Pernod Ricard S A

Good morning, everyone. We're very pleased to welcome you at our fiscal year 2024 full year sales and results presentation. Alexandre and Hélène will take you through the slides and then we will follow up with a Q&A session. Alexandre, it's to you.

Great. Well, thank you and good morning to all. I really hope you had a great supportive summer. So let's directly dive into our fiscal year 24 sales and results. So we've had a robust performance in what we can qualify a normalizing spirits market with organic net sales broadly stable at minus 1%, which would have been plus 1% excluding the exit from Russia. as a very strong performance in many mature and emerging markets, offset a still normalizing United States and a weak China. We've experienced sequential volume recovery throughout the second half of our fiscal year in most markets. Pricing, operational efficiencies, and cost discipline have led to organic gross margin expansion and organic operating margin expansion of respectively 108 basis points and 80 basis points. We've continued to invest in our brand's desirability and sustainability for long-term growth with a very sharp and consistent marketing policy, and to prepare the future, an acceleration in our strategic investments. and as you may have seen over the summer we continue to actively manage our portfolio with a number of disposals the most recent one announcement being the disposal of our strategic wine brands So in a nutshell, you have here our financial performance with organic net sales, as I said, broadly stable at minus one, and profit from recurring operations growing organically by plus 1.5%. We'll go in much more detail in a few minutes with Hélène. A core strength beyond our premium and broad portfolio of brands is our broad-based geographic footprint. We have balanced regional exposure and we have balanced exposure in terms of both mature and emerging markets. These results exemplify the benefit of our global breadth, mitigating the impact of weaker results this last fiscal year, both in the U.S. and in China. We have growth in two out of our three regions, if we exclude the one-off impact of the exit of Russia, and we have positive price mix across the board, benefiting from the carry forward of our price increases the previous year. And finally, we've gained or held share in most markets across the world. The broadly stable organic top line results are to be seen in the context of market normalization following the outsized what we will call revenge conviviality growth enjoyed in the post-COVID period that lasted two years. Normalization is well exemplified with volumes in most markets being broadly stable or even growing now in the second half of the year and this is obviously a very important KPI which underlines the strength of our business. Our focus as a consumer-centric company is clearly to understand and address swiftly our consumers' desires and aspirations and really invest behind all of them. And this has been a very active year, and we've been increasingly agile in doing so based on our new organization and new governance. a number of examples with, number one, time-to-market media campaigns that are much shorter, with a recent launch of the new media campaign around screwball whiskey. We've been very active on the innovation front. We've launched, I think, a record result of limited editions this year, with the Lille Emily in Paris limited edition, but as well the Absolute Warhol, the ricard limited edition which was all over the place over summer in in france and the malfimi sony limited edition and we launched absolute ocean spray the ready to drink range which is currently enjoying a huge success before we move on i'd like to have a quick video please Yes, so Don't Drink and Dive campaign, which just stresses as well, every single one of our brands has a responsible consumption roadmap as well. So we've been actively as well involved in partnerships because it is absolutely critical for all our brands to be relevant, culturally relevant and engage with our consumers who are big sports fans. And I'm very pleased to announce basically the signing of three great partnerships over summer. Chivas is now the official whisky partner of Arsenal. Jameson is now the official partner of the English Football League. And I think since yesterday, we've just signed a partnership with Paris Saint-Germain, which will benefit the entire portfolio of brands of Pernod Ricard. And I'd like to say more to come very soon, and not just in football. We've also been very active in terms of portfolio management. In fiscal year 23, we were mainly very active on the acquisition front with a record number of acquisitions. This year, this past fiscal year, was more skewed towards a number of disposals. So we disposed of Clank Campbell. We disposed of Becherovka. We recently announced the disposal of our strategic wines, basically the Australian, New Zealand, and Spanish wines to really focus our portfolio of brands on the very premium end of spirits and champagne. That transaction is expected to close in that second half of this new fiscal year around spring. That being said, we continue to focus on fast growing and attractive categories. And I'm also pleased to announce, and I think the announcement took place six minutes ago, if the teams are very disciplined, that Pernod Ricard has joined Lewis Hamilton and Casalumbre Spirits to enhance the success of Almave. And Almave is a super premium distilled non-alk blue agave spirit. So that brand, by the way, the taste is... It's quite amazing, and by the way, this is one of the two expressions of Almarve. It is at the confluence of three accelerating global trends, tequila, as you know, non-alcoholic alternatives, and the desire for authenticity. So I'm very excited about Pernod and Richard joining this adventure and accelerating the development of Almarve across the world. so we're a performance driven business and that means driving sustainability in everything we do to have and drive sustainable growth over time so we've made a number of progress around obviously our strategic roadmap good times from a good place you have here four key areas where we've made significant progress and which remain a clear focus for our performance across the business. Speaking of, so our revised reduction targets in line with the 1.5 degree trajectory have been validated by the science-based targets initiative. We have action plans across distillation, packaging, transportation, and agriculture. In distillation, it's around renewable electricity. It's about mechanical vapor compression. That's one of my favorites. Anyways, in packaging, it's about reducing packaging weight. It's about increasing recycled content and many, many other initiatives. Transportation, about optimizing shipping loads, about exploring alternative transportation modes, and so on. Agriculture, about regenerative agriculture. keep on quite for a while but this is very important for our business performance so this year we've delivered a robust performance in a normalizing market with a number of technical impacts as well but at the end of the day our business model we aim to deliver sustainable stretched profitable growth and I think it's important to go back to some of the key fundamentals. So we clearly want to build on our strengths, and our strengths are based on what I call that triptych of The most premium, complete portfolio of brands in the industry, number one. Our balanced and broad-based geographic footprint, number two. And our people, our winning culture, number three. And their commitment to driving performance across the business. To leverage as well our growth model. which is designed to fully empower our teams to seize growth opportunities where they see them in a very agile and swift way with a strong and continuous resource allocation strategy. And finally, leveraging tech and data to do so by developing our capabilities across the business and deploying our key digital projects. Again, our business is based on underlying very favorable trends, which will sustain and which sustain our long-term growth for premium spirits. There are very powerful megatrends. Again, global growth of the legal drinking age population, global growth of middle and affluent classes across many emerging markets, and women increasing their share of consumption. Evolving consumer needs, to which we adapt through our brands, the way we activate our brands, and through innovation and, as I mentioned earlier on as well, acquisitions, so experiences, self-expression, and convenience, for instance, RTDs. And the