This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Redeia Corp U/Adr
7/31/2024
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We're starting our presentation for the results of the first half of 2024. We welcome all those who follow us over the phone and on the website. With us are Roberto García Merino, Chief Executive Officer, and Emilio Cerezo, Chief Financial Officer. I now give the floor to our CEO, Roberto García Merino. Thank you, Sol.
And good morning, everyone. Welcome. And thank you for attending this presentation, where we're going to be sharing the most relevant milestones of the first half of the 2024 financial year with you, looking at Redella's performance and the results of the group's performance over the period. We'll wrap up giving you our vision for this year and reviewing progress in achieving the targets under our current 2021-25 strategy plan. Moreover, at the end of the presentation, we'll open the floor to Q&A and we hope to answer any questions you might have. So, let me start the presentation by identifying the highlights of the period. Electricity grids are essential in the transformation towards a more efficient, more resilient and environmentally responsible system. And at Redella, we know that we have a unique opportunity leading the deployment of transmission grids to achieve an emission-free model. We continue to make progress then in our commitment to fight against climate change and proof of this is the percentage of renewables we've got in the first half of 2024 in our national generation mix. That's continued to increase to average levels of around 60%. Now with this boost to renewables, 78.4% of the energy generated in the first half of the year came from emission-free sources. The mainland generation structure continues to be led by wind energy, although we've also seen a notable advance in photovoltaic solar energy, PV energy that is. And I'd like to highlight that on the 21st of June, PV solar energy beat its daily production record. putting out 201 gigawatt hours which accounted for 26.8 percent of the total output of the day and i should also note that we're observing a possible change in trend in the evolution of demand with growth in the last six months of close to one percent after many months of flat performance as well as a reduction in electricity prices in the spot market with figures well below the average values of 2022 the year when russia invaded ukraine thanks to the availability of hydro, wind and PV energy well above the usual levels. This success is underpinned by a sound electricity transmission grid and the flexibility measures implemented by the system operator, in which we are a world pioneer. Thus, the mainland grid has integrated around 98% of renewable production. Or, to put it another way, the level of spillage due to grid restrictions has been around 2%. That's well below the 5% established by European regulations. From a global perspective, as a roadmap for a decarbonized economy and a country that's integrated and energy cohesive with Europe, we have the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, known as the NIEC, whose update is expected to be approved very soon. with ambitious goals such as achieving a 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions against 1990, reaching 48% of renewable energy in the final use of energy, or 81% of renewable energy in electricity generating, whilst reducing energy dependence to 51%. So that's how Spain is moving forward on its path towards compliance with the Paris Accord, a historic milestone to combat climate change and accelerate actions and investments for a sustainable future. To meet the PNEIC targets and to incorporate the energy policy defined at state and European level, the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge has initiated a new electricity planning process for 2025-30. This planning will set out the development needs of the electricity transmission grid up until 2030, reinforcing existing infrastructures and promoting new facilities. The process is structured in six stages and we're currently in the stage of preliminary studies. Having gone through the initial stage of proposals, which will last until next October, when the initial development proposal will be finalised and actually sent to the Ministry. Final planning should be approved in 2025, we think. In a context in which the relevance of grids for the energy transition has become so important, we can say that Redella's investment drive is and will be fundamental in coming years. There, during the first six months of 2024, we have invested over 420 million euros in the TSO. That's 19% higher than the investment made in the same period of 2023. And that highlights the actions related to international interconnections, links between islands and energy storage, making progress towards meeting the goal of getting 1 billion euros investment by the end of the year. That's the largest investment ever made in the history of Red Electrica. I'd like to highlight that the recent approval of the modification of specific aspects of the current planning has increased investment by 489 million euros. That's yet another sign of the need for grid development as this amount has been allocated to a set of urgent actions, 23 of which are intended to meet requests for new high power demands. nine actions for storage and renewable generation, three to cover operational needs, and 38 to meet needs arising in the execution of the planning itself. In addition, the addendum to the Spanish Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, which channels the European Next Gen funds, includes an item to finance the development of electricity infrastructures in the transmission grid of 931 million euros. The application of these funds has yet to be regulated under royal decree, but that royal decree should be published in 2024. In this context of