Rolls Royce Hldgs S/Adr

Hello and welcome everyone to our 2022 half-year results presentation. I'm Isabel Green, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by our CEO, Warren East, and our CFO, Panos Kakoulis. Hello and welcome everyone to our 2022 half-year results presentation. I'm Isabel Green, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by our CEO, Warren East, and our CFO, Panos Kakoulis. As usual, today's presentation will begin with a summary of our operational and financial highlights from Warren, followed by a more detailed review of our financial results from Panos, and then Warren will talk you through how we're securing a sustainable future for the business. Our presentation will take just over 30 minutes, leaving time at the end for Warren and Panos to answer your questions. Before we begin, please take note of the safe harbour statement on slide two. As always, the full set of results materials can be downloaded from the investor relations section of our website, I'll now hand over to Warren.

Thank you Isabel. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for our results presentation. I'll start with a summary of our performance. We've made good progress in the first half with growth in order intake, revenue and cash flow and that's based on demand for our products and services which are improving meaningfully with another period of record order intake in power systems accompanied by continued recovery in civil aerospace engine flying hours and we have good visibility of revenues in defence with a strong order book. Second point, middle of the slide, we're taking the necessary actions to protect our business from the risks of inflation, supply chain disruption, and a tightening labor environment. We can see the benefits of productivity and efficiency improvements, and we expect to see more progress come alongside us being ever more disciplined on our commercial terms. And these actions taken together enable us to deliver on the commitments we've made working right across the group to deliver better performance for all of our stakeholders. Now let's turn to operational highlights. In civil aerospace, shown in the top left-hand box, picture of the Dassault 10X Falcon, we've seen some great milestones in the first half of 2022. Our new Pearl 10X engine powering that plane successfully underwent its first test run, and it didn't miss a beat. And Gulfstream's G800 business jet, which is powered by our Pearl 700 engine, achieved its maiden flight. In fact, some of you may have seen it across at Farnborough a couple of weeks ago. We've also assembled the first ultra-fan large engine demonstrator, which will go on test later this year with 100% sustainable aviation fuel. The cover picture is a picture of that engine. And more generally, for our newest engine programs, we're continuing to invest in ways to improve time on wing between services to maximize the value for us and for our customers. In defense, that's the top right hand box, we have a strong order book and we've achieved our first milestone on the B-52 program. That was a critical review in support of activities for the integration of the F-130 engine onto that airframe. In power systems, moving to the bottom left of the slide, we're delighted to announce another period of record order intake in the second quarter. Demand has been especially strong for power generation, with orders including mission-critical backup power for data centres and orders for some large customers like semiconductor companies worldwide. Finally, in our new market segment, on the bottom right, we've seen great progress too. This is a picture of us signing an MOU in Farnborough in July with Hyundai Motor Group to collaborate on bringing all electric propulsion and hydrogen fuel cell technology to the advanced air mobility market. And with Rolls-Royce SMR, As demand for power and energy independence increases, we've announced a short list of sites for our first SMR factory in the UK. As a reminder, this is important because we anticipate that 90% of our SMR products will be built in factories before being transported to sites for assembly. That factory-built modular approach will drive a significant reduction in the cost of continuous zero-carbon electricity, and that's an important part of the solution for energy independence. So turning to our financial summary, free cash flows have improved by £1.1 billion, and that reflects the higher engine flying hour receipts, which are up 43% versus the first half of 2021, as well as cost control and working capital discipline. At the same time, we are facing the impact of global supply chain challenges and cost inflation, but we're actively managing these to a sharper focus on pricing, productivity and cost. You'll hear quite a bit more on that from Panos as we go through some examples. We're partnering with key suppliers, ensuring that we have contractual pricing protection in place through long-term contracts. We're looking at innovative changes in our manufacturing processes to manage rising costs and supply chain bottlenecks, for example, by repairing and reusing spare parts where we can. and when necessary we're de-risking our customer deliveries by temporarily increasing inventories. We're also delivering on our commitments to rebuild our balance sheet in the medium term and we've now received the required regulatory approvals for the sale of ITP Aero and we expect that transition to complete in the coming weeks. The proceeds will be used to pay down the £2 billion UK export finance supported loan. Our liquidity position remains strong with £7.3 billion of liquidity, including £2.8 billion in cash at the end of the period. We had net debt of just over £5 billion, including leases, and no significant debt maturities before 2024. In terms of the guidance, The group targets for 2022, which we set out in February, are unchanged. This is despite the increasing challenges and risks around the pace of market recovery, global supply chain disruption, and rising inflation that we think may continue into 2023. And with that, I'll now hand over to Panos for a deeper dive into our financials. Thank you.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Warren. Despite a challenging external environment, we've delivered materially improved cash flows versus the first half of 2021. But we still have more work to do. Let's just take a look at the numbers. The results on the following slides were presented on an underlying basis for the continuing businesses in the group. Group revenues, 5.3 billion, that's 4% higher than last year on an organic basis. Revenue growth was strong in civil aerospace and power systems, with lower revenues in defence, which had a tough comparator last year. Operating profit of £125 million was below last year's £307 million, lower principally due to the absence of a foreign exchange revaluation credit in the first half of 2021 in civil aerospace, and that doesn't repeat this year. There was a one-off accounting adjustment of around about 270 million, about half of which unwound in the second half of 2021. That was already factored into our full year 2022 guidance, and as I said, it's not something we expect to repeat going forwards. Defence profits last year, well, they benefited by around about 45 million from legacy spare parts sales, which again, do not repeat in the first half of 2022. We reported a free cash outflow of 68 million compared with an outflow of 1.2 billion in the first half of last year. That continues our trajectory from the 4 billion outflow in 2020, the 1.5 billion outflow in 2021, and moving up towards a modest positive for the full year this year. In civil aerospace, total engine flying hours, including business aviation and regional flights, where they were up 33% year on year, showing a continued recovery in large engine business and a sustained high level of demand in business aviation. Large engine long-term service agreement flying hours, they rose by 43% in the first half to 4.5 million. Have to remember, we're still in the early stages of that recovery, so that's still only around about 60% of 2019 levels. Large engine major refurbs, they rose by 22%, although total shop visits were only up 6%. Again, we expect further growth in the second half of 2022. Civil aerospace revenues grew 8% year on year, and that's higher shop visit activity and long-term service agreement catch-ups offset by fewer OE large engine deliveries. The catch-ups, well, they reflect strong execution and commercial discipline. That means we've got higher anticipated profitability across the life of these contracts going forward. Civil Aerospace reported an operating loss of 79 million against a small profit last year. As I noted earlier, last year's profit included that one-off foreign exchange credit of around 270 million. Adjusting for this, catch-ups and some small favourable provision movements in the period means that Civil's underlying profitability was broadly flat year-on-year. Civil delivered positive 63 million of trading cash flow. Again, a significant 1.1 billion higher than last year. With costs rebased, as volumes recover, we see Civil Aerospace becoming the cash engine for the group. In May, we held a Civil Aerospace investor day in Derby. If you didn't attend, I'd really encourage you to watch it on our investor relations website. We set out five key value drivers for the business. One, maximize service receipts. Two, reduce service costs. Three, improve OE margins. Four, grow business aviation. And five, make sure we benefit from the favorable point in the investment cycle as we exit what has been a period of intense product development. And we're going to be reporting on these drivers on a consistent basis going forward. As part of that day, we also set out medium-term financial targets. based on engine flying hours recovering to 2019 levels by around 2024. Within those targets, we expect a low double digit compound annual growth rate in total revenues based on 2021 as the start year, a high single digit operating margin and trading cash flow to comfortably exceed operating profit. We remain confident in our ability to deliver these targets and in the operating leverage of the business as our revenues grow. Our defense business, that's a long cycle business, and it doesn't immediately benefit from the big geopolitical changes we're seeing at the moment in the wider world. However, rising budgets in most Western countries do underpin our confidence in the long-term outlook for this business and its annuity-like cash flows. We've recently won some very important contracts, Warren referred to the B-52, and there are other contracts we're bidding for, such as the future long-range assault aircraft for the US Army to replace its fleet of Black Hawk helicopters. And we're expecting a decision on that in the coming months. Underlying defense revenues, 1.6 billion. They were 9% lower than in the first half of last year. And operating profit was 189 million. That gives you an 11.7% margin. As I noted earlier, the first half of 2021 included an unusually high level of legacy spare engine sales, which added roughly 45 million to profit. Trading cash flow, 89 million, was equal to last year. In power systems, we've seen very strong demand. 