Piaggio & C Spa Unsp/Adr

Good afternoon. This is the Coral School Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Piaggio First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Raffaele Lupotto, Investor Relations of Piaggio. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the first quarter 2024 financial results. The conference call will be hosted by Piaggio Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Michele Colanino, and Piaggio Chief Financial Officer, Alessandra Simonotto. Today, we are also pleased to have the Piaggio Group Executive Chairman, Mr. Matteo Colanino, with us. You can access the slides supporting this conference call on the Internet at the Piaggio Group website. As you may expect, before starting the presentation, I need to remind you that during today's conference call, we may use forward-looking statements based on Piaggio's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainty, and other factors that could cause actual results to be materially different. As mentioned also in the safe harbor statement included on page three of today's presentation. Also, I remind you that the press has been invited to participate in this conference call in a listening-only mode. With that said, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Michele Conanino.

Thank you, Rafael, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let me give a brief comment to our first quarter results. First of all, I hope that all of you are satisfied about the marginality we have reached, because gaining 3% on the BDA margin quarter on quarter has been a tough job, I can assure you. Now, the goal is to maintain that level to the end of the year, even that As you know, the global situation, especially geopolitical situation, is not showing fair solutions for a world in peace. Having said that, as far as revenues are concerned, I have to say that the decline has been mainly driven by the Asian market, where in the last first quarter of 23, we decided to push a little bit, expecting a forecasting a growth for the entire year of 2023 instead as you know as i have told you many times before asia started to decline in premium consumer business all over the countries since may last year and these has been managed by piaggio you know reducing and rebalancing the dealer stock so to do not have problems at that level uh India instead is showing a good market and I think and we think that it will continue to be good especially after the election period that in India takes two three months to conclude given that it's 1.5 billion people population. Europe the main situation in Europe is a legislative change due to the introduction in 2024 of legislations reducing CO2 emissions and introducing new technologies for passive and active safety on vehicles, both in two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles. I have to say that we do not want to follow the discount market that we see all over the Europe countries because we have to manage properly the correct ratio between sell-in and sell-out considering that if the dealers make margins, good margins, we make good margins. So it will continue all over the year, the situation of controlling sell-in and sell-out, given that the Euro 5 Plus legislations will be developed by the end of 2024. Last but not least, let me tell you something about the debt situation. the debt situation has been influenced by the decision we took to increase our stock of finished products and components due to the uncertainty we have seen and we see on the Red Sea. So we preferred to increase our stocks to be ready to fulfill and answer to any worsening situation on the delivery and transportation side. So this, you know, stock will be reduced by the end of June, I think, because we didn't push too much. But if you analyze the numbers, we had an increase in debt due to this situation, because the working capital has been roughly the same of last year, even with a decline in revenues line. So, from a cash point of view, I'm very satisfied. Productivity remains a driver among the business. And I have to say that e-markets that have declined until now, especially Asia, will start to recover by the end of the year. With those margins, we will be very satisfied and happy. Our estimation is that Asia will do like this. March and April has given us signals of stabilization on the market, and we foresee a slight increase by the end of the year, starting from, let's say, end of May, beginning of June, let's say by the end of the second quarter. We are continuing investing in our brand equity and customer experience all over the world because we think, I think, I'm personally convinced that in a situation like this, having a better experience for our customers and creating a world of brand equity around all our brands, Vespa, Moto Guzzi, Aprilia, Piaggio, and the commercial vehicles in India, is the differentiation that we can create among the markets that are, you know, continuously reducing prices all around the world. We're not doing that. As we are speaking, I have just to say, we are launching the new models for Vespa in Asia, especially in the Shanghai fair. The event is going on now and customers are happy and dealers are happy. The situation of the first quarter, it is a situation where we continued to push for margins, instead following up discounts to gain some revenue. And this is a strategy that is linked to our brand strategy, Learn the World. I've also to say that the launch of the new models, especially the MotoGurus Estelio and the middle engine RS457 Aprilia, has taken us some delay, but because of transportation and logistics. So the bikes have been introduced in Europe, let's say from 15th of March, will be introduced in US by the end of June. Because I repeat, transportation has 20 days more today compared to last year. From a cost side, we do not foresee major issues and major problems. But you know better than me that we are managing a world that can change the day from the other. I personally thought that the situation would have been better from a peace point of view. Instead, it's continuing to be the same situation of the end of last year, let's say last year. So having said that, what we foresee for the future of the company in the year is that we have to maintain those marginalities that are very high. It's not an easy job. because problems are there. We know that, but the forecast that we have from our markets and our CEOs around the world are on that line. This is just a brief introduction of what we had in the first quarter of this year. I repeat to you that there will be perhaps some markets going up, some markets going down, but that's normal. That's normal business. We are pushing to maintain dealers healthy, and marginality. If that is what we will reach by the end of the year, I think that the 2024 year can be a nice year, comparable to the 2023. Now I hand over to Alessandra Simonotto, our CFO, that will explain some details about the numbers we have seen on the presentations, and then I'm happy to answer all the doubt, questions, answer, whatever it is. Alessandra, up to you.

