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Orlen Sa

Q32025

11/21/2025

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

We are sitting here in Orlan headquarters in a meeting room to discuss Q3 and nine months of 2025, ending September 30th, financial and operating results. We are here in the room with Sławomir Jędrzejczyk, Group CFO, Damian Wieczorek, and my name is Jakub Fejlin, I'm Head of Investor Relations. Please don't please mind that we're doing it old school without video, so this is not a malfunction or technical problem. We would like to keep it that way for the time being and maybe further. So we will kick off. We're still having some joiners coming in, but since this is five past already, we'll be kicking off. And now I'll hand over to Swagomir, please.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Thank you, Jakub. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start only by saying it's good to be back. Well, welcome to everyone. It's my pleasure and privilege to present Orlan's quarterly results. I would like to start with the highlights. First of all, macro environment and mixed views on that. First of all, lower oil and gas prices. So as you know, that impacted our upstream business. However, very good refining environment, very high margins. In petrochemicals, still we see market pressure, both in terms of margins and volumes. Electricity, stable prices. And in terms of retail, fuel retail, we observe lower fuel consumption, especially in diesel. And let's look at operations. And this is very positive news, I believe. We deliver very good results. Results in operations, higher gas production distribution and sales, higher throughput and wholesale fuel sales, however, lower sales in petrochemical, as I said, higher electricity production and higher non-fuel sales in retail. So, as a result, if we look into the financials, we delivered very solid EBITDA, close to 9 billion polis lottes, very high cash flow from operations altogether for the first nine months, ...of 2025, 34.4 billion polis lotis, and we managed to continue our CAPEX program. Altogether, we spent 21.1 billion polis lotis for the first three quarters, and we pay record high dividend of 7 billion. So, as a result, we managed to decrease our debt level by 6 billion polis lotis in 2025. So now let's move to slide number four, which is highlights, financial results highlights. As you can see, revenue dropped to 61 billion in the third quarter. However, that was due to the fact that oil and gas prices were lower. Then very solid EBITDA, close to 9 billion polis lotes altogether, close to 30 billion polis lotes in the first three quarters. Very good cash flow from operations, as I said, although in the third quarter, slightly lower than in past quarters due to the fact that we increased our working capital by $2 billion in the third quarter due to the fact that the prices increased and the volume increased. CapEx, we continue. Our CAPEX program, our budget was 35, so currently after three quarters, 21.1. I will come back to this in the slide dedicated to CAPEX. And as a result, free cash flow close to 1 billion polis lotis and very, very safe net debt position and net debts to EBITDA of 0.14. So now let's move to EBITDA delivered by segments. As you can see, we delivered... Good results in all the segments, upstream and supply 3.3, downstream 2.4, energy 2.2 and customer and products 1.6. So altogether 8.9 billion. And what's very interesting, I believe, is that the bottom is a change year on year. So in upstream is minus 3.2. But I would like to pay your attention that basically the results of 24 were, let's say, inflated. 1.8 billion out of these 3.2 is basically higher guys prices we achieved in 24 due to the fact that we contracted 24 based on 23 prices. 0.8 is basically a purchase price allocation that inflated results in 24. So you may say that this drop is of course due to the fact that there were lower prices of oil and gas. However, please bear in mind that 24 is not comparable due to those two one-offs, let's say. In downstream, 1.9 billion higher results, which is, I believe, great due to fantastic macro environment in refining. From the refining margin point of view, very solid results in energy and consumer end products. Corporate functions increased by more than 200 million. 100 is, you may say, phasing, and 100 is due to the fact that we increased our labor and general expenses by a few percentage points year on year. Now let's move to slide number six, where we present our operational results. And this is evidence, what I said, that from operations, it was a very good quarter. So we increased production and wholesale gas sale in upseam and supply. We slightly increased crude oil throughput and wholesale fuel sale by one percentage point. However, you can observe here a minus 16% drop in petrochemicals, and this is clear evidence that petrochemicals are under huge pressure, both from a petrochemical margin perspective as well as volumes. In energy, steady growth in almost all areas, gas distribution plus 3%, heat generation plus 5%, electricity generation plus 7%, and what's very important, renewables generation increased by 43%. So what I can say is that currently in the electricity generation, renewables constitute 17%. This is 4% increase as compared to last year. As regards consumer and products, very good results in retail gas and electricity sale. However, we see some pressure on the consumption of of fuel in Poland, especially diesel. That's why you can see that our retail fuel sales dropped by two percentage points. Now let's move to each segment where we elaborate more. So let's start with page number seven, upstream and supply. We managed to produce up to 200,000 BOE per day. Majority of this, more than half of this is of course Norway, but then we have Poland and the remaining amount is Canada and Pakistan. Majority of this is gas production. And if you can see The result is lower by 3.2 billion, but as I explained, Poland and upstream international, this huge negative impact of lower gas and oil prices was to some extent, or even a big extent, offset by higher production both in Poland and Norway. And this 2.8, as I explained before, basically this is lower realized gas sale price. So you may treat it as a kind of one-off from 24. And negative impact of the settlement of PPA, this is 0.8 billion coli zlotys, again, from 2024. So now let's move to downstream. And definitely... High refining margins help us a lot. So in the third quarter, that was almost doubling, 15.2 US dollar per barrel. However, petrochemical margin is under pressure, 16% drop to 168 