53% growth in order intake in the period and a book to bill ratio of 1.5 with a record quarter for orders in Q2. Order cover is already at 100% for the rest of 2022. And in fact, in some of our end markets for 2023, we are close to full capacity already. Revenues in the period grew by 20% year on year. And that's despite some challenges around Ukraine and the supply chain that Warren referenced. Underlying operating profit, that was £119 million, giving an 8.7% margin against 3.5% in the prior period. Trading cash was an outflow of £76 million, compared with an inflow of £71 million in the prior period. Now that partly reflects some working capital investment to support the currently very high levels of revenue growth. We've also got some issues in the supply chain there, and that's resulted in inventory build, which we are working very hard on to make sure we reduce in the second half. Finally, let's look at new markets. That includes the SMR and electrical businesses. New markets reported an operating loss of 48 million in the first half of 2022. And that, as you'd expect, reflects the ramp up in R&D costs as we grow our teams. We've got just under half a billion of committed funds in place to cover the R&D costs for our SMRs over the next five years. And only 10% of that is the amount we will fund ourselves. The investments that we're making in this segment have a broader synergistic benefit across the whole group. And Warren's going to touch on that later. This next slide, that sets out our group cash flows, starts at underlying operating profit. Our free cash outflow was 68 million in the first half. That compares with an outflow in the prior period of 1.2 billion. Our stronger cash flow performance year to date gives us confidence in our ability to deliver modestly positive free cash flow for the full year. That 1.1 billion cash flow swing can be broken down into three broad buckets. Firstly, we saw an operating profit performance improvement of around about 490 million. And that largely reflects the growth in large engine flying hours in civil aerospace. Secondly, working capital, that was 350 million better, as inventory build was partly offset by strong customer collections in period, particularly in civil aerospace, and improved performance on payables. And thirdly, other impacts were 230 million better than the prior period, with a lower pension contribution and derivative settlement costs. and higher profits coming through from discontinued operations, offsetting higher interest costs. We saw limited impact in the period from concession payments. We started the year with around about 300 million of net concessions slipped from 2021. Now at that time, we thought those would largely unwind in 2022. Since then, we've seen those further delays in 787 deliveries and the associated concession payments. Important to note, though, that's largely offset by a reduction in concession receipts on new Trent 1000 deliveries, as Boeing itself manages its own inventory. So as a result, concession outflows are expected to be slightly lower than we originally anticipated. But there is a larger headwind coming in 2023, as those gross slips are compounded in 2023 by continued low receipts from Trent 1000 new engine deliveries. Now, when I started this role, I set out three clear priorities for the business. Deliver on our commitments, simplify how we report, and invest wisely for the future. I just want to give you some examples of our progress in each of those areas. So firstly, delivering on our commitments. We all know how challenging and uncertain the external environment is, given the war in Ukraine, the impact on supply chain, rising inflation, fears of recession and continued intermittent lockdowns in China. Nevertheless, we stay committed to delivering on what we have promised. I want to share with you some of the ways in which we're actively managing the current situation. Firstly, through commercial discipline and on pricing and also on contract management. In civil aerospace, we've been able to contractually pass on high input prices on both early and aftermarket through indexation clauses. In power systems, that's a shorter cycle business, we've also been able to raise prices in an environment where demand is very strong and margins are very closely leveraged to volumes. And in defense, we're working hard to manage supply chain costs through long-term purchasing agreements and focusing on pricing with customers. Secondly, we are focused on controlling our cost base to ensure that there is operating leverage as revenues grow. We focus down our supplier lists, seeking to work with the very best performing suppliers. In most cases, we have long-term agreements in place which offer us good protection for near-term price pressures. Now, case in point, titanium. We've already secured a long-term agreement with a US-based titanium supplier which means that we continue to be increasingly less reliant on titanium from Russia. Another example, on the Pearl 10X, where our innovative digital sourcing approach has allowed us to achieve a 10% cost reduction on parts by consolidating our spend with four high-performing suppliers. And more broadly in civil aerospace, we've taken proactive steps to further strengthen our focus on supplier management in the first half. That included very careful selective hiring to support and manage the supply chain. We've established tiger teams in those severely stressed parts of the supply chain, including the use of external specialists. On the commodity side, we've also had hedging in place to protect us from near-term volatility. An example would be nickel. We're currently hedged 75% for 2022 with significant levels of hedging in place for the next four years. Jet fuel were 80% hedged in 2022 with a ramp down out to 2025. Now finally working capital remains a key focus and in particular customer collections and driving down inventories. Next up simplify how we report. An example of how we are driving simplicity across the business is our new approach to foreign exchange hedging which is more cost effective brings us into line with our peers to allow comparability and allows us to more proactively manage risks. Historically, we've hedged a declining percentage of our foreign exchange exposure across a rolling 10-year horizon, and that was based on our projected US dollar revenues. Now, the issue that gave us going into COVID was we were carrying a very large hedge book, much larger than our peers, And because of the material impact COVID had on our medium-term forecast of US dollar revenues, we found ourselves over-hedged. And you're all aware there was a 1.7 billion cost to unwinding these hedges that we charged in 2020 that we feel the cash flow impact of until 2026. It's worth remembering every $1 cent movement in the hedge rate impacts our operating profit and cash flows by around about 25 to 30 million pounds. Under our new approach, we're going to be carrying a smaller hedge book with a declining percentage of cover over a five-year period, which will mean that market movements in foreign exchange will impact us sooner. The chart on the slide, that shows our current hedging position. We've got some flexibility to move these hedges around, but we are largely hedged at $1.50 per pound until 2026. From then, you'll start seeing the benefits coming through from the new hedging approach. And my third priority, making sure we invest wisely. We've got strict criteria that we follow when considering new investments. Firstly, they need to be aligned with a group strategy and focus on sustainability. Warren's going to pick up on that theme shortly. 75% of our R&D investment in the medium term will be on lower carbon technologies and making our existing products compatible with net zero. We also continue to invest in improving the profitability of our products by increasing time on wing, efficiency and productivity. And whilst we're seeing increasing investment in new markets, our established businesses are critical too. Around 80% of our capex and R&D this year will be focused on civil power systems and defense. Next, we very carefully consider the risk reward profile of each investment. based on an estimate of its IRR in a range of scenarios. Our investments, well, we aim that they generate a combination of near, medium term and longer term returns. That gives us a balance of protecting and growing our established businesses and pursuing longer term growth opportunities at the same time. An example of an investment that will generate a return in the near term is the work we've done on extending the time on wing in the Trent 700 engine. At the other end of the spectrum are our investments in electrolysers and in SMRs. Now, for these more longer-dated investments, we make sure that we have a sufficiently high IRR on a risk-adjusted basis. Just to give you an idea from a process perspective, all investments over £5 million are reviewed by our Group Investment Review Committee. That meets monthly. I've chaired all of those meetings since I started with the business. We set a very high bar when considering new investments, and there are many examples of projects that didn't make the grade. And we continue to focus on in-flight reviews of investments to make sure we improve the accountability and delivery on existing projects. And I'm going to keep coming back to these three themes in the future. So delivering on our commitments, simplify how we report, and making sure we invest wisely. Now my final slide. Despite the challenges around inflation and the supply chain, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our commitments. At the group level, we still expect to deliver low to mid single digit revenue growth, a broadly unchanged operating margin year on year, and modestly positive free cash flow. That guidance is based on expected improvements in civil aerospace, driven by higher large engine sales and also increases in shop visits. Our divisional guidance has changed slightly. In civil aerospace, we now expect to deliver good revenue growth in 2022. In defence, we're now guiding for a low double-digit operating margin in the full year for 2022. That's lower year-on-year due to higher investment spend and also the non-repeat of those legacy spare parts sales I mentioned earlier. Now, lastly, just to help the modelling, a word on taxes. We're still expecting group cash tax payments to be broadly similar to the £185 million paid in 2021. Now, we expect the P&L charge to be lower than this, but due to the geographical mix of our profits and losses, we will see a higher than normal P&L tax rate this year and in 2023. And with that, I'll hand back to Warren.