Yes, thank you very much. so i i hope i believe that you have already seen the the flight that we put at your disposal uh today's as usual i i want only to uh strength another time and just uh just mr colino said that uh this this quarter results are the uh the better from a margin point of view that we reach all the time in Piaggio Group. We gained 30.4% as a gross margin, 366 basis points on first quarter 2023. We gained 279 basis points on EBITDA, 16.6% on quarter 2024 against 14.9 in 2023, the best results we had until today. The same is for EBIT, where we are now at 9.7 against 8.2 in 2022. And also from a cash flow point of view, we don't have any specific impact of the situation we managed from a revenue point of view, because as you can see, the absorption is more or less the same we had last year, and it's clearly connected to these externalities that we normally face in this moment. Going to, I don't know if you prefer to go ahead some question and answer or if you prefer to comment on the other slides. I'm at your disposal.

Raffaele, what do you think? I think that we understand already the key points and In order to make this call very quick, we can also jump directly to the Q&A section. Okay?

Okay, thank you. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator, and we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time, and we will pause for a moment as participants are joining the queue. The first question is from Monica Bosio with Intesa San Paolo. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is just a check. You already say that you are going to push on the margins across the next quarters, just to be sure. Does this mean that in the next quarter, Piaggio will be able to deliver the same margin of the first quarter, which is well above 17%? The second question is something that I do not understand. I understand very well. So are you still stocking in Europe also for the second quarter or the stocking is almost at the end? I'm just wondering if we can see a stabilization of the revenues in the second quarter. And the very last question is for the housekeeping. Can you please just give us an indication for DNA over the full year? Thank you very much.

Thank you, Mrs. Boggio, for your question. First of all, yeah, on the margin side, I would say that the 17% of EBDA is the target that we have in mind. and also the gross margin level, roughly, because, you know, it's a situation where, I repeat, Europe is in a legislation change, and Asia is forecasted to grow since the beginning of the third quarter, so let's say mid of June. Having said that, because we manage costs and productivity, I don't foresee any reduction in margins. And the reduction and the margins that we have reached has been reached without increasing prices. So it's totally productivity driven and cost driven. As far as the stocking in Europe, I would like to say that the stocking will never finish. Because when you have a change in legislation, you know that you have some hurdle to pass and you have obligation to maintain on a percentage of selling compared to the last year, and so we manage month by month, maintaining, if you want, the same level of stock. So we don't have the stock. We don't have also to increase the stock. That's the problem. So if we see a reduction in revenues in Europe, obviously we have to reduce the selling. But we don't see it. We just manage, you know, selling and sell-out ratio, to be fair, in a change of legislation year. But that's what happens every time you have a new legislation come. So nothing disruptive. DNA level would be... More or less 10 million, 15 million more than... We'll have an increase of 10 million compared to last year.

