Tata Steel Ltd 144A

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Tata Steel analyst call. Please note that this meeting is being recorded. All the attendees' audio and video has been disabled from the backend and will be enabled subsequently. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Samitasha. Thank you and over to you, ma'am.

Thank you, Kanchuk. Good afternoon, everybody, and good morning and good evening to those of you joining us from different time zones. Welcome to this call to discuss our results for the fourth quarter in the financial year FY24. We are joined by Mr. Narendran, our CEO and Managing Director, and Mr. Chatterjee, our Executive Director and CFO. I hope you'll have had a chance to go through our results, which were published yesterday, and the presentation, which is up on our website. The entire discussion today will be covered by the Safe Harbor Clause, which is on page two of the presentation. I will now request Narendra to make a few opening comments before we then move on to Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Narendra.

Thanks, Amita, and hello, everyone. I'm going to make a few comments and then pass it on to Kaushik for his comments, and then we'll open it up for questions. FI24 has been a year of progress for Tata Steel despite the operating environment. The global commodity prices, including steel, have been significantly impacted by what's been happening in China. And China's economy is yet to fully recover from its pre-pandemic, to its pre-pandemic activity levels. And its property sector has been in a prolonged slump. While these factors weighed on the steel demand, production remained broadly stable, leading to elevated exports. And as a result, global steel prices have moderated across regions, including India, particularly for flat products. And geopolitical tensions have weighed in on the sentiment as well. Despite the overhang of the domestic steel prices, our India performance improved on a year-on-year basis, aided by growth in volumes and an agile business model that is focused on optimizing the cost profile. We achieved the highest ever crude steel production of 20.8 million tons, as well as deliveries of around 19.9 million tons, and the domestic deliveries were up 9% year-on-year, leveraging the persistent demand in the domestic market. Among the market segments, automotive volumes were aided by higher deliveries of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils to the automotive OEMs and grew by 8% year-on-year, and the focus on the product mix led to a 6% year-on-year growth in high-end sales. A well-established retail brand, Aratiscon, witnessed a 15% year-on-year growth and crossed 2 million tons on an annual basis. We cover more than 8,000 PIN codes through a dedicated channel of distributors, dealers, influencers, and have an e-commerce platform called Asiana, also to reach out to customers who may even be outside India, who want to place orders for steel to be delivered in India. We are looking to shape construction market practices through ready-to-use solutions and have 33 construction centers pan-India that have been started over the last few years and this enables off-site construction and helps us move the value chain because that's a trend which is there and more gently reduced our dependence on external purchases. Overall in India, we continue to focus on market leadership across chosen segments via capacity expansion as well as product mix enrichment. And at Kalinga Nagar, we initiated the store heating. Stove is also started for the blast furnace. We started heating the first stove a couple of months back. We also started the chimney heating for the coke ovens. And so the commissioning activities are continuing in a phased manner. During the year, the 2.2 million ton per annum coal rolling mill was started, which helped us in our downstream presence. As far as UK is concerned, we are committed to a sustainable future and we've decided to proceed with our proposed restructuring and transition to greener steelmaking. We look carefully at all the options over the last seven months in consultation with the union representatives. We will be closing one blast furnace by the end of June. The co-covens is already closed in March, as you may be aware. We were supposed to close it in June, but because of operational reasons, we closed it earlier. And by September, we will close the second and the last blast furnace. Our proposal is the most viable and preserves majority of the jobs in the UK. And Tata Steel remains committed to creating a low CO2 steel business, which will reduce about 50 million tons of CO2 emissions over a decade in the UK. The proposed plan will safeguard steel supplies in UK and Wales and create economic opportunities for generations to come. In Netherlands, our production was lower in FY24 due to the reline of the blast furnace 6, which took longer than we had planned for. And this weighed on the cost profile. The realigning was completed early February and we have a situation where the blast furnace is fully ramped up now. We are committed to responsible growth and sustainability is at the core of our strategy. Our route and pace of decarbonization is calibrated across geographies. I have already spoken in detail about the UK. In Netherlands, we are in discussions with the government for financial and policy support to aid a green steel plant and clean steel plant. In India, we are undertaking multiple initiatives including pilots to avoid or convert captured carbon We have undertaken measures to green our energy mix to reduce our dependence on coal-based power plants and are also focused on nature-based solutions and conserving water. For instance, we have championed bamboo plantation in our leasehold land and communities barren land around Jharia where our underground coal mines are. The collaboration with farmers will generate livelihood opportunities and act as a carbon sink over time. The bamboo can be converted into biochar and replace the pulverized coal which we inject today into our blasphemous. To a certain extent, this reduces emissions as well. I am happy to share that our water conservation efforts have led to zero effluent discharge at the Kalinganagar site. With this, we now have two sites that have achieved zero effluent discharge, namely Kalinganagar and the Kamaria site, which we acquired from Usha Martin some time back. We also recently became the first Indian steel company to ship raw materials from Australia using biofuel blend with a very low sulfur fuel oil, which is a VLSFO, setting a new benchmark for sustainable shipping practices in India. On that note, thank you once again, and I'll hand over to Kaushik.

