Ontex Group Nv Ord

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Jeff Raskin from Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to have with us Gustavo, our CEO, to present the third quarter results. Before that, let me remind you of the safe harbor regarding forward-looking statements, which I will not read out loud, but which I assume you will have duly noted. Gustavo, over to you.

Thank you. Thank you, Geoff. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm here on my own, but I'm relieved that next time I will be accompanied by our new CFO, Gil Peters, who will join us in December, as you most likely have read in yesterday's press release. Meanwhile, I'm very pleased to report our quarter three figures, demonstrating continued improvement in our operations and confirming the turnaround of the company's performance and improved financial structure. Moving now to slide four is the summary of our main achievements. In our core markets, we delivered 10% like-for-like revenue growth, delivering an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.5%, a full percentage points increase compared to the third quarter of 2022, strengthening the year-to-date performance of 9.4%, driven by sustained prices and operational efficiencies, where our cost transformation program continues delivering cost savings. The strong EBITDA generation, including also a strong contribution from our work of discontinued emerging markets, drove our group leverage down to 3.6 times, less than half the peak of 7.7 times we recorded exactly a year ago. Moving now to slide five, providing details of the revenue of our core markets evolution from quarter three last year to this year. Volumes grew by 3% this quarter in both business units, Europe and North America. In Europe, retail brands continue to gain share. The main driver this time was adult care where we see more market demand for retail brands. On-text sales benefited from this trend by continuing to grow volumes in priority categories, where we can differentiate more from the competition. The growth was most pronounced in adult care and baby pants. In North America, which constitutes our biggest growth opportunity, we are reconnecting with double digit growth again. The de-stocking of lifestyle brands customers in the first half is over. And more importantly, our new leadership teams initiative are starting to delivering new business for Ontex North America, seeing the result of new retail brand contracts wins. Prices were up 8% overall. While these are largely based on the pricing gradually implemented throughout last year, we're managing them closely, resulting in sustaining the price level of the first half of the year. Finally, we recorded a 5% adverse forex impact. Now on slide six, we are comparing our quarter three core adjusted EBITDA versus last year with a strong increase of 81%, reaching 44 million euro driven by volume growth and continued cost transformation program contributing with 20 million euro and our pricing momentum supported by our goal to provide our customers with value through product innovation. Cost inflation continues to have a negative impact by 12 million euro, but it has reduced significantly compared to the impact on the previous quarters. Raw material prices decreases versus the start of the year as indices came down. Year on year, however, the raw material cost is still higher by 5 million euro. The impact of index changes takes some time to feed through the P&L, and these indices are only a part of the price equation, being also subject to other cost factors, as is the case for our own operating costs, which were up by 7 million, reflecting wage inflation and energy costs, among others. Forex had a highly negative impact of €21 million on the result. Even though these external elements were significant, similarly to last quarter, they are almost fully offset by pricing, contributing €33 million. But as you know, these do not cover the full inflation we observed since the beginning of the inflation spike starting in 2021. On slide seven, You can see the evolution of our core adjusted EBITDA by quarters since 2022. Since mid-2022 now, four or five consecutive quarters, we have been growing our core adjusted EBITDA, recovering gradually but steadily from the cost inflation spike. Our delivery so far this year is double that of the last year. This is also reflected by the margin which has doubled compared to the first half of 2022 to more than 9% consistently this year, and in line with the high end of our initial guidance. The margin came down slightly in Q3 compared to Q2, and this is mainly due to some exceptional one-off energy costs in North America following the carving of the Tijuana operations. These costs are temporary and will have ended by 2024. Moving now on to slide eight, our cost information program is an important driver for the EBITDA improvement and critical pillar of our value creation model. The program was initiated towards the end of 2021. And in 2022, we deliver operating efficiencies in our core operations of close to 5%. And now in 2023, it's reaching levels above 5%. This is the result of the acceleration of our strategy execution with continuous improvement in all fronts, procurement, supply chain, manufacturing efficiencies like OEE, as well as from R&D on its new innovation program. On slide nine, you can see the evolution of the net debt and leverage of the whole group, including the contribution of our emerging markets division, which has been very strong in the quarter. We have meaningful reduced our net debt in the year so far, mostly with the divestment proceeds from the sale of the Mexican business receiving quarter two, which combined with a strong EBITDA from both our core and emerging markets, have significantly reduced our leverage ratio to 3.6 times at the end of September. This is less than half of the 7.7 times peak we recorded exactly a year ago, and the best level achieved since 2020. And we have the firm ambition to bring this farther down. Our working capital needs stabilized in the quarter, despite the still growing sales. we successfully managed to improve our cash conversion cycle efficiency, especially through inventory management. This created room for our capital investment program, now at the level above 4% of revenue in the quarter, increasing then consistently since quarter one. Our capital investment program is the enabler to our value creation plan. By strengthening our innovation pipeline, gradually expanding the capacity in North America to support our high growth ambitions as we continue to increase our market penetration and transforming our European operations to become the most efficient in Europe, boosting our competitiveness. The initial benefits are already visible in our results, and this gives me high confidence to continue to improve our EBITDA margin in line with our ambitions. Now moving to slide 10, we confirm our outlook for 2023. Revenue of core markets is still expected to grow high single digits like for like. The adjusted EBITDA margin of our core market is expected at the high end of our initial eight to 10 range. And quarter four is to deliver the strongest margin in the year, around 10. Emerging markets are expected to continue to contribute positively to our group EBITDA and free cash flow. We have already beaten our initial leverage outlook of four times set at the start of the year, as well as the new one of 3.75 times set in July. We now intended to improve further from the 3.6 times we realized in September. At the same time, We ensure our continuous investment level of close to 5% of revenue, which will allow us to continue to improve our margins as per our plans to create shareholder value. This to support our innovation program, new business development in North America, and more efficient operations through our cost transformation program. On the slide 11, to sum up, Our Q3 results and 2023 delivery so far have been very, very encouraging. They show that the turnaround strategy at Ontex is delivering in all fronts, growing revenues, improving margins, and overall profitability, and rebuilding our financial structure with significant reduced leverage. We continue the momentum on refocusing the portfolio After the investment of the Mexican business, we reached agreements on the small Algeria and Pakistan business, and the profitability recovery in Brazil and Turkey is promising trigger to relaunch their divestment process. The acceleration of our strategy is well underway, and the positive momentum motivates us all to continue with this journey as we still have much more to do. Finally, I would like to thank all Ontex employees for embracing the accelerated execution of our strategic plans. I would also like to thank all other stakeholders for the support and confidence they have shown in Ontex's ability to deliver its turnaround. I'm now available to answer your questions.

