Pacific Basin Shipping Limited

Welcome to today's Pacific Basin 2025 Third Quarter Trading Update Conference Call. I'm pleased to present Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Martin Fregard, and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jimmy Ng. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. Mr. Fregard, please begin.

Thank you. Yeah, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending Pacific Basin's third quarter trading update call. My name is Martin Forber, CEO of Pacific Basin, and I'm joined by our CFO, Jimmy Ng. At this time, we are with you from our office in Singapore. Assuming you have already gone through the presentation, we will highlight the points discussed in it before we proceed to Q&A. I'll first hand over to Jimmy for a quick overview of the third quarter performance and market performance.

Thank you, Martin. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I will share with you some observations on the market and a snapshot of our business performance for the third quarter. Please turn to slide three. In the third quarter of 2025, 10-size and Supermax market freight rates showed good upward momentum post-Chinese New Year, especially sharply in the Supermax segment. Market spot rates for head size and supermax vessels averaged about $11,600 and $14,300 net per day, respectively, representing a decrease of 1% and an increase of 4% compared to the same period in 2024. The voting average head size FFA for the remainder of 2025 is $13,019 net per day, and the average Superman FFA rate is $14,140 net per day. Please turn to slide 4. In the first nine months of the year, global mined bulk loadings rose 4% compared to the same period last year, mainly driven by bulk sites, fertilizers, mined oils and concentrates. Chinese steel exports were up 10% year-to-date, as demand from emerging markets remains resilient. Bauxite loadings from Guinea into China continue to be strong. If we exclude bauxite loadings, year-on-year growth of minor bulk would be around 3%. Grain loadings, on the other hand, decreased 9% year-on-year. Grain imports to China dropped by 15% on the back of China's record-high domestic harvest. China has switched soybean sourcing from U.S. towards Brazil, at the same time reducing corn purchases. Even so, U.S. grain exports were up 12% year-on-year as they were biased in the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and also Latin America. Next, let me look at coal. Coal earnings reduced 6% year-on-year due to weaker demand from China, South Korea, Taiwan, and India. China's C1 coal imports fell by 15% because of higher stock levels, migration to renewables, as well as overland trade from Mongolia. The drop in imports to North Asia and India was partially offset by increase in coal imports into other emerging Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Finally, on the rightmost column, iron ore loadings also dropped 3% year-on-year, with bad weather impacting Australian imports in the first quarter, as well as a reduction in exports from India. Although Australia has been trying to catch up with its targets in exports, Australian exports were still down 3% year-on-year. India also saw exports dropping by 27% in the third quarter. Please turn to slide 5. Our core business generated average daily TCE earnings of $11,680 for Hennysides and $13,410 for Supramax in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15% for Hennysides and an increase of 10% for Supramax. When compared to the market, our average daily TCE earnings outperformed the BHSI Hennysides index by $90 per day in the period, but we underperformed the BSI Supermax index by $900 per day. This was mainly because of the strong uptick in market rates in the third quarter, especially in the Supermax sector. We typically underperform in fast-rising trade markets due to the time lag between spot market fixtures and 4-H execution. However, when we compare our year-to-year performance with the market, of wage, our average handy size, and Supermax TCE earnings have outperformed by $1,540 and $1,960 per day, respectively. For a four-quarter of 2025, we are currently covered with 72% and 87% of our committed festival days for our handy size and Supermax cost hint at $12,380. and $14,060 per day respectively. In addition to our core business, our operating activity generates a daily average margin of $750 per day, over 6,870 operating days in the third quarter. Our operating activity complements our core business by matching our customers' sports casuals with shops and chartered vessels, making a margin and contributing positively to our results throughout the cycle. I will now hand you back to Martin for market updates and strategies. Thank you.

