2/1/2024

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

Thank you and welcome to this fourth quarter 2023 results presentation for ProSafe. My name is Teddy Askvik. For those of you who don't know me, I joined ProSafe as the CEO on 1st of November last year. So fairly new into the game, but very excited to have joined ProSafe. I think I've had sort of the first three months been really exciting and I think we have a great company with a very interesting and promising market and future ahead. So today we'll go through the numbers. I'll take the market and operations and Ries will sort of guide us through the numbers when it comes to that. So the highlights for the first quarter is first some good news. It's been a fairly quiet quarter to be open about that. But we have some good news. We received declaration of four months extension on the Concordia in the US Gulf. So that means that that is now then working until on November. They have another two months options and we are in discussion to also sort of extend the options with that is not done. There is a discussion, but be mindful that the special survey, the SPS for Concordia is due in March 2025. The supply-demand dynamics, I'll come back to here, but sort of overall, we feel it's a very favorable supply-demand dynamics, both in the North Sea and the market in general going into 2025. 2024 is quiet, so there are some activities, but of course, every day that passes, the likelihood of gaining significant work in 2024 is diminishing so what we see for the north sea both in norway and uk is that the operators they are planning further campaigns there was one tender that we announced was out earlier and we are no longer in in discussion there i mean we came to a point uh where we feel there are better opportunity and especially especially for the safe barriers in you know other markets so that's uh That is where we are on that opportunity. We also see demand in Brazil increasing, and I'll come back to that later. Operationally, I think we had a good quarter. So we had good safety performance on all vessels, utilization 50%. And we did the SPS on the safe euros in the quarter. And that was, you know, basically more or less on budget and on time. There's some discussion on the timing element with the Petrobras there. But it's one of the projects that has been successfully executed by the company. So we are very happy about that. Financial risk will come back to but I mean there is no doubt that 2023 is or was a disappointing year for ProSafe and you know we raised some capital from our shareholders very sort of appreciative of that so that means that our cash position at the year end is basically $75 million. And as we said before, that cash position will take us into 2025. I'll come back to that a little bit later as well. Then looking more closely at the market, So we say that the accommodation market is late cyclical. And we try to guide you a little bit why we say that. I mean, clearly the work we do is maintenance and it's hookups. So that is late cyclical work and it's work that operators, if the market is good and the oil price is, let's say about $50, they do the maintenance. The hookup work, of course, that's more planned. But if you then compare that to the growth. Well, there is, you know, the late cyclicality, as you see on the left hand side here, the dip we had in in 23, I think just to take that when you look at sort of the utilization we had in the past year, uh the reason for the dip i think we misread sort of the effects of the uk windfall tax we we didn't understand that you know the uk operators did not have any demand in in 23 as actually that's the first year ever there are no accommodation rigs have been working in the uk sector so that's uh i think that's uh in a way are bad that was something we misread uh going into to 23. And on the right hand side, we just also try to illustrate this when you compare our market to Jacobs. As you can see, it is trailing and our market has gone up, you know, 70% plus. while the jack-ups are up 160%. We'll come back to where we are in the cycle, but we see also that this is underlying the late cyclicality of our business. This you've seen before, it's where we perceive the current market to be. In Brazil, the latest data point we have is above $120,000 per day. Of course, that's on a 365-year basis. In North Sea, the market is just over $200,000. That's the latest data points we have. That would equate to an EBTA, I think about $30 million per year if you fix those at those levels today, just to give an idea. And then we have looked into, again, to give you some further data points also when it comes to the improvement of the market. So if we looked at the backlog, you can see that has increased significantly. This is on the 13 high-end, high-spec vessels, just to be clear on that. So this is the backlog on those 13 vessels in the overall market. Brazil obviously is driving a large part of this. Likewise, the backlog both in terms of month and in terms of US dollars have increased significantly and also how far ahead we are fixing or the market is fixing the vessels. I think this is underpinning our view on the market that we are in a promising and increasing market. uh this is also a well-known graph you see here on the right hand side this is what petrobras is saying their demand for fpsos what that is going forward brazil today produces approximately three million barrels per day their goal is to increase that to 5 million barrels per day in 2030. And that's also then, you know, the effect here is, you know, 20 additional FPSOs going into that market. When you talk to operators operating both in Brazil and in Norway or in the North Sea, They say that the corrosion in Brazil due to the humidity, the warm weather, is three to five times as high as it is in the North Sea. That's why Petrobras has a rolling system where every three years they do maintenance with a flotel or an accommodation vessel on each of their FPSOs. So we see that the demand, we have sort of the, what we see as the identified demand, and we also assume that that will increase going forward. So if you look at sort of our market, you can slice and dice it many ways. But, you know, one way of looking at it, it is about 23 units. Then you include the monohulls, you include the jackups, you know, that's sort of the wider market we are competing with. And all those... 23 units today 10 units will be operating in brazil and that's going to increase about you know it is a significant over 50 percent of the accommodation vessels are or will be operating in brazil so one could look upon that that's really like a base load in this market this is a longer contract is working 365 and that's uh and it's now absorbing over 50 percent of the market uh going then over to more sort of the detail the of the this is the north sea as you can see here we think that we are in a very favorable position in the north sea going forward both in norway and in in the uk currently there are two tenders out we think that there will be more business coming into both norway and uk for 25 that is and also beyond 26. so there is some some pent-up demand due to lack of maintenance in the previous years in in uk and norway so we think that the the market is sort of the market dynamics definitely is in our favor here and as you can see there is not much available capacity in the high end high end side of things. So this we see that really sort of should give room for increased rates. That's our expectation and that's what we are hoping for going forward. Again, just to put this a little bit into the historical context. Here we have shown the rigs or the units that we can compare. We've taken out the outliers, the Scandinavia. This is on a comparable basis what the EBITDA per vessel has been historically. As you can see, this is the earnings capacity. On average, the over this period including the last four five very weak years you know the earnings on average has been 29 million dollars on a vessel EBITDA per vessel so that sort of gives an indication of the earning capacity in the market we also looked at We also looked at a new building today. Realistically, what will a new building cost delivered, say, in Brazil with mobilization and sparing up and everything? Rough estimates is $350 million. In order to justify that investment, you need over $200,000 per day or an EBITDA of $50 million per year. I think we're a long way from new buildings, let me put it that way. From that perspective, that gives us some indication about what the earnings capacity is in our market. And again, 2023, obviously very disappointing for the company. I think not to make excuses, but it's really one of the reasons is that we misread the UK windfall tax. We thought, you know, going into the year, we thought that the market would pick up and then the demand was simply not there. So we ended up with a lot of idle vessels. Here, just to give an idea about the earnings capacity. On the left-hand side there, the first column is really what would we have made if all the vessels were fixed in the current market. Today, we would have made an EBITDA of $125 million per year on that basis. Clearly, we have the backlog. We have vessels that are not fixed. But again, just to illustrate what the earnings capacity would have been, with the current market. Then we looked at the peak and then we said, OK, we do have two new buildings, options on two new buildings in China. What happens if the market improves? We have a growth case. We put the Scandinavia into work. And so then the earnings capacity of that market in the company market to market based on those rates would be $275 million per year. So there is significant earnings capacity. And that's important to have in mind when you look at the net current debt, which is $345 million. So in when the market comes back in a more normalized situation, we do have earnings capacity to cover the outstanding debt. Again, just some other more high level thoughts. How is our market priced versus new buildings compared to, you know, other segments of the market. In my book, very simplistically, we have two sophisticated rigs that can go in Norway. They will cost, as I said, about $350 million per year. Two of those, that's 700. You have the two other new buildings. Let's say that they are a little bit less, 250. Those four rigs in total, new building price today is 1.2 billion, add in 100 for the three remaining rigs. The market value, new building parity for our fleet today is give or take $1.3 billion. And that compared to sort of the EV today or 450, you are basically at 35% how we are priced compared to what new building parity would be. So it's going to be a while until there are contracted new vessels in our segment. But also there's a significant potential here on value uplift and earnings uplift. Moving on to operations, as I alluded to initially, SafeNotice and Zephyrus had a 100% utilization in the quarter. The Concordia was in the US Gulf, and as I said, we had additional options declared. The safe euros had an SPS in a quarter, more or less on time on budget. So we are happy with that project. And then the safe Scandinavia is laid up in Norway. It's cold stacked. And while the safe Boreas and South Caledonia are laid up, but warm stacked in Norway and the UK. So that's the capacity coming in into the market. Quickly on the backlog, you see here our backlog, we haven't, you know, we have not fixed any vessels in 23. So the backlog is therefore depleting. We are very optimistic for 25, going into 25, but this is more of a status situation on the backlog. And this is the fleet, how we are employed. So as you know, we have four vessels available for 25. And that's what makes us very excited. We think that the supply-demand dynamics, we have the safe surface is in Brazil. It's going until the first quarter of 25. That can be prolonged in Brazil, or we can move it back to the North Sea. That's the vessel that is compliant with the NCS, so that can go in Norway. So there's a lot of opportunities for surfers. Of course, there is a mobilization issue here if we do take it back, but this is fairly sort of binary calculation what makes sense for us. So we will optimize and save surfers. The Euros and the Notas are going onto Petrobras, unfortunately, at low rates. There's a history for that. But that was back in the refinancing. Those were fixed. They are what they are. We just have to live with it. But that's potential going forward here. And we have the Concordia. She's due for dry docking, as I said, or SPS rather, in March next year. So that's something we are dealing with. And then we have the Boreas and the Caledonia that is available today. So we have a good position into an increasing market going forward. So with that reached, maybe you can take us through the numbers.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