increasing penetration of spirits consumption amongst the American Gen Z. And over the last four years, that penetration has increased by three points, growing from 71% to 74%. I was mentioning leveraging tech and data. So the foundational layer of consumption occasions, which we master through Maestria, and then underpinned here with marketing effectiveness through Matrix, with promoting and pricing effectiveness with Vista RevUp, and Salesforce effectiveness. which are all powered by tech and data, artificial intelligence algorithms. Right now, we have 28 markets covering three quarters of our business that are now equipped with at least one KDP, and we're still deploying with the end vision to have what we call the CODI cockpit, which is doing the entire strategic planning for the year across the portfolio, leveraging the full tools. I mentioned we put in place a little bit more than a year ago now, Project Tomorrow. That was an organization and a governance to facilitate and speed decision making, particularly around resource allocation in a world which is quite volatile, one could say. So we have the exec, which is now fully operational, and we have a very, I would say, agile operating model, where the HQ are ten management entities and are seven brand companies. Well, what for? Well, to drive what we call now stretched profitable growth. So while year-to-year performance may vary, obviously, in a volatile, I would say, environment, we're clearly delivering our top-line growth framework and our growth margin expansion. This consistency over time is a clear feature of Pernod Ricard, of our performance over time. We do what we say and we say what we do and we deliver over time. I'll give you a couple of illustrations on one of our key strengths, which is our broad-based geographic footprint. I mentioned half of our exposure is to emerging markets. The other half is towards mature markets. And if you take one example in terms of emerging markets, and the reason why I took India for that presentation is India this year for the first time in terms of net sales is now our second largest market. Well, India enjoys very strong and favorable macro fundamentals. obviously strong GDP growth and the middle and affluent class population is growing and we have every single year 25 million people joining the legal drinking age population. There's a strong presence of premium plus Western style spirits in the Indian spirits market. And it is indeed the world's largest whiskey market. Well, we've grown on average over the last few years, over the last five years, By 8%, by the way, in line with our algorithm for India, which is high single, low double digit for that market. We do enjoy a strong leading position with, broadly speaking, half of the market. And with a great portfolio of brands, which continues to enrich itself with some innovation, as you can see. Now, with regards to mature markets, I thought it was interesting as well to illustrate the way we operate with the likes of Germany, with double digit growth, by the way, consolidating our market leadership in that very specific market. So Germany does face mixed macro fundamentals with, I would say, subdued GDP and some degree of cost of living squeeze. with pride labels in in germany and discount retailers that are very strong in that market but a spirits market which is growing roughly at four percent so we've grown on average i would say three times the market rate we've grown double digits on average every year over the last five years Our portfolio has been adapted to address consumer trends. Absolute is now the number one premium vodka in Germany. Lille has grown almost 30% year on year on year over the last few years. And Germany was one of the pioneer markets for our key digital projects and our key digital acceleration roadmap. And we see here the results. So again, that was just to illustrate our business model. So at the end of the day, this model is here to drive long term, sustainable value creation. And I think it's important to remind you what our medium term financial framework looks like. 47% top line growth aiming for the upper end of the range and driving organic operating leverage of 50 to 60 basis points on average. Now, with the industry's leading and most complete portfolio of premium spirit brands and our broad-based and balanced geographical footprint, I can only reiterate our confidence in that medium-term framework. Obviously, for this fiscal year 25, and I'll mention it during the outlook, we're not yet giving any guidance. But we're clearly confident on the underlying fundamentals to drive that medium term financial framework. Very briefly, in terms of our top line update, on the must win markets, the US down 9%. As I mentioned, the spirit market in the U.S. continues to normalize but remains resilient with sellout for the market in positive territory. Our depreciation value is down 7%. Our sellout for Panorica is down 4%. Our acquired brands have enjoyed and are enjoying good growth. Jameson is holding its share. There have been, as we mentioned, retailer and distributor inventory adjustments throughout the year. But in the environment with interest rates that are still quite high, we expect to see some further inventory adjustments, probably at wholesaler level in this new fiscal year, which leads us to anticipate a declining Q1 for the U.S. For China, down 10%, allows to be very straightforward, a very challenging macroeconomic environment, which caught us a bit by surprise basically a year ago. We were the first ones to share that surprise with you. We do see continuing weak consumer sentiment, which is directly impacting demand. Our brand equity metrics are growing, are remaining very strong, in fact, are even strengthening. And we have very strong price discipline in that environment. We have gained shares throughout the year. Stable sales for Martel Noblige. Good performance. I would say very good performance, very good because it's double digit performance for brands like Absolute Jameson, Omega, Beefeater, all growing double digit. We do expect a strong decline in the first quarter with subdued trade sentiment ahead of MAS. MAF, which is going to take place in a couple weeks. That's what our teams clearly shared with us. And we are cycling a stronger consumer sentiment last year in Q1. But for the full year, clearly we expect, I would say, a similar trend to fiscal year 24. India, listen, at the end of the day, let's not spend too much time on India. All of the lights are green for the Indian market. It is a buoyant market. Our teams are very bullish for India. Travel retail up 2%. So remember, four-year sales growth. with the soft first half of the year and good growth in the second half, still impacted to some degree by weak Chinese traveler demand. From a regional point of view, Europe up 2%, excluding Russia, with a strong performance as you've seen in Germany, but also in Poland and a number of other markets. We've held our gain share in most European markets and across most of our portfolio. America is down 5%, by the way, excluding the US. Basically, a pretty good performance across the board. with some good market share gains in Brazil and Mexico, for instance. Asia, rest of the world, I would say good with 3% growth and a very good performance in Japan and Taiwan. uh where we've gained share as well and the very strong results across africa middle east led by turkey but also countries such as nigeria a flat south africa with within a difficult macro economic environment Very briefly, in terms of our house of brands, strategic international brands down 3%. Martel is impacted by China. Strong growth for Jameson outside Russia, across the board, I would say. for absolute strong growth in Europe, excluding Russia again, and in Asia, both in China, I mentioned double-digit, but also in India, etc. On the strategic local brands front, again, very strong performance for us, Three Grims Whisky particularly, Rollstag and Blender's pride. Strong growth as well of Kahlua, very strong growth of Kahlua, not just in North America, it's stronghold, but as well in Europe and in many other markets as well. And finally, in terms of specialty brands, broadly stable with good growth across Asia, Middle East, Africa, Central Europe, LATAM. and a soft western europe and again u.s impacted by retailer destocking but very good growth by the way experienced on bamboo screwball altos and lily and now i'd like to let elena go in much more detail in terms of our financial performance thank you alex good morning everyone so let's come back to the financial performance

