Prosiebensat1 Media U/Adr

Please stand by. We're about to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our Q3 in nine months 2024 conference call of ProSieben Sat1 Media SE. This conference is being recorded. Today's call is hosted by Mr. Dirk Voigtlander. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to ProSieben Sat1's Q3 2024 results conference call, also from my side. Today's conference call will be hosted by Martin Miltner, CFO of Proceedment Set 1. As always, Martin will first take you through the group's financial and operational performance of the first nine months. He will conclude his presentation with comments on our outlook for the full year. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. With these opening remarks, I now hand over to Martin.

Thank you, Dirk. Dear ladies and gentlemen, also from my side, a warm welcome to our Q3 analyst conference. Before we go into detail, let me give you a quick overview of our financial performance. In the first nine months, group revenues increased by 3% to €2,656,000,000. This reflects a solid performance in the entertainment segment, as well as the dynamic growth of our commerce and venture segment. However, in light of the demanding economic environment, entertainment advertising revenues in the DACH region declined by 6% in the third quarter. On the other hand, commerce and venture segment revenue grew by 19% in the first nine months, therefore compensating for the 13% revenue decline of the dating and video segment. Our adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% to 267 million euros in the first nine months. reflecting the group's revenue growth and cost savings, which more than compensated the increase in programming costs. In terms of our outlook for the full year, we confirm our targeted range for revenues and adjusted EBITDA. Due to the weaker development of TV advertising revenues in the third quarter and a TV advertising market that has also declined so far in the fourth quarter, we currently expect adjusted EBITDA to be below the targeted amount of 575 million euros. I will share more details about the outlook at the end of this presentation. First, however, I would now like to guide you through our financials for the third quarter and the first nine months of the year. In Q3, the general economic uncertainty on ongoing consumer restraint had a negative impact on the advertising market and therefore also on the revenue performance of the ProSiebenSat1 group. In addition, revenues in the dating and video segment decreased notably in a highly competitive environment. Despite the very dynamic and positive development of our commerce activities, the group therefore recorded a slight decline in revenues of 1% to 882 million euros. However, in organic terms, this means on a portfolio and currency adjusted basis, group revenues remain stable compared to the previous year. For the first nine months period, group revenues totalled €2,656,000,000, an increase of 3% compared to the previous year. The dynamic growth of the digital and smart advertising revenues in the DAF region and the significant increase in revenues in the commerce and venture segment were the main drivers of this development. The group's adjusted EBITDA decreased by 6% to 104 million euros in the third quarter. In addition to lower revenues in the high-margin TV advertising business, this development is also due to the decline in revenues in the dating and video segment, which is operating in a challenging and highly competitive environment this year. In the first nine months of the year, however, adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% to €267 million. This positive earnings development is a result of the Group's revenue growth across a large part of its portfolio, as well as consistent cost management, in particular targeted cost measures implemented last year. Adjusted net income for the third quarter amounted to 31 million euros. For the nine-month period, adjusted net income increased to 63 million euros, helped by an improved financial result and tax effects. Adjusted operating free cash flow decreased to 25 million euros in Q3. This reflects, among other things, the weaker earnings development in the third quarter of 2024. In addition, there was a growth-related increase in working capital at Flaconi due to its strong business development. By contrast, the adjusted operating free cash flow improved significantly over the nine-month period, amounting to €129 million. In addition to the increase in earnings, the positive effects here were mainly due to the postponement of investments and programming assets to the fourth quarter of 2024. Now let's turn to page 7 and take a closer look at our entertainment business. The entertainment segment revenues declined by 3% to 579 million euros in the third quarter. For the first nine months period, however, the segment recorded a 2% increase in revenues. The main reason for the decline in revenues in the third quarter were the European Football Championship and the Summer Olympics. Both sporting events led to an expected decline in audience share and therefore in TV advertising revenues, as both events were broadcast by public broadcasters and partially also by RTL. In addition, the German economy and in particular private consumption, which is relevant to our advertising business, did not develop as positively as economic institutes had predicted it at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, our digital and smart advertising revenues in the DACH region increased by 1%. This was driven by a 15% increase in award revenues from the streaming platform JOIN, which also partially offset the losses of the advertising platform solutions business, such as Glomax and eSOM, which are also included in digital and smart. The high-margin distribution business continued its steady growth in Q3 with revenues up by 11%. The following factors contributed to this encouraging result. The increase in reach in both free-to-air and pay-TV channels. The strong growth in HD subscribers on digital platforms, bringing the total number of HD subscribers to 13.7 million households at the end of September. The continued expansion of our video and demand services join and new partnerships such as Together with Sky Deutschland. Adjusted EBITDA in the entertainment segment increased by 2% to 87 million euros in the third quarter. Consistent cost management and increased