is... on schedule, maybe even a bit ahead of schedule. So these are also positive things that we're adding them up all together. And even our fossil traditional Porvo oil products business did well. So it's a good basis to move into them 26. But let's take a look at first safety, because safety really is the fundament of everything that we do. It's a license to operate. Unless we take good care of safety, we have no right to be making these products. On the left-hand side, you can see the data for our people safety, the total recordable incident frequency rate. It is heading gradually down. These numbers, just a reminder, since 2023, they include Mahoney, which is a Yuko collection business in the United States, which is a very different type of activity. But in any case, we need to bring this number down much more. And the team here has very clear plans on how to do that. On the right-hand side, you can see our process safety figures for this year. So far, 2025 has actually gone, if I can say, quite well. Of course, the trend has really fallen. We've had a number of months where we actually had no major incidences in the company on the process side. It's too early to say how much of a trend this is. But anyway, the direction of travel is good. And the discussion, at least in Neste, about process safety is continuous. And we have now in Q3 launched The five-year roadmap journey to further improve our process safety and our ambition is to significantly bring that down even more. But as always, these take time and it doesn't happen overnight. But anyway, we are systematically moving forward. We have some major initiatives underway. You will hear more from Eva about the performance improvement program. I just want to say it's on track. You'll see the curves in a moment. Maybe we're slightly ahead of schedule. But even having said that, you know, What's interesting and important to understand is the direction of travel towards the 350. I think we can confirm that. And then the more we do work around this program, the more evident it becomes that there is, as I said, there are opportunities within the company to perform even better. And that, for me as CEO, is, of course, a very important piece of information. We have been driving down our costs, fixed costs, variable costs. and the refinery performance is rising. In the middle you see then the Rotterdam Capacity Project. It is a significant undertaking. At the moment, having just recently visited the site, and I'm again going in some weeks' time back to Rotterdam, it is very busy. We have approximately 2,300 people from many, many different countries and nationalities working on the site, and the work continues. But it's a big undertaking, and what I want to say separately is that we've also had very good performance on safety. With all the folks on the site, it's very critical that we don't have any accidents, and the team has done a really good job in working towards that goal every single day. And then on the right-hand side, operational achievements. Actually, I think there are many, but we wanted to just highlight maybe two. One was that on soft side, we had record high soft sales volume. We are clearly, you know, the market is picking up. even though the mandates are still somewhat, you know, clearly below our hope in Europe, 2% vis-a-vis 6%. And then, as you can see, the market has become stronger and has been successfully able to leverage the tailwind I want to highlight a couple of numbers from the third quarter, over a million tons of renewable products sales volume, of which SAF was about 244 produced tons. So year to date, we have produced about 741 tons of SAF. So the journey has clearly started. Our comparable sales margin in RP rose clearly to almost $500 per ton. What was also very positive and helped our result was that the total refining margin for all products exceeded 15 bucks per barrel, and that of course then helped the results. EBITDA 531 heading in the right direction. Cash, I'll let Eva talk about cash in a moment, but of course that's something we monitor very carefully as we do when it comes to the 40% leverage. you know, a ceiling, if I want to use that word. My final slide here before I hand it over to Eva, and then I'll come back later, is about the Performance Improvement Program For me, this is more than just a performance program. It is very much a journey that will ultimately then move us into what I've called inside the company a journey of continuous improvement, continuous development. While we're doing this program, we're also building more systematic methods on performance management. We've reviewed all of our KPIs and we continue to do that because, of course, you get what you measure. We have very systematic cadence on performance reviews. This whole approach, we've really pushed that forward harder and we will continue to do that, bring it down deeper and deeper into the organization. So I see this is an important part of moving forward with this program. We also track our various activities in this program very carefully. I personally participate in biweekly reviews of all the initiatives that we approve before they even get included in these calculations. So I think I have a good understanding of where the program is going, and I'm happy to say that I really like what I see. I really like what I'm seeing in the teams. So good work and big thanks to the team nest on this one. So we are heading well towards 350. And so far, 229 annualized run rate improvement by the end of Q3. With those words, I give it over to Eva. So, Eva, please take it from here.

