8/8/2024

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Good day, everybody. Thanks for joining us for the results call. As always, I'll go through the investor presentation, which has been made available to you. I will call out the page numbers as I move through it. I'm going to start on page three, which has got some of the highlights for the quarter. All in all, a satisfactory quarter in line with the expectations, in line with the guidance that we provided. I think we're making good progress year on year, EBITDA up 40%, so obviously we've continued the recovery from the lows of last year. In terms of the segments themselves, and we will go into a little bit more detail, but on the pulp side, strong market conditions, good demand, and further upward movement in pricing. Paper side, muted recovery. Packaging volumes continue to increase, and we would expect to see more of that as we move forward. Graphics seems to be leveling off now at a new level. Obviously, post the declines that we've seen in the last couple of years, it seems to be leveling off, albeit that we know that seasonally Q4 is a stronger quarter than Q3. Please to say that the sale of the stock that mill was concluded in the quarter. We had proceeds of 49 million US. And all in all, the net cash generated for the quarter was 32 million, which is pleasing for us. Slide four has the EBITDA, sorry, the product contribution splits. And obviously, this is a longer term trend line. The big story is obviously on the right hand side that We continue to reduce exposure to graphics. We're below 50% now, being graphics. And obviously, we've got a couple of projects underway which will take that even lower. And I've talked about this before. Probably by the time we get to 2027, the target is to get that below 30%. Increasing contributions from our higher growth margin segments the EBITDA a little bit fluctuations or you can see in times with the macroeconomic conditions and specifically in the in the quarter Obviously on the packaging side. We had the big Somerset shot which would have impacted on the contribution from packaging moving to page five The bridge earnings last year relative to this year. I mean, firstly, recovery in volumes, particularly, obviously, in the paper segments, which has contributed to that. We did see some negative pricing and mix. The pricing, mainly in the packaging segment, where we did see somewhat downward pressure. you know, in pulp, as I said, positive. Savings in variable costs coming through, albeit that pulp, and all of you will know this, that paper pulp prices have been higher in recent quarters, albeit they've just started to come down again. Adding some fixed adjustments relative to last year associated with the shut. I'm giving us the EBITDA of 151 that you seen quarter on quarter. Moving to the input costs and this is a three year trend line. Obviously off the highs in 2022 we saw declines in costs, but then more recently pulp rising. And the other category is relatively flat, all in 2% quarter on quarter increase in variable costs. As I said, pulp is leveling off. And in fact, we're anticipating pulp to start coming down again. But most of that benefit will, because there's a bit of a time lag, will be felt in the new financial year. Page 7 has our leverage over time and our net debt levels. As I said earlier, positive move in net debt on the quarter. Obviously, we're higher than a year ago because we had to fund the expansion and conversion project at Somerset. And then more recently, we had the closure at Larnacan. So we had to fund those, but a strong focus on getting that debt number back down to close to the billion dollar level. Moving to slide eight has our debt maturity profile. Some change, obviously, relative to the last quarter. Perhaps the largest sizable refinancing or maturity is on our 2026 euro bonds. There's 240 million outstanding. We obviously continue to monitor. Just obviously, when we did issue those bonds, it was at a level of 3.125%. So it's very favorable. So keeping it running a little bit longer does help. And it's a big maturity, but it can be managed. We will pick the optimal time for that. Then moving to slide nine, just looking at the cash flow from a generation perspective. Obviously, in the current year, the free cash flow continues to be healthy. Obviously, at the bottom line, negative, but that's linked to what I talked about earlier, the capex. and the closure of Laniken. And obviously, we did clear the dividend in the current year. CapEx, we've guided down a little bit relative to the last quarter. We brought it down to 480. Some of the projects that we were undertaking, we've deferred into next year because they don't have an impact on operations. The biggest part of it is Somerset. that's on track. So under control and no surprises in the number. Page 10, we continue to be disciplined in our capital allocation with a strong focus on getting the debt back close to a billion. We've got to see through the Somerset project, which is going well. You know, thereafter, we haven't committed to any other major capex. So we will start generating cash when that project is completed. We obviously reduced exposure to graphics with the two mill closure stock that and Lanican on the pod side. We we we are. We've made the investments in grout corn to give us wet strength label. capabilities that will be finished in September and the Somerset expansion conversion which will be finished in April next year. The net effect of those two is effectively like taking two mills, two machines out of Coated Wood Free and obviously pushing us into higher margin, higher growth segments. on top of that Somerset giving us the extra volume so there will be growth on the top line associated with that too. Moving to segmental overview and page 12 the pulp segment you know within that obviously the main driver is dissolving pulp as I said favorable conditions strong demand no new supply coming prices favorable So we are feeling pretty good about the market conditions there. It's a tight market. Offsetting that BCTMP, you know, we sell some tons into the BCTMP market from Matan. That market has been tougher. And that's what impacted on the margin. Having said that, just remember when we complete the SICOR, sorry, the Somerset conversion, we are going to be supplying additional bctmp to the to the cycle mill so we're going to be less exposed to external markets we did we also did have the matan shut in the