heavy investment, the incorporation of improvements in the remuneration model for the next regulatory period starting in 2026 is essential to obtain a reasonable return on this deployment of essential infrastructures for the energy transition in Spain. During the first half of the year, we've seen numerous advances in the regulatory field, starting with the approval at the beginning of the year of a timeline set by the CNMC, which included the modification of circular 2 slash 2019 to make certain adjustments to the methodology for calculating the TRF, adapting it to the challenges of the energy transition and to enable efficient investment in networks. In addition, a set of public consultations on various regulatory issues were held between May and July, which established some changes between this year and 2025. First of all, the CNMC opened a specific public consultation on the financial remuneration rate for the next regulatory period, that's 2026 to 31. and another specific consultation on the review of the methodology for calculating the remuneration of the electricity transmission activity for the next period. The purpose of this is to ensure that the methodology finally adopted will be properly adapted to changes stemming from the decarbonization process, ensuring a balance between the development of infrastructures, efficient use of existing grids and the incorporation of the new features expected of them, associated to digitalisation and the new figures emerging in the electricity market. Also, the Ministry has opened a public consultation on the modification of the network investment limit. And finally, talking about regulatory developments, you should note that the public hearing has begun on the draft bill to re-establish the National Energy Commission with the aim of having a specialist regulator and supervisor. This adds to the attempts of the Spanish energy system to decarbonize As you can see, there have been many important milestones over this period and we expect the second part of 2024 to continue to be full of relevant events for the TSO. In coming months, we expect the final resolution of the transmission remuneration for the years 2022 and 23 and the draft of the new planning for the period 2025 to 30. Already by the end of the year, the hearing process for the modification of the circular where the financial remuneration rate for the next regulatory period will be established. Moreover, from a group perspective, we've continued to strengthen our diversification businesses. At international level, following the commercial operation of our latest projects in Peru, Chile, and Brazil, we continue to consolidate our activity and promote our sustainable development outside Spain. In our satellite business, as you know, the entry into operation of the new Amazonas Nexus satellite put into service a year ago stands out. And we also made progress in the commercial deployment of the ONICON Rural Demand Programme, which guarantees access to broadband connection in the rural areas where there's a limited access to traditional networks. So to wrap up on our diversification businesses, to talk about fiber optic business, we can say it's maintaining its sound and stable business model in order to offer universal connectivity with a contractual structure that accompanies the current macroeconomic environment. And now, I'd like to say that recently, We have got the performance that is now going to be discussed with the earnings that we got for this first half of the year. As I was saying, I want to talk about the earnings that we got in the first half year. And these results have been, as you all know, marked by the end of the regulatory useful life of the pre-1998 assets. The yearly impact on revenues of this amounts to approximately 260 million euros and that generates a negative hit on all the different lines of the group's income statement. However, the results obtained in the first half of the year are online with what we were expecting and in line with market expectations. CAPEX in the first six months was also very high. with more than 457 million euros investment, of which 421 million euros are for investment of TSO investment. And that confirms our objective of exceeding 1 billion euros of investment by the end of the year. Also, following the approval of the general shareholder meetings, a final dividend was paid against the 2023 earnings of 0.7273 euros per share. It was paid out on the 1st of July, fulfilling our market commitments reaching a total dividend against last year's earnings of €1 per share. If we look at the income statement as a whole, we can see the impact of what's been going on with the pre-98 assets we already mentioned. However, if we get a like-for-like basis that is eliminating the effect of these assets in both years, that is the investment remuneration obtained in 2023 and 2024, the income associated with the life extension incentive, which we call REVU, or R-E-V-U, we can say that the performance of our business has been positive, with growth in all the key lines on the profit and loss account and a net profit growing over 5%. A breakdown of EBITDA in the first half of the year shows that, with the exception of the TSO, all businesses contributed positively, especially the international transmission business, which grew by more than 12%. I'd also like to highlight that 80% of the group's EBITDA comes from regulated businesses, both here in Spain and worldwide in the international markets. In short, if we disregard the adjustment of pre-98 acids, which we already knew about from 2013 and are already included in all of our estimates and plans, the results for the first half of the year are positive and allow us to foresee a year-end in line with the commitments made at the beginning of the year. which we'll discuss later. So I'll now hand over to Emilio Cerezo who will analyze these earnings in more detail.
