Snam Spa

Good morning. This is the Course Call Conference Operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the SNAM First Quarter 2024 Consolidated Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Francesca Pezzoli, Head of Investor Relations of SNAM. Please go ahead, madam.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to SNAM Q1 2024 Consolidated Results. Today's presentation will be hosted by our CEO, Stefano Venier, and by our CFO, Luca Passa. In the presentation, Stefano will provide you an overview of the key highlights of the period. Luca will walk you through the financial performance. Then back to Stefano for closing remarks and finally the Q&A session. And now I will hand over to Stefano.

Good morning. Let me go through key highlights on page two. First quarter posted a strong performance with adjusted EBDA at $703 million. up 18% year-on-year, mainly thanks to the weighted average cost of capital uplift, the Ross effect, the RAB growth, and the output-based incentives. Adjusted income at 335 is up 11% year-on-year, while investments reached 462 million, up 48% versus Q1 2023. and the debt at 15.8 billion with 2.4% average net cost of debt. Gas demand declined by 2.6%. This, along with the well-supplied market and high gas storage level in Europe, contributed to keep average gas prices 50% below the same period of last year. In April, gas prices experienced some volatility due to the colder weather conditions and the continuous geopolitical tensions. As known, the annual weighted average cost of capital update triggered an uplift of 80 BPS on transport and 60 basis points on storage and LNG applied from January 24. The base ROS was applied to transport from 2024 with positive effect on fast low money accounting. We have been contributed to the working groups set by the Italian Ministry of Energy and Environment, which has the target to release the H2 strategy by the summer along with the National Energy Plan and to define the CCS framework by the autumn. The European Commission announced recently the results of the EU hydrogen bank auctions, awarding more than 700 million, corresponding to 90% of the total available subsidy pool to several renewable hydrogen production projects across different areas and sectors. Moving to our associates, we continue with our active portfolio management. As you know, we have exercised the preemption right to increase from 7.3% to 30% our stake in Adriatic LNG Regas unit terminal, following the signing by VTTI of the agreement to acquire a majority stake in the company. The closing of the transaction is expected by the year end. The deal will further strengthen our asset platform in the LNG sector up to 20 BCM. Moreover, we are in the exclusive negotiation until June with Edison for a potential acquisition of Edison Stock Agile. At the same time, our strategy is to extract value from existing portfolio and we are actively engaging with the Austrian regulator for the 2025-2027 tariff review. The new reference price methodology is under consultation and we expect the final determination by the end of May. It will provide volume risk of sterilization and increase in the visibility of the next three-year regulatory period. Turning to page three, we are progressing on our strategy to become a pan-European multi-molecular operator, leveraging on synergies between gas infrastructure and energy transition businesses. Becoming a pan-European multi-molecular operator, leveraging on synergies between gas infrastructure and energy transition businesses. Starting from gas infrastructure. First, the works for the first phase of the Adriatic corridor, the backbone to strengthen the south to north capacity, just started. And we are progressing with the works with the Aravena FSRU terminal. To the latter, the onshore segment is 70% complete, while the offshore part is at 30% and the platform construction started in these days. The storage level reached 60% at the end of the winter, well above the historical levels for this period of the year. It was also supported by 3 BCM of commercial reverse flow service that we delivered to the system. and it will be helped keeping under control grass prices volatility and making the infilling season smoother. Finally, 100% of the 12.4 BCM of storage capacity for the 2024-2025 thermal year was allocated, of which 6.4 BCM during auction in April. Let's now move into energy transition. The two projects, South H2 Corridor and the Callisto Mediterranean CCS in Ravenna, in which we are involved as a partner, as you know, have both been confirmed by the European Commission in the sixth list of projects of common interest. The market sound we launched to assess the artobade industry's appetite was completed with large participation with more than 150 companies responding to the questionnaire, And the pilot phase of the Ravenna CCS project is on track. The injection phase will start by summer. With respect to Renovit backlog, it is stable at 1.2 billion, while on biomethane, eight plants won tariff option, corresponding to 18 megawatts, of which two are already under upgrade construction to biomethane. Finally, moving to sustainability and governance, capex aligned to EU taxonomy and SDGs represent respectively 34% and 55% of the total in Q1 2024. Following an extensive engagement with the shareholder ad of the AGM, we have further improved the average approval rate at approximately 99% vis-a-vis the 97% of last year. According to the most recent A recent shareholder analysis carried out, ESG investors represent about 50% of our institutional investors base, well above sector and Italian average. Finally, net zero assessment assigned by Moody's to our emission targets confirm a trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement. On page four, you have a summary on gas demand and flows. In Q1 2024, demand was about 20 BCM, down 2.6% or 0.5 BCM vis-à-vis Q1 2023. In detail, the thermoelectric sector was down 4.8% year-on-year, driven by higher hydroelectric and renewable production, increasing net electricity imports due to larger availability of nuclear in France, that was partly offset by a lower utilization of coal and electricity demand increase. TVL sector contracted by around 0.2 BCM due to milder temperature, especially in March, and the impact of the energy efficiency. Whilst industrial sector was up 1.8%, and we expect further growth due to the gas price projections for the next month. Moving to the gas flows, energy import made about 20% of the total demand, also thanks to the operations of the Piombino plant from July 2023. Now I will turn to Luca for the financial results.