quarter actually which also impacted uh on margin and we had a cycle which which impacted moving to packaging um Obviously, there was a big drop in margin from what we've seen recently, but we had the 18-month extended shut at Somerset, which would have impacted. And at the same time, we did have some production issues at Somerset, not linked to the shut itself. Those impacted on volumes, they're now behind us and we're feeling good about the prospects in North America for the fourth quarter. Europe, mixed. Obviously, it's still difficult in Europe. The economy is still challenging, but there are pockets of improvement and we called out two there on the slide, labels and self-adhesives. The labels is good obviously because we're getting close to the completion of the project at Gratcon. In South Africa, generally good. The container board demand was a little bit worse than we had thought it was going to be, but underlying demand continues to be strong. Then on graphics, on page 14, as I said, we have seen recovery. um from the very lows of last year but it now it now feels like it's leveling off uh we will have a little bit of seasonal benefit in q4 but it does look like it's leveling off at around the 500 000 ton mark per quarter um a little bit micro negative macro economic factors at play but uh i i don't think we're going to get much substantial improvements from here Having said that, obviously, because of Somerset us taking out that capacity when we complete the conversion, that will reduce our exposure. Similarly, at Gratcorn and, you know, Posters closing the two mills earlier this year, you know, we're relatively full there. So the margins actually at 9% are reasonably healthy and at normalized levels. Turning to page 15, the product segments, sorry, the geographic segments. Well, firstly, I'm obviously pleased that the volumes are positive in each of the regions year on year. But I did call out, obviously, graphics leveling off now. Selling prices, we did see a little bit of negative pressure in the packaging segment. And that's what impacted the numbers in the European and North American regions. The margins, South Africa healthy. North America obviously impacted by the the summer set shut, but should get back to normal levels. And then, as we've called out, the European is lagging. But hopefully, some improvement will come through as the packaging and spatiality improves moving forward. And you see all of this graphically on page 16. so yeah i'm not going to repeat it but you can see that healthy in in south africa a little bit down in north america but recovery coming and then u.s still subject sorry europe still subdued Then on to slide 17, the Thrive strategy that we have. We shared this with you many times. It doesn't change quarter by quarter. We continue to focus across the four pillars. On the operational excellence, obviously very pleased with the progress that we made. And after closing Larniken and Stockstart, moving that volumes across. That improves our operating rates in the coated wood-free machines in Europe. And then across each of the regions, a strong focus on maximizing production. In South Africa, we continue to look for opportunities to increase our forestry. footprint. These are not material acquisitions but we continue to look for opportunities and we added a couple of acquisitions and that's in the CapEx numbers that you've seen. The Enhancing Trust firstly sees that we maintained our level 1 BE compliance. We think our sustainability positioning puts us in a a strong competitive space. And as I've talked about previously, we've probably got about 60 to 70 million over the next few years to continue to improve on our environmental footprint. The growth of the business, in the short term, it's built around the two projects that we've got at Gratcon and Somerset. And as you heard earlier, those are going well. And then in terms of sustaining our financial health, committed to getting that debt back downwards post the Somerset project. And as I say, we haven't committed any large capital beyond that. Slide 18, moving on to sustainability. Very proud that we got another Ecovirus Platinum Award across All three manufacturing regions getting the highest rating, six consecutive year, ranks us in the top 1% in our segment. Then moving to the outlook, which is on slide 20. It's fair to say that there's still challenging macroeconomic conditions out there. Interest rates are high, but hopefully they will come off at some point. But there is volatility out there. DP markets, I've talked about a couple of times on the call, still favorable conditions. On the graphic side, a little bit of seasonal recovery, but as I say, we're probably at the new normalized levels after the recent volatility of the last two years. Packaging markets continuing to feeling very good about North America and South Africa. Europe lagging, but we are seeing certain categories, as I said earlier, showing positive signs. On the cost side, chemical costs, there could be a little bit of inflation coming through. But on the positive side, it does look like pulp prices may have peaked. And they are expected to reduce in coming months which will benefit our paper business in the new financial year. Slide 21, we continue to focus on margin management, obviously taking into account our costs and ensuring that we can protect margins. The guidance for Q4, well, firstly, we have the plantation fair value adjustment. There was a a very recent reduction in wood prices in South Africa, which means you're going to have a negative fair value adjustment in the fourth quarter, which offsets much of the positive from earlier in the year. Taking that out of it, we anticipate that the EBITDA for the fourth quarter will be above the same quarter of last year. So further progress on our road to recovery and feeling positive about the quarter. Operator, that's me gone through the presentation. I'm going to hand it now back to you for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you so much, dear participants. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad and wait for a name to be announced. To withdraw a question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by. We'll compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. And now we're going to take our first question. And it comes from the line of James Twyman from Perseant. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
James Twyman
Equity Analyst, Prescient

