Swire Pacific Ltd A

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Swire Pacific 2023 Annual Results Analyst Briefing. Joining us at the briefing today are Mr. Guy Bradley, Chairman of Swire Pacific, Mr. Martin Moray, Finance Director of Swire Pacific, and Ms. Karen So, Managing Director of Swire Coca-Cola. Before we take a detailed look at our annual results for 2023, we would love to show you a short video highlighting Swire Pacific's key developments and achievements in 2023. Enjoy the video. Thank you. ... ... May we now invite Guy, Martin and Karen to take us through the details of the annual results of 2023.

Good evening and thank you for joining us. I think we'll get straight into it. Look, it was a great set of results, first thing to say. Obviously helped by well, we hit a record underlying profit at $36.2 billion, and that does include the $22.9 billion gain from the sale of Swag Coca-Cola USA and the contribution from the agreements to sell 12 floors at One Island East, which are two extremely satisfactory deals that got done last year. This chart just shows the level of deal activity at the underlying profit level. In properties, you heard an hour ago that they've now committed almost 60% of the $100 billion plan to the core markets of Swire Properties, and that's a tremendous achievement in what's just about two years since they announced that plan. Beverages had a great year. You can see they completed at the start of the year the acquisition of the franchise territory in Vietnam, having just finished Cambodia just before the start of 2023. They then restructured the still beverages business in the mainland China market. As I mentioned, we disposed of the Swire Coca-Cola USA business. And then very recently, on the back of that disposal, we've conditionally agreed to acquire a majority stake in in the bottling businesses in Thailand and Laos. That was done in February 2024. So lots going on on the beverage front in 2023. Aviation, you heard yesterday, they declared an ordinary dividend for the first time since 2019, which I think is a good sign of their recovery. But meanwhile, they continue to invest, and they've ordered 32 passenger aircraft last year, on the narrow-body front with six cargo freighters. So there's growth plans happening on the aviation side. And lastly, on a much smaller scale in healthcare, we were very happy to conclude a minority investment in Indonesia in conjunction with the Indonesian Investment Authority in the hospital sector down there. And as of this week, we've reached in principle agreement to acquire... what will be a controlling stake in Delta Health in Shanghai, which is a main cardiology hospital in that city. Just a few highlights before Martin does the detail on the numbers. Obviously, at the recurring underlying profit level, we also had a substantial gain from 3.8 billion in the prior year to 10.4 billion, which is very significant. Very, very satisfactory, and we're paying an increase of 7% in the ordinary dividends on the A shares, which is a good result. I think you can see in the chart on the bottom line there that both the property and beverages business were reasonably stable year on year, but the big turnaround, of course, came from aviation, and you can see that in the bottom right there, a huge swing in the results from aviation. primarily Cathay Pacific and its subsidiaries. This next chart talks a bit more about the underlying operations and what's happening, which is where we saw the recurring underlying profit of 10.4 billion. In property terms, you heard Tim talk about the retail recovery in both Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, and I think that's probably the biggest driver, somewhat offset by a rather subdued Hong Kong office situation. In beverages, we're just seeing an increased contribution now throughout 2023 from the Southeast Asia portfolio, and I think you can expect that to continue into 2024 with the addition of the Thailand interest. Aviation, Cathay continued to rebuild its network, its frequencies, and that had a positive effect with good yields in 2023. And Hayco, on the back of that uplift in aviation, was able to ride on that and delivered an 86% increase in recurring profit. I'll now just hand over to Martin to talk about the detailed financial performance.

