Rexel Sa Ord

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our first quarter 2025 sales presentation. I appreciate you making the time to be with us. And as always, I'm joined by Laurent Delaba, our group CFO, who will walk you through the detailed sales figure in just a few minutes. But first, I'd like to take a look at the key highlights of the quarter and share how our transformation continues to support our growth and performance, even in a complex and evolving environment. Returning to slide 3, I'm pleased to say that Rexel has returned to positive growth after five consecutive quarters of same-day sales decline. In Q1 2025, we delivered a solid plus 1.4% same-day sales growth, driven by sustained strength in North America and encouraging improvements across Europe. Digital continues to be a key growth lever. In this quarter, digital sales reached 33% of total revenue, an increase of over 240 basis points year-over-year. This reflects the growing adoption of our digital tools across all geographies and customer types. On pricing, we saw an 80 basis point contribution to growth with improving conditions in all regions. In particular, solar pricing recovered sequentially versus the end of last year. though conduit pricing in North America remains deflationary. Altogether, this performance highlights the resilience of our model and the engagement of our teams as we continue to execute our strategy. Let me briefly touch on tariffs. While the impact on our Q1 numbers was limited, we began to see early supplier price increases linked to new tariffs. We will come back to that at the end of the presentation. Turning now to slide four, let me take a moment to discuss our capital allocation strategy. In line with the roadmap we shared at our 2024 Capital Market Day, we continue to actively manage our portfolio in Q1 through both acquisition and divestment. On April 1st, we acquired Schling Electrical Supply, a well-regarded player in the U.S. Northeast with approximately $70 million in annual sales, six locations, and a workforce of around 100 people. Later in the month, we also signed an agreement to divest our operations in Finland, a well-run business but operating subscale and at lower profitability than our European average. This move is aligned with our strategy to focus on markets where we can lead with scale and operational leverage. And we also continue to return capital to shareholders through our share buyback program. And all these actions reflect our disciplined approach to capital deployment while keeping an eye on shareholder return. With that, let me now hand over to Laurent Delaba, who will take you through the detailed number for the first quarters.