Good. Thank you, Pals. Now, securing a sustainable future. When we talk about sustainability, of course, we mean in terms of the energy transition and addressing climate change. But we also mean ensuring business sustainability with disciplined investment for sustainable returns. But before I talk about the future, I'd also like to touch upon last week's announcement regarding the new CEO appointment and a few personal reflections. It's been a great privilege to have been entrusted with the stewardship of this company over the last several years, and I've enjoyed support from loads of people. I especially want to thank the amazing people at Rolls-Royce who make it all happen, in spite of some really challenging events and indeed all the changes that I have thrust upon them. We've dealt with some major challenges in that period, and I'm pleased to reflect on how much the company has changed in that time, indeed the appetite for further change that we've developed. Rolls-Royce is now much leaner, more agile, and more focused than it's ever been. We've taken significant costs out and developed a more cost-conscious culture across the whole organization. But we've not lost the focus on excellence, nor our ingenuity, which enables us to punch well above our weight. We've developed more efficient, durable, and sustainable products and services that will serve our customers for decades to come. And in addition, we've embarked on a net zero pivot. As you know, in my book, disruption like this spells opportunity. So I'm more optimistic than ever about the future. I'm also proud of our broader leadership team, which, like our people at large, is on average younger, much more diverse and much more agile. That gives me the confidence to pass the baton to Tuvan, who joins us in January. Together, they will create that sustainable future for Rolls-Royce. Now, on a sustainable future, the number one thing is to make the group sustainable as a business. Key to this is leveraging the asset, which is our installed base. The largest earnings potential lies in our large engines powering the world's youngest widebody airline fleet, where we power the majority of aircraft types available for airlines to buy today. Alongside this, we have over 9,000 business jet engines and more than 16,000 defence engines, as well as over 40,000 customers for our power systems products. And as we outlined at our civil investor day in Derby recently, we work intensely to increase the profitability of our installed base, and that's the asset with significant barriers to entry that drives our sustainability from a business point of view. Now, I want to shine a light on the technology behind the business opportunity in the other sense of the word sustainability. We're a business that's focused on power, more accurately perhaps, turning stored energy into useful power in particularly difficult applications. This offers challenges, but it also creates excellent barriers to entry once you've developed that domain expertise. Now, you hear today about alternative forms of stored energy, and it can all sound very complex, but actually this is a continuation of our long journey. For much of the time since, say, 1940, we've worked with two forms of stored energy, fossil hydrocarbons and nuclear power. Looking forward, sticking essentially with the same difficult applications where we draw on our decades of expertise and those barriers to entry I mentioned, we move from two forms of stored energy to four. If we look at the hydrocarbon stream, we anticipate that over the next 20 years, we will see a switch to synthetic fuels. It will remain prevalent for decades in our reciprocating engines, but in particular, it's going to be relevant for our gas turbines for long-haul aviation. we're ensuring that our gas turbines are ready now for that transition. Looking to nuclear, moving up the slide, we have multi-decades of experience in providing safe nuclear power in a really challenging application, and that gives us the confidence in our capability to deliver our SMR solution. The huge reduction in the cost of continuous zero carbon electricity that our SMRs provide makes us firm believers that it is the right solution to decarbonize the grid and to enable standalone industrial applications such as producing the synthetic fuels and at the top of the slide, the hydrogen. There are even future opportunities in space applications with micro reactors. Now electrification is an established trend with progress in battery technology. And for us, initially, this means using battery storage for hybrid propulsion and microgrid solutions on land. However, this is rapidly becoming relevant in aviation. With several contracts in urban air mobility and commuter aircraft for full electric power and propulsion, these subsectors will produce revenue and profit relatively soon. We can see full electric and hybrid and more electric solutions moving from smaller aircraft to larger ones as the technology matures. Now, in order to achieve true net zero, we will, I'm sure, be deploying hydrogen-based power and propulsion solutions in time, even to our wide-body customers in long-haul aviation. And I'll show how we prioritize and invest into those alternative forms of energy storage using hydrogen as an example if we move to the next slide. Let's just look at the hydrogen pathway. We can deploy hydrogen in a reciprocating engine and a gas turbine with hydrogen fuel cells in between. The grey areas on the slide represent the investment periods and the green areas show when we can make revenue and earn profit. Hydrogen is gaining relevance in many markets and our customers look to us to help them decarbonize. And some of these are a way off, but we need to be ready with the technology as that technology and infrastructure matures. You can see that whilst we must be active and present, hydrogen and the gas turbine together, so wide-body aviation, is a minimal investment today. And based on what we can see, revenue is not likely before the late 2030s. But we're investing now where we see short-term potential for deployment and business return at the top of the slide. For example, around reciprocating engines and coming down the slide in fuel cells moving from land-based stationary to mobile and later into the air. There are opportunities, too, for inorganic growth. For instance, the recent acquisition of the electrolyser specialist Heller will help us to move to market quicker in power systems, alongside disciplined, prudent investment in some cases. The best approach, though, is to form partnerships. At Farnborough, the partnership that we announced with Hyundai that I mentioned earlier includes hydrogen fuel cells. And we also announced there a partnership with EasyJet, and that's all about hydrogen in gas turbines. These investments and partnerships are creating knowledge, skills and capabilities that flow across our group, creating benefits and applications between our different businesses. It isn't just about the technology, it's about the people. You've heard me say many times before that our key differentiator is our people. So I'm pleased we continue to be a company where talented individuals are keen to work. Since 2021, we've seen an increase of 48% in applications for our early careers and 58% of the graduate hires in 2022 are female and 36% from ethnic minority backgrounds. In addition to hiring, though, it's even more important that we create an environment where all our people can deliver to their full potential. And that means being really inclusive. We support over 20 employee resource groups across all diversity strands, including faith, ethnicity and gender networks. The largest one of those is PRISM, which supports our lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community here in the UK. And we're proud that this network has received multiple externally recognised awards. We can see how inclusion coupled with the right incentivization encourages the right business outcomes. For instance, looking at our patent award scheme in 2022, nearly half of the new inventions filed related to our net zero ambitions. We've introduced a new approach to learning, and this includes a refreshed, digitally enabled approach for all of our people to get learning out really quickly. One key aspect of this is a digital internal marketplace for so-called gigs. These are bite-sized pieces of work that are matched on the basis of capability to people anywhere across the organization, leading to much more agile working and ensuring that we develop a capability irrespective of any internal organizational boundaries. And that's especially crucial for highly sought-after fields like electrical engineering. So let's conclude. A reminder of what we have covered. We've progressed well in the first half of the year with substantially better cash flow as we manage our costs and the markets recover. It's a tough environment, though, and we're addressing this with a focus on the operational and commercial actions that can protect our performance. And we're sticking to our commitments. The disposal of ITP has been approved and it will complete in the coming weeks. We're well positioned to achieve our guidance. I'm convinced that with the best people and breakthrough technologies for the energy transition and a more modern and much leaner business, we have a bright and exciting future ahead. And with that, I'd now like to hand over to the moderator to open the meeting to Q&A.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for a name to be announced. We will first start with webcast questions while we compile the Q&A to you.