Please turn to slide 7. Looking at Clarkson's latest forecast for 2025 and 2026, forecast coal and iron ore volume growth continue to be weak. On the other hand, minor bulk and grains are expected to see healthy growth going forward. with especially bauxite, aluminium, manganese ore and scrap steel growth anticipated to remain robust. As you can see, the decreasing coal volumes are mainly due to China. The world's biggest coal consumer already has stockpiled for energy security and is expected to source more coal overnight from Mongolia. Soybean volumes are expected to be strong, with Brazil projected to achieve a record crop in 2025, while China continuing to reduce its reliance on imports. Overall, in the drywall segment that we are focused on, trade volumes are expected to remain resilient. Please turn to slide 8. According to Glaxo's research, the combined global fleet of anti-stress and supermax vessels is estimated to grow 4.3% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026. New building vessel deliveries account for 4.8% and 4.4% in the growth forecast, while scrapping is estimated to remain low with 0.4% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The order book stands at 10.3% of the existing fleet, but new billing ordering dropped by a significant 76% year-on-year, given the concerns arising from the latest decarbonization rules and the ongoing uncertainties in respect to various port fees schemes. Meanwhile, the global fleet of Handicap and Supermax continues to age, with nearly 40% of the ships being 20 years or older. supply past peak growth in 2025, and with supply growth apparently manageable going forward, we remain positive about the might of all supply and demand outlook in the longer term. These terms are 10. Vessel values have remained high since 2021, and we continue to maintain discipline in managing our fleet renewal Our core fleet currently consists of 120 old and long-term charter vessels. During the quarter, we sold one Supermax vessel and exercised the purchase option on one anti-size vessel, which was delivered from our long-term charter fleet into our old fleet. We exercised another purchase option on one Ultramax vessel that is yet to be delivered in the coming months. And we have also taken delivery of two long-term charter Ultramax new buildings Looking ahead, we maintain fixed price purchase options on 13 long-term charter vessels, and in addition, we will take delivery of one Ultramax and one handy-sized long-term charter new building during first half of 2026. Our four low-emission dual-fuel methanol Ultramax new buildings from Japan will be delivered 2028 onwards. Our focus is to strategically renew and grow our fleet and continue to expand our growth optionality. Please turn to slide 11. In preparation for the implementation of new port tariffs, we have taken all required proactive steps within our control to protect our business and possession of the certification to continue serving our global customers freely and competitively across all safe ports and countries, including China and the United States. This includes expanding our Singapore company structure, which holds our Singapore-owned and flagged vessels. We have already transferred several vessels under the initial plan to transfer about half of our own fleet to Singapore ownership and flag. In addition, responsibility for the company is overall and ultimately announced 13th of October for the purpose of compliance with the regulations. Pacific Basin is an independent, publicly listed company with approximately 99% publicly traded shares with no controlling shareholder. As such, the company shares are traded freely every day and are broadly held by investors across the world. Based on public beneficial ownership reports filed in Stock Exchange as of October 15, 2025, The City Basin does not believe that 25% or more of its equity interest is held directly or indirectly by either U.S. or Chinese entities or persons. We do believe the special court fees under both the U.S. and Chinese schemes are not applicable to us. In an abundance of caution, we continue to work with our advisors to analyze the rules and their provisions, while also engaging with authorities to clarify and mitigate any applicability or impact they may have on our company, our business and our operations. For further details, please refer to the third quarter trading update as published to the Stock Exchange website. Please turn to slide 12. Our commitment to returning value to shareholders remains intact. Respect to our share buyback program, We have so far used approximately $26 million out of the announced $40 million to buy back and cancel about $109 million of Phoebe's education shares. That's about 65% of the targeted share-buy-back program completed, and it is our intention to execute the reminder of the program within 2025. Please turn to slide 13. The dry ground market is firm, and while decisionality as well as volatility and uncertainty due to shipping tariffs actions are to be expected, near-term market conditions are expected to benefit from steady on-demand growth and likely increased supply disruption, which would support tighter freight market conditions going forward. Supply fundamentals are also favorable. And overall, the age profile of the global vital bulk fleet, combined with limited new building orders driven by industry uncertainties, suggest a potential structurally undersupply in vital bulk shipping in the future. We are prepared for continuing general macroeconomic and industry uncertainty and volatility, remaining vigilant and nimble to safely navigate the challenges that arise and continue to capture opportunities along the way. Our financial strength, low cash rate even level, agile business model, enhanced growth optionality and the experience of our global team position us very well for the changing market conditions. We thank our customers, our shareholders and advisors for their ongoing loyal support to Pacific Basin and also I'd like to thank our skilled team of colleagues all over the world for their dedicated efforts and hard work dealing with multiple complex external challenges during the year. That concludes our 2025 first quarter trading update presentation. I will now hand over the call to our operators. Operator Q&A.

