11/5/2024

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you everybody and a very warm welcome from our site. Today we would like to start off a little bit different than we do usually. So greetings from Pilsen. As announced at the beginning of October, we will open up a pharmacy and distribution center in the Czech Republic to be able to better serve our Austrian customers. An approach similar to what we have chosen in Italy. So what you can see here, is the picture of the official groundbreaking, I would call it. And you can see our COO and Chief Pharmacist Theresa Holler on the right-hand side, and also our partner CTP. What you can also see, of course, in reality, the construction of the building has started and is already advanced. If we now go to the agenda of today, like always, we start with the financial performance. And then we included an ERX update. And since we already gave in the live presentation at the beginning of October, we gave you a lot of details on Rx. We thought it makes sense this time to also show some October numbers, but we will talk about this later. And then at the end, like always, outlook and guidance. If we look into the financial performance, For the first nine months, you can see, I mean, our fast growth with record sales continues. It's a pretty easy message. I mean, our group sales are up 34% for the first nine months, reaching 1.7 billion. And even if you exclude Mediservice, you know, has been only consolidated since May 2023, the growth was still 23%. And also, if we look into the non-Rx growth, we are at 20% Phamacy Unsp-Adr Phamacy Unsp-Adr Looking into the EBITDA, we are really happy to report a 2% for Q3, 2.3% for year-to-date, and you know this happens on the basis that we have started our marketing campaign on Rx already in January of this year, and we kept the marketing up throughout the entire year. And you are aware of that, we have a full year guidance update on the 3rd of October, and this decision was really based on accelerated because of very convincing ERX metrics. If you look more into the detail, you see a picture which you are also very familiar with from previous quarters. I mean, strong growth overall, but international being a little bit stronger than the DACH region. DACH region is on 18.3% on non-RX, whereas international is on 25.7% on non-RX. DRX number of 79% for the DACH region. I mean, you know, that's a blended number. It has the German market and as well as Mediservice. And in the case of Mediservice also, again, only being consolidated since May 2023. But overall, great picture across the different segments. This slide, you already know from last time, so I do not really want to repeat a lot. Again, I mean, 81% in Q3, and we see this dynamic also in the acceleration. It's a 108% in September. And maybe I can use this slide also to expand a little bit how we report on Rx. Yeah, you know, there's because I mean, some of you also raised that question last time. You know, we have two segments on Rx. There's this Gigafow business, which is probably 90% of the overall business, and we have the Picafow business. The e-script only has been introduced for the GKV business so for the 90% and we have a share of course also of PKV business and this PKV business is because there is no e-script right now it's almost flat so what that means in turn whenever you look into a blended number like for example 108% here for our total Rx that means under the hood the ERX business so the GKV business has to have a strong growth, so you need to keep this in mind. It's already a great number, but under the hood, even stronger if you look into the ERX business, which is a GKV business only. If we go to the next slide, you can see we continue our growth, and it's also reflected in the number of new customers. We had 0.4 million active customers in the last quarter, reaching now almost 12 million active customers. At the same time, our NPS remains high and the basket value continues to grow. I mean, here we see the first impact of the Rx business, but again, also here, keep in mind, I mean, the majority of our business is still the non-Rx business, but anyway, we see some kind of impact on the basket. And if we now look into the next slide, you can see Very interesting news, at least we consider it that way. If you look into the pattern of the orders we receive throughout the year, you see that usually, at least since 2021, the Q3 is the weakest of the four quarters in terms of number of orders we receive. But this time we have turned it. So for the first time in Q3, the number of orders are higher. in the number of orders in Q2. So that's very positive and very good news. And at the same time, our repeat order rate stays at 88%, so confirms the quality of our active customer base. Having said this, I would like to hand over to Jasper.