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Prosafe Se
11/3/2022
to ProSafe's quarterly presentation. We're not that many in the meeting room today, which is a bit of a pity, because it's a good quarter and the presentation is refreshed. So hopefully more people follow online. Disclaimer will be familiar. It is not refreshed to the same extent as the presentation. Quickly on the highlights before going into ups, passing it on to Rhys, getting it back and Rhys will round us off in due course. So quickly on the quarter, a fairly good quarter, high activity, six vessels in operation, 77% utilization, which is the highest since 2016 in a third quarter. Good backlog of $293 million. Operations and HSE have been without any major concern. On the numbers, Reese will go through the details. Revenue just above 60 and cash and EBITDA around 24. And liquidity growing to 74.5 million in the quarter. And a bit on outlook, the North Sea is still quiet. It's been for some time. So we do not expect too much North Sea activity next year. It looks a bit weak. It's, I think, mainly a timing issue. We have good activity in 2022, then it looks weak in 2023, and then things are really picking up in 2024, which I will come back to. Then we'll probably see something in 2023, but I don't expect something very meaty in the North Sea. And that is a bit unlike the rest of the world, as we have, as you see, maybe four of our vessels in the Americas next year. Capex and modification costs, we will focus on that in the coming months. If the Cephas goes to Brazil, that will incur about $10 million capex. We have some vessels coming off contract. We are preparing the Concordia. So that will be a key focus in the coming months and cost us some cash. And finally, Outlook, even though the 2023 market in the North Sea looks very quiet, it doesn't mean that tendering activity is quiet. Customers are very active these days, and I would expect that within the coming months, whether it will be this year or early into next year, I don't know, but we will see a conclusion of about six contracts for work in 2024 and a bit onwards. So the key focus in the coming months, see if we can get some more work for 2023, focus on executing the modifications and mobilizations we have to guard our cash. And finally, we have a number of ongoing tenders which will be concluded in the coming months. Quick on operations, as I mentioned, 77% utilization and we can do a quick run through of the fleet. The Boreas commenced and now concluded a short contract in the UK where we had 20 of 30 days option calls. Zephyrus is at ETAP in the UK with BP. We expect it to be concluded on the 21st of December. And then it may sprint to Brazil, as I will come back to. Caledonia, still at Elgin, has been there for almost a year and a half and doing very well. And Euros and Notos are doing well in Brazil, no change in that. And the Concordia has now concluded what was a very good contract for that DP-2 vessel in Trinidad. And as you can see, utilization of the fleet looks fairly healthy over the past quarters. Quickly, on the backlog, as you can see, it has tripled in the past 12 months, mainly due to the Brazil contracts we have added, and now stands around $300 million. The main addition for the quarter was the 11 to 17 months contract in the US for Concordia with a day rate around 100 for the firm period, around 110 for the options. And there's a standby rate depending on commencement, but naturally we hope for the earliest possible commencement from July onwards. After, at the end of the quarter, we were first placed in a bid with Petrobras. For those who remember, it's a retender. The first was canceled because the bids were above Petrobras' budget. It was retendered with an identical specification that shows that Petrobras is willing to pay for this specification. There was a bit of savings so we could reduce the price a bit. But we are first in that and the negotiations are ongoing. Main focus is to get the vessel as quickly as we can to Brazil. If it's done in late December, it may miss the carnival in Rio when it goes there, but hopefully not by much. And we are in dialogue with Petrobras about the earliest possible commencement, which of course is in our interest, as we want to keep the maximum commercial flexibility. A quick overview of our contract portfolio focuses on getting work for our two vessels in 2023, one DP and one Moort, and those are also the only two available we have for 2024 if the Zephyrus goes to Brazil. Zephyrus is done around 21st December, we expect, and then it will go to Brazil if we conclude an agreement with Petrobras. As I mentioned, very busy on centering activity. Six, I think, contracts to be concluded in the coming months, and we see some customer reaction based on our bid in Brazil, and customers realizing that what we have available for 2024 is one DP vessel, the Boreas, and then Caledonia, and possibly Scandinavia. Over to Rhys.