Thank you, Guillaume, and good morning to all. Let's start on slide six, the different building blocks of our Q125 sales performance. Our sales of 4.8 billion euros were up 2.5% on a reported basis, a positive performance achieved thanks to our acquisition strategy, which contributed for plus 1.9% net of disposals, and the same day sales grew up plus 1.4%. The scope impact included the positive contribution of Itesa in France, Tally and Electrical Supply Inc. in the U.S., as well as the disposal of New Zealand. For full year 2025, we anticipate the scope effect to be close to zero, based on an already completed acquisition and disposal on both New Zealand and Finland. The currency effects stood at plus 1% in Q1 2025, but the euro significantly strengthened versus the US dollar at the end of the quarter, and assuming unchanged spot rates until year end, we now anticipate the currency impact of minus 1.4% for the full year 25. On slide seven, you see the selling price impact and the breakdown of our sales evolution by geography. First on pricing, selling prices contributed for 0.8% to the sales growth in the quarter. Non-cable selling prices, were flat, with positive price increases in the majority of our product families, offset by the deflation, mainly in piping in North America and in solar to a lesser extent. Cable pricing contributed for plus 0.9% in the quarter, benefiting from a more favorable copper price versus last year. And by geography, we saw North America maintaining its high level of growth at plus 3.8%, Europe remaining negative but accelerating sequentially versus Q4, and APAC was positive at plus 1.4%. I will detail Europe and North America in the next slide. And more specifically for Asia Pacific, accounting for 5% of group revenues, China returned to positive territory, up 7.5%, boosted by customer gains, particularly in distribution and chemical markets. The initial automation activity that was deflationary in 24 returned to positive territory. In Australia, sales declined by 0.7%, similar to Q4 24, but the quarter was impacted by the cyclone called Alfred in March and restated from that weather impact, sales would have been flat. The overall business was supported by industrial markets, particularly mining and manufacturing. Slide 8 focused on our performance in Europe. Our Q1-25 7-day sales were still negative down 0.7%, but with a significant sequential improvement compared to the minus 3.8 in Q4-24. Overall core ED and business accelerators both contributed positively to the sequential improvement compared to Q4-24. And more specifically, let me highlight the key evolutions of the quarter. In France, we continued to significantly outperform the market. Our growth was mainly driven by non-residential and HVAC markets. The dark regions were back to break-even, significantly improving compared to the minus 4 in Q4-24 in an uncertain environment in Germany. Austria did very well in the quarter, boosted by the solar business. Benelux was down minus 1.7%. mainly due to industrial and solar segments, while we saw first signs of recovery in non-residential. In addition, the Dutch regulation was less favorable for heat pumps and solar activities. Lastly, the UK and Ireland were down minus 5.9%, with good momentum in Ireland, and the UK remained impacted by turnaround measures, including 24 branch closures completed end of 24, and the increased selectivity on projects. On slide 9, we turn to our performance in North America, where same-day sales were up 3.8%, confirming the good trend recorded in Q4 24. While project activity continued to be the main growth driver of the quarter, it was interesting to see the improvement in the proximity business. All three markets were positive in the quarter. In the business accelerator families, the strong demand in datacom was offset by the initial automation that was negative in the quarter, but sequentially improving compared to Q4-24. And let's summarize the key highlights for our two countries. In the US, same day sales rose to that plus 4%, boosted by non-residential and industrial markets, and more specifically, data centers and manufacturing. Canada saw same-day sales growth of 2.9%, thanks to non-residential markets, and notably distribution and datacom. Let me add that, of course, the tariff introduced mid-March, notably on steel and aluminum, had a limited impact on the quarter. And we are closely monitoring the various effects, and notably the impact on selling prices. It's still too early to share an aggregate number, but we currently see price increases from our supplier in the US and on most product categories ranging from 4 to 20%. On slide 10, as in previous quarter, we continue to enjoy a strong level of backlogs. One more time, high backlogs result from the combination of a strong backlog execution driving the growth in our project business. but also a robust order intake during the quarter, as illustrated by the backlog in the US at the end of March, which took 6% higher than end of December 24. Before leaving the floor to Guillaume, let me finish with a slide that we usually use during our half of full year results. But as we have received many questions related to the refinancing needs in the current uncertain credit environment, and even though credit market seems to have reopened recently for our credit rating names, we wanted to remind you the flexibility that we have and the absence of short-term refinancing needs. First, our bonds have a 28 and 20-30 maturity, and second, Part of our accounts receivable securitization financing has a 25 maturity, and we are talking about an asset-backed financing covered by our receivable. We have renewed similar lines during the GFC in 2009 and during COVID, and we will finalize the agreement to extend the line by three years in the coming months. With that, let me hand back to Guillaume to discuss our outlook. Thank you, Laurent.