Thank you. Good morning to everyone. Thanks, Stefano. We are now on slide number five to comment on first quarter 2024 EBDA. EBDA for the period was 703 million euros plus 18% versus last year or 106 million euros. The growth is mainly attributable to regulatory items for a total of around 58 million related to the work increase for 42 million euros and to the gross effect on transport for 16 million euros. Regulated revenues change was driven by transport and storage revenues increased by around €50 million, output-based rise by €15 million related to the contribution of output-based on fully depreciated assets that in 2023 were recognized starting from the second quarter, the contribution from storage reverse growth services, partially counterbalanced by the decrease of output-based related to the default services. a positive volume effect counterbalanced by the expected phase-out of input-based incentives. P&B and FSRU started operations from July 2023 and contributed positively by €60 million in the first quarter of 2024. The increase in regulatory fee costs is attributable to labor costs in large part due to the extension of the employees' health insurance and labor inflation. With regards to the energy transition businesses, the end of the super eco bonus incentive on energy efficiency, along with the consolidation of eight megawatts of biomethane plants, drove to a net contribution in the first quarter of 2024. Moving to slide six, adjusted net income for the period was 335 million euros plus 11% compared to the first quarter of 2023. Due to higher DNA by 28 million euros following rising investment and 12 million euros write-down on gas infrastructure, net financial expenses higher by 36 million euros mainly as a result of higher net cost of debt, which moved from 1.5% in the first quarter of 2023 to approximately 2.4% in the first quarter of 2024 as a fact of the increase in interest rate. A substantially flat contribution from associates, which was the result of higher contribution of Italian associates for 3 million euros and lower international associates contribution for 2 million euros. Slightly higher taxes with a tax rate of 24.8% versus 24.5% in the first quarter 2023. Moving to slide seven. Our international associates positively contributed to group net income by 52 million euros or down 4% vis-a-vis last year. CAP inflation adjusted tariffs drove higher contribution compared to last year in the first quarter of 2024. TAP covered 17% of Italian imports, recording a plus 3% increase in the short-term bookings on top of the long-term capacity. Works for the 1.2 BCM expansion deriving from the 2021 market test are underway. EMG performance benefited mostly from the recording of positive non-recurring items related to previous years. Moving to Austria, the decline of TAG reflects lower imports to Italy and consequently lower bookings vis-a-vis first quarter 2023. partially offset by more favorable product mix towards short-term bookings, mainly in March, that contributed 6 million above expectation in the quarter. On the other end, GCA performance in the first quarter benefits from lower energy costs due to the price effect. On Terrega, performance already reflects the new regulatory period starting in 2024 in line with our expectations. The decline versus the first quarter of 2023 is due to higher operating costs, which, however, we expect to partially be absorbed over the year. AdNOC performance is substantially in line with expectation. Looking at Interconnector UK, the operating performance remains strong with a contribution in line with the yearly regulatory cap. The capacity is booked at almost 50% until 2026, providing medium-term visibility. Moving to C Corridor, after the drop of Russian imports, it represents the first Italian import route with approximately 5 BCM in entry out of 15 of total Italian imports in the first quarter of 2024. Performance, however, is slightly lower, mainly due to the lower volumes reflecting the decline in demand. Tesfa's lower contribution is the result of lower auction premium on LNG imports and exports towards Bulgaria, now closer to historical trends. Nonetheless, Greek gas demand is increasing amidst