Thank you, Heikki, and good afternoon to everyone on my behalf as well. I'll start with the familiar reference margin of renewable diesel, and just as a reminder, so please do note this is a gross margin, so it deducts only the feedstock cost, and is hence different from the sales margin we'll discuss later on. But indeed, I think this trend line shows very well the strength and recovery we've seen in the European markets in the quarter. Then, just to break down by segment, 531 million euros of comparable EBITDA, so 266 million coming from renewable products, 232 million from oil products, and then 34 million from marketing and services. And I'll maybe comment the segments a bit more in detail very shortly. As Heikki already said, the performance improvement program is obviously an important part of our 531 million result. We're very pleased with the run rate of 229 million achieved at the end of Q3. And then this gives a year-to-date impact in our figures of 84 million euros. Now, a few points on the 229 million. So if we break it into cost reduction versus more margin volume optimization, it's a roughly 80-20 split. And maybe also good to remind you that there is an element of lease costs here, especially on the logistics side, which then are actually not visible in the EBITDA rather in decreased depreciation as we have fewer leases. So roughly a bit more than 10% of the 229 is related to that. Overall, the bigger categories are really around logistics, transportation in all forms of fashion, the optimization there, and the lower discretionary spend across everything we do. Moving then to the business segment commentary. So renewable products. We're very pleased with the reliability of the operations. We almost reached a similar sales volume, as you see from the left-hand side pillars, as we did in Q2. And then the sales margin continued to tick up. If we move to the right hand side and look at the sort of comparison between our Q3 results versus Q2, you see that the big change really comes from the sales margin area. And naturally, the diesel price has supported, has had a positive impact on our margins to actually both of the two segments and also OP, but important here as well. We continue to see some headwind in the feedstock cost. But then we also had a more one-off positive, which comes from the SAF BTC, so the now expired tax credit program in the U.S., which was in place for SAF until September. And we actually booked the full 27 million benefit of those credits in Q3. And that is maybe worthwhile noting. On the CFPC side, the continuing tax credit system, we continued on a similar path as in Q2, so booking 27 million euros in there as well. Then moving into the oil product side. So here diesel crack clearly contributed much better market environment than in Q2, but also we had a better raw material or crude feed cost level in our Q3 and that supported the $15 per barrel margin as well. Overall, as Heikki already mentioned, so we're pleased with the good utilization rate, very stable utilization across the quarters, as you see well from the left-hand side. And then really on the right-hand side, maybe an additional point to note is indeed the the utilization of 91 and also some fixed cost improvement in the figures. Finally, on marketing services, we had a good season, the Q2 driving season, supporting the results, but the team continues. It's very good and diligent work on the fixed cost side and supporting the results. Moving then to cash flow and profitability. The capex continues under very tight control. We have upgraded now our annual guidance to a level that we expect the capex this year to be around 1 billion euros, so slightly down from the earlier range. And this is really thanks to a lot of good discipline across the segments. Now, we knew going into Q3 that we'll have a tougher quarter when it comes to cash flow due to the upcoming maintenance or now already started maintenance, ongoing maintenance, should I say, in Rotterdam and upcoming maintenance in Singapore, which meant that we had to build inventories during Q3 to be able to serve our customers during the Q4. period and that obviously had some headwind on our working capital. But I'm very happy that the total outcome was minus 50 million euros for the quarter because this is also the year-to-date number and this obviously gives us confidence that we can deliver positive cash flow for the full year. as we work to deliver those built-up inventories to our customers in the coming months. So as I said, slight headwind on the cash flow, visible also in the leverage, but we're well below our 40% target and happy with that performance. So with that, I think, Heikki, it's back to you.