That's you, Isabel. Thank you. And so a question here from the webcast and to Warren, actually. So Warren, your results today have got quite a lot of noise and you say you're progressing well, but I can't see it coming through in the numbers. Can you tell me a bit more about what's going on in the business?

Yes, I say we're progressing well because we can see growth, we can see growth coming through in revenues, we can see growth in orders, our power systems businesses just had a record quarter for orders and actually the first quarter was very strong for orders as well so we now have a record order book there and I can see a massive swing in the cash flow. You know, reminder of the trajectory, you know, COVID minus 4.2 last year, minus one and a half. This year, we said we'd be modestly cash positive. And the first half has set us up very well for that being just a 68 million pound outflow. And what's really driving that is a recovery in engine flying hours in our aerospace business as well. Large engine flying hours up 43%. And so I think that the indications of progress. Now, when you look at our profit and just compare first half this year to first half last year, then I think that's what's caused a little bit of noise this morning. I think it's important that we understand the moving parts behind that. So I'm going to ask Panos to...

Explain that one and I think you're right at first blush when you look period on period of what's happened to operating profit And I called it out in the presentation 125 versus 307 it does look and what we tried to do is just be helpful to pick out What what's really going on behind that and particularly when we're in the environment? We are now of going through the break-even that relatively small numbers either way can have a distorting effect So what we've tried to do is pick out things that are effectively one-off and we try to do that in a balanced way so you'll see that there is a non-repeat of a revaluation credit there's a foreign exchange revaluation credit around about 270 million in last year's numbers due to the change in foreign exchange rates there was also a 45 million benefit from the legacy spare part sales within the defense business last year didn't repeat this year again that's consistent with what we what we expected Year on year, we're benefiting from more positive catch-ups this year than last year, and you can see a benefit of around about 50 million coming through from that. And also this year, we've got a one-off write-off on a legacy contract from a business that we sold of just under 30 million. So when you strip all of those elements out and say, right, what is going on with the underlying business, you end up with an operating profit a little bit up year on year. Again, it's sort of indicative of the underlying progress.

Now we're going to start to take questions from audio lines. Please stand by. And the first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard, Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Thanks so much. Good morning. Hello. Hello. We can hear you.

We can hear you. Okay.

Yeah. A couple of questions from me. First of all, Warren, you mentioned that you're enforcing indexation in your contracts and that the power division is seeing good pricing. Is this enough to cover the cost inflation that you're seeing coming through the system? And is there a bit of a timing mismatch here that you're getting the price benefit before the cost impact? And then secondly, Thanos, my phone was giving me grief when you were talking about the 787 payments and how that's going to flow out. I was wondering if you could clarify what you said. Thank you.

Yeah, I understand your point, Robert, about price before cost. And we're very, very tuned in to that. The first thing to do is, of course, pass on as much of the inflationary pressure as you can from a contractual perspective. And then you have to look to your costs and think about how we can control those costs. which we're absolutely doing and you know part of that is softening the blow of the inflationary pressures by things like hedging, things like long-term supply agreements with our suppliers, focusing on the smaller number of suppliers so that we can actually strike better agreements. You know some of these supply agreements fortunately do stretch out for a very long period of time and so we consider that we're well protected. There is a balance to be struck between the pressure that you're getting from costs going up and how much you're able to pass on and when I talk about commercial discipline I mean tilting the balance of that so that it is largely within our favour.

