Nippon Yusen Kabushik New

Thank you very much for your patience. Thank you very much for taking your precious time to attend this session. We would now like to begin NYK group. Third quarter results for fiscal 2023. I am your MC for today. My name is Okada, general manager of IR group. Please bear with me. First of all, I would like to introduce the presenters for today. We have Representative Director, Executive President and Executive Officer, CFO, Mr. Kono. We also have Managing Executive Officer, Chief Executive of Liner and Logistics Headquarters, Mr. Banno. First, our CFO, Mr. Kono, will begin with the overview of the third quarter results for the fiscal 2023, followed by a Q&A session. I would like to explain how to raise questions later. The materials to be used for today's presentation are already posted on the homepage of the companies. Please take a look at them. Please be advised that this session, including the Q&A session, will be distributed for online distribution. Now we would like to move on to the presentation. Mr. Kono, the floor is yours. Hello, this is Kono, CFO of the company. Thank you very much for taking your precious time to attend our presentation session today. For today, I would like to begin with the overview of the financial results for the first three quarters of fiscal 2023, and then After that, we would like to provide you with the full year guidance, full year forecast for fiscal 2023. After I finish my presentation, I would like to open the floor for Q&A session. The materials to be used for today's presentation will be projected on the screen. However, you have already downloaded the material from the homepage. Please make them ready at your hand. First of all, regarding the overview of the results for the first three quarters of fiscal 2023, if you can open the table on page six, the blue column second from the right show the cumulative results through the first three quarters, including the first half results. In the first three quarters, including the first half, the cumulative revenues decreased by 260.9 billion yen year-on-year to 1,789.2 billion yen, recurring profit decreased by 805.6 billion yen to 202 billion yen, and net income dropped by 766.7 billion yen year-on-year to 153.5 billion yen. so we recorded a decrease in both revenues and profits. As for the overview, as similar to the trend in the first half of the year. In the line and logistics business, which comprises ocean network express, air cargo transportation, and liner logistics business that showed a strong performance last year, this business recorded a decrease in both revenues and profit as a result of freight rates and handling volume dropping compared to the last fiscal year due to looser supply and demand conditions. and also because of the dry marked markets underperforming the same period of last fiscal year. On page 7, you see the results by segment. Here again, the columns, the second columns from the right in blue are the results for the first three quarters. As for recurring profit of liner logistics business, which comprises liner air cargo transportation and logistics, liner trade dropped by 682.8 billion yen year on year to 45.3 billion yen. Air cargo transportation dropped by 50.9 billion yen year on year to 5.2 billion yen. And logistics was down by 29.1 billion yen year on year and came in at 21 billion yen. Each of these businesses were affected by the decline in transportation demand. In particular, in the liner trade business, O&E suffered from a sluggish cargo demand due to interest rate hikes and inflation in Europe and America, as well as the increased shipping capacity resulting from the completion of new vessels, which caused the spot rates to decline further from the first half of the year. Consequently, we recorded net losses for the third quarter, and the results came in lower compared to our previous forecast. And in air cargo transportation business, in addition to the reduction in cargo shipment, because of the increased supply of space due to resumption of international passenger flights, we recorded a year-on-year decrease in unit freight level. However, in the third quarter, because of the steady demand for e-commerce-related cargo for North America, the revenue for the third quarter came in higher than our previous forecast. In logistics business, air and ocean cargo recorded a significant decline in revenue year on year because the market fell due to weak cargo volumes. However, contract logistics business was steady, supported by the strong cargo traffic in the e-commerce and automotive industries. Consequently, liner and logistics business overall recorded a recurring profit of 71.7 billion yen, which was down 762.9 billion yen year on year. In bulk shipping, Recurring profit decreased by 35.7 billion yen year on year to 137.4 billion yen, of which dry bulk business has seen a recovery in the Cape size market towards the end of the year. However, Panamax size underperformed the same period of last fiscal year when the market was very strong. On the other hand, in automotives, brisk transportation demand continued since the second half of last year. In addition, because of the congestion of ports and the limitation of ships passing the Panama Canal, the supply-demand situation remained tight. In energy business, LNG and ocean business were favorable with the support of long-term contracts. In fact, the VLCC market improved as this was the peak season, and VLGC also recorded further increase in revenues due to favorable market conditions making positive contribution to overall revenues. If you could go back to page 3, here again, overall recurring profit was 202 billion yen, down 805.6 billion yen. After adjusting for the extraordinary losses and taxes, net income came in at 153.5 billion yen, down 766.7 billion yen year-on-year. the acquisition of treasury shares, which recommenced on August 4th, we have completed a repurchase of 36,950,100 shares as of January 31st, at a total cost of approximately 142 billion. Next, on page eight, as you can see on the table on the left, The 805 billion yen year-on-year decrease in recurring profit was mainly due to the drop of the liner market and the decline of the freight rate and handling volume in the air cargo transportation business, which negatively affected the overall liner and logistics business. So that was a key factor. So that was the overview of the first three quarters of fiscal 2023.