Hey, thank you. Thank you, Eva. So a few words about, you know, topical matters and then the outlook. So as always, we need to discuss briefly what's happening on regulation. I think overall our view is that the recent news and decisions are supporting the long-term renewables demand outlook. Whether you can say it's enough to say there's a long-term secular growth, not completely sure, but at least momentum is building. Here in Europe, what's, of course, extremely important are the decisions related to implementation of Red 3. And the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, France, all moving forward, awaiting eagerly to see what happens with Germany. The preliminary information was that they are looking to increase the volumes potentially quite substantially. but still waiting for that decision, hopefully by the end of the fourth quarter. We will know then which way the direction is in Germany, and then, of course, will the implementation start in 26 or 27. But anyway, it seems to be heading in the right direction, but still need to be patient here some weeks. On aviation, nothing really major to say other than that maybe in Asia, South Korea, Singapore, of course, Japan has announced soft mandates, and then Indonesia is also looking at it. So gradually also those countries which have been maybe less advanced in moving forward with these mandates are starting to consider them and discuss them. So that's also a positive when it comes to soft sales. On the U.S. side, the summer was very busy with the big, beautiful bill. A lot of major decisions were made. Now with the U.S. government in shutdown, we're waiting to see how the implementation then progresses. But as I said at the end of Q2, I think if I look at all of these regulatory changes in the U.S., I think for Nesta, it's still sort of net positive. Some things are clearly positive, some are negative, but overall net, net. more on the positive side. And I think that's that's the main news on on regulation. And I said waiting then for Germany and, you know, their their decisions, the market. Let's see the hold on. Let me just get here. Yeah. So in terms of opportunities and uncertainties, we'll already discussed the German part. On the feedstock side, I think what's worth mentioning is that with the various changes in tariffs, we've now started to see some clear decline in animal prices, animal fat prices, particularly in Asia, Australia. So that is sort of... impacting that's a potential bit of a tailwind for our business however one needs to always remember that some countries accept animal fats in their bio in their renewable fuels and others don't so we always need to match the the feed feed stocks with the actual market requirements but we're very good at that On the crude oil slate, we, of course, use a lot of crude oil in Porvo refinery. As part of the performance improvement program, we really started to work systematically and try to see how can we diversify the crude oil slate even further. And we've done that. in an accelerated fashion, a lot of research here on the various technical limits by crudotype and have actually been able to identify ways how can we modify them and also then expand the number of crude oil options we have at our disposal. So I'm very pleased with the results. There are actually quite a number of options we have to expand the crude oil supply. And that, of course, gives us then, you know, hopefully some options to negotiate, you know, more favorable arrangements for the company. We already talked about the performance improvement program and the potential even more beyond. On the uncertainties, regulatory matters, of course, still uncertain. Geopolitics is still around. The whole question about what will happen to Russian refineries, Russian oil, global oil markets. I think the forecast, the variance between the forecast is very broad So it's very difficult to make any accurate predictions about that. And maybe the last thing I want to mention briefly is China, China exports. So in the last weeks, we have seen news that China is considering, you know, permitting the exporter SAF out of their country and remains now then to be seen how much and into what markets that Chinese SAF ultimately goes. So we are keeping a close eye on that as well as we head into 2026. The market outlook, pretty much as we have communicated, I would say, earlier. And when it comes to the guidance, that guidance is also unchanged. So I wanted to accelerate here to make sure we have plenty of time for Q&A. So maybe with those words, I hand it over to the operator. Thank you very much.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Alejandro Vigil Garcia from Santander. Please go ahead.

Hello, thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for the results. The first question is about the flow of products, export, import in the renewable products division. Because as you mentioned before, we could see China exporting stuff. And I'm also interested in your thoughts about the different regions, the U.S., Europe, and an ancient test of capacity and balance of export imports. And the second question is about what you mentioned about Germany, which is the potential volume upside coming from this Red Tree implementation in Germany. Thank you.

Thank you very much. So thank you, Alejandro, for the questions. Yeah, of course, the thing with these products, once you put them on a vessel, you can ship them in many directions. I think maybe the three things as far as Neste is concerned, so as we already discussed in the spring, so our exports from Singapore to the US have been pretty much constrained. Nothing really has changed there. So as the incentives have gone away, so also our exports have been significantly diminished. That is the case still today, and unless the regulation changes, that will probably be the case also for the near mid-term exports. Then, where is that volume going? Volume has been coming to Europe. The European market has been able to absorb the Singapore refinery volume, and we've had actually reasonably good sales here in this market. Regarding China, it is not easy to get a good sense for what's actually happening there. So, of course, we have to also rely on different sources here. But my sense still is that Of course, they have domestic yuko, quite substantial amounts of that. We've seen that yuko prices in that region have not declined as much as one would have expected. So someone is buying that and producing. And now we will then have to wait and see how much tonnage actually comes out of China and where does it ultimately land. So I think that we will probably be able to report more in Q4 result once we see that. situation evolving uh regarding germany yes this is a very exciting news i mean the the numbers in terms of incremental demand have ranged anywhere from you know one to two million tons so so i mean whether it's on the low end or on the high end i mean it's still positive and hopefully the other european countries you know will then you know follow but germany of course is the biggest market and and that's why it is so critical that you know that decision would be you know positive

hopefully we're hopeful okay thank you the next question comes from derek whitfield from texas capital please go ahead good afternoon all and congrats on your results for the quarter i have two questions for you uh first regarding the short-term market tightness you're referencing on slide 10 Could you elaborate on this dynamic as we're generally seeing the drivers as being more secular versus short-term in nature? And then second, if you could, elaborate on the trends you're seeing across the global waste feedstock markets. While you're referencing higher feedstock costs on slide 13, tallow and yuko spreads appear to be a bit more favorable for you for the quarter and seemingly have the potential to remain favorable as U.S. regulatory and tariff policy have taken U.S. producers out of the market.

