Qualitas Controladra Sab

We're standing by. This is the conference operator. Good morning and welcome to Qualitas' fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings results webcast. The conference will begin now. It is my pleasure to turn the call over to Raquel Litoi, Qualitas' IR coordinator.

Good morning and thank you for joining Qualitas' fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. I'm Raquel Itoi, Qualitas' IR Coordinator. Our CEO and Chairman of the board is joining us today, José Antonio Correa, as well as our CFO, Roberto Araujo. As a reminder, information discussed on today's call may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's call. Qualitas undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise. Let's give it over to José Antonio, our CEO, for his remarks.

Thank you, Raquel. Good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you all again to review the results of the 2024 year. And let me tell you that I wish you the best for you and your families during this year. To begin, let me start with 2024. That will be a year to remember at Qualitas, and not only for the fact that we celebrated our 30 year anniversary, of which we have been leaders for the past 18 years by maintaining our focus, agility, flexibility, while continuing to provide the best in class service, actively listening to our agents and policyholders, but also for the significant accomplishments we made this year. One example of this continues to be the latest available auto insurance industry figures, which reflect that Qualitas is the leader not only in market share in terms of written premiums, with 32.9%, and 35.9% in earned premiums, but also showed that Qualitas represents 97% of the total underwriting industry results and 42.2% of the industry net result, posting the best combined ratio within the top five companies, and we still believe in the potential of more profitable growth to come. Our top line closed 29% up with a notable growth in profits, delivering once again an ROE of about 20%, which is in line with our long-term goal. And to provide some perspective of order of magnitude, Qualitas' absolute growth in 2024 is equivalent to Qualitas' annual sales after 20 years in the market, keeping in mind that in the last three years we almost doubled our premium in size. Also, Qualitas surpassed the 5.7 million insured units, adding over 400,000 units throughout the year, a 7.5% increase versus 2023. The growth in units this year is equivalent to what it took us eight years to acquire as customers in the early years of the company. Obviously, growing at this pace represents a continuous opportunity to provide outstanding customer service and meet their expectations. Therefore, throughout the year, we increased our workforce and successfully integrated over 600 positions with the company while strengthening our onboarding process to ensure that Qualitas DNA is lived by everyone. Proving outstanding service is at the center of everything we do. Let me talk about our call center, which continues to show remarkable improvement, fulfilling our commitment to being efficient and offering the best service to our customers. In 2024, we received 3.3 million calls, from which the average response time decreased from eight to six seconds, equivalent to a ring when dialing, ensuring faster service under stressful situations. This progress is reflected in the satisfaction rate of 95% for the year surpassing the rate achieved a year ago, which confirms our ongoing efforts to optimize service quality. The attention and service provided by claim officers have also experienced significant improvements in 2024, both in response times and satisfaction levels. We have managed to reduce the adjuster's arrival time, which optimizes service and reduces wait times for policyholders, while also fostering a sense of trust. Additionally, the satisfaction rate with in-person claim officers has increased two percentage points year over year, while the satisfaction rate with express adjusters has also improved, reaching 94.2% compared to 90% in 2023. These results reflect the trust placed in us by our policyholders and the success of our business model. Our strategy to generate growth by prioritizing our service has fully translated into being the most elected option, not because of price, but because of the value provided by our products and by our team. We honor our work. I am especially grateful to all Qualitas team members who have played an important role in setting us on this path. Given the momentum we see, we believe we can continue to drive healthy growth in 2025 and beyond, including our next year's expectation to deliver top-line growth of high single digits to low teens, along with healthy ratios within our target ranges. And Roberto will elaborate further. During 2024, Qualitas corporate development plan progressed as well, reaching two important milestones, whilst executing in line with our three pillar strategy that we deployed a couple of years ago, by which we aim to further diversify our business to fuel sustainable growth for the mid and long term. First, by the end of 2024, the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia authorized the operation in the field of automobile insurance to Qualitas Compañía de Seguros Colombia. And just a few days ago, we successfully issued our first policy in the country. Being able to serve a market with a vehicle fleet of more than 17 million units will represent a big challenge, one we look forward to, while also recognizing it will require resources, attention to detail, and incorporating Qualitas DNA, but certainly something that we are excited about. Furthermore, we completed the acquisition of a company that has more than 50 years of experience in the sale and installation of windshields and all types of automobile glass, also the supply of spare parts, automotive paint and repairing products, with a network of more than 130 branches across Mexico. This acquisition confirms our differentiation strategy through vertical integration by strengthening and complementing the potential of our subsidiary FLEC. Another key achievement this year has been strengthening our organization. During 2024, We secure key senior leadership positions such as our CFO and CIO, in addition to effective succession transitions in critical areas such as human resources, treasury, valuation, allowing for the internal talent development and growth within the company. Furthermore, our turnover rate was reduced by 4.1 percentage points versus 2023. These accomplishments have been crucial in driving our growth and ensuring we are well prepared for the challenges ahead, always alongside the right people who share our values and help us continue to permeate our DNA throughout the organization. Back when we started the year, and together with Bernardo, we mentioned that we envisioned 2024 as the year of a perfect trifecta. Today, I am pleased to share that not only did we continue the momentum on growing the top line, We achieved the inflection point in our loss ratio, something very important, and we delivered on the investment portfolio by taking advantage from attractive interest rates. But also we were able to continue investing in strategic projects that will transform Qualitas in the years to come. To conclude my remarks, I feel proud to take part in a Mexican company that is contributing as an industry leader to the economics of our country and other regions as well. Taken as a whole, we have a lot to be proud of, both from a financial and value creation standpoint. As we look into 2025 and beyond, we are confident in our continued ability to drive sustained growth and create shareholder value through our best-in-class service. And with that, let's move to the financial details and take a deeper dive into the quarter and year results.