So I'll start with the gross margin expansion and the impact on the organic profit from recurring operation, which has been growing by 1.5% in the context of a broadly stable top line. So we have achieved strong organic gross margin expansion of 108 bps, which is as well translating into organic growth. operating margin expansion of 80 bps this is coming from the top line and especially from the strong price increase of their fiscal year 24 which is mainly coming from the full year impact of fiscal year 23 significant price increase at that time in a context of high inflation and as well some additional price increases a bit more tactical in fiscal year 24 especially in inflationary markets we have as well worked hard on the price and promotion with a strong focus on revenue growth management. And this is obviously quite helpful to upset the impact of COGS inflation, which has been moderating, but which was not a tailwind in fiscal year 24, so remains a headwind as far as COGS are concerned. with obviously a very consistent focus on ongoing operational efficiencies just let me give you two examples that for instance removal of secondary gift box packaging was as well accelerated in fiscal year 24 and we have reduced energy consumption as a result of the implementation of the mechanical vapor compression that alex was alluded to in the snr roadmap Naturally, we had some negative market mix in fiscal year 24, which is impacting our margin with the weight of the US and China in our performance. When it comes to resource allocation, we've been very agile, keeping a strong level of investment, €1.9 billion, which is circa 16% of the net sales, with a very agile deployment of this investment across the world, across the markets and across the brands, with always that priority of maximizing efficiency and, of course, leveraging our key digital programs to secure that maximum efficiency, and especially in terms of consumer touchpoints. As well, I would like to insist on discipline on structure costs, which was absolutely necessary and that has been pursued in fiscal year 24 very consistently. So, on a reported basis, the group faced a negative foreign currency impact, quite a sizeable one of 425 million euros, which was primarily a translation effect, notably a rising on Turkish Lira, Argentinian Peso, US Dollar and Chinese Yuan. This negative currency impact has been partially mitigated by a positive parameter impact of 140 million euros, which is then leading to a decline in reported profit from recurring operation of minus 7%. So moving now to the EPS, which is down 13% due to the softer reported profit from recurring operation I was just presenting to you, and as well higher financial expenses as a result of recent refinancing at higher rates, with an increase in the average cost of debt to 3.2%. As a result, the group share of net profit from recurring operation has decreased by 14.5%, while EPS benefits from the share buyback and has declined by 13%. So moving now to the group share of net profit, we report a decline of 35%, which is due to the increase in non-recurring expenses, especially the recording of impairment arising from the planned disposal of the wine business, which is partially compensated by the reversal of historical impairment on Kahlua. As we mentioned, Kahlua has been delivering a quite strong performance in the recent past. Additionally, we record an increase in non-recurring income tax caused by changes in deferred tax, one which is driven by the reversal of the KALUA impairment, and a second one which is linked to the change in value of foreign tax credit in the US in the context of the changes of the US tax legislation. Let's move now to cash and debt. starting with the cash generation. So we are reporting a robust cash generation with free cash flow close to 1 billion euro, 963 million euro, which is a decline on the prior year due to lower reported profit from recurring operation. and an increased investment in terms of strategic investment to support future growth. So let me illustrate that with the capex of €766 million, which is increasing by roughly €160 million in the prior year. driven by very strategic priority in terms of capacity expansion, mainly in Ireland, in the US and in Scotland. So you can assume that this is linked to a very exciting whisky portfolio there. And as well, maturing inventory increasing by €645 million, which is an increase of €136 million versus the previous year, largely as a result of lower usage in a context of softer volumes performance rather than additional cash out. Just a word on the operating working capital, which is broadly stable. As previously shared, CAPEX is expected to remain at similar elevated level for fiscal year 25 and fiscal year 26 with the continued expansion in terms of capacity, especially with our new distilleries in Ireland and in the US. Moving now to the nadepta. so which is increasing by 700 million euro, leading to a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1 times, which has reduced from the 3.3 times at H1, though an increase of 0.3 times compared to last year. So this is reflecting the lower year-on-year reported profit from recurring operation and higher net debt. We have a strong balance sheet which is consistent with our solid investment grade rating. With this 963 million euro free cash flow, we then have a limited impact from M&A in fiscal year 24, with some cash out especially for the acquisition of Ace Beverage, offset by the disposal proceeds of Clancobel and Becherovka. There is the execution of the share buyback for 300 million euro and a dividend payment in line with our policy. Our leverage ratio is to improve as reported profit from recurring operation growth normalises. Our commitment is to long-term shareholder value creation and we are proposing a dividend per share which is flat versus last year of €4.70 per share, fully aligned with our financial policy. And finally, I can reiterate our financial policy, which outlines our capital allocation priorities, which I believe you know. So while maintaining investment grade rating, our first priority is to invest in future organic growth, in particular through strategic inventories and capital expenditure. We will continue active portfolio management, including value creating M&A, dividend distribution at circa 50% of debt profit from recurring operations, aiming at consistently growing dividends, and last priority, share buyback, when the above priorities are fulfilled. And then back to you, Alex, for the outlook.