Thank you very much. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you.

The next question is from Gabriele Gambarova with Banca Acros. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on India because in Q1 basically there was a flattening of volumes after many quarters of growth. So I was wondering if you could share with us what's going on, how the market is doing, how your market share is doing, what do you foresee for the rest of the year?

Thank you, Gabriele. Well, as far as India is concerned, we gained on cashier in the first quarter slightly. So we are following the market. The fact that the elections in India takes more than two years and a half to be completed obviously puts the Indian population in a peace, let's say. They are not pushing on consumer business. Even though we see that the margins are good, The new vehicles that we introduced in 2023 are very appreciated by the market. The electric market in India so far is so good. We last week introduced a new technology for the technology that we decided to follow, given that the same two incentives have been reduced by the government. So we decided to launch this. the leasing of the battery for the customer, so to make him in the position to buy at the lower price the electric vehicles. So we are following every, you know, intelligent idea, let me say, to maintain the market share, or if we can, to increase the market share slightly. Asia, you know, as I told you, Asia is a giant country, because when I speak about Asia, I speak of all the ASEAN countries, and because China has, you know, reduced the consumer business, all among businesses. If you take automotive, but also luxury, real estate, the Shenzhen stock exchange has reduced. There's a problem over there, but I think China remains China, and it will recover, no problem, no doubt. We estimate that China will recover by the end of the year, starting from June. The same is for Vietnam. Vietnam, as we know, is in a political situation that is a little bit slowing down the businesses, not just the real business. There has been an anti-corruption law that has been introduced in the country since the beginning of last year. That has caused some problems over there. We are continuously instead pushing the brand equity and we don't want to go into discounts. Asia will recover. You know, we are referring to a market that is still a million of vehicles in the area. Yeah, most of them is not at the price that we have in our brands, and we want to stay there. So, you know, I'm fairly satisfied about what I've seen starting from March this year, that is a stabilization. So no more big decline. It has been declining. We see the numbers. April has been declining, but at the lowest page. So it seems that the curve is reversing. And when the curve reverses, with those margins, we will be happy.

Okay, thank you very much. The next question is from Gianluca Bertuzzo with Intermonde. Please go ahead.

Hi and thank you for taking my question. I have a question on pricing. I think you said you didn't increase the price, but in the presentation I noticed that you said that the gross margin has improved thanks to enhanced pricing power. Can you reconcile these two comments and still on pricing? In a period of change of regulation and after the big inflation wave, there may be some pricing pressure in the market. What is your stance on that? How you will use pricing going forward? And the second question is on net debt. What is your target for the year, if you have any? Thank you.

Thank you very much for your question.

From a price point of view, when I say that we didn't increase price, we didn't increase price to balance an increasing cost. Every year, there's a slight zero point increase, but that's normal. Let's say that we have increased price as inflation is a normal inflation of 1%, 2%, but not increased price to compare the inflation of 12%. So it's an ongoing managing of the pricing list It is normal. So I do not want to increase price to balance the eventual increasing cost. If the cost rises, obviously we follow the increasing cost managing the pricing list. Even because, as you said, and I agree with you, there's a pressure on pricing instead, especially in Europe and Asia, everywhere. Let's say everywhere in the world there's a price pressure. We are out of that arena. We don't want to discount our vehicles. When I say we don't want to discount, we don't want to put big discounts. We see in Asia 30% on discounts, 20% on discounts. If we do this, we destroy our brand. While at the same stage, we want to increase our value. So I want to maintain the price position that the PRG Group has all over the world. and not going into the arena of fighting with Asian producers, mass market, you know, stealing a customer one from each other for just $2. That would be not an intelligent strategy. So we will maintain the strategy of maintaining the price I repeat, we have some, you know, normal discount. We have some consumer financing positions and policy, but that's normal on every business. We don't have any peak or, you know, increase in discounts. Net debt... As we said last year, we confirmed that it will be around 400 million.