euro per tonne. But it was very good. I believe crude oil production improved by 1%. So utilization of our Polish operations was basically 100%, whereas Lithuania, 94%. And in Czech Republic, that was lower utilization, 75% due to plant. and unplanned shutdowns. So there was a failure in Litvinov, so that's why we produced less petrochemical products. So as you can see on this slide, petrochemical is minus 92 million contribution to Evita-LiFo. However, if it hasn't been for Litvinov failure, I believe that would be kind of slight plus in the petrochemical business as well. However, we all know that we are looking at downstream business from the whole value chain perspective. So, of course, great refining is offset by weak petrochemical business. However, altogether, I believe downstream delivered very solid results of 2.4 billion. Now let's move to energy. Improvement, higher results by 500 million, basically, and the biggest improvement is in distribution networks of 318 million polyslotters, and that was basically due to increasing gas distribution volumes and higher gas and electricity distribution tariffs. In all other areas, as you can see, heating, conventional energy, new energy, and electricity trading, we delivered positive results as well. Now let's move to consumer and products. Very stable result in retail, fuel and shops. And we see some pressure on the consumption and on the volumes. That's why it was a slight drop in that area. However, we managed to regain that drop from the non-fuel sale. We continued our promotions during summer periods, so that decreased the margins. However, we managed to regain that from the non-fuel sale. And this increase of 300 million is basically retail electricity in gas. But please bear in mind that high part of this increase was again a kind of one-off from 24. That was positive impact of the settlement of PPA. roughly 100 million, so slightly inflated the results. Altogether 1.6 billion EBITDA, very good result in consumer and products. Now let's move to CAPEX. So you can see the split of CapEx, our budgeted CapEx for 25, 35 billion. And that's almost evenly spread across upstream supply, downstream and energy. However, in the past quarters, we indicated that our CapEx program is roughly between 33 and 35 billion. So looking at utilization of CapEx or realization of CapEx for the first three quarters, probably we may expect to be closer to the lower end of this range. However, we'll see how this develops in the fourth quarter. Of course, we continue our projects in upstream supply to increase our production according to our strategic goals. In downstream, of course, we have three areas of projects. One is enlarging value chain, which is new chemical project. Then we improve our product slate, and this is the construction of, for example, hydrocracking unit in Możejkaj or hydrocracking oil block in Gdansk. And of course, we are doing projects that create biocomponent, second generation biocomponent, like retention on all bioethanol in Jedlice. In energy, Of course, we all know that energy transformation is not only renewable energy, but we need to absolutely enlarge and modernize distribution networks. So that's why you can see expansion and modernization of power grid and gas distribution network. And our key projects in these renewables energies, of course, Baltic Sea. So we continue this project. And we target in the second half of 2026 to have this farm fully operational. We continue as well our CCG project. And Ostroenka and Grudion, second half of 2026, should be operational. And, of course, we started the new projects like CCGT, Grudion's the second plant, and in Gdańsk. As regards consumer and products, we expand and modernize and rebrand our fuel network stations and we build alternative fuel stations networks. So this is ongoing tasks and we allocate sufficient capex for that project. So now let's move to our liquidity position. On slide number 12, we present the waterfall. So we delivered 34.4% operational cash flow. That was, of course, inflated by a working capital decrease, 4.8 billion altogether for the first three quarters. However, the third quarter itself was a kind of minus 2 billion. So we observed this effect of increasing oil and gas prices and volumes increased. So we spent investment cash flow 21.9, that includes our leasing cash out, and managed to pay record high dividend of 7 billion, so altogether we decreased our debt by 6 billion polizloty. So we are in a very good financial position for the next years to come. We all know that we have quite significant capex program for the next three years. So this safe debt position is very helpful. Maturity, this is very important as well. Average majority, we have like 20... the 2020, 32 and 33, so like seven years, six, seven years of average maturity. So to finalize outlook, which is probably the most interesting slide in my presentation, because here we present how we see the macro environment and our operations. So we believe that we see fourth quarter so far at least 25 as compared to third quarter 25, positively in upstream and energy segments, more or less stable in downstream and lower due to seasonality in customer and products. If we deep dive a little bit in all the segments, So enough cement supply, higher production, because we don't have any significant maintenance works. We expect higher gas prices due to seasonality and higher sales volumes as well. However, lower oil prices that can, of course, impact us in business as well. But altogether, we believe it can be, at least as I said so far, good quarter for us. From the energy point of view, again, seasonality, so higher production sales and distribution, higher heat production, higher electricity quotations, and higher gas prices may affect slightly negatively, of course, the energy segment, however, altogether positive as well. And mixed views in downstream, of course, refining is absolutely great, as we know, so this continues to be great. However, we may expect a little bit lower throughput, lower fuel wholesale volumes due to seasonality, and, of course, challenging environment in petrochemical business. So that's why, all in all, probably a kind of stable situation is the most probable outcome in downstream. And consumer and products. Due to seasonality, we expect lower fuel sales and energy and gas negative as well. Of course, higher gas sales volumes, but we expect a negative impact of electricity tariff reduction and maintained frozen prices for households. So that concludes my presentation. So we are ready now for Q&A. Thank you very much.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