We will now begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for today's speakers, please join the Zoom link via the blue ask a question button. Press the raise hand button and you will enter a queue. After you are announced, please unmute yourself, state your name and company and ask your question. If you find that your question has been answered before it is your turn to speak, please press the lower hand button to leave the queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. Our third question is from Parash Jain. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.

Thank you, Martin and Jimmy, and congratulations on a good set of data. I would appreciate if you can talk a bit more on the congestion and the disruption related to the poor fatality rate. And help us clarify again, is the headquarter being in Hong Kong does not qualify to be a Chinese corporate? And what measures we have done with respect to these things like

to Singapore.

And hypothetically, if that has to be attractive, if you can share your exposure to the U.S. market as we speak. Thank you so much.

I didn't get the first question.

More with respect to congestion, where are we, which pockets where we are seeing congestion? And particularly because of this retaliatory port tariff. how your peers who are affected by this are coping, and is that creating a congestion?

I don't know if it's creating congestion. I think what we've seen so far, and especially here in the first quarter, is of course that anybody has probably stepped back a little bit from calling the U.S. and sort of trying to think out exactly what could happen. So when you look at the market, the market has actually been since the summer, it has improved quite a lot, and of course, again, it creates some volatility in the market. In respect to our headquarters, maybe we stayed in a little bit of a funny way. We are saying that our strategic leadership and also ultimate commercial management or decision-making, that is now unthinkable, and that's the definition of of your main office or your headquarters. So that has also changed. And in respect to the last part about, was that about the exposure to the U.S. So we, which is only a few days ago, but of course the U.S. has always been about 10% of our business. We are trading both China and the U.S. still and have ships calling calling both places. We have done a lot of work the last four, five, six months, and so many others have also scaled down a little bit on our U.S. trading, but have been focusing mainly on servicing our long-established customers in the area, waiting a little bit to see how the rules would be implemented.

And Martin, maybe I'll take an opportunity to ask one follow-up question. Given the IAO meeting is ongoing in London, what is your expectation? And if it goes through as per plan, what would it do due to the supply dynamics come 2027 for the sector? Presumably, it will be quite beneficial, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

Absolutely. First of all, I think you're predicting what's going to happen at the IWO meeting. That is probably a little bit too much for me to do.

Only two outcome, right? Yes or no?

Yeah, I think maybe three things are just being postponed. That is not the first time that is happening. But I think our wish and our hope is, of course, and we would be proud if shipping could be the first move. I expect to have a regulation of decarbonization. So that is our hope, that the rules are being rectified. I think that would be a good thing. And of course it will be supported to the new buildings that we have in Japan and things we have been doing the last couple of years. And of course it would also start you know, supporting a little bit the green fuels and also, of course, supporting that we have to get different ships into our fleet over time. So I think if they were rectified, so it would be good for the climate, it would be good for our business and, of course, us who are building everything.

Lovely. Thank you so much, and I'll go back and look at you.

The next question is from Chien Naifan. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.

Hi, Martin. Hi, Jimmy. Thank you for taking my question. I think I'll ask a follow-up question following Parash's question. I think his first question was about the potential disruptions from China's port tariffs towards U.S.-linked vessels. We heard from some media reports that There are some vessels already on the sea, but after China announced the new regulation or new port fees, actually those vessels are now waiting outside Chinese ports to clarify whether they need to pay for the port fee or they want to do some like unloading in nearby countries and then transship cargo to China. Have you seen any of these kind of things happening in the market? Do you think that could lead to some disruptions to the overall trade flow and the vessel effective supply? This is the first question. The second question is about the U.S. holding. I think Bloomberg, they have categorized your share stakes by like stakeholders' nationality, I think that data shows you have more than 50% of shares held by U.S. investors. So just want to double confirm when you said your U.S. holding is below 25%. Did you take into consideration of those secondary market investors who might be U.S. investors? And also want to confirm, even if there are more than 25% of U.S. investors, I think you can get an exemption from China as long as you use Chinese-built vessels to ship cargo to China. Is that right?