Yes, hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. I've got three short ones, if I may, just to kick off with. The first one is in terms of capex, where do you see that in next year? Do you think that'll be similar to this year or maybe a bit higher or lower, just given that the Somerset expansion cost is still going to be fairly similar? Secondly, is there any restructuring cash flow in Q4, either positive or negative? I can't see anything substantial. Seems either to be in Q3 that we've had or coming in Q1. And then are there any further energy credit possibilities? Others have had them. You obviously got a big one in Q1 this last year, but just wonder if there's anything else that you could get there. Thank you.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

yeah i'll take the first one and glenn will take the the second and third ones um yeah on the capex you're right there's a similar similar number coming through from somerset uh next year so yeah we're still finalizing our budgets but overall as i look at it it is likely to be a similar number to career obviously predominantly around the the Somerset project. Glenn?

speaker
Glenn
Chief Financial Officer

Good. James, just in terms of the restructuring costs, there will be some minor costs coming through in the fourth quarter, but the bulk of them have come through, so it won't be anything substantial. And then in terms of the energy credits, we don't have any energy credits for the fourth quarter, no.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And it comes from the line of Brian Morgan from RMB. Morgan Stanley, your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Hi, guys. Thanks very much. With the pulp price cracking in China, can you just chat to us a little bit about how that might feed through into DWP? Do you think there's still some swing capacity?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

I'll start, Brian, and Mohammed can add to what I say. I think, look, on the positive side, the fact that the pulp prices are coming down, as I indicated in the presentation, we think there will be benefits for the paper business to come. On the DP side, so far, you know, no impact. Most of the swing capacity has already moved into DP. So we're not anticipating any sizable further moves away from pulp to DP. And as I said, and you would have got a sense of that as I went through the presentation, the demand is still robust. There is no new supply. And we're still feeling pretty positive. Mohamed,

speaker
Mohamed
Senior Vice President, Dissolving Pulp Sales

if you want to add to that. Yeah, Steve, the only thing I would add is that, you know, more recently there's been some further supply side reductions. There's a mill that's taken off DP production in Canada. So that's also tightened up supply as well.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, there's been a disconnect now between the paper pulp and dissolving pulp. And as I said, most of the capacity that would come across has already done so.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, cool. Thanks, Steve. Then can I ask on paper pulp, now with Lineken and Stockstack closed, what's your net short position in Europe?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

We are about 600,000 in Europe and about 200,000 in the US.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, that's great. And then the last question is, with the wood price drop in South Africa, can you just give us a an understanding of the magnitude of the price drop, and then can we expect that to feed through into any of your costs, given that you guys do still buy wood?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Well, the magnitude of the drop, Alex, that's public, right? So we don't have to, we can disclose that it's 125 rand a ton. Yeah, so that's public. You're right. And by the way, Brian, it's not just on what you buy from third parties. It's even on your own fair value, right? Because you take the fair value knock, and then it means that your cost per ton that you apply to the paper and pulp business comes down as well. So most of that benefit would be felt in the 25 year.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