Roberto, please. Thank you, José Antonio, and good morning, everyone. We had an outstanding quarter and finish to the year. In fact, a record year, reflecting solid top-line performance, record underwriting and investment income, and a combined ratio within our targets, underscoring the company's ability to deliver results. Going directly to our top-line performance, written premiums were up 27.4% for the quarter and 28.9% for the year. Growth was broad-based with a Mexican operation leading the way with 30.1% in the quarter and 30.7% for the year. The combination of volume and pricing resulted in a strong year for Mexico, driven by 40% volume and the remaining 60% by pricing mix. Mexico growth was boosted by a large multi-year policy fleet, which accounted for around 11 percentage points for the quarter and around 3 percentage points for the year. This will be important to consider for next year's comparison. When unpacking Mexico's drivers of growth, the traditional segment accounted for 68% of total written premiums, growing at a rate of 33.5% for the quarter and a 33.3% for the year. From this segment, our fleet business stands out with a quarterly increase of 49.1% and a 43.9% for the last 12 months. Lastly, financial institutions, which accounted for 27% of total written premiums on cumulative terms, continues to portray consistent double digit growth rates of 23.2% for the quarter and 25.6% for the year. these results drive towards a stronger leadership position in the market meaning by the end of q3 the latest industry number qualitas held 32.9 percent within premium share up 100 basis points versus same period a year ago in the heavy equipment segment that share is now 44.7 percent versus 43.7 in the 2023 reflecting qualitas effective price adjustments despite the competitive environment. Certainly, market share is always a good thermometer, but in the case of Qualitas, it is not a measure linked to anyone's performance. In 2024, Gritton Premiums from our international subsidiaries represented 4.8% of the total holding company underwriting. The U.S. subsidiary is focusing on reshaping the mix towards being profitable, resulting in premiums diminishing 15.9% in a full year basis. In fact, our strategy is on track. Our portfolio composition by year end was only 5% domestic, while cross-border binational products represent 69%, with the remaining balance being the PPA business. As reported, LATAM subsidiaries were up 31.5% for the quarter and 27.2% year-over-year, fully in line with our strategy. This shows that while the comparative base with Mexico is larger, we are building a promising future. 2024 was a year that marked several milestones as part of the LATAM expansion. A clear example of growth and value creation is Peru. where in just five years of presence, Qualitas Perú has managed to establish itself with a market share of 6.6%, becoming the fastest growing insuring company in the market. or Costa Rica, a market where we are the number one private sector company and second overall when considering the National Insurance Institute. In 2024, Costa Rica grew 240% in technical results due to an improvement in the loss ratio of 9.3 percentage points compared to 2023. Including all subsidiaries, as José Antonio previously mentioned, we closed the quarter with more than 5.7 million insured units, which represents a new record high for the company, with over 400,000 additional units during the year or 7.5% unit growth. Back to our financials, earned premiums were up 17.7% and 23.4% for the quarter and full year respectively, reflecting a reserves constitution in line with our solid top-line growth pace. During the fourth quarter, we constituted $4.4 billion reserve that represents $2 billion more than the fourth quarter of last year, closing the year with a constitution of $8 billion reserve that represents $4 billion, twice the amount of last year. These figures are new record highs for Qualitas. compared to any historical reserves constitution. Technical reserves constitution is based on approved regulatory models and speak to the high premiums growth. As a matter of fact, we should expect to see earned premiums grow at a higher pace, even higher than written premiums once the growth stabilizes in the coming quarters. Finally, our technical reserves are also helping with our investment portfolio size. Moving now to our cost, the claims ratio stood at 66% for the quarter. This quarterly ratio posted a 4.7 percentage point improvement versus same quarter last year and a 3.2 percentage points improvement versus Q3. During the last quarter of the year, we did not have any extraordinary hurricanes and heavy rains were lower than Q3. Moreover, loss ratio for the year closed at 66.3, a 4.7 percentage point improvement versus 2023 and reached the inflection point expected. To better understand progress and challenges, I will provide the specifics from our main markets. First, in Mexico, loss ratio stood at 63.2% for the quarter, a 4.4 percentage point decrease versus same period a year ago, and a 64.4% for the full year, a 4.8% point noticeable improvement versus last year, confirming we're within the desired and sustainable Ross Ratio target range of 62 to 65%. It is worth mentioning that during the fourth quarter, frequencies stood at 7.4% and 28.2% for the full year, slightly below a year ago. Throughout this year, we have witnessed a 23% Mexican peso depreciation, leading to many inquiries regarding its impact on our costs. As mentioned before, FX does not immediately distress our costs. The correlation between currency depreciation and our costs is not linear. Prices for spare parts are determined by supply and demand, commodity prices and shipping costs. Therefore, despite recognizing that from our total claim costs, 50% are related to material