Now, before we move to Q&A, can I ask all participants to clearly state their name and company? and also try to limit yourself to two questions to keep it manageable. Thanks a lot. Operator, over to you.

Thank you. If you do have a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. The first question from the phone line state comes from Marcus Schmidt of OdoBHF.

Yeah, it's Marcus Schmidt from OdoBHF Credit Research. I have just two questions, thanks for taking them. The first one is on the cash flow in the quarter. I think you paid cash interest on the bond of 10.1 million in the quarter, but you had a use of cash of 16 in the core group. Could you maybe re-cancel the cash flow from the adjusted EBITDA level and also explain at what point you will produce a positive leverage for cash flow and whether you see this figure on an annual basis going forward? And the second question is, if you could please tell where do you see the net debt at the end of 2023, and what net proceeds do you expect from the Algeria and Pakistan divestments until the end? Thank you.

Thank you, Markus, for your question. I have to say that I need to understand better your first question, please.

I apologize. Sure, happy to help. I recognize that cash from June to September declined by about 16 million in the core group. Since you do not provide a cash flow statement, I just want to understand how you get to that use of cash. You had adjusted EBITDA of 44 million in the quarter. I know you had 10 million to pay the coupon on the bond, I think in July. And I think you mentioned also CapEx was about 4%, when I'm not wrong, on revenue in the period. But I try to understand the moving parts, how you get from 44 million adjusted EBITDA to a use of cash of 16 million in the quarter. That is my question. It can also be maybe taken offline later when it's better. I'm just curious. It's not in a hurry here.

I understand that we don't provide the cash flow right now, but our working capital has been flat throughout the quarter. The EBITDA has increased. Our CAPEX also has increased. And yes, we still have a positive net.