Yeah, so first question in respect to disruption and, of course, the China integrated similar rules as the U.S. I think we've been so busy following up on our own thing and making sure we are ready for that. So I think there's a lot of rules going on at the moment, but I have to follow up and I don't know about transit and these things. But there's no doubt, of course, that all these things has created some concerns and and normally in our business we all hold back a little bit and I'm sure some people have stopped their ships until they understand exactly how the rules are to be understood. So of course this creates disruption and inefficiencies and that is of course normally very good for our market. So I think it will have a positive impact on the market depending on the overall outcome of all these changes. And yes, the last question you asked, it's also correct that Chinese bill ships seem to be able to call China without any tariffs. I think that has been confirmed. Respectively to the U.S. holding, we've seen different medias and others that are quoting shareholding in Pacific Basin, and I think it's important for us to say that our shares are by custodians and funds and other investment vehicles and I don't think, we do not have access to know who the ultimate owners are of our shares and I don't think anybody else has that and that is the case that we have presented and that is also what we see others in similar situations in the market are saying so I don't think it's possible for anybody to predict or say what our shareholding is on that side. looked at it and of course if there's anybody who has shareholding above 5% they would have to, I think it's called public beneficial ownership, they have to report to the storage chains, the overseas side of it. We looked at all these things and we have concluded that as we see, we do not believe we have anybody above 25% by the Chinese or US.

Got it. So, may I follow up on the question? So, do you have enough Chinese-built vessels in case that you are, like, viewed as a company that over 25% held by the U.S.?

We do, of course, also have Chinese. I think we have 70, 30, I think we have 70% Japanese business and 30% Chinese business. Our vision is still the way we look at it is to be able to trade freely globally to service our customers. So depending on how the rules are, if the rules are changed, we will of course be waiting for that, as we always are, but at the moment we are trading our ships freely both in China and the U.S.

Last question. So your China exposure is also roughly 10%, right?

Yeah, if you look at last year's training, the volume-wise, I think it's volume-decalibrated, it's 10% US and similar in China.

Got it. Thank you very much. I'll go back to the Q&A.

Just a reminder, if you have a question, please join the Zoom link via the blue Ask a Question button. Press the Raise Hand button and you will enter the queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. There are currently no questions.

There's some questions through the Q&A. over the portal. So this question is about the Red Sea opening. So the question is, is Red Sea open now? Is there a reason they go to transit and will the market drop when Red Sea area is back to normal?

We are, of course, following the situation and I think it's still fairly new. One thing we look at as an indicator is the insurance prices and I used to, up until early today, I'd was not informed that there would be any reduction in the insurance premium to transit the Red Sea. And I think it will take some time. I think everyone just wants to see that all this is in a stable situation. And I think the first indicator is that you see insurance premium coming down. I think we said all along that it has an impact, of course, on the supply part. But for minor bulk, for the smaller ships, maybe less. for the bigger ones and probably less than for other sectors like containers and others. But it's clear that if the Red Sea opens up, we will create more supply in the market. But with the number of disruptors we see at the moment, I'm sure something else will happen as well. Something else that has already happened that was taken. take that over. But you're not so worried about that part of it. And we also just like to see that has actually been a dump bot attack on chips not so long ago. I think it will take a little bit of time before things will be up again.

But we'll see.

The next question is from . Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.

Hi, I think maybe if there are not too many people in the queue, maybe I can ask another two questions. So I think the spot market of Handy, Size and Supermax has been much stronger than expected since the quarter to date. what's the reason? I mean, what's driving that rally? And also going forward, if we look at like normal seasonality or also taking into consideration of what's driving the third quarter to date rally, what's the outlook for the rest of the year? And the second question is about outperformance. So I think we have some like, And the performance in Supermax in the third quarter of this year, the outperformance for HandySize remained positive, but slightly narrowed. What's our outlook for our outperformance in the fourth quarter of this year?