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Olaf, and also good morning from my side. So what did those orders bring to the financials? With pleasure, I refer to the interim report published on our website this morning with all the details and as always a customary high-level summary for this presentation from sales up to and including the adjusted EBDA and for full transparency sake for reference also the fully loaded EBDA at the bottom so here we get the sales growth 20.8% fully organic growth in quarter three that's the first line that you see here And for the first nine months of the year, we increased by 428 million or 33.8% to around 1.8 billion. And this 33.8%, if you stripe out the apple and orange, full consolidation of MAIDI service, and actually there is still remaining an organic growth of 23%. MonoRx being 20%, Phamacy Unsp-Adr Phamacy Unsp-Adr and year-to-date last year we had a 2.9% margin and this year year-to-date we stand at 2.3%. If you multiply the margin with significantly increased sales then our total adjusted EBDA in euros is 1 million higher at 38 million compared to the same nine months last year. And for reference the fully loaded EBDA which didn't increase by 1 million that's because the acquisition related adjustments phased out last year, so they are no longer in our numbers explaining the EBDA increase of 7 million more than the adjusted EBDA. Then two slides on the margins, basically both with the same message and the message is we are in control and we continue to focus on the details to improve while also grabbing the opportunity that we have in front of us, the overall European pharmacy opportunity, and particularly the ERX opportunity in Germany. So this is the gross profit margin for the total group. To the left side, One could say it's stable, but the slide 0.2% from Q2 to Q3 can be because of seasonality, etc. But of course, there's also impact from an increased share of Rx. But in the underlying base, you can also see a continued continuation of our purchasing improvements and of our platform model impacts. To the right side, the same number growth profit margin for the nine month The reported number in the middle two columns going down. Why? Because of the impact of Maidy's service. We will see the positive impact one slide later. The Apple and Apple is the two columns to the right. And there you see it's basically stable, same gross profit margin despite the very fast growth that we have been achieving. There is some impact of our X in the number, but at the same time, there's a lot of positive mixed impact from the countries and including, again, purchasing improvements and more other income, including from platform. So overall here, a gross profit margin, which is excluding mainly service around 28%, but the clear fully loaded number is above 23%. Then to the next slide, please. The cost performance. So here, basically the same to the left you see. Oh, one slide back, please. Yeah, thank you. No, cash is very important, but in a couple of seconds. Thank you. So the cost performance is around 21% of sales. You see that consistently an increase from Q2 to Q3. I think that is clear to everybody. There is some impact of our decision to accelerate in marketing and immediately I'm going to the full right here of the slide. So you see that our cost as percentage of sales slightly increased compared to last year. A lot of elements in there, two elements are Phamacy Unsp & Adr continue to focus on margin improvements while at the same time going after the unprecedented opportunity we are seeing. And then indeed Monica, we go to the cash on the next slide. We started the year with 204 million of cash. This is here defined as our cash balances and our short-term deposits that we're having. 204, then the cash we get from our positive operating result of around 37 million. 10 million positive impact from changes in working capital. Yes, we have a lot of focus on working capital, but also this is the benefit that we are still having the seasonality from the start of the year, which will be first in the fourth quarter as it is doing each year. Then we have our investments of a little bit below 30 million and then the financing, which is including, according to IFRS, also the cash that we are paying, for example, And with that, I hand back over to you.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. Thank you very much. So let's get into the ERX update session. And I think we summarized it right well in the title of this slide. I mean, we see really the momentum and we see a further acceleration of our momentum. And it's reflected in the fast increase in app downloads. to talk about this in a couple of seconds. And also very interesting to see we are turning the ERX business into an app business. Right now, already 90% of our e-scripts are being submitted by our app. And at the same time, we continue our growth. So we had, if you recorded, 81% in Q3, we had the 108% for September, and we are able to accelerate this to more than 130% in October. shows that the momentum is ongoing and it is accelerating strongly. And also, this is, of course, reflected in the market share gain. So we start at the beginning of the year at 0.27 and then increase it over the different quarters. And in October, we are at 0.66% market share, which is actually a strong, strong gain from the beginning of the year. So overall, we think we are in a full position for this once in a lifetime opportunity on ERX. Let's look a little bit more into the details of this whole thing. So here you can see the EF downloads and we decided to also introduce this into the presentation because a lot of you guys are covering it anyway, so we can give a little bit of flavor to this one. And I think it's interesting to see Phamacy Unsp & Adr Maybe one or two words on that. I mean, this is not completely comparable to, let's say, existing businesses or existing use cases or customer journeys. Because, I mean, for example, if you think about a messenger and there comes a new messenger which has some additional features, then it's easy to generate tons of downloads at relatively low cost. But what we have to do