Okay, thank you very much.

Hoping to be better than 400, let's say, and working to be better than 400.

The next question is from Nicolo Storer with Kepler Chevrolet. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my two questions. The first one is on CashOpex evolution. We've seen some big savings in Q1. What should we expect going forward? If I remember well, last year Q1 was particularly heavy compared to 2022 so maybe this is just a reversal and then going forward we should expect more stability. The second question I would like to go back to India. On the one hand we have market figures which seems to be stronger. And you said before that you're gaining market share, but in reality numbers are down here and there. So can you please give some more color on that and why you say you are seeing some market share gains with numbers down against the market up in both three-wheelers and two-wheelers? Thank you.

If you have any questions, I would like to start from CashOptics. As you know, the composition of our cash optics are made also of variable cash optics directly linked to the numbers of vehicles we sell. So with reducing the numbers of vehicles, it's totally related to the natural reducing in cash optics. At the same time, I'm never happy about saving money, so we will continue to manage cash optics and to be productive on that. Having said that, we do not want to postpone, let's say, investments, for instance, in marketing and communication. We just want to spend better, quarter by quarter, the money that we get. As far as Indian concerned, you're right. Market share has not increased, but you have to consider, and that has been my perhaps not precise declarations before, We have a sum of electric and thermic engines in India. We decided not to increase the selling of electric vehicles before having clear what would happen on the same two regulations. So the decline in selling and sell-out of electric vehicles has been more than counterbalanced by the increase in market share in the thermic engines. That's because, you know, electric markets all over the world are, you know, slightly, slightly and slowly, slowly taking part, substituting termic engines. So we gain on the termic engines. We decided not to push too much on the electric side because we want to be very safe from the incentives. I personally do not think... that the markets should be driven by incentives, because they come and they go, and they drug the customers and the market. But having said that, as I told you, we think that the electric three-wheeled vehicles market in India will slowly increase, and we are continuously, slowly investing on that market. We are launching new technology for the customers. So what I have in my numbers is that we have to maintain or increase on the thermic side, that is a good margin business, by the way, in a growing market.

Perfect. And maybe if I can also go back to Europe on sell-in, sell-out issues. Basically, if I understood well the answer to Monica's question, from now on we should see a more balanced sell-in and sell-out figure. Is this right? And very last question on gross margin, 30.4% in P1. So basically it's correct saying that the target for you in this 2024 is to keep 30% for the full year. Thank you.

Well, we don't have to reduce targets. We have the target to maintain roughly 30%. We can see some, you know, plus one, minus one in the ongoing months, but by the end of the year, this is the target. It is not impossible. It is difficult because you know better than me that managing such a situation around the world is not the perfect situation for a production company like us, but the target is that. Yeah, I confirm to you. From the selling and sell-out point of view, The correct ratio is to maintain the actual ratio, so every sell-out means selling. But I don't want to push on selling if the sell-out driven, I want to be very frank, driven by big discounts would affect our vehicles. I prefer to lose one euro. Let's say one euro in revenue instead of discounting. Then, obviously, we have to be clever enough to convince the customer that our product is better than the other, but that's the business. That's normal. And we do this, you know, launching new products every year, creating new businesses. As far as, you know, Best Place Conserve, we are launching the new lifestyle and apparel collections. Slowly, but we will have, you know, surprises for you. That's marketing. That's brand equity. That's the soul of our brands. So dealers must be happy. If you push the dealer to buy with discount and then his stock is blocked for a month, he's not happy. He's not making money. So I prefer not to increase their stock, but follow the market and be better than other brands. That's what we have to do. in terms of quality, perception, culture, experience, dealer's distribution network, where I am not 100% satisfied, not from the entrepreneur's side, but from the perception that the customer has entering our dealer. We are continuously putting on the table some ideas to increase the value of the dealership. I think that the retail business is not dead. I think that the retail business is the way and remains the way to communicate to our customers. So people must come to our dealerships. And to do this is not easy, obviously, because the competition is not, you know, we're not alone in the market. But I think we are doing a good job.