damage and from those 20 to 25% are related to imports of spare parts and others. While it is quite complex to assess the true impact of FX volatility on our overall future costs, so far we have been effective in keeping our underwriting discipline to respond to any required rate adjustments and we will continue to do so and be diligent. Regarding thefts, in 2024, robberies increased 3% for Qualitas and 1% for the industry. Remember that these stats reflect our higher units growth versus industry and leading market share, especially in the heavy equipment segment where we have 45% market share and they also reflect our insured motorcycles that increase number of insured units, but have a lower insured value. Nevertheless, we're not only market leaders in terms of share, but also in terms of risk management and prevention. Qualitas recovery rate stands out at 40.1% and is consistent to the rest of the industry. So let me now move to our US business, where we continue our strategy of exiting the domestic market to focus on the cross-border and binational products. The journey continues to be bumpy, recognizing it is not as fast, simple, nor cheap as we need to bring to closure the claims that trace back to five or even seven years ago. These quarterly financials were impacted by the year end actual analysis in which adverse developments of historical claims and verdicts led to a higher reserves constitution. In addition, there were two other decisions impacting our results. Number one, the agreement with the California Department of Insurance that by year end, we would move towards the midpoint of reserves range within the four year plan that they started back in 2023. Due to our external audit recommendation, we continue building a DTA as a conservative and unlikely case if we were not able to turn around the business in a way that credits these taxes. All in, U.S. business posted losses for the year, as part of which relates to reserves and provisions that could recover once shifting the business. The US business turnaround is within our top corporate priorities. We will continue to assess all possible paths to ensure domestic business runoff is managed at the least possible cost, while building a niche business where we can create value. We expect to reach a break-even performance by 2026. Having knowledge of the cross-border business profitability and low penetration, we believe in the opportunity to continue operating the cross-border niche in which we currently have no more than 20% of market share and we consider it a tactical growth opportunity for our company. Shifting gears will take time, but we are confident on our capacity to deliver a positive outcome from this. Moving to our acquisition ratio, it stands at 21.2% and 22% for the quarter and the year respectively, in line with our historical range, reflecting a strong performance in the traditional segment, which carries lower commissions. Overall, commissions remain unchanged in 2024, and by year end, our portfolio composition closed 78% annual and 22% multi-year policies, This changing mix posted a 3.2% point shift versus 2023. The increasing multi-year mix from 18.8% in 2023 to 22% is mainly driven by the fourth quarter composition, which is resulting in roughly a 70-30 annual versus multi-year split. Then, our operating ratio for the quarter stood at 3.5% and 4% for the year. For 2024, employee profit sharing provision was 50% greater than last year, given the positive performance of our company. However, if we were to exclude this provision, that by law must be incorporated into our operating expenses, the ratio would have stood at 2.7% for the quarter and 3% for 2024, in line with our historical range. All the above resulted in an outstanding combined ratio of 90.8% for the quarter, ending the year at 92.2% within our 92 to 94 target, which speaks to the underwriting discipline and our ability to continue deliver consistent financial results. These results reflect the commitment of our entire team towards excellence in service and cost control. Let me be clear, Qualitas is a resilient business, not only for the short term, but most importantly, for the long run. Now, moving to the financial side of our business, our comprehensive financial income grew 41.9% for the quarter and 24.5% for the year. We continue to be mainly invested in fixed income, representing 87% of our 49 billion pesos total portfolio with an average duration of 1.8 years and a 9.2% year to maturity. In the case of our Mexican subsidiary, the yield to maturity stands at 10.1%. With the current portfolio composition, for each 25 basis points that rates decrease, the impact on our portfolio valuation is around 195 million pesos on an annual basis. The remaining of our portfolio is invested in equities, mostly placed on ETFs following the US market and other global markets. Only 3% of our equity portfolio is invested in Mexican rates, given we believe they create value through their attractive dividend distribution. All our investment assets follow accounting guidelines classified as available for sale, so their performance, whether gains or losses, is considered on our balance sheet until they are realized. Our investment strategy does not foresee any relevant changes for 2025, aiming to bring fixed income duration as close as it can get to 1.8 years, as reference rates remain in the mid to high single digits in Mexico. following the guidelines, advisory and strategy decided by our investment committee as part of our institutionalized corporate governance. We delivered a comprehensive financial income of 1.6 billion during the quarter and 4.9 billion for the year. Our investment portfolio reached an 11.5% ROI for the quarter and 9.6 ROI for the year. In 2024, unrealized gains are in the magnitude of 1 billion pesos, including FX benefit. When considering all positions as mark to market, ROI would stand at 11.7% in 2024. Around 24% of our portfolio is invested in US dollars, given our international presence. For every peso that the FX appreciates or depreciates, the estimated annual impact is 612 million pesos, playing as a natural hedge for FX depreciation. 