here, and we discussed this last time in our meeting in the beginning of October, we first have to really generate the awareness on this topic. It's a new customer journey, has never been out there. Rx has never been fully digital. So that's the reason why we are investing into a high profile and broad marketing campaign at the beginning. And then because of that, we are really happy about those high number of downloads showing that we have at least chosen the right way to do the education and then now try to convert that into business via downloads of app. It also shows this company is strong in marketing. It's strong in online marketing, brand building, especially in the area of online pharmacy. If we go into the next slide, it's very interesting to see in here we talk about the 90%. But if you look into this, what happened since April? I mean, April of this year. Prior to CardLink, most of the customers were sending their scripts via mail. So you see that's gray shaded. And mail in this case really means they placed their script in an envelope. Either the traditional paper script, because at the beginning of the year we did not have only e-scripts in the market, but they also, because they did not know what to do, they also placed the QR code in an envelope and then sent it in to us. and some of them already used the QR code to scan it in via the different devices we have. So app, desktop, all those kinds of things, but the majority came in via analog. And now only a couple of months later into the game, you can see, I mean, that almost 90% are using this app and it continues to grow. And what does this mean? Of course, I mean, it has a lot of advantages. If we start with our customers first, I mean, This is the one-stop pharmacy at your fingertip. We all know how we use the smartphones. They are always around. Now you have this one-stop pharmacy right in your hand and together with a fully digital journey. Already today, especially when we talk about chronic legal patients, a lot of patients don't go to the doctor any longer. The doctor is issuing the repeat script so they even don't have to see the doctor. Or if they have to see the doctor, then at least They don't have a paper script which they have to handle. It's a fully digital journey. And I mean, they can use this app and in this fully digital journey, they also have all the other advantages. Like we mentioned last time, it's the 24-7, it's the availability check. It is the ability to simply add OTC to the basket and to do the payment. So of course, as we all know, I mean, that is fully digital and that's a lot of convenience and fun from a customer perspective. Phamacy Unsp-Adr after installment, if you compare that to, let's say, a desktop business or even the former paper script business. So in the initial results, we showed that last time when we talked about the repeat order rate, so returning customers being significantly higher than in the past, shows that we are on the right track here. So it looks like the app helps, the product which we have built helps to really also be able to reduce marketing cost after the installment. And of course, another advantage, but it goes hand in hand, is you can develop this product very agile. I mean, you still have to build additional microservice if you want to add features to the product. But then once you have developed them, it's easy to launch because it's an app only. It's not different browsers, different devices. All those kind of stuff does not exist. It's really, I mean, you can develop the microservice, you can develop the product features, and then simply launch them into the market. So overall, that's a very good development we see by moving this business towards app business. If we go to the next slide, here we now, we do not talk about the 108% of September. Any longer now, we see it's already more than 130% what we have achieved in October. And I think there's not really anything we need to add to that number. It's a dynamic acceleration of our sales growth. Maybe just one thing. Keep in mind, under the hood, as I explained earlier, under the hood is even significantly stronger than this number you can see here because of the BK4 business. So overall, it's a confirmation of the approach we have chosen on RX. If you go to the next slide, you can see this, of course, is also reflected in our market share. The market share we showed last time was 0.55%. Now it has moved to 0.66%. Phamacy Unsp & Adr Phamacy Unsp And if you take it one level up and look into the overall company, I mean, it took us many years in the non-Norex business in Germany to get to that kind of a sales level. And now within only a couple of months, we are moving the whole thing into a direction like this. That is just great. And we are building the fully fledged pharmacy, which has non-Norex as well as Rx and overall is significantly growing. And at the same time, by doing so, we become a more and more relevant player, of course, also in the supply of medicines in the German market. So especially when you think about the brick and mortar pharmacies, shrinking number of brick and mortar pharmacies, we are a valuable addition to what happens on the brick and mortar. If we go to the next slide, I mean, it's almost just like a reminder saying, hey, 1% market share equals more than 500 million in sales. I think that's a strong message. And having said that, I would like to hand this over to Jasper. Thank you, Olaf.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