Derek, good morning to you. You're an early riser, I guess. So thanks for joining the call very early in the morning. Yes, it's a very big question, you know, the short-term demand versus secular demand. I mean, ultimately, the whole matter of having, you know, moving to clean fuels, especially in SAF, I mean, there's no option. So, I mean, logically, you would say that's really the direction of travel. For us, of course, at Neste, and that's more of a supply issue, it is a fact that we are moving forward with Rotterdam. you know, second line construction, the more I look at it, the more convinced I am that even though it's a quite formidable task, it is still the right thing to do. And if everything goes well, you know, we should be well positioned as we head into the latter part of this decade. If this RED3 implementation goes in a positive way, you know, that, of course, will then give quite a substantial boost in diesel. And don't forget, Neste has the ability to move its capacity fairly flexibly from SAF to RD. And we will take advantage of that flexibility, depending on how the market ebbs and flows. Regarding feedstocks, Yeah, I have to say that it is clear that regulatory decisions on your side of the continent have impacted that some of the buyers seem to have disappeared or at least reduced their procurement from Europe and from Asia. So hopefully that will ultimately bring some price levels down. But I would say so far it's been more of an Asian phenomenon. and maybe Australian phenomenon, the annual fats. Yuko prices, of course, have, as I said earlier, have been holding fairly well. And then I would say in the US, we saw this movement up in feedstock prices, but maybe the uncertainty around the implementation of these regulatory decisions is maybe taking a bit, you know, the air out. But let's see once the decisions are clear, you know, whether there's another, you know, momentum move upward. So Nesta is one of the largest buyers of these feedstock, if not the largest buyer. And I think we have a good global setup. We have a good team. We're able to optimize that constantly. We can also trade, you know, internally inside the system, but also trade third party if we want. So I think we're well positioned for that. I think that's about all the key things I can share with you now. Thank you, Derek.

The next question comes from Henry Patrico from UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes, hello everyone, thank you for the presentation. Two questions please, both on the renewable products margin. The first one, I wanted to check if you can give us some indications as we think about the fourth quarter margins, to what extent you're able to capture what seem to be very good spot margins in Europe, or are you quite constrained because of the maintenance? And then I wanted to also check on SAF. We've seen quite an increase in SAF prices. Are you able to give us some color on your margins on that side of the business? Have you seen as well an improvement in the SAF margins in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter as demand seems to have picked up? Thank you.

Thanks, Henri. I would say that we were somewhat constrained in the Q3 as well on taking advantage of really the spot market prices. I think they were relatively high, but obviously we're very pleased that we were able to utilize even smaller pockets to end up to the 480 that we did. Now, going into Q4, so I think the big... big impact you need to take into consideration is really the maintenance ongoing in Rotterdam and coming up in Singapore. And if you look at sort of a year back when we had similar maintenance, be it in Q3, Q4, it is roughly $100 per ton impact. So don't forget that. Otherwise, obviously, we are very much now selling what we have produced to inventory. If all goes well, we will push, we will hope to be sort of ramping up well and having a bit more still volume to push out really to take into account take the benefits of the current market. Obviously, we are focused on that, but I think we have sort of more limiting factors. And then, obviously, please do remember that now in Q3, we had the BTC one-off that will not reappear in Q4 as that sort of legislation has now ceased or expired. What comes then to soft prices, I think indeed the market turned out to be a bit better than it looked during the summertime when there was a period where one had to consider that whether it makes sense to produce stuff or just focus on renewable diesel, the end outcome was better. I think maybe partly also due to just sort of a bit of lack of product and very, very low exports into the European market. And that helped strengthen the market. And then we obviously took advantage. And like Heikki said, so we are very flexible between the renewable diesel and SAF and we'll continue to sort of focus on that flexibility really to be to Q4 or 26 for that matter.

Thank you. The next question comes from Matthew Blair from TPH. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Could you provide an update on your Martinez refinery? Is this plant EBITDA positive, or are you actually seeing any export opportunities out of California into more attractive markets? And any sort of commentary on the feedstock slate? It looks like... Veg oils might be a little bit more attractive at certain points during the quarter than some of the low CI feeds. And then on the oil product side, could you expand a little bit more on the opportunities on the crude slate? It sounds like you're able to implement a little bit more flexibility. Do you have any examples of crudes that you've been switching to and switching away from? Thank you.

