This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

Technoprobe Spa U/Adr
11/10/2025
Good evening and thank you for joining us. Together with Stefano Beretta, our CFO, I will go through 2025 nine-month results and guidance for the last quarter of this year. As usual, Q&A session will follow at the end of the presentation. The results achieved in the third quarter are aligned with the guidance shared in August and on a sequential basis have been affected by, first, The upside coming from the consumer campaign and the long tail of the AI campaign we had in the second quarter. Second, the lower contribution from BIS, whose results were in line with first quarter 2025 for seasonality reason. Looking at different market segments, First, the artificial intelligence is performing exceptionally well, confirming an extremely strong trend through the last quarter of 2025 and in 2026. We maintain our leading position in testing lodging chips this year and we expect to confirm this positioning also next year. Second, the consumer exposed markets continue to show modest growth also in the third quarter As discussed in our previous call, we believe the real boost will come from the adoption of AGI. Third, the automotive and industrial segments confirm a weaker performance with industrial performing slightly better than automotive. This trend should improve in the last quarter of the year as a result of a stabilization in automotive markets. Trends rose in the last month of the year make us confident that we will exceed the growth target for 2025, both in terms of revenues and margins, introducing a very positive outlook for 2026, particularly for the first half. We have been asked by our clients to support the high growth they expect for the next year, and we are projecting a manufacturing expansion plan to double the capacity in the next 24 months. Now I will turn it over to Stefano Beretta, who will provide more details on our figures.
Good evening and thank you for joining us. As you may have read in our press release, revenues in the third quarter were 140.7 million euro, close to the high end of our guidance. and registering a decrease of 3.5% compared to the same quarter of prior year, with a sequential decrease of 16.6% compared to the second quarter of 2025. It's worth to remind you that on a sequential base, the registered decrease is related to an important campaign that entirely came in the second quarter of 2025. together with the cyclicality of the EIS business, usually showing peaks in the first half of the year. Gross profit decreased at 4.6%, compared to the same period of 2024, for an amount of 56.7 million euro, representing a 40.3% margin. On the contrary, the EBITDA increased at 15%, compared to the third quarter of 2024, up to €39.8 million, representing a 28.2% margin at the mid-range guided during our prior call. Moving to the year-to-date figures, total revenues were close to €467 million, with an year-on-year increase of 20.6%. Gross profit was €207.3 million, 29.5% higher compared to the same period of 2024, and representing a margin of 44.4%. EBITDA closed at 146.1 million, up 53.3% compared to the same period of 2024, and representing a margin of 31.3%. For the completeness of information and comparison purposes, it's worth to remind that all the above figures include a new perimeter of consolidation, inclusive of the contribution of the AES-TEC that was acquired on May 27, 2024, then present for four months only in the same period of 2024. And if I may add, so the AES-TEC contributed to Technoprobe's revenue and the BIDA for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, for $104.7 million and $13.2 million, respectively, and inclusive of approximately $3 million of US organization charges related to the Santa Clara operation shutdown. On this page, you can see a summary comparison between the financials at the end of the nine months, 2024 and 2025. Just to comment that further revenue year-on-year increase was mostly driven by the change of perimeters, as already mentioned, including NDIS inclusion partially upset by Santa Clara shutdown for approximately 48 million, in addition to an organic growth of 44 million, largely sustained by artificial intelligence volumes, as well as a soft recovery of the consumer segment, all of them partially mitigated by the weakness in automotive and industrial. The mentioned growth components have been partially offset, in addition, by the FX headwind for approximately €12.5 million. In fact, the revenues expressed at the cost of currency, so using the same FX rate of the 9-month 2024, would have been approximately €12.5 million higher than reported revenues. meaning a 2.5% unfavorable impact with a nine months average rate at 1.119 compared to 1.087 for the same period of 2024. On a gross profit level, the increase in the margin from 41.4 to 44.4, as already mentioned in our prior press releases confirm once again the recovery efficiency in our production processes together with the operating leverage that our business model allows us when certain volumes are achieved. All of these impacts have more than compensated the increase of the depreciation following the investments in fixed assets we made during the latest months to expand our capacity and increase the automation. The gross profit, again, at cost and currency, would have been approximately 9 million euro higher by using the nine months 24 average rate, bringing the margin above 45%. Consistently, the EBITDA reflected the same trend, showing an increase in the margin, benefiting also from the savings attributable to the US organization, and even including the negative Forex impact for approximately 8.1 million. Finally, let's have a look at the net financial position. It is up for approximately 24 million compared to the end of June, while the variance in the nine months of the year is mainly attributable to 114 million generated through the operating activities, 26 million generated by the sales of the Santa Clara building, more than offset by 51 million absorbed by the investment of the period, 32 million absorbed by the purchase of treasury shares according to the buyback program. 