Next, I'd like to explain about full year forecast for 2023 fiscal year. Please look at the page nine. Compared to the previous forecast at the first half results announcement in November, the revenue forecast of the full year basis was up 60 billion yen at 2,340 billion yen. The recurring profit is up by 10 billion yen at 245 billion yen. And as to the net income, the timing of NCA share transfer and transition of overseas terminals, or NE, have been changed. And because of that, net income has been revised down by 20 billion to 200 billion yen. As I'm going to touch upon later when I talk about segments, against the previous forecast, liner and logistics was revised up by 6.5 billion yen, And for the bulk shipping, it was revised up by 5 billion yen, and these are recurring profits. And this is because of the robust automotive and VLCC and VLGC markets. On page 12, we have profits, forex, bunker oil prices. The assumptions for these numbers, please look at them as well. Based on these numbers, dividend payout ratio is as follows. eyeing the payout ratio of about 30%. The year end dividend remains unchanged at 70 yen. Combined with interim dividend of 60 yen, the annual dividend payout per share will be 130 yen. And as I touched upon when I talked about third quarter of the results, we are currently buying back our shares. The 130 yen per share forecast, as well as 142 billion yen, the shares already bought as of January 31st, total shareholders return ratio is at this moment about 103%. And all the shares that we have doubled back will be eliminated. Next. I'd like to talk about each segment's full-year forecast and a comparison with the previous forecast. Please look at page 14. The blue column in the middle is the revised forecast for FY2023. Starting with liner trade, Its recurring profit is revised up by ¥3 billion over the previous forecast to ¥60 billion. The container vessel business environment saw in the third quarter a relaxing demand and supply situation, and the spot rates went down and aggravated the earnings. But at this moment, although the supply of newly built vessels continues, Panama Canal passing restrictions due to low sea level and the impact of the Red Sea situation is tightening space demand and supply. With these factors included to some extent, Expect improvement in earnings in the fourth quarter. Moving on to air cargo transportation. As we announced the other day, share exchanges between NCA and Anna Holdings has been changed to April 1st this year. Therefore, the results of this fiscal year, including the fourth quarter, will be reflected in our company's consolidated results. The fourth quarter, because of seasonal reason, is expected to be slow, but contributed by the improvement in the results in the third quarter on a full year basis, we expect increase in profit over the previous forecast. Moving on to logistics. it has been revised up by 500 million yen over the previous forecast at 24 billion yen. This is recurring profit. And both for ocean freight and air freight, the demands are slow and handling volume is expected to decrease compared to the previous forecast. Meanwhile, contract logistics contributed by firm demand in Europe and America will be propped up in its earnings. Bulk shipping business. Over the previous forecast, recovering profit is revised up by 5 billion yen to 170 billion yen. The transportation demand of automotive business is expected to remain strong, supported by complete car production recovery and firm sales in key countries. Given port congestion and the Panama Canal passing restrictions and Red Sea situation, we will capture demands through optimal vessel deployment and effective operation. Daiga bulk business was impacted by the stagnant Chinese economy till the end of the first half, but in the third quarter, Cape Science Barker and other vessel types saw improvement and the market condition improved. So we have revised up the market assumptions for the fourth quarter. In the energy business, energy vessel and offshore business has been supported by mid to long-term contracts and we expect a very firm result. VLCC and VLGC forecast remain intact. Going back by one page, on page 13, we have year-on-year comparison table, so please take a look at them as well. As shown in footnotes, from this fiscal year, we changed the calculation method for segment-wise items including interest. To facilitate year-on-year comparison, we have translated last year's results to the new calculation basis. The major changes there are other segments' expenses decreased, and along with that, each business segment earnings decreased. That is for the full year forecast for FY2023. In our homepage, we have the slide pages that we are showing today, and we also have an appendix which includes reference materials including assumptions for each segment. Please refer to them as well. Lastly, please look at page 15. In March last year, we announced our medium-term management plan, SAIL Green Drive Transformations 2026. And in its financial strategies, we have considered ROIC as target management KPI, as well as ROE financial metrics to measure efficiency of shareholders' capital, very important. Since last year, the TSE encouraged businesses to be more conscious of capital costs and share prices in their business operations. And we believe that we can satisfy their requests by promoting financial strategies in our Mid-Term Plan. But here we have one slide to summarize our thoughts because we are also focusing on the PBR of which our Mid-Term Plan has not touched upon and to make improvements. We are making progress. against our mid-term plan in line with our plan. And as to the details, we are going to share them with you when we announce 2023 fiscal year full year results in May this year. And with that, I would like to conclude my explanation. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Now, we would like to move on to the Q&A session. we would like to nominate from those who have raised hand. Please unmute the microphone and begin your question. The floor is yours. Two questions. I have two questions. First, for the October-December period, the foreign exchange gains and loss, I think there was a significant impact of about 20 billion yen or so. What is the reason behind this? Can you elaborate on the background of this foreign exchange? gains and loss, and how does this impact which part of your business? And my second question is that if I look at the other two companies, the passage restrictions in the Panama Canal, there seems to have been some impact on their PEO, but what is your case? Can you elaborate on that point, the impact of Panama? Thank you very much, sir, for your question. Now I would like to answer your question. The first question regarding the foreign exchange gains and loss, that was about 20 billion yen or so, slightly less than 20 billion. And how did that impact our business? The unreceived receivables, based on the balance of that receivable, the impact will vary. In addition to that, the currency hedge cost, has increased, and those were the major factors behind this number. Because we have to apply a certain amount of foreign exchange hedge, and because the interest gap between U.S. and Japan widening, that also had an impact. The second question, Panama Canal restriction of passage, how did that impact our business? As far as dry bulk is concerned, the impact was minimal, if any. according to how we see it. On the other hand, this has an impact on containers, especially the O&E part and also the automotive vessels. For the third quarter, this is already reflected in actual numbers. So we have seen a little impact from the Panama restriction. So that's how you should interpret the numbers. For the containers, because the freight started to rise towards the end of the fiscal – towards the end of December because this was partly affected by the Panama Canal passage restriction, according to our interpretation, and that is already reflected to some extent in our actual numbers. As for automotive vessels, for east coast of the United States, they have to – they because not being able to go through the Panama Canal, there was a certain impact. But as I said, we are trying to efficiently allocate the ship. And by doing so, we are trying to minimize the impact on our P&L. And we have been able to successfully curb that impact so far. And that's all for myself. Thank you. Did I answer your question? Yes. A follow-up question. Regarding the bulk shipping, there was 34.3 billion as of the end of December coming down from 40 billion. Was this because of the foreign exchange gains and losses? And was this significantly affected by the Panama Canal restrictions, or was that due to some other reasons, market conditions, for example? Automotive and energy, there were not so many irregular factors for that part. But in the dry bulk, to a certain extent, the forward freights were hedged to some extent. the foreign exchange impact, and together with the foreign exchange impact, the market, with the market conditions improving, the hedge evaluation losses will manifest itself, so that's included in the numbers there. Okay, got it. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Next question. I have one question. For this fiscal year, free cash flow, what is your latest forecast for this year's free cash flow? Interim results, according to about 82 billion yen upward, the revision was expected compared to the other initial data forecast. but the timing of selling your assets has been postponed, and there have been some factors to impact on the free cash flow. I think that the final cash flow will be better than the initial forecast. If there's any other comment that you can make at this moment, please. Thank you for the question. As to free cash flow, operating cash flow is steady. earnings are increasing. As to investment cash flow, since the timing regarding NCA is postponed, so as I mentioned earlier, so the sales of overseas terminals will come only in the next fiscal year. So that is the change of the timing. The early point Next year, we'll see the selling of those assets. But for this fiscal year, we will not have expected cash in, which would have come from those sales of assets. At this moment, we do not have other details here, but So it's not going to have the impact aside that asset sales timing change. And we'd like to explain about that at an appropriate timing Thank you. So basically, you are going to look at the cash flow year after year, and you are going to think about if it's possible to add more shareholders' return. Am I right? Yes. As we explained about it last time, for this fiscal year, by the end of April, the 200 billion yen being the ceiling that we are buying our own shares, And looking at the free cash flow going forward, we will continue to think about additional shareholders return next year and onwards. Thank you.