2024 effective tax rate is to that 32.3% which shows more normalized level reached throughout the year given inflationary adjustment benefits are lower. All in all Qualitas posted a 1.4 billion net income for the quarter and a 5.1 billion net income for the year with a 6.6% and a 7.4% net margin respectively. Our 12-month ROE stood at 22.2% already within our long-term target. We are proud of the performance that our team has delivered, driving industry-leading profitability. We're executing against the strategy with earnings durability and capital efficiency. Qualitas is well positioned to maintain industry leadership operationally and financially. Next, we close the year with higher than expected top-line growth and strong momentum. We deliver positive underwriting profit that stands in the industry and a well-positioned investment portfolio that benefits our financial performance. Once again, we confirm quality, resilience, and capability to create value. Our regulatory capital stood at 5.5 billion, with a solvency margin of 17.5 billion pesos, equivalent to 421% solvency ratio. Recent capital allocation returns our 12-month earned premium to capital ratio at 2.5x. Dividend distribution will continue to be part of our capital allocation, and although the decision relies on our AGM, from a management standpoint, we believe the upcoming dividend may once again be at the high end of our policy range, which is 40 to 90%. Anticipating a question that I have been receiving quite frequently regarding a potential extraordinary dividend, as mentioned, we're open to assess it, although given the expected volatility in 2025 with new federal governments in both Mexico and U.S., we do not consider prudent to appraise it in this year. It is worth mentioning that there is no news from a fiscal authority regarding the audit procedures and the VAT interpretation. This matter continues under assessment in the corresponding instances and we have not received any conclusive or final resolution. Qualitas' position stands firm with the corresponding legal arguments to support the industry criteria and thus we trust the authorities will reach a reasonable resolution. As mentioned before, we will timely communicate any relevant progress to the market. Before moving to the Q&A session, let me provide you with some color of what we could expect for next year's performance, reiterating that since a few years back, we do not disclose a formal guidance or targets, but rather some overall expectations. Topline growth momentum is expected to be at a smaller pace, following the projections of new car sales growth from AMDA, which is forecasted to be between minus 1 to plus 2%. Written premiums are expected to grow in the high single digits to the low mid teens, with earned premiums growing ahead. Regarding loss ratio, we expect to continue making progress towards our technical range objective of 62 to 65%. We do expect to see the historical seasonality for the coming quarters. However, for the year, we expect to be within our loss ratio objective. The acquisition ratio and operating ratio should continue within its historical levels with no major changes. The above metrics should lead to a combined ratio within our objective range between 92 to 94%. Finally, our financial performance would be similar to the results posted in 2024 given our fixed income duration strategy. So, I'm confident in our strategy. Qualitas has a strong momentum, but first and foremost, our service and cost control DNA is at the front of everything that we do. All in all, Qualitas team delivered a remarkable 2024, leading the industry operationally and financially while providing a best-in-class service for our policyholders and agents. Qualitas is well positioned to build our momentum in the new 2025 with continued growth in earnings. We invite you to be a part of our long-term vision, recognizing the resilience that the company has demonstrated through the different periods and environments over the past 30 years. I could not be more excited about what's ahead for Qualitas and our customers, and I'm confident that our focused strategy will drive significant value creation for our shareholders in the years to come. And now, operator, please open the line for questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and. answer session. To join the question queue, you may press the raise your hand button at the bottom of your screen and we'll open the mic. You can also send it through the chat. To withdraw your hand or question, please press the same buttons once again. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. Our first question comes from Tiago Binsfield at Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the call and the chance to ask questions. I have two questions, actually. The first one is on the top line. I think the message was that written premiums are expected to grow in the high single digits or low mid-teens. So just wanted to hear from you, what are the main upside and downside risks in your view? What would make the company reach the low mid-teens? So just trying to pick your brain on what are the main driving forces for top line growth into 2025. And then second question is on financial income. You mentioned also that it should be a similar performance as seen in 2024. So just wanted to clarify, does that mean the same dollar amount as you saw in 2024, same ROI? Just trying to understand a little bit better the message here. Thank you so much.