Thank you, Jesper. Before I go in a bit into the details of the financials, I want to say that we have done a bit of a refresh on the presentation. And I think also people have noticed that we've included a lot more information in some supplementary pages to the presentation. I think a lot of that has been driven by, of course, the increased interest in the company over the past months. And I think Jesper and I have gotten many questions on many different fronts. And we felt both amongst the management and the board that it was the right thing to go out and give people a lot more detailed information. This time, this is not something we probably will do every single quarter, but at least a couple times a year, we'll have the intent to sort of give people, I think, a bit more information around CapEx numbers, contract rates, and what we're seeing sort of at the OpEx levels per vessel. So that's something we'll try to do. And I think also there's the intention going forward to present more at the half year and at the final year and maybe be a little bit more tight on the quarters, just coming out with a presentation rather than sort of the full quarterly report. But we will continue to deliver, I think, on the financial information and continue to be as transparent as possible. So I hope everybody finds that beneficial. In the quarter, a solid quarter, very good quarter, as Jesper mentioned, 24 million in EBITDA for the quarter, largely driven by the utilization. Most of the vessels on hire, all the vessels on hire during, not over the whole period, but during the period. So a very strong quarter and obviously one of the better ones that we have had for several years. i would just like to highlight that we do have quite a large portion of what we call other income and i think uh for the sort of accountants out there a big chunk of that in this last quarter was actually what i call a gross up of the income statement where we're actually including in revenue some withholding tax which is then uh actually also on the expenses side. So not really much of a margin on that, and that's very much related to the Trinidad and Tobago contract, which actually ended at the very end of the quarter. So underlying around 50 million of revenue and a little bit of earnings on the other income, but not that much. Otherwise on the P&L, no real big surprises in the P&L. As I've talked about a few times before, we do have some taxes that's again related to Trinidad. So I think going forward we won't see this level of taxes. It was very project related. We do have a large tax loss in Norway and I think we have a very tax efficient structure. I think going forward, the only taxes we see are some minor taxes related to contracts or based on the transfer pricing structure. I think that is a bit of a one-off that will taper off. I think otherwise on the balance sheet, I think we're very happy this quarter to see a little bit of unwinding on the working capital. We'll see that a bit on the next page. But improvement in the actual cash balance, which I think was very favorable. And I think we will see that through this quarter as well with some of the contracts coming off, the Trinidad contract finishing up at the end of last quarter. And then this quarter as well with Boreas finishing its contract. So we think we'll see some positive working capital changes now in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, on the balance sheet, no big surprises. As I mentioned, cash, very happy to see the cash balance going up. I think if you remember last quarter, actually we had a good result, but actually pretty flat on the cash. And that was largely driven by working capital. But I think we were able to catch some of that up with BP coming through. And I think we see that issue coming over. So I think we'll see continued good cash generation, at least through this quarter. And a good kind of look there, I think always good to remember that we do have some interest costs, although we have a very favorable financing package, there is some interest costs that we have to pay on the amortization on the EURUS facility, or seller's credit, I guess is a better term. Net interest bearing debt and the debt profile. Not going to dwell too much on that. I just always like to remind people that we do have a fair value adjustment in our calculation of net interest bearing debt of some $14 million, which I think is, from an accounting perspective, something that One may like to add that to the net debt number or not, but we always kind of footnote that. We have a very favorable package from Costco on that financing for the yard, but we just have to keep that in mind. Otherwise, no big issues. I think we do see interest rates, of course, coming up. We are unhedged when it comes to our interest rate exposure. I actually don't have any hedging lines readily available, so we are a bit subject to the interest rate fluctuations and changes going forward. But nevertheless, a very small margin on top of the base rate, but that is obviously a sensitivity that we're keenly aware of. I think I'll move on and let Jesper talk briefly about the market and then I'll come back at the end for a few. Okay.
Thanks for giving me three slides and then I'm ready to hand back. So a bit on the markets on a global view, I guess. The numbers are quite clearly indicative of a tightening market. The supply side here, we can see how that is declining slightly with older vessels being scrapped. We are not in an industry that has any big order book or overhang from a supply side. In terms of demand the trend is quite clearly increasing. Be mindful that this is in number of vessel years. So if you are in the North Sea you often require two vessels to satisfy one demand year so that is worth keeping in mind and then of course the utilization rates are moving positively and getting into a territory which is meaningful also from a rate point of view if you look at other industries And if I recall what we pointed to in previous presentations, we see some of the lower spec vessels also winning work. And we can actually see how that's improving here at the brown or grayish line at the bottom, that even the lower tier vessels are winning work, which I think is a good sign of how things are presently in our market. and what may lie ahead. A quick look on the North Sea before we take a look at Brazil. I think in the North Sea, as you can see currently, there was a high period. The previous cycle here has been coming down. Even though it's not so visible, rates are moving up between 100 and 140. It's been in a long period. But of course, how things are looking, the market is definitely tightening. On the activity side, we also see a clear increase. What we have done this year is mainly tiebacks, short circle projects, tiebacks in the UK. And when we look forward, we also see tiebacks and works related to that. So I wouldn't be surprised if that continues to be an important activity for us. Brazil is a bit of a more predictable market, I think, as we do plant maintenance activity, largely linked to the installed base in Brazil. And we haven't plotted in our latest bit of 112, but that will probably be as high as you've seen from 17. And rates have moved quickly in Brazil. Interestingly, if you look on the historical activity in Brazil, the peak in 15 and 16 from a flowtel or UMS activity level was actually on a lower installed base. So when we see the installed base increasing and increasing with larger FPSOs it basically underlines our view that there will be more activity and opportunities in Brazil and therefore our focus is of course to have more vessels to offer to Petrobras. Rees, quickly, the two last.