Thank you, Naren. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all those who have joined in this call. Let me give you a deeper sense of the financial performance for the quarter and the full year, following which I will give you an update on the Tata Steel UK and Tata Steel Netherlands in addition to what Naren just commented. I will begin with the quarterly performance and then move to the full year performance. Our consolidated revenues for the Jan-March quarter stood at about 58,687 crores, while the EBITDA was 6,631 crores. Excluding the FX impact, the EBITDA margin improved quarter-on-quarter by around 200 basis points to 12%, and this was driven by steady performance in India and much better and improved performance in the UK and Netherlands. At Taraskeel, for the quarter, the EBITDA stood at Rs. 8,190 crores, which translates to an EBITDA per tonne of about 15,107 per tonne. Excluding FX gain of 15 crores, the EBITDA was 8,176 crores, which translates to a margin of about 22%. As provided on slide 36, lower steel realization due to market conditions and higher material costs primarily due to the inventory drawdown were partly offset by improvement in conversion costs. Fourth quarter is seasonally strong and typically witnesses inventory drawdown, which translates into a charge in a standalone financial. Despite the slight moderation in EBITDA margin, they are close to the last 10 years average range of about 20 to 25%. In Karstiel, Netherlands, EBITDA loss was reduced from a negative 117 million in the third quarter to to negative 27 million in the fourth quarter. The completion of the realign of blast furnace 6 in early February has led to improved volumes and thereby positively impacted the inventory changes and fixed cost absorption in the fourth quarter. We are currently operating at the rate of 7 million tons per annum of crude steel post completion of the realign of the blast furnace 6. As shown in slide 38, the drop in revenue per tonne of about £32 per tonne was more than offset by the improvement in the cost profile. Material cost improved by £32 per tonne while conversion cost improved by about £71 per tonne quarter-on-quarter. At other scale UK, the EBITDA loss reduced from minus £159 million in the third quarter to to around negative 34 million in the fourth quarter. As shown in slide 39, the revenue per ton was down by about 12 pounds per ton, but was offset by improvements in total cost leading to better margins. Improvement in total cost was primarily driven by lower emission rate costs, lower bulk gas related expenses and credit on R&D spends in the prior quarters. The early closure of the coke ovens will weigh on the raw material costs in the near term as we purchase coke and also the bulk gas balance till we close both the furnaces. I'll speak about that transition in a bit later. Overall, the consolidated operating cash flows for the quarter were around 7,394 crores, aided by operational performance as well as favorable working capital management to the tune of almost 2,000 crores during the quarter. Let me now give you a snapshot for the full financial year 23-24. As mentioned in slide 31, our consolidated revenues in financial year 24 was 2,29,171 crores and the EBITDA was 23,402 crores, which translates to an EBITDA margin of around 10%. The India EBITDA margin was higher at 22%, but this was offset by the operating losses in the UK and Netherlands due to operational issues, much of which Naren alluded to. For financial year 24, Tarasteel standalone EBITDA was 31,000, which translates to an EBITDA per ton of 15,573, excluding FX gains of about 433 crores, EBITDA was about 30,571 crores and the EBITDA margin at 22% has witnessed a year-on-year improvement of about 400 basis points. Lower steel realization was more than offset by the decline in the costs. On a per ton basis, the material costs improved by about 6,000 rupees per ton due to lower cooking coal consumption cost and reduction in purchase of pellets. With the commissioning of the 6 million tons pellet plant at Kalinganagar, we have gradually brought down the external pellet purchase at Kalinganagar and Miramandali sites. At Adashi in Netherlands, there was an EBITDA loss of £368 million versus an EBITDA profit of £600 million in financial year 2023. This was primarily caused by the delay in the ramp-up of the coal rolling mill and the relining of the blast furnace 6, which weighed on the product mix as well as on the cost profile. The revenue per ton declined by about £158 per ton, while conversion costs increased by about £21 per ton. Material costs were broadly stable. Lower raw material costs were offset by change in the inventories. At Tata Steel UK, the EBITDA loss expanded significantly. from 125 million in financial year 23 to 364 million in financial year 24. The revenue per ton was down by about 143 pounds per ton, while material cost improved by about 50 pounds per ton, and conversion cost improved by about 6 pounds per ton. Material costs were primarily aided by lower cooking coal and iron ore consumption costs, With the structural steps that we are undertaking, including the closure of the heavy and assets, this will reverse, especially in the second half of the financial year. Overall, our consolidated operating cash flows for the full year were around 20,300 crores, aided by a strong India performance as well as favorable working capital movement to the tune of about 3,300 crores. There were cumulative working capital release of about 3,800 crores in India and in Netherlands. Of the generated cash flow, we spend about 18,207 crores on capital expenditure, which is broadly in line with the guidance provided for the full year and is higher by about 29% compared to the financial year 23 spent. We have been prioritizing growth in India and majority of the spend for the 5 million ton expansion at Kalinganagar and the other downstream operations in India. Separately, we have utilized some of our cash balances in Netherlands to find the relining of the blasphemy sixth. And this has been part of the explanation that has led to the decline in the cash and cash equivalent. from 17,000 crores in financial year 23 to 9,532 crores at the end of financial year 24. As a result, while our gross debt increased by about 2,189 crores to 87,082 crores, the net debt actually increased by 9,700 crores to 77,550 crores. However, the group liquidity remains very strong at about 31,700 crores. Looking ahead, we are focused on the financial stewardship to enable returns across the cycle. In the next financial year, we will be spending approximately 16,000 crores of capital expenditure. Most of this will be spent on the completion of the Kali Ganagar expansion and a little part of it will be on the UK decarbonisation programme. We will continue to prioritize CapEx for growth, India growth, and triangulate spend with deleveraging to ensure that the balance sheet remains strong and flexible. We are actively pursuing options to deleverage based on the cash flow generations. We are exploring green financing options and continue to provide comprehensive sustainability disclosures as a responsibility corporate. An update on the ongoing restructuring and transformation in the UK. Let me start with the restructuring. As you are aware, we have been engaged with discussion with the multi-union trade unions, which is represented by the Steel Committee and its advisors since the announcement of the agreements on the terms with the UK government in September 23rd. As part of the consultation, we have carefully considered the multi-union proposal for continuity of glass furnace through the transition to the electric arc furnace. Further, we have also explained to the UK Steel Committee representatives who visited the site that building a new electric arc furnace while continuing to operate the existing steel melting shop is a high-risk complex and will delay the transition by two years. Tata Steel and the union's advisors reached a common conclusion that the multi-union plan would involve significant additional costs of at least £1.6 billion. Therefore, the national consultation between the Tata Steel UK and its unions on the asset closure plan has concluded at the end of April. Under the proposed restructuring program, Port Talbot's two blast furnaces, that is number 5 and number 4, would close by the end of June and latest by the end of September 2024. Following the closure of blast furnace 4, the remaining heavy end assets would also wind down and the continuing annulling and processing line, the capital, would close in the month of March 2025. Tata Steel UK has also agreed that it will continue to operate the hot strip mill through the proposed transition period in the future. Planning for the cessation of the blasphemous for the planned dates of June and September is currently on track. The details of the cessation, the isolation plans to enable a safe shutdown have been prepared. Decommissioning managers have been onboarded and discussions with the local bodies and regulators are ongoing on safety and hazard related aspects. In short, we are on time as far as the blasphemous 5 planning for shutdown at the end of June is concerned. A couple of points on ensuring a safe and smooth transition for our operations. Tata Steel UK has already secured most of the slab and the hot roll coil substrate required during the transition to ensure a seamless service to its downstream business and customers. It has agreed the details with the associated British ports to expand the slab handling and stock holding capacity in the South Wales ports. and is also in advanced discussion to have rail movement capacity ready for onward transportation of substrate to the appropriate sites. I also want to mention that we are progressing on the EAF project as per plan. We are at the advanced stage of engineering and expect to place equipment orders by September 2024, and based on the current permitting timelines, we will begin construction on the EAF project by August 2025. We have also formally signed the connection offer with the electricity system operator in the UK for the new high-voltage connection in Port Talbot. The new infrastructure will be made available to us as per plan, ensuring that we can commission the EF on schedule in 2027. I would also like to now give you a brief update on the discussion in relation to the decarbonization plans for Tata Steel Netherlands. We need to arrive at a solution which has the support of all stakeholders and especially the Netherlands government. In November 2023, we had submitted a plan to the Ministry of Economic Affairs whereby we will replace one of the two blast furnaces with a direct reduced iron plant as well as an electric arc furnace. On March 28, after reports from two independent advisory groups appointed by the government, The Cabinet confirmed that the government is willing to support this together with certain other measures which will improve the environment and health impact of our amounted plant. The Parliament has given the mandate to the government to negotiate the same with the company and in May and the negotiations with the government have started with the idea to finalize terms of support along with the commitments under a detailed framework during the course of the next six months or so. Now, I'd like to spend a little bit of time on our sustainability disclosures. We are actively involved in development of national and global standards and in the previous year have published the BRSR report and the climate change report aligned with the recommendation of the TCFD. Further, Tarasteel has committed to the UN SDGs since their launch. We have prioritized 15 out of 17 UN SDGs after an intensive and multi-pronged approach that considered national and regional context, company contribution and opportunity to create the larger impact. A total of 68 targets have been prioritized across 15 goals and they are linked to business KPIs and the annual plan. The Tata Steel Foundation, which anchors our social impact program, has been incubated as the institution which converges resources, talent and social capital necessary to implement a bottoms-up population-level impact on complex societal challenges. It has the know-how and the models to replicate our strong impact footprint in newer locations in the country, including Maharashtra, West Bengal and Punjab, along with Eastern India, which is our focus geography. In financial year 2024, our programs impacted the lives of more than 4 million people from vulnerable sections of the society while enabling steady progress on prioritized SDGs. The company focuses on signature themes which are large scale and has proven changes in the society and addresses the core development gaps in India while being replicable even at a global platform. Some of them include the Mansi program, which is the maternal and newborn survival initiative, which saturates about 50 blocks of Jharkhand and has led to stabilization of more than 80% of identified severely acute malnourished newborn children. Our work on community-based education in a district saturation mode has led to 440 panchayats, including all panchayats of Keonjar and Orissa. declaring themselves as child labour free zones in the financial year 2024. This is complemented by Mastiki Parchala, which is working with 3,800 children today to create an urban agglomeration free of worse forms of child labour. Our programs on advancement of tribal languages now cover 40,600 learners in 702 centers of 10 languages of the tribals and tribes of Eastern India and has fostered around 40 original literary and academic properties in these languages during the year. An equal emphasis is laid on regional change models. enabling lasting betterment in the well-being of communities, prioritizing those who are excluded and proximate. These include climate-resistant, resilient agricultural programs where we worked with more than 90,000 farmers with visible impact on their incomes. Our health and wellness initiatives have led to reduction in incidence of malaria per thousand population, aided in recovery of tuberculosis patients, and identified high-risk cases, especially in women and children, to treat appropriately. Water is a basic community and more than 47,000 plus lives have been touched via water conservation activities. We have created nearly 166 million cubic feet of water storage in and around 1,450 acres of land that has been treated in the last three years. It runs with a mandate of designing and delivering program which brings irreversible intersectional and transformational change while also leveraging these strong programs, extensive understanding of communities and management skills to partner with like-minded partners and organizations through collaboration. Going forward, Tata Steel will remain the anchor funder. and provider of necessary system support, while Taraski Hill Foundation will leverage private and public capital as a force multiplier of impact at a much larger scale. Overall, our initiatives are wide-ranging and aligned to our operations and CSR activities to make a better tomorrow. With this, I'll end my comments and reopen the floor for questions. Thank you so much.