Thank you, Roberto. Taking a deeper look at the evolution of revenues, these declined by 10.9% affected by the aforementioned pre-'98 effect where the positive performance in the rest of businesses. on a like-for-like basis, excluding the effect of pre-'98 assets, we observed a growing performance of revenues by 1.6%. In international business, we can basically highlight the positive performance of Brazil, partially offset by lower revenues from projects for third parties and from TEN in Chile. In the satellite business, I would highlight the contribution of the Amazonas Nexus satellite, operational since July 23, as well as the contribution of its investee, Hisdesat, which has shown positive results during the first half of the year. Also growing are revenues from the fiber optic business, favored by the positive effect of inflation linked to nature of their main contract. If we focus on the evolution of other operating expenses, OPEX grow by 4.1%. However, excluding expenses that have a counterpart in other operating income, we do observe that operational expenses are contained and were reduced by 1%. As a matter of fact, the first thing we observe is a higher expenses with a counterpart in other operating income, such as chair Soria and projects for third parties. Other external costs are reduced by 3.9 million due to a lower asset maintenance at the CEO, that's about 6 million, as a consequence of the completion of an extraordinary plan in 2023, partially offset by higher expenses for European projects of the system operator. During the second half of the year, Further costs will be reduced, says the aforementioned plan, was mostly run during the second half of 2023. On the other hand, staff expenses grow by 0.8 million euros due to a higher average headcount and offset by the non-recurring effect of new collective bargain agreement during the first half of 2023. Revenues and expenses brings us to an EBIT showing a reduction of 13.8% compared to the previous year. Without the impact of pre-'98 assets, this performance would have been 3.5% higher. The positive contribution of all groups' businesses has enabled this performance. And to wrap up the income statement, our net profit was €269 million, or 24% lower than the one recorded during the first half of the previous year, and matching our estimates. Standardizing this figure, as we have done in the rest of the income statement, our growth would be 5.2%. This can be explained by several reasons beyond the EBITDA performance. On the one hand, the amortizations show an increase, mainly at Hispasat, due to the new satellite and service AMZ Nexus. And on the other hand, the financial result took a slight dip due to the higher average cost of debt, which went from 2.11% to 2.22% at the end of June 2024. partially offset by higher financial income coming from efficient financial management for placing existing liquidity. The corporate income tax went down due to lower profit before taxes and minority interests did increase by 1.9 million euros. Going into investments during the first half of the year, 457 million euros were invested, out of which 421 million are investments in the TSO, exceeding the investment made in the previous year by 19% and consolidating the significant effort made by the company to accelerate investment in the transmission network. about strategic TSO projects, we can highlight the following. First of all, the electricity interconnection between Spain and France through the Bay of Biscay, which continues to progress with the aim of reaching the commissioning milestone for the first link in 2027. We also continue to make progress in the Peninsula-Suta interconnection. As a matter of fact, in June, we got the administrative authorization to authorize civil works for said interconnection. As for the Galicia-Portugal interconnection access, during May, the BRS station was commissioned. and the rest of planned actions remain as planned for the rest of 2024 to complete the strengthening of the international connection with Portugal. And finally, about storage in the Canary Islands, civil works continue on the reversible hydroelectric plant to integrate renewable energies into the electricity system in Gran Canaria to store this energy so that it can be used at the appropriate times. The evolution of international business involved only 2 million euros investment, half of which were devoted to a control center in Chile along with the ENI group. Investment in the satellite business totaled 7.8 million euros, mostly linked to satellite capacity leasing. I would like to insist that over 92% of our investments are eligible under the European taxonomy, thus reinforcing our commitment to sustainability. In addition, I would like to conclude this section on OPEX by adding that we do have long-term framework agreements with our main supplier, which allows us to move ahead on our scheduled plan to optimize and streamline the procurement process while minimizing risks in the supply chain. about our balance sheet net financial debt for the group at the end of the first half stands at 5.1 billion euros 130 million above december 2023 are the operating cash flow generating during the first half of the year exceeded 460 million euros mainly due to two factors first the generation of cash flow from operations of €693 million, including the collection of the 2022 income tax refund for €193 million, coming mostly from the capital gain after the sale of Riantel. And the second one is the increase in working capital for €230 million as a consequence of the refund of part of the excess tariffs collected in previous years. The outstanding amount at the end of the first half of the year reaches €166 million and is expected to be repaid in oncoming months. Considering all of the above and the investments made during the year plus the payment of dividends, the net financial debt goes up by 2.7%, showing solid financial ratios and maintaining a credit rating of A- by Standard & Poor's and Fitch. On the makeup of our financial debt, I must highlight the diversification in terms of sources of finances, with 92% of it at fixed rate until maturity and with a clear predominance of euros over other currencies. Thanks to this structure, we have maintained a competitive average cost of debt in the present environment at 2.22%. During the next four years, we will face maturities of approximately 3.2 billion euros, mostly covered by our solid liquidity position, which was reinforced after the recent issue of a green bond for 500 million euros through Radea Corporation, which contributes to linking 66% of our financing to sustainable criteria. Having analysed at the end of the first half of the year, I will now give the floor back to our CEO for him to explain our vision for the end of 2024 and the progress of our strategic plan 2021-2025.
