10/23/2025

speaker
Juha
Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon. Good morning, everyone. This is Juha from Metsos Investor Relations. And it's my pleasure to welcome you to this conference call where we discuss our third quarter 2025 results that were published earlier this morning. The results will be presented by our president and CEO Sami Takaluoma and CFO Pasi Schyckling. And after that, we will have a Q&A session. And as usually, we try and limit the length of this call to 60 minutes. Before we go, I want to remind about the forward-looking statements that will be made in this call. And I think without further ado, it's time to hand over to President and CEO Sami Takalom. Sami, please go ahead.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Thank you, Juha. And good morning, good afternoon also from my side. Without further ado, let's start to look for the Q3 highlights. The market activity was very much in line with our expectations. And that also resulted us then to deliver healthy order growth. We had also strong sales growth for the Quartal and our adjusted EBITDA was good, normal, strong. And for this Quartal, cash generation was very solid and gave us quite a clean sheet for the Q3. Looking more then from the group perspective of the key figures, so orders received growth compared to the previous Q3 last year was 2%. And as we have highlighted in the Q3 24, we did have significant large mineral scapex orders that we did not have in the Q3 25. Sales growth was then 10% compared to the previous quarter last year, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 9%. All in all, the EBITDA as second quarter was having this dip, so we are now back in the normal METSO EBITDA numbers. Looking for our two segments, let's start from the aggregates. We had a healthy orders growth coming in the quarter, 280 million euros. That is 13% in constant currencies. This growth was mainly driven by the normalized market in North America and then the pickup that we have seen coming from Europe. Equipment orders did represent the growth of 11% and the aftermarket 2% of the order growth. Sales was also stronger than a year ago. Equipment sales growth was 14% and aftermarket 1%. Aftermarket share now with these numbers was then 32% compared to 35% that it was one year ago. And adjusted EBITDA improvement by 3 million, so 48 million for the quarter. And that represents then 15.6 margin for the segment. And minerals had a very solid quarter in many ways. Orders grew 5% in the constant currencies and aftermarket orders growth was now 12%. we saw in the capex side very solid order intake when it comes to the small and mid-sized equipment orders and in the aftermarket side increase of the upgrades and modernizations as we have commented that they are in the pipeline regarding the sales 1 billion plus compared to the 928 million year before. Aftermarket was delivering 4% growth and the equipment side was now a 19% growth for the quarter. Aftermarket share of the sales in this quarter was 60%. And the adjusted EBITDA euros, 184 million was reported, and that gives the margin of 18.0, which is pretty much in line from the last year, 18.1. And now, Pasi, the CFO, will go more in detail the financial aspects.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Thank you, Sami, and good day, everyone, on my behalf. I would like to start by reminding that we have restated our comparative figures for 24 quarters and first two quarters this year regarding the metals and chemical processing business that we decided to retain and consequently we have reclassified the comparative information. Let's then look at our group income statement more in details. I mean, sales increased 12% in constant currencies from the comparative period to 1,328,000,000. Adjusted EBITDA 222,000,000, which is 18,000,000 or 9% improvement from the comparison period. Net financials slightly up, reflecting the higher debt load that we have in our balance sheet, and income tax rate for the quarter, 24%, and then for the first nine months or three quarters this year, 25%, so very much within the standard range that we expect. Earnings per share from continuing operations, 17 cents up by one euro cent from the comparative period. If we then look at our financial position, the average interest rate for the period was 3.4%. Our net debt, roughly 1.1 billion euros. Liquid funds continue to be solid. 460 million is end of September. And our net debt to EBITDA KPI when we're using rolling 12 months in EBITDA was 1.3 times, which is below our 1.5 times targets and also down from 1.5 that we had end of second quarter, thanks to good earnings in the quarter, as well as strong cash flow during the third quarter. When it comes to available credit facilities, our position is unchanged. We have our fully undrawn RCF and then we have also a CP program, which is currently not in use. And then our ratings are also no changes, so BBB flat from S&P and BAA2 from Moody's. If we then move to the cash flow, so we delivered a healthy cash flow during the quarter, the strongest quarterly cash flow this year, 266 million from operations. And overall, we have delivered during the first nine months, 609 million. A positive note is that working capital is not a drug for us anymore. Of course, the release 12 million is small, but given that the business growth was solid, we are quite happy with this and continue to work with further working capital efficiency improvements. With that, I would like to hand back to Sami to talk about our strategy execution and outlook.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Thank you, Pasi. So in Q3, we also launched our new strategy, We Go Beyond. We are very happy of the launch, both internally and also externally. And in a nutshell, we are striving for being the best in the customer experience in our industries. We are working for the higher and higher aftermarket share of our businesses. And we also set a target for ourselves to be the front runners when it comes to sustainability and safety. And all this combined will then also ensure that we do deliver the financial excellence. This is a growth strategy. We have set the target for ourselves for annual growth and excellence means everything that METSO does and that will be resulting then that METSO will be the number one in our selected areas. We do count a lot to our very engaged employees, Metzonites out there. So the customer centric growth culture is one of the key success factors and also ensuring that we do have the industry leading capabilities in our organization to help our customers for the upcoming years. And talking about the revised financial targets, just a reminder here. So annual sales growth target is 7%. And we're starting point now looking for the year to date 25 numbers. So 22% we have been able to do. So this is clearly the ambition to accelerate this growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin we upgraded that to 18 from the 17 previously divided by the segments so that aggregates to deliver more than 17 and minerals more than 20 and year to date so far we are in 15.7. Net debt to EBITDA, the target for ourselves is that we will be below 1.5, and that one currently we are well on track already, and we are targeted to keep that way. And regarding the dividends, so the payout is going to be at least 50% of the earnings per share, and as you all remember, 2024, that was 63%. The strategy execution is already ongoing. We have done investments, acquisitions to improve our selected areas. Screening business Saimu was acquired in China that made Metso to be in top three in the Chinese market for this business. And then two smaller ones, TL Solution, which is just a sustainability related mill liner recycling technology company. And then Q&R Industrial Hoses, which is linked to our pump businesses, where we are also having accelerated growth targets. We are currently reviewing some of our businesses. One of them is the loading and hauling business and looking for the next strategic steps regarding that business. Investments we have done already during the last year. um some investments especially to to support our intentions to grow our aftermarket share and one of them the latest one is screening manufacturing center that we are currently building up in in Romania And when it comes to the market outlook, we expect that the market activity in both of our segments, minerals and aggregates, will remain at the current level. And we also want to highlight in this context now that the tariff-related turbulence is not over. We do hear this from our customers, and there is potentially an effect then for the global economic growth and also the market activity.