Thank you, Matthew. So if I take a stab and then Eva can continue. So, obviously, Abartiness is important. Don't forget, we have a joint venture. Marathon is the operating partner, and we, of course, are actively contributing, but they are the operating partners, so they run the operations day to day. I think, overall, the refinery is now, you know, has been running, you know, quite well. I would call it, from this angle, that, you know, we've come out of the project phase, and we're now moving into the more continuous operating phase. and having just some time ago visited Martinez, so I really feel that they have a really good team on location in California running this. But still, it's early days in this journey of making these renewable fuels, even for that team. On the export opportunities, I think, you know, I think it's a general comment that with all the different regimes globally, the cost of feedstocks, I don't sort of at least at the moment, I think it's very much focusing on domestic sales. That is kind of where the opportunity lies, at least in the short, medium term. On the feedstock side, I think it's been quite volatile recently. Both of the partners supply feedstocks and then of course the refinery can buy wherever they want. So I can't comment on what the actual substance of the feedstock mix is due to the structure of the joint venture. On the oil product side, yes, the crude slate is really interesting because, of course, we buy a lot of it. We have, you know, our primary source is the North Sea, has been, and we know we've had a good relationship getting feedstocks out of there, but, I'm sorry, crude out of there. But, of course, in the spirit of trying to make more money and improve our performance, you know, we have to look at options. And the only thing I can say is over the last three quarters, our engineers and chemists in Porto have really looked at a very, very broad set of options. And out of that, they're now narrowed down to three. let's say a shorter list, but there are some very interesting things and we're testing them, you know, in production level mode to see, you know, how they perform. But anyway, the the options are evident and we will continue the work. I think we'll be able to report more as we head into 2026. But I'm very pleased with the work they've done on this crude side.

The next question comes from Peter Lowe from Rothschild.

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. The first was just on perhaps your term contract negotiations for 2026. I think those usually take place around this time of year. Can you comment at all on how those negotiations are progressing and whether the current tightness in the spot market confers on you a degree of pricing power? And then the second question was on the outstanding PTC, which you recognized as a contingent asset in the first quarter, but I don't think you booked in the underlying results. I think that was 30 to 40 million euros you said at the time. Can you give us any update on when you expect you might be able to formally recognize that?

Thanks, Peter. Thanks for your two questions. If I take the first one, and then Eva will take the second. Yes, this is indeed the time of the year when it is term contract time, so to speak. I think last year we said that for 2025, I think we said about two-thirds of the volume had been termed. Yeah, Rob, two-thirds. I think, of course, the markets change quite a lot. We also have the soft market is now active with the mandates. What I would like to say here is that, you know, we will always term some volume, but I think at the moment we're a little bit, you know, monitoring the situation. We're in no rush to make any decisions here. Let's see how the weeks now move forward. We will term some, but I will then report to you probably in Q4, you know, how these things ended. But at the moment, we're in no rush.

And regarding, Peter, the Q1 CFPC credits, so we're working on a deal to monetize all of the 25 credits and targeting to be successful during the fourth quarter, and that would then probably be the trigger for us to recognize the Q1 as well.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Adnan Dhanani from RBC. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Two for me, please. First, as it relates to your operated production facilities, utilization rates have been around the 80% mark in recent quarters. How do you see that evolving in the coming quarters, and are there any hurdles there to materially increasing it beyond that 80%? And then secondly, on the opportunity you mentioned from the lower animal fats prices, can you just provide some color on the current split you have in European refineries between Yukon animal fats and where that could go to take advantage of that opportunity? Thank you.

So the first one, utilization, I think 80% has been sort of a good number for modeling. We do not agree.

Yeah, I would say, Adnan, that whilst of course it's not necessarily an indication that we're satisfied with the 80%, but just realistically thinking of where we are, I would use that as the number also going forward into 26. Now, we have identified quite some bottlenecks in our processes which we are working on to improve the number. but some of them are also tied to maintenance and capex, and hence the sort of progress will not be sort of massive in going into 26. So that's a good number for you to use.

I would agree, and I think Neste has, in my view, if I look at the last decade, Neste actually has quite a good history in de-bottlenecking these lines. Both Singapore Line 1 and Rotterdam Line 1, both have been able to get beyond the nameplate capacity. So we are constantly working. I mean, under the Performance Improvement Program, we're very systematically turning every corner in those refineries to see how can we get more tonnage. But as Eva said, a number of these things, they require some investments, not massive, but some money. And some of these investments you can only do when you have a bigger turnaround. So that really creates the delay. I'm actually very pleased also with the work the engineers are doing. Then on the animal fat, the blending, I don't want to go into the detail of the blends. It is a bit sensitive. Obviously, Yuko plays a big role as does animal fat. What I can say to you though is that Neste has invested a lot in pre-treatment technology. We have heat treatment, we have pre-treatment technologies. We're able to clean up a lot of the bad stuff, if I may use that term, from the feed. So it doesn't go into the refinery. And constantly we're trying to optimize you know, within the technical limits to get as much of the, you know, cheap stuff or cheaper stuff in there as we can. But I want to still mention that in some European countries, for example, animal fats are not really allowed, and that does to some degree restrict, you know, the potential. But I'm pleased anyway with the direction of travel on animal fat prices. That is a good thing. Great.