So as you saw in the figures, we had a very solid first quarter. Now, one of the big questions, obviously, is discussed on slide 13, which outlines the possible implications of the evolving U.S. tariff environment for Excel. So as we are all aware, new tariffs have been introduced since mid-March with the potential for more to follow. It's clearly too early to tell you precisely what the impact of this unexpected development is going to be for us, but we can say a few things on a qualitative basis. First of all, tariffs are not a major direct topic, as what we sell in North America is almost entirely manufactured within North America. And beyond that, tariffs can be both a tailwind and a headwind, which we try to clarify on this slide. On the sales front, tariffs could obviously lead to incremental price increases, which may support top-line growth in certain categories. Reshoring trends and domestic investment initiatives may also strengthen demand in segments like data centers, infrastructure, and industrial projects. However, we are also mindful of broader macroeconomic risks such as potential slowdowns in U.S. trade partners and reduced investment appetite that could weigh on demand and confidence level. There are also risks and upsides in terms of margin. If we are able to pass through cost inflation, especially on imported goods, We could see a positive one-off impact on margins. This, of course, depends on market conditions and our ability to adjust pricing effectively. At the same time, there is a risk of margin pressure if pass-through proves difficult or if demand becomes more volatile in response to higher prices. In terms of operating costs, there could be some relief through better fixed cost absorption, obviously, if we are able to maintain volumes at higher prices. And overall, while the situation remains fluid, Rexel's diversified portfolio and strong execution capabilities position us well to manage this complexity. We are monitoring development closely and will remain agile in our response to both risks and opportunities as they emerge. Now, one of the tools we will rely upon on the next slide, slide 14, to make the most of this fast-evolving situation is our new strategic plan, Accelerate 28. This new plan is designed to support the delivery of Rexel's mid-term ambitions, succeeding and complementing our previous plan, Power Up 25. Accelerate 2028 builds on the foundations laid over the past several years and introduces a clear structure for how we will scale value creation over the coming cycle. The plan is built around two key pillars, amplifying our clients' impact and striving for operational excellence. On the customer side, we are evolving beyond product distribution to deliver a more comprehensive value-added service experience. It includes tailored solutions, advanced logistics, data-driven insights, and sustainable energy services. We are also scaling up innovative monetizable services with an increasing focus on digital platforms, automation, and AI tools to deliver smarter and more efficient outcomes for our clients. And operationally, on the other side, We are deepening our investments in technology-driven supply chain enhancements and strengthening our omnichannel capabilities, allowing customers to engage with us seamlessly across digital, in-person, and hybrid channels. We are also putting significant emphasis on data and AI deployment, which will help improve forecasting, optimize pricing, and streamline internal processes. Together, these initiatives form a disciplined, agile framework for growth. And even in a low visibility environment, Accelerate 2028 will provide us with the tools to enhance resilience, sharpen execution, and deliver against our mid-term financial targets. And so finally on slide 15, let me conclude with our outlook and a few closing remarks. In a context that remains uncertain, marked by a soft macroeconomic backdrop inflation and the recent changes in US tariff policy, we are confirming our 2025 full-year guidance As you saw in the figures, we had a solid first quarter. We also have talked at length that for us, the new macroeconomic situation is both a tailwind and a headwind, so there is no particular reason to scale down or up our ambition. We continue to expect stable to slightly positive same-day sales growth with stronger growth in North America than in Europe, an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 6%. and free cash flow conversion of approximately 65%, excluding the €124 million fine that we paid in April related to the French Competition Authority ruling. Now, what is clear is that the world has become more uncertain, and we will continue to monitor developments carefully. To conclude, Q1 marks a clear improvement over the end of 2024, with growth returning, pricing stabilizing, digital acceleration continuing, and backlog solids. Our teams remain fully mobilized behind Accelerate 28, our strategic plan, and we are executing our strategy with discipline and clarity. Rexel is well positioned to meet its short-term and mid-term objectives and continue creating value regardless of the near-term environment. And with that, Laurent and I are happy to take your questions. Thank you.

Thank you. This is the conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one under touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Martin Wilkie, Citi. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. It's Martin from Citi. The first question I had was just on tariffs. Could you remind us what portion of your products are coming from overseas in the U.S.? And just to clarify that comment on 4% to 20% pricing, presumably that's just on categories that are bought in from other countries and perhaps would expect domestically sold to be 0%.

Yeah, yeah, Martin. Basically, there is a very minimal amount which is imported from outside North America. So most of the products that we sell in the U.S. are either manufactured in the U.S. or in Canada or in Mexico. And when they are manufactured in Canada and in Mexico, they are under the USMCA. So there is no particular tariffs between those countries. Now, that being said... Those products include steel, aluminum, and they include also components which are sometimes imported from China. So because of that, our suppliers are seeing increase in their costs, which they obviously are hoping and very decisively pushing to the market. So that's a little bit the situation, but to answer your question very clearly, there is a very minimal amount which is directly imported from outside of North America.