Okay. Maybe we can take it offline later on. I'm not 100% sure if I understand that bridge really, but maybe more later. Maybe you can do the second question. So on the net debt at year end and the net proceeds from Algeria, Pakistan, maybe you can give some some guidance?

Yes, our net debt is 652,650 is flat and that's for the, we ended in the quarter and the proceeds from Algeria and Pakistan are not relevant to consider for, you know, reducing the debt. A very, very marginal. Okay.

So net debt as of now likely... Say 52. Yeah. Will likely be the same at year end then, obviously. Is that... Yes.

Yes.

Yes, exactly. Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

The next question is from Wim Host of KBCS.

Yes, good morning. I also have two questions, please. The first one is on emerging markets business. Can you elaborate a little bit on the performance? I think it was a very nice margin jump. How sustainable can that be? And also, What is this margin improvement, mainly Brazil-related, as I understood? What does that mean for the disposal ambition you have? Can you maybe elaborate also on the timing of that disposal process? How far are you? In what kind of stage are you? Those were the questions, please.

Okay, very good. So regarding the actual business performance in the emerging markets and the sustainability of that, we certainly believe on that because it's through strong cost savings and refocusing during this year on our portfolio, and working on the cost savings there. And also we have made a strong market gains, market share gains in certain categories where we have put the focus. So we certainly have the total confidence that are sustainable and we can keep always improving. So that's on the answer on how sustainable they are. Yes, they are. uh, you know, structurally structured changes in, in the way that we were doing, we are doing the business in, in emerging markets. And especially in Brazil with, uh, with a strong recovery, uh, making, expanding the business in certain categories where we put the focus launching new products. Uh, and yeah, all that combined and a strong team that we have in place, uh, good financial performance, good cashflow. give us confidence also in the selling process that we are restarting. So when do we see that? We are starting the relaunch of the selling process at this moment for Brazil and for Turkey. And we are progressing. We are start progressing during this year, the rest of this year. And yeah, we have expectations for for closing those prospects by 24, beginning 24. So we'll see how it evolves, but we are confident based on the results and the interest shown so far.

Okay, understood. Thank you. You're welcome.

Our next question is from Charles Eden of UBS.

Hi, Gustavo. One additional one from me, please. On the guidance for high single-digit sales growth for 23 in the core markets, am I right in saying that is on a like-for-like basis? I think it is. And then if so, that would imply a flattish or even a like-for-like sales decline in Q4 in the core market. So given you should still see some positive year-over-year pricing benefit, is there an expectation for a volume decline we should be aware of in Q4 Or is this just a degree of prudence in the guidance on that metric? Thank you.

No, no. So we are not seeing volume decline. Thank you, Charles, for the question. We are not seeing volume decline. We are confident in our volume to continue to keep growing. And as I was mentioning before in the presentation, we have a strong new business development in North America. And also we are doing, you know, good progress, volume growth in our specific focus categories in Europe. So certainly we are not seeing volume decline. And yeah, we are expecting the high end of this growth on the top line. Yeah.

Great. If I could just have a quick follow-up. Quick follow-up. Thanks, Gustavo. Yeah, I'm just because I'm looking at the first nine months call market like 13%. So I'm just sort of saying, look, is that just you just want to be cautious with a view to not over-promising and under-delivering, which may be on Texas in the past. Is that really what you're trying to say? Not that we should be aware of any material impact on something in Q4 2021?

Yeah, you're reading me very well. Yes, I've been trying to be prudent the whole year. I keep behaving in that way. We are not seeing, and I would not like you to think that we are seeing something coming in the wrong direction for us. No, no, we're expecting continue to be strong in the revenue growth.

That's perfect.

Thanks, Gustavo.

You're welcome.

Our next question is from Fernand de Boer of the group Petrochem.

Yes, good morning. It's also two questions. One, I think you mentioned that you had kind of one-off in energy cost in the US. Is it possible to quantify that? And then it was not entirely clear to me that you said we expect that to end by 2024. Do you mean that it still runs... until the end of next year or that it ends this year? That's the first question. And then you had, let's say, a volume mix component of 3% this quarter. Well, the additional EBDA of this sales was only 1 million, which looks very low to me. So what explains this low operational leverage on this additional sales?