Thank you, sir. We will now begin with the question and answer session. We will be taking questions on audio and chat. To join the audio questions queue, please mention your full name and email ID in the chat box. Kindly stick to a maximum of two questions per participant and rejoin the queue should you have a follow-up question. We will unmute your mic so that you can ask your question. To ask questions on chat, please type in your question along with your full name and email ID in the chat box. We will now wait for a moment as the queue assembles. The first question is from Satyadeep of Ambit Capital. Satyadeep, please go ahead.

First question of the UK Transition Commission. just want to understand in the notes the council mentioned the current agreement with the UK government is non-binding and you still need to sign the gross funding arrangement and have the final investment decision now UK is heading into elections in July and you indicated you want to shut down the glass furnace in June so how does the signing of the investment final investment decision before elections after elections impact your plans and would you still go ahead with the closure of Even if the gross funding agreement and fund investment decision is not made by them.

Yes, Satyadeep, so while the GFA term sheet was non-binding, but we are at an advanced stage as far as the grant funding agreement is concerned. That is something that has been finalized between the UK government and us. And as I said, it will run its own course in terms of getting signed in the next maybe few weeks or so. The elections are a political event which does not affect the company's plan on moving ahead with the project. This transition is very critical and very important. As I mentioned in my commentary, we are on course as far as the planning for the decommissioning of the heavy end is concerned. The first one will, the last one is 5, will be taken down in the end of June. The Coke Evans is already being wind down earlier than planned because of operational issues. And therefore, we are on course as far as our plan for the decommissioning of the heavy end is concerned. We have also done extensive seven-month consultation both informally and formally with the steel committee, which is the multi-trade union platform. And we have concluded on the consultation at the national level. And that is something which is an important bit, which is what we announced sometime earlier. And therefore, it is on execution phase as far as the project is concerned. And this year, we plan to spend our initial part of the capital in terms of the site preparation and the other engineering costs, as I mentioned in my commentary.