Great. Thank you. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Emanuele Galazzi with Equita. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three questions. The first one is a follow-up on the gross margin. Can you just give us a rough idea of the gross margin per geographical area to understand which region drove the strong performance in the first quarter? The second one is on the outlook for 2024. I was wondering if it is fair to assume that the base case now is to reach this 17 or 17.5 EBITDA margin despite a top line which will be, let's say, somehow down year on year. And the last one is a more technical one and it is related to the subsidies you get from the MIMIT for the Ponte d'Era factory. Can you just help us understanding the potential impact on your 2024 P&L and balance sheet? Thank you.

So gross margin, you said if we want to maintain the 3% in every geographical area, let's say that we have grown in every geographical area quarter on quarter from a margin percentage point of view. So every quarter is in positive shape. I repeat, I have to repeat myself, we are working to maintain those numbers and those comparisons. We think that we will have a recovery also in revenues and can enhance those jobs, those work, because you know, if you have a revenue growth in Asia, obviously it will impact positively the growth margin over there. For 2024, you were asking about the end of the year?

Yeah, I mean, for 2024, the question was, it's clear your target 40 is a 17 or 17.5 margin. I was just trying to understand your base case for the top line. So if you are expecting top line to be down year on year in 2024 or somehow flat?

I would say that we will absorb the decline revenues top line that we have in the first quarter of this year, but I do not foresee any major issue again in the world. So let's say that we could be roughly flat, but regaining 95 million roughly of revenues in such markets is not easy if you don't have a growing market. The market has to grow as we are forecasting now in Asia and to remain stable or, you know, slowly declining in Europe. That's what we forecast. On the limit situation, I give the task to Alessandro that is an expert.

About the agreement that we have signed at the end of March for the mobility program, the subsidized of about, for more than 38 on the paper, 38 million euro, we do not expect any impact on depreciation on 2024. Because we have the program of CAPEX are about the electric porter that will be on the market at the beginning of 2025. And with all the most important things, so with the cybersecurity, ADAS, ARAS, and so forth. And also the other projects will be on long-run, not before the end of 2025. So I think that we could have some or a little effect on the cash flow within the end of December, but we have to do a very hard work with Vitalia and Dominique, and from a profit and loss point of view, we will begin to see the effect from the end of 2025.

Okay, just a clarification. It means that it is not included in your target of around 400 million euros of net debt. Okay, very clear. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Sébastien Lemonnier with Pascal Investment. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon. A few questions on my side. Maybe the first one, given the margin that has been quite impressive, can you help us please to quantify the split between cost improvement and productivity improvement? And within the productivity, can you give us some examples to understand what are the drivers? That's the first one. Second one on the electric vehicle, I understand your point, but living in Paris, Well, we have a lot of constraints. I see there is appetite and I was just wondering, can you reconsider another marketing approach, basically, because it seems to me that the customer in general is not so much aware of your swappable battery, which to my point of view have a big, big, big win to basically potentially market. Third one is on the future of the commercial vehicle. Can you update us? And the last question, which is a little bit more personal, You have the CEO position since roughly like nine months. So far, I don't see that you've been on with Investor. Is it something that may evolve going forward? Do you consider Capital Market Day and do you consider yourself being maybe more available for Investor Direct? Thanks a lot.