Mm-hmm. Okay, so on the energy cost, yes, it was specifically in our Tijuana plant that is located in Mexico. And as a result of our carve-in in the month of last May and in April, we started to have an increase on the energy cost because of the new entity. due to the new entity. And yes, it was impacting in a significant accumulated way from May all together to the third quarter. And then we're going to have another portion on the fourth quarter of that energy increase. But we know we are all set to not have any more in 24. So it's not that it will continue in 24. where we are all set to not have it. What I'm saying we are all set is we have our contract in place, everything set and the pricing for the 2024, which is different and have no that surplus. That is for Tijuana or energy cost impacting. Regarding volume mix 3% on the quarter and 1 million additional in EBITDA, We have also the forex exchange rate impact, and that has been significantly in playing a role there to, let's say, to not, I don't want to say minimize, but reduce the impact of that sales into the EBITDA.

Can I then come back on this forex impact? Because it was minus 22 million, I think, in Q3. So what could we expect in Q4? Because I'm always puzzled about this number because then one hand you say we are hedged and the other hand we say we cannot predict currencies. But you know now what the forex is at the moment and you also know how you are hedged on this. So I still don't understand how you arrive at 22 million for this quarter and then going forward, what does it mean for Q4 and maybe even in the first half of 24?

Yeah, so we had a significant impact in Q3 coming from one impact was the ruble, our Russian operations significant, and then also the fluctuations between the dollar and the euro. uh that's another consequence and uh but in q4 we're assuming uh our september actuals uh going into q4 that's our expectation um of course that is still a forecast okay thank you and yes we can also follow up with you then joff can follow up in terms of the explain a little bit because you said it hard for you to be to understand the 21 million impact. And there's pretty much detail on that that I'm sure that Geoff can follow up with you individually.

OK. One last question, because coming back on the previous question on the guidance. If you look now, we had 8% price in Q3. Normally speaking, What should that be in Q4? Because that has to go close to zero. Or is that a wrong assumption?

So price increase, it will decrease in Q4. I don't want to give an exact number to you at the moment. We don't disclose that. But yes, you should expect that it will decrease. Okay.

Thank you very much.

Our next question is from James Cawthorpe of Barclays Bank, TLC.

Hi, it's actually Karine from Barclays. Thank you very much for taking my question. You may have touched a little bit on that before, but I just wanted to spend a bit more time on the pricing environment. Obviously, as raw material prices are coming up, are you seeing any pressure to reduce prices or is the direction of travel being a bit different depending on the various different raw material prices? That would be helpful.

Thank you. Can you repeat, please? Because honestly, the voice was a little bit, the connection was a little bit harsh to understand.

Okay, sure. Apologies about that. There you go. Great. Thank you. I just wanted to get a little bit more clarity from you on the pricing environment. I mean, overall, my thought was raw material prices are coming off, but it seems that this is not necessarily a linear decline. Are you seeing any pressure from retailers to reduce prices? How should we think about the pricing environment?

Yeah, yeah. Thank you. Thank you for repeating. And answering you, yes, it's not about pressure, but I think that, yes, with some indices going down, now they are stabilized, right? But they went down. So, yes, we have conversation with retailers in terms of that. And we should, you know, the environment, yes, it is. The retailers, they are looking after price reductions Let me add to that, our retailers conversation has been very positive so far in terms of that we are trying to build a different relationship instead of building, you know, being just a trade type of conversation with them. We are building a relationship where we talk about the strategy, we talk about product innovation, how to give value to the retail brand and the products that they are selling. So the conversations are not just in a trading way. So we feel very positive in terms of that. Retailers are open to those type of discussion. We understand the needs of the retailers. And of course, I would say that in the market, there is a discussion in pricing differently.

Thank you. And maybe just a quick broader question as well. I mean, you've been very cautious and yet delivered and over-delivered on your results, you know, throughout. So, you know, core margins are definitely getting to that sort of like 10%. What do you think realistically, obviously, is where core margins would end up shaking? Is the mid-teens still, you know, achievable, I think, in your opinion? I'm not trying to put a timeline on that, but what do you think is the underlying real... for the core business.