the ongoing lead-night phase-out and the recovery of the industrial production and power generation. That's why it's progressing also on its ambitious 1.3 billion capex plan that will support the southeastern Europe market development. Turning now to cash flow on slide number eight. Funds from operation for the period amounting to around 538 million euros were partially absorbed by 119 of working capital. This was driven by a broadly neutral impact from regulatory working capital with about 550 million absorption due to the balancing activity of which 250 million related to a reduction in balancing item payables. about $200 million related to the cash deposit decrease due to the gas price reduction, and about $100 million related to the default service net increase. All of this partially counterbalanced by $470 million of tariff-related items, mainly driven by additional tariff components. And finally, $100 million of energy efficiency net working capital absorption driven by the fiscal credits related to the super-equibonus revenues. Net investment for the period amount to 531 million euros and breakdown as follows. 462 million of capex, around 90 million of capex payables decrease, and about 20 million of other items. Other outflows were related to the payment of the interim dividend for 376 million euros, resulting in a change in net debt of about 523 million euros. Moving to slide number nine, net debt amounted to 15.8 billion euros. Net cost of debt, which is calculated as a financial charges net of liquidity incomes on average net debt for the period, went from 1.5% in the first quarter of 2023 to 2.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and the fixed floating mix is above 70%. Funding for the year is almost completed, leaving the remaining part of the year for opportunistic 2025 pre-funding activities. To date, we executed 450 million of bank financing, which is sustainability-linked, 1.5 billion of bonds in February via a green bond, the first ever green bond issued by SNAM, and a sustainability-linked bond linked to the Scope 1 and 2, and for the first time, also Scope 3. In addition, leveraging a supporting market environment, in April, we issued a two-year, $750 million floating rate bond for our treasury management optimization. The sustainable finance ratio is at 84%, well on track to reach our long-term target. Also, we're proud to have recently received, for the second year, the Transition Bond Award of the Year by Environmental Finance for our EU taxonomy-aligned transition bond exchangeable in Italgas share that we issued in September 2023. Moving to slide 10. on our guidance thanks to our strong first quarter performance which was ahead of expectation we can upgrade our full year guidance provided the strategic plan presentation on 25th of january and in 2024 we expect capex will reach 3 billion slightly ahead of the 2.9 million guidance mainly due to the realization of the breakwater in ravenna The year-on-year increase is driven by gas infrastructure investments, which includes, among others, the start of a direct decline and moving and connection investment for the second new FSRU in Ravenna. Tariff RAB is up around 6% year-on-year at 23.8 billion euros. We expected BDA in excess of 2 billion 750 million euros. versus the previous guidance of 2.7 billion, mainly thanks to stronger contribution of output-based incentives, the year-on-year growth is driven by the WACAP lift and the deflator impact, Ross effect on transport, and RAP growth. Adjusted net income guidance moves to approximately 1,230,000,000 euros from the previous 1,180,000,000 euros, up 5% year-on-year. The upgrade is due to better EBITDA performance, coupled with lower financial charges and higher contribution from our international associates. Net debt at 17.5 billion euros expected versus the 17.6 despite the increase of CAPEX, thanks to a better expected cash conversion at 80%. It includes about 400 million of working capital absorption expected and the cash out for the increase of the stake increase in Adriatic LNG. The dividend policy going forward envisage minimum 3% dividend annual growth. And now, let me hand over to Stefano for the closing remarks.