And yeah, it's actually, if we can go immediately to the next slide, please. A quite easy job here because our guidance remains the same. But still, I think the numbers itself serve the attention. So I will repeat the full guidance as we shared with you on October the 3rd already. So at the moment, we expect that the sales of our company Phamacy Unsp & Adr has also continued to grow beyond 20% this year, and we increased our guidance to growing between 20% and 25% fully organically there. Also, Mediservice we expect to grow this year between the single digits towards the mid-single digit, probably a little bit below that number, but also growth over there. and he adjusted QBDA for the full year between 1.2 and 2.2. The Rx, I think we shared with you a lot of details there, so we know where the floor is and what the current momentum is, but to give exact numbers on our expectations there, we don't know it ourselves, and we look into 2025 and 2026, et cetera. So we don't have specific guidance to Rx, but you know how we started the fourth quarter. that we are going to achieve this guidance in all its elements for the current year 2024. And with that, let's see if there are any questions, please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star then two. participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. The first question is from Christopher Yonen, HSBC. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Christopher Yonen
Analyst, HSBC

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First on the RX basket, is there any color you can give? Maybe, you know, how sort of many mats you have per order at the moment, any color on AOV? And if you can't be specific, I would at least prefer or kind of like you to give a bit of color on how they've developed versus your initial expectations. Because it's always good to have expectations going into this sort of quite significant regulatory change. But yeah, I'm just curious how that has developed. Thank you.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think so, Christopher. And yeah, specifically because of your second part of the question, I can't give a clear answer. Because the first one, what is exactly But I refer also to when we had on October the 4th, when we updated our guidance. One of the reasons why we are happy with the developments is that actually we have the confirmation and we had several hypothesis also internally that we are having at the moment. And that means that there's more than one item on average in the basket, because otherwise you don't get to that number. So that's all the color I want to give. So you said, is it up to your expectations? Yes, actually, it is spot on what we were hoping for.

speaker
Christopher Yonen
Analyst, HSBC

Nice base.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Maybe in addition to that, it's a nice base, as you said.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

So we are happy. But you know, one of the components is the mixed basket. So the question is always, I mean, how much OTC do they put on top of the different RX items into the basket? And that is a number we will continue to work on. We are happy with the number we have. It's right on, as Jasper said, but there is always a number you can improve. So of course, but the overall answer is exactly on what we expected.

speaker
Christopher Yonen
Analyst, HSBC

Perfect. And then my second question, please. On the international market, I sometimes find it a little bit difficult to stay up to speed on where we stand with respect to certain legislative changes, your own market share and some of the key markets. Is there anything that you would like to point out as far as the international segment is concerned, anything that we should be aware of? Thank you.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

I mean, if the question is related to, let's say, legislative changes or things Business Model Relevance of No is nothing we would like to point out. Of course, you know, the international is we are in different countries and some of them are growing stronger than others. And that is what you can also see if you look, for example, into web traffic or things like this. But that's probably the only thing. Some of the countries really successful and others we have to work a little bit harder. But overall, nothing really to report on.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

So that's the relation in the end. And then Chris, so we know already, because we have commented on it several times, that we as a company are the clear market leader in Belgium and also, for example, in Austria. And we don't publish any details there, but there have been a lot of publications throughout 2024 already from external parties indicating that it seems like we have also So that's the sort of news that we have at the moment. We don't give any details on it, but I'm happy to refer to those reports where actually we had a celebration when we saw those lists.