No, thank you. That's very clear. And if I can ask on the timing of this, we've heard some companies mention that they've taken enough inventory to last through the summer, for example, and therefore the price increases would only really kick in in the second half. I mean, I realize it's very early days, but when you talk about these price increase effects, is this something that would happen much later in the year? Is this something that could happen already in April? How should we think about the timing of that?

So the price increases that we have seen are applicable between end of April and June basically from manufacturers. So they are not for after the summer, they are relatively quick and our policy is to obviously pass through those price increases as soon as possible to the rest of the supply chain. So I think you're going to see price appreciation a little bit earlier than the summer. As far as inventory situation, we have a normal level of inventory, no more, no less, which means that we are not particularly betting on price increases. That's not our business model, first of all. And then also there is a little bit of an uncertainty around what's going to be the end picture of all of that. So we felt it was cautious to keep exactly our inventory level where it is, which is the right level to ensure service to our customers. But so as the two messages are, it's going to come a little bit earlier than after the all inventory is exhausted. And the path through is going to be very quick. Great. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Daniela Costa, Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I have two questions. The first one is regarding sort of what have you seen since the beginning of April? I remember during the pandemic, you had really helpful data about like weekly trends, just wondering if you have any comments from that. And then I'll ask the second one.

Okay, so April is a good month. It's in line with the end of the first quarter, which was showing decent figures, especially in North America. We see good volumes in North America, which, as far as we can see, are not triggered by pre-buys or anything like that, but are real activity because it's mostly linked to projects execution. So that's what I can give you as a global trend. So good figures in April with solid growth in North America.

Thank you. And my second question was to clarify just on your comments before and on the guidance. You've kept the guidance, but in the beginning of the year you had included very little pricing on it and you hadn't incorporated tariffs. Now we have had the tariffs and we are seeing some suppliers doing the 4% to 20% price increases. So does that underlying imply that you're assuming lower volumes for the rest of the year or how should we think about it or has it not incorporated tariffs?

Okay, so that's a smart question. The confirmation of the guidance is not a re-forecast of the guidance, let me be clear on that, because we still live in a quite uncertain environment. I gave you the picture of what the price increases are today, but you know very well that even the tariffs themselves are subject to a high level of uncertainty over what's going to happen in 45 days, in 90 days, etc. On the other side, as we try to put in the sensitivity analysis, there are other moving parts, which means that we know what the mechanical effect of tariffs could be in terms of pricing, in terms of top line evolution, in terms of margin evolution. But what about the subsequent volume effect, which many analysts have pointed out as a potential downside if something happens to the worldwide economy or to the U.S. economy? And so at the end of the day, qualitatively, we think that there is going to be a little bit more upside on the pricing side and probably a little bit more downside on the volume side. Now, we are not sure about that. And so the best we can do is confirm our guidance at this stage when we see upsides and downsides, but we don't have figures in mind on that. It's more a risk analysis than a re-forecast, Daniela.

Understood. Thank you.

The next question is from Alexander Virgo, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. I wondered if you could just talk a little bit more on this, the 4 to 20. That's obviously to do with the pricing on raw materials. And I wondered if we look at what if you could talk a little bit to what suppliers are doing in terms of the current tariffs and the indications you've had from that. And then secondly, as a follow up. You talked about France being up slightly, or you reported France being up slightly. I wondered if you could talk about the underlying market, maybe X, the market share gains, especially given one of your suppliers last night missed on European growth, citing weakness in residential markets. And you've obviously called out strength in non-resi and HVAC, and I'd appreciate if you could talk a little bit about the color of what you're seeing in Europe. Thank you.

Thank you. Can you just repeat the first part of the question, which was about tariffs from suppliers, but just for me to be sure that I understand well what your question is?

Yeah, I guess my interpretation of what you said on the 4 to 20 is that that's to do with the steel and aluminium price tariffs that were introduced in mid-March. So I'm just wondering if you could talk about what your suppliers are saying with respect to the current tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs or the state of play as it is today.

