10/31/2024

speaker
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining Renesas' fiscal 24 Q3 earnings call. Simultaneous interpretation is available today. Please tap on the interpreter icon at the bottom of your screen and select the language of your choice. Speakers, please turn your videos on. We have with us today our representative executive officer and CEO, Hidetoshi Shibata, and our senior vice president and CFO, Shuhei Shinkai. We also have some members of our staff here present. Mr. Shibata will welcome you, and after Mr. Shinkai will explain about our Q3 results. This will be followed by a Q&A session. The earnings call will be about 60 minutes long. Materials that will be used today is available on our IR section on our website. So Mr. Shibata, over to you. Please turn your mic on. Good morning, everyone. This is Shibata. I'm sure that some of you have already seen the numbers.

speaker
Shibata

But for third quarter results, we thought we were stepping on the brakes before.

speaker
Operator

But we needed to step on the brakes more. That's how we see the results. Revenue-wise, excluding FX, in fact, we were within our guidance range. However, for end demand, more than expected, it became weaker. Therefore, channel inventory-wise, more than expected, we saw an increase. In the fourth quarter of the year, we would like to reduce the inventory levels. So that's one thing we would like to take on. Inclusive of that, for Q4 guidance, we are expecting a significant decline in revenue, close to 20%, out of which a quarter is expected to be impacted by the stronger yen. So when you take that item out, the impact is about a revenue decline of 15%. So earlier I talked about channel inventory and that we are going to reduce inventory. About a third of the 15% comes from that effort. So when you look at the mix, what reflects demand compared to the 20% significant number, it's about half. that's attributed to end demand, I would say more or less around 10% of the revenue decline is the substantial guidance. Timing-wise, there was a slight shift and Mr. Shinkai may refer to this later and we could also take on your questions in Q&A, When you look at our performance year over year, automotive still mid single digit growth has been observed. So stepping on the brakes during the fourth quarter may have been a surprise for some of you. But before I was saying that we had a lot to regret in the previous results, but this time around, it's more about taking a deep breath and engaging in measures in anticipation of the future. So from that perspective. Automotive on an annual basis is still on a growth trajectory, so. We would like to take on the long term challenges and implement measures steadily. So now without further ado, I would like to pass over to Mr. Shinkai, who will talk about the actual numbers. Then after we would like to move on to Q&A like we always do. Mr. Shinkai, please. Hello, I am Shinkai, the CFO. I'd like to talk about Q3 results. I'm going to be talking off the material that is on our IR site. Next page, please. And next page, please. Here's a disclaimer page. At the very bottom, please look at the bottom bullet. We concluded the acquisition of Altium as of August 1st, 24th, and it's been consolidated from August. So for Q3 results, Altium performance is included. Regarding segment allocation, it is mostly included under industrial infrastructure and IoT for PPA. In the full year results, we expect to close and we will like to retrospectively revise the actual impact. And next page talks about the results. Look at the dark blue column that shows Q3 results. So for revenue, we were at 345.3 billion yen. Gross margins were 55.9%. Operating profit were 93%. 8.4 billion, and operating profit margins were 28.5%. Net income was 86 billion, EBITDA 121.4 billion, and currency rates were 154 yen to the dollar and 168 yen to the euro. The comparison gets our forecast. Please look at the row that is the third to the right. Looking at Q3 results, please look at the left column. Excluding August and September LTM impact, please look at the part that says LTM excluded, which is the fourth row. So compared to forecast by item, please look at the top right. For revenue, compared to forecast median, we were slightly below. but we were within the lower end of our range. Altium's consolidation, if it didn't exist, we would have been below the forecast range due to a stronger yen. In IIoT especially, industrial and mass market contributed significantly negatively. And for automotive and mobile, it was slightly positive compared to expectations. And for gross margins, We were at 55.9% for the quarter, which was slightly above our median forecast. If we excluded LTM consolidation, it was at 54.9%, which was slightly below 55.5% of the forecast median. The reason is because due to less utilization, the production recovery decrease was the main factor. And because of cutting inventory, During Q3, input and production was cut, and operating margin-wise, we were at 28.5%, and this was above our forecast median. And the impact from LTM's consolidation was neutral. And compared to forecast, OPEX went down, and this was mainly due to cost control.