That's great. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Brent Muddle from ABSA. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

speaker
Brent Muddle
Equity Analyst, ABSA

Thanks very much. Two questions from my side, please. So you've indicated that cotton prices are lower, but the viscose discounted cotton remains healthy. Do you have a sense of how much cotton prices would have to fall for viscose prices to rise? for it to be more favorable for cotton? That's my first question. My second question is, the last few quarters, post the closure of some of your European graphic paper capacity, you've been operating close to the 90% level. I just wanted to ask whether you could give us a sense, as you enter Q4, whether that capacity is still operating at around that 90% level, or has it moderated from those highs? Thanks very much.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yep, yep. Okay, on the first one, in terms of cotton versus viscose, it's not an exact replica because clearly they have different functionality. Historically, the two prices were very close. In recent times cotton has sold at, and Mohamed you can jump in here, at quite a significant premium. More recently it's come backwards. There is a correlation, but because it's a different product with a different process, the actual costs, the manufacturing costs are very, very different. There's no doubt when the price of one moves, it has a knock-on impact on the other. But, Mohamed, I don't know if there's specifically anything that you want to say on the relative movement.

speaker
Mohamed
Senior Vice President, Dissolving Pulp Sales

Steve, I would just say cotton has just proven to be very, very volatile, whereas this course has tended to be a lot more predictable. And what we've seen as a result of that predictability the buyers of the fiber have tended to go with the fiber that is more predictable so that they know what the input costs are.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Okay. And then on the coated wood free, look, we're still close to the 90% level. The industry, interestingly, in Europe is less than that. It's about in the mid 70s somewhere. So we are above those levels. And obviously, which means that some of our competitors must be struggling.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

All right, Super.

speaker
Brent Muddle
Equity Analyst, ABSA

If I may ask a follow up on that. And I think you've given this information before. Can you just give us your idea of what the surplus capacity is of Graphic Paper in Europe at the moment?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, good question. It's a tricky question because there's so many swing machines and you know whether it's on speciality grade some machines have uncoated on together with coated but it's probably we estimate the market demand for coated wood free in Europe at about two and a half million tons and it's currently

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

you know depending on how you allocate the capacity of the competitor maybe maybe about seven eight hundred thousand tons excess super thanks very much thank you now we're going to take our next question and the next question comes to land of sol casadio from m and gplc your line is open please ask a question

speaker
Sol Casadio
Analyst, M&G PLC

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have a couple more, more like a clarification. The first one is an accounting one. In regards to the impact of the fair value adjustments of your plantation on your EBITDA, you proposed 3 million in the P&L, if I understand correctly. But when I look at your cash flow, there is for the quarter 31 million negative uh in the account suggesting that there's potentially non-cash contribution of 31 million in the quarter so struggle to reconcile the two numbers if you can explain that that would be great okay so we're just finding that the 31 um of the report

speaker
Glenn
Chief Financial Officer

the combination of your price fair value adjustments and your volume fair value adjustments. So we put them all together because they're non-cash items.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, every year your trees grow and you have what we call a volume adjustment. So that's obviously non-cash as well.

speaker
Glenn
Chief Financial Officer

And we just call out the price fair value adjustment on the income statement.

speaker
Sol Casadio
Analyst, M&G PLC

Okay, and does the volume adjustment flow through the EBITDA as well?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, that's correct. Yeah, but bear in mind you have costs that you incur to grow your trees, your operating costs.

speaker
Glenn
Chief Financial Officer

Your silviculture costs.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

And they're pretty much similar.

speaker
Glenn
Chief Financial Officer

Correct, so they more or less set each other off.

speaker
Sol Casadio
Analyst, M&G PLC

Okay, thanks. And the second question is on your slide number four. You mentioned you have a target to reduce the paper contribution below 30% by 2027. I missed whether you were referring to the EBITDA or the volumes.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Oh, it's on volumes. At Somerset, we have a the machine that we're converting is about Mike, about 250,000 tons. So that's obviously coming out of the coated wood free space. And then at the grad corn machine in, uh, in Austria, we are, we're taking about 200,000 tons up. Yeah. Marco on, on graphics volumes, it's more towards two 50. Yeah. So that's on volume, obviously, um, that the segments that we're moving to, uh are higher margin segments so you would have not only the the volume adjustment but you would have the improved margin that would contribute uh towards the packaging and speciality is great thank you thank you very much thank you now we're going to take our next question and the next question comes to learn of large gel from stipple your line is open please ask your question

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Lars, please be advised, you have a little background noise on your line.

speaker
Lars
Equity Analyst, Stifel

Okay, I'm not sure what that is. All right, anyway, can you hear me okay?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yep, Lars. You sound far away. I'm not sure you're, you sound like you're on Mars. Okay, let me try.