Thank you. Thank you, Luca. Let me say, in conclusion, we have had another year in which we will deliver strong results. The good Q1 led us to upgrade of our full year guideline on all lines. That implies one year add on 2027 plan delivery. This is supported by high visibility over regulation and investments, a macro environment which is stabilizing and policies evolving in line with our strategy. Therefore, we can offer to shareholders an attractive growth profile coupled with a compelling dividend while keeping a solid balance sheet and financial flexibility. So then thank you very much for your attention and now we are available to take all your questions.

This is the course call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Javier Suarez of Mediobanca.

Good morning and thank you for the presentation. Several questions. The first one is on the guidance increase. It has been explained by better than expected output-based incentives. on the storage business. So can you share with us how are you moving your expectation for the collection of these output-based incentives by the year end, which has been the collection during the first quarter of the year and the underlying reason behind for this better performance during the first quarter? That would be the first question. The second question is on the international associate. There has been certainly better than expected performance, I guess, versus the company's previous expectation. If you can help us to understand the moving pieces, which is the associate that has surprised the most during the first quarter, and what we may expect in terms of contribution from this associate by the year end. And I'm particularly interested on you can share with us your expectations for the regulatory review in Austria that you have announced that should be unveiled by the end of May. Any detail on your expectation on that important regulatory review could be welcome. And the final thought is on the on the first implementation of the new ROV framework, you can help us to understand the positive impact during the first quarter, giving a little bit more granularity and your expectation by the end of the year. Many thanks.

Okay, I'll start with the first about the output-based services. I mean, the major contribution, as you pointed out, came from the output based on storage services. And that was, of course, driven by the, let's say, good appetite the market showed for the reverse flow services and the flexibility we provide in the first quarter. So to that extent, we were ahead on our expectations, and we will drive this benefit to the end of the year. Of course, with respect to last year, we will have a lower contribution from the default services because, of course, this kind of service has squeezed over the year. Globally speaking, as we said, we expect to have a contribution in the region of 80-90 million euros on full year. Now I turn to Luca for the International Associates.

Okay, thanks Stefano. When it comes to international associates, I mean the first quarter performance, as I commented, it was a mix of better performance, I would say, across the board. And what we expect for the full year in terms of, you know, overall contribution of our associate portfolios in the region of $260 million in total, which a flat performance for our national associates, i.e., the domestic associates, for about $90 million, which is in line with last year, while for our international activities, we expect a contribution in the region of $170 million And here, I would say the positive surprise is mainly driven by the performance of Terrega on the full year. We expect basically a similar contribution from Terrega vis-à-vis last year, also taking into account the new regulatory period which started at the beginning of this year. When it comes to the regulatory review in Austria, as you know, we are currently waiting for the final decree from the regulator. What we can say there is that what has been already released for consultation regarding post-compensation for the two companies, TAG and GCA, is more or less in line with our expectation and I would say about to be in line with our assumption in the business plan you know that this effect will happen starting from 2025 and onwards also from next year for the period up until 2027 but until the final consultation is out we cannot you know further comment in this respect but I would say more or less in line with our expectation in the business plan And then finally, when it comes to the Roth effect, as I commented, the impact for the first quarter was $16 million. The expectation of the overall impact for the full year is in the region of $70 million in total. And clearly, this is based on our assumption when it comes to the percentages between, you know, slow money and fast money.

The next question, sir, is from Stefano Gambarini of Equita Sim.

Yes, thanks for taking my question. First, regarding the flater, the trend is weaker than expected, and it was around less 0.7%. For the full year 2023, I'm really speaking about the gross fixed capital expenditure deflator versus the 1.6% that was included in the deflator defined for 2024 at 5.9% by the regulator. So we are speaking of a difference that should be in the region of 600 business points in 2023 on top of the around 350 business points of difference towards the CPI in 2022. So do you think that the regulator can make some adjustment on the rub deflator mechanism or how you can recover this difference? The second question regarding the trend of fixed costs during the first quarter. If I'm not wrong, your regulator revenues increased in the region of 20% to 22% in the same period, in this period, and why such significant growth there? And finally, if you can repeat, please, the outcome that you expect in Austria, what could be the results from TAG and GC from 2026 onwards? Thank you.