So that's a very, you can imagine with your question, it's very difficult for me to be fully transparent with you. I wish I can do it publicly in terms of what are my aspirations and my belief and what we are after, right? Because we are working very hard. Our commitment is very clear in terms of creating value for the shareholders and And, you know, the financial performance is critical here. Reducing our debt is critical. Growth of our business is critical. And reducing our costs, those two things, our growth, new businesses, and reducing the cost will deliver more, you know, more margin into the business. We aspire to keep growing. So I cannot give you a number. But I can tell you that definitely we aspire to keep growing throughout 2024.

That's very helpful. Thank you very much and congrats again. Thank you very much.

Much appreciated. Thank you. Our next question is from Patrick Follin of Barclays.

Hey, Jeff. Hey, Gustavo. Thanks for the question. Hello, Patrick. Hi. I just have one, and I'm just, looking at the vol mix of 3% and you talk about North America volumes are back up double digits. I'm assuming most of that is due to the kind of customer just stocking elements are reversing in the second half. And I just kind of want to quantify what percentage of that was the stocking versus the customer gains. But then also thinking of the core market business and that 3%, I imagine North America was the majority of that kind of 3% vol mix number.

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Yes, Patrick. So the U.S., this talking has finished, so we are back into track. But the year today, I would say that definitely compared with last year, it's below in terms of the lifestyle. So the growth that we are getting in U.S. is, I would say, totally related to the new businesses that we are developing there. I can tell you that it's very encouraging to see the new leadership team that is there, how they are approaching this new business, developing this with plenty of initiatives. And of course, that we are investing a big portion of our capital expenditure is because we're investing in adding capacity into the U.S. market to respond to that. Many of these new businesses have started somehow this year and will continue throughout the quarter four, but definitely majority of that impact we want to see during 2024. So the growth, a double digit growth that we experience in US is very healthy and we are developing that new business in the retail brand. What do I see in Europe? I see that although the total volume in Europe perhaps is not a significant volume mix increase, but in certain categories, in our specific categories where we want to compete, where we know that we have a competitive advantage and also they are very value-added for the customers, we are growing market share, so meaning that we are growing faster than the market. And categories like adult pants and baby pants are also high-end single-digit or double-digit growth.

Okay, sorry, just to clarify on the Europe was still positive volume mix, right?

Yes, certainly, yes.

Thank you.

You're welcome.

Next question is from Salome Sharamele of Aben Amro, Odoo BHF.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I have two. The first one, I would like to come back on the price um implementation so you mentioned that you still had an impact from the price implementation you did last year um for q3 shall we consider it as fully passed on or shall it still have an impact um on on revenue so this was my first one thank you so the um yeah you

Sorry, can you say it again, the impact that we had? So still impact from 2022 pricing? Yes, because we started the pricing increase in 2022. Most of the pricing was in Q3, Q4, and Q1 2023. So that is most of the pricing implementation. So in Q3, we still, this year, we are starting to compare with already Q3 higher price of last year. So towards quarter four, it's going to be even more. So the gap between quarter four of this year of quarter four last year, it will be reduced. So just due to the comparison. So yeah, I don't know if I'm answering it was that what was yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah, it's pretty good Thank you. And my second one is on the Middle East situation Do you see or do you expect any direct or indirect indirect impact from that?

In this Indices, you know, I believe yeah so a Well, I think that the impact there, it could be in the oil price, as we are seeing. So, oil price going up, and that oil price, it will hurt our, of course, in the cost of the logistics, and also in all raw materials that they derive from the oil. So, we are in this moment, the question is very good, because in this moment we are assessing outlook of those raw material costs versus what we have done in August, for instance. So, but that it will be, you know, for us and for all the peers, right? So, but it's something that we need to assess. And that's why we try to be prudent also in all discussions in terms of the cost, because it's a moment where we are doing a new assessment on the forecast of that.

Okay, thank you a lot. That's very clear.

You're welcome. The next question comes from Carl Zout of Kettler.