speaker
Lars
Equity Analyst, Stifel

Is this better?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, well, let's go for it, Lars.

speaker
Lars
Equity Analyst, Stifel

Okay, anyway, so two things. You know, pulp prices, of course, were extremely elevated, and yet paper prices barely moved, which suggests, of course, there's competitive pressures out there. Are you seeing any sort of downward price discussions now on account of fairly rapidly falling pulp prices, particularly on the hardwood side? That's my first question. The other one relates to packaging. Obviously, we can track the price indices, right, for U.S. leached board, for example, and yes, it's down a bit. But most of the packaging grades, you know, craft paper, container board, et cetera, they're tracking higher. So what are you seeing in that market that makes, you know, your packaging exposure seeing some pricing pressure while the other big segments appears to be having the opposite?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think on the paper prices for graphics, no, we're not seeing significant downward pressure. Bear in mind that obviously pulp prices in Europe have lagged China. So prices are still relatively high. To be honest, we haven't... Sorry? Okay, I wasn't sure if you were asking another question there, but no, we're not seeing downward pressure. In the U.S., and I'll let Mike go into more detail or elaborate further, but we did see some negative price pressure on SPS markets. in the US, not significant, but downward pressure. I think there was, from a competitive landscape, I think there was some competitors looking to fill their machines. And maybe that's why the direction of the pricing is different from other categories. Having said that, it's not significant downward pressure, and we're feeling good about the market.

speaker
Mike
Vice President, Technical Operations

Yeah, I really think, Steve, you summed that up well. We're not seeing significant price pressure, I wouldn't call it. Maybe some minor price pressure last quarter. We're actually feeling good about our Q4, our next quarter.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

Okay.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Okay. Lars, do you have any further questions?

speaker
Lars
Equity Analyst, Stifel

I do. Can you hear me? Sorry, I don't know what's going on. Okay, very good. No, I was just going to say on the specialty side of the business, pricing direction, that would be helpful. And also a topic that has been quite vibrant on the U.S. side specifically is the trade publications keeps on talking about the European threat of folding box ports coming in. Well, it looks pretty apparent that given the wood cost in the Nordics in particular, that would be quite a challenge. But do you have any color you can share on potential import penetration that could have an impact on your volumes, in particular post-Somerset expansion?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah, look, your first question, I guess, is just a follow-on from what you previously asked. As we say, there is a... There is a little bit of downward pressure, but it's not significant. We are feeling good about the market in the U.S. Volumes are good. Our machines are full. And we are feeling positive ahead of the completion of the Somerset project. On the folding box board coming out of Europe, look, there's already some of that there. We're not seeing unusually high activity. You're right, the operating costs in Europe does create challenges for them to bring in more. But certainly, and again, I'm repeating myself, but generally we are feeling good about the North American market. We're feeling good about signing up customers ahead of the completion of the machine.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

and you know we're positive about the outlook thank you thank you dear participants as a reminder if you wish to ask a question please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced now we're going to take our next question and the question comes to land of brian morgan from rmb morgan stanley your line is open please ask a question

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks for the follow-up. Can we get $30 million of maintenance shots in the quarter? What can we expect in the fourth quarter?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Sorry, it was $30 million?

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Of maintenance shots, impact of maintenance shots.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we don't have any big ones. Sorry, it's immaterial. Small. Brian, where are we? Yeah, it's very small.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, when would you think the next big quarter of maintenance would come through?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, February we've got in Gurdwana.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

In Gurdwana. Okay, that's good. Thank you.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

And then obviously we've got Cloquet next year. Cloquet next year.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay. And just to confirm, these are 12-month cycles or 18-month cycles? 18-month cycles.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, the two American ones are 18 months, and Gdwana was 12. And then, you know, Syco, we don't have one big shot. We've got the three lines, and we schedule those at different points in the year, but that's 12 months as well.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Okay, cool. And then can I ask on Lineken and Stockstead, were you able to carousel all of those volumes or was there some volumes you lost?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yes, most of it we were able to carousel. There was a little bit of uncoated that we didn't, but we knew that and we took that out. But yeah, on the coated wood-free side went very well and most of the uncoated as well.

speaker
Brian Morgan
Equity Analyst, RMB Morgan Stanley

Cool. That's all for me. Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Now, when we take our next question. And the question comes from the line of James Twyman from Prescient. Your line is open. Please ask a question.