speaker
Shinkai

So it was down on a net-net basis when you account for LTM impact. Q1Q, looking at the bottom right, or revenue, Q1Q,

speaker
Operator

it went down by 3.8%. LTM and FX impact excluded, it was 5.5% more or less decline.

speaker
Shinkai

And for gross margins, Q1Q, it went down by 0.9 points.

speaker
Operator

Due to less production recovery, Q1Q, it went down by 200 basis points. On the other hand, Because of LTM consolidation, part of it was offset. And for operating margins, in one queue, it went down by 2.3 points. Like mentioned earlier, we did cost control. But in queue three, because transform and LTM was consolidated, OPEX, the base, went up. So as a result, operating margins, Q on Q, went down by 2.3 points. Segment-wise, for automotive and IIoT, for automotive, gross margins, operating margins went down Q on Q, and the utilization decline impact was substantial for IIoT, for gross margins, LTMs, consolidation impact was a positive. Apart from that, the trends were the same as automotive. And for operating margins, on top of utilization declines, OPEX cuts and cost control was able to offset the negative coming from sales volume decline. Next page, please. So here are the quarterly trends of revenue. For Q3, the results are on the right-hand side. Overall, we saw revenue decline of 9%, and Q1Q revenue declined by 3.8%. By segment, it is as shown here. And for FX year-on-year, overall, the impact was about 3 percentage points, and it had the same impact by segment. In Q1Q, it was about less than 1% of an impact. And for LTM consolidation, which I would like to comment on, for IIoT, it is recognized here, most of it actually. And revenue-wise, year-on-year, it's three points worth of contribution. Therefore, for IIoT year-on-year results, it says minus 24.3%. But when you exclude the FX impact and LTM impact, it was close to minus 30% of a decline, or it's actually a weak end, not a strong end of an impact. Next page, please.

speaker
OPEX

And here we are looking at trends in financial indicators. And let us look at the cash flow, free cash flow. Please take a look.

speaker
Shinkai

Exempted M&A impact.

speaker
OPEX

in Q3, and we have also exempted the outlays for LTM acquisition. The free cash flow is negative quarter on quarter. Q3 is negative periodical cash out items, namely corporate tax payment and interim bonus payment, have taken place. There have also been one-time items which include the foundry prepayment for capacity built up. This has contributed to the decline in numbers. And Q4 will return basically to normal.

speaker
Shinkai

And then going on to the next page, and to the left-hand side, we have the inventory, sales channel inventory to the right,

speaker
OPEX

The change factors, now let us look at the in-house inventory DOI. As earlier mentioned in the Q3 results, during Q3, production adjustments took place, input reduction also have taken place, resulting in lower utilization rate.

speaker
Shinkai

Due to higher N,

speaker
OPEX

And also, DOI, we have seen a decline. And this is for Q3. And as for Q4, further production adjustments for own plans will take place. And there will also be a reduction in die bank and foundry goods. In actual value terms, Q and Q is expected to decline. Yet, there'll be a cutback in scale. And therefore, we can expect DOI to increase. To the bottom right-hand corner, we have the sales channel inventory. Q3 results showed Q on Q increase, and as for WI, 11.1 weeks. And in terms of the actuals, increase for auto and for IIoT, a decline.