speaker
Christopher Yonen
Analyst, HSBC

Thank you. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Jan Koch
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question from Jan Koch, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Jan Koch
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first one is on your non-Rx guidance. The midpoint of that guidance implies a meaningful acceleration of OTC growth in Q4 compared to the first nine months. Could you share with us what makes you confident to achieve this growth and also confirm whether the majority of this acceleration is expected to happen in your German OTC business? Then secondly, obviously quite impressive growth acceleration in your German Rx business. But have you seen any kind of negative impact from the holiday season in Germany in October? And then lastly, on the order behavior of your customers. How many of your customers that use the CardLink solution and order OTC products as well use only your app? Or to phrase it differently, are there many customers that use the CardLink solution but order OTC still online through your website?

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Nona Rix, your first question. Year to date we stand at 20. Indeed, we feel at the moment that it is more likely that we will enter above the 20, and that's why we updated our guidance range to the positive. That would indeed mathematically mean that Q4 is going to be stronger. We still have Black Friday on November, December, and we don't know, but that's our best estimate at the moment. And one of the reasons is the strength marketing we do in RX in Germany, we have the idea that that is also leading to some additional benefits in non-RX being more present with the brand. Then the German RX business and holiday impact, would you like to comment on that?

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, maybe I can give some flavor to that. Yes, I mean, we showed you for the summer that there was a little bit of a decline in the growth. Phamacy Unsp&Adr Phamacy Unsp & Adr The third one is a difficult one. I mean, I think we are not in the position to really give a good answer to that now. What we see is that the push of the app on Rx also has an impact on our, let's say, OTC customers. So the share of customers using the app also for OTC only is increasing. That is what we can see. But to answer your specific question, if customers who use the app for ERX are still using the desktop for OTC on that one, we cannot give an answer. Overall, there's a strong push and movement also in the OTC into an app only. I think that's fair to say, right?

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Absolutely. What would say from a customer perspective, it makes sense to combine with the free delivery that you have. Yeah, yeah.

speaker
Jan Koch
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

OK, great, very helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question is from Olivier Calve UBS. Please go ahead, Sir.

speaker
Olivier Calve
Analyst, UBS

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one would be, you know, kind of on regulation. We've seen some news flow around the potential ruling by the ECG. I was just wondering if you could give us a sense of your expectation, maybe in terms of the timing of any regulatory changes, if the European Court of Justice were to rule in favor of Rx incentives. That would be the first question. Second question, just in terms of looking at the remainder of the year in German Rx, the implied guidance is very wide. You only have two months to go. I was just wondering if you could narrow down the levels you expect for German Rx in the next two months. You've done around 26 million and 31 million in the last two months. Do you see Q4 closer to three times the October number, or should we assume a 20% month-over-month growth rate, which you did in October? Is that too low? If you had any sense of, I mean, I know it's precise, Perhaps you have a qualitative answer to that. And then maybe, I mean, something I guess no one really usually asks this, but just seeing as you're a good balance sheet manager, Jasper, your convertible bond is, I believe, quotable in January 2026. I was just wondering if it would be fair to assume you look to replace that with another convertible bond. And I just wanted to, you know, if you happen to have on the top of your mind the conversion price, I mean, I have it somewhere, but I just remember, you know, there's again a capital increase last year. So I don't know if there's an update to that number as well.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

So maybe I start with the first question, which I actually like a lot, I have to say.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