As usual, I would like to take your questions by saying who raised their hand first. And surprisingly, but not so much to ourselves, it's Anna from UBS who's going to be asking the first question. Please go ahead. Anna, we can't hear you.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

Can you hear me now?

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Fine, thanks.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

Okay, perfect. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First will be around the wholesale margin in the refining. Can you please provide more details around what is the dynamic there? Because it looks like given how strong the refining margins currently are, it should be a very good support for the downstream segment in post-quarter. And my second question will be around other polymers, if you can provide any color around polymers. When can we expect any updates for the deal? Thank you.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Thank you for your questions. As regards the first one, we have slide number 17, where we present the kind of the most current macro situation, the fourth quarter. As you can see, the refining margin is absolutely extraordinary. This is 18.4 US dollar per barrel. We all know the macro environment, I believe, so I'm not going to elaborate much on that. This is definitely due to shortage of supply and basically the situation in Russia or the war in Ukraine. So this continues to be like that. Of course, in our base case scenario for the next quarters to come, we don't assume such a high refining margin. This is definitely extraordinary from our perspective. As regards the the polymers projects i can only confirm what is officially published that means that we put on our offer of one billion uh cash free debt free and our offer is valid officially till the end of this year so we are waiting still for the response of group azote so no progress let me official progress, at least from what we are hearing in that area. Hopefully, this will develop in a positive way, but it's too early to conclude.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

Thank you very much. But regarding the wholesale refining margins, which you mentioned are a bit on the lower side, what's driving that?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

You mean this moderate refining margin, as I explained?