With respect to the deflator, I mean, We raised the point along with the other DSOs and TSOs to the authority. I think there will be a sort of discussion on this theme in the forthcoming months. We also have to take into consideration that There will be a review again by the National Institution for Statistics on the deflator mechanism in the forthcoming September. So by the end of the year, we will have much more clarity on the mechanism for the setting of the deflator going forward and backward. And second, it's going to be the position of the ARERA with respect to let's say, possible adjustments on the mechanism of the deflator so to have more alignment with the inflation, the CPI index. So I think there will be a discussion on this theme that is so important. With respect to the implications of the adjustment that happened in Q4 last year on 2024, I mean, with the fact that we increase our guidance means implicitly that we will offset entirely the reduction with respect to the former expectation we had for the year. Now I turn to Luca on the operating costs. Yes, Stefano. I'll take back the Austrian.

Okay. On operating costs, I mean, I commented the $6 million on labor costs, which was driven by the health insurance as well as labor inflation. There is another $6 million which I netted with the contribution of the Piombino FSRU. Basically, their revenues were 22. We posted a 16 million EBDA contribution, which means that we had 6 million in cost. So the differential in terms of cost in total is 12. Six is the part of labor and six is the cost of the FSRU. And when it comes to the target or the expected outcome in Austria, I'll hand over to Stefano.

Yes, as we said, I think the discussion that took place in the last month was primarily focused on introducing a new mechanism for the tariff regulation that means implicitly the, let's say, sterilization of the volume cyclicality. So we will be, from 2025, fully protected from that. let's say, volume change with respect to the allowed revenues. That, I think, is a core milestone in the Austrian mechanism. And with respect to what we could expect from the new tariff scheme for the next three years, as Luca said, is going to be in line with our expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027. That means... we will recover from the outcome of the last two years to have a positive net income in those operations.

Thank you. Just a quick follow-up. Have I understood correctly that as regards the tariff rub for 2024 tariffs, you confirmed that you applied this 5.9% because you didn't change your reference rub. Am I wrong?

We applied, I mean, as you know, the tariff will have been submitted to the authority roughly a month ago. We replied in these days to some questions they raised to us and will be finally approved by the end of July of this year. Of course, implicitly, the tariff that will be approved will embed the new deflator that is going to be about 5.3% for the year. Thank you.

The next question is from Marcin Wojtal of Bank of America in London.

Yes, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I mean, firstly, what revision to the WACC? do you expect in the Italian regulated business in 2025 based on current market rates? And secondly, I wanted to follow up on the guidance for the associates, because I think if my calculation is correct, now you're indicating a reduction of 55 million versus 2023. But I think the previous indication was actually quite similar, was around 60. So is it actually a material change in your expectations when it comes to international associates after this QAnon? It looks to me it's not very different to what it was before. Thank you.

Okay, thanks. When it comes to the work expectation, as you might recall in the business plan, we have assumed for transport, which is the largest part, you know, 5.7 in our business plan, you know, current interest rate point to a mark-to-market which is more close to 5.5%. You know, there are still five months in the observation period that are missing, but that is, you know, current, you know, mark-to-market. Now, that's a 20 basis point difference or lower vis-à-vis our business plan expectation. Clearly, lower interest rates also means for us lower cost of debt expected. Therefore, we are planning to basically mitigate and absorb this delta when it comes to our contribution to EBITDA and then net income. Then, when it comes to our... associate the the guidance in terms of their contribution has improved i mean you pointed out correctly we are assuming 55 million you know down currently vis-a-vis the full year 2023 in terms of contribution but it is the the reduction is smaller than actually what we were reported or expected when we presented our full year results, which was in the region of 60 to 70 million. So we actually are doing or expecting a 50 to 20 million better performance from our international associates, while the Italian one are, as I said before, more or less in line at a 90 million contribution.