Thank you very much, Hélène. Again, I think it's important to start by reiterating our confidence in our median term financial framework, which is aiming for the operand of our plus four to plus seven organic net sales growth with 50 to 60 basis points of operating margin expansion. I'd like to say, by the way, my view is big and diversified is beautiful if big is agile. I think we mentioned the word agility a dozen times over this presentation, and I think that's been our focus over the last fiscal year and will continue to be. in a volatile environment. Now, we're not in a position at this stage to give a formal guidance for the fiscal year. It's still too early. We barely started the fiscal year. We're in the month of August. The environment, as you know very well, is still volatile. But what we can say for this new fiscal year is that we do expect full year organic net sales back to growth. with continued volume recovery and to sustain our organic operating margin. We do expect a soft first quarter with further inventory adjustments in the U.S., as we mentioned, a continued very weak macroeconomic context in China, and a very good performance in the rest of the world. On that note, and before handing back to Florence for a Q&A, maybe a last little video.

We are getting ready. There's a buzz in the air. Aperitif means to open, but it also means so much more. Excited to see friends and family. It's time together. A catch-up, making new friends and seeing old ones. A pair of teeth is French for opening ceremony.

Let's now turn to the Q&A session. Thank you, Alexandra and Hélène. So please, two questions maximum per caller so that everybody has a chance to ask his question. Thank you. So operator, if you can open the Q&A session, please.

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Sanjit Aweela with UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi, morning, Alexandra and Helen. A couple from me, please. Firstly, can you talk a little bit about the pricing environment in the US? I think we spoke a couple of quarters ago about the landscape maybe becoming a little bit more challenging, but just love to get an update on what you've seen over the last few months through summer on the pricing and promotional environment and how you're responding to that. And my second question is really around the potential for tariffs on cognac in China. Are you embedding anything there in your outlook? And what's your latest understanding on any potential timing on anything that might happen there? Thank you.