20 million absorbed by the acquisition of the remaining minority stake in EUA, now 100% owned. 7 million absorbed by the acquisition of a minority stake in industry service INC, so a company listed in Taiwan's emerging stock market, where we have a slightly more than 9% stake. And finally, $23 million theoretically absorbed by the unrealized effects impact on the foreign currency bank accounts. Moving to the Q4 guidance, so as said during the latest capital market day and during also the latest press releases, we confirm once again the trajectory. for the organic meat single-digit growth in our reference market on a yearly basis, together with a consistent strengthening of the profitability with increasing volumes and confirmed market share until the year end. That said, the fourth quarter of the year is expected to show the following figures, also impacted again by an expected deterioration of the US dollar, as you can see on the right side of the chart. against the euro so revenue to be about 160 million plus minus three percent gross margin in the range of 46 plus minus two percent and the abita margin in the range of 34.7 plus minus two percent this is all i have so thanks everyone for your attention now we can move to the q a session
Thank you to the speakers today. We now have an opportunity for questions. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please use the raise hand function on your screen or for those dialing in, it's star nine on your keypad. Once your name is announced, please unmute your line. State your company name before asking your question. Thank you. The first question today comes from Andrea Todeschini. Please go ahead, Andrea.
Good evening, everyone. Can you hear me correctly? Yes, we can. Perfect. So my first question would be if you can share any details over the qualification process for HBM products with your clients and if we could expect any HBM related revenue to already happen in the first half of 2026. And my second question would be recently the competitor of yours actually reported you know, being well advanced in the qualification process with some clients operating within the AI logic segment. And I was wondering if you could anticipate this to have any impact on your market share, even in the first half of the next year. Thank you.
Thank you for asking. So let's start from the HBM qualification progress. So right now we... As mentioned also in the previous call, we were engaging with all the HBM players that time for qualification. And the status right now is that we are basically being qualified by one of them already. And so we are going to start slowly and I can explain why, but we are going to start slowly to see some business next year from this customer. And for the other two players, we are in the final phase of qualification and we expect to complete the qualification by the first half of next year. As far as the business, I can tell you that It's not an on-off situation, but here, as we also mentioned before, we are coming to this market with some new technologies, so leveraging from our SoC experience. And the concept here is that the HBM, starting from the 4 and probably the next generation as well, will be more complex and more and more, and we require technologies similar to the SOC technologies that we already mastered. So the reason why I'm telling you this, because you don't have to expect that we will start immediately to get a lot of market share, but it will be a transition phase, of course. And our expectation is that Of course, the new technology that can reach much higher complexity will be adopted in the future. For the other question about the competitor, especially in the AI segment, So I can confirm that we are still leading the market and actually the AI is one of the biggest segment for us, accounting for 35 to 40% of our total revenue this year. And we expect numbers like 45 to 50% next year. of our total revenue. So this means that we are still a very strong player. And actually, we also see that we are starting to have opportunities in some area where in the past was not required very advanced technology like the custom ASICs. which are still related to AI, but not as complex as GPUs, for example. But what is happening is that also these custom ASICs are starting to be more complex. And typically in the past, these type of devices were tested with legacy technologies like Cobra. So vertical technologies, non-MEMS. But with the increasing of the complexity, we also here, we see a very big opportunity. Actually, we are already penetrating some of the markets for this type of business because of the increasing complexity. So basically, I still think we are in a very strong position here.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Welcome.