Yes, good afternoon all. Thanks for taking the questions. I have two questions. A follow-up one on Brazil, because you've been doing well. I think most of the companies we look at report positive momentum in the market. Can you be a bit more specific in which segments you've emphasized and got good growth in return? And the other question is on the North American market, because on an earlier question, you said that the reachful conversations are better and not only about price, but also on a more strategic level. I presume this is also very much true for the US business, probably more than for Europe. What have you kind of changed in the US business over the last three to six months that now gives this momentum and confidence? Thank you.

Okay. Good question, Simon. Thank you. In terms of Brazil, you asked about which segments. So first of all, our business model in Brazil, it's a very unique business model in terms of we are a multi-tier, a multi-brand model. And we have a very, very significant distribution across the country. So where we put the focus is in baby care and adult care. Those two segments are our focus there. And in both, we are gaining market share. And also specifically within those two categories, also we emphasize this in some specific segments of within the category. Um, so that I know if that, I hope that answered your first, first question in Brazil, uh, specifically now in North America that you ask, uh, uh, yeah, you're absolutely right. Very good conversations with, uh, customers, uh, uh, and a re big retailers. They're big, big retailers. you know that retail brand in the US is not as much as developed in Europe. And we have been analyzing that. And also, based on my experience in the past, knowing that market and in the way that some of the retailers and big retailers were, some of them, they were treating retail brand in one way and some others in another one, of course. But there is a lot of room for And our discussion is how we collaborate each other to improve the retail brand performance within the retailer. And those conversations are going very well with already some of them with very positive outcome on those conversations. but believe me that it will continue being like that. We have a very solid position in U.S., in particular competitive position that give us the opportunity to expand and create new business with retailers because also our footprint there where we have a West Coast and an East Coast production is a big advantage. We are the unique retailers, suppliers with that footprint. And that gives us an advantage versus competitors. And also we are the number one global retailer supplier. So our global knowledge in terms of this, I think that help us also to have constructive discussions with the customers. I hope that I have answered your question.

Yeah, thank you. Very, very clear. And as a quick follow up on the US, With the footprint you currently have, do you require much investment to grow the business substantially or is the current footprint sufficient to add a couple of dozens, millions extra in revenues?

What it will require is capital because we need to add capacity. We are talking here on significant growth. And yeah, it will require... CapEx to add more capacity, more machines. And we are balancing that, of course, within the entire business, but that is what we require. And strengthen the team. We start doing that with the team. We are following with the capacity. And yeah, we are ready to supply our customers. And they are seeing that And that's something that you need to ensure them that you're going to have the right supply, the right quality. And yeah, it's a new born business for us.

Thank you.

Welcome.

Our next question is from William Dennis of Bank of America.

Hello, William. hi thank you thank you for taking the question um seems most people have answered already um you've answered my questions most of them um so i have two more on liquidity um i didn't see anything um in the um the release on the rcf the new rcf and how much was drawn um this quarter um please could you stand and give it more detail if possible um and uh lastly on the market share gains earlier this year, you mentioned you have gained some market share going towards the end of this year. Do you see this continuing? Do you see, and also on volumes, is this mostly as a result of just overall new business wins or it's basically more demand from customers already as established customers?

That's it for me. Yes. So on the first one, William, I only can say that the liquidity is good. We are in a good position. But unfortunately, we don't disclose exactly now these numbers. But we are good. We are okay. And then on your second question regarding market share gains, what we are expecting to continue, yes. overall in the core markets we are expecting, as I was mentioning, with good new businesses that we are developing in the US, and then specifically gain market share in specific categories where we are focusing in Europe. And then you said, are you growing the volume due to the market growth Yes, more sales in the same customer or we are gaining new businesses in Europe as well. Yes, in some categories where we are putting focus, yes, we are gaining new business and sustaining the existing ones and gaining new business in our focus categories. So my answer is yes, we expect to keep sustaining, growing market share in those specific categories where we are focusing on.

Thank you. Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

There are no further questions at this time.

All right. Very good. Very good. So that concludes then the Q&A. And now before closing the call, I would like to emphasize that we have now consistently delivered on expectations for more than a year. that these results confirm our recovery momentum further and that we are making solid progress on the portfolio refocusing and that we thereby are on track with the acceleration of the strategy execution. I want to thank you. Thank you very much. And hear you in February or before, hopefully, right? I'm expecting with a hit our new CFO in place already. So thank you very much. Have a good day and good weekend.