speaker
Juha
Head of Investor Relations

All right. Thank you, gentlemen, for the presentation. And operator, we are now ready for Q&A.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

To ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. To enter the queue, if you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Michael Harlow from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Harlow
Morgan Stanley Analyst

Good morning, and thank you very much for the presentation and for taking our questions. I have two, if I may. The first one would be on your impressive aftermarket order growth. If you could help us unpack what's underlying and if there are any one-offs in that, that would be very helpful. And then regarding the aggregates, segment one of your competitors mentioned a dealer restocking so I was wondering if you could tell us if you are seeing any of that happening thank you very much thank you excellent questions regarding the aftermarket growth in orders especially so

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

We have commented in these goals earlier that one element of the aftermarket portfolio that we have is the upgrades and modernizations. They do have a small cyclic element and that has affected then so that the comparison period especially last year did not see almost any of those coming through. And then our pipeline has been quite solid at the funnel. We know that the cases are there. There has been slight hesitation from the customers to make the decision, the timing of the decision. And now in Q3, they started to come through from the funnel as an order. So that was in line of our expectation in that sense. When it comes to the aggregates, uh the distributor network in especially in the us had a situation that 2024 the end customers did not purchase machines at the normal pace and that created the situation that the distributor stocks were quite full What we have seen from our side is that the normalization of the U.S. market started to happen at the end of last year, beginning of this year. And that's visible for us when we look at the stock levels of our distributors. They have gradually, month after month, increased. coming down from the very high levels that they were at the mid-24. So from that perspective, there is element of distributor stock has an impact also to our numbers, but we also see that the market has normalized from that behavior during this year.

speaker
Michael Harlow
Morgan Stanley Analyst

Thank you. That was very helpful.

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

So I would like to...