Thank you. The next question comes from Giovanni Salvetti. Please, go ahead, Giovanni.
Hello, guys. Can you hear me well? Yes. Hello, thanks for taking my questions. I have mainly one on the expansion in the manufacturing capacity that you mentioned. You said that you want to double the manufacturing capacity in the next 24 months. Is that right? So the first question related to this is, what is the capacity utilization as of today? And if you can just give us a flavor of how much capex should we expect in order to double the capacity? And if this, in a way, manufacturing capacity expansion is just for the logic testing, or if it also includes the volumes you see coming in HBM. Thank you very much.
Thank you. OK. I will start to answer about the capacity. So yes, we are planning to double the capacity, both for SOC and including our plans for the memory business. And it's a very aggressive plan. We don't have, of course, our business, we don't have orders for the next two years, of course, but we have a very strong indication from all the main customers and including new customers coming from the memory side to prepare, to be very, very well prepared about and have a much, much larger capacity. So that's why we are doing this right now. To answer to your question about the utilization, we are about 90% of capacity. So we are pretty full, of course. And for the CAPEX, I will let Stefano Beretta to give you more figures.
Yes, thank you, Stefano. So as you mentioned correctly, the expansion of the capacity is now a requirement. We cannot wait further. We are already working on that. thanks to the investment we're bringing into the company already since the latest few months. And so that will allow us to cover all the customer needs in the next few months, especially for the first half of 2026, when we expect an interesting peak of volumes. Given the increasing expectation we have for 2026 and 2027, and overall for the coming future, The capacity needs to be increased again and again. We have currently a plan, a double plan, to be honest. We are still evaluating. One solution can bring more investments for approximately 40 to 50 million euro. And the other plan is even higher to increase the capacity by building a completely new factory for an investment of more than 100 million. So both of them have different risks, different investment size and different timing. But we believe that by securing our production plan in the next 18 to 24 months will be the most safe approach for us. So when we hit gradually, this increase is starting almost immediately in the next few months. CapExport 2026 will be hit by this new investment.
Can I maybe touch on this, on the investments in capacity? Will they mostly be in Italy? Because if I remember correctly, some time ago, you actually bought an area of 50,000 square meters, like the ex-Beton Villa area around... you know, where you are at the moment in Italy? Is that where the new capacity is going to be or it's going to be more spread out across countries?
You will remember, Giovanni, so that area was part of the plan we started already a few months ago. This is one of the solutions we are evaluating. It's not yet confirmed because we are evaluating, as mentioned, different scenarios. But for sure, this is part of the plan. And as you mentioned, Italy is currently the preferred scenario. Of course, our quarter and the vast majority of our production is currently based in Italy. And we are currently looking for internal solution.
Yeah, typically, just to add some information, now our production flow, we We have what we call a front-end. And front-end for us is really the needle manufacturing, probe head manufacturing. This type of operation we call is our front-end. And the back-end for us would be like final certification or final assembly. What we typically keep in Italy, and we consider this the core technology with the core IP, the core know-how, is the front end, all the processes in the front end area. For the back end, which is more related to the, can be related also to repair, customer service of final assembly certification, we have the tendency also to spread this type of operation around the world. For the capacity, so the core of the increase will be definitely in Italy. but we will also have to invest on the back end on the other side, outside Italy. And the other thing I like to mention here is that something that I consider, and we also said this in previous calls, I consider, I think we have some advantages here compared to other players. in expanding the capacity because we are highly vertical integrated and we can build most of the critical equipment by ourselves. So this is really a key point in containing the cost of the increase in this capacity because Basically, also for an equipment, we were going to buy parts. We're going to assemble the equipment and we are going to be the one doing the software. So we can expand our capacity containing the costs, so very cost effective, and also in a shorter time. Because again, we just have to bypass. And then we can manage the supply chain in a better way.
OK. It's all very clear. Thank you very much, and well done, guys.
Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from Alberto Jegra. Please go ahead, Alberto.