speaker
Shinkai

The direction is in line with expectations for IIoT sell-through,

speaker
OPEX

in the industry and also mass market was weaker than expected for IoT, pitching up the WOI. Enhancing Q4, we plan to reduce inventory in these segments. Enhanced sell-in will be controlled for that purpose. In automotive, control sell-in rather than sell-through will be done to promote efforts to clear out inventory among Japanese customers. We will work to compress channel inventory. And as for IIoT, sell-in, more or less similar to sell-through level is expected, and hence channel inventory will basically be flat. And especially supplementary marks in auto, 2023 by year end, we have concluded market inventory adjustment. However, during the interim for the 40-nano MCU, the supply was temporarily tight. And hence, in the first half of 2024, the 40-nanometer MCU inventory buildup have continued. And especially in Japan and the EU, due to the expectations of the auto market weakening, inventory buildup occurred, but now due to a surplus, we are now at a juncture in which we'll need to control inventory and therefore there will be a decline in inventory. Meanwhile, for IIoT in Q3, WI is expected to increase as we have indicated, but mainly around MCU, WI is high. But in terms of the actual terms, it is easing, declining. And therefore, in terms of the short-term lead time order, due to the size of the market, in order to support the short-term LT order, we will conduct a control so that we will not have a surplus inventory.

speaker
Shinkai

Next slide.

speaker
OPEX

This is a reference to utilization rate. And to the left, we have the Q3, somewhat weaker than forecast and declined to mid 40 range and for q4 further production adjustment is expected to lower the utilization rate on average around 30 percent decline of about 15 percent And to the right, we have the CapEx situation. Apart from production, we have decided on CapEx Q3, focus on IP and ETA procurement.

speaker
Shinkai

And Q4, we will continue with R&D investment.

speaker
OPEX

And next page.

speaker
Shinkai

And this is the revenue.

speaker
OPEX

Per Q4 and also full year 2024 forecast, please look at the dark blue column. The midpoint forecast is 278.5 billion, and in terms of GM, gross margin 52.5%, operating margin 22.5%, forex assumption 145 yen to the dollar, and 160 yen to the euro. In terms of revenue, Q1Q, 19.3%, decline, excluding Forex. And if you look at the line below, 14.9% decline is expected. And as for the breakdown, we would like to supplement details in the subsequent slide. And at this chart, we are looking at the expectations that bridge Q3 and Q4. And looking at it from the left to right, And let's look at the higher yen, 5% point of an impact is to be observed in dollar, 145 yen. And we expect the September rate to continue. And as for the channel inventory reduction, that will be worth 5% or so. And the channel inventory decline is expected And we will apply the control on the auto to compensate for this. And then we have the sell-through at the bottom. That's about 10% points. And for automotive and also IoT, generally split half and half. As for auto, for Japan and the EU, we are seeing a weakening of demand. And for IoT, due to seasonality of mobile and also industry and also mass market, decline is expected.

speaker
Shinkai

And thereafter, we're looking at the supply, and we are looking at a 2% point of impact for supply, parts and supply.

speaker
OPEX

This is attributed to quality issues by which temporarily supply for particular components have been stalled and therefore translating to delay in shipments of particular products. And the impact will be 2% in Q4 as expected. However, we will be able to recover the delay by Q4. And there's an ultimate consolidation impact with about 2%. And going back to the earlier page, and we are looking at the GM 52.5%, Q1Q, that's 3.4% decline. This is attributed to lower utilization rate and weakened production recovery. As for the input utilization rate, we are seeing Q1Q 15% point decline, and also for work in progress, We have had to partially suspend operations to reduce inventories and also in the front end and also back end process, adjustment have had to be made and therefore 15 percentage point in the utilization rate decline for the input, as I've indicated. But more than that, we can expect to see a larger drop in production recovery and also year end maintenance fees allowance also expected to rise. And with the LTM consolidation impact, this will be partially offset. In Q1Q, 3.4% decline is expected. And as for operating margin, 22.5% in Q1Q, 6% decline is expected.

speaker
Shinkai

And generally, in OPEX, trends upwards Q1Q due to seasonally driven year-end adjustment

speaker
OPEX

And starting from October, the global pay raise impact will also be a contributing factor and also Altium consolidation and therefore office baseline terms will increase, but due to one-time factors, it will be offset and therefore on a net basis, it will decline. As for one-time factor, we can cite the bonus allowance, which will have to be reverted in Q3, and that is as expected, and also cost synergy with the acquisition will also have to offset. this number and also an offset basis, net basis will decline. However, in the revenue, it will not compensate for the decline in revenue and therefore the operating margin will be negative. And then now moving on to the appendix and going on to page 15.