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Edward Hussey from UBS. Please go ahead. The next question comes from Christian Hinderaker from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Christian Hinderaker
Goldman Sachs Analyst

I want to start on aggregates. At the CMD you mentioned equipment utilization was down 20% or so from the year before. Obviously interested then in the OE order growth in that segment at 11% and some of the comments in the release that you're seeing a better demand environment in both North America and Europe. What's driving that and also I wonder if you could perhaps give an indication on the average age of the installed fleet on that side of the business?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yeah, so the running hours is having an impact mainly for the aftermarket demand. Then the new equipment need is not always clearly linked for this because the New technology will enable more cost-efficient operation for the customers. So the renewal of fleet is depending on customers' own behavior in his or her business case. So from that perspective, it varies based on the customer. age we have a very wide portfolio and deliveries every year and and that makes that there is also second owner or even third owner for the equipment uh normally so this is how the aggregate the mobile uh equipment business works and the typical uh full lifetime if if well maintained uh is is between 15 and 20 years when when the life is fully ended

speaker
Christian Hinderaker
Goldman Sachs Analyst

Thank you, that's helpful. Maybe we can turn to working capital. At the CMD, you set out ambitions to take share in the aftermarket. I guess keen to understand if we should think about this requiring higher inventory levels over the coming years, either in Euro million terms or in percent of sales, or whether you think you can unlock some efficiencies that mean you can grow the top line whilst improving that inventory number.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Thanks, Christian. Excellent question. And indeed, one of our main pillars in the strategy is to grow the aftermarket business. And I mean, it's not a straightforward question to answer, but of course, if we grow the business in absolute terms, it will require more inventory. But then, you know, what we also believe is that in relative terms, when it comes to inventory turns or inventory in comparison to our top line, there is room for improvement across the board, but then also in the aftermarket part of the business. So that's how we are looking at that.

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

Thank you, Pasi.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Chitri Dasinha from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Chitri Dasinha
JP Morgan Analyst

Good afternoon. Congrats on the strong successful results, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. So my first one is just on the minerals margin, which is broadly flat at 18% despite the aftermarket mix. Could you provide more color on the organic development here?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yes, I think 18 is something that at this point we are happy. It's OK. It's in line of our expectation. As we build the roadmap in the capital market day, how we are going to be reaching the 20 targeted markets. number for the strategy period. So there are several elements. And in this quarter, the aftermarket was having a good contribution for that one. There is a need for the capital equipment sales to be higher in terms of leveraging that part as well. And then we continue to work with our self-help initiatives and as 75% of the company is a mineral segment, the impact will be mostly seen there when we do company-wide actions.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Sirit, I would like to complete or complement a bit. I think what you have also seen or what we have experienced in the third quarter is the strength of our capital business. I mean, Relative share of the capital increased overall, but especially in the minerals. And we have a good, healthy business there. And then it supports also, you know, delivering this kind of margins. And, you know, we are quite satisfied with that.

speaker
Chitri Dasinha
JP Morgan Analyst

Great. Very clear. So my second question is on the aggregate margin, where you've brought back some costs, I think, in Q2 in anticipation for a ramp up. So what is the best way to think about the volume threshold where you can comfortably achieve more than 16% again? I'm trying to drive out whether we should expect to pick up in Q4. Would it be more 2026?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yeah, so first of all, you know, this course that we have taken gradually back in aggregate refers to our Finnish operations there and the fact that the local legislation here enables laying people off on a temporary basis. And during this low period, we have used that opportunity and now during first half of this year when our order books have been strengthening, We have taken people back to work and they are busy currently working with the order book that we have. Then I'm afraid we are not in a position to give you exact volume guidance on when certain thresholds when it comes to margins are reached. But overall, I mean, we delivered well. a few percentage points below 16 now in the third quarter. And this is also a volume gain. So there is still capacity in the system to deliver higher volumes without, for example, increasing manpower. And then the drop through from additional business comes with significantly higher margins.

speaker
Chitri Dasinha
JP Morgan Analyst

Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Vivek Mitta from Citi. Please go ahead.

speaker
Vivek Mitta
Citi Analyst

Thank you very much, everyone. Good morning. Hope you can hear me well. It's Vivek on behalf of CLAS. First question is around the restatement to the minerals EBITDA from discontinued operations. That impact grew in the second quarter and curious to know what was the uplift to the minerals EBITDA from this in the third quarter. Was it similar to the second quarter? Appreciate that it doesn't impact the organic growth and margin. Just curious about the absolute impact. Thank you.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yeah. No, thanks, Vivek, for that. And we published the restated numbers with quarterly breakup of 24 and first half of 26, you know, earlier this month. And while we will not provide a specific third quarter numbers and then going forward, we'll not comment specific business lines. What we can say is that the impact was significant. sort of a similar in third quarter as we experienced in average during these periods that we have restated. And, you know, I know that in the second quarter with these numbers, it was slightly higher than in average, but what we had was sort of the average from these restated periods.