Thank you, Chairman. I'll start with the middle column because it's the biggest number. The underlying profit of 36.2, as the Chairman said, are excellent results. The statutory profit, the consolidated profit is attributable to shareholders, which basically adjusts for the principal movement in the investments at $28.9 billion, and then adjusting for the non-recurring items, a recurring underlying profit, a very strong recurring underlying profit of $10.5 billion. Revenue up 3%, and again, as the Chairman mentioned, delighted to continue with the progressive dividend policy of 7% on top of the special dividend that was paid on the sale of Swire Coca-Cola in the US. This slide here basically is, we can quickly go through the non-recurring items on that piece. So if we look at the right-hand side there of the underlying profit and make the comparison to the recurring profit, it shows there. So in property, you have the gain on one island's east where the 12 flows of 5.4 billion, nine flows were included in the 2023 number, 2.7 billion is our attributable level. In beverages, you have the 22.9 billion gain on the sale of swag Coca-Cola US, and then partly offset by a small payment on the recycling business. In aviation, we had a deemed disposal rate when Air China sold down its shares, and also they reversed some of the impairments. Some of the aircraft that they didn't expect to come back came back into the fleet with some terrific results from Cathay Pacific that were announced yesterday. There was an impairment in Goodwill in Hazel, and as you know, we sold the cabin solution business. There had been a drag on the HACO business earlier in the year with a loss, including the results there. And then... And then lastly, as we were very excited actually to announce our investment in Delta Health, I saw a small impairment there of 250 million actually reflects the better pricing that we did in terms of doing the deal for the majority. So it's a good news story in terms of, as we explained with the entry into healthcare, taking a patient view and waiting for valuations to come down to better levels. And here, just the reconciliation which is outlined in the press release in terms of the difference between the underlying profit to the statutory profit to the recurring. On the recurring, as the Chairman mentioned, these are really strong results even though they look quite flat. So I think from a property point of view, as we mentioned earlier, Tim and Fanny went through very resilient results. It's fantastic to see the results, particularly on the retail side, given the being offset by the softness in the office market that's been there for the last couple of years. Beverages is flat, but you have to remember that we are missing four months from SWAC Coca-Cola US in that piece. So again, great results on that and the first contributions from Vietnam and then the terrific results from aviation that were announced yesterday and fantastic to see Cathy back in business and paying a dividend again. In terms of the balance sheet, again, we have a very strong balance sheet. Cash from operations is strong, up to $14.5 billion. Our weighted average cost of debt remains relatively low at 4%. Gross borrowings, the fixed are at 76% on that piece. And gearing is a very well-managed 17%. And on the maturity profile, we've got a strong maturity profile. We have got some debt being refinanced in the second half of this year at very manageable levels.

With that, I'll pass it back to you. Thanks, Martin. For those that weren't at the properties briefing earlier, I'll just do a quick summary of where that business went in 2023. You can see that the small increase in recurring underlying profit driven by the retail recovery primarily was somewhat offset by the subdued office market in Hong Kong, as I've said. But overall, we're making good headway in all our strategic areas on the property side. I'd just like to draw your attention to two things on here. One is the fact that Swire Properties were ranked number two in the world last year in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index, which is a tremendous feat. which we're very proud of. We believe in this sustainability theme, and we're delighted to be now the second-best real estate player in that sector in the world. So that's a really good achievement by the team down there. The other thing to say is the divestment of One Island East over there for $5.4 billion to the SFC project. I think really just that transaction reinforced Taiku Place's position as a global financial district, and we're extremely pleased to have got that transaction done in what you all know is a reasonably subdued market. This just talks to – you'll have seen this before a year ago and probably an hour ago, but this just talks to the – the property overview showing the effect of the exceptional items on the underlying profit movement, and those exceptional items being the One Island East divestment and the sale of the car parks in Taikuxing. Just moving on to the Chinese mainland, the key point here, of course, is that the Chinese mainland in 2023 contributed 40% of our attributable gross rental income, which is an all-time high, and the Chinese mainland retail is now the second largest rental contributor in our portfolio, so there's lots of growth going on in the Chinese mainland for Swire properties. I won't dwell on this chart, but again, it's one that looks familiar to you all, but the important point here is that almost two-thirds of that $100 billion commitment plan is actually committed now, and it's only two years into the 10-year plan, so been some great progress across the board, really, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and in the Chinese mainland. You can see the split there. Finally, here's the pipeline. Lots of interesting new projects ahead and in lots of different geographies, and all of which are core to ourselves. I think the ones that I'd like to highlight really is the the growth of 8 million square feet in the Chinese mainland going forward, and those are on the projects that we've been able to announce. It's a great story what Swag Properties are doing up there, primarily on the back of Tai Ku Li and Tai Ku Kuei, and you can see from here that that story continues. At that point, I'll hand over to Karen to talk about the Coca-Cola business.