Yeah. Good questions. Thank you for those. First of all, the market, of course, from my point of view, demand has actually been positive. We see still a lot of steel out of China and a lot of activity around. Growth has not been as high as the new supply. I think earlier this year we were a little bit nervous about that part of it, but what we've seen during the year on top of actually some positive demand growth, even though it hasn't been as high as the new supply, what we've seen is all these disruptors, they just keep coming and impacting impact in the market and I think that is part of it. So I think the conclusion is that this continues and if you have 1% growth in demand you definitely need more than 1% growth in supply to cover that and I think that's probably a trend we will see going forward. I think the output wise we are, first of all I think we are probably getting a little bit more optimistic about the world economy. Things look maybe a little bit better than they did early in the year. On top of that, I think for the short term, when I talk to the commercial people, the commercial team we have, they are actually quite optimistic about the market for the rest of the year. And, of course, everybody expects there will be the normal seasonality leading up to the Chinese New Year when we get into the new year. The band for some of the minor bolts, check them, looks fine, actually. And you can say supply this year has peaked. Your supply has peaked this year and will be lower next year. So I think fundamentally there is some positive things in the market. But I think we still need these disruptors or these multiple disruptors in the market. But so far in the last couple of years, we have had plenty of those. And it's hard to see a world where they will not continue at the moment. In respect to outperformance, I think as Jimmy said earlier, quite normal that in a market that goes up, we will always sort of run after the market. And what you see this time, especially on the ultras, is that the market in June, sorry, in July, actually went up about 50%. And of course, we fix our shifts forward a month or two. So there will be a delay in that. And very naturally, especially when it increases so fast and so much, We will always, you can call it underperform, but I think we are running after it in trading, trading the market. I used to say to my colleagues, I will defend any day to the market and to the investors if the market continues to go up, that we are not performing or not outperforming a lot. But normally when the markets shift again, then of course we catch up with the market and we start to outperform again. So the answer is I think when you look at the outperforming, The last nine months or the last 12 months, it's a solid output performance, and let's see what the market is doing. I think we will continue to do our performance going forward.

I hope that answers the question.

Yes, yes, indeed. Thank you very much. May I clarify, you said when there is 1% growth in demand, there is more than 1%. like, need of vessels. What's the reason behind that?

I think many things are, but one thing is, of course, that the speed of the ships has increased. This year compared to last year, same period, the speed of the ships is down 2%. And since 2021, the speed of the ships, the airspace speed of the ship is down 6%. And every year since 2021, speed has reduced every year. So I think that is sort of one reason for, of course, you need more supply to compensate for that part. And then on top of it, you have the disruptors. And then, of course, you have to start trading ships differently, maybe more grain out of the city than the U.S. goes. People hesitate to call. Some ships can call U.S., others cannot. So the efficient supply chains, they are broken. And therefore, you know, we probably have to save a little bit longer. And that, of course, takes supply out of the market. And that is a, if it's not the Red Sea or Panama Canal or different wars or congestion on our tariffs, there's plenty of those who would take supply out of the market because of inefficiency.

Got that, got that. So do you think the vessel speed decrease is mainly because environmental, like, policy requirements, or it's because of some other reasons?

Yeah, I think that is definitely because of the decarbonization and the regulation. Also, disruption has also been, we have a lot of ships in dry dock, actually, more than normal. That's a product thing that takes supply out. and also many ships, of course, have equipped their ships with these power limitation devices. So the reality is that that has reduced the speed of the ships that they come out due to compliance with the regulation. So it's actually true that, yes, that has happened. Because when you look at the freight rates, and actually the oil price is actually coming down somewhat. So the logic would, of course, be in a good market with a lower oil price, we would speed up that price. just make economic sense. But that is not happening to the extent that... So that has to be the cause of the decarbonization and the environmental groups.

Fantastic. So you mentioned more ships in the dry docks. It's also because of the regulations?

Under regulations, but also partly, I think, because a number of ships were built at the same time back in probably 2009. It's just a tiny thing.

So you mean that's because of the overall global fleet has been aging?

No, it's actually more because every ship has to go to dock with a certain interval. And if you have one year in the past where many ships would be in the same period, many ships have to go and drive off in the same period here. Got it. Got it.

It's very clear. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

The next question is from Parash J. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.