speaker
Vivek Mitta
Citi Analyst

Understood. Thank you. My second question is just following up on the outlook and your comments around tariff uncertainty and so on. We're seeing very good growth in minerals, excluding the larger orders. I appreciate maybe the Section 232 and tariff concerns might be more applicable to aggregates. So curious, given the strong commodity price backdrop, why you've not potentially raised that minerals outlook? Thank you.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yeah. It's true that the tariff situation has impact on both of our segments, but it's also true that the impact potentially is higher for the aggregate. So tariff in minerals side is a little bit related to the US-based customers and projects. and then generally globally the uncertainty which is not helping making the significant decisions of the investments of multi-billion for the new projects. But that hopefully, is stabilizing and not having impact on that side. And then in the aggregates, it's really all about how the U.S. market will be reacting because the tariff... situation is having an impact on, for example, what is the end customer pricing and these kind of elements. So that might slow down the US now normalized market from that perspective, potentially.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

You know, Vivek, also when it comes to aggregates, you know, and you made a reference to this section 232. So, you know, the crosshairs and screens have been something that have been earlier excluded. And now it seems that they will be included in the tariff. And certainly it will have some impact on aggregates market in the U.S. going forward.

speaker
Vivek Mitta
Citi Analyst

Understood. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Panu Leighton-Mackie from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Panu Leighton-Mackie
Danske Bank Analyst

All right, thanks. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, on the minerals market outlook, how do you see the kind of likelihood of receiving very large orders still in this year? We haven't seen any so far, and it's a bit more than two months left. So do you think it's still likely, or is it more like 2016? And maybe related to that, what is the kind of pipeline or sales funnel for these large projects now compared to what it was like a year ago, for example?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yeah, thank you. Very good question. And this is something that we also are very interested to get the answers. But the unchanged situation, how we read the customer negotiations and discussions, meaning that there are these projects they are there they are having a lot more tangible way of discussing meaning that there is already customer organizations for the greenfield projects and so forth and that's answer maybe for your second question that this is something that we see as a difference for one year or two year ago that there's more concrete tangible um actions happening already at the customer side and then um we remain in the same same view that we have had uh 2026 uh is is almost like a guaranteed that these orders start to come through and uh still uh staying staying on a positive that um one um two might be even coming at the end of this year. But as you said, the clock is ticking and there is two months to go. So that remains to be seen. But then beginning of 26, definitely.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

From a split point of view, these are gold and copper projects that are more advanced in our pipeline.

speaker
Panu Leighton-Mackie
Danske Bank Analyst

Okay, let's hope for that. Secondly, I wanted to ask about the aggregates and the European outlook. You talk about European recovery. Can you talk a bit more about what you see, which countries are driving this? Is it the German infrastructure package already or what is driving this?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

We believe that the German infra packets actually had an impact. The orders that we have been receiving in the last two quarters, they are not so much from Germany, but that decision created the trust in the European countries close by for the future. So the orders are coming from multiple countries in Europe and they are related to

speaker
Panu Leighton-Mackie
Danske Bank Analyst

infrastructure projects in those countries moving forward and then the customers making the equipment orders to be ready to serve what they have promised to serve okay thanks I have a third one if I may on minerals aftermarket so really good growth in orders obviously from the service projects but If you take that out, how has the kind of underlying spare parts, spare parts business growth developed? Is it like at the same level or has that accelerated significantly?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

No major changes there. We have seen already a long time solid good single digit growth for that what we call day-to-day spare parts and consumables and service orders. So that continues the same way also in the Q3.

speaker
Panu Leighton-Mackie
Danske Bank Analyst

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from David Farrell from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
David Farrell
Jefferies Analyst

Hi, morning base. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I'll go one at a time. First question relates to aggregates. I was wondering in terms of the 9% organic auto intake growth, what percentage of that is related to tariff-related surcharges on your U.S. business? Can you kind of unpick that element for us, please?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Thanks, David. Very, very good question. I mean, a small part is from that factor, but I mean, it's not very material. I mean, I'm afraid we can't quantify it, but that's the way to look at it.