speaker
Shinkai

Barings for Altium execution have been executed.

speaker
OPEX

and it has been temporarily reflected in Goodwill and revised post-BPA calculations. In page 17, please. The bridge, that is to say, non-GAAP reconciliation, there are non-recurring items worth 2.4 billion, and one-time acquisition-related expenses have also been incurred, and also Structure reorganization related expenses are also among the main items. Page 19, completion of the Altamax acquisition. Acquisition completed August 1st and consolidation started Q3. And most figures recorded under industrial infrastructure IoT segment. The business per se is making good progress and also PMI and also synergy effect. is to be enjoyed. We are seeing smooth progress. And with this, I would like to conclude my presentation. Thank you very much.

speaker
Structure

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator

Now we would like to move on to the Q&A session. Shibata-san, can you turn your video on? First, I'll explain how to ask a question. If you have a question, please tap on the raise hand button on the screen.

speaker
Structure

We will appoint you in order.

speaker
Operator

Please state your name and affiliation. And then if you are appointed, please unmute before asking your question. Because of time restrictions, we would like to ask you to limit the number of questions to two per person.

speaker
Structure

Now, without further ado, first from Goldman Sachs Securities,

speaker
Operator

Mr. Takayama, over to you. Please unmute and ask your question. Thank you very much for taking my question.

speaker
Takayama

Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Because it's two questions, the first question I have is about Q4. You were talking about a 19% revenue decline. So can you break this down into detail by application? And can you break it down into automotive and IIoT? And also, can you also give us your view on signs of a bottoming out process? Have you already gained visibility looking out into the next quarter to the March quarter? Because you were just talking about taking a deep breath. So I was wondering if you're already looking out into the next quarter, the March quarter. So can you share with us your view as well as the probability of that materializing? Thank you for your question. The details of Q4 numbers will be given out by Mr. Shinkai, but for myself, I'd like to say we're talking about the next first quarter. It's too early to say, so I will refrain from doing so. But the reason why I said now is the time to take a deep breath is because up until now, over the short term, it was about stepping on the brakes where necessary, but we didn't want to miss opportunities either. That is how we've been managing the company. But we didn't want to miss the upturn. But now we want to change the balance of taking on the opportunities and stepping on the brakes. So stepping on the brakes is going to be stronger of a balance compared to capturing upturn opportunities. So it's two sides of a coin. But for Q1, right now, our expectations are cautious. The major reason being due to Japanese industrial and automotive customers mainly. Actually, we're not sure yet, but in anticipation of the fiscal year of March and results, customers may accelerate their efforts to reduce inventory. So just to say this once again, Customers have not communicated that to us. However, right now, we want to be increasingly cautious about the outlook, and that is why we have started to account for a slowdown scenario as well. And of course, there are some applications and regions that will grow, but mainly around Japan from Q4 going into Q1, we expect that there might be pressure of a slowdown So we're not really expecting a strong recovery from the first quarter next fiscal year. At least at this point, that's how we feel. So from the fourth quarter's point of view, it's kind of be a trend where we're going to be trending at the bottom.

speaker
Shibata

So in the next earnings call, we hope that the expectation was too cautious.

speaker
Operator

and conservative. But we don't want to repeat a process where we're revising down our expectations again. So that's why we changed our outlook. So Shinkai-san, can you go through the breakdown? If you can project page 11 on the screen, please.

speaker
Shinkai

So looking at the waterfall chart, the second one,

speaker
Operator

where it says inventory reduction. This is mainly attributed to automotive. That's our assumption. And for sell through decline, which is about 10 points worth of an impact, automotive and IIoT are expected to contribute by half each. And for automotive, it's not really which product, but it's more like region, which is Japan and Europe. That is going to weigh and be weak, and also inventory adjustments by customers, we believe, will contribute by a certain degree. And for IIoT, there's two things to say here. First is mobile. Seasonal factors are expected to lead to this decline, and also industrial and mass market related Q1Q decline is anticipated. And for parts supply stagnation, it's predominantly SOC, substrate for automotive. That's it for me.