Thank you very much for the question. Now moving on to the next question. So I would like to nominate a person who has raised a hand. Please begin. Please unmute your microphone and begin your question. I have an additional question. For the January to March period, I would like to ask a question regarding your assumption for your plan. For the bulk shipping The profit level seems to be the same as the October-December period, and foreign exchange, you said that you had some reservations. So I don't think that this will no longer be a factor for the January-March period. So why is there a difference between Moyer Center and Improvement and also the logistics business? The profit is coming down. And also the air transportation business? I'm sure that there was an e-commerce factor, so that has made an improvement in the December quarter, but this is projected to make losses in the January-March period. Why is this? First of all, for the air transport business, in the fourth quarter, in addition to seasonal factors, we also have to incur maintenance cost in the fourth quarter. So because of this irregular factor, compared to the third quarter, we are projecting a decline. So if we exclude this irregular factor of maintenance cost, the drop in the fourth quarter will be smaller or be milder. So that's how you should interpret the numbers. Also, regarding the valuation for an exchange, you are right in that dry bulk in the fourth quarter. We are expecting some recovery to some extent. But on the other hand, then, from next fiscal year onwards, the foreign exchange reservation, we are making some hedges on foreign exchange, and that evaluation has to be – can only – we can only know about the evaluations only after March. So how will that turn out to be is something that we don't know yet. Okay, thank you. And also, what about logistics business? The logistics, of course, Mr. Banno can add some comments later, but for ocean and also air cargo, the handling volume in terms of quantity, well, actually the unit price of freight, freight rate has been improving with the ocean freight, but the margin has not caught up yet. So we are taking longer time than expected for catching up. If Mr. Ban, if you have any additional comments, please make some comments. Yes, as Mr. Kona mentioned already, if you compare third quarter with the fourth quarter, for the forwarding business overall, the market conditions remains unfavorable, so therefore the sluggishness remains persistent. Contract logistics business is going to change dramatically because in the third quarter, NYK has been quite strong in transport business, and we were able to handle a lot of our cargo. So that translated into gains in the third quarter. However, in the fourth quarter, after the new year, we are seeing some slowdown. And therefore, this will appear as weakness in the fourth quarter. So compared to the third quarter, I think things will be slower in the fourth quarter. Thank you.

I have an additional question. It's not about the results. The Swiss Canal and Panama Canal, the impact had shifted. And the container schedules and cargo which is left unloaded. Could you please talk about some update on the cargo situation? and also how your clients, customers are dealing with them and forwarding business. I think there must be some other handling process about the current situation. So Bando-san is going to explain about it. Thank you for the question. As to Panama Canal, From the end of last year, the impact has been emerging, especially for the east coast of North America. It has been the change to the Suez Canal. And coming into this year, now the Suez Canal, there's no passing there either. So it is getting a longer haul, the transportation on both sides, And around autumn, the cargo movements were not so good. And as for O&E, for North America and for Europe, we have discontinued some loops. And as a result of that, there's some vessels left not being used. And now we are fulfilling the longer loops with those vessels. We are currently recovering, going back to the complete weekly services. That is the current situation. We are not seeing any complete recovery yet. And now it is getting the longer distance. So the air transportation demand is expected to rise. But two years ago, we had a pandemic, and the current situation is different. The vessel itself, the ocean transportation itself is not completely ugly, but it's not that the space is becoming tighter. The customers have space in some cases, especially for production parts. The inventory might be low in some places, but it's not the case that the customers are hustling to use air cargo to transport their parts. That's not the situation. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Moving on to the next question. Are there any questions? If we do not have any questions, although it is slightly earlier than scheduled time to finish the meeting, we would like to finish this session at this juncture. If you have any follow-up questions later, you're welcome to send them to the IR group. All right, thank you. With this, we would like to finish the Q&A session. Thank you very much. With this, we would like to finish the 2023 third quarter results presentation session. Thank you very much once again for your participation.