speaker
David Farrell
Jefferies Analyst

Okay. Then my second question relates to the minerals margin. It looks kind of Like the increase in OE revenue and the impact that has on absorbing fixed costs probably played quite an important role in driving the margin up. Yet, if I look at the book to bill for OE so far this year, we're below one times. Is there a risk that that is a bit of a headwind as we think about 2026 margins that you simply don't have the OE levels that you had this year and therefore margins will face an incremental headwind?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

David, good question there. I mean, we are not thinking that way. I think when it comes to minerals capital, you know, book to bill, we have basically sold a similar amount as we have gotten orders this year. And obviously, you know, some of the orders that we are receiving now in the fourth quarter, they will still play a role also, you know, in 2020. 26 sales delivery. But, you know, under the assumption that we continue to get healthy order book built during the fourth quarter, maybe some of those larger projects moving forward that we discussed earlier. So we don't see that situation. And then obviously, you know, the already this year and also going forward, when we look at within minerals, there is quite different situation in the underlying business lines. Some of them are more busy than the others. And that's also the reason you may have seen that we announced or understudied some labor discussions earlier this month just to adjust our capacity in some of the business lines where we have less work currently.

speaker
David Farrell
Jefferies Analyst

Okay, thanks very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Vas Panavari from Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Vas Panavari
Barclays Analyst

Yes, good afternoon, gentlemen. It's Vlad from Barclays. I'll ask three questions, if I may, and go one by one. Firstly, could you give us some maybe initial idea what directional sales growth outlook could we have for 2026? On one hand, community prices are super supportive. But on the other, book to build slightly below one-biz quarter, backlog broadly flat. Do you think you could grow next year top line in line with strategic targets which you recently released, or it will be some kind of different phases here?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yeah, Vlad, excellent question. And you know also that we are not in a position to give such guidance. However, what we can confirm is that our target is to grow 7% K car going forward. And with that, the clock starts ticking 1 January next year. And we are working hard day in and day out to make sure that we can grow. If I look across the portfolio from 1 January onwards to end of September, our order book has increased by 200 million, or 180 million to be specific. So that gives us a much stronger starting point for next year compared to the starting point that we had when we entered 2025. Excellent.

speaker
Vas Panavari
Barclays Analyst

That's great to hear. And if I could ask you on the consolidation point, the changes you have made this quarter, I appreciate you are not giving the precise numbers for Q3. Would you be able to give us some idea what was the impact on the orders? Because orders for this business that you're consolidating has been super volatile. I think in the comparative quarter, it was almost no orders Q3 last year. Any color you can give us here would be very helpful.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yes, I can comment on that order specifically. So it was a very low order number also in the third quarter this year. So the order growth is certainly not driven by this MCB business.

speaker
Vas Panavari
Barclays Analyst

Excellent. And the final one from me. On the inventory trade receivables, obviously they are optically up sequentially this quarter compared to what we saw before. Is it largely driven by the game, the consolidation scope that you've done, or there are some underlying changes there as well?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yes, thanks Vlad. The consolidation change, for example, in inventory terms has some tens of millions impact on our inventories, i.e. increasing when we brought the MCP business back from discontinued to be part of the normal business, so to say. and and then you know what we see overall happening in the underlying inventories is that we continue to decline the finished product inventories and um if i if i look one one level below um you know the balance sheet that we publish the finished products have continued to decline from end of june to end of september order of magnitude 50 million And then we see a bit growth in the other areas, which is working process and then raw materials. And you may remember that this 200 million inventory program that we completed by end of June this year, that was really focused on finished goods. And then we continue on that journey. And overall, both inventory were trade receivables, but then the larger working capital continues to be a focus area going forward.

speaker
Vas Panavari
Barclays Analyst

Wonderful. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from William Mackey from Kepler Shoebrew. Please go ahead.

speaker
William Mackey
Kepler Shoenherr Analyst

Good afternoon. A couple of questions. Firstly, could you perhaps talk a little about the pricing environment and the price realization you've achieved across minerals and aggregates in Q3? in your efforts to fully offset any other remaining inflationary pressures. And secondly, against the review in minerals of the backlog up and the orders strong in the smaller and conversion business, can you talk a little to the seasonality of the business revenue realization in the fourth quarter? Historically, there has been seasonality. What should we think about the Q4 versus Q3 in this year regarding your bookings and realization of revenues off backlog? Thank you.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Thank you, William. I can take the pricing one. Two segments. In the minerals side, we see very little pushback for our pricing, so we use our pricing power. where we see that applicable and that part is working okay. There is some discussions with the customers when they are not sure when they will be ready to release the orders for the capital side to get the price validity longer than we usually do and so far we have not gone that route. Then in the aggregate side, it is a little bit more the current situation in the markets under pressure. So there it's difficult to use our normal way that the pricing power and that is quite obvious at the moment in the aggregate markets.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