Yeah, just a bit to add to it, and you can look at the three businesses in different ways. So the Civilera space business, we are, and I think you talked about enforcing indexation, we are being robust around how we do that. You can see a little bit of the benefit coming through the future benefit effectively coming through from the catch-ups. A lot of those catch-ups are driven by the expectations through that enforcement. From a cash perspective, it actually comes a little bit, has a little bit of a lag because it sort of catches up year on year. On the defense side, it tends to be through contract renewals, which happen regularly. So again, a little bit of a lag there. Within power systems, when you have got record demand and a very strong order book, you can be much more regular around price increases. And as Warren has said, the other element is you control costs. So we've been clear around focusing down on that the critical suppliers, the ones that are the best performing suppliers, and to be a best performing supplier, it's not just about cost, it's about being able to deliver to the highest quality as well. And you'll have heard maybe in the presentation, we talk about digital sourcing on the Pearl 10X, That's a fancy way of saying we had a supplier conference and 10% reduction in pricing going forward. And that gets locked in with very low levels of indexation. And that together, as Warren has said, with hedging around commodities, puts us in good shape around that. On the 787 payments. Coming into the year, we talked last year about that 300 million slip from 21 into 22 on concession payments we expected to go out. Those haven't happened yet. They look like they might slip into the following year. It doesn't actually have as big a benefit in terms of lower outflow happening this year as you would have anticipated because Boeing themselves are managing their own inventory. So new concession receipts are lower than we expected. So the net impact is not big this year. It does, though, create a little bit of a headwind for next year as some of those slip into next year, those payments without necessarily having new orders coming in that would generate new concession receipts.

That's great, thank you. Thank you.

Thank you, Robert. Now we're going to take our next question. Please stand by. The next question comes from David Perry from JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Yes, good morning. Yes, we can. Okay, great. I've got four questions. I don't know if that's too greedy. They're quite short. The first one, the defense guidance of low double-digit margin I just wanted to clarify. I mean, are we thinking 10 to 12? And then is that a baseline going forward? Because defense margins historically have been hard to forecast. The second one is the finance charge was a lot higher than I expected in H1. I just wondered if you can help us think about the full year and maybe even going forward, because obviously you've got ITP proceeds and you're going to pay us in debt. Tax charge. Clearly very high. Will the second half be the same as the first half? And then the last one, please, the fourth one, the LTFA inflow, 433 in H1. I think that the CMD, you talked about 500-ish a year. So is it still 500 for this year, or is it going to be meaningfully higher than that? Thank you very much.

I'll try and keep them as you said quite short ones I'll try and keep them short and sweet I think on on defense it's consistent with where we were expecting this year to be and we wanted to be more explicit about that guidance as we went through the into the second half just to make sure to be as helpful as possible around that last year we did have a little bit of the number being flattered by those legacy spare engine sales so that's why you see that coming down It is now representative, I would say, of the mix going forward. So some of the older work was a little bit of a higher margin. And we got the impact coming through of the single source regulations as well. So you can think of it as that sort of level going forward. And the range you talked about is a sort of sensible range to be thinking about, maybe a little bit towards the higher end of that 10 to 12. On the finance charges, In terms of the actual P&L charge this year, there's a little bit of extra this year because last year the UK EF loan, the two billion, we took out sort of midway through the first half. So you've got the anniversary effects of that for a full six month period. But think of that as being sort of the charge going forward adjusted for ITP proceeds. So as we said in the release, ITP proceeds, we're going to use to pay down the 2 billion UK export finance loan. And that's our only floating interest rate loan. All the other loans are at fixed rate. So that will give you an idea. And tax, the tax charge does look unusual because we've got two territories, the US and Germany, where we are tax paying In the UK, we make taxable losses and we've got a lot of loss to use going forward. So there's no actual charge that comes through from that. So you do get a slightly odd-looking number because you've got two taxpaying jurisdictions and the largest one isn't. From a cash perspective, think of last year and this year being broadly the same. In terms of the LTSA, you're right, back in Derby on the 13th of May, we sort of talked about in the medium term being around about a 500 million number on the LTSAs. It is going to be meaningfully more than that this year. You quoted the 433 for the first half of this year. It's going to be again meaningfully more than that as those engine flying air receipts come through. The relationship of that with actual shop visits happening and some of that LTSA creditor effectively ending up taking through revenue that's one of the sort of judgments that we have to take but it will be meaningfully more than the 500 this year.

Just to follow up on that, the 500 a year then is that an average if it's much better this year is it lower in the future years or is it just this year is a one-off and it's still the 500 a year going forward?

I think we said 500 by the medium term, so over the next few years. It is going to be higher levels than that, depending on the trajectory of the engine flying hour receipts and the level of shop visits going forward.

Yeah, I mean, I think an elevated rate in the short term is a logical consequence of the sector is recovering from COVID, flying is starting to happen and the shop visits are going to follow. I mean, don't forget we've got a load of shop visits that pre-COVID would have happened over the last year or so that have effectively been delayed and that's what's causing the LTSA to be at a higher rate right now.

Thank you very much.

Now we're going to take our next question. And the question comes from George Zhao from Bernstein. Your line is open, please ask a question.

Hi guys, good morning everyone. Good morning. My first question is, you know, how do you assess the health of your supply chain as you and the OEMs consider potential, you know, wide-body production ramp-up? You know, we're seeing a lot of supply constraints on the narrow-body side of engines right now. And, you know, while clearly the wide-bodies, you know, they're not facing the same level of ramp-up as the narrow-bodies, you know, are there risks that some of your suppliers that are involved in, you know, the different programs could face some challenges in ramping up? And secondly, you know, I want to understand a bit more about the present indexation on the LTSA. You know, we've heard some of the other peers comment that they're more preserved against inflation on the time and material versus the one-sum agreement. So, you know, how do your contacts here work here? You know, is there more of a cap here? within the LTSAs where, you know, for which we can pass on the cost inflation, that may be, you know, less favorable than the outside of mature agreements. Thanks.

So I think the key difference between narrow body and wide body is obviously the absolute volumes and that's why the situation is very intense in the single aisle space at the moment because everybody didn't quite come to a grinding halt but everybody suddenly went very slow and now they're being pressured to ramp up very steeply, but the numbers are all large. Obviously, as you pointed out, wide body is a slower recovery, which gives us all some breathing space. but also the absolute numbers are much much smaller. Now we talked about and panel cited a supply chain conference a moment ago in an answer to an earlier question and you know that's the sort of engagement that we are having with suppliers. Basically, we are spending more with fewer suppliers. The relationship with those suppliers is richer. The contract terms can be longer and more rigorous. And so those are the steps that we're taking. Obviously, there's real world risks that all of these suppliers face, but by close working relationship with those suppliers, and we've hired people, we're hiring people specifically to manage suppliers at the moment, and we also have task forces from within our business working with suppliers. And I think those measures taken together put us in reasonable shape and we do anticipate the wide-body volumes recovering, not sort of immediately, so we do have some time for this, but we can see them recovering. I've been quite vocal in the media about commercial discussions ramping up and that is going to result in new OE demand over the coming years, but we think we're pretty well positioned for it. LTSA price escalations and the like.

