Technip Energies Nv

Good afternoon. This is the conference operator.

Welcome and thank you for joining the full year 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and 1 on your telephone keypad. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Philip Lindsay, Head of Investor Relations of Technip Energies. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Elissa. Hello and welcome to Technip Energies financial results for full year 2023. On the call today, our CEO, Arnaud, will provide an overview of our 2023 performance and achievements, followed by Bruno, who will provide more details on our financial results and outlook. Then Arnaud will come back to share with you more on the outlook and strategic priorities for 2024. We'll then open up the call for questions. Before we start, I would encourage you to take note of the forward-looking statements on slide two. I will now pass the call over to Arnaud.

Thank you, Phil, and hi, everyone. Before discussing our results and 2023 highlights, I want to say a few words about who we are at Technip Energies to remind you of our unique value proposition. Today, we are just three years old as an independent company, and we've come a long way since our creation. We are a robust platform delivering sustainable returns through our best-in-class margins and cash flows, our asset-light business model, and our capacity to invest to drive further competitive advantage. We are a leader, both in traditional markets, such as LNG and ethylene, and we are leading from the front in net-zero markets, including carbon capture, sustainable chemistry, and clean hydrogen. And we have the right skills to deliver what the world needs, our core engineering skills, technology and execution capabilities are absolutely in demand. And we know how to scale and industrialize from lab through to EPC. In essence, at Technip Energies, we enable net zero solutions. Turning to the highlights, 2023 represents an outstanding year in terms of safety, profitability and others, as well as for the delivery of strategic objectives to facilitate future growth. Our operating results are excellent with EBIT margins at the top of our upgraded guided range, which reflect relentless focus on performance and discipline and strongly endorse our hybrid model. TPS delivered more than 40% growth in EBIT while project delivery profitability remained high thanks to strong execution and project closeouts. Commercially, we secured €10 billion of orders in a year, with intake exceeding revenues by 70%. This included the major NFS award in Qatar for project delivery, as well as a diverse range of TPS orders. We also set out to drive early leadership in net zero markets through the launch of differentiated technologies, products, and solutions, which provide 10 with additional avenues for long-term growth. Based on the strength of these results and confidence in our outlook, we propose a 10% increase in annual dividend and are launching a 100 million euro share buy-by program, which Bruno will elaborate on in his section. Moving to the operational highlights, our portfolio of projects and TPS are both performing well. In the fourth quarter, we achieved startup on Longson in Vietnam and fully handled over our Coral floating LNG in Mozambique following a contracted period of services activity. The success on Coral is a perfect example of why customers choose TEN to deliver their most important developments. This iconic project reached first production on time, on budget, and is now producing above nameplate capacity. In TPS, we've completed two canopy carbon capture pilot units for customers in Canada in hard-to-abate sectors, mining, and cement. The pilots seek to validate the solution and could lead to large-scale adoption to decarbonize their facilities. I will return to the excellent commercial momentum that we are seeing carbon capture in my outlook later.

Moving to strategic accomplishments.

Last year, at this time, I laid out three key objectives for 2023, and I am pleased to report that we've met them. First, we set out to sustain leadership in LNG. And we've achieved this through cementing our position on the world's largest LNG development in Qatar, while selectively positioning for additional awards during 2024 and beyond.

Second, we positioned to grow TPS.

While the 2023 performance speaks for itself, we also reinforced the medium-term potential through M&A, including the acquisition of Procesium, which expands our lab network and enhances our ability to develop proprietary technologies in sustainable chemistry. And through organic initiatives as well, including the deployment of Etherness by 10 with leading customers in the U.S. to prove the technology at industrial scale. Third, we prepared for our future. through development of innovative products and solutions that will serve to break some of the cost barriers required for nascent industries to take off. This includes the launch of Canopy by 10, the incubation of Reju, an innovative textile-to-textile regeneration company, and the creation of Rely, an integrated technology and solutions company for green hydrogen and power-to-X markets. While these markets are maturing at different speeds, early commercial traction for our new offerings is highly encouraging, notably in carbon capture, and these initiatives create potential for market leadership and major sources of future earnings. The achievements of 2023 further validate the strength of our hybrid model. and confirm why the combination of a longer cycle project delivery business with the shorter cycle technology products and services segment drives robust business performance. EPS has delivered an exceptional growth with segment revenue and EBIT both up by approximately 40%. And this success has notably influenced the mix of our profits with TPS representing some 37% of the total EBIT of our two segments. Project delivery has continued to deliver strong execution, as evidenced by EBIT margins at close to 8%, and commercial success has driven segment backlog up to 30% year over year.