Thank you. So I will start with your first question about the pricing environment in the U.S. So as we mentioned in the second half of this year, 24, it's fair to say that there has been a kind of acceleration in terms of promotional intensity in the U.S., probably starting at the end of O&D, so as well amplifying as soon as January 24. And this is still the environment that we are facing in the U.S., So there was some probably acceleration of that in Q4, meaning that there was some volume slight deterioration. I'm talking about the market in Q4, which was not offset by price mix, probably because of this intensity of promotion activity. This has slightly improved in terms of momentum in the summer. So I would say quite consistent with what we shared before in terms of environment on that front. As far as Pernod Ricard brands are concerned, we are obviously very closely monitoring the performance of our brands and the pricing of our brands. state by state and channel by channel to make sure that we are at the right place in terms of brand positioning versus key competitors. So this is already something that we've been accelerating back at the end of December 23 and accelerating as well in the spring. this clear focus on pricing of our brands, revenue growth management and activation of our brands in the weeks and months to come.

On your second question, so on the anti-doping investigation, It is still a work in progress. In other words, we're still answering questions and so on and so forth. So the investigation is still ongoing. As to will there be an increase in trade tariffs and if so when, my answer is I have absolutely no idea. Maybe two things on that front. Number one, we firmly believe we do not do any anti-dumping, but we are fully collaborating and we'll see what is needed to be seen. But to therefore directly answer your question, to go back to my comment regarding big and diversified is beautiful. The reality is we do believe we can deliver full year net sales. growth this fiscal year, despite a very weak environment in China, irrespective of the trade tariffs issue, by the way, because demand is quite weak in China. We believe China will probably follow the same trends as this past fiscal year. This past fiscal year, China was down 10%. But despite that, we do believe we can grow the business globally, because at the end of the day, we're very diversified.

uh from a geographical uh point of view the next question is from simon hales city please go ahead uh thank you morning alex morning elaine morning florence um um i mean firstly alex could i just follow up on your answer around around china there just so i'm 100 clear you're obviously talking about sales for 2025 being down around the 10 level again this year so you're not building any assumption of any incremental tariffs in china at this stage into that forecast is that how i should think about it and therefore if there was to be a tariff clearly your sales outlook for 2025 could be worse than that minus 20 minus 10 percent um give or take um Secondly, just around Europe, a number of your peers have talked about an increasingly promotional environment in Europe as we've come into the summer months. Is that something you've been seeing? Is there anything you could share there? And maybe if I could just squeeze a quick one in for Hélène. Hélène, could you give us any guidance at all around finance costs and FX for fiscal 2025, please?

So listen, on your follow-up question on China, again, I think that the real topic for this fiscal year in China is the weak consumer demand. And I also believe that irrespective of tariffs, I'm not talking about a potential impact, we believe that thanks to the rest of the world, which by the way represents 90% of our top line, we can drive net sales organic growth with volume recovery and protect our operating margin. I cannot comment further on the trade tariffs specifically in China. On Europe, well, you know, since all the inflation and price increase which were driven across the market, now there's been normalization is behind us. It's fully normal. And everybody's back to regular, I would say, promotional strategies. Some might be a bit more aggressive than others. Again, we're pretty happy with our performance across Europe with market share gains in most, not all, but most European markets.

Two last questions. So first, cost of debt. So we were at 3.2% in fiscal year 24, coming from 2.7% in fiscal year 23. Our expectation for fiscal year 25 is closer to 3.5%. And this is clearly the... of the most recent refinancing, which will lead us to this cost of debt. For FX, we don't give any guidance on that front. It's a bit early. It could be slightly negative, but again, a bit early. As soon as I have more visibility, I will share that, obviously.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Next question is from Lawrence Wyatt Barclays. Please go ahead.

Morning. Thanks very much for the questions. A couple from me, please. Firstly, in China, one of your competitors mentioning they're expanding into more southern cities. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any increased competition from that. Is there any real impact from their expansion? And then secondly, on the U.S., you sort of mentioned it's going to be a weaker full year with a very difficult Q1 due to it's reduction of inventories. Just wondering how long you think that reduction of inventories is going to last for. Is that just the first quarter or do you see that persisting longer into the year? Thank you very much.

Thanks for China right now. Again, I do think that the main issue is a consumer issue and very weak demand. And in that very soft environment, we have gained share across the board, by the way. We've maintained, even though we've adjusted, of course, our marketing investments in China. They've been adjusted, but We're still investing much more efficiently, by the way, behind our brand equities that are growing and becoming stronger over the last year.

So for the US, thanks for the question. That's going to help me to clarify our expectation for fiscal year 25. So what you mentioned about Q1 is really linked to inventory adjustments, I would say rather technical, but obviously on a quarter that could have some significant impact. By the way, we were already highlighting that at the end of fiscal year 24. We have landed the year with a level of inventory which is in line with the historical average. It's slightly lower in terms of value, but that's why we believe there could be additional inventory adjustment, mainly at the wholesaler's level, that could materialize in Q1. in a market which remains a very attractive market. The market has been growing in fiscal year 24 at circa plus 2%. We believe this environment will remain very valid in fiscal year 25 and we intend to improve or performance in terms of sell-out, gradually improving that momentum across the year. So, fair to say that the shipments will likely be below the sell-out because of this inventory adjustment, but I would not call it a weak outlook, I would say, for the U.S., but quite technical in terms of inventory adjustment. So then, obviously, there's this strong confidence and the ability of the U.S. market to be back to meet single-digit growth, which has been its performance for probably more than 20 years, on average. The timing of that is obviously quite difficult to be super specific about, because as well, it's linked to other factors, like the higher rate environment, which is likely to move in the coming months.