We've also been receiving a lot of questions, I think, around what is the earnings potential. And I think that's always a great, great question to get. And while the past is never a predictor of what the future will be, I think we did do a little bit of work around what has it looked like in the past. So going through the last... sort of cycle, we are in a cyclical business. I think a lot of people think we are sort of entering a new cycle in the sector. I think we believe the same. And what, you know, if one is sort of looking at that a little bit holistically, what does that mean for us looking on historical patterns? And what we see is that going back and looking through history, we see that sort of when we are kind of at the peak On average, we had vessels making around 40 of EBITDA. Again, on average, we had some peaking out above, but that was kind of what it was when we were in those peak years. And if we look sort of over the whole, almost an entire cycle, it's probably not fully the cycle, but getting close, we see that it was around about the 20. 20-ish mark. So we wanted to kind of give people some indicators, at least also from how we're looking at it, this sort of, okay, what has been, what is sort of a football field of potential EBITDA per vessel type of range one could look at as the market is picking up? And we think this is a good football field. One can, of course, debate, is it 20, is it 40, is it 50? But we think this gives people a decent feel. And I think as well that the number of vessels, we can talk about that. We've put in Scandinavia into the analysis. One can also say what's happening in Brazil. Is it fair to sort of put Euro Sonotis in this analysis as only having the rates they have today? Of course, one can discuss that, but our view is that they are on these contracts till 26, 27. So after that, of course, we will see. So I'm not saying this is sort of our guidance on what it will be, but I think giving people some metrics that they can look at looking back in time. So I hope that's informative and gives a bit of a view. Coming back, just to wrap up, I think, as Jesper said, it was a very strong quarter. I think we see that 2022, we're landing in the range of our guidance. I think we will be right at the upper end, which is about 60. Whether it will be 60 or 62 or 63, we will see. But I think we're right about where we thought we would be, which we're quite happy about. It was a very full year, one of the better years that we've seen in many years. And we've also had really good operations HSE performance throughout that year. So that was quite an achievement coming off of a low base. So that's been very positive. As Jesper said, 2023, looking much lighter than we would like it to be. And that in combination with activities around getting Concordia on a job, which of course is a cash contributing job, you know, over the contract period. There's some upfront loading of the expenses in CapEx. The same a bit with Zephyrus. In Brazil, should we win that? And we also have the Notus and Eurus uh whole cleaning and we will bring forward the sbs for the urus so that we only have that vessel off higher once rather than twice so if you put all that into the mix we also see that 2023 will be a year where we have to have a keen focus on our cash cash management throughout the year which uh which we are keenly aware of and also very focused on new opportunities in 23. We see some opportunities like Jesper said, we think some opportunities will come, but it is lighter today than what we'd like it to be. But 2024 onwards is looking good. And we do have tendering activity and we're quite positive that in the coming months there will actually be some awards for the time period 2024 and beyond. So overall looking very positive. And 2023 will be a bit of a in-between year in our view. So I think we can now hand it over to questions. If there are any questions, maybe take the questions in the room first. I think there were some questions on...
So I have a few questions actually. Partially I think you answered the first one by saying that you need to have cash management in 2023. So by that I conclude that. you aren't going to swipe very much cash in 2023. Is that a fair assumption?
Yeah, so the question, just for everyone listening in, the question was around cash management and in particular cash sweep at the end of this year. That's correct. We do not envision any cash sweep at the end of the year. So the cash sweep mechanism says that all cash shall be swept above $67 million, but on a forward-looking basis. So if in the future we see that we will go below the $67 in the 12 months ahead, then there is no sweep. So we do not foresee a sweep at the end of this year, even though we do believe the cash will be above.
And I think, Jesper, you mentioned You had six tenders that you expected to be concluded over the next few months. Are you able to give a bit of color on region, startup, term on those? Just trying to assess the idle time there on the fleet.
Yeah. So all the six tenders are the works that we expect will be concluded on. All of them are in the North Sea. There are different things around the world, but the six I mentioned are all related to the North Sea, a bit mixed between Norway and UK, and a bit mixed between duration. But I think the key we see is that customers are moving early. That's the trend we observe. And duration is a bit mixed. And how do they glee together, overlap? It's a bit more of a complex puzzle.
That means that this is potentially done for 2024 work. So there is no 2023 work in those 10 days.
That could pop something up in 2023 in the coming months. But we don't expect if it does, we'll be very meaty. But the most of the chunk for those six is 2024 and a bit onwards.
And then final one for me. Sorry, everyone. Do you have any idea of how much they've increased the budget, just thinking a theoretical willingness to pay?