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

No, no, no. Like in the comments for the downstream segment, for example, one of the reasons you mentioned like lower wholesale margin. So can you please clarify there what does it mean?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Yeah, this is more or less like Inland Premium we generate, and this is due to seasonality and lower consumption, so that's why this is our indication that in the wholesale business, the margins can be slightly lower. So this is basically the explanation.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

And do you see those getting worse in fourth quarter, or it will be stable?

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Sorry? Please say it again.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

Comparing in fourth quarter to third quarter, do you expect it to worsen further, or will it be stable?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

You mean fourth quarter? Fourth quarter versus third quarter. We expect to be slightly lower, of course, as we indicated here, lower wholesale margins in refining, yes. But slightly lower due to seasonality, basically. So this is not going to be as significant impact, I guess, as positive impact of moderate refining margin, definitely.

speaker
Anna
Analyst, UBS

Thank you.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you very much. Thank you. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

We can't hear you.

speaker
Tomasz Kroski
Analyst, Santander

Oh, yeah, I think you can hear me now. Tomasz Kroski, Santander. Three questions. The first one is specifically to Mr. Andrzejczyk. And actually, I would like to hear your view on the dividend policy of the company. The company has a dividend policy. We are aware of that. But I'm wondering whether to fully support this policy or you would like to introduce some changes to it. So this is the first one. The second is on the NRGA situation. If you could give us some color in the direction the analysis which you are performing is going. And the third one is on the refining. You already mentioned that you do not expect the refining macro to be so strong going forward. But actually, what is your reading of the situation right now? I mean, do you see any kind of lack of the product on the market, which is driving the prices? How is the situation with the Russian imports? What's your take on this? Thank you.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Thank you so much. As regards dividend policy, of course, we have official dividend policy, which was approved by the management board and supervisory board, so definitely it's been valid, and I'm in a position individually to change it, of course. I can give you just my comment on dividend, and I express those comments all the time. I was CFO in Orlan a few years ago. Basically, my view is that the best dividend policy is basically to prove to the market that we are dividend paying company and consistently each year to pay slightly higher dividend. So if there is no extraordinary situation, my personal view is that Orlan absolutely should be dividend paying company and we try to pay by slightly higher each year, which was included in the strategy of Orlan from 25. And the second point, Energa. My comment on Energa is as follows. We have four segments, as we know, and we are much bigger due to those acquisitions we did a few years ago. So now absolutely we should focus on creating a very efficient for business lines. And we are working on this efficiency in all the segments. So not only energy segment, but as well in upstream and supply and customer and product. So this is the task which is ahead of us. We should create as agile and as flexible organization as we can. Of course, we are very, very complicated business. But we should be, as I said, as agile and flexible because macro environment can be challenging, can be dynamic. So that's why we are focusing to create in energy as well a very solid business line. However, no formal final decisions have been made so far. So it's difficult for me to comment at this stage, apart from all official information we put together. is going to happen with Energa. As regards refining margin, so I believe, I said that this is basically perception of the market and the shortage of fuels, which is due to the fact that some installations in Russia were attacked by Ukraine, so basically there's a shortage of fuel, and this is basically the main reason We don't expect the situation continue in a sense that it would be absolutely unwise to create base case scenario based on this margin. So that's why I said that in our base case scenario for the next year and for the next years, of course, we don't assume double digit refining margin so that we are a little bit conservative, let's say, looking into the current situation. And it's better to be conservative, I believe, in this area than to create a business plan and then capex and cash out based on the huge refining margins. So that's my comment on that.

speaker
Tomasz Kroski
Analyst, Santander

And actually, do you see the lack of the product on the market? Do you have the clients calling you and saying, give me more diesel, sell me more diesel?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