Just a couple of sort of points of detail around the management and the supply chain. It's procurement specialists, and we find around about 70 extra people, specialists in that area. And those of you who were at the Civil Day back in Derby will remember Sebastian Resch, our operations director. He always talks about, it's about boots on the ground. It's about spending time with the suppliers to make sure that we're in the right place in the queue and we understand day to day and we manage day to day what's going on around that supply chain. On the indexation point, I think you asked, is there a limit? Is there a ceiling? Effectively, is there a cap? Yeah, actually, there's a collar. So first few percentage points, we can pass on directly. Then there's a collar of a couple of percentage points. And then beyond that, what's called hyperinflation. from a contract terminology perspective, we can pass that on again. But each contract will be negotiated on its own terms but that's the broad shape. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Hello, it's Isabel again. I've got a question from the webcast. Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies has written her question in, so I'd like to read two questions out from her, please, if I may. Firstly, stripping out all the one-offs in civil, it appears there's a 100 million year-on-year increase in operating profits for the division. Can you provide some colour on what drove this between OE and aftermarket or between large engines and others? And the second question from Chloe, please. Can you detail what drove the catch-up recorded in civil this half? Additionally, how are you seeing the trend XWB after market trending in terms of operating performance?

Okay, you can pick up XWB. Yeah, you go. So just in terms of stripping out the one-offs, when I gave the response earlier on, I was looking at the one-offs across the whole group. The one-offs that specifically apply to to the civil business are 270 million foreign exchange credit from last year. It doesn't repeat, so strip that out. The net year-on-year benefit of the catch-ups, which is just around just over 50 million and then we had a little bit of provision released this year versus last year which gave us a benefit actually when you strip those out you end up with civil in the first half being broadly flat so it's I think it's the hundred million he talks about it is broadly flat if you unpick that to say right what is behind that from both an OE and services perspective OE We are broadly flat. You can see the sort of installed deliveries first half this year versus first half last year. It's broadly flat. The mix is actually more in favour of business aviation than wide body. So that gives us a little bit of a margin uptick. Services, on the other hand, you can see quite, I think, about a 22% for memory increase around services. But that's more, that's on the wide body and 6% overall on all shop visits. the mix goes the other way a little bit on that one. So you look at those two underlying operating drivers and that will get you to the broadly flat once you strip out those one-offs. In terms of what happens going forward, and what underpins our view around the outlook for the full year there is a significant ramp up in shop visits in the second half which generates a significant amount of profit and a number of spare engine sales we'd originally thought there'd be a few more spare engine sales in the first half but those have now moved into the second half and that's a combination of as I mentioned of spare engine sales to customers and also to third parties that operate a pool in terms of what drove the catch-ups A lot of that catch-up is around pricing and it's around that pricing, that commercial discipline that we've been talking about, particularly around business aviation as those indexation clauses effectively come into effect and mean that we've got greater profitability on those contracts going forward. And I've stressed it a few times around the importance of looking at catch-ups and what they're telling you because they are saying that over the life of those contracts, if it's a positive catch-up over the life of those contracts, We expect those to be more profitable going forward. And there is a catch up now when we look at how much we've traded in the past. Works both ways. So we need to be balanced around that. So within defence, you'll see there's a 22 million charge in defence. around some risks on inflation.

Yes, XWB performance, I'm actually not quite sure whether you mean how the shop visits are going or how the engine's performing and therefore needing shop visits but let me have a go. We continue to be pleased with XWB. The actual sort of in-service performance of the engine is excellent and we get great feedback from our customers. We have been gradually pushing out the service interval on the 84Ks through a process of inspections because obviously we don't want to do a shop visit until we absolutely... have to and that's been encouraging and we've spoken about that before and then those who came to Derby I think saw lots of activity aimed at systematically extending the service interval and you know we expect that to continue on both the 84k and the 97k over the coming years. If that's what you meant by the performance and shop visits then that's the story.

Thank you. I've got two more questions. They're quite short, so I'm going to ask them both one after the other. The first one from Exel, a very short question. Where do you expect working capital to come out for the year? And then secondly, from Spinecap, could you give us a bit more detail on what changed on the FX hedging and how much net US dollar exposure you expect to have by 2024 or 2025?

I think you can do both of these.

Yeah, I can pick that up. In terms of working capital for the full year, you'd expect to see a sort of slightly negative working capital. That unwind of inventories is going to be a little bit more than, from where we are now, it's going to be a little bit more than offset by the increase in the performance on payables. So expect it to be a sort of slight negative for the full year. In terms of the FX hedging, current book I think is around about 21 billion in terms of exposures going forward. As I said in the presentation, the aim of the new policy is to make life a little bit simpler for everyone in comparing us with others. Also allows us to be more proactive in how we manage that risk as well. So you'll see a policy going forward of a declining cover over a five-year period. For that to fully be in effect, it's going to take a few years because we've got a hedge book at the moment. I guess the past policy means we're 100% hedged for the next five years. As that unwinds and we put the new policy in place, you'll see that spike coming down over time.

Thank you. So back to live.

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Olivia Charlie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please ask a question.

Hi. Morning, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. My first question is just a follow-up on the shop visits. I know you just mentioned with Chloe that you're expecting to see a big step up in the number of shop visits happening in the second half. And I was wondering if you could just give us some more colour on that. I mean, I can see from the release on the first half there's only been a pretty modest step up in shop visit numbers in the first half. And the guidance I think that you've given for the full year implies a sort of 20% increase in the midpoint. So I'm just wondering what's driving that really material step up in the second half and what kind of is giving you confidence in the ability to sort of step those volumes up? And then just a second question around engine flying hours. Could you give us a sense of what the exit rate is for the first half or where you're tracking roughly now and therefore what you're expecting to see in the second half? And then also just sort of what gives you confidence in this path to full recovery by 2024 and what are you seeing in sort of Asia Pacific and China as well? Thank you very much.

Just in terms of shop visits, Olivia, so you saw just over, I think just over 400 in the first half And we're guiding to around between 1100 and 1200 over the full year. And the big driver of that, frankly, is the engine flying hours growth. As that growth comes back, the shop visits follow. So that's what we're seeing. That's what we're seeing effectively being scheduled as we go into the second half. So that's the big driver around that.