Just want to make sure I understood correctly, even if the JFA and final investment decision is not made by June, and no matter what happens, you'll still go ahead and close the glass furnace in June, right? Is that understanding correct?

Yeah, so the grant funding agreement, it is not a contingent issue. Grant funding agreement is, as I said, is an advanced state of finalization. it will get done. And as far as the decommissioning is concerned, that is as per plan that we have announced.

I think, Satyadeep, if I can supplement what Kaushik said, see the closure of the blast furnace and the winding down of the heavy end was something that we've been talking about for quite some time given the financial performance of the UK business. The grant funding agreement and the agreement with the UK government is to invest in a new facility. So I think we had anyway said earlier also that the current operating model is not workable for us in the UK because of the bleed. And the bleed has continued, it has increased. So I'm kind of saying that both coming together is ideal so that we can build the electric arc furnace as we want to. But given the losses that we have, closure is going to happen anyways.

As also the physical condition of the assets. Because you can't run a blast furnace without a coke oven for long. So we are very clear as far as the heavy and wind down is concerned.

Secondly, on the equity infusion into TS Global Holdings, understand it's about 2 billion US dollars, maybe 1 billion is for the capital contribution for UK position. The remaining, what was the need for India business to come to the rescue? In America, finance the debt that is coming due in the UK, business won't talk us to Europe. have had the ability to do that on its own balance sheet. Just want to understand the rationale for this resolution, board approval for the equity inclusion.

So, Satyadeep, I think when you look at Tata Steel, I think all of you look at Tata Steel consolidated. So, when you look at Tata Steel consolidated, the entire debt is a Tata Steel consolidated debt. There are assets inside and outside. The debt which we are talking about is actually a Tata Steel debt in foreign currency in Singapore. So this whole announcement, I think we had an inkling that it will be read wrongly. The fact is this is largely for refinancing of our schedule loans that are coming up during the year. And there is some part of it which will go to the UK for funding its operating cost in the first half. And thereafter, we expect UK to, apart from the restructuring cost, to get into a state where from an operating point of view, it will not need capital anymore. But a large part of this funding is actually for repayment of debt.

This repayment of debt is for the foreign currency loan that you mentioned.

That's correct.

It has been possible for Data Street to provide a letter of comfort again that the company had done in the past to be able to refinance that debt instead of equity infusion.

So we will, it is also, you have to look at holistically. From a tax point of view also, if I look at it, we are looking at the India balance sheet to be the one which is most, it will be the most tax efficient. So from both a tax point of view as well as from the entity which will have the most leverage will effectively be the Tata Steel India business. And we don't want to keep debt outside and go through the fluctuations. I think both UK and Netherlands will be cash self-sufficient and UK post the project will be a cash self-sufficient entity. That's our strategy. That's our vision to drive. But this debt that is there, which was a debt on Tata Steel, it was done in Singapore for different reasons. As you know, there were withholding tax issues, etc. But it is actually a Tata Steel debt and that's why it's happening like that. There is no use giving letter of comfort and raising debt overseas and then meeting the debt servicing requirements from India.

Thank you so much. I have one question and John will take it.

Thank you so much. The next question is from Ashish Kejriwal of Novama. Ashish, please go ahead.

Sir, I have two questions. One, because we are on the verge of commissioning our KPO phase 2. So is it possible for you to give any volume guidance for it because last time we gave 0.7 million ton and was the status right now and coupled with that how much capex is still left in this phase for this?

So I will answer the first part Ashish. The guidance on Kalinga Nagar is 1.7 million tons now for this year but the overall guidance is 1.4 because we have One of the blast furnaces in Jamshedpur being taken down for relining the G blast furnace in Jamshedpur in January. So we will lose some volume there, which will offset some of this 1.7. So that's why the overall guidance for the year is 1.4. But the Kalinganagar specific guidance is 1.7 million. And next year, we will obviously ramp it.

And what about the capex? How much we have already done and what's the meaning of the capex?

Yeah, last year we spent about 6,000 crores. This year we will be spending another 5,500 crores roughly.

So, total capex for this Kalinga Nagar project is to be around 25,000 crores or less than that?

It is 7,000 crores including downstream and upstream, which is the mining etc.

No, no, I am talking about the total project cost for this KPO phase 2.

Yeah. So, this is what I'm saying that when I take the KPO phase 2, we have to take the downstream including the coal rolling and the carbonizing line, etc. And we have to take the mining because we are expanded on our mining capacity to service that. It will not come out of thin air, right? We have to spend money to get the iron ore capacity. All taken together. So, it's not a slicing of just the steel assets. The steel assets plus the downstream assets plus the upstream assets and the infrastructure required is about 27,000 crores.

And before we move to the next question, Naren, do you want to just clarify on the volume guidance from a console basis in the intercompany phase?

Yeah. So, on a console basis, you will see that the Netherlands production obviously increases with both the blasphemous is operating. But if you saw last year, Netherlands, the sales was higher than the production because we had slab stocks. So the sales impact of Netherlands additional volume will be less than the production impact of Netherlands additional volume. And because the UK heavy end is being closed by September, both India and Netherlands will be supporting the UK operations by supplying slabs and hot roll coils. So, the net, so there will be some incremental volume of production which will flow to UK to make up for the second half of the year. So, the net volume guidance which I gave is for India and is on a consolidated basis also around 1.4 million tons.

That's very helpful, sir. So, secondly, in terms of European operation breakdown to UK and Europe in the end, so UK, what could be our estimated cash outflow because of this restructuring because we have not done yet So that's one. And second, do we think that UK operation can start making break-even also in FY26?

So our current projections, yeah, go ahead, Kaushik.

No, no, no. So F526 certainly, F524, F525, second half of the year, if you look at the underlying business, I keep taking the restructuring out. But if you take the underlying business, it should certainly be a bit positive. And we are looking at making it cash neutral in the second half. So it will not reflect in the full year being EBITDA neutral. But in the FY25-26, we'll certainly look at the full year being EBITDA positive.

Sure. And what about this restructuring cost cash outflow?