Good morning, Thiago. Thank you for joining us this morning. I'm going to take the first one, the top line growth. It is important to recognize that the past couple of years, 2023 and 2024, have been outstanding in terms of top line growth. And there are a number of elements that have made that something that has been purely out of the historical growth rate that we had in Qualitas, because of the pandemic, because of the loss ratios, and because of the increased price of automobiles and trucks. That has already elapsed. We have been recovered. As you know, we wanted to reduce and go back to our combined ratio targets long-term. It had taken us over a couple of years to do that. But we are almost there. Clearly, that's something that will be there. If you look at the historical top line growth in the case of Qualitas, has been around 10%, generally speaking. So if we eliminate those particularly good years from a top line, from a top line basis, that is what happens now. It's important to note that the industry association in Mexico, well, as you know, there has been also changes in government, both in Mexico and in the US. And, you know, the economic growth in Mexico is not expected to be as good as in the past. They are expecting around one, 1.2% the GDP. Now, so having said that, also the Automobile Association considers that the growth in cars new sales is going to be between the minus 1% to around 2%. In our view, that sounds a little bit conservative. Over the past couple of years, they have been ahead of what they had indicated. So hopefully that will be the case. But when we put all in all in our plate, what we see is that we will return closer to our long-term growth that we have had with the exception of these two exceptional years that we have in 2023 and 2024. So I think that probably maybe the 8% is in my mind low, but it is within the realm of possibility. And I personally think that probably is going to be closer to probably a 12% to Maybe a 14%, but obviously there's no guarantee on that one. We will continue to be our best. We will continue to lead pricing in Mexico, which we are generally ahead of our competitors. So with that, I think it is reasonable to expect that we go to our long-term targets of double-digit growth. Roberto, do you want to take the other one?