So for those of you who are not so familiar with that one,

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

So this is a DocMorris case in front of the ECJ and it's about the bonus but not, I mean you know there has been a 2016 case on the bonus where the European Court of Justice clearly said we are allowed to give a bonus and this is a follow-up case asking the question are we allowed to advertise that bonus. So that is the case in front of the ECJ and the way the ECJ works, I mean there's an oral hearing and all this kind of stuff and then at one point in time the Advocate General gives a recommendation. And that is what has happened a couple of weeks ago. And I mean, as probably the most of us would have expected, the Advocate General gave a recommendation. Yes, I mean, you are allowed to give a bonus, so you are also allowed to advertise this bonus on a pharmacy level. Let's put it this way. And the next step usually after this the recommendation of the Advocate General is in the ruling of the court so the ruling of the court this this is an independent court so this of course takes into consideration the recommendation of the Advocate General and there are some numbers out there like in 80 percent of the cases the court follows the recommendation but doesn't mean anything because you could also be on the other side on the 20 percent usually if I have it right in my mind I mean I think the is four months, maybe something like this, after the Advocate General gave the recommendation. So if that holds true, I don't know the details right now at the European Court of Justice. We could probably expect a ruling, a final ruling at the beginning of next year. And again, the outcome, we don't know. It's up to the court. And once we have a decision from the court, then of course, we will also see how we how we will react to this one. But as of now, it's only a recommendation from the Advocate General. Second question, yes, Tom?

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Olivier. In your question you talked about implicit guidance on our aches, but actually we explicitly say all the time we don't have guidance on our aches. So the medical calculation, it's just we didn't intend at the start of the year and not now to give any guidance there. But I think with where we stand now, with over 100% in September, over 100% in October, that's putting a nice floor, I would say, on the expectations for quarter four. And I think that's then the best estimate for the quarter to come. I hope that that's helpful, because to me that would be, yeah, then actually relatively clear what the magnitude is of expectations. Everything else remaining the same in the fourth quarter. Very good question on the convertible. Very relevant also that you ask the question. The bond is due in 2028 at a conversion price which had a premium of 50% of 233 euros. But indeed there is an option at the start of 2026 and of course we care We want to create most value for our stake and shareholders. And on the other hand, we want to have the liquidity and stability to ensure that we can successfully execute our strategy. But at this moment, that goes beyond today's meeting. And when there is something to share which is relevant, then we will share it with the markets. Your question was, does that mean that you will replace it with a new, affordable bond? That's one of the many options that are at the moment to manage our balance sheet. As also just disclosed, we have around 200 million also on our balance sheet at the moment. But when the time is there, we will take you, please.

speaker
Olivier Calve
Analyst, UBS

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for questions, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question from Miro to Zach, JMS Invest. Please go ahead.

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

Yes, thank you for taking that question. Can you hear me? Yes, yes. I have a couple of questions. The first one would be regarding the growth margin in the DACH region. It has been 22.7 percentage points, a bit down from Q2 and Q1. Can you please just explain again the mix effect? I mean, I understand, you know, from Mediservice, there has been a dilution, of course, but in Q3, I think that was already a clean quarter, so to speak. Now there is a mix effect between RX and OTC. RX has obviously a lower margin, Can you please explain how this will basically impact your growth margins in the DAS region going forward?

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Can you only remind me what decline you are referring to exactly? Because there is on the nine month we showed a decline here and then that is mainly because of the full year impact this year of maybe service while last year that was as of mid-May consolidated. That's after nine months, and in Q3, actually compared to Q2, there's only a difference of 0.2%.

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

I'm just referring to the 106.5% that was your gross margin in the dark region in Q3. That's 22.7% of your dark region sales. And this number has been 23.1% in Q2. Now it went down. It was slightly up by 0.1% versus last year.