speaker
Takayama

Thank you. Well, Shibata-san, going back to your comment, and

speaker
Operator

interpreting it from my perspective. So for the March quarter, you do want a pickup.

speaker
Takayama

And you did feel that you don't have to cut production that much or inventories that much.

speaker
Operator

But by being cautious, because you regretted what has been done in the first half of the year, Are your operations based off the assumption that it's going to be really conservative? That's the way I interpreted your comment. Yes, exactly. However, we don't want to be too extreme. So if we see signs of a change, we would like to swiftly change the weight of our focus but right now as you rightly said we feel that we need to be very cautious and conservative in managing the company right now so that leads to my second question when it comes to the pickup and profitability then is it going to be moderate due to the way you're operating the company or 55% gross profit margin rose margins or 30% OPM is probably on your mind. Have you changed your approach or would you like to try to strive for a quick recovery? And also from a stock price point of view, I think there's higher expectations towards your company compared to the pickup in the cycle. So you have been increasing borrowing, so share buybacks That might not be easy to do, but do you have anything on your minds as to shareholder return or share buybacks? Right. Thank you for the question. Margins or gross margins. How should I put it? Of course, we're not in a great position. However, having said that, I think it is being well controlled. The challenge is OPM, actually. For operating margins, when you think about it, I think we were in a rush to grow the company. So this is a regret that has been ongoing. The baseline OPEX has been increasing. But I think we need to become a little bit leaner than where we are right now. So we will be implementing a variety of measures. However, over the short term, it's not about addressing quarterly operating expenses, but we need to take a deep breath and look out over the medium to long term to well control our costs. That's what we would like to do. So in Q1 next fiscal year or Q2 next fiscal year, I'm not sure what's going to happen, but when you look out to the next fiscal year, you'll probably be able to know what we had on our minds. So we need to take that kind of bold approach. For shareholder returns, of course, we would like to consider the best of what we can do. But when we acquired Altium, And after LTM, we have talked from time to time about our digitalization vision. In order to realize this vision, LTM is not going to fill all the pieces we need. And that was our initial way of thinking. So it's not going to be multi-billion, but we still have some areas where we would like to acquire and reinforce. So the timing when we can take that action needs to be on our minds. And of course, we don't need other funds at some point in time. We could allocate that to shareholder return. But if we see an opportunity, we may prioritize that opportunity. But we resume dividends. We would like to ensure that dividends are payout consistently going forward as well. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
OPEX

Thank you very much.

speaker
Structure

From BofA Securities, Hirakawa-sama, please.

speaker
OPEX

Please unmute yourself and present your question. Thank you very much. BofA Securities, Hirakawa speaking. There are two questions, the first of which is in Q4, your revenue plan. And as a backdrop, I believe I have been able to understand your train of thought. Sell-through decline, Q1Q, 10% decline is expected. However, the performance of your peers have not really been disclosed as of yet, but it appears as if your outlook is rather weak. And sell-through 10% decline...

speaker
Structure

What would you say about the factors and your train of thought?

speaker
OPEX

As you have pointed out, if you look at this target itself, we understand that this does appear to be very constrained. Because of the forex, I don't know IOT put together, accounts for about 10% in terms of contributing factor. But in terms of the end demand, and we look at the breakdown, we find that on the customer side, there are inventory adjustments, which account for quite a sizable portion of the total.