Absolutely. Thank you, Jose Antonio. Thanks, Tiago. Thanks for joining us today. Regarding your second question on financial income on return on our investment, as I stated earlier, our investment strategy does not foresee any relevant changes. Therefore, to answer your question, we see a similar amount in terms of absolute numbers. Yes, the size will probably start increasing, but yet the duration of 1.8 will help us to see some similar absolutes in 2025. Hope that answers your question, Thierry.

That's clear. Thank you so much. If I may just follow up, when you guide for financial income in 2025, do you consider realizing any of the unrealized gains that you have at this point? I think it's close to 1 billion pesos.

Yes, as you pointed out, we have slightly less than 1 billion pesos. And yes, we will look into some of those opportunities in 2025 to see how that plays out. And we're always going to be looking at some opportunities for implementing those. But not entirely, but we'll assess accordingly.

Perfect. That's clear. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo at Bank of America.

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Jose Antonio and Roberto. Thanks for taking my call. My first question will be on your net income growth expectations. I know that you don't provide a target, but when we put all of the guidance that you have already provided in terms of premiums grow, the loss ratio, combined ratio, a similar financial performance. Would it be reasonable to expect double digit earnings growth? So I don't know, maybe around 15% growth for this year. That will be my first question. And then my second question is, what could be the key challenges for this year? We'd like to hear your thoughts, for example, There could be potential insecurity in the north of the country because of the massive deportations. So I don't know if you have already started to see what could be some potential risk to your business because of that. I don't know in the truck business. And which other challenges do you think we can face during 2025? And then my last question is on what would be your expectations for the ROE in 25? You pointed in your last slide, you were showing between 20 to 25. Would that be for 2025 or that one is more like a medium term target? Thank you.

Good morning, Ernesto, and thanks for joining us in the call. Let me take the second one of the key challenges that we will have. Clearly, I already mentioned part of them, which relate to the fact of the government changes both in Mexico and in the and in the U.S. Clearly, we do not know what is going to happen with the position that Mr. Trump might take to the Mexican economy. Clearly, we saw yesterday some of the things that he did with Colombia, for instance, no? So we can expect a number of things that could go there. Yes, in terms of insecurity, well, we are living in that. That's a fact that we have. And let me tell you that we... we take in qualitas, we have over the last 30 years, we have raised the challenges that we have taken. So that's something that we are going to be doing. You know, regarding the deportation, we don't know what's going to happen. Apparently, I don't know in the end what's going to happen with that, but it seems to be early indications that the government, the Mexican government is is doing some sort of alignment with Mr. Trump. Well, if we set that aside, let me tell you that in the end, independently of a good environment or bad environment in Mexico, we have always raised those challenges. And the main one that we have, and this is our top, that would be our top priority for 2025, would be the excellence in service. Always, we will focus on excellence in service. Service will be top three are service, service, and service. And clearly, we are elements in there that we can also improve. We have a very nice improvement in 2024 of value areas. About a dozen that we have, all but one improved quite significantly. So in terms of that, those are the main challenges. We have the challenge of the turnaround of the US business. Roberto already mentioned something around that. We are on target to the strategy that we changed in early 2023. And obviously the tax situation that we are seeing is something that we are very close, we are following very close, both as Qualitas itself, but also with the industry association. So I would say that those would be, you know, the main challenges that we would be seeing in 2025, but we are really, we have the right team to address it. And if the past is any indication, we are ready to take those challenges on and continue going forward with the expected top line that I already mentioned. And certainly in terms of the net income growth expectation, let me tell Roberto to take that question.

Roberto. Thank you, José Antonio. And let me take the first and the last question, Ernesto. Thank you for the questions. So as you know, we don't disclose specific dates figures on the net income. But however, as José Antonio explained a little bit on the top line, if you go through the different ratios, we would expect to see the loss ratio within our range of 62 to 65, acquisition in the same historical parameters, operands at the historical levels. That would actually get us to combine within the range of 92 to 94. That would also imply that we will be, yes, continuing on growing our earnings and our net income, and we would expect to see an ROE between 20% to 25%. One thing to look after in 2025 is that we do expect, as I already mentioned, that earned premiums will grow ahead as written premiums, so that's something to keep in mind for 2025. Hope that answers your question.

Just let me add to that one. And just to say that you have been following us for quite a long time, Ernesto. So you know that we are targeting into those indexes that Roberto mentioned. So we have been managing our business along with that. And clearly, it is not an exact science, but we are doing that. So I feel confident we're going to be in the low 90s. I mean, in terms of the combined index. And, you know, the numbers that we have are for 2024 are, in my view, very good, at least with what we expected. So we will continue along those lines in terms of the combined index, et cetera. So I feel comfortable in that way.

Perfect. No, super helpful. Just a last question or a follow-up. I think during your presentation, you mentioned you have been doing an internal valuation allowance. Can you elaborate on what was that?

Thank you, Ernesto. Yes, that's related to the U.S. business as we've been very vocal and understanding how the U.S. turnaround is taking time and it has to a strategy very clear. We have been looking at our losses back in 2023 and 2024. That actually, when we look at a reserve constitution that plays a role, but also when we look at our reserve allowance for the deferred tax asset, that also is something that we're taking care of every year. And so far, we've been making some of that allowance to actually, when the business turns around, that's a credit that we will be expecting in the years to come. So that's the allowance I was referring to in my remarks.