Oh, okay, okay, okay. So I think our suppliers are moving in terms of pricing and adapting their position to the fast-evolving environment, which means that at this stage, we are seeing the first batch of price increases, which probably includes real price increases in steel and steel and aluminum and probably Chinese components. And don't include at this stage reciprocal tariffs because nothing is completely certain on this one. If this was confirmed in the future, they would probably do other price increases, but the question would be better asked to the suppliers. I think they are adapting the price policy to the situation as it evolves. Now, maybe one additional point. which is to say that at this stage, steel and aluminum and components coming from China are probably the big hitters for them. I don't know if reciprocal tariffs are going to be as big as an impact for them, but you would have to look at that on a supplier-by-supplier basis, on a category-by-category basis. Now, talking about France, I would say you're right. In France, we have good figures in the first quarter like we had last year. The real market is probably mid-single-digit negative. And the fact is that for several reasons, we are gaining market share since a few quarters in France. So we are very happy with that, obviously. But the market itself is not very bright. It's quite soft, including on the residential side. And at this stage, it's a little bit early to tell anything else about the recovery of the residential market. As you remember, when we did the guidance at the beginning of the year, We talked about the fact that potentially in the second part of the year, because of the lowering of the interest rates by the European Central Bank, we could see an impact on some market linked to residential, especially renovation, in European countries. We are not there yet. I cannot point at any green shoots in terms of residential in France, but we are compensating that by self-help, obviously.

That's very helpful. Thanks, Kim.

The next question is from William Mackey, Kepler. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Two, really. The first one on pricing, again, coming back to North America and the USA, just to clarify. Obviously, the 4% to 20% is a range across the product categories you're talking about. But what sort of average or mean do you expect we might see for the second half of the year, I guess, as these kick in? Are we talking sort of more like 5% or 6% on average across your North American business in the second half on pricing?

I'm not sure I want to give figures on that, but I guess if you do the blended average, you would see pricing in the second half mid to high single digits up compared to last year, I think. Frankly, there are still many moving parts in there, but in the current situation, that's probably what you would see because most of our categories are impacted. And so because of that, yeah, I would say mid single digit to high single digit. That's what you should see.

Thank you. And maybe just based on how you see the risks or opportunities evolving in the second half of the year, I mean, when you look across the portfolio, where would you anticipate the greatest impact elasticity of demand related to pricing or the economic uncertainty as it involves either in North America or in Europe, please.

That's a very broad question. I'm not sure I have a good answer to that. I mean, historically, what we have seen is that typically investment in the industry is very much linked to consumer confidence and to industry confidence. And renovation on the other side of the spectrum is very much linked to customer confidence. But that being said, I don't know how it's going to play out this time because as we mentioned on the slide, which tries to summarize that, when you're talking about industry in the US, for example, you may have, and I'm speculating here, you may have an effect linked to the fact that inflation is going to weigh on industry confidence and visibility for the future. But on the other hand, you may have a positive effect of reshoring, which is what the intent of the tariffs is about also. So all in all, being able to tell you, okay, industry is going to suffer from that is a little bit difficult in reality. In each segment, they are positive and negative, and that's what makes the forecast exercise at this stage a little bit difficult. So I'm not sure this non-answer is helping you, but that's what I can give you at this stage. Understood. Cheers.

The next question is from Max Yates, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Thank you. maybe ask a question around the margins. And I guess just zooming in on your comments where you said the setup for this year might be more on price and a bit less on volumes. I mean, in a scenario where your North America price was up mid-single digit and your volumes were down low single digit, that would obviously be quite different to a sort of small price increase and a bit of volume growth. How should we think about the margins evolving in that scenario where it's quite positive price and maybe some negative volume, how would that differ? How would that impact differ on margins?