Sure. Martin, could you also remind us on your CapEx plan for this year, potentially next year? But more importantly, with the improved rates and probably shipyards opening up the capacity for 29 onward and probably container rolls over, do you see the dry milk operators get back to the new-built market, or you think that even despite the improved rate, the returns are not justified to see a surge in new ordering? Thank you.

Yes, so, Prash, I'd probably answer the CapTax question first. So, typically, our CapTax will have certain types of expenditures, and as you know, we are We also will look at a number of our purchase options to see if there is any potential to exercise. But in terms of our cash usage, we also will use some of our cash for share buyback. We covered in the presentation that we set out to do $14 million this year. We have completed $26 million, so there's a remaining $14 million that we would need to complete this year. So that's our basic use of cash. Now Of course, we will maintain a given eye on the second-hand market and also any opportunities to, you know, if there are opportunities for us. But as we said in the presentation, the second-hand market currently, the way we see it, is still at an under-fitted level. So that is something that we need to bear in mind as well. So that's on the CapEx side.

And let's take to it, to it. the yards and new building second-hand prices and so on. What we see right now is, of course, that the second-hand, not of course, but second-hand prices are actually coming up, and I think that is, of course, partly an impact on the short market. And I think people have a little bit more positive view on the future of the market. Of course, at the moment, they are getting close to being able to justify buying a second-hand ship, but I think there's still a little bit of a gap in it, and we have to see how sustainable the rates are, but I think overall people are getting a little bit more positive about the outlook. The new buildings, if you want a new building today, you probably have to say 2028, and I also hear somebody say 2029, but probably in 2028 you can still get new buildings in the minor bulk segment. Prices have come down somewhat. There is a not a lot but it has come down the last year China seems steel prices have been low in China that gives China a benefit compared to Japan on steel costs and therefore they can probably be more competitive on the pricing as we also said earlier the new ordering is down quite a bit compared to last year I think it's clear that the market many of the owners and players in the market has good back machines and I think we are all sitting waiting a little bit for the IMO to make up, hopefully deliver on the decarbonization part and also guide us a little bit on how to do it. And also it is important to say that the yard capacity, also because of minor, also because feet of container ships and so on, which is actually the same size as our ships. Many of the yards would prefer to build those ships. I think the margins, they're not those kinds of ships that are our ships. So there is pressure on the capacity of the yards. So I think in some ways, we sort of always say we are very disciplined in our buying and selling ships. But we also, of course, like to grow. But on the other hand, if We have a core fleet of 120 ships and, you know, increased high asset prices is also good for us. I think what is positive for us at the moment is, of course, also that our gap between fair market value and our share price has also closed quite a bit. So we are probably in a position where we have a nice balance sheet. We have a good share price or better share price at least. We have the LED chips coming in the new buildings. That is something we know. We are waiting for ILO. And then, of course, we have to see what we do and what the shareholders are doing. I hope that answers the question, Josh.

Yes, thank you so much. Have a good day.

There are currently no questions.

Okay. There's one more question. It's on the phone. May I know if the US is trying to put fees if it's possible in the negative sector to the shifting rate and potential company earning impact?

I think definitely in the short term because it does create this disruption or this disruption then of course it has a it would have a positive impact on the market. I think Everybody, including ourselves, we have also asked the US and China for clarification on some of the regulations. We can totally compare with them. Both the challenges we have in reading the agreements and the advice on different things. So there's, of course, a lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment. That, of course, creates this disruption, and that is definitely good for the markets, and that's usually how it works. In the longer run, I have to say, we hope that we are doing, we are transporting, we are living off global trade. So, of course, we have to hope that it doesn't take over and has a negative impact on the global trade, for sure. But in the short term, it's definitely a positive for our market.

Just a reminder, if you have a question, please join the Zoom link via the blue Ask a Question button. Press the raise hand button and you will enter a queue. You may also type your questions in the Q&A box. As there are no further questions, we will now begin closing remarks. Please go ahead, Mr. Martin for God.

Yep. Again, I'd like to thank you again for joining us today and for your continued support to Pacific Basin. If you have further questions, please contact Lula Pong of our Investor Relations Department. Have a great evening and thank you again.

This concludes our conference call. Thank you for all attention.