Yeah, that's a requirement from outside auditors, but we feel confident that that will, at some point in time, will revert to the P&L in our results.

Can you remind us the size of this valuation allowance?

So far, it's $9.1 million on a year-to-date basis. On a cumulative basis on 2023 and 2024.

So $2 million.

$9.1 million.

Ah, $9.1. Okay, excuse me. And then just any allowance in the VAT litigation process? Nothing because of the external auditor's recommendations? Yes.

Not at all. According to our big four and across the industry, the alignment is that no resource constitution is to be made at this point, nor qualitas, not for the industry.

Well, I would like just also to mention, Ernesto, that the results that we just presented to you guys are non-audited. That's the normal way we do it because the auditors take a couple of months, I mean, for the industry and particularly in the case of Qualitas also that happens. And as every year we have reported this to the regulator, we haven't changed the numbers, but We expect the latest talks that we have had with the external auditors indicate that there's no problems in presenting the results that we're saying, but still we need a full confirmation of the results as they usually do in February. So we don't expect changes, but it's important to point that out.

Okay, no, perfect. Thank you very much, José Antonio and Roberto.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Guilherme Grespin at JP Morgan.

Hey, thank you so much. Good morning, everyone. Just quickly, two follow-ups. Ernesto asked, I think, both of my questions, but just a follow-up. U.S. operations, how much was in net loss in the fourth quarter in 2024? Just to have a reference, how much is the profitability X, those losses in U.S.? And the second question was related to the new administrations, but on the tariff side. I know the probability is still an uncertainty, right? I don't want to touch the probability of happening, but assuming it happens, this kind of bear case scenario, I just wanted to pick your brains on how you think what would be the impact to the business if we do see any potential tariff increases to Mexico going forward. Thank you so much.

Good morning. Good to have you here. I'm going to take the second one. Clearly, this is something that will affect very significantly the Mexican economy, the impact of tariffs. Clearly, Frankly, I would think that it would be a doomsday scenario for Mexico. So I don't think that will in the end happen somehow. So really, in my view, the main impact that we have in the business would be that the cooling of the economy in Mexico. Mexico could enter into a recession. And clearly, we have not done any... any sensitivity of that happening. But let me tell you that usually the insurance business in Mexico and elsewhere, also it's an anti-cyclical thing because when the situation is bad, usually people really want to protect what they have. So typically insurance grows much higher than the economy. So while we don't I don't have a strict answer on that one, on what would be the impact. But I feel confident that probably we would have some pricing pressure, increased pricing pressure, very likely. We had that when the pandemic hit us in 2020. Actually, we manage very well in that situation. So we would have to be agile and we would have to do what we do best, which is maintain our excellence in service and continue improving that and being closer to agents, which by the way, maybe you know, but we have been boarded 50 years in a row, named by outside agents as their preferred insurance company in Mexico for auto insurance. We got the gold standard, and it is very good. So I don't have a real answer, but, you know, an estimate, but clearly the anticyclical part and the fact that we have done that in the past, I'm sure that we could navigate turbulent times. Hopefully that will not have to happen, but we will see. Roberto, you want to take the other one?

Yes, regarding the U.S. business, let me just provide a little bit more color on this. I mentioned a little bit in my remarks that we've been decreasing the domestic volume. Let's keep in mind that by December of last year, 2023, we were at 31% of our business composition and we reduced it back to five. I think it's important to get a composition also on our cross-border as close to 70%. Now, getting back to your question, it's a business that is turning around. And by Q4, we saw a total loss, net loss of $25 million and a full year of around $40 million. I guess it's very important to highlight that this is going to be as low as we've been very clear on. It will continue to take time, and we're making progress, and we're on the right path. So I hope that answers your question, Cloram.

Just to follow up, if I may, do you think it's fair to assume it was $40 million, right, a loss in the year? For 2025, maybe half of that, because I think 26, you guys are indicating breakeven, right? Do you think a reduction of $20 million makes sense?

I mean, we're certainly going to see less of an impact. Half of that is something that is likely and is in round park. We'll obviously have to continue watching how all the legal claims come in. Remember, we're coming from historical claims that could come. We have seen good indicators that they've been reducing over time. So it's a fair assumption. It's in the ballpark, you learn.

That's clear. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andres Soto at Santander.