As regards our markets, no, we don't see shortage. So, from our perspective, absolutely, we are fully full of products.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, thank you. Thank you. We can't hear you.

speaker
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst

Okay, so the first question, again, about dividend policy. Will the payout still be based on operating cash flow rather than free cash flow?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

So, as I said, the policy, and of course, unless we change it, we are going to follow it. So, as regards dividend policy, this is, as you know, up to 25% operational free cash flow minus interest, but this is up to. So each time, as you can imagine, we look before we give the final recommendation as regards dividend payout, we look into current financial situation, current financial standing, and of course, we will proposes dividend in the second quarter of next year, probably. So we have still two quarters to go. So we will see how the market develops, how our cash flow look like, how our CapEx programs continue, and then we'll make the final decision. But yes, this is our... Okay.

speaker
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst

So you don't assume any changes in dividend policy?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Unless we update our strategy and we change.

speaker
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst

Okay, thanks. The second question from my side. Isn't your approach too conservative when you look at downstream segment for the fourth quarter, assuming current $25 refining margin?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Of course. This is our perception. Maybe that's my view. It's better to be slightly less conservative than more optimistic. However, this is our assumption based on six weeks of the fourth quarter. So still we have six weeks to go and anything can happen. So this is our impression so far. If you look purely from the refining margin, model refining margin perspective, which is more than $18 billion, 18 US dollars per barrel, so this is absolutely great. However, we have some challenges, as you know, in petrochemical business. Petrochemical margin is lower than the third quarter. Of course, our volume should be slightly higher. We still don't know from the operations point of view how our assets will operate. So that's why we are more cautious on that. That's why we present more or less stable situation. So stable situation means small pluses, small minuses. And we'll see. We'll see how the fourth quarter goes.

speaker
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Okay, we don't have follow up. Please, Ricardo.

speaker
Ricardo
Analyst

Hello, can you hear me?

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Yes.

speaker
Ricardo
Analyst

Okay, good morning. A couple questions on my side, if I may. The first one, it's on the CapEx. You mentioned that you're probably going to be at the lower end of the guidance of 33 billion slots for this year. Can we assume that the 2 billion would be spent next year, or do you expect some CapEx savings and you might not have to disburse those 2 billion slots? And then the second one, it's on the consumer and product segment. You're talking about some of the margin pressures because of promos during the summer, just how the market is in Poland now. Do you still see some pressures there and you're still having to do some promos? And when should we expect margins to stabilize or even see some inflection on the margin side? Thank you.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Thank you so much. So, as regards Capas... If you assume that we have the budget of 35, and I said that the range was 33, 35, so basically there are two items, two big items that affect lower CapEx utilization. First one is CapEx spend on gas chips. Probably we explained that in the base case capex we assumed four ships to be delivered. However, this year only two will be delivered and the next two will be delivered next year. So that's why out of 2.4 billion capex, 1.2 will be booked this year and 1.2 will be booked next year. So this is a kind of movement to next year. And the second billion, we explained probably as far as my colleague told me, it was first quarter, upstream projects, so we decided to just not to continue with one of the projects. That's why we decreased the the CAPEX plan for upstream. So it's difficult for me to say whether this is postponed or not, but because in upstream, of course, we have our plan to deliver more production in the next years to come, so definitely in upstream we will prepare the CAPEX for 26, which is appropriate to the targets we initiated in our strategy. So this is as regards CAPEX. As regards consumer and products, I would say the margins are stable, and this is a kind of market play. From time to time we create promotions. If we create promotions, basically we create promotions to decrease the margins or to decrease the sales prices, and as a result the margin slightly decreases. However, our goal is to regain this in In non-fuel sale, we have more customers enrolling to our VITAI program as a result, so loyalty program, so definitely we are going to continue that.