And this can be reinforced with very solid

sizable prospects that are on track for award in 2024, thereby securing a positive outlook for our largest segment. Beyond the financial benefits, our asset-light hybrid model provides resiliency for the external market environment, as well as commercial differentiation and flexibility. Our proprietary technologies reinforce both the attractiveness of our offering and our discipline and selectivity when assessing prospects. And the clear direction for TEN is to continue to accelerate on TPS, which will optimize the benefits of our hybrid model over time. Before passing on to Bruno, let me update you on our sustainability journey, which is increasingly being recognized in the market. On our people pillar, we achieved strong safety results that confirmed TEN's leading industry performance. And in addition, the importance of human capital in our business cannot be understated now or in the future. And investing in our talent remains a priority. In 2023, we more than doubled the number of learning hours and we are on track to reach 40 hours per year per employee in 2025. On climate and environment, we made solid progress towards our 2030 net zero target for scope one and scope two emissions, reducing by 28% when compared to 2021. In addition, and as promised, all of our technology and innovation programs are now dedicated to sustainability themes to strengthen our competitive positioning in new markets. All these achievements are thanks to the drive and commitment of all 10 employees who can be proud that our progress is being recognized as evidenced by notable improvements across the leading rating agencies. I will now pass the call over to Bruno.

Thanks, Arnaud, and good afternoon, everyone. turning to the highlights of our financial performance for 2023. Adjusted recurring EBITs was 445 million, a similar level to the prior year. Margins at 7.4% increased 40 basis points year-over-year and were at the upper hand of the guided range. The continued strength in EBIT generation is a testament to our solid execution and strong momentum in TPS. In addition, free cash conversion from EBIT was very high, and we generated over 540 million of free cash flow excluding working capital. Adjusted diluted EPS at 1.63 euro per share, reduced by 9% year-over-year, impacted by non-recurring items and higher non-controlling interest, partially offset by higher net interest income. Adjusted order intake was more than 10 billion, significantly higher year-over-year, and equivalent to a book-to-bill of 1.7. This contributed to a 23% increase in backlog to 15.7 billion. Net cash at year-end was 2.8 billion. In summary, the collective performance of our teams has delivered a very strong outcome in 2023. Turning to our segment reporting and starting with project delivery, where our 2023 performance demonstrates sustained excellence in business execution. The year-over-year picture sees reduced revenues, principally due to the exit from Arctic Energy 2. However, we expect 2023 revenues to reflect the trough of project delivery with this trend orally evident given the sequential growth in the second half over the first. Margins at 7.8% are in line with the record performance of 2022, reflecting robust execution and portfolio maturity with projects in late phase and closeout. Following a period of strong order intake, the project portfolio will naturally trend towards a more balanced blend of early and later stage projects, bringing margins to a more normalized level. Finally, backlog is up 29% year-over-year, equivalent to 3.4x 2023 segment revenues. As Arnaud will explain, we are positive on our outlook for new awards, which can further strengthen our visibility and support the revenue trajectory

towards our medium-term targets.

Turning to technology products and services, TPS delivered outstanding financials with revenue growth of 38% year-over-year and EBIT improving by 43%. This performance was driven by three main factors, high service volumes, particularly in sustainable fuels and decarbonization markets, strong front-end engagement and consulting across energy transition markets, and growth in licensing and proprietary equipment, notably for ethylene. Higher volumes and the mixed benefit from higher technology and product revenues delivered 30 basis points of margin accretion year-over-year to 9.6%. Turning to orders, Despite fewer larger awards when compared to the prior year, underlying order momentum was positive, benefiting from a broad range of decarbonization services and studies, which sustained backlog at a very healthy 1.8 billion. In summary, an outstanding year for TPS, with record top line and margin expansion, in line with our strategy to grow our accretive business segment. The outlook remains positive for 2024, and we are well on track to reach our medium-term targets for this segment.

Turning to other key performance items and beginning with the income statement.

R&D spend at 62 million, equivalent to 1% of revenue, is 24% higher year-over-year and consistent with our strategy for targeted investment to enhance our net zero portfolio. Higher global interest rates are benefiting our net financial income, which at 86 million was a boon to earnings. Lastly, on the P&L, effective tax rate was 29.9% and consistent with the top end of the 2023 guidance range. The tax rate was impacted by the P&F settlement in H1 Excluding this non-recurring item, the underlying full-year tax rate is 28.2%. Moving to the balance sheet, where the picture is solid and supportive of a balanced capital allocation, as I will elaborate on later. Growth cash of 3.6 billion is significantly exceeding the net contract liability, which As a reminder, it consists of future project costs, future margins, and contingencies. Existing projects in backlog plus expected awards during 2024 will continue to contribute to this differentiated capital structure. Finally, shareholders' equity has grown by over 50% since company inception in Q1 2021.

reflecting the consistent strength of our operational and financial performance. Diving now into cash flows and starting with the 2023 view.