Thank you, Chairman. So 2023 was an exciting year for Swire Coca-Cola for expansion. In the Chinese mainland side, we have completed the restructuring of the steel manufacturing business by acquiring 100% equity interest in six subsidiaries of CCBMH. Revenue in Chinese mainland was similar to last year, but with sales volume increased by 2%. We have made good progress in expanding our portfolio across coffee, tea, and energy, which grows strongly. And we continue to enhance our efficiency and energy use in our production facility. In Southeast Asia, the total franchise population of Swahili Coca-Cola territory has reached 847 million following the acquisition of Vietnam and Cambodia. Last year, Vietnam has made meaningful full-year contributions to our overall business. And as you are aware now, last month, we conditionally agreed to acquire a majority stake of the Thailand Butler and Laos in February. Over to the US side, we have completed the sales of SCCU in September last year, recording a consolidation gain on disposal of HK$22.9 billion. Swire Coca-Cola continued to provide management and administrative support to the business through an agreed annual management fee. The financial result of Swire Coca-Cola was impacted by the non-recording of the last four month sales from SCCU. On the local domestic market, SCCU has delivered very strong revenue growth through the revenue growth strategy and also the innovation across multiple categories. So I just want to mention a bit more on our acquisition of the Thailand bottler. So Thailand Tip franchise territory, Thailand Tip is the bottler who managed 90% of Thailand and all of Laos. Thailand Tip is the non-alcoholic ready-to-drink market leader in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 450 million unit cases. The market share is at 18%. The acquisition underscored the immense growth potential that we see in Southeast Asia, and it will further strengthen our position as the fifth largest bottler for the Coca-Cola system. Over here, you will see the EBITDA performance is comparable versus 2022, and this is mainly due to the non-recording of the last four-month sales from Swire Coca-Cola USA, in favorable exchange rate movement in China's mainland and Vietnam. In last year, Vietnam has delivered strongly and provide meaningful contribution to the overall profit situation for Swag Coca-Cola. At the recurring achievable profit level, we are on par with 2022, and this is mainly, again, due to Swag Coca-Cola USA exchange rate and also which is offset by the contribution from Vietnam. From the category mix, we still see most of the category mix contributed by sparkling category, but most of our market are having a good progress in expanding our portfolio across multiple categories. And I want to draw your attention to the EBITDA margin. We have improved our EBITDA margin by 0.7 percentage point, which is mainly contributed by the additional Southeast Asian market. And again here, you were able to see on the right-hand side of the chart, the Southeast Asian market addition to our overall portfolio helps to improve the overall EBITDA margin of Swire Coca-Cola. So with that, I would like to hand over back to Guy to talk about aviation.

Thanks, Karen. We've discussed the turnaround in the CAFE group and the recovery already. I'd just like to highlight on here the HACO side of aviation, and you can see that they turned in a decent recurring profit gain for 2023 of 86% on the back of the aviation recovery. Catholic Pacific, meanwhile, obviously had a huge year. That huge year has allowed them to pay back the preference share dividends of $0.2 billion in February 2024. to pay an ordinary share dividend of 43 cents a share, which will be paid in May, and they plan to buy back the remaining 50% of the preference shares in the amount of 9.8 billion owed to the Hong Kong government by the end of July 2024. In terms of the aviation overview, this is really just a story both on the passenger and the cargo side of QCCS. 2023 saw very healthy yields. 2024, we're going to see some normalization of those yields, both, as I say, on the passenger and on the cargo side as the industry continues to recover. For Hayco, most of the group's businesses performed better in 23 than the prior year, driven by the substantial resurgence of Hong Kong air traffic. which drove the increase in the demand for maintenance and repair of airframes, particularly line maintenance in Hong Kong. The recurring attributable profit increased, primarily benefiting from higher activity in base maintenance, line maintenance and engine overhauls. And that was partially offset by a higher operating loss from the cabin solutions business that we managed to dispose of in the middle of the year. The group completed the sale of that business in September, and that resulted actually in a non-recurring loss on disposal of HK$420 million. Just turning to healthcare, I mentioned the two transactions. The great thing about the Delta transaction is that this will be our first control acquisition in healthcare. a rather conservative stab during COVID at going into minority positions in some investments, and now we feel confident enough to actually take a control position here, and we're quite excited about that. But that is a deal that is just happening this week, so that will be good. On the Indonesia side, again, very exciting geography for us and for healthcare. We're in with a great partner in the Indonesian Investment Authority Group, And it just really shows our commitment to supporting the development of that sector in Southeast Asia and specifically Indonesia. On here, you can see that we did start small during COVID. The existing investments are trending in the right direction. We do expect valuations of target assets to soften. And if they do, we've earmarked 20 billion Hong Kong dollars in capital over the next few years. So far, we've only spent just under $3 billion of that capital allocation. So hopefully there's more to come on the healthcare side. Martin, would you like to cover sustainability?

Thank you. So on sustainability in Swire, we report our ESG sustainability on what we call Swire Thrive, which is the five pillars down the left-hand side there in terms of carbon, waste, water, and also includes health and safety and communities. And we've set relatively aggressive targets for 2030, 50% carbon emissions by 2030, 65% waste diversion, 30% reduction in water withdrawal, 30% women on the board. And in all these targets, we are very much on track, great to see. So in climate, we reduced our emissions to our 2018 baseline by 30%, and it's good to see us getting recognition in different scores at A-. In waste, we are at 61%, so well on track to hit that target. Water, we remain on track also to hit the 2030 target, having reduced our water consumption by 8% against the 2018 flora and efficiency baseline. And again, good to see Swag Coca-Cola getting recognized with a score of A-. In terms of D&I, we've achieved a target of 30% women on the board. We are, in terms of striving to achieve these targets, we are piloting across our three core divisions an internal carbon pricing mechanism, which again will encourage the divisions to keep investing in reaching those 2030 targets. And again, as I'll keep mentioning, the way we stand on indices, we are proud of the results that SWAC properties have just announced in terms of the Dow Jones Sustainable Index. At SWAC Pacific, we're AA plus on the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainable Index and AAA on the MSCI Index. So from that point of view, we are in good shape in terms of sustainability. And I'd encourage you all to read the sustainability report that will come out early April at the same time as the annual report.