And then, William, when it comes to mineral seasonality overall, you know, in aggregates, we see clear seasonality. For example, third quarter also this year was a slower period compared to some of the other quarters. In minerals, we see much less of that. And, you know, we are delivering, we are completing the projects from our backlog also during the fourth quarter normally. So we don't expect anything specific there. Then, of course, if I compare to third quarter, for example, there is Christmas and there is holiday seasons, and that may have some limited impact, but that's how we see it.

speaker
William Mackey
Kepler Shoenherr Analyst

Thank you. One follow-up, if I may, building on the earlier question regarding the order pipeline in minerals. Can you talk a little to the discussion around the upgrades and modernization pipeline rather than large normally highlighted projects. Do you see the ongoing trend that we've seen in Q3 with exceptional strength continuing in the fourth quarter?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yeah, that's an excellent question. And as you might remember, I was responsible of this business area. And typically, we had the funnel of these upgrades and modernizations six months ago. It was the largest ever in the euro value. So a lot of projects in a very good state of the discussions with the customer. And now we have started to see that they are released. And typically, I'm now referring what has happened in the past. They tend to then follow for one, two, three quartals in a row as a cycle when the customers make these orders. So expectation is that we do see also those orders coming in the Q4 and maybe also Q1.

speaker
William Mackey
Kepler Shoenherr Analyst

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Tor Fangman from Bank of America. Please go ahead. The next question comes from Michael Dopple from Nordea. Please go ahead.

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. I have two questions. I can take them one by one. So just firstly on the aggregate business and what you see there, particularly in the US. If I hear you correctly, you seem to expect Europe to continue to recover into the fourth quarter, but I didn't really catch your views in the US market clearly. Is it so that you see distributed inventory levels currently at normal levels, or do you also expect some restocking effects there? Have you seen any negative impact of tariffs thus far, or is it just an expectation that it might come? Just a bit of a clarification on how you see the demand in the U.S.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Thank you. I try to open that little bit up. We have not seen yet, but what we look is the distributor inventory levels. And from that perspective, it supports that the business that we see coming from the US would be the normal as the levels are not over high as they used to be one year ago, for example. Then on the other hand, there is a risk that the new tariff included price levels of equipment and also parts might have an impact on how the end customers are evaluating their investment timing. Are they doing it now or expecting to look a little bit later? and even might have some challenges to fulfill the business plans with the new pricing coming through. So these two are both there and giving this little bit uncertain situation, if I put it this way. The other one is supporting that the business continues normally, and the other one is putting a little bit of the dark clouds out there.

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much. Take a question related to the mining business and maybe the project pipeline you talked about. Just wondering if I'm not wrongly remembering things. I think there should be a bit of a tail still left, for example, from the Uzbekistan fairly large copper smelting order you got back in 2024. There might also be some other data from other bigger projects. I assume when you talk about larger projects, you are not referring to these ones. But if you could, maybe just give an update on the ones that you have won but haven't yet gotten all the orders from the bigger ones.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yes, so first of all, Mikael, you have understood it the right way. So when we spoke earlier about the larger projects, so we were talking about future orders, which we have not yet seen and our expectation when they will realize, etc. Then when it comes to the sort of existing pipeline, you are indeed correct that there is There is the Uzbekistan project, Alamaluk, which is ongoing. And there is also a number of other, not only tales, but activities from the past, which are under delivery. And they are moving forward as per the plans. And then from financial statements point of view, we recognize revenue based on the percentage of completion. Typically, it takes quite some time from the order until we start deliveries because of either engineering needs to go forward or if that is done, then just manufacturing activities with some of this equipment takes quite some time. And then the local construction projects also, they are not small by nature, so you know, could be 24, 36 months from the order until we are complete with our deliveries. But yeah, that's part of the backlog realization that we see every quarter.