Thank you, Emilia. As we've said in the past, 2023 was a turning point for us. our tso business as we speeded up our investment plans and began to see the fruits of the company's effort to achieve a significant pace of investment now in midway through 2024 we confirm that we are maintaining this positive investment path focused on reaching levels of around 1 billion euros these levels have never ever been seen in the company before Furthermore, I'd like to remind you that this CAPEX commitment is not just a 2024 milestone, but that we're in a position to ensure that it will continue at these levels for years to come. as we've been observing. 2024 is a year mainly marked by the end of the useful life of the pre-98 assets, which cease to receive part of their remuneration. That gives us a net impact on our revenues of 260 million euros. And without a doubt, this aspect, which we already knew was going to happen, is a big negative hit, but it also means that 2024 will set the baseline for future growth of Res Electrica. where we predict a positive trend in earnings from this financial year onwards as the new projects come into service. Internationally, we're consolidating our activity after commissioning the last projects underway in 2023. In the satellite business, Amazonas Nexus will continue to make a positive contribution and the fiber optic business will continue to show stable revenues contractually hedged against inflation. All of this allows us to confirm the guidance we gave at the beginning of the year, with an estimated EBITDA at year-end 2024 of over €1.3 billion and a net profit of around €500 million. Debt will increase, taking into account the significant increase in investments we need to fund, and will stand at around €5.7 billion by the end of the year. This level of debt is better than the approximately €6 billion we mentioned in our February earnings call, and that's due to a better collection part of the regulated tariff and the delay in the estimated return to the electricity system of certain collection items from previous years. And now to wrap up, I'd like to talk about the progress made in meeting our strategy plan and on the status of our achievement of objectives for 2025. By 2025, our capex target is around 5 billion euros. After increases from the initial plan we originally presented in 2021, that accounts for an increase of over 15%. In terms of the rollout of our plan, we can say that in general terms, the development of investment is progressing according to plan, with the pace and volume committed in the case of the TSO increasing in all lines. To conclude, once again, we can reaffirm our financial targets until 2025, offering attractive shareholder remuneration and maintaining a sound financial structure. So many thanks for your attention. And having finished this presentation as such, we're now happy to take any questions you might have.
Thank you very much.
If you have any questions, can you submit them in writing over the webcast? And if you're connected on a telephone line, Press asterisk one on your touchpad. The first question comes from Javier Suarez from Mediobanca. Go ahead, please. Yes. Hello. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the presentation. Now, I've got various questions. The first one has to do with the timing of this update of your business plan. My question would be, when will the company feel itself in a position to update the market on its business plan, maybe extending the time horizon up to 2030? It's clear that there are certain elements that are still lacking, but I'd like to know more or less how you see the timing. What would be the perfect time to make that presentation to give us the visibility of the plan, which is currently ending in 2025? My second question has to do with your outlook for the new regulatory period. What kind of remuneration will you expect to get on invested capital? Some companies have been sharing their outlook with the market talking about the possible return we could expect after 2026. And do you feel that you're in a position to talk about a range of appropriate returns that you might expect to give us an idea of what you get on the transmission grid and in the remuneration rate and then capex? In the presentation, you mentioned that the minimum level of CapEx could be about 1 billion. But this minimum level of CapEx, is it realistic? Because it would be interesting not just to have the minimum, but to know what you really expect as the most probable scenario. Thank you.
Javier, thank you very much for your questions.