Can you hear me?
Yeah.
Okay. Good evening, everybody. Alberto from Equita. My first question is on 2026. You just mentioned the positive feelings for the first half. Can you give us more color in particular on what do you expect by the end market in this first part of 2026? Then on the ASIC side, looking at the AI space next year, do you expect some, let's say, balanced growth between the GPU and ASIC or still largely driven by the GPU segment? And the last one on the OPEX side, because this four-quarter guidance is pointing to a much lower level of OPEX compared to the previous quarter. So can we consider this as a good starting point for the quarter of 2026? Thank you.
Thank you, Alberto. On 2026, you know, we just can give you a trend rather than a concrete guidance on the numbers, but this is based on conversation, high-level conversation we had with our customer, our best customers, the biggest customers. What we are seeing is that the ramp up of their volumes is getting close to arrive, and we expect, let me say, a full 2026 in the range, like a double mid-double-digit growth for the full year 2026, probably more exposed to the first half of the year, given several campaigns that will hit our volumes in Q1 and Q2. For a full year, the rough estimate we can see again is a mid-double-digit growth.
For your question about the ESIC, The answer is that basically, yes. Typically, the AI SoC, let's say, is composed by several chips. And so you have a GPU and then custom ASICs that are basically the way this GPU is communicating with the external board. And then you have HBM around. So that is the whole system. So the answer is yes, the three things, basically these three types of chips are going together. Okay, with GPU, we'll always have ASICs around and HBM, or even more than one. So the ratio basically is not changing too much. Okay, the architecture is not changing too much about this system. What is really changing, as I said before, is that now, before, only the GPU was the most complex chip, which was requiring the most advanced pro-car technology. ASIC and HVM could be tested by other technologies. So what is changing for the future is ASIC is becoming much, much more complex, requiring advanced technology, and HVM is following the same trend. So this is, it's very interesting for us, even though they say the ratio, the total ratio between the GPU ASIC and HVM would be pretty much the same, but it's changing the way that they're going to be tested ASIC and HVM. So that is the opportunity. Is this answering to your question?
Yeah, yeah. I had also one on the OPEX side.
Yeah, the OPEX, sorry. Sorry, can you repeat the question for the office? Sorry.
Yeah, because your four-quarter guidance is suggesting a lower level of OPEX compared to the previous quarters. So just wondering if this level of OPEX could be a good reference point, at least for the first part of 2026.
Yes, thank you. That's correct. So as I mentioned, probably in other situations, when our revenues exceed 160 million, 170 million per quarter, the operating leverage comes in very aggressively. So we have a lot of benefits from the operating leverage. And if Q1 2026 is expected to be higher than Q4 2025, the operating cost percentage will be lower than the prior quarter, the current quarter. So this is what we expect. And by the way, if the trend is confirmed on 2026 and 2027 again, We expect that we will reach our target that we show in our capital market day probably one year earlier than expected. So we show with 2028 for our target model. We expect to reach them both in terms of revenue and profitability already in 2027. This is why we absolutely need to increase our capacity.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Alberto. The next question comes from Harry Blacklock. Please, the floor is yours.
Hi there, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. First is just to clarify on the capacity ramp. I'm wondering whether you could give a bit more color around how much of that new capacity you think will be online by the end of 2026, whether it will be kind of front or back end loaded at all.
Thank you. So it's difficult to say exactly how much will be the capacity in one year time from now. What we can say is that we're already working to increase the capacity. So the double capacity will not be one off, one day switch to double, but it will be gradual. We have already room enough to gradually increase the automation and to gradually give spaces to new technologies, especially HPM and other feature we are introducing into the company. So we are already in a position to start increasing the capacity through the year. We do not expect to arrive in a critical situation. And more important is that the increase of capacity is not only driven by new buildings and new equipment, but will be driven also by internal efficiency, for which we are already working to reduce time of a certain phases of our production like certification like other phases that currently still shows some inefficiency internal inefficiency that if resolved can bring automatically more capacity without adding any person or any additional investment
Got it. Super clear. My next question is just around the HBM qualifications. And I wonder, I know it's kind of difficult to give a kind of revenue quantification on these things, but I wonder if you can give some kind of indication as to the revenue opportunity next year. It sounds like it's kind of relatively small volume to start off with. and then what that could potentially be if you got qualified with all three players and then kind of qualified more widely in the next generation HBM?