So the restructuring cash outflow has got multiple components. I think the amount that one component is the redundancy. The second component is contract termination. Then there are closure costs. So all taken together, the redundancy is not going to happen on one day. It is a phased as we close in June, as we close in September, then there are notice periods and terms that we are and the agreement with the, or the proposition that we have for the employees, especially on the voluntary side. So it will, what we had guided when we announced the redundancy program was that we are targeting about 2,600 people to go over an 18-month period. That's the phasing that we'll have. So even the cash will also go in that similar manner. So we will have significant part of the closure cost, contract termination, et cetera, during the financial year 24-25, and the redundancy will be phased over an 18-month period. So the total cost of that is somewhere in the zone of – 250 to 280 million only on these issues, which includes redundancy, which includes contract cost and includes part of the closure cost. So that's how we should look at it. The voluntary redundancy is a option given or it's not an option given, it's a way in which we start the redundancy process. for people who take the voluntary redundancy. So, the phasing also depends on which people take it and thereafter moves to a compulsory redundancy stage at a later point in time. So, there is a phasing process in this.

Thank you so much. And lastly, can you give CAPEX guidance for F525 for India and Europe separately?

I thought I gave that. I said 16,000 crores.

75% of that would be in India. Just to give you a difference.

Okay. Thank you, sir. And all the best.

The next question is from Amit Dixit of ICICI Securities. Amit, request you to please go ahead.

Amit, we can't hear you.

So, Amit, since we are unable to hear you, we request you to please send in your question via chat or rejoin the queue. We will now move on to the next question. The next question is from Sumangal Nevathia of Kotak Securities. Sumangal, please go ahead.

Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. Thank you for the chance. My first question is on the fourth quarter earnings for the Europe entity. It's been somewhat of a surprise in what we were building in. So just want to understand, is there any one-off gains, anything with respect to carbon credit or anything which has benefited in the fourth quarter?

UK has had a 51 million benefit of the carbon credits. Correct.

Okay, this is 51 million pound or some per ton or something? Per pound. Okay, only in the UK. Got that. Okay. I just wanted to understand when we are just running the hot strip mill, I mean, on a steady state basis, will we be able to cover the cost of the remaining 5,000-odd employees? And, I mean, if you could just explain some unit economics as to how we can achieve EBITDA positive during the construction period over next three years. Okay.

So, these 5,000 employees are spread over all the downstream units. You know, the hot strip mill only has a very few people there. Most of the 5,000 is actually in commercial functions, downstream units, because we have a tubes business, a packaging business, other cold roll galvanized, etc., etc. So, because the cost of the hot roll coil or the slab that we supply will be lower than the cost at which we were producing it, in the UK, we expect it to be EBITDA positive when we do this. I think that's the math. Kaushik, if you want to add.

Yeah, just so, I think the same maths. I think there is 2.7 million tons of downstream. The hot strip mill is only the, now becoming the starting point of the manufacturing process rather than from the blast furnace. So that's why we are going to get a lot of slabs into in the UK from India as well as Netherlands and elsewhere. And then the number in the host ship mill is only 400. It's actually more beyond that. And therefore, what we expect is a conversion cost, as Naren mentioned, we were losing money because the cost of producing the slab in Port Talbot is higher than purchase of the slab. Therefore, there is a spread that comes in, apart from the downstream spread that gets added to it.

And both this matches with the fact that Netherlands has a slab surplus. And India is going to be slab surplus for some time because when the Kalingalagar expansion happens, we'll have a million and a half tons of slabs extra available, which we will later value when we invest in more facilities.

Understood. Understood. My last question is on the spreads. So both for India, Netherlands, UK, if you could share how are we seeing prices moving, NSRs moving in the coming quarters and how about the raw material price movements?

Yeah. So for India, the guidance is roughly 300 to 350 rupees per ton improvement in realizations on Q1 compared to Q4 because Q4, you saw prices sliding between January and March and then prices have started going up since April. So on an average to average basis, this is what we expect on realizations in Q1. In UK, it's going to be flat. In Netherlands, we are seeing an improvement of about 90 pounds per ton also because of the mix and things like that. And the product mix keeps improving because our coal rolling mill also had issues last year and all that is back on track. In terms of cost, consumption-wise, cooking coal in India will be about $10 lower on a consumption basis. In Netherlands, it's going to be about $24 per ton higher because of the inventory that we have there. And in terms of UK, there's no coking gold involved because the coke ovens is closed. But the iron ore will be about $10 lower in UK and about $10 higher in Netherlands.

Okay. So, I mean, do we expect UK to be in losses continuing to be at least for next one or two quarters and some sort of a break even for Netherlands?

So, Netherlands will be EBITDA positive starting Q1. It has been EBITDA negative for the last few quarters. UK will be a bit more positive as Kaushik said earlier from Q3.

Understood. And just one last question on Netherlands. We mentioned in the opening remarks that discussions with the government has started on the potential subsidy. In how many years is the end of life and when do we expect the transition? What is happening in UK similarly in Netherlands?

No, it's not, in this case, not an end-of-life issue. It is more a regulatory issue because by 2030, there is a regulation to bring down the CO2 emission in Netherlands as part of the 55% reduction rule in the EU. So it is less to do with end-of-life of assets. It's more to do with the reduction in CO2. as also to take care of the other environmental concerns and health concerns. So the engagement with the Netherlands government is to move towards accelerating the decarbonization and moving towards lower CO2 to comply with the 2030 regulation, as also the fact that the free allowances of CO2 actually will keep coming down as per the EU regulation. So as the free allowances keep coming down, we will have to, if we continue our blast furnaces with the CO2 prices north of 80 euros per ton, the cost of operating the same assets will become very significantly higher. So this is a transition more on the true decarbonization rather than end of life.

And that will involve the entire 7 million ton capacity or in phase A?

Yeah, it will be in phases. The first phase will help in covering for the compliance of 2030 and the second phase will follow thereafter. So the CO2 allowances will go down to zero post 2032. So I think the first phase is to build, take one of the blast furnaces and convert it into electric arc furnace. And the second phase will be then look at the second blast furnace, whether it will be electric arc furnace or another new technology by that time is what we have to evaluate from a techno-economic perspective. But as of now, the focus of the conversation on the phase one.

Understood. Thank you so much for all the answers and all the best.

The next question is from Trang Agarwal of Old Bridge Capital. Trang, request you to please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon and thank you for the opportunity. Two, three questions from me. One, what's the cost differential between India and Port Talbot, the scrap cost differential? Cost of production?