speaker
Shibata

And hence,

speaker
OPEX

When the final product is. Is into the market and if that is a contributing factor for the decline in demand, that is not the case. So what is the factor behind the 10% decline for auto as Shinkai-san has earlier mentioned? And you might recall. At the beginning of the year, I talked about RH A50 MCU. and we will tend to demand. But given the situation on the customer side and also the sales channel side and also on our side as well, there have been movements to step up on inventory built up. And that has prolonged. And this level of inventory is a truly appropriate compared to other products. There has been a delay in the timing. we should have taken action to reduce inventory. However, we have interstate delay and therefore into Q4 the impact will hit our performance and therefore it may appear very sizable. I would like to repeat that year-on-year basis that is not so dramatic. In our automotive business alone, it is not as if our revenue has been dramatically hit, even if we look at this very objectively. So the performance this year was not that bad. On the other hand, on IIoT side, in terms of substance, we do recognize a decline. And also, as Shinkai-san has earlier mentioned, about Q3, 30 percentage points, as a figure has been mentioned. And this describes the sizeable decline that we are witnessing versus our competitor. If this number is very weak, how will this, where would the impact lie? Of course, it really depends on who we compare this to. But if we compare, if we look at the exposure to our local customers in China versus our competitors is a rather small. And on top of that, this is also something that I've mentioned at the beginning of the year. It really depends on who we compare ourselves to. In generative AI, our solution exposure has grown very strongly. But compared to the revenue overall, it is not a large proportion. And hence, when it comes to the downside in other areas, we have not been able to really offset this number. But what is peculiar to our business is the way we capture the sockets. And we find that the mobile is rather weak. And as we move into the next year, the new sockets will increase. But in terms of substance, we have to, of course, refer to the exposure in China and also related smaller customers, smaller in size, but also generating growth. And this is an area in which we have not been able to really build upon compared to our peers. And therefore, there have been swings in the business cycle that has also had an impact on our IIoT business. Thank you very much. The second is about power semiconductor devices. And I would have to divide this into three components. And what about the line and also the PL and 2025 SIC is going to begin? So those are the two questions. And then for related to SIC, for Wolfspeed, your deposit of $2 billion, do we need to be attended to the risk of impairment losses? Thank you very much. The points you have raised, Well, they're very good questions. As to the Kofu utilization, more than expected, we are expecting delay. The operation has already begun at Kofu. However, when it comes to commercial production, we need to take a more cautious approach.

speaker
Shibata

In 2025, what is our plan? We still have some time before 2025 comes around.

speaker
OPEX

I will not be able to make a decisive comment. However, we will take a cautious approach so that in order to delay the process to the extent possible. On a similar note, for SIC, To quite some extent, the market situation, of course, we need to look at demand and supply, and also the competitor situation, as well as the business in China. We find that there have been substantial changes that is different from our company, and the difficulty with SIC is to be sure that we do not rush forward. We understand undoubtedly that this is going to be a growth market, and of course, we need to take a very long-term perspective. And rather than focusing on the beginning of the business, we have to place an emphasis on R&D. And that is how we'll be shifting our focus. And therefore, for Wolfspeed, initially as expected, are we going to procure weavers? That will not really be the case. And therefore, there has been a change in plan. Of course, there are some sensitive matters, and therefore I will not be able to at this point in time disclose everything. Wolfspeed chips under the Chips Act funding acquisition has been made, and that will enhance the possibility of recovery of our deposits into Wolfspeed. And however you look at it, this is going to translate to a positive, and therefore In terms of cash interest payment to be received, we have agreed on a delay. But not only that, at the same time, of course, I will not be able to quote on details. However, as Renaissance, we are to well-speed their obligations and liabilities to address. And there have been changes. So that there will be a win-win engagement for both sides. So the question arises as to whether there will be a $2 billion scope of demand. The situation has changed dramatically. However, as to expectations of recovery of the $2 billion deposit because of the CHIPS Act, in terms of financials, The process are brighter and the 8-inch operations that we'll see when it is up and running, the concerns can be eased. And therefore, compared to a while ago, we believe that we can take a more optimistic view. Thank you. Thank you very much. And there's a follow-up question in terms of changes to the liability terms. And of course, when the time comes, are you going to disclose the information to us? Yes. We may not be able to, of course, divulge all the specifics, but however, as the implications, we will be able to share information with you. Thank you very much.