And yes, well, as to your first question about when we'll be ready. To put out our strategy review, well, I'd say over the next few four or five months, we should have a couple of parameters which we really need before we can put out our new strategy plan. The scope of the investments and there. In the first draft of the new planning, which we estimate should be announced around October, we'll already have a first point of reference. And obviously the second one would be the estimated TRF that the CNMC would give us for December this year. So in the current strategy plan, it goes up until the end of 2025, as you know. But I'd say that once we've got clear visibility of these two essential parameters, probably over the first half of 2025, although this obviously depends on when we get access to the draft planning and the initial TRF review, Obviously, we have to have an internal debate in the board but I imagine it would be in the first half of next year. And then what we're expecting with respect to your second question, Javier, of the new regulatory model? Well, in general, something better than what we've currently got. I think the current regulatory model doesn't really match the kind of needs we currently have in the deployment of infrastructures. And that's true for us and for other agents within this sector. So we're having an ongoing talks with the CNC and we expect to get a clear enhancement of the current 558 level but there are other parameters, other criteria in the model as well. Above all for the transmission grid that should also be analyzed and in our opinion improved on. So what we're expecting? is clearly a significant improvement in the TRF within a range similar to other companies. But this I'd say is pretty clear. And then we are analyzing alternatives and talking to the CNMC to improve their remuneration standards. So we are thinking of bench lines in investment costs that we've had from 10 years back now. and other things are taken up in other regulatory frameworks at European level like the remuneration of works in progress or the incorporation of inflation into the remuneration model. But in general lines, what we're expecting is a significant improvement in TRF and a general improvement in the regulatory framework. And then capex. Well, as you so correctly say, we are reckoning on getting record levels for the company. It's true. We've been preparing for this for some time now so that we can really ratchet things up. I can remind you that we're pretty well trebling the level of annual capex that we've been reporting in September. the last few years and we're now getting ready to take on additional volumes over and above that billion which would be an average that we're expecting for the future. We are getting the staff and resources we need. We've got the capacity to execute our plan but we have to see the kind of thresholds that will be finally established for the plan. But the hard groundwork's already been done. Changing from 400 to over a billion euros makes us ready when the time comes for additional investments in our business.
Muchas gracias.
Thank you. Next question from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. Go ahead, please. Hello. Good morning, Roberto, Emilio. I have two questions for you. The first one is about the funds you're expecting from the EU. What's your best estimate about when these funds might come in and how serious are those funds for this year and next year? And the second part of the question is about your balance between investments and dividends for the next years with the growth of investment but also the growth of the company bottom line. How do you perceive that equilibrium to keep up your payout at some point of the next strategy period for perhaps a potential increase? Thank you, Fernando. About EU funds, well, those funds are validated, confirmed, 931 million euros. That would go to funding commissioning of investment assets until June 26. We're still pending for the new regulation to see what happens, to see how access to those funds will be regulated. And we expect those developments to be enforced before the end of this year. And I think this will come as an important support in terms of additional funds at a time when, as you correctly say, investment volumes will stress the company's financial position. So we expect those funds to be cleared this year so that we can bring them into our balance sheet structure for the next couple of years. To the second part of your question, I believe that it will all depend on the regulation framework that we use for our new strategy plan. Just as we remain consistent when drafting the present strategy plan and had to make a decision to reduce our dividend payout because we needed to manage the adjustment of pre-'98 assets. We are also consistent now if the group's financial capability so allows. In a growth scenario that's still demanding in terms of investment, we might consider accompanying that growth with dividends, RAF, or EBITDA. So depending on the regulation framework, well, you know that we have remained a consistent company in our takes. Our starting point is a very strong, solid balance sheet. I believe we're one of the few companies with best balance sheet structure to tackle demanding years in terms of capex. So that will probably allow us to generate consistent scenarios in the growth of EBITDA, dividends, or RWAs. That would be consistent with the company's philosophy.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from Ignacio Dominique from JB Capital. Go ahead, please. Hello, good morning. Thank you for your explanations. I've got two questions. First of all, about your CapEx plan. We will have the draft, I believe, when we come back from summer holidays. And you talked about that billion that you're going to be investing. Well, does this include some of the subsidies, basically? What kind of figures do you have? should we establish for the forthcoming strategy plan in net terms netting out the subsidies? And then the dividend payout policy, and this is related to what Fernando asked. There too, I'd like to know what we should think about in terms of payout, FFO, for the forthcoming strategy plan. Can you give us any idea of what might happen with your payout policy? Thank you, Ignacio. The capex plan, well, that one billion or more as an average investment level is what we are expecting. And until we know in detail what the planning draft looks like, it's simply an order of magnitude that we're using. But we reckon it's valid. And it's definitely a minimum level. And we're expected to keep up this pace of investment over several years so that we have funding coming in and resources that we need. And we are expecting success. We're already seeing it. So I think it's a useful baseline. We've set it as a minimum, really. And we'll just have to wait and see what's going to happen to the EU funds to see how it affects the RIP in general. But until we actually know the details about the deployment of the fund, we won't actually know what kind of returns we'll be able to establish using these European funds. And you ask about the payout and there I think that we just have to wait because obviously we really need to know what the investment plan is going to entail and the remuneration and regulatory framework so we have concrete parameters to follow. It obviously has to be in line with the current payout policy and I think it would be a bad idea to think about talking about specific figures yet.