What we guided in the past is that post EAF, the cost in Port Talbot will reduce by about $150 a ton. That's why we say going forward, Port Talbot will be a positive contribution. You said scrap cost? No, no.

Slap cost. What I meant was what's the slap cost differential between Port Talbot and India?

So the India business, as you know, is one of the lowest cost producers of steel in the world. And you can see that from the EBITDA margins even today, right? So there is a significant cost advantage in India. But it's not that you can service the customers that you want in the UK for an extended period of time. importing slabs and coils from elsewhere. I think that's why it's good as a temporary solution. There are also limitations on how much you can import into the country. There are exemptions that we will seek, etc. So it makes sense now, but eventually when the EAF comes, we will be in a better cost position for local production and local supplies. And that's why we are moving as we have proposed.

Just to add to that, Tarang, you know, the entire sales will be on an arm's length basis. So totally market price driven. It's not that we're going to be transferring at cost or anything like that. Between intercompany, it will be completely at market price. And as you know, we don't give segmental profitability. So it's really hard for us to sort of give you what is specific. I realize, I realize. But it will be entirely at market price. You know, there are related party guidelines in place and it will be the transfer pricing will be completely market price driven.

Sure, ma'am. So, you know, business has been constrained by capacity in India. Is it affecting your current relationship with customers? And, you know, are you losing, do you feel like you're losing market share? Because, you know, we've just not had enough material in the Indian market.

So it's like this. I think the Indian market obviously has been growing and we've also been growing, as you know, we've doubled our capacity in the last years. So having said that, the point is not so much the absolute volume. I think what is important is the product mix. So, for instance, the coal rolling mill in Kalinga Nagar has helped address a gap. We were short of some of the very high-end coal rolled and galvanized steel that we needed to supply to our auto customers. And that is getting addressed through the coal rolling mill that we are setting up. So, I think we are focusing more on specific segments. The Kalinga Nagar project itself is helping us make significant inroads into the oil and gas industry, which we were not able to service from junction point. So we are more focused on our market share and overall basis being much higher or rather market share in the targeted segments being much higher than our overall market share. And we like to be at at least one and a half to two times our overall market share in the chosen segment. So in the auto industry, we have a 50% market share. Our overall market share may be 20%. but we may be a lower market share in some of the other segments who are just price buyers. So we focus on segments where approvals are required, quality is important, service is important, and try and see that we get the highest market share in those segments. That's been the philosophy of our business. We'll continue to do that. But obviously, sometimes we build equity ahead of the supply and that puts pressure on us to grow and we will continue to do that.

Okay. So, through cycle profitability of the Netherlands business historically has been anywhere between 60 to 80 euros, right? I mean, that number is a reasonable number to work with, correct?

Yeah. Actually, it's around 100 euros. And if you look at it, it's between an 80 and 120. So you can take 100 euros. That's our basic assumptions on getting profitability across cycles. If you take a 10-year average, including the upturns and downturns.

Okay. Just two more pointed questions, sir. What was Netherlands free cash flow for FI24? And for the group, if you could give me the blended cost of debt,

So the Netherlands free cash flow was negative because we were, so you can say it was more zero because we had about 700 million euros of cash sitting on the company. So with the 360 euro, 362 million euros of negative EBITDA, plus the BF6 relining CapEx cost, it actually, that was the cash which got used up, and we have ended the year with almost zero cash.

But there would have also been a working capital release, right?

Yeah, it is a working capital release, which has been part of, so there are below EBITDA costs also, which has got affected. There is a net release on working capital, but there has also been, for example, the startup cost, which has come to restart the blasphemy and so on.

I think to emphasize the point, last year was the first year when Netherlands has been negative EBITDA and negative cash.

The next question is from Keestan Mehta of VOB Capital. Keestan, request you to please go ahead.

In terms of the equity infusion, we have proposed 2.1 billion to retire some of the overseas date. So, what is total our overseas date available and will we be also have to infuse further equity overseas to continue with this strategy and what would be the total we envisage when we complete the UK restructuring because even CapEx is likely to be supported by the India entity as has been previously said.

So, Kirtan, when we say that it is the overseas equity, equity injected the form of the equity is not necessarily to be equity. The form of the equity could be debt too. So what we are basically saying that we are looking at the equity injection into the entity because we could have simply given a debt to that entity and then every quarter we would have translation gains and losses to account for. So what we have changed our approach is basically to fund it through equity or put it as a funding mechanism as an equity rather than just give intercompany debt. Because to us, we have seen it in the previous years that it is much more efficient to do it this way than to look at it from just an equity perspective, debt perspective. I think there is a – in Singapore, we have overseas debt or foreign currency debt. There is a 400 odd million of debt in, which was the original chorus acquisition debt. We have reduced it from almost 1.9 billion to 400 million euros over the years. And there is about a little more than half a billion working capital debt between Netherlands and the U.K., which we believe that once the Netherlands becomes cash flow positive at the end of this year and next year, it will deal with its own working capital debt requirements. In UK, we will equitize part of it, which is part of this amount that we are talking about, which will be about 300 million roughly of that injection that we are going to do. And the balance part will continue for its own working capital requirements.

So, does this mean that we may not need to sort of inject further equity into this overseas business for further debt support?

We will, not for debt support, but for the project in the UK, we will fund it from India.

750 million funding could be potentially additional funding which will go.

750 million plus the restructuring costs.

Right. Right. Second question was about the PSK rollout. We have indicated 1.7 million ton is the production target for the year. Could you also sort of run us through the key project milestones that we are envisaging for startup of various units through the year? And will we be reaching 5 million ton capacity by end of year?

Yeah, so the most critical one is the blast furnace to start by September, the physical completion by June and the commissioning to happen over the next three months after that. In September, the start of the blast, blowing of the blast furnace is the critical milestone, I would say, because we have the continuous annealing line also coming up, the coke plant also coming up during the year. Samita can give you the specific months for each of these. And we have the third caster of the steel melt shop coming up later as the blast furnace ramps up. And to go back to your point, yes, the plan is to... have it run to full capacity next year so that you get the additional 5 million. If you look at 1.7 million in six months, you know, you're already coming close. I don't remember the exact March number, but you will be coming close to the rated capacities. But we can give you more specific inputs on that.