Thank you for the clarification. Just on the, you mentioned the US going back to mid single digit, but timing uncertain. Do you still expect China to get back to the high single digit, low double digit range that you mentioned at the interims?

So I believe maybe you didn't hear my answer on China, so I'll try to repeat that. So we believe in the potential of China. This is a must-win market. We have a very strong portfolio of brands, very strong... market share position, protecting and even improving that market share position, a very strong pricing policy there. So the current challenging environment is very much linked to macroeconomic environment, but that doesn't change our confidence that this is a great potential and a great competitive asset for Pernod Car in the future.

Next question is from Andrea Pistacchi, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi, Alex. Hi, Helene. Two questions. The first one, again, on China, please. Now, you've been very clear that the issue is the macro and the consumer environment. Can you maybe just give a bit more color on sort of what you're seeing in the environment in terms of channel performance, what you're expecting through the year in terms of channel? Is it much, much the same as what we've been seeing in the last 12 months? And also, on China, you highlighted double-digit growth for brands like Jameson, Absolute, Olmeca. I mean, the consumer environment is tough, so how do you explain the very different performance versus cognac? Is it just that these are, of course, much smaller or the different channel exposure or lower price points? The second question, please, is on... on the medium-term ambition. You're reiterating your confidence on the medium-term framework, 50-60 basis points margin. So when you think of the margin drivers for the next two or three years, do you see anything different from what has driven margins in the last few years? Mainly I'm thinking in terms of pricing, efficiencies, or potentially other moving parts. Thank you.

So listen, on China, from a channel point of view, The off-trade is very weak. And by the way, we've seen it at Mid-Autumn Festival, and we've seen it again at Chinese New Year. But the on-trade is better than the off-trade, but as well is suffering likewise. On your question regarding our premium brands portfolio, again, Bear in mind that there's a channel which is growing very rapidly, which is what we call the live venues, which are these kind of neighborhood bars with a music band. They're very accessible. You have a broad portfolio of brands, and you can buy by the glass. And so it's affordable as well, versus very elitist highlanders. high-end, luxury-driven venues. So, of course, and given the very, very low penetration of these kind of spirits in China, there is a scope for growth. So it's because they're part of a channel which is clearly expanding live venues, and they're very accessible and accessible by the glass, not by the bottle. and at very, very affordable prices. That being said, for very premium brands. And as for the margins?

So, of course, everything starts with the top line. So, back to your question, it's true that recently a big driver of top line performance has been price, much stronger than in average before the peak of inflation. This was obviously critical to offset the impact on COGS of this inflation. and we believe we have the right portfolio of brands, meaning in terms of strength and the equity of the brands, to put in place this type of price increase. Now things are moderating, and we expect in the near future, starting in fiscal year 2025, to have more, I would say, drive from volumes recovery, because obviously pricing... has been quite strong, but volumes were a bit softer in fiscal year 24. So for the near future, I would say our expectation is that the top line will be first still fully benefiting from premiumization trends, which is very valid in many geographies and for which we believe we have the right portfolio. with a better balance between volume, price and mix. This would be obviously very important to offset COGS increase, which we believe is moderating because of the moderation of inflation, but which is still a growth that we need to obviously manage through pricing optimization and as well operational efficiencies that I name a few for fiscal year 24. There's more to come in fiscal year 25. So this will lead on top of the very agile resource allocation, both in terms of ANP and strict discipline on structure costs to organic margin expansion in the mid-term.

Next question is from Olivier Nicolai with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Bonjour, Alexandre, Alain, Florence. I've got two questions, please. First, very short term in India, when could we expect a resolution regarding your daily license? And then secondly, going back to the medium term guidance, you've maintained your EBIT margin expansion objective of 50 to 60 BIPs. after a few years of really good margin improvement already, where do you see the biggest area of margin upside in terms of regions or perhaps in terms of lines? And then should we assume that we still see a steady 16% IMP spent in the midterm in Beijing and Belgadians?

So for the daily license, there were some more recent developments in the summer, which was a rejection of the appeal. And we are pursuing the request to renew the license. in court. So difficult to be more specific in terms of timing. This is really up to the judicial system in India. When it comes to our performance, it's not going to impact the fiscal year 25 performance because the last quarter which was impacted was Q1 in fiscal year 24. In terms of mid-term guidance and margin, I believe I already mentioned In the previous question, most of our strategy there, so it's all about premiumization, strong performance of our portfolio, which is very skewed to the premium part of the market and the right footprint as well in terms of geographical location. And I'm not sure I need to add anything to that.

Thank you.