Yeah. I have an opinion, but I think if you look at the bidding in the tender, which was canceled, I think that would have given Petrobras kind of an idea of what they would have to pay to be in the ballpark. I think that I would basically go back and take a look at. I don't know what their budget is, but of course I have an idea. And I think how we think about it. We will see if we made the right choice in 24. We are very optimistic of 20 more in the North Sea. And then we're looking at 23. So we took this job. But in the long term, I think it's important that we're also quite optimistic about Brazil in the long term and also on the North Sea for 25. So the investment of $10 million, I think, will be valuable to have that flexibility between the North Sea and what you also see Petrobras focusing on this spec. And I'm quite sure that they have also understood that it may be able to attract the vessel from outside. So in short, the exact budget, but I guess going back and looking at the bidding history, I would give an indication of what would make sense.
You mentioned earlier that you're seeing also activity levels for the lower spec vessels. In those six tenders, are you eyeing an opportunity for Scandinavia?
Yes, that's a good question. We do see a bit of a pecking order to be honest that most customers would like to have a DP vessel in the middle of the summer and then that may or may not be so attractive. So I think and although we do bid in the Scandinavia I think there will be a bit of a pecking order where it will come into play especially when the other alternatives are limited.
I guess it is fair to say that we have had interest, though, in the Scandinavia. Yes. Not necessarily for a classic accommodation job, but we have had a few clients looking into the vessel for other uses. I think the timing is a bit uncertain, but she has picked up some interest.
Yes, she has. Any other questions in the room? Otherwise, we should check if there's any online. Normally, that's the more active one. Any other questions? No? I think those we covered. I just have one more quick question. Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead.
In the chart where you're showing these historical EBITDA rates, which is super interesting, obviously, and looking back at historical highs and extrapolating from that, is that all? like 100% or are there adjustments that you need to do in order to make it comparable basically to today's fleet?
Yeah, so the question was if looking at this slide whether the vessels are the same sort of comparative vessels. And the answer is actually no, they're not 100% comparable vessels because if you go back and look at sort of what our fleet was in the past, it was a bit of an older set of vessels than the fleet we have today. We have now today a more modern fleet. But nevertheless, we think that the underlying kind of demand driver for the service has not necessarily changed. It's still maintenance work and tie-ins and hookups. So maybe the spec of the vessel has changed slightly, but we still think... Yeah, we had quite a bit of discussion around that. But I think the underlying demand characteristics are quite similar. So we think that that's not really a large need for adjusting as such on the vessel.
I think so.
Yeah, we think so. I think there's not a big gap there. Maybe you have, I mean, we can always discuss the margins. I think, for example, like we're discussing here, Zephyrus, you know, you can have it going between the two key markets. You know, maybe that wasn't something in the past that you had so much flexibility on, but... There were a few questions here from the audience. One of the questions was from online. Moving Zephyrus from the North Sea to Brazil, what does that mean for your view on the market in the North Sea in the longer term?
Yeah, no, I think it's a difficult dilemma because we are fairly optimistic of both the North Sea and Brazil in that point. So I guess the key for us is to keep commercial flexibility of being able to service both markets. Perhaps it stays in Brazil, who knows, in 2025. But if there are opportunities in the North Sea, we would like to be able to capture those as well.
The next question from online was around Nova and Vega. It says, do you see some potential awards for Petrobras in 23 or 24 to use the Nova or Vega?
Well, we're at least very keen to have an ongoing dialogue with the yard to basically make sure that we have a competitive offer with a realistic timeline. And now, as you saw, they had a bit of damage from a typhoon, which the yard is assessing. And then we have to see, OK, what does that mean in terms of delivery time? But we are quite keen to make sure that we have something on the shelves, as we expect that Petrobras will have demand also in the coming years.
Another question was, do we see longer contract towards materializing in the North Sea, given the expectations?
I actually haven't analyzed that, to be honest. But there are some of longer duration and some are more classical standards, five, six months jobs. And I think what our focus is in the North Sea is, of course, to ensure that we have the optimum utilization. And I think that will be key, whether you bundle jobs or whether you have one long one. I think that will be a bit of what is our challenge. But is there any trend on the duration? I think it's too early to say.
Can we elaborate at all on the discussions around mergers and acquisitions?
No.
No. Okay. Okay. Let's see if there's any other questions coming in. There was a final question that just came in. Can we elaborate at all on the cost split between expenses, between the upgrade and relocation costs being expensed versus capitalized? I think the best way to refer on that is if people have a quick look at the supplementary information which we have provided, where we have actually tried to break it down into what we think the day rate capex will be coming onto contract and what we think the actual capex element will be. So I think if people want to look into that, they can look at it onto this slide where we have tried our best to break it down. But if there are questions about that, please feel free to reach out.
And for us, it's all cash.
Yes. Yes. OK. Very good. Thank you very much.
OK. Thank you very much.