I said to Laurent that I would try not to answer any questions on margins on this sales call, but nevertheless, you've seen the slides that I commented about the upsides and downsides. What you would see qualitatively is on margin, in a scenario like this one, obviously on the volume side, you would have the typical drop through. And what we say, Laurent, usually in terms of drop-through, is that adding 1% of volume to Rexel brings approximately 5 bits. So you can do the math. That's a typical rule of thumb that we give. Now, on the price side, you have two effects. I mean, you have one effect, which is the difference between the margin squeeze or unsqueeze between the margin inflation and the cost inflation. And so that would be a positive effect if there was inflation. And then you would have the one-off effect, which is linked to the fact when it's possible that we sell inventory both at a lower price, at the new price, when it's possible. And obviously it goes the other direction when the market deflates. And so that is a one-off effect, which is linked to the quantity of inventory that we have, which in the US is... The term is approximately 60 days at Rexel level. And so you would have a one-off effect. So if I summarize, you would have a drop-through effect in your scenario, a negative drop-through effect. You would have a positive effect linked to the fact that gross margin would inflate than the cost base. And then you would probably have some kind of a one-off effect, which is linked to the inventory situation and to the value of the inventory. Now, what you would probably have also, because we have experienced that in the past, is that any price increase requires heavy lifting in terms of passing through. So you may have a little bit of loss there in terms of it's not going to be a perfect pass through because the market is dense, it's competitive. And so because of that, not everything is going to be 100%. So here are the moving parts. drop through, squeeze between cost and margin, one-off effect, and maybe a little bit of margin pressure. So that's how the equation works. Now I'm not going to give figures within the equation.

Okay. And maybe just a quick follow-up on acquisitions. How does the kind of current uncertainty play make you think at all differently about the rate of acquisitions and maybe the kind of leverage, the balance sheet leverage that you're prepared to have in this environment? I mean, should we expect, I think your acquisitions have been running at sort of 3% of sales, adding 3% of sales a year. Would we expect that to slow down in the short term as you maybe take a bit more of a defensive approach?

No, look, I mean, first of all, in terms of balance sheet, we are relatively comfortable. I don't think that we have any concern about either liquidity or cost of financing. So we are good on that. So it's not a balance sheet constraint. Now what's happening also is that sellers are a little bit concerned about selling in the current environment. It's true. So you may see a slowdown of the pipeline, naturally. But that being said, when it comes to our willingness to make acquisitions, we make acquisitions for the long run. And very often we buy companies which for family evolution reasons are family owned and for family evolution reasons, they sell at a certain moment. And it's a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy those companies. So we are not going to shy away from that because of short-term downturn. And so I think it's a little bit our mindset. We continue the course in terms of acquisition. We continue to think, and we have shown that in the past, we continue to think that it's a very value creative way of adding to the organic growth of Rexel. So we'll continue to do it at the same rhythm, but it's going to depend very much on the availability of companies to buy.

Understood. Very helpful. Thank you.

The next question is from Andre Cookman, UBS. Please go ahead.

Great morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Can I just follow up on the current trading color that you very helpfully gave for April? In North America, does that good environment diverge at all between low voltage and industrial automation? And could you give just a bit more color on Europe and Asia as well?

Okay, so industrial automation in the first quarter was overall at Rexel level and also in North America slightly negative compared to last year. It was one of the markets which remained difficult with a mix probably of difficult base effects last year we had a relatively high first quarter, even if it doesn't show in the figures, but it is linked to the fact that 2023, in reality, had been very strong in the first quarter. So overall, the first quarter was a difficult comparison base, plus probably wait and see and hesitation at the OEM level. So I think we are seeing that, but we had a negative quarter in North America, both in the US and Canada, in industrial automation. which is different from the industry and market which for us was positive in North America and in North America in general. So that's the first thing I would like to say. Now, that being said, between Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, despite the fact that in Q1 we have year-over-year negative figures, we saw sequential improvement between Q4 and Q1. So that's one thing. And the second thing which is interesting to know is that when we look at our backlog, and we disclose our backlog in terms of overall backlog in North America, But when we look specifically at the content in industrial automation in the backlog, it has increased slightly between the end of Q4 and the end of Q1. So we are seeing positive evolution, but that being said, we are still in negative territory. So, that's what I can say about what's happening on the industrial automation market in North America. So, improvement sequentially, but still year-over-year negative, linked to mostly the base effects, and maybe also a little bit of wait-and-see situation. Now, when it comes to other geographies, and I'm sure that your question was about industrial automation mostly, so the other geographies for us would be Canada. Canada, I commented a little bit on Canada within North America, and it would be China and India. Laurent, do you want to say a word about China?