Thanks for the call.

The next question comes from Artem Beletsky from SEB. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. So I would like to ask two relating to European regulation, and the first one is relating to RAID 3 implementation. So you have been discussing about Germany and the impact – on the demand for next year. But maybe could you talk about some other markets which are also doing red-thread transposition and increasing targets in 2026? What are interesting opportunities you see there? And the second question is relating to some discussions out there, what comes to product certification and some actions or plans to make more strict approach in some markets like Germany or Netherlands.

how much is this actually visible what comes to your customers behavior and maybe what comes to preferring you as a supplier on european market thank you so thank you very much of course for us what's very important is what happens here in the nordics both finland and sweden very sweden very critical remember sweden actually dropped dropped the the mandate quite a lot here some years ago we believe we're going to see gradual movement of the percentages as we head into 27 and 28 and even towards 30 so it's gradual because of course people are worried about inflation and and and so forth um But I think that's all positive. In Central Europe, of course, Germany is just a very big thing. Other markets we are looking closely at is Italy is interesting, the Netherlands, and then small markets like Portugal, but they're volume-wise, Portugal, Spain, small. But I would say Italy, Germany, Netherlands, and then Nordics are critical. And I think overall direction at the moment looks positive. On product certification, this is a really critical thing because this is, of course, a trust-based system. The value of the certificates, the biocredits, fundamentally related to the fact that the feedstock you procure and use is really the stuff it's supposed to be and that you have very good tracking. Neste spends a lot of time and money to make sure that we track with our business partners the sources and that we are using the right feedstocks. I can't comment on other industry players, only to say that I do think that at least the savvy customers are aware of the importance of this, and they recognize that Neste is a reliable partner. I think that's all I would say, and I think the German legislation, if it goes forward, will further heighten the importance that the feedstock needs to be the right kind and from a reliable source. or acceptable source, if I use that word. So that would be good for us as well.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Nashqui from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Two questions from me, please. The first one is on the Q4 margin impact, I think. you provided a very helpful comment earlier talking about $100 per ton impact from similar maintenance previously. But we are having two major maintenance this quarter, including Singapore, for half of December, I think. So I wonder, could we see more impact over there? Because there are two plants off in Q4. Then my next question is on inventory. So I wonder if you have built enough inventory to sustain a round resale about 1 to 1.1 million tons in Q4. Thank you.

Sure. Thanks, Nash. So you're right to highlight that there is indeed two breaks, but obviously the Rotterdam is decisible because it's full for the quarter and it's really the start of the Singapore shutdown that impacts. impacts this quarter, a bigger bulk actually goes into Q1. So I think the reference is not sort of... is a pretty good one. Of course, it depends on also how the maintenance breaks go. A part of this industry is such that when you stop and you open certain things, you sometimes do have surprises. So obviously the syndication is assuming that we don't have big surprises and more importantly that we have a very organized and speedy ramp up in Rotterdam. So it is not meant to be sort of exact guidance, but I just thought it's helpful because indeed the magnitude is such that If you ignore it, your models will probably lead you to a too high a number. Then what comes to the inventory, I think we are well provided with what we produced into inventory to serve our customers as per our customer promises. It's more than a question of really on our ramp up time in in Rotterdam that the faster we are we may have some some excess to to sell in the quarter and and if we then have any issues we we might miss that opportunity to really tap on the on the spot market successful color I just wonder

If we put margin aside, is there any color you can give on the absolute cost side of things on the tool maintenance? Can you say on EBITDA, what is the absolute cost?

Well, we haven't really given such numbers. Per ton is what I think gives you a helpful indication of the impact in the quarter.

Understand. Thank you.

The next question comes from Alice Winograd from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. Two questions for me, please. First, looking to 2026, what do you think are the key building blocks of supply growth and demand growth for HVO? For instance, you mentioned Germany adding some one or two million tons in demand. And what else is on your radar that you can maybe quantify from a fundamental perspective? And the second question is on effects. I believe you printed 109. of effects this quarter, and when do you expect to see the current spot rates to fully show in the P&L? Because there's quite a gap there. Thank you.