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

Oh, that's perfect. Maybe just a follow-up on that. So what is the reason, I mean, why the test from Uzbekistan is not coming through? It's a question about the progress on site, which is slow, or is it financing, or is it anything else? Just wondering, you know, when we should expect that one to... Mikael, which way are you thinking?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Because, I mean, the project execution is moving forward, and we are realizing revenue and so forth. How are you thinking about this?

speaker
Michael Dopple
Nordea Analyst

No, I think there should be still some order value left from... Have you already received everything?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

No, I mean, there is further potential on this and some of the other cases, but, you know, we cannot really comment single customer cases in such manner.

speaker
Panu Leighton-Mackie
Danske Bank Analyst

All right. Well, that's fair. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Edward Hussey from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Hi, Simon Hussey. Can you hear me now? Hello?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yeah, Edward, we can hear you.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Okay, cool. Yeah, sorry about that earlier. Just sticking to the rebuild and modernization theme. So first question is just on the order side, my understanding is that the comps in Q4 were also extremely weak. So should we expect to see a similar growth rate on the rebuild and modernization side in Q4?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Yeah I said that these ones are those aftermarket orders that are not super critical from the timing perspective and that's also the reason why they have this cyclic element so we do have now we got the orders we are happy of those they were expected that they start to come during this year we also expect that we see some of a similar way coming through in the Q4 But fully to be able to estimate or quantify the amount is challenging because they do not have this criticality the same way as other aftermarket products.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Okay, thanks.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Sorry, you are right that it's a weak comparison point in the Q4. We did not see these orders last year in Q4.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then maybe just thinking about the mix in orders. I mean, when you think about these rebuild and modernization orders, do they make up

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

sort of normalized mix in q3 or are they still below what you'd consider a normalized mix i would say that when when looking the backlog for example so so they they look normal and then orders that we are expecting, once again, difficult to really estimate very accurate way that how much we will get those, but I would say that they are normal, if something.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful. And then final question just on this theme is just on the revenue side, clearly it seems to be margin accretive from the aftermarket business. In terms of the revenue mix, the rebuild and modernizations, are these at normalized levels now? Or could we potentially see a sort of acceleration in rebuild and modernization revenues in Q4 and therefore support from a margin perspective?

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Generally, I can comment that much that upgrades and modernizations for us, they are good and very healthy business when it comes to the margins. So they are in a good level from our sales mix perspective.

speaker
Edward Hussey
UBS Analyst

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Tor Fangman from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Tor Fangman
Bank of America Analyst

Hi, sorry. Can you hear me now? Yes, we can. Perfect. Thank you so much. Sorry for before. I had a bit of tech issues and cut out sometimes. So excuse me if this was asked before. Just one more question from my side. The aggregates margin has recovered quite nicely quarter on quarter, despite the lower revenues total and also like in equipment itself. I was expecting before that the main kicker for a margin improvement would be basically the volumes coming back for the cost absorption. So what would you say is the reason now, quarter on quarter, with the margin recovery that we've seen? Thank you.

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

Yeah, it's a good question. And Tuure, you may remember that overall we had some extra costs in the second quarter. And while, of course, minerals is the one carrying larger share, aggregate was also impacted. And from that angle, situation has normalized. And overall, you know,

speaker
Tor Fangman
Bank of America Analyst

not only in aggregates but but generally we had um sort of a good cost control quarter and that helped also aggregate to deliver the margins they did okay and just as a brief follow-up if i remember correctly then the main part that could have impacted um aside from the the the ramp up of the production cost would have been the erp system rollout in q2 Or am I missing out something here? And then when you say good cost control, is this something that you would then expect to continue into Q4? Is it like basically structurally now better cost control? Or is it a little bit more by circumstance that we're better cost control in Q3?

speaker
Pasi Schyckling
CFO

I mean, I was mainly referring to the extra costs, i.e. ERP that we had in the second quarter. And like we said three months ago, that was one of costs. Those have not repeated third quarter. And, you know, from cost performance point of view, our expectation is to remain in a similar position going forward. Great. Thank you.

speaker
Juha
Head of Investor Relations

All right. There seems to be no further questions. So we are able to wrap up this conference call well in time. Thanks again for listening. Thanks again for asking questions. We'll be back with our fourth quarter full year results on February 12th next year. But in the meantime, we're sure to meet many of you on the road and different events during the remainder of this year. Looking forward to that. And now we say thanks again and goodbye.

speaker
Sami Takaluoma
President and CEO

Thank you.

speaker
Juha
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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