revenues from the distribution and content businesses compensated for the decline in high margin advertising revenues in the DACH region. At the same time, the group temporarily reduced its programming costs during the summer months in the context of the major sports events. In the first nine months, adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% to €203 million, despite higher programming expenses driven by the positive revenue development in the first half of the year. Please now turn to page number eight, where we are now coming to our commerce and venture segment. The commerce and venture segment increased its third quarter revenue by 20% year-on-year to €218 million. For the nine-month period, this represents a 19% increase. Almost the entire portfolio contributed to this continued positive performance. Our advertising business, i.e. our media for equity and media for revenue business, with seven ventures and seven growths, achieved a strong revenue increase of 19% in Q3. The digital platform and commerce businesses generated revenues of 189 million euros, up 20% year on year. The main revenue driver was the beauty and lifestyle vertical with Flaconi. Compared to last year, the vertical grew by 33% in the third quarter, despite the deconsolidation of Stylight at the beginning of February. In the previous year, Stylight still contributed 3 million viewers to third quarter revenues. The consumer advice vertical, with Verivox as the main revenue driver, achieved a revenue increase of 7%. The segment adjusted EBITDA benefited from the growth in revenues in the third quarter and showed a strong increase of 55%. On a nine-month basis, adjusted EBITDA tripled, increasing by 28 million euros to 42 million euros. In addition to the revenue development, the disposal of Regiondo in June 2023 had a positive impact. Let's now have a look at the performance of dating and video on page 9 of the presentation. The dating and video segment continued to face very strong competition. Revenues declined by 21% in the third quarter and by 13% in the first nine months of the year. The dating business was hit hard by the decline in revenues at eHarmony due to the increased competition in the U.S. At the end of September, we took a number of countermeasures to counteract this development by retraining comprehensive AI models within our customer journey. This has helped us to optimize our customer intake across channels and to rescale marketing activities across channels. The video business also suffered from the highly competitive market environment and recorded a revenue decline of 20% in the third quarter. The negative revenue trend also led to a 39% decline in adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2024. In addition, we made further investments in the video business to attract streamers from competing platforms to join our live streaming ecosystem. While this weighed on the profitability, these incentives have improved the competitive position of our applications in a dynamic market environment. Let me continue with comments on the financial leverage and net debt development on page 10. At the end of the third quarter, the Group's net financial debt amounted to €1.609 billion, which represented an improvement of €166 million compared to the end of Q3 of last year. This is mainly due to the positive development of adjusted EBITDA. Compared to the end of last year, The reported increase in net financial debt is mainly due to the group's cash flow development and its usual seasonality. As you know, the fourth quarter is usually the strongest quarter in terms of free cash flow development. Due to the growth in adjusted EBITDA, the financial leverage ratio improved to 2.7 times at the end of the third quarter and is therefore within the targeted range of 2.5 to 3 times for the financial year 2024. On the right side of the chart on page 10, you can see also the debt maturity profile of ProSiebenSat1. As it shows, we use various debt financing instruments for the purpose of the group financing. This group financing is on a continuous basis under our review with respect to the optimization of volumes and maturities. So let us now continue with our operational update. Overall, the macroeconomic environment in Germany has been stagnating in recent years. While we still saw positive GDP growth in 2022, the past two years have been challenging as the chart on the left-hand side shows. In 2024, the German economy also developed weaker than economic research institutes expected at the beginning of this year. The latest estimates suggest a slight GDP decline in 2024. Several factors played a role here. rising interest rates from mid-2022 to early 2024, ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, and big structural shifts in areas like decarbonization, digital transformation, and increasing competition from Chinese players. These changes have put additional pressure on industrial companies and our home market. On top of that, private consumption, a key driver of our TV advertising revenues, has not shown the growth we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Despite rising real incomes and falling inflation, consumer spending continues to remain limited as the tendency to save remains high. Looking at the development of the TV advertising market on the right-hand side of the chart, it is clear that the German TV advertising market was much more affected by macroeconomic challenges than other European countries. Compared to the Western European average, which includes the larger TV advertising markets of the UK, France, Italy and Spain, and compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019, the German TV net advertising market shows a gap by around 14 percentage points. This takes into account that, according to our own market model, the German linear TV net advertising market will decline by around 3% year on year in 2024. Comparing the German TV advertising market with the average of the Eastern European TV advertising markets, the gap is even wider. However, we expect the digital video advertising market to grow by 21% year-on-year. While the growing digital video advertising business will partially offset the expected decline in TV advertising revenues, we now expect a low single-digit percentage decline in entertainment advertising revenues in the DACHG region due to a weaker second half of the year, especially in the important upcoming or