Very good. Thank you, Terje. Reece McNeil, the CFO at ProSafe. Been with ProSafe about a year and a half now. And thank you for dialing into this call and listening to us. On the financial side, run through this briefly. Obviously, the quarter was impacted by the EURUS SPS. The EURUS was off higher from the 15th of November. So that had a negative impact, I think, both on the top line and that flowing through then onto the bottom line. We also had a slight impact from a crane issue on Concordia where we had a slightly lower day rate through a significant portion of the quarter and incurred obviously some additional costs associated with that. We're happy that both Eurus is fully back on hire and Concordia has also now had the crane fixed and is back on full hire. So a slight impact from those two in the quarter, which leads to a slightly lower EBITDA if you're looking sort of, you know, comparable quarter on quarter versus the year. Looking at the income statement, a couple of things to point out here. One, which I would like to highlight is the mobilization. Obviously, we incurred substantial mobilizations during 2023. We took the Zephyrus from the North Sea down to Brazil. And we also took the Concordia up to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. From an accounting perspective, these costs are amortized over the life of the project, but the cash is out today. So that is actually a somewhat a little bit of a negative impact that we will see carrying over into 2024. But it will not have a cash impact as such today. Looking at the lines a bit below EBITDA, if we talk about interest, I think we all know the interest rate environment has gone up. Under our current financing agreement, we are unhedged. So we have been impacted, of course, during the year by those increasing rate levels. On a more positive note, on the tax side, we successfully resolved a tax case in the UK, which we're very happy about, a tax case which had been going on for many years. And we were able to release that provision and de-risk the balance sheet in that respect. As Terry has said, I think none of us are super happy about the 2023 results. I think utilization was a bit lower than we thought and we had slightly higher costs on the mobilization. I think that's something that the whole industry has seen is that costs have been higher in doing these CAPEX and mobilizations. But we're very happy that those are behind us and we have now going into the coming quarter, we have all four of the vessels fully working. A bit on the balance sheet, probably the biggest thing to highlight is working capital and the cash balance. Cash balance of 75 million, as Terry has said, that we strongly believe that gives us a good buffer well into 2025. Supported heavily by The equity raise we did in the quarter, 35 million private placement and subsequent offering, so very good shareholder support there. Networking capital was also positive. My expectation, I will say, coming into the year was that we'd actually have a bit of a draw, but It turned out the timing of the SPS on EURUS coming late in the end of the year that we have a larger balance and accounts payable going over the year. So I think a lot of that is actually timing rather than a consistent decrease in sort of working capital need, but still a positive impact for us going into the year end. On the cash side, again, the loss was offset largely by the working capital, largely by the increase in payables. It did have some capex in the quarter, again, mostly driven by the EUR SPS and, of course, the interest and, again, the very positive support which we received from our shareholders in the quarter. So those comments on the financials, I'll hand it back to Theria to wrap it up.