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that I understand. Yeah, so it's coming from the interim report, not from the presentation. But thanks for the question. Now, there is some impact there. First of all, there's always this identity between the quarters, but that's not the explanation here. a good amount of euros gross profit margin because of the high value of an rx the percentual margin is lower than our average margin so what you will see when we sell more rx in Germany that's what you're pointing towards and then our gross margin as a percentage of sales will be lower that's what you're seeing at the same time our cost percentage of sales excluding marketing will be lower too because we leverage the costs with a very high

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

average order and average product value so and those two offset and and will you say going forward that the margin there is it will remain on a stable let's say 23-ish percent or will this move significantly in either direction

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, the expectation is that that one will go down considerably with ARIX at the same time. The S&D will go down significantly with ARIX. Okay, thank you. Apart from this mixed impact, the structural change that we see in our gross profit margin apart from that one, Phamacy Unsp & Adr

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

Okay, thank you. Then the second question would be regarding your KPIs that you report, you know, like the number of orders and the cost cut and so on. Are these numbers including all your businesses, so including Mediservice, or is this just for the DACH region, basically your classical German business?

speaker
Jasper Allerkamp
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, very good. So the KPIs, they need to make sense. So we include all our business, but in this case on the KPI of the average basket value, we also make clear that maybe service excluded there because maybe service is really having high average order values and that would totally skew the picture. So if we include mainly service, our basket would be much higher on average than the one that we disclose here. So on the average basket value, all our business excluding maybe service.

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

Okay, cool. Then you mentioned in the presentation that the 108% growth rate at the end of Q3 or the 130 you basically mentioned for October was actually basically understated, but they are a bit understated because of the GECA, I think you mentioned. Could you please repeat that for me? I didn't get it. I think I didn't understand it. Could you please just repeat it again for me?

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, of course, we would love to do so. You know, we have this GKV business in Germany and PKV. Those are the two different ways to be insured. So, in the GKV business, which is the statutory health insurance, I mean, 90% of the Germans are covered that way and 10% This is how the market works. And the e-script has only been introduced so far for the GKV business, which is the 90% of the business. And with this e-script, we are able to generate a lot of growth, whereas on this GKV, so the privately insured business, the 10% share in the market, the e-script hasn't been introduced. So that means We don't have a huge growth rate on that one. And since we as RedCare also have a share of the business is privately insured, as we don't show that share of the business, but we have a share of that business. And as you can imagine, no e-script for that share of the business. So not really a lot of growth on that part. And then that means on the business, which is the 90%, we have a growth rate. And if you combine those two, then you get to the blended more than 130% for October. And if you assume the privately insured business being almost flat, then the other one has to be higher to come to a blended number like that. And that is what I was trying to explain, say, under the hood in the e-script business, because only We are already stronger than what we show as the blended number.

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

Okay, I got it. Thank you. And this is fair to assume that with you, it's like with your close competitor, that the private business was after you had to stop with the official bonus. The RX business went down after this decline. like one-third or so of your Rx business was private? Is that fair to assume, roughly the same share as with your famous previous employer?

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

That's a good question. I think, Jasper, we will not give any details. There's nothing to hide. We don't talk that language. Maybe it's fair to say that if the market, let's say the market has a distribution 90-10, that probably our picker farm was a little bit more than the market. Let's put it this way. So it was more than a 10%. But that's really the only number we want to give. And then you can use that in your calculation model, try to figure out a starting point and then see how it develops over time to get to the eScript growth number. But I mean, we don't want to do that because then next time, The privately insured business will get an e-script and so and then we always have the discussion of cherry picking. So that's why we decided to only have one number for RX, even with the downside that we are not showing the strongest number available.

speaker
Miro Zach
Analyst, JMS Invest

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Henry for any closing remarks. Thank you.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, again, I mean, it has been a great session. I mean, now we had October and then November, but I think the next time now only is in March, Jasper, or what? Yeah, the training updates in January. Yeah, the training updates in January, but we see you only next time in March, then with the, where we have, I think we will have more knowledge gathered throughout this year, also how on the mechanics,

speaker
Jan Koch
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Phamacy Unsp and that will also be then represented in the guidance we give then in March.

speaker
Olaf
Chief Executive Officer

So we are really looking forward, first of all, until the end of the year because it's a great year. It's really a lot of fun seeing the numbers in the morning. And then, of course, then being back with you guys at the beginning of March presenting the annual numbers and also the guidance looking into the next year. So thank you very much for joining this session today.

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