Next question, Manuel Palomo from BNP. Go ahead, please.
I have three questions for you.
Thank you for taking my questions. First, we observe that there are plenty of other operators preparing their balance sheet via capital increase, asset sales to face this new wave of CapEx which seems to be higher than many foresaw. So my question is can you give us some update on any possible disinvestment? not only in Esposat, but also in the international business. Will you be doing this to focus more on the domestic business? That's the first question. The second, well, I'm sure you've heard a lot of noise about data centers. So could you give us an idea about the present demand, or at least last year's demands for data centers in Spain? Are they doubling, tripling, growing in order of magnitude? What's the long-term impact, if you know it? And third, rather than a question, it's an opinion. When I saw your slide about the national plans, slide number five, I would like to know why approval has not come in yet as it was expected for June this year. And also, does it make sense from your perspective to talk about 76 gigabytes solar when the demand in Spain does not even reach 40 gigawatts an hour? Are you capacity agnostic and the bigger the better because that will probably imply more investment in networks? Is that your perspective? Copy that, Manuel. About the strength of the balance sheet. We have a very solid starting point. As you know, our starting point is A minus with robust financials that will allow us to face any investment volume scenario reasonably without having to resort to disinvestment or capital increases. And beyond that, we have other levers we can play with if we have to. As you probably say, Redella's priority requires deploying all the infrastructures needed for progress in Spain for developing the plan and we have a robust plan to face those investments. We're already counting on the sale back of Reintel four years ago to put non-core assets in the market and both Hispasat and the international business would behave the same way if there were any firm signs of interest. We would analyze that in our board of directors considering our strategic approach and the generation of value to our shareholders. Those would be our assumptions for any non-core assets in the company. But as I said, beyond that we have other drivers to support financial needs like perhaps disposing of non-strategic assets and also the alternative that Emilio can describe to resort to hybrid funding as we have done in the past. In that case, we have some surplus capacity that we could draw from. Emilio, would you like to say something about that? Yes, thank you for the question, Manuel Roberto. Certainly, as additional drivers to finance our demanding CAPEX plan for the next few years, there are several aspects we can draw from. European funds, as Fernando de la Fuente mentioned in one of his questions. These will be approximately 930 million euros. and are expected to work as subsidies. So in terms of the balance sheet, we will be reinforced. And as Roberto also said, we can always do hybrid financing. Last year, we invested in half a billion in hybrid bonds. In our next strategy plan, we were already contemplating issuing one billion bonds. We did not issue those this year. Perhaps we're not considering that option for 25 either, but we will always have this possibility issuing hybrid bonds. which would give us an extra capacity to the half billion we already have in our issuing capacity. It rests around 1.2, 1.3 to issue additional hybrid bonds that, as you know, is 50% equity in booking to reinforce our bottom line and our credit quality ratios in a scenario where investments will grow more tense, at least in Spain. But the credit qualification ratio aspires to a solid investment grade for our rating and that's part of our strategic plan now and from now on. Yes, as Emilio was saying, our starting point is exceptionally solid in financial terms and we have other tools we can apply. in terms of funding so we are not considering too big a stress on our financial muscle to take on whatever comes our way. As for the second part of your question, data center demand, it doesn't look significant for us today. Perhaps as a reference point, we could go to the AI report from the Ministry of Digital Transformation, which estimates an equivalent demand of 2.5 gigabytes by 2030. That feels like the sole reference out there to look to. the forecast from the Ministry of Digital Transformation. Also, as I said before, we're in the process of re-planning and I am sure that in the proposal stage, which concluded in May this year, new applications were considered. So all we have to go by for now is that report from the Ministry of Digital Transformation. As for the national plan, the PNIEC It's government-defined, and our role is doing everything we can to reach the targets expressed in the national plan without challenging whether the references are more or less aggressive. We're not here to do that. We're here to meet the national plan defined by the government.
There aren't any more questions then in Spanish, so let's open the line for questions coming in in English.