Yes, so probably what we can expect for next year, and again, it's not an on-off situation, but it's a transition to different technologies and they can take a yes, of course, in the process. So, but what we expect for next year is about $10 million revenue. Okay. And so see the small, but the same time at the other players will finish the qualification and they will start probably with some NPIs as well, new product introduction. So we would like to be conservative for now, but the good thing is that we see very positive feedback. And then if as soon as we have a better, let's say, forecast, better indication from customers, we will share with you.
Great. That's super helpful. And one last quick question, if I may. Just all of this capacity kind of expansion and the growth expectations over the next few years, is that betting in any AI adoption in the consumer segment and kind of AI, smartphone, PC-driven upgrade cycle? Or would that be incremental upgrade from your current expectations?
Uh, actually we, uh, AI is, uh, we see the AI expansion across the board. So it's, it's not only for the high-end GPUs, but, uh, for, uh, also the edge AGI, what they call AGI is, uh, is coming, uh, pretty strong as well. So for us, that's why. consider that for the next year, probably the weight of the AI in our business would be almost 50%, 45 to 50%. So that is not only GPUs, of course. It means that there are a lot of applications that are considered AI and can be even in the automotive space. And that the old the whole AI segment will account for almost 50% for us.
Got it. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Have a nice evening.
Thank you. The next question comes from Oliver Wong. Please, the floor to you.
Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on ASICs. Currently, a lot of the ASICs chips are using older technologies, as you said. and um they are moving into uh mems as you know um but the uh the the chip suppliers who provide the older technologies they're also kind of you know fighting for share in mem so i was wondering market share wise are you confident that you would be able to take the majority of this share as ASICs move into MEMS? And then sort of a similar sort of market share question on whether you have any target for what you can get within HBM chip testing. Yeah, thank you.
Okay. For ASICs, we think we are in a very strong position. because we started, we were one of the first company introducing MEMS, Vertical MEMS, that was back in 2009. And right now we are developing technology for the next five to 10 years already. Okay, so we think we are, as far as technology, we are still a leader in the market. And we have also, a lot of IPs as well. So all our technologies are very well protected by IP. So we feel very confident that to have the right solution for these players and to have superior performance for them. For the HVM, so I mean, it's, again, it's very difficult to, uh, to predict how fast would be the penetration, but I like, uh, to, to, to tell you this, uh, the analogy, the analogy that, uh, happened many, many years ago for the SOC market. So I'm talking about 20 years ago. Okay. when the Cantilever was the Cantilever technology, not even the vertical, was the number one technology in the world. And the number one company was Serprobe, and I don't know if you remember this name, and number two was Probe Technology with Cantilever. So these two companies disappeared in a few years. So, and because a new technology came along, that was the vertical technology. So here, for the HBM, right now, what is currently in use by many other players, pro card players, are micro cantilever, okay? So we are proposing a technology that is not micro cantilever, but is based on our SOC, vertical MEMS technology. So our ambition, of course, is to gain a consistent and pretty good market share in the memory space. But again, the speed of this adoption right now is a little bit early to tell you how fast it will be. In case, again, if we go back to what you just said, it took several years. before the vertical was number one and the cantilever was almost zero. Took us several years for that transition. Here can be several years, but again, depends also on the design of the new HPM, eventually five or six, will depend. If at that point, the main players will require immediately very complex HPM devices, the adoption can be faster as well.
Super helpful. Thank you very much. And just to follow up, if I may, on the last call you mentioned about sort of the headwinds on your product shipments to the US, obviously FX, but also tariffs. I was wondering how that has tracked for the prior quarter. What kind of your strategy has been there in terms of whether it be pricing or kind of taking a hit on the cost side for the tariffs? Thank you.