speaker
James Twyman
Equity Analyst, Prescient

Yes, thank you for the follow-ups here, too. So I had a few questions. The first one was, if you look at the nine months volumes, South African volumes were down so far this year, and pulp volumes overall were also down. And the common denominator would be South African pulp. But that should be growing, I would suggest, because of Psycorps ramping up. But it would be good just to check that that is the case. The second one was, there was a nasty looking fire at Psycorps last month, which fortunately didn't cause any injuries. Did that lead to a few days of downtime? Just be keen to know about that. And then the third one is, just what the mechanics are of the Somerset startup in terms of the extra downtime that is needed to put this all online and when you think that might be and what that might cost. And that then will be everything from me. Thank you.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Mike, we'll talk about the Somerset or changeover as we complete the project and

speaker
Alex
Vice President, Operations

uh alex will just give you a little bit of feedback on on the fire um in terms of the the dp volumes uh yeah we had a shot at a good one which affected uh yeah in the yeah yeah which we didn't have in the previous year um and what has really happened is we had an 18-month cycle and we've actually pulled it back to 12 months just uh because we're not very comfortable with the long duration. We obviously will be focusing on getting it back longer as we're comfortable with being able to maintain equipment. So it's really a change in the shut timing.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I'm just thinking, it's a year-to-date question. I think earlier in the year we had some challenges at Ngadwana as well, which took a few tons out. But maybe the bigger answer to your question is that the production at SCICOR is going well, and we're really happy with the progress that we're making there. Specifically to the fire.

speaker
Alex
Vice President, Operations

James, maybe just to give you some background, it was a liquid oxygen tanker that caught fire. It looked more spectacular than it was. This costs us about five days of downtime. But for me, what is very, very positive is the recovery. We literally got that mill up as quickly as we could get the equipment replaced. And there was a little bit of damage of equipment. And just to remind you, this was a real dead stop in the mill. So it's not that it was a controlled stop. So for me, what I take out of that is we really are under control of the operation on So very positive, but it did cost us some production costs.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Alex. Mike, on the Somerset.

speaker
Mike
Vice President, Technical Operations

Yes. So the Somerset outage is scheduled for 70 days of downtime on PM2. We go down the end of January, and we'll start up in April. The startup of the equipment is almost identical to what we installed on our number one paper machine. So this isn't a brand new equipment that we've never run before. We have a ramp rate that is planned over the course of the next six months. The most aggressive performance starts in that first month, so we'll ramp up substantially, and we should be at reasonable uptime levels within three months, and then we'll progressively get better through the course of the next nine months.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

is the way we planned it. And obviously, ahead of that, we will be building inventory levels.

speaker
Mike
Vice President, Technical Operations

Yeah. So it's about 50,000 tons, 52,000 tons of what would have been graphics orders. But remember, this machine is going to start up and be 100% packaging. And essentially, when back to full rate, double that production.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Does that make sense?

speaker
James Twyman
Equity Analyst, Prescient

Yeah, OK. So it's like an additional maintenance hit you're going to take sometime early next year.

speaker
Mike
Vice President, Technical Operations

That's the best way to think about it. But obviously, this is going to be a machine expansion that in those 70 days, we will be retooling the entire asset to make

speaker
James Twyman
Equity Analyst, Prescient

much different grade at a higher production rate so net net it's positive because of the higher volumes post the the completion of the project if that makes sense absolutely very much so very much so if I could just do what one more little one which is Lars was asking about coated fine paper prices with the rise in pulp prices you weren't able to get prices up, which means that the markets are quite weak, which maybe means there's a bit of pressure. But in terms of the speciality market, that's probably a bit different. You haven't managed to get any pricing there really either, it looks like. But presumably, can we feel a bit more confident there that you should be able to hold prices when your costs come down there?

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, what's made it tricky, right, is that the market has been weak. So it's very difficult to get price increases in Europe when the market conditions have been in that state. Things are improving. So our ability to hold prices will improve. Obviously, if you look historically, normally when the pulp cycle turns, that's when you know, that's when there's an opportunity to capitalize on the margin benefit. So it's going to be a strong focus of our attention to keep our prices high for as long as possible.

speaker
Unknown Participant
N/A

Thank you.

speaker
James Twyman
Equity Analyst, Prescient

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad. Dear speakers, there are no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Steve Binney, for any closing remarks.

speaker
Steve Binnie
Chief Executive Officer

No, just to thank everybody for joining us again today, and we look forward to discussing our year-end numbers in three months' time. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

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