Yeah, but China, we had a good Q1, and April is in line with the end of March, so still in good territory. But yeah, there is uncertainty around this tariff, which should impact in the short run the volume. So we don't see it yet, but we expect that to come gradually across Q2.

Great, thank you. And sorry, on that question, I was wondering about April, specifically the current trading and what you said about North America. Is that sort of the same picture for low voltage versus natural automation as you described for Q1?

Unfortunately, André, our reporting systems within the months are not that precise.

Sorry.

I wish they would be.

we we have to try if i just may ask the question i had also is on self-help and the cost actions that you're taking i think we're carrying about 30 million of savings from 2024 actions uh could you comment on whether you've been taking more actions in q1 and planning yes yeah absolutely we continue we continue to take actions uh because despite the fact that we are slightly positive it's still a soft environment and we need to continue to take actions and also

I have to say we are also taking the opportunity to clean up our coast base, and so we continue to take aggressive action there in several countries and mostly in European countries. And there are actions that are being prepared. There are some actions which are launched. It's difficult for me to give details because in many cases it's also submitted to union discussions, et cetera. But, you know, an order of magnitude is that we expect, I mean, you're right to mention the $30 million carryover from actions from last year. I think we expect almost the same or around the same at this stage for this year. I'm not going to be more precise than that, but you can expect to see at least the equivalent for this year.

Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

The next question is from Eric Lemary, CIC. Please go ahead.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. I got two questions, please. The first one, Germany, it's a small country for Excel, or small, I don't know, it's 1 billion. No, no, no, it's a decent country. We care about it. Okay. I was wondering whether Excel could benefit from this expected German stimulus plan. And I got some question on this fine of 124 million euros. I was wondering if there is any chance that this plan could be canceled in the future. Is there any chance that you could succeed to cancel that?

Eric, the answer is yes and yes. Let me elaborate a little bit on that. In Germany, obviously we are not a defense company, but that being said, there is a big spending plan which is decided and which is I mean, being right now organized in Germany and obviously it's going to have a critical effect on all activities. We are exposed to the different sectors like to many other sectors, you know that in Germany One of our most important end markets is industry. We are more exposed to industry in Germany than in other European countries. So we will benefit in general from that. We are obviously looking precisely at how the spending is organized and trying to target those customers who are the most likely to spend in the early years. So I think we're going to see effects of that at some point. Not right now. First of all, it has to be completely voted and ironed. It has to be organized, so it's not going to be immediate. What I think could be the most immediate effect would be an effect on overall industry confidence and customer confidence. That's usually the fastest to happen. which means that if either consumers or industry managers regain confidence in the future of the German economy, they may decide to unlock investment, which would have a beneficial effect on us. But at this stage, it's not in our figures. And frankly, I'm not even sure it's going to be in our figures in Q2, but we're going to see each other at the end of H1 to discuss that again. But yes, obviously, we will benefit from that. The €124 million fine, as we said at the time when we got fined, we disagree with the ruling. We have appealed last year, like I think the other three companies which were involved in that, Sonepa, Schneider and Legrand. So we have all appealed. We all think that we have good chances for many reasons that I could discuss individually with you because it's going to take too much time. But we really think that we have good chances. Now, if there is a reversal or reduction, it's not going to happen this year. It's probably going to be next year or the year after. So I hope before my retirement.

Thank you.