About the strategy on pricing, this is totally independent from the effects movement. Basically, all the customers and the main customer works on different currency compared to Euro. So everything is based on US dollar. And there is no way to make them changing the pricing or accepting any price difference. um, cause it to cause the problem and effects movement. So in that case, we are more working on financial side by using, uh, X coverage, edging, uh, edge accounting, especially depending on the tenant strategy we define. And, um, this is what I can add is that the expectation we had on the effects trend, uh, is already incorporated into our numbers. So the deterioration of the US dollar also in Q4 compared to the prior nine months of the year is already embedded now into our figures. We slightly see an improvement in the US dollar in the latest few days that can get our numbers better at the year-end, but for the moment, we want to be, as always, consistent with a conservative approach. So the numbers we used for effects conversion is disclosed on the last page of the presentation. If that would be better, it would be better for the revenue and profitability, both of them.
Thank you. And Terrence?
Well, tariffs for the moment are not affecting the business in any manner. So for the moment, as mentioned already in our prior course, we have very few components coming into China to the U.S. from the DIA side. So let's say one to two million per quarter. So pretty large. pretty low amount starting from May, June 2026. So the impact on 2025 has been negligible and moreover, they can be recovered. We started already a recovery process because the goods that have been imported from China to the US have been re-exported immediately after the assembly into Asia again. So in that case, you are entitled to ask for a refund of that amount. For the rest of the business, tariffs are currently charged to the customers, so to the importer in the US. And for the moment, they are not affecting directly or indirectly any market share or any price of the product.
Got it. That's super helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Oliver. The next question comes from George Brown. Please go ahead, George.
Yeah, hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, if I may. Just on the capacity expansion, you're saying that this is also supported by your conversation with the memory players, not just logic. I'm wondering if you have a solid indication from these HBM guys that they will take significant volume over 2027 to 2028. I understand you don't have orders today in HBM. because obviously you're still being qualified, but they must be giving you some indication for you to expand this aggressively. So I'm just wondering if you could get some color there. And then just on 2026, I think you talked about mid double digit growth. I'm wondering if we can clarify what that means exactly. Does that mean mid-teens or above 20%, above 30%? Because double-digit growth can mean anything from, I guess, 10% to 99%, depending on how you interpret things. So any color there.
That's it. Got it. So thank you, George. So for the HBM expansion, unfortunately, we would love to have commitment and dedication from our customers, but As you know, this is not the business where you get such type of information. So for the moment, this is all about our expectation and our feeling and our confidence on our products. So when Stefano Felici before mentioned 10 million revenue for 2026 on HBM, This is just to give you the magnitude of the volumes. So 10 million can be 15, can be 20. But out of $800 million revenue, $850 million for 2026 is a very negligible amount. So don't take this amount as a pointed on your agenda. But this is just to give you the magnitude of what we expect from HBI 2026. Even if we want to be prepared for biggest volumes in the coming years. So again, no indication from the customers about volumes, but this is all about be prepared. And about your second point, again, mid, so double digit grow means between in the range of 14 to 16%. So again, we would love to be 99% growth, but this is not the case. We expect the semiconductor business, semiconductor space to grow 2026 and 2027 in the range of 10%, 9% to 10%. We expect to grow between 14% and 16% on a yearly basis, meaning already beating the market. Okay, brilliant. Thank you so much, guys.
Thank you. The next question comes from Fabio Pavan. Please go ahead, Fabio.
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my two questions. The first one is on the business. I was wondering if you are appreciating already some impact from AI in the consumer market or if you believe it's still too early. or this could be significant in the numbers. And the second question is, please follow up on the capex you're expecting to make. We should expect the amount you were referring before to impact already 26 numbers or to be split between 26 and 27. Thank you.
Thank you, Noam. In the consumer market, and typically we're talking about the AGI, it's already a reality. It's not something new. Our numbers are already incorporating AGI.