Yep. And on engine flying hour trajectory, then... As I said a few moments ago, for the first half as a total, then we're at about 60% of 2019 levels. We guided for between 60 and 70% for the year as a whole. We're reasonably comfortable with that now because obviously having got to 60 for the first half, the exit rate is above 60%. You know, we track it on a weekly basis. And, you know, we're round about, or we have had over recent weeks, around about 60%, 65% or so. Now, exactly how much of that is going to continue into Q4, it's hard for us to say. But, you know, we... Having reached 65% we're pretty confident we can see through our power systems business actually early signs of the actual lockdown situation in China starting to get a bit better. The lockdown situation in China has been the key retardant for the Rolls-Royce fleet of engines in terms of keeping our engine flying hours back. So I think that's going to be a contributory factor in the second half to move up from from these rates towards the 70% as we get to the year end. Elsewhere in Asia, we are seeing demand and flights full. We spoke to a lot of airlines at Farnborough a few weeks ago and people are reporting full flights and challenges with actually being able to sort of deliver on those. So it's not a demand issue at the moment. So we're still confident of that recovery in 24. I think it'll depend, you know, the actual rate will depend on, you know, the broader economic climate. And it's a little bit too early to speculate on that actual rate, but you can see us getting very close to, to 2019 levels by 2024.

And maybe just give a little bit more colour around China. So I think when we look back to 2019, China was around, China Airlines were about 17% of engine flying hours. They're around 11% at the moment, and they're at 40% of 2019 levels. So there's quite a lot of scope for growth within that, as those lockdowns ease. Brilliant, thanks.

Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Humphrey from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Hi. Good morning. Thanks very much. I've got a couple on power systems, if I may. Firstly, it seems like a lot of the strength you highlighted in orders there was around backup power supply and the like. Can you go into a bit more detail on what is driving that particular strength in the short term? Clearly, a lot of the discussions that we're having at the moment are around potential gas shortages in Europe over the winter. Is there any kind of overlap there with your business? And secondly on that, I wanted to ask a bit more about inventory. You've highlighted that you're expecting some unwind in the inventory you've built up over the second half of the year. I wanted to kind of ask about the character of that. I mean, is that inventory building the first half? Has that been sort of prophylactic to protect against some of the supply chain issues that we're seeing? Or are there kind of project delays that we need to keep an eye on? And to what extent are those within your control?

Okay, let me kick off. I think some of the demand that we're seeing around PowerGen at the moment is a little bit of... recovery from projects that were held up during 2020 and 2021. And so, you know, we're seeing the orders come through from those now. And yes, PowerGen has been strong. With regard to the sort of overall energy situation, gas potential gas rationing in Europe and so on. Actually this is being a positive driver for us not so much in terms of power gen but in terms of demand for engines for fracking as people seek to mitigate the gas supply challenges. So we've actually seen a positive impact as a result of that I think the inventory build is no it's not to do with project delays it's to do with a combination of proactive building for the second half which under normal circumstances we do anyway in in power systems to manage our load throughout the year but also the the supply chain challenges and the blockages. I think Panos said a few moments ago, mentioned about the semiconductors that we've seen holding us back in power systems and some of it is undoubtedly due to that. One of these task forces that Panos referred to and is specifically around semiconductors in power systems and we have been successful there and we've secured supplies for ourselves and for our suppliers so that we can get that inventory shifted in the second half of the year and we're continuing with that task force by the way because We do anticipate that to be a very tight situation at least into the middle of 2023 and so we want to clear the way ideally through to the end of 2023 as far as that particular part of the supply chain is concerned.

Maybe just give you a little bit of a broader feel around supply chain within power systems because I think this time last year we were highlighting it as we could see some of that coming and it's maybe an advantage of having a shorter cycle business within the group that we can see that a little bit earlier than maybe in the longer cycle businesses. Every week, there's broadly 30 to 50 suppliers that the team there are constantly monitoring what is going on. Because any one, and it's not just microchips, it could be across a number of areas, that any one of those could cause a bit of a line stop. So they manage it at a very tight level. And you can see what that trend looks like on a week-to-week basis. So it's that sort of level of granularity to make sure we keep production going.

And tracking that, we saw through the second half of last year and we reported, in fact, that our full year results, how that had trended down during the second half of the year and into Q4, but it has trended up again in the first part of this year. And what we're seeing is the impact of that right now. I think that's it. Thanks, Andrew.

Thank you. Thanks so much. I'll just wait there for a minute.

Thank you, Andrew. The next question comes from Nick Cunningham from Agency Partners. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. Yes, coming back to EFH, it looks very much like you'll hit the 80% number sometime in 23, perhaps on average for 23 as a whole. And you used to say not so long ago that that 80% was key to a free cash flow of, I think, as much as 750 million. does that do you still recognize that number does it still stand um and if not what what's different you know in in very broad terms what what are the big deltas if you like um and then the second question is much more general um and sort of geopolitical if you like um around china risk um i mean russia is obviously shown as the risk to trap assets through western corporate Time is an order of magnitude, several orders of magnitude bigger than that, plus also a much greater supply chain risk, and it's a really big end market, which Russia wasn't. Is there anything at all Rolls-Royce can do to manage that risk, or is it just there, or at least is there something you can do to manage that risk on an immediate term basis, or is it something you think about? Thank you.

Yeah, I didn't actually fully hear that second part of that question. Did you?

No.

Let's do the EFH one. I mean, broadly, Nick, yes, we at the same time gave a rule of thumb that said approximately £30 million for 1%. And, you know, if we are... around about 60 to 65 percent for somewhere between 60 and 70 percent for the year as a whole then the extra the extra sort of 15% gives us an extra 450 million pounds, which broadly puts us into the zone. So I don't think we're sort of too far out. Obviously there's been, since we made that comment, there's been a huge number of puts and takes and changes in the boundary conditions around there. But yeah, I think if you peer at those numbers, you can still see it.

I guess the bit I'd add on that, lots of things have changed since then. We talked about some of the other risks and challenges. We'll give guidance on 23 when we get there.

Nick, is there any chance you could sort of repeat the China bit?

Yeah, sorry. What I was saying was that there's clearly increasing geopolitical risk around China, around supply chain and market demand, potential trapped assets like we saw in Russia. Is there anything that Rolls-Royce can do to manage that risk in perhaps, not in the near term, but in the medium term? Or is it just too big to be able to manage that?