Do you want to take the effects first?

Yeah, sure. So, indeed, the bigger FX moves started, or the appreciation of the euro started more during the quarter, so to say. So, as we are hedged, it comes with a delay. We'll start to, now that levels have obviously kind of, I would say, stabilized at least to some extent to these current levels. So that will start coming through in the Q4. We typically don't have a super long hedging when it comes to FX, but obviously some going also into next year.

Yeah, of course, 2026, that goes into the Department of Forecasting, which has not been easy in this business. I think on a very high level, I think three things. Of course, the macro situation. Europe, as you know, has been overall quite weak here for a number of years on macro issues. some minor signs of improvement as we head into next year, but still very early to say. I think the big thing is really regulation, because that, of course, will create instant, you know, demand. And then, you know, when you look at the overall level of how the market is behaving, now looking more at the fossil diesel, because that, of course, impacts then the renewables market, you know, as well. You know, what is happening with this whole Ukraine-Russia matter issue how are these refined products being moved around, that may also have some impact. Inventory levels have been overall quite low here. As we came out of the summer, that's also been supported. So maybe that will a little bit boost as you head into the new year. But for me, really, the big thing is what's going to happen in the coming years. And I think it's very much about Red 3.

Thank you. The next question comes from Matt Lofting from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could, please. First, slide 10 in your deck shows that improvement through recent months in the gross renewable diesel margin. Sounds like you're sort of saying, at least to this point, that feedstock costs have been relatively high or stable. So I just wondered if you could disaggregate roughly how much of the improvement in the gross margin you think is indexed to the strength in fossil fuel diesel markets versus being driven by underlying improvement in the renewable fuels market. And then secondly, I noticed that you mentioned listed trade policy unpredictability in your list of uncertainties. To this point in the year, what have you seen from that perspective in terms of any impact on the business and the market? Just wondering how much of a let's say, base case versus the tail risk you see there. Thank you.

Do you want to do the feedstock and I'll come to trade?

Yeah. Was, Matt, your question on the unpredictability really around the feedstock? Did I get it right?

Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. So, well, I think considering how volatile the feedstock market has been this year, I think it's prudent to sort of assume that there's some unpredictability into that. Now, of course, as the year draws to a close, what we have Now, either at the production facilities or close by, obviously, it starts to be more predictable. But it's really these sort of trade barriers that have now been a sort of big area of causing this sort of unpredictability. And I think now the animal fat, where the price has decreased, which is in our favor, is a prime example because it really comes mainly from the fact that we see less U.S. buying and less buyers hence around, whereas then the Yuko has been moving a lot less because actually the sort of Chinese market buyers have been picking up if there was anything sort of left unpicked from US. But as we've all seen these trade topics change on a daily basis, they're dynamic to say the least. many things can happen. And then, of course, when it comes to our inventory valuations and those type of things, then it matters what the prices are at the year end. And hence, we want to highlight that as a real uncertainty. But I don't think I can really provide any more clarity, unfortunately, on the topic.

Maybe it's your question about trade policy. I mean, of course, there's a lot of stuff, but if I raise two uncertainties, one is regarding the U.S. importation of foreign feedstocks and the RIN 50. Obviously, I think not all industry participants are necessarily of the view that that is, you know, the right thing. So the debate, I think, we don't have visibility on the debate. How will that ultimately then end? Will it go forward as... proposed or will it change? But as I said, my understanding is there are different views on what is the right way forward. So we'll just have to see. And then I think from the European standpoint, we of course, as I referred to the Chinese stuff, The European Commission at the moment is monitoring the SAF situation. And then we'll have to see in 26 or 27, depending on now what happens, what will happen on, as you know, on renewable diesel, we have anti-dumping duties. But on SAF at the moment, it's monitoring is what's being done. So that would be some uncertainty that's worth understanding and noting. Thank you.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much for your time. My question was just about in preparation for Q4, you have been building inventories. I just wanted to confirm where the focus of that build was. Was it on sustainable aviation fuel or renewable diesel? And then secondly, just a question about CapEx. You've reduced your CapEx. It'd be good to get some insight into what the key drives are of that. Is it phasing or a true reduction in CapEx? And you were forecasting to a similar spend in 2026. Should we think there's any change there? Thank you very much.