speaker
Ricardo
Analyst

Thank you. And if I may follow up on the upstream, on the strategy update, you had mentioned that you were looking at potential M&As in North America and the North Sea as well to increase your upstream production. Is there any updates on that front?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

I can give you a little bit of kind of my personal view and the corporate view as well. Basically, we have quite significant capex for the next three years to come. Our flexibility in this CAPEX is not very significant as we know. And in our strategy, we indicated that we have CAPEX, basic CAPEX and options for M&A. And this M&A, in M&A, definitely we have flexibility. So that's why I'm very cautious as regards putting any meaningful targets in M&A. We need to look into our cash flow position. We need to look into the macro environment development. And then we'll decide how much money we have we can allocate for M&A projects. So at this stage, I can confirm there are no meaningful projects on the table as regards upstream in US.

speaker
Ricardo
Analyst

Thank you very much. Thank you.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Ricardo. Łukasz, please go ahead.

speaker
Łukasz Prokopiuk
Analyst

Yes, hello. Can you hear me? Yeah. Okay, thank you very much, Łukasz Prokopiuk. I got a question on your upstream and supply segment. First of all, can you tell us what kind of production dynamics do you expect next year? I think you mentioned that you plan to upgrade production in the next years. And the second question, can you tell us anything on your gas wholesale margins going forward? When I look at your gas contract signed for next year, I see very big spreads, and can you comment on it?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

So, as regards the gas production, we are in the process of budgeting for 26, so I will not give you at this stage a kind of precise number, of course, and I can confirm what's in the strategy we put, as far as I remember, the number of 6 billion production from Norway, like 4 billion from Polish operations. So this is a kind of target for 2030. So step by step, we are going to increase this number. Can you be more specific as regards the wholesale margin? You mean wholesale in Poland or wholesale from the kind of U.S. contracts? Yes.

speaker
Łukasz Prokopiuk
Analyst

What I mean is the gas margins in Poland, the margins which you book in the upstream and supply segments. So what I mean is the contract signed on TGE, yes, compared to one month TTF.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Of course. So we should look into development of gas prices, of course. And you are perfectly right in a sense that I explained a little bit this positive impact in 2024. So in 2023, gas prices were very high. We booked at the high level, then prices dropped. So as a result, we managed to deliver roughly 1.8 billion extra money. As regards development of gas prices, of course, this is a big question, what kind of development we'll see in the 2026. So at this stage, we don't provide the kind of full visibility on our goals, but generally, is going to be more stable than it used to be in the previous years. So I would not assume a very significant differences year on year on that.

speaker
Łukasz Prokopiuk
Analyst

Okay, so if you look at the EBITDA of the upstream segment this year and a scenario for next year that it is stable, is it like reasonable? Is it optimistic or pessimistic at this moment?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

At this moment, I would assume stable, definitely. So we had this big drop as compared to 2025, as compared to 2024. So if you look longer term, like 2026-2025, so it should be more or less, I would assume this is the most realistic scenario, maybe slightly lower, but generally not such a significant difference as 2024-2025. Okay, understood.

speaker
Łukasz Prokopiuk
Analyst

follow up on capex and you mentioned that this year's capex will be like in the lower range like closer probably to 33 billion. And can you say anything about next year's CAPEX? Is the 33 billion benchmark a good one or should we expect higher CAPEX because there were a few delays and, I don't know, investments kick in? Can you say anything about this?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Okay. At this stage I can refer only to our strategic plan, and if you look into the strategy goals, of course the CAPEX is higher than 33, so I would not assume at this stage that 33 is our benchmark, so please refer to our strategic plan, which is still valid, and of course in this strategic plan we indicated this M&A as well, which is flexible, so we will be very cautious on that area. But definitely the range in the strategic plan was higher, as you know.

speaker
Łukasz Prokopiuk
Analyst

Okay.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Okay. Thank you. That's all for my side. Thank you very much.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Łukasz. Krzysztof from PKO, please go ahead.