Next question is from Celine Panotti, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Alexandre, Hélène, and Vance. So my first question is on the outlook for 2025. So you expect sales to return to positive. Price mix was plus 1% in fiscal year 2024, and I presume there was still some benefit of pricing that you put through throughout the year prior. So I just want to understand whether, first of all, could you give the price and the mix within that? And should we expect potentially this to be flat to even negative as we look into fiscal year 25? And yeah, therefore, my follow-up question to just what you said was whether gross margin will continue to expand as well in fiscal year 25. And then my second question is on the midterm outlook. Alexandre, you reiterated that you are confident in reaching the upper end of 4 to 7 in the midterm. But you also mentioned that there were some extraordinary years post-COVID which benefited the spirits industry. And I think during those years, this... midterm outlook was given. So I just want to, if you could share with us your thinking in terms of how we reconcile what were extraordinary years and what is more the midterm growth outlook for the spirits industry and how that fits the midterm guidance that you have in mind. Thank you.

so on your first question so i'm not going to give you an exact view of what could be at stake in terms of growth between volume price and mix i wish i know but the environment is quite volatile so what i know is that we have the intention to keep obviously looking at price as a very important driver of top-line performance in an environment which is obviously moderating. I think you asked the question, in fiscal year 24 the price impact was mid-single digit, positive mid-single digit, and that's likely to be lower in fiscal year 25 due to the environment. Having said that, we will again keep working hard on that price, pricing impact and revenue growth management everywhere. In terms of mix, again, a bit difficult to be more specific because this is obviously as well quite much driven by market mix, which was negative in fiscal year 24, as I guess you know. So gross margin expansion I think what matters is that at the end of the day, we believe we have the right strategy. And by the way, the confidence brought by this fiscal year 24 strong performance in terms of operating margin expansion, which is giving us the right, I would say, confidence for fiscal year 25 to sustain organic operating margin, but I cannot go through what will happen in growth margin and then in operating margin, which you can trust we will focus on is everything we describe in terms of revenue growth management and pricing. We have lots of initiative in terms of COGS to reduce the the cogs increase for which the environment could be probably quite different from what it was in the fiscal year 24 because in fiscal year 24 we had some i would say sizable increase in terms of wet goods as well in terms of cost of manufacturing because of the volumes a softer trajectory, but some strong initiatives that help us to manage dry goods increase and as well some benefit in terms of lower fret cost where the year before was very high. in fiscal year 25, a bit too early to say, but there's a lot that is happening that will help us to manage the COGS increase, which is likely to increase again in 25, so not a tailwind at COGS level. But then that is really the power of our premium strategy, of the strength of the portfolio and of our footprint when it comes to the geographical performance. Again, I would like to insist that fiscal year 24 has been a quite solid year. We are growing, excluding Russia. This is a lag that we will not have anymore in fiscal year 25. And as we mentioned as well, starting in Q1, we will deliver good performance in the rest of the world, which is something which is already very solid and visible in our fiscal year 24 performance.

And on your second question, before the pandemic, our past two-year trend was 6%. So in 2018, we grew our top line by 6%. In 2019, we grew our top line by 6%. Then came the COVID pandemic. It hit us, travel retail and so on, and the on-trade, so we were down 10. Immediately caught up the following year up 10, bringing it back to rebasing back the business to its theoretical normal trend, and then came that post-COVID super cycle of plus 17% year one and plus 10% year two, which were exceptionally fast-growing years. And I think the word exceptional is important. We spoke about revenge, conviviality, people going back in the untrade, people taking flights again, et cetera, et cetera. Now, at the end of the day, that medium-term framework is based on what we call consumer insight-driven fundamentals, including, by the way, socially-driven fundamentals, including demographics, LDA population, and so on. It's a big piece of work that has been done. And it's based on a number of algorithms that we obviously have shared with you, which we believe fundamentally have not changed. We do believe, and I mentioned it earlier on, the U.S. will get back at some point in time to its historical trend. of whatever, four or five percent. We do believe, and Anne mentioned it as well, but China's long-term profile is a strong growth profile of high single digit. Back in the past, we've had that kind of volatility in China. We do believe, I mentioned it, that India is a high single or maybe even a low double digit growth market. No need to talk to you about travel retail, where travel retail passenger traffic is now far and above its pre-pandemic levels. Remember in 2020, people thought it was the end of travel. The softness there is basically related to Chinese travelers. We've been quite impressed by the resilience of Europe. And I have to say, Africa, Middle East is starting to materialize. in terms of size as a very serious growth relay for the group. It's already playing this role. So I don't see why pre-COVID dynamics of the upper end of that four to seven range should not be the case going forward based on all the insights we're getting. And again, the headwinds of this year, despite these technical headwinds for most, we have grown, excluding Russia. So, yes, we feel very confident of hitting that high end of the range. And again, thanks to a very diversified profile, both from a geographical standpoint and from a portfolio standpoint.

Thank you. The next question is from Edward Mundy Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Morning, Alex. Morning, Hélène. I appreciate it's a little bit too soon to be giving a guide as the fiscal year has just started, but you sound pretty confident at this stage of an inflection with sales coming back into growth despite the softer first quarter. You grew 1% in fiscal 24 ex-Russia. Is it overly simplistic to think about 1% growth in fiscal 25 or are there any other green shoots that you'd want to point to? That's my first question. And the second question is on this topic of agility. What are you doing differently in both China and the US as you adapt your business to come out stronger?