Yeah, I can certainly start with the capex. So I would say that obviously when the guidance was given, it was very, very sort of quickly after Heikki started and we've done a lot of work on reviewing really the amount of capex spent that it drives and fulfills our return requirements. And hence there's been a real reduction of scope in But then what comes to the bigger bulk of the capex, obviously related to Rotterdam, that has moved and we expect that to be the bulk of next year as well. So there's really no, we're not expecting a change to the earlier view on next year. But of course, the more you work on, there's always areas of cost efficiency that can be applied and tighter procurement. And we're obviously trying to trying to sort of make sure the organization is really alert on all of those topics. But yeah, and then on the Q4 preparation, well, we obviously know our commitments and have balanced both. So there's an inventory on both RD and SAF, but of course, volume-wise, the RD is much bigger.

Maybe if I can just build on that. I remember our conversation after Q1 and after Q4 of last year was very much about, OK, so how will the SAF procurement actually take place in Europe in 2025? And this is the first year when we have the mandate and coming into this year, we really didn't know exactly, you know, is there going to be seasonality around the summer? Will there be buying later in the year or, you know, will they be buying equal amounts through the year? So it's been a bit difficult also to plan the inventory when we don't really exactly have any data on the buying behavior and the buying profile. But as we have, you know, this year's data and, you know, next year's, then we'll probably become also smarter on how do we sort of build our own inventories as the market develops. So just more as a context, you know, remembering those discussions in the spring of this year.

The next question comes from Mati Carola from OP Corporate Bank. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my question. First one regarding the performance improvement program. Could you elaborate the impact on the variable cost and how much is visible already in the sales margin you have right now? I mean, the big part is, of course, with the headcount reduction, but if you could give a color about this impact on sales margin. Then the second one is about the SAF next year. How do you see SAF market going as the Netherlands option is done and also the U.S. win-50 reduction is a little bit killing the exports from Singapore. So do you see then potential for RD more or how do you see the market?

Can we do the first one?

Yeah, I can comment, Matti, on the performance improvement. So whilst the headcount is important for regulatory reasons, obviously it comes a bit in phases that there's still people have certain tenures that we need to respect and hence not all the savings are in. So actually I would say that the biggest impact in the P&L is really around the overall procurement, spending less and spending more wisely. And that's by far the biggest. Then the logistics side is important, but part of those savings obviously land into reduced leases and hence in the depreciation row, but still significant also in the P&L.

That's your question. I'm trying to recall exactly the wording on the Dutch opt-in clause, whether that actually, I mean, that has, of course, been favorable for SAF, but now if it is going away, it could be not exactly sure of how much. Yeah, I'm not exactly sure how much of a hit that will really mean. On the U.S. side, of course, the fact that you have this equalization from the incentives regarding SAF and RD, of course, that, of course, then reduces in some ways the attractiveness, if I may use, or competitiveness coming out of Singapore. So that would be sort of a net negative, I would say.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Christopher Coupland from Bofe. Please go ahead.

Hi there, thank you for taking my questions. I've got really only ones remaining on Rotterdam. Could you tell us how much of the project CAPEX is still left to be spent? And slightly related to that, what that will do to your depreciation charts running through the RP line. I mean we're sort of at 140, 150 million euros per quarter right now. Where is that going to pan out once Rotterdam is fully ramped up into 27? Thank you.

Sure. So, Christopher, what we are expecting in Rotterdam as capex next year is around 700 million. And then now the 27 number on top of my head, it's obviously a lot lower because by that time everything will be built up. But there are some tails, 100-ish, if I remember right, in 27. So then that all kind of adds to the depreciation. Obviously, there is a relatively long depreciation time because the asset will be around for decades. So the imminent increase is, of course, visible, but based on that, we can come back to a more exact number, but that would be the number to use on top of what you're seeing today.

Okay, thank you, Eva. And just to confirm, you're not fully depreciating the asset until it's ramped up, right? So even the capex spent to date is not in your quarterly charge yet?

Correct. We have what we call sort of a comparability in use. So as it is a site in progress, so to say, asset under construction. So, yeah, that's very true.

Thank you for confirming. Thank you.

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers.

Thank you very much. Once again, it was a pleasure to spend this hour with you. Summary, I wanted to touch on four key points. As I've said, I think we're making really good progress on the performance improvement program. You see the numbers. We will continue to report on that. I actually see there is more potential, and I think that we will continue to work on this going forward. Regulatory developments, very much focused now on Germany. Let's keep our thumbs up, if I can use that word. There is positive momentum in the market. Let's see how much that holds into 26. And then on the balance sheet, which we maybe didn't have to discuss this much this time. So we are below the 40% leverage number. And that, of course, is something we've aspired to do, you know, with the help of these initiatives. So with those words, let me thank you on my behalf and wish you all well. And Americans, happy Halloween, and we will then see you again in February. Take care.