Very clear. Thank you.

The next question is from Alberto De Antonio of BNP Paribas Exxon.

Hi, good morning, and thank you so much for taking my question. Just a follow-up on average cost of debt. Could you give us a guidance for the fiscal year 24 as you are expecting lower in finance and expenses on your guidance? Thank you so much.

Thanks, Alberto. Our assumption for this guidance is a net cost of debt at the end of 2024 for the full year of 2.6% from the current, let's say, 2.4%. Clearly, what we will be working on, as you probably seen also in the first part of this year, is in trying to reduce basically this guidance. And let me say that I think we will have positive surprises here, but I can comment on this when we actually close the year. But the expectation is 2.6.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and 1 on your touch-tone telephone. The next question is a follow-up of Stefano Gambarini of Equitas Simp.

Yes, two quick questions, if I may. The first regarding the announcement of Itagas that submitted an offer for two years at Itagas and the risk of a possible rights issue for closing the deal. Will you subscribe to this offer? capital increase in the case, it will be called. And the second, could you give us an update of the negotiation with Edison for Edison Stockaji? Thank you.

Okay, thank you, thank you. Okay, with respect to the ETA gas, our stake, as you know, has been classified as opportunistic among our associates and is bound by a shareholder pact with the CDP, as well known. Such a shareholder pact allowed us to issue an exchangeable in September 2023 with the objective of lowering the cost of funding. If there will be a liquidity event like the capital increase, we will behave in line to the definition and the strategy I pointed out, and we will be looking at maintaining the same financial exposure to etalgas as we have today. With respect to Edison Stochagi, as you know, we have an exclusivity period that will end in June, and we are planning to submit our binding offer by June. And we are in the final phase of the due diligence.

Thanks.

The next question is from Davide Candela of Intesa San Paolo.

Hi, good morning, gentlemen, and thank you for taking my question. Actually, just one. I was looking at the gas flows at slide four and noticing that the LNG imports were a little bit down year on year. And I was wondering if it is due to the a little bit lower gas demand or in some way related to the issues of course that have gone on year on year and I was wondering if it is due to the a little bit lower gas demand or in some way related to the issues of course that have been seen in the Middle East and maybe more broadly on this point if you can update on the situation about the transport of LNG to Italy. And which could be the balance if there would be maybe a drop in the import? Of course, if the geopolitical situation will negatively develop, just a view from your side would be helpful. Thank you.

I think, I mean, the reason why the LNG in the first quarter was down is simply because we had a major maintenance event on the old floating vessel. At the end of February, we had to stop the operations and to bring the vessel to the dry dock for an extraordinary maintenance that will end soon. by October, so to have back the unit in operation for the next winter. That's simply the reason, because for the rest, Piombino ran at full capacity. According to the slot, we received eight vessels in the first quarter as for planning, and the same happened for the Arctic LNG and Panigale. The reason is simply because of the available capacity of the alt and we haven't seen any, let's say, effect from the closure of SWAS channel for the LNG transport, mainly from Qatar. So they took a longer journey through South Africa but the deliveries happen regularly. With respect to the possible future implication, I can't see. short-term effects, again with respect to the Suez Channel performance, what I might see is a slight delay in the final investment decisions for the offshore developments, offshore Israel. That is, and I'm referring to the fields of Aphrodite and Leviathan. Those were planned to be let's say, was scheduled to take a decision by this year, and probably it will be postponed just to see how the situation will evolve in that area. But that is a mid-long-term possible effect. In the short term, we haven't seen, neither on prices nor on deliveries, significant and tangible effects.

Many thanks.

The next question is from Fernando Garcia of RBC.

Hi, good morning. Just a clarification of Abreu's comment regarding ItalGas. When you say that you are going to maintain the stake, you mean in percentage or in Euro terms? Thank you.

In Euro side.

Thank you.

Once again, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Ms. Pizzoli, gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

So thank you all for taking part to this conference call, and we will keep you posted. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over and you may disconnect your telephones.