more precise, ongoing fourth quarter. Let us now take a look at our audience share development. As expected, our audience shares improved again toward the end of the third quarter and even increased further in October. Therefore, it is now recovering from the decline during the months of the European Football Championship and the Summer Olympic Games. Our two main channels, ProSieben and Sat1, have played a key role here, especially in recent weeks. In fact, our programming investments in ProSieben, including new lineups, additions like TV Total Spezial, Chris Dudasin and Duell um die Geld, will continue to lead to an increase in audience shares. Meanwhile, Sat1 has reinforced its daytime and access time performance through a mix of new and established formats, creating an appealing primetime lineup. Overall, we are very satisfied with this development. To maintain and improve our ratings performance, we continue to invest in attractive content. In the fourth quarter, we have a strong lineup for both linear TV and join. This includes popular shows like The Taste on Sat.1, Joko & Klaas gegen ProSieben on ProSieben, and join originals like Skeks. Our goal is to stabilize linear market shares while driving joint growth with hybrid content and exclusive original programs. Besides, we also extended our first look deal with TYPA concepts as well as our collaboration with Heidi Klum on Germany's Next Top Model for several more years. Heidi Klum's recent win of the Blauer Panther TV and Streaming Awards for the 19th season of Germany's Next Top Model underscores the strength of the show and the importance of continually investing in content. These efforts align with our programming strategy to enhance and integrate local and live content across our platforms. A key highlight of enhancing our content in recent months was also the launch of our new Newstime studio at our new campus in Unterföhring. The studio covers 220 square meters and is equipped with state-of-the-art technology, including a 70 square meter curved LED wall, three additional movable LED walls and more. This setup offers maximum flexibility and a unique viewing experience. It is one of the most modern studios in Europe. Since October, all news time programs from Sat.1, ProSieben, Kabel1 and JOIN have been produced and broadcast from this state-of-the-art studio. The studio complex is also the first part of ProSieben Sat.1's new company headquarter in Unterföhring, which has been put into operation. This move marked a major milestone for us. It reinforces our commitment to delivering timely, high quality and reliable news to a broad audience. The second part of our new campus is still under construction and should be completed by the end of next year. Once a new campus is fully completed, we also anticipate to improve our free cash flow from 2026 onwards. Now let's talk about the center of our digital activities, our streaming platform JOIN. JOIN continued to grow in the third quarter. We once again experienced significant growth in all our APIs. Monthly video users increased by 62% compared to the previous year, reaching now around 6.8 million users. Video view time in minutes grew by 44% to 9 billion minutes compared to the previous year. Our advertising-based video on demand revenues increased by 15% in the third quarter compared to last year. We are very satisfied with the strong growth of JOIN. The development confirms our strategic focus on JOIN as an ad-supported streaming model and the expansion of our digital entertainment portfolio. Looking at our commerce and venture segment, we see that both our comparison portal Verivox and our online beauty provider Flaconi continue to grow. In fact, they experienced a CAGR growth of 7% and 20%, respectively, in just under five years. Verivox continued to benefit from the recovery in the energy market. In the third quarter, revenues increased by 9% compared to the previous year. On the other hand, Flaconi grew by 38% in the third quarter compared to the previous year. It thereby even outperformed the strong growth already experienced in the first two quarters of this year. As part of our strategy focus on the entertainment business, we announced the evaluation of a potential disposal of our non-core assets in April. These also included Verivox and Flaconi. We can say at this point that we are in a good and constructive discussion with potential builders. However, we hope you will understand that we are not yet able to provide more detailed information at this point about the ongoing process and the future results. Let me conclude the presentation with our financial outlook for 2024. Overall, we have completed the first nine months in line with our targets for the full year, even though the TV advertising market declined in the third quarter. Accordingly, we continue to target group revenues of around 3.95 billion euros in 2024, with a variance of plus minus 150 million euros. This takes into account a decline in entertainment advertising revenues in the German-speaking region in a low single-digit percentage range. On the other hand, we expect the strong revenue momentum in the commerce and venture segment to continue and to more than offset an expected revenue decline in the dating and video business. We are also confirming the target range for adjusted EBITDA forecast at the beginning of the year with a variance of plus or minus 50 million euros based on a target value of 575 million euros. However, due to the decline in high-margin TV advertising revenues in the third quarter and the TV ad market decline also in the fourth quarter to date, the group currently expects an adjusted EBITDA below the target of 575 million euros. The outlook takes into account the expenses associated with the programming offensive, which, despite the offsetting saving effects of efficiency measures, will have a negative impact on adjusted EBITDA but will sustainably strengthen growth in the entertainment business. With regard to the development of the adjusted operating free cash flow in the current financial year, we expect a development comparable to that of the adjusted EBITDA and a value roughly in line with the previous year. This being said, we would like to ensure you that we will continue to work hard on the execution of our strategy and to focus on a further optimization of the group's cost structure. Thank you for your attention. I'm now looking forward to your questions.

Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. If you are in the event via the web interface and would like to ask a question, simply type your question in the ask a question box and click send. Again, that was star one for any questions. We will move first to Julian Rock with Barclays.

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is, can we have some more colors on the ad trends in Q4? I understand you gave us a low single digit for the full year, but you already have October, November, and then maybe a range for December. That's my first question. The second question is on free cash flow. You mentioned in your remark an improvement from 26 onwards, unless I misunderstood. So why not 25 if the campus is finished? And what was the cash cost of the campus this year and maybe last year? That's the second question. And then the last question is on page 16, you give us the video view time of JOIN, could we get the total viewing across all the ProSieben channels in any format, i.e. linear and on-demand? Thank you.

Good morning, Julian, and good morning to the others as well. I'm starting with your first question, probably for you the most important question regarding our view on the air trends in the Q4. Let me say it's really difficult to judge. You know that we already said that during the first two quarters we had a really good development, and then we saw a decline in the Q3. And during October and November, I would think that it is fair to say that the development is nearly the same as in Q3. But nevertheless, and you know that December is for us really, really important, not only from the bookings from the agencies, but also from the add-on bookings, which are really dependent on every year. And they could be really high. And therefore, this is the reason why it's probably for us too early to judge how the December will develop. And therefore, if we have much more clarity on this, and this is probably sometimes only in December due to the ad bookings, we have a better view on it. But so far, we clearly see the same trend in the first weeks in Q4 as it was in Q3. Sorry, with respect to your question of the free cash flow and why it's only starting in 2026, I think this is mainly related to our investments in our new building, the new campus, and this is still ongoing in 2025, and it's always in a single digit number, sorry, mid-double digit number, and therefore the cash flow development will turn in a different direction from 2026 onwards. With respect to the JOIN figures, I think I will hand over to Dirk, who has much more clarity on the numbers there, after the comma as well.