Kirtan, if I can just give you a sense of, you asked for the overseas debt numbers. Can you If I can give you the numbers in more details, the foreign currency bonds of Tata Steel is about 16,600 crores. And in Tata Steel Europe, between the original long-term debt, working capital debt, etc., it's about 14,000 crores. And there are some credit lines in NARP. procurement and trading entities. So this is broadly the numbers that you can take on board.

Thank you, sir. I would now like to hand over the conference to Ms. Samita Shah for the chat question. Over to you, ma'am.

Thank you, Kanchuk. So I'll take the questions on Europe first, and then we'll move to the questions on India. So I think the questions are about our investments in both UK and Netherlands and why we are continuing to invest in these businesses and what is the ROC which we see from these businesses.

So strategically, I think... If you look at both, I think both Maria and I have talked about it in the past as far as what we see. If you look at it from also a strategic point of view, both Netherlands and UK are Models where the decarbonization transitions are happening faster. And if you look at it from a ROC point of view, I think our expected ROC in the region of 12 to 15% across cycles is what we estimate. I think the fundamentally... With the Kabam coming in, and I'm sure you are noticing the space as the transition happens on account of green premium and as well as Kabam, there will be a time in the next decade and beyond when the pricing in Europe will certainly factor in because all the exports that has been going on into the EU as well as to UK will be much more costly, where the domestic advantage in the European geography will significantly be higher. There is, I think, a strong business case on the decarbonization, both in the UK and Netherlands. And when I talk about 12 to 15, I said these are on mid-cycle long-term assumptions. So I think there is a way in which the industry is also shifting. And therefore, we are looking at – and if I also add to this that as far as Netherlands is concerned, In Netherlands, there will be a substantive part, unlike in the UK, where internal capital will also be used to fund this transition. So it's a combination of internal funding, project funding and government support. And thereafter, we will look at behind all of this will be Tata Steel. In the UK, we have agreed for a 500 million from the grant from the government and the 750 from Tata Steel over the next four years.

I think to supplement what Kaushik said, in India, while it's all about growth and being able to build capacity to keep pace with the growth, in Europe, it's not about growth. It is about the supply side restructuring. There will certainly be significant restructuring in Europe because not everyone will be able to transition. into making green steel, and hence there will be a restructuring there, and we expect the demand-supply balance to be better in Europe as this transition happens.

Thank you. I will just move now to some questions on the merger. What were the benefits of the merger of the Indian companies which we went through in FY2014?

I saw a number of 400 rows, I think.

No, I think, so there are three, four buckets, and I think between the taking out of central cost efficiency and there are optimization on procurement and raw material supply chain benefits. I think we are looking at a total benefit of around 282 crores this year. Plus, if you take everything into account, I think the total benefits will be close to 400 crores.

Thank you. There is some confusion actually on the volume guidance. And how does that actually work through from a consolidated basis? So I would just request you, Naren, if you can just clarify.

So I think what I want to say, I tried to say it earlier, but I'll just repeat it. So, you will see in UK the production volume will be lower this year than last year. Because the second half of the year we are not going to be producing steel in UK. In Netherlands you will see production higher this year than last year. Because last year we were operating with one blast furnace for most of the year. This year we will operate with two blast furnaces. So, that is from a production point of view. The exact numbers Samitha can give you. When you look at sales, in Netherlands, we sold more than we produced last year because we had high cost slabs in stock, which we used to produce and sell. About 0.6 million tons of slabs and hot roll coil is going to go from Netherlands to UK to support UK in the second half of the year. And about 1.1 million tons of steel is going to go from India to to UK to support UK in the second half of the year. So totally about 1.7 million tons of steel produced in Netherlands or India in slab or coil form will go to the UK, which will get reflected in most of it will get reflected in the UK sale. Some of them will be of course inventory and this is going to be ongoing beyond this financial year. And overall, if you look at a full year, let's say from next year point of view, almost 3 million tons, 2.7, 2.8 million tons of steel needs to be supplied from UK, I mean from Netherlands, India or anybody else. Because we are also looking at supplementing what we can't supply out of UK and Netherlands, UK and sorry, Netherlands and India. We are looking at supplementing it by sourcing steel from other steel companies who are willing to sell slabs or coils into the UK. So overall, on a consolidated basis, the guidance is 1.4 million tons more, largely because of what's happening in India, where the Kalinga Nagar operation is going to produce 1.7 million more. than it did last year. In Nilachal, we expect about 200,000. So that's 1.9. And there is a half a million tons which we will lose because the G-blast furnace in Jamshedpur is going to go down in January. So that's broadly the number. Hence, we are seeing on a consolidated basis, volume guidance is 1.4 million tons more, which nets off all these going from Netherlands to UK and India to UK, etc.,

Thank you. Thank you. There is some question on demand and also in terms of our expansion journey to 40 million tons. What is the plan? And also a question, I think, on this current phase two. Do you expect this to have a better margin profile than the blended EBITDA per ton currently?

Yes. Overall, the demand is expected to grow, in our view, at 8% to 10% steel consumption demand. So that's why we are bullish about growing in India. So the Kalinga Nagar, to answer your question, yes, today when we look at the different sites, the Kalinga Nagar margins are probably the best for us simply because we don't have many of the legacy costs that we would have in Jamshedpur or even in Miramandli where we only acquired the plant three, four years back. So there are some legacy inefficiencies which we are trying to fix, structural inefficiencies, if I were to put it that way. So the Kalinga Nagar plant is a plant which we built from scratch, very efficiently laid out, very efficiently designed and very well run. And hence the EBITDA margins in our Kalinga Nagar plant amongst our sites is the best. So as we grow in Kalinga Nagar, that's good for Tata Steel. As we grow in India, that's good for Tata Steel. So that's one part which I want to say. What is the second part?

Second was basically about 40 million tons.