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

Thank you, Rhys. So in summary, I mean, as I said, it's a good performance, safety-wise and otherwise, for the quarter. 2023 has been a challenging year. But we are sort of very, I would say, very optimistic going into 25. I think 24 is going to be a little bit of a year in between. And both the North Sea and Brazil is underlying that. So we really think that we are on an upward trend, both in terms of rates and utilization going forward. So I think I leave it at that. And if there are any questions, we can take those.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

We haven't received any questions from the online audience, so if there's any questions in the room, please feel free.

speaker
Participant
Audience Member

If not, yeah, please. Yeah. You said two tenders in the North Sea. Does that include the one you know said you're not longer being a part of?

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

That's correct.

speaker
Participant
Audience Member

Can you say anything if the last one is UK or Norway?

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

I think we'll leave it at the North Sea for now. Okay, thanks. Okay.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

Just one second. I did get a couple of questions through here now. I will read them out for everyone's benefit. Can you provide any details on ProSafe's day rate and where you think the tender in the North Sea, which you've discussed, will land? I think that's not something that we are going to comment specifically on specific day rates.

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

What we can say is that we think that for our sake, there's higher earning potential elsewhere. Let me put it that way.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

Concordia, can you comment on the long-term outlook for Concordia beyond 2024? Do you see future work requirements in the Gulf of Mexico? Where do you expect Concordia to go after her current project?

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

The Concordia is a little bit of a special project because she's coming up for SPS. And as we have alluded to in the appendix, that's going to cost some money. So we need to look closely at Concordia, what we do with her after the SPS. But there is no doubt that that's a vessel that is competing in more to the US Gulf, Mexico, Africa, that kind of market. It's not a vessel that will go back to the North Sea. That's unlikely.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

One further question here regarding the tender in the North Sea. Can we give any flavor on what happened and rates or specifications?

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

On rates, we will not comment on. What happened is basically we came to a point where, as I said, we think we can make more money on other business than on that tender. It's as simple as that.

speaker
Reece McNeil
CFO

I think that was it from the online audience.

speaker
Teddy Askvik
CEO

If there are no more questions, then thank you very much all for showing up and also for the online audience listening in. Look forward to see you next quarter.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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