Yeah, good morning, Julian. As you know, we are currently not reporting the total video view time for the group as a whole. However, we are disclosing this already for JOIN, and you have seen that we have seen significant increase in terms of the consumption of JOIN. The digital platforms in total have contributed about mid single digit percent contribution to the total video view time, so it's still a long way to go to have a bigger impact on the total consumption. However, given the significant double digit percent increases we have seen on JOIN, we think we are here definitely on the right path. By the way, just to let you know, total TV consumption has dropped 3% across all households year to date. Due to the sports events in Q3, we have even seen an increase by 3% in Q3 2024. However, in the medium to long term, I think it's fair to say that the TV consumption will continue to decline. But as Martin has already outlined, we are working hard here on a continuing increase of the joint video consumption.

Thank you.

And a reminder, it was star one if you had a question. We'll move next to Conor O'Shea with Kepler Chevro.

Yes, thank you for taking my questions. Three questions from my side as well. Firstly, just in terms of the advertising, in terms of your comments about December add-ons being potentially very high, I mean, is there any reason for you believing that that would be the case this year? I think usually you say between 0% and 10%, an average of 5%. In add-ons, is there any reason to believe that that would be above average this year as opposed to average or below average for December? That's the first question. Second question, in terms of other advertising lines, rest of world advertising revenues declined in Q3. Can you just give a little bit of color on that and what you expect from that? for Q4 and also maybe in the digital advertising within the dock, which slowed significantly in Q3. Again, is that a sports event impact on rival channels? And then the final question, just in terms of the programming cost shift into Q4 tactically to avoid the strong lineup on rival channels in Q3. Can you just remind us how much that is, the shifts from Q3 to Q4? Thank you.

Conor, thanks for your questions. Regarding your first question on the advertising and our view for the add-on bookings, I think, and we show this also in our presentation on slide 12, the uncertainty in the advertising market in Germany is as high as we probably never see this before, at least not for a long, long time. And this is also reflected in all the negative news around, for example, Volkswagen, but also with respect to our government and the change in the government. And what we are seeing is probably some kind of slight stabilization in the mood. And therefore, it is really hard to predict whether our assumptions for the add-on bookings are the same as during the past years. It could be that they are lower, but it could be also if you have some kind of light at the end of the tunnel, and this is sometimes happening really fast, that it could be even higher than during the past years. And therefore, this is the reason why we are currently saying it is much too early, and it could also happen during December only that the momentum will be there. And, you know, also the Christmas business is not only before Christmas but also after Christmas. And, therefore, it is really too early to judge for us. In fact, the December is quite, quite important. And maybe just one additional comment on your second question, which is also related to it. Even if we see some decline in the TV advertising market, We see from, I would say, September onwards to October and now also in November really a strong growth, not only in viewing time on join, but also reflecting this viewing time in the monetization of our formats on join. And there we see a much stronger growth than in the months before. And this is also compensating a decline in the TV advertising market so that we are still believing that even under these uncertainties, that probably our revenues in the entire entertainment segment will be more or less flat compared to the last year. And if you then look on the EBITDA, it is clear that we have the higher program costs. Some of them are compensated with the savings savings. But the higher program costs are clearly impacting the EBITDA. And therefore, even with the flat revenue, we have some lower EBITDA. With respect to the program investment shift, I think I will hand over to Dirk.