speaker
Krzysztof
Analyst, PKO

Hello, everyone. I've got two questions, if I might. The first question will be follow-up on refining, because you said that you expect lower throughput. Is this strictly because of the seasonality, or do you have, like, plant turnaround on your plants in fourth quarter? And so, which installations are going to turn around?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Basically, this refers to the planned shutdowns. So, for example, in Orla Lituba, we have vacuum flasher and this breaking shutdown, planned shutdown. So that's why utilization of Orla Lituba is going to be below 80%. As regards Czech Republic, we have planned shutdowns as well in the steam cracker, so utilization of Czech Republic, if you assume roughly 85%, would be a good assumption. As regards quads, we are, of course, trying to achieve as much. It should be close to 100%. However, we have some shutdowns as well, so all in all, probably will be slightly lower than 100%. So, if you summarize everything and compare to the first quarter, you can assume slightly lower throughput.

speaker
Krzysztof
Analyst, PKO

Okay, thank you. And second question will be about your olefin project, because I think it was like that EU plans to come up with some review of that project in September. Maybe lower, maybe changing something in the budget or in assumptions for that project? Is there anything we should know about this? Or you are going to come up with some new questions?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

We continue our project. Yes, yes. Thank you for this question. We continue this project. We have only one item still on the table, which is final agreement with General Contract on CHT. And our goal is at least to conclude this up to the end of this year. However, we'll see how the situation develops. And when we have this final agreement, we synchronize all the timetables and create the budget, the final kind of budget allocation and budget update. And once we are ready, we'll go to the market and communicate the full picture of that investment. So we should expect that probably first quarter next year.

speaker
Krzysztof
Analyst, PKO

Okay, thanks a lot.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

Thank you.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

It does seem that the left is speechless, because there are no further questions, unless this is for the... Oh, we have a follow-up from Thomas. Good timing.

speaker
Tomasz Kroski
Analyst, Santander

Yes, thank you. Just one on the CAPEX. There's quite a lot of investments, especially in downstream energy, which will be completed next year in 2027. Could you give us an estimate what kind of contribution to EBITDA would you expect from those completed investments in 2026 and in 2027? given current macro conditions, not the one which you had when you started those projects, but those that are at this moment.

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

One minute ago, I was happy that I answered all the questions. However, finally, there is a question I cannot answer. So sorry for that. But those are the numbers we basically don't specify in details. And first of all, let's wait. Let's wait for these projects to be concluded. Once they are concluded, we look into the macro environment and then we may discuss in more detail. So sorry for this, but at this stage, please allow me not to give you any specific numbers.

speaker
Tomasz Kroski
Analyst, Santander

But in general, do you expect this contribution to be positive or you think there are going to be some projects which will be more carbonic at the beginning?

speaker
Sławomir Jędrzejczyk
Group CFO

We believe that all the projects will be positive. However, the question is about the returns. And that's why we book all these kind of impairments. Maybe this is the topic we can elaborate. In the first quarter, we book 1.1 billion impairment of new chemical projects, 0.3 billion on the bottom of the barrel in Morzejka. So you can, this is a clear evidence that those projects are not delivering the return higher than weighted average cost of capital. However, this is not negative projects from the EBITDA point of view, because if it hasn't been negative from the EBITDA, it's a kind of wise move to just basically close this down, as we know. So you can assume definitely positive. And which projects are difficult from the return perspective, you can observe our impairments, which we post.

speaker
Tomasz Kroski
Analyst, Santander

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Jakub Fejlin
Head of Investor Relations

Now it seems that we left his pitch test. So we will be concluding before the market opens. Thanks very much for answering this wake-up call from Orlen today. We may consider doing that going forward to have it before the session kicks off. But we're open for your feedback. Thanks very much for joining us today. If you have a spare hour, in half an hour, we'll have a press conference, including the CEO, so you can access it online. But thanks for joining us. Thanks very much for your insightful questions. And see you in a quarter, unless we see you on the road before. Thank you very much. Thank you. Bye-bye. Thank you very much.

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