Yeah. Well, look, China remains an important market for us for both civil aerospace and for power systems. And for the time being, we're continuing to do that business in China. And I see huge demand for air travel in China on wide-body jets. And I don't actually see the Chinese getting those jets from anywhere else right now other than the Western suppliers. And, you know, so the Chinese airlines remain important customers for us, I think, for the foreseeable future. Yes, there's geopolitics, which is going to happen around that. But, you know, we can only control what we can control. And that means supporting our Chinese customers. In terms of the supply chain, then... We totally understand that there may be some tightening of the export control sort of in regulations and what we're allowed to source from where and so on but we aren't hugely dependent on Chinese suppliers and in most cases you know we have multiple supplies for every vital commodity that we really need or every vital part. We do have a small handful of single source suppliers but we're not really seeing China as a major risk there at the moment. It's one to be monitored, it's clearly in the discussion for us as an executive team, it's clearly in discussion for us as a board and I think you can rely on us behaving quite sensibly around that.

And I think to speak on that specifically coming into this year, A lot of things changed geopolitically as we came into this year and what we've been very active in doing and Warren talked about as an executive of the board, making sure we properly scenario plan and we looked at two particular new emerging risks coming into the year, inflation and how we were going to manage and risk manage around inflation. And the other one was around China. What if there was something very dramatic on China? We're not just going to wait to react to it. What can we do now to make sure we're in the right position?

Thank you. That's incredible. Thanks.

Thank you, Nick. Please stand by. The next question comes from . Your line is open. Please ask a question.

Yes, good. Good morning, Warren. Good morning, panel. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. And I'm sorry if I've missed some things. The line quality here has been a bit troublesome. Two ones I can. Time and material, we almost don't talk about it anymore on the calls, but it more than doubled in the first half, and it was more than all of your P&L aftermarket revenue growth. Yet we're still less than half below our previous, 50% below our previous sort of first half sort of peaking levels in T&M. I'm just wondering if you can give us any flavor in terms of shop visit demand on that side of business, how that's trending. And then secondly, guys, just so returning to a popular theme of escalation, on the OE side, My understanding is that it applies to your schedules of PDPs and PUPs, right? So therefore, it's going to accelerate the cash you get coming in. So you should, in fact, get that on the OE side at any rate. You should be getting a benefit from timing, from higher escalation rates, right, in terms of your cash in. Is that a correct understanding on the OE side, or is there something I'm missing?

Yeah, were you able to look the detail on TNM just then?

Yeah and the interaction that's going on on TNM so and I think you're probably looking at one of the notes in the accounts around things that are a point in time as opposed to over time. Within TNM there will be pure TNM that you're referring to but there'll also be elements that are covered under our long-term service agreements that aren't within the scope of that. So there'll be some parts, for example, that end up being within that. Going forward, we see sort of T&M being, as we get to a more normalised level, it's still around about, from the civil aerospace perspective, think of it as around 20% of the business. When we're at the levels now and as we're going through that recovery, you can get some of the distortions that you're talking about.

Yeah. and the escalation clauses on OE and the timing. I think this is a variation on the very first question actually about the timing of us getting cash payments and escalation and the costs coming out later and it's It's the same answer. We've managed the contract, obviously it's good to be able to enforce escalation and then we have to manage the cost side of the equation and that's what we're doing and that's what we've described. And if we can tilt that balance so that the customer and the supplier piece is in our favor and we can do that in a win-win way with our suppliers, then that's good news and that's what we're setting out to do.

Okay, thank you very much.

Thanks.

Thank you, Harry. Now we're going to take our last question. And the last question comes from Zafar Khan from CTAC General. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. I've got a couple of clarification questions, please, and then one on costs. To start with the costs one, I noticed the commercial admin costs in the first half is up by about 15%. Half and half. Just wondered if there was someone off in there or it's just as business resumes and starts to take off, the cost inflation then comes in. And then the two clarifications, please. Just on the indexation, I imagine there must be a cap in terms of how much inflation can be charged in any year, and then there's kind of acts of God. And with inflation running at 9%, 10%, will you have to bear quite a bit of that increase yourselves? Because I imagine you'll have to share the pain with the customers. And then just a clarification on the cash and shop visits. I think in answer to David's question, Panos, you were saying that You expect a lot more shop visits, and therefore that should help the LTSA cash inflow. I'm getting confused here. I was under the impression that shop visits means you can recognize revenue, which is basically a P&L item. But, you know, if you're doing the work, then you're incurring cash costs. So more shop visits that you have, okay, it benefits the P&L, but it's negative. for cash flows. So just need a clarification on that, please.

Sure. Let me take, I can pick up all three of those. So I think you talked about the CNA growth around about 16%. There is an element that's effectively underlying growth of the businesses in fulfilling on the power system side, that sort of growth. And then as civil aerospace picks up, you have also, you're anniversarying a one-off too. So in last year's comparative, we have got a benefit of furlough for part of the period. So as we get into the full year, you should see a more normalized level of growth. In terms of indexation, I think there was a question earlier on similar sort of theme. It's not a cap, it's a collar. So up to a certain level, we can pass it on. Then there's a color of a couple, two or three percentage points that we can't pass on. And then beyond that, what's called effectively a hyperinflationary clause kicks in, which means we can pass on again. So there's not a ceiling on this. You're bound to have customer discussions around how that is going to be enforced and how it works. What's going to be important for us is we apply rigorous commercial discipline in having those discussions. The point I was making on your final question was, I think, because David was asking, how much is that LTSA creditor going to grow? And what causes it to grow is engine flying out, cash comes in, What causes it to shrink is shop visits happening because as the shop visit happens, it comes out of that and goes into revenue in the P&L. So when David was asking me how much is it going to grow by, engine flying hours cause it to go up, shop visits cause it to go down a bit. That's how I would rate. In terms of what that means from a cash perspective, if you think about it from a P&L perspective, the costs that go with the shop visit would similarly go into the P&L at the same time so you'd see the revenue and the cost to do with the shop visit going through the P&L that turns into operating profit from in terms of the start of your bridge from operating profit to free cash flow.

That's helpful, thank you very much.

And I'm being told there are no further questions. So just to quickly summarize, the message that we've been talking about this morning is one of good progress. And we measure good progress by growth in revenue, growth in orders, big swing round in cash. driven by a strong recovery coming through now in commercial aerospace, driven by continued strength and record orders in our power systems business and good visibility on defense. We've also talked a lot about the operational challenges that we're seeing just the same as everybody else and just the same as we've been talking about but we're doing a lot of blocking and tackling, we're doing a lot of anticipation and put a lot of long-term protection in to ensure both supply and protection against inflation and taken together that progress combined with the discipline, the operational discipline, commercial discipline, protecting us against those external pressures is what's enabling us to maintain our guidance and yesterday we announced completion of the conditions or complete the final approval, regulatory approval for the ITP transaction. And so we're delivering on that commitment of strengthening up the balance sheet and we'll be paying down that debt just as soon as we get the proceeds. So that's it. That's the summary of the message. And thank you all very much for joining us.