A quick comment here on the program CAPEX. You might have seen that we have seen even a decline in terms of programming CAPEX in the first nine months of 2024. This, however, is, as we mentioned, partly due to the seasonal shift. We don't expect programming CAPEX to be below prior year level on a full year basis, which means there will be a mid to high double-digit million-euro amount increase in programming CAPEX in Q4. However, please keep in mind that when you look at the last 12-month development in terms of the free cash flow, given this shift of programming, we could even achieve a free cash flow north of 200 million euros despite the capex solid campus and despite the restructuring expenses we had in the first half. So on a fuller basis, however, you can expect some normalization here in terms of free cash flow development because of this increase in programming capex in Q4.

Okay, very clear. And on rest of world advertising, the decline in the third quarter, can you give us a little bit of color on that, please?

I think there we rather expect a flat to slightly positive development in Q4. But there is no meaningful deviation from the trends we have seen in the first nine months.

Okay, great. Thanks, Jack.

We'll go next to Nizlan Azir with Deutsche Bank.

Great. I hope you can hear me. I have two questions. The first is on, as you mentioned, sort of the demand consumer or the macro environment impacting consumer spending and taking an effect on what you're seeing in terms of ad growth. We're hearing other players in the market, like in other formats, like out of home, for example, still talking about growth in Q4. So maybe could you give us some color as to whether you think TV as a format is suffering a lot more Or is sort of the underlying advertising market as a whole shrinking as a result of the macro environment? Some color there would be great. Secondly, the strong growth in Flaconi. Could you remind us again, has this been profitable growth? Is Flaconi still being run at break-even levels with a lot of promotional activity? And would this continue to be the case in Q4? some color there on the profitability profile of Flaconi and maybe very Voxel would be great. Thank you.

Lisa, first of all, good morning. And I will start with your second question coming to our beautiful site at the moment in our business. So first of all, we think from an entire commerce and venture segment, we are probably able this year to reach the first time in the history of commerce and ventures turnover of more than 1 billion or roughly 1 billion. So this is a great success of the segment. And if you're looking on the EBITDA side, it is clear that it is getting more and more profitable, especially on the Flaconi side. Flaconi is probably hitting the 500 million turnover and increase their expectations on the ABTA. And it is clearly that, and if you look on the website, it's clear that this is not driven by discounts or whatever. It's a good, good management, which we now hired and have for two years on board with Bastian Siebert. And they are really working not only on the revenue growth, but also on the EBITDA development. There we see even better margins than last year. So it is really not bought revenues. It's clearly they're working on both on the revenue side but also on the margin side. And the same is Verivox. They are also developing quite, quite good. And please remember that they developed already in the last year with a high, high revenue growth. And even this year, they can continue with their growth story. On the first question, in fact, this is more reflected on the market. I would hand over again to Dirk.

Yeah, good morning, Nisler. I think when you look at the composition of the customer base, I think you referred to Struer's comments this week, They have a much broader customer base with a lot of smaller customers in Germany. I think it's in the five-digit number compared to our customer base, which consists of primarily larger, partly international and also national advertising customers. So therefore, they have in general a more diversified customer base, which makes a difference. But the other thing here is that TV in general is probably a bit more cyclical than the than outdoor advertising. There is a lot more flexibility to react to changes in the underlying development of our customers' business. We also have larger budgets of these individual customers and especially in the fourth quarter where the add-on bookings play a material role in terms of advertising spending. Our customers have a lot of flexibility here to spend. This being said, if our customers face also a tougher development in their business, I think it's very easy for them to react to such developments, which also leads to somewhat higher volatility in our business. When you look at the past, for example, the past four to five years, we have seen that our TV advertising revenues or the German-speaking ad revenues have developed largely in line with underlying macro indicators. And I think also the slide in our presentation shows that the software TV ad market development highly correlates with German GDP development. So I think those are probably the main reasons here why we are seeing software development compared to outdoor.

Thank you, very helpful.

And one final reminder was star one if you had a question. With no other questions holding, I will turn the conference back for any additional or closing remarks.

Okay, ladies and gentlemen, that was our last question for today's call. My colleagues in the Investor Relations team and myself will, as always, be available for any follow-up questions you might have. Thanks everyone for your participation and have a nice day. Bye-bye.

Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.