speaker
Structure

Thank you very much. The next person is from Citigroup, Mr. Fujiwara.

speaker
Operator

Please unmute and go ahead with your question.

speaker
Shibata

This is Fujiwara from Citigroup.

speaker
Operator

I also have two questions. The first one is about the sell-through demand decline for Q4.

speaker
Shinkai

And it's about three months from your previous earnings.

speaker
Operator

And during the three months from when Did the probability of demand decline materialize and also in the past three months up until right now, talking with your customers for the demand decline, do you think this is going to continue? Is it continuing or has it settled down as you approached this earnings call? That's my first question. Thank you. So the demand decline for Q4, from when did we sense it? I would say it is due to the conditions of the third quarter. What I mean by that is I have mentioned this from before, but the demand and supply situation has changed quite a lot, and short lead time orders have been increasing, as Mr. Shinkai has mentioned. before the quarter started, there were some orders that were not a backlog. So the orders came in when the quarter started. So that was what we were not anticipating at the beginning of the quarter. And when you compare with the trends that we've been seeing so far, after entering Q3, short lead time orders We did forecast in our planning how much of those types of short time orders will come in. However, for July, well, August, maybe it was summer vacation, but maybe it's a little bit weaker than we thought.

speaker
Shibata

And then entering September, there's only four weeks left. However, last minute orders didn't really come in is what I've been hearing.

speaker
Operator

So even for short-term orders, it seems that it became weaker. So that's the reason why. So I would say from around the summer holiday season, we were wondering if that's the case. And we started to feel that things have changed ever since we entered September and ever since I've started to get everyone's feedback. And also, we're Fourth quarter, Shinkai-san, would you like to speak about it?

speaker
Shinkai

Excuse me.

speaker
Operator

What am I supposed to talk about the fourth quarter? Over the past three months, it's been about a month ever since the fourth quarter started. And you just talked about short lead time orders, but Is the demand outlook deteriorating or has it settled down? Or short lead time orders, in balance with that, when you look at order booking trends, further deterioration is not a trend we're seeing. It's not a trend we're seeing.

speaker
Shinkai

As usual, we are low. We are trending at low levels.

speaker
Operator

And that's how we are anticipating October. And to add a comment here, short lead time type orders and our forecast, we have reduced it to close to zero now. So if anything were to happen or if anything were to come in going forward, that will be an upside for us. So that's a big change we have made this time around. And speaking with customers, I would say for automotive, first of all, compared to three months ago, I do feel that it has become quite weak, weaker for other areas. Compared to three months ago, I don't really feel that there has been a big change.

speaker
Shibata

Whichever customer you talk to,

speaker
Operator

They talk about a anticipated recovery in the first or second quarter next fiscal year, although their comments don't have a reason why. So my gut feeling is that we haven't been seeing an improvement, nor have we been seeing a deterioration. All right, thank you. My second question is about, well, earlier you talked about free cash flow. and third quarter numbers were weak. And with your performance weakening, I would anticipate that free cash flow is also going to decline. You acquired Altium, and you increased your borrowing substantially. And for the repayment schedule, will it be impacted in any kind of way, or will this also impact your dividend payout? So Mr. Shinkai will address that question. So for Q4 free cash flow, it's likely to be about the same level as the second quarter. So debt repayment or dividend impact is not expected. That's all from me.

speaker
Shibata

That's all from me. Thank you.

speaker
Structure

Thank you very much. Next, we have Mr. Kojima from Nikkei BP.

speaker
OPEX

Mr. Kojima, please unmute yourself and present your question. Thank you.

speaker
Kojima

This is Kojima from Nikkei BP.

speaker
OPEX

There are two questions.

speaker
Kojima

The first of which is related to the earlier

speaker
OPEX

earning call and you have mentioned action to be taken and recently taken up by the media.

speaker
Kojima

How will the trends translate to your business?