The next question is from Miguel Borrega, BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Just in terms of non-table pricing, which was still negative this quarter, how do you expect that to evolve through the rest of the year, considering what you just said about potentially mid to high single-digit pricing in North America in the second half, but also wanted your views on whether deflation in Europe could persist for the reminder of 2025. I ask because solar panels, for example, will see big tariffs in the US, so wondering if there could be some supply being redirected into Europe from that segment, which would then lead to further deflation. Any comments here would be appreciated.

First of all, obviously, pricing is going to overall increase between now and the rest of the year on non-cable. Now, what we have seen in the first quarter is that most categories were positive, except for one which is facing a high comparison effect, which is conduits. in the US. And so on this one, we had relatively strong negative pricing. This pricing gap, this strong negative pricing is improving because it's one of the categories which is obviously heavily impacted by tariffs on aluminum and steel. But nevertheless, it continues to be negative. Now coming to your question about possible deflationary effect on Europe, I'm not sure about that. Because if you take the example of solar panels, which is a good example, anywhere in the US the regulation was such that Chinese solar panels were not allowed. So it was already not an end market for the Chinese panels. So I'm not sure that you're going to see a big difference on this one. Can we see the same kind of effect in other categories where you would redirect a proportion of the Chinese production to Europe? That's a possibility. But in our industry, I don't identify, apart from solar panels, which is really the situation I'm talking about, where it was already not a market for China. I don't see any other category on which those kind of things would happen. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's an interesting question, but I have not identified any category where we could see such an effect.

And specifically on solar, also our exposure now is very low. We are at 3% of a group. Yes. Even if there is an impact, it will be very low.

Yes. So that's what I can tell you, Miguel. Thank you very much. Thank you.

The next question is from . Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First, can you be a bit more specific on France, the market share gain, any specific segments, and what are the drivers now that it's more than several quarters that you are gaining shares? You probably have a bit more visibility on where it's coming from exactly. And second, looking at your electrification business, can you detail the trends of the different segments, so solar, HVAC, EV, and how do you see the evolution going forward?

Okay, so why are we gaining market share in France? I think, first, it doesn't come from one place, Delphine. It's very homogeneous between all end markets and all regions, which means that it's not a specific one-off effect. It's linked to the fact that In France, which is one of our most mature countries, we have the various elements of the right value proposition for distributors, probably right. It's difficult to say more than that, but at the end of the day, we are not buying market share, to be very clear. And it probably has to do, and I would like to link that with the slide I was showing on our mid-term strategic plan. I would like to link that to what really the value proposition is for customers. I mean, they obviously want a fair price from us, and we are offering that, but they also are very interested in everything which can gain them time, open for them new horizon, additional services, And that's increasingly the case in more and more countries. And I think France is one of the countries where we have that right in terms of logistic services, in terms of expertise services, in terms of helping our customers enter into new segments. We are doing that quite well, I think, in France. And I think this is the reason why we are gaining market share all across the board. So for the second question about electrification businesses, I think overall we are not seeing a very good time for electrification businesses. As I commented at the end of the year, we are absolutely convinced that mid-term those are going to be fast-growing markets, but right now I have to say that solar is recovering now in some countries, notably Germany and other countries, but just because the base effect is starting to be better. So that's one thing. In terms of HVAC, it's a little bit the same situation. It's flattish compared to last year, but because the base effect is becoming easier, it's not a very strong recovery. And it has to do with the fact that in the countries where we are exposed, the Netherlands and France, The public incentives are not there anymore because of budget topics, especially in France. I should have said that on solar, the volume is flattish, but the price, we continue to have a carryover negative price. And the rest, EV is a small category for us, so I'm not going to comment on that. But on those two categories, solar and HVAC, I would say that the mid-term prospects remain very good, but at this stage, it's not something I'm betting the guidance of 2025 on. Our assumption is that it's going to be flattish.

Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Taxier, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

Thank you for your time today. We had a good first quarter and we are happy with what we delivered in an environment which is not that easy. As we commented, the future is full of both opportunities and also headwinds which will require us to be agile and to rely a little bit more on self-help, which we are doing. So overall, happy with our delivery and see you in July for the H1 results. Thank you very much.