About the CapEx expansion, For the moment, we don't have a right number for 2026 and 2027, because we still have to decide which scenario to be applied. And that will be a decision of the board of directors in the next few meetings. But I can tell you, 2026, even if we take the more conservative scenario, capex could be in the range of 100 million, including the expansion. and all the other equipment for innovation and increase of automation. So we used to do every single year. So in addition to the normal and recurring CapEx investment, again, we expect to add additional 50 to 100 million, depending on the scenario we will choose.
Thank you.
Thank you, Fabio. The next question comes from Domenico Gilotti. Please go ahead, Domenico.
Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Okay. I have a question about profitability. You are ending 2025 at almost 35% EBITDA margin. but there are a few moving parts that are going to 2026. So if you can elaborate a little bit more because you have a strong operating leverage, but also probably some learning curve due to the ramp up of HBM and ASICs and also on the capacity ramp up. So can you give a sense of what are the driving forces for profitability?
Well, the driver is absolutely volumes. So when you go up with volumes, I mentioned again, the operating leverage will be more and more impacting. It's still early to say which will be the profitability for 2026. But you can appreciate the growth trend we had in 2025, especially in the quarters like the Q4, where the revenue is in the range of 160 million euro. So it's in the region of 35%. If we expect, as I mentioned, a middle double digit growth, you can make your math compared to your portal and you can see we can reach the mentioned 40% EBITDA very soon. So as I mentioned in 2027, we will be at that level. Even including the DIS business that as everybody knows is a bit diluting compared to the ESOC standard business. So even including that, the company overall profitability will arrive very soon in the region of 40%.
So just to follow up, so the HPM ramp up or the ramp up of capacity is something, okay, affecting, but not really disrupting too much this equation.
For sure, not next year. And for sure, again, every new business, every new product, we will face some inefficiency at the beginning. So to be with a feet on the ground in 2026 and 2027, we could expect some inefficiency due to the ramp up of new products. But again, overall, The remaining part of the business, considering it will cover the most part of the revenue, that will be a very good profit as already demonstrated in our history. Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Antonella Frongillo. Please go ahead, Antonella.
Hi, good evening. Can you hear me? Yes. Yes. Okay, thank you. I have one question on 2027. Just to double check, are you anticipating your target model to 2027 on profitability or also on the top line?
Both of them.
Okay, so in this case, basically, if we consider your four-quarter guidance and your expectation of a growth for next year between 14 and 16, you expect 20% growth broadly for 2027. Could you... Clarify again how much of that is from would be from HPM and also if you are embedding some recovery on the automotive sector.
But 2027 is a really too far from us for us to make some detailed explanation detailed guidance on that, especially on the segments by segments. What we see now. Even the conversation, the high-level conversation we had with customers is that the recovery is expected across all segments in different parts, in different timing. But overall, if we look at two years time, all of the segments will grow compared to the current level they have, especially that we expect they will resolve their inventory difficulties they are currently showing. But it's really too early to say in 2027, which will be the biggest segment to grow. Of course, AI will play a significant role again, but will be really a cross reference for every single market. So the contamination of AI will be embedded in every single segment.
And the very last one is, is this expectation at the current level of currencies or are they already considering the potential worsening for 2026?
This is not my guess, but I'm looking at the reports from the various banks and what they are considering now. Is the US dollar weakness still affecting the last quarter? Someone is expecting the US dollar arriving at 1.2, someone a little less, 1.18. So overall, this is the trend they are showing. And even in 2026, they are still guessing, they're still projecting a weakness, even if still uncertain, depending on the Federal Reserve of Tax and any other big events impacting the effects. We are in a geopolitical situation, very difficult to predict. And every news on that will affect the US dollar movement against Europe. So what we can say is to be careful in our projections. That's why in our projections, we are considering A near end for the USD on 1.2 in line with the major banks estimates and a little more weakness in the beginning of 2026. Then going further, it's pretty unreliable to say to make other provisions.
Okay, very clear. Many thanks.
Thank you. I will now hand back to the speakers for any final comments before bringing this presentation to a close. Please go ahead, Stefano.
Thank you, everyone. And thank you for all the key questions. Very helpful also for us to explain what is happening and hope to hear from you in the next