So 40 million, so the good news for us is we now have this land that is required to go to 40 if not more. Because the Kalinganagar plant which is going to be from 3 to 8 million, next phase will be from 8 to 13 and from 13 you can take it to 16. In Nilachal, we are at 1, we are running full out already. First phase is to take it to about 4.8 or 5 million tons. The next phase is to take it to about 9.5 million tons. So, we are now currently working on Nilachal taking it to 5 million tonnes. We have started work on Kalinganagar if you were to take it from 8 to 13. We are already doing some work in the Miramundli plant to take it from 5 to 7. Beyond 7, we can go up to 10, but these days since there is a lot of requirement on green cover in all our sites, like in Miramundli we need to acquire a little bit more land to give that 33% green cover that is required. So, while we have more than 2,000 acres of land, we do need to acquire a little bit more. So, we are seeing Miramundi at 7, Kalinga Nagar clearly at 8 and going to 13. So, that means between these two, they are at 20. Nilachal going from 1 to 5. So, that's at 25. Jamshedpur is already at 11. So, that is 36. We have the EAF coming up in Ludhiana in the next two years. That will take us to 37. And our plan is if this EAF operating model works well, we can very quickly set up EAFs in the west and south to leverage the scrap available in those markets. So it will be a low carbon footprint operation where you recycle scrap and you're close to the customer. So, you know, you don't emit a lot of CO2 in delivering steel to customers. So for us, 40 is very much visible. In fact, more than 40 is visible because Kalinga Nagar, like I said, can add another Three more and Meera Manli can add another three more when Kalinganagar goes to 16 and Meera Manli goes to 10. So, that means with the existing sites and of course, Nilachal can add another five more. I have only said Nilachal five. So, which means beyond the 40, we have another 10 billion which we can add in our existing sites.

Thank you. I think that should provide them the clarity. There is also a question about Chinese steel entering India via Vietnam. And if you're seeing that in the marketplace and our views on that.

So that's a concern we have in the steel industry, that countries with whom we have FTAs are being used as a conduit to supply steel into India. Earlier, the issue was more with Japan and Korea. But now we are seeing with some of the Southeast Asian countries. So that's why as an industry, we are looking at the space and also working with the government. A fundamental point to the government is as far as private sector CapEx is concerned, the steel industry is leading the way with investments. And we need to make sure that this momentum is not derailed because of somebody selling steel, which is unfairly priced to take care of problems that they may be having in their domestic markets.

Thank you. There are some questions on the financing now. So there is a question on what is the blended cost of debt for the group today?

It's more around 8.5%.

Yes. Eight and a half, just to clarify, would be on the standalone. At a console level, it would be more around seven. Yeah. And just for all the listeners, as you know, we've gone through extensive rate hikes globally, over 450 basis points and about 250 basis points in India. But our interest rate has actually not, you know, has grown at a fraction of that. So just to give you some flavor. There are some questions which I don't think are accurate, but I will just raise them here. It says the company still relies on Tata Sons for funds and raises funds through debt backed by the parent.

That's not true. We do not... We have no debt which is backed by Tata Sons, just to clarify.

Yeah. And the second question is the company is facing... is planning to raise funds. So why are you distributing dividends instead of repaying debt?

So I think from a company strategy perspective, we've been consistent as far as our dividend payouts are concerned. And I think consistent dividend payout is an important part of our financial architecture. And that's what we're doing. We don't go overboard. Neither kind of star we just want to maintain. And this is also a reflection of the confidence of the board and the future of the company. And that is something that with Kalinganagar coming in, turnaround of the UK, the ramping up of Netherlands to a profitable operations, it gives enough confidence to the board to continue to pay the dividends on a consistent basis.

Thank you. There's a question on deleveraging and debt repayments. You know, what is the plan for debt repayment and do you expect to deleverage in FY25?

So FY25, as I said earlier, it is a transition year because we are going to allocate capital on multiple fronts. The first priority is to close the completion of the Kalinganagar expansion. Second is to start putting funds into the electric arc furnace project in Ludhiana. Third is to complete the restructuring in Dar es Salaam UK and start spending the money as far as the EAF project is concerned. So with these priorities are very clear and Our assumption at this point is the markets, if the market is at the bottom of the cycle that we are seeing today, then our first target is to ensure that we are cash flow neutral. If the market provides more momentum in the months ahead, every opportunity will be taken to reduce the leverage beyond the prioritized capital expenditure.

Also, Kaushik, I think we are forecasting that our net debt to EBITDA will be below 2.5 by the end of the year.

So that's the overall framework, but I'm just saying from a specific point of view, we'll certainly, any opportunity that comes to the company and which we have, the deleveraging is going to be a continuing strategy of the company. I don't see that to be seasonal or tactical in any form.

Thank you. And the last question which we're taking is on Sukinda mine surrender. Can you explain why you're surrendering the mine and what are the implications of this? Sure.

You know, Sukinda mine was something we've been running for a very long time. And it had reached a stage where there was only that much you could do through open cast mining. And we knew that to run it further, you needed to do underground mining. So when it was put up for auction, our conversations with the state government was that even if we win it, we will have to obviously in two, three years start the work on underground mining. And that would mean that the production will stop or reduce. And then we will do the underground mining and get the capacity back. The state government was aligned with us on that. And in that basis, we participated in the auction. But there were some changes in the regulations during... the auction time as well as after that. And as a consequence, the penalties on the MDPA, which is the minimum that you need to produce to comply with the regulations, the penalty increased and also the flexibility that we were supposed to get because we had to go underground was not given to us after that. Though the fact that we needed to go underground and we couldn't mine at that level on an open-cast basis was validated by the Indian Bureau of Mines as well. But it reached a stalemate where we did not get the clearance that we needed, particularly from the centre, because the state and the centre had different points of view on this. And the solution suggested was then to return the mine, surrender it so that we are not liable for the penalties which would have always come on us. So that's why we decided to surrender the mine. And what is reflected as a one time of about 500 crores is the cost of that surrender. And that is better than running the mine as it is today with significant penalties if you can't produce at a certain level, which we couldn't produce for technical reasons. So it is more to solve a potentially lingering problem and move on.

Thank you.

There is a chat question I saw which I think we need clarification to give. It says that the government funding will not be there until the start of the proposed plant in the UK and therefore how much will be the inflow. I think I want to clarify here that once the grant funding is, once our spending is done the grant funding is reset every quarter which is Whatever we spend in a quarter, the reimbursement of 40% of that as part of the grant will be given to us in the following quarter. So it's not that Tata Steel will fund the entire 1.25 million tons and then the government gives us the grant. So it is as per milestones that has been agreed and as per the process, every quarter when we complete the spend, we submit the reports, gets validated and gets reimbursed.

Thank you. Thank you, everybody. With this, we will end the call and look forward to connecting with all of you again next quarter. Thank you.