Good morning, Jose Antonio, Roberto, and Raquel. Thank you for the presentation. I have a few questions regarding the top line growth that you are expecting. And my first question will be, what is your assumption regarding prices in 2025? And in line with that, how do you see competitive environment now that Qualitas competitors are also turning around their operations? Are they becoming more aggressive? Or how do you see the space for increasing prices, especially if needed to keep the loss ratio within the range?

Good morning, Andres. And again, thank you for joining us. Let me tell you that pricing environment clearly is toughening. At this stage, we have taken all the price required. Let me tell you and let me remind everyone that Qualitas has been the leading insurance company taking price increases. I would like to revert probably to what was in the official results from the industry association, the AMIS, because that gives you somewhat of a picture of what is happening, no? Because if we look at the operating result, the total industry association, or the total insurance industry, auto insurance, has a operating result of around 72 million, while we have 20, I mean, I mean, 2,700 million. So we are 97% of the industry. And the reason I'm saying that is because we have been very, very, very disciplined in making sure that the business we underwrite is profitable. Now, how much space we have in pricing? Clearly, I see a lot of more competition, particularly in the area of fleets, for instance. We have a very nice share in the fleet segment, but we see more and more a lot of competition in that area, even though we maintain and we have lost one or two customers there. And usually they come back to us because we continue to do the right service. So to answer specifically, there is not much space, but whatever happens, we're going to be taking the lead to make sure that we have the financial returns that we have. Obviously, we have left businesses that by whatever reason, the pricing is not right. We are not here to have a top line. We are here to make sure that we have a balanced top and a bottom line. So that's very important for us to remind Andres.

That's very clear. Thank you, Antonio. My second question regarding the top line is more on the earned premium side of the equation, right? Roberto already suggested that earned premiums can outpace written premiums in 2025. I would like to just get a sense of how much of that, you know, when we look at the recent results of the company, we see a significant increase in reserve constitution, probably related to a change in the duration mix of the policy portfolio. But I would like to understand how much of additional growth you expect in earned premiums compared with your expectation in written ones. It will be fair to assume that given your guidance, we can expect earnings at the high end of the guidance of the top line growth written at the low end of the guidance. Is that the way that you look at this?

That's a good question, Andres. Let's have Roberto talk about it.

We have that part. Roberto, please. Absolutely. Thank you, Andres. I would expect to see, as I mentioned, more to mid to high teams for M Premium, just because the fact that in 2024 the growth pace was quite significant. And now that the growth will stabilize in the next quarters, actually we'll see those effects. Hope that answered your question, Andres.

And it's also the multi-year policies that really come out to play in this environment. So it's probably in the high teens that we will see.

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Thank you. We have time for one last question. Today, if you have any further questions, please do reach out to the IR team. They are fully available. But we're going to go with Tiago Paura at BTG.

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thank you. Thank you, Raquel, for the opportunity. Good morning, José Antonio. Good morning, Roberto. Congrats on the results. A quick one from my side here. When I take a look at the commission ratio dynamics during 2023, the year-over-year growth in acquisition costs was more in line with the growth observed in earned premiums, meaning there was some gap compared to the written premiums growth. However, that changed a bit in 2024 with commissions costs growing higher. more in line with written premiums rather than your earned premiums. So just trying to... to double back here if there is any, you know, shift in the dynamics related to commissions or if there are any changes on the accounting procedures or just a matter of more reserves being constituted this year when compared to 2023. And what should we expect in terms of, you know, dynamics for commission costs in 2025? Thank you.

Well, Tiago, thank you for the question. Yes, really, we haven't really changed any of the accounting versus previous years. In fact, we haven't really changed our commissions. That's very important to note. That's very, very important to note. And we haven't really changed our conditions on any of our segments. We're being very consistent. What probably what you're seeing is a mix of segments given driven by the increase on our traditional segment, particularly on fleets. that it has a lower commission rate compared to, let's say, special businesses or the financial institution business, and also the multi-year split versus the annual year split versus 2023. That could give you some of the drivers. But overall, when we're talking about our expectations, we continue to expect to be in our range of 20% to 22% on our acquisition.

There is one additional element to what Roberto just said, And it is related to the fact that our profitability has improved because part of the commissions are also, we are also compensated based on combined ratio results. So that also we are coming from a couple of years of low, I mean, of let me put it high combined index, which has been decreasing. And that also plays down into the commission. But I mean, on a variable basis, it's not an issue, as Roberto indicated. There are no changes, not in the amount of commissions, nor in the accounting.

All right. Super clear. Thank you. Thank you, José Antonio and Roberto.

Thank you all. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.