Thank you. In terms of outlook, finally, the detailed outlook by division is right there. I would just say in sort of headline terms, there's no change to our strategy. I feel we're well positioned financially and in pipeline terms for more investments in our core businesses and geographies. And we remain completely focused on improving value for shareholders in 2024. That said, 2024 will have headwinds, and they will be felt across most of our businesses. And with that, we should go to questions.

We'll now proceed to the Q&A session, as the chairman says, and we will take questions from the floor. Please advise your name and organization, and please provide your questions in English with no more than two questions at a time. Please await my cue, and my colleague will pass you a microphone. Any questions, please? Yes, gentleman in the middle.

Hi, Carl Choi from Bank of America. A couple of questions. First of all, for the beverage business, you mentioned I think the outlook for mainland China is still somewhat, I think, challenging in 2024. Can you just give a little bit more color on what you're seeing? And given the low inflation environment, what's the pricing outlook there? And second is regarding capital returns. Obviously, Swire announced a $6 billion buyback program, which has been very well received recently. But given the additional Southeast Asian beverage investments and some of the other things in your pipeline, from a credit sort of leverage standpoint, is there additional scope to continuing with the share buyback program beyond the $6 billion? Thanks.

Thank you for the question. Yes, we do see after COVID, we do see a very slow economy recovery post-COVID time in 2023. And we continue to see 2024 is going to be challenging overall economic environment. However, we remain fully confident on the long-term outlook of the economic situation for China. So that's why Coca-Cola will continue our investment in this market and continue our capability building.

Yeah, on the share buyback, yes, we did announce the $6 billion program. We're very early stages in that. That'll go through to May 2025. So we've spent just about 900 million of that program to date. So we are tracking to spend that 6 billion. We completed last year the previous 4 billion program, so we liked it, and we'll continue to assess that. We've got a long time before we have to reassess the share buyback. But at the same time, as we said, we have made big announcements over the last two years that the Tim was mentioning again earlier the $100 billion that Swire Properties have made, the $20 billion that we've talked about in terms of health care, continuing to invest in all our core businesses at this time where we are seeing opportunities just like in health care, et cetera. And we've been saying for the last two years that that will not change our progressive dividend policy and it won't change our ability to do share buybacks. I finally mentioned earlier in terms of Swire Properties keeping gearing for the next couple of years between 2020 12%, 15%. So similarly, and the gearing would be, could easily go up to 20% over the mid-term in terms of supply properties, and ours could go to a healthy mid-20s, and I'd still be very, very happy with that. So we're in great shape, I think, to continue with all shareholder returns in that sense.

Thank you, Karen and Martin. Any next questions from the floor? Yes, gentleman in the middle, please.

Hi, this is George Choi from Citi. I have a couple questions on the Thailand bottler acquisition. So we're told now that this bottler operation has an annual capacity of 450 million unit case. I just wonder if you have the data on how many unit cases were produced last year in 2023? And in terms of EBITDA margin from that operation, how does it compare to, let's say, Vietnam? Please. Thank you.

Thank you. So Thailand Butler, the current production capacity is 450 million. They produced 400 million cases in 2023. So in terms of EBITDA margin, overall the EBITDA margin from our Southeast Asia market is on a higher rank compared with our the rest of the Asia business, it is comparable with our Vietnam margin. Thank you. Thank you.

Any other questions? Yes, gentleman in the back.

Hi, this is Jeffrey from Morgan Stanley. First of all, congratulations on the strong results. And it was great to see that you raised your regular dividend by 7%. Just want to check how do we think about the future dividend growth, given that you have now sold the U.S. bottling business, which contributed quite a part of your regular profit, excluding CX. And also you mentioned that the outlook for office market is quite challenging. Thank you. And the second question is, what is your outlook for the funding costs and also net gearing in the coming years? Thank you.

Yes, sure. So the first question was on the dividend outlook. The dividend outlook, yeah. So our dividend policy is to pay at least 50% of our recurring underlying profit. But the other thing we said is, and it also includes a full pass-through of any dividend received from Cathy Pacific. So, again, in that piece, it's fantastic to see them paying dividend again. And that dividend and, you know, the business is moving to more normalized levels in terms of having that peak in 2023. But we still expect it to be very profitable in 2024. And so the combination of that makes me confident that we continue with our progressive dividend policy. in that piece. And, you know, similarly, I think that we'll maintain we've got good, strong cash flows coming through. And so I do expect gearing to be kept at very strong levels as well, very low levels at that sense.

Right. Next question. Any from the floor? Great. With that, we'll wrap up our Q&A session. Thank you once again for coming to the analyst briefing. Have a great evening.