Thank you. Our first question today comes from Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. Arthur, your line is open. Please go ahead. because we have lost Arthur's line. So we have no questions at this time. There are no more questions on the conference call.
Okay, then let's take the questions we've got by mail, some of which have already been answered. So let's go with the others. Jose Ruiz from Barclays has got two questions. The first one is, where are you seeing the most demand and dissatisfaction in your network? Is it... related to which side and for 2024 what kind of debt targets do you have and how much of excess tariff will feed into that? Perfect. Okay, thank you. Let's see. I think that in the grid, the transmission grid that is, we should be very proud of the system we currently have in Spain. The infrastructure I think is one of the best systems worldwide. The system in terms of its sizing is able to cover current demand and the current request for access and connections, which is really based on the current system we have for transmission. I don't have data on the volume of demand that isn't covered by distribution in transmission. I'd say the level of coverage, however, is going to be, well, maximum levels worldwide, I'd say. As I said, the quality of the management of our grid and the transmission system and the system operation is really excellent quality. And if we look at the integration of renewables as a percentage in the mix, let's remember minus 2% spillage for a system of more than 50% renewable energy feed-in. It's well below the benchmark established of 5% at European level. So right now, I'd say that there aren't any problems in covering demand, nor do we expect to have problems with the kind of investment we're having for further deployment in the future. And then the impact of 20... Well, the level of net financial debt we're estimating for year N24, excluding hybrids, is 5.7 billion euros. I'd remind you that at the end of the first half, we're already at 5.11. So we can see that the increase is due to the payout we made in June and the increase in capex that we'll have in the second half of the year. So to answer your question, approximately, we're estimating that by the end of the year, we'll have about... 100 million euros which are pending in returns against the system because of the forward payments already made and we expect by the end of the first quarter of 2025 this will be regularized on a definitive basis so that this situation will come to an end which is a situation that we've had to live through over the last few months. In the current budgeting, and what's the impact in 2025 and in the future for Redeia? Indeed, that is one of the most relevant matters. We have been discussing that with the CNMC. The work in progress is... always used in remuneration programs throughout Europe and in Spain indeed. The ministry considers it's appropriate to give a remuneration on work in progress for Soria and the Canaries as well. And it makes sense that it should be incorporated into the new regulatory review given the volume of investment that we're going to have to roll out in the next few years and the type of projects. that we're deploying in our transmission grid. Normally, we're talking about long-term deployment and that requires disbursement of everything on long periods of five, six years of preliminary financing. And we think it's more than reasonable, just in line with other European models and in line with the considerations of the ministry regarding that we should include this in the next stage. And it's significant as well. As you know, if we look at the amount of work in progress we're talking about for 2025, for example, we're talking about levels, including Cirasoria, of 1.5 billion euros required to have upfront funding of the whole CAPEX plan required by the energy transition. And evidently, we consider it only makes sense to incorporate this with the measures approved by the Ministry under the new regulatory framework.
The last questions come from Marching, from Bank of America. The first would be, do we have one of the best ratings in the sector? If we intend to keep one less, if there are opportunities for investment. And the second question is about the return of taxes associated with Reintel of 193 million, if it is in line with our expectations and if it contributes to the improvement of net debt.
Perfect. I give you a vision of... Emilio will comment a little more in detail. The level of less has never been an objective for Redella. I think it is the result of a solid strategy of financing the group and responsible for the future that we could find. and that is what will allow us to finance in a solid and secure way the investment plan for the coming years. It is not a goal, we are obviously always going to do a management to maintain a solid credit rating, but it is consistent that in an investment environment as broad as the one we are going to manage in the coming years, it is less, which is the current credit level, strategy that will allow us to face the next cycle comfortably.
Yes, actually we do not have a specific rating target Our objective is keeping a solid rating that has always been Redella's philosophy on the matter, particularly considering the serious CapEx we expect to deploy in the next few years and the new funds that will come our way. Obviously, our pledge is maintaining a high rating That's our commitment and our pledge for the next few years. And as for the next part of your question about the tax returns on the capital gains of 193 million euros after selling reintel, it was perfectly within our forecasts. And it had no additional impact on our financial debt estimates. It was fully factored in And when we settled the corporate tax, we had to make some higher early payments. preliminary payment, and we already knew that this tax return would come in in January for exactly the amount we had estimated. With this, we'll finish today's presentation. As usual, the RI team is available for any extra clarifications. Thank you very much, everyone, and have a good summer.