Thank you for your questions. Productivity, we don't want to disclose our job. We just disclose that we have done a good job, and we will continue to do a good job, I hope. Electric market, I agree with you. Paris is a situation that is difficult to be understood. You know that I'm chairman also for ASEM. We are asking every day for new investments in infrastructures, the legislators, even though nobody's putting money on base. So that's why the market is not growing. And even if it grows, it grows for low-end vehicles that we are not interested in. You know, it happens what happened on the kick scooters business. Everybody was happy about the kick scooters at the beginning. Everybody told me that we should be the best in kick scooters. The same for electric bicycles. You have to do electric bicycles. We didn't do this. I'm happy that we didn't do this because the market is flat. and they're selling just $300 vehicles where you don't make any money. Even though we are continuously investing in electric technology, the opportunity that we have from the Italian government to create an hub in Italy for producing the electric engines, we call it the opportunity, because I think that it would take longer time for the electric vehicles to come on the market and to satisfy the customers, but it will come, even because the new generation...

My question on electric vehicle is mostly on the swappable battery scooter.

The swappable battery technology is a technology where we are now going into an ISO procedure so to have the same battery for all the OEMs in the world. Otherwise, we would have many different batteries around the world. Before going to invest in mining the swappable battery infrastructure, we have to clarify to customers that they can have a legislation. And the swappable battery infrastructure cannot be developed by OEMs because it's not our business to create an infrastructure for electrical grids. And I see everywhere, in Europe especially, that, you know, majors are telling that they will do everything for the electric markets but, you know, they also have to, you know, beat with the money they have. I repeat, it will take time and the market will grow. It will grow slowly. But if I consider to my customer, to our customers, to the new customers that are coming on the market that are now 15 years old and that are digitally born customers, they will prefer electric vehicles. But the electric vehicles, but not be a drama or an nightmare. You don't have to wait six hours to recharge. I agree with you. The swappable battery is a good solution. It's the perfect solution for small mobility. But we need infrastructures. Otherwise, you have a queue at the column that we have 10 customers and one battery. And that's not the way to sell the vehicles. Commercial vehicles. Yeah, we are satisfied about the new vehicles that we will launch, both in thermic. I'm speaking about the four-wheel vehicles. We will launch in September the new thermic one with the new passive and active safety technology driven by the legislations. And the electric vehicle will be launched in Europe beginning first quarter 2025. Again, it is a nice vehicle. I drove the vehicle. It's fantastic. I like it. I enjoyed it. But the customer is able to spend $20,000 more for a vehicle compared to the termic engine, and the customer in that case is a small entrepreneur. So the price point is very important for businesses, especially for small businesses that are the customers that we refer to. So once again, we will see. I think, by the way, that with the next EU Commission coming, you know that in 2026, they have a window to review the legislation for emissions for all the automotive business. That is not including two-wheeled vehicles, by the way, just four-wheeled vehicles. And the porter is in that legislation. I think that they will enlarge the timeline between 2035 and 2040, they will find some, you know, adjustments. So to be in line with technology that can reduce CO2, not just electric. So they will introduce the technology neutrality we are asking for. You know, I'm not in Brussels, but I'm not in the commission, but speaking, you know, with other companies and dealing with the commissioners from the two-wheel vehicle point of view with us and I foresee that they have to do something because they are now realizing that the electric market will take more time. It's a question of time. It's not a question of technology. Technology will not change. Electricity will come. And it's a nice technology, by the way. That's why we are investing in Italy on this kind of technology. We need to be owner of the powertrain. We need to be owner of their software side. We need not to rely too much or to depend too much from big suppliers. So that's what we will do together with the, you know, contract that we won with the government to enhance the technology side. It's not a question of buying a battery. We will never produce battery, by the way. Investor Day, you know, I don't know. We are now thinking about this opportunity. It's my task to increase the communication with you investors, and I will do, yeah, it's a pleasure. It's nothing against this. And I always ask Raffaele to organize meetings. So very welcome if we can speak together. Thank you. We'll be happy to. Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, you can press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay, thank you very much. So we can close now the conference call. Thank you everyone for attending today's meeting.

Thank you very much. See you next time.