speaker
OPEX

I'm just going to throw the questions at the outset. Earlier, you disclosed that an action to be taken and there are two things that come to mind. This is in reference to ultimate acquisition where the platform will be developed. I believe that is what you have said. Will that be impacted? And then the other question is in reference to auto-mounted products, the next generation product with functionality have been enhanced. You will work on your R&D efforts you have mentioned. And with the tightening, what will be the impact? Will there be an impact? So these are questions in reference to the action forward. And the second set of questions is in reference to the market trend. And how would that play out in your business? In terms of trends that come my mind there too, for DDR5 transition, to some extent have progressed.

speaker
Kojima

So what is the impact there?

speaker
OPEX

Is it a positive or a negative impact?

speaker
Kojima

And the second, is an HV?

speaker
OPEX

HV? H is on the rise, EV is kind of trending downwards. The HEV, excuse me, is on the rise, whereas EV is kind of stagnant. And I would like to inquire as to the impact on these.

speaker
Shibata

And SOC Generation 5?

speaker
OPEX

And so digitalization platform, I would say that there is absolutely no impact and we're progressing as initially intended. And that is how we will proceed.

speaker
Shibata

I would hesitate given the situation.

speaker
OPEX

to speak about activities I had. I would like to be cautious, but if things well, for Alcon Gen5, in November or December, we will be able to disclose information about progress made. Of course, if all goes well. So I would like to ask you to stay tuned. For Altium digitalization platform, Two weeks ago, there was an exhibit called Electronica, where just a part of our new projects will be exhibited. So that's not two weeks ago, but that's two weeks ahead. I would like for you to also come to visit our exhibit. This is something that I'm very proud of. So I would encourage you. Take a look.

speaker
Shibata

For DDR5, however you look at it, for Renesas, it is a positive. There is no negative factor there. For DDR5 this year,

speaker
OPEX

We mentioned that it is really going to pick up, but beyond expectations, it is slower than earlier anticipated. I may have mentioned that memory interface device, the power management from other companies, when combined, presented a problem in there. So our power management, I see to be qualified. This has consumed time, and this has been the major factor. When we combine, of course, devices from various companies, of course, this is very challenging. I'm sure that that has been well understood by customers. And therefore, when going to the next version, our memory interface, and power management IC will be combined. And however you look at it, this will be, of course, a tailwind for us. It's too early to say, but in terms of direction forward, I will absolutely say for certain that this is not going to be a negative factor. So please put your concerns to rest. For EV and HEV, EV is going to slow down, is displaying a slowdown. For business, it's not necessarily a negative factor.

speaker
Shibata

I'm sure the analysts are concerned about for HEV.

speaker
OPEX

Is it going to be a tailwind? And if so, is it going to be a tailwind for Renaissance? I'm sure that is a point in question. I would say yes, but not to such a sizable extent. And therefore, when we look at the trend, more than expected, the EV start has taken time. But that's not necessarily a negative.

speaker
Shibata

Having said that, Was it Fujiwara-san? Presented a question about power devices and how that is rolling out.

speaker
OPEX

And of course, for the company, it is also a negative. And therefore, we will begin on IGBT come next year and SIC as well. And this has been a very ambitious plan that we have put together. The situation has changed, and therefore, we will take a cautious approach into next year. And therefore, in terms of the numbers per se, it would be fair to say that it is a negative. Thank you very much. That will serve as reference. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

We have received some other questions, but as we are drawing to the close, we would like to end the Q&A session. So finally, in closing, Mr. Shibata will speak.

speaker
Shibata

So for two quarters in a row, the downward revision of the guide has been widening

speaker
Operator

So I don't think it's appropriate for me to say a lot about this, but we will be changing perspective from here on and ensure that we show results. So for the fourth quarter and the first quarter next year, we will be more cautious in our management, and we hope that in Q2 next year or in the second half next year, we will be ready for Q2 or the second half next year from a cost perspective and also continue on with our R&D. So we don't want to be reactive on a quarterly basis, but we would like to have a long-term perspective. So we would like to ask you for your ongoing support. Thank you very much for joining today.

Disclaimer

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