Okay, so thanks for your questions. you started the right way, which is we cannot be more specific at this time of the year. So difficult for me to be more specific in terms of what to expect. But let me just repeat this back to growth expectation and intention for the year in terms of top line is as well very consistent. By the way, not only with what we did in fiscal year 24 excluding Russia, but with as well the continued volumes recovery which materialized in fiscal year 24, volumes were growing in H2 by 3% and in many geographies. So that's why we are able to share that intention and ambition for the year at this time of the year.

On your second question, which is absolutely key, I'll give you a very tangible illustration of what has happened over the last fiscal year. China marketing investments have been revisited. And that revision benefited the US market where they have been revisited the other way around. So we basically decreased a little bit in China and increased accordingly in the US. So some underlying changes allow us to do this in a very swift and agile way. first of all we now have what we call a rolling forecast put in place so basically very regularly during the course of the year we have assumptions for the next you know three six nine and twelve months and based on the diversions of these assumptions over time We then make decisions of reallocations and so on and so forth. A year ago, I was announcing a new organization and a new governance with the suppression of the regions, the creation of these management entities. which means that at headquarters, we're much closer to the business, which means that when China told us, listen, we need to revisit our assumptions, we knew immediately. And by the way, with the new governance in place, with the market companies and the brand codes, and in between, by the way, the operations, we made calls quite quickly. That's just one example. speed of decision is really important. And we now have the tools, the organization and the governance to facilitate this questions.

The next question is from Chris preacher with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. A couple of questions for me. I mean, firstly, on capital employed, I mean, your strategic inventories were higher than we were expecting this year, which I expect is a function of weaker sell-through. I appreciate you mentioned CapEx was going to remain higher, but should we expect lower investment in strategic inventories this year, even within your committed purchases of O2V, helping protect some cash flow? And then just secondly, following up on the China tariff point, I don't know if you've had it flagged to you yet, but there has been a Mofcom announcement just out saying they're not going to impose tariffs for now. I don't know if you've had time to read it and contemplate it. Does that affect your outlook for China, given there seems to be a stay of tariffs there? Thank you very much.

Okay, so first question on strategic inventory. So you're right, this year the increase, I think I mentioned it, has been largely due to lower usage, which is linked to the volumes of fiscal year 24. You need to keep in mind at first this is obviously a very strategic asset for us in terms of competitive advantage because this is the translation in terms of balance sheet of the strength of our portfolio, meaning the aged portfolio. part of the portfolio, which is more than 60% of our portfolio. So a close monitoring of strategic investment is absolutely critical to protect the future business growth. So this is something that we are closely monitoring and obviously If there is some adjustment to take, we are looking at it, but in that context, which means we don't want to overreact to short-term volume, I would say volatility, that could then undermine the potential of our beautiful portfolio of aged products. For your second comment, I think this happened during the call, so maybe just to repeat that this expectation for Fiscal Year 2025 is assuming a very weak macro context in China, again, which is more linked to macroeconomic weakness and the impact on the consumer confidence. So I think it remains very valid.

I would just add, given what you said in your question, you mentioned for now, so I would remain very prudent.

confirm that because the difference between actual translation and google translation is difficult there was the headlines are saying now and it reads as if it is for now so you can confirm it's a stay rather than they're stepping away completely listen it's it's a brand new news as as you said uh so at this stage i'd rather not comment understood thanks thank you very much apologies for dropping it on you but better just like thank you

Next question is from Trevor Sterling Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Hi, Alex, Hélène and Laurence. Two questions on my side, please. The first one, returning to the US, Alex, you know, Conor's had several months now, probably a bit more than six months in the US. What changes are you undertaking in the US that you can share with us to address that context? And I suppose the second one then, I'm intrigued... Alex, you highlighted that you have now got the ability to increase in terms of number of brands you can activate in any one country from six to eight to 15 to 20. What is it you've done that has given that big increase in organizational capability?

Well, listen, from a strategic standpoint right now in the U.S., not much changed because the strategy is quite clear. The real opportunity, I would say, that Connor is clearly working on and has started working on six months ago, is the execution of that strategy and the excellence in execution thereof. So bringing to life all our brands with that portfolio strategy, which was already set up with a bigger balance between the off-trade and the on-trade, on-trade activation, which is clearly stepping up from that point of view, with basically the allocation of the resources which have grown coming from other markets, as I mentioned earlier, allocated both to some of the big power brands, including Jameson, of course, but as well Malibu, Glenlivet, and Absolute, but also the very strong growth relays, starting with Codigo, Jefferson, and Scruble, just to mention a couple, but I could mention a few more indeed, which brings me, by the way, to that second very critical point, That digital transformation journey we're on is all about leveraging this tech and data to be able, number one, to indeed activate a lot more brands because we have precision at scale thanks to algorithms that help us do that and help us understand what threshold levels and what consumer touchpoints by brand which is generating, by the way, additional efficiencies on the same amount of money invested, which can be reinvested across more brands efficiently. So today, what Tekken data is allowing us to do is to free up additional ANP money, number one, and number two, help us focus on many more brand activations.

Thank you very much, Alexandra and Hélène, and I think it concludes our Q&A session. Thank you to all of you and have a good day. Thank you.

Thank you.