Free cash flow, excluding working capital, was $543 million, with conversion from EBIT significantly more than 100%. This highlights the benefits of our asset-like business model, It really emphasizes the ongoing strength of operational execution and also reflects the positive impact of interest income. As I stated last quarter, the working capital outflow in the year reflects the balance of the portfolio, with several projects in their later stages, as well as the cash deconsolidation and transfer relating to our orderly exit from the Arctic Energy 2 project. Working capital trends can be lumpy due to the inherent nature of our long-cycle project business. As I signaled at the half year, we expect some improvement in working capital trends over the next 12 to 18 months, with these trends starting to materialize in Q4. We end the period with $3.6 billion of cash and cash equivalent. Let's now zoom out and take a three-year perspective of our cash flows. where the trends are very positive and consistent. In 2023, we generated 3 euros of free cash flow per share. And cumulatively, we have generated more than 7 euros per share since 2021. Furthermore, our free cash conversion from adjusted recurring EBIT has averaged 96% over this period. This speaks to the quality of our operational execution, our contractual discipline, and our relentless focus on cash and treasury management. The normalization of global interest rates is also providing a fillip to our free cash profile due to the interest income we generate on our cash balance. The impact of working capital on a longer-term basis should be about neutral, and this is clearly evidenced in the cumulative impact of working capital on our cash flow since 2021, which is negligible at just 39 million. This is again reflective of the execution strength and portfolio quality. In 2024, and subject to no major change in global interest rates, we could expect to convert 100% of our adjusted recurring EBIT into cash. And this provides us

with the flexibility for an effective capital allocation strategy.

Turning accordingly to capital allocation and shareholder returns, Technip Energies is committed to delivering long-term sustainable growth and attractive returns to shareholders through a balanced approach to capital allocation. This includes maintaining a sustainable dividend with potential for growth over time, disciplined organic and inorganic investment in growth, and preserving an investment-grade balance sheet. Based on the strength of our 2023 results, confidence in our outlook, we propose a 10% annual dividend increase, which is subject to approval at the annual shareholder meeting in May. With this increase, the compounded annual growth since our maiden dividend in 2021 is 13%. In addition to the dividend, supported by a robust financial position, a very solid free cash flow generation, and underlining our confidence in Technip Energy's outlook, we are launching a share buyback program of up to 100 million euros. We intend to cancel up to 70 million of the purchased shares with the balance to fulfill obligations under equity compensation plans. Concluding on this slide with our TSR, total shareholder return since SPIN, which shows significant outperformance versus sector and market indices.

Before handing back to Arnaud to discuss the outlook, I will address the financial guidance for 2024.

For 2024, we confirm expectations for EBIT margins in the 5% to 7.5% range. The consistency and quality of our portfolio and strength in execution fully supports our margin outlook. For revenue, we are projecting a range of $6.1 to $6.6 billion. which is well underpinned by our backlog schedule for 2023, plus known work that is not currently in backlog. Regarding effective tax rate, we see a range of 26% to 30%. With this guidance, we are also signaling double-digit EPS growth, reflecting our relentless focus on bottom line. Beyond the implied range of EBIT growth, EPS should also benefit from a materially lower non-controlling interest. And to be clear, potential EPS accretion from the buyback program is not included as part of this view. Last point regarding our medium-term framework that was issued this time last year. Today, we reaffirmed this framework and have republished the slide for your reference within the appendix. I'll now turn the call back to Arnaud for the outlook.

Thank you, Bruno. And turning to the outlook where I want to share with you some of the key themes and trends that we are observing on the market for 2024. First, the last years have served to highlight the continued importance of traditional markets to allow energy affordability while the technologies of the future are maturing. Our customers require reliable execution for their megaprojects, and this favors TEN. Competent resources are in high demand after a period of rising industry activity. Beyond investing and upskilling our human capital, we are promoting solutions that enable us to do more with the same resource base. We also remain highly selective to ensure we work with quality construction partners with a depth of resources to mobilize and to accelerate as required. Second, there is an undeniable trend putting emissions abatement as a new demand being placed on producers and industries to drive sustainable development. This is leading to progressive adoption of decarbonization solutions across traditional and hard-to-abate industries. For example, the next generation of LNG projects will likely include electrification and carbon capture. Also, carbon capture is being considered at scale to decarbonize power generation, hydrogen production, and other industries. And 10 is amongst the most credible execution partners as these developments progress toward investment decisions. Third, cleantech industries have been slower than expected to shape up due to technology and ecosystem maturity, project economics, and policies. The ability to form the ecosystem, build demo plants, scale and industrialize is critical to de-risking these industries. And with the benefit of our technology leadership, proven EPC capabilities, and financial strength, this is exactly what Technip Energy is doing. In summary, one thing I would like you to retain is that to respond to the scale of the net zero challenge together,

we must rise to the challenge of scale. Focusing now on our leadership across key markets, our LNG opportunity set remains robust.

While the permitting moratorium in the U.S. will likely subdue FID activity until after the elections, it is leading to projects outside of the U.S. becoming more certain. In recent months, 10 has been selected on greenfield prospects, which are pending final investment decisions. In addition, we have been awarded a feed on an existing LNG infrastructure for a major decarbonization, de-bottlenecking, and expansion program. Turning to carbon capture, where our commercial success has accelerated since the launch of our CaptureNow platform last summer. we have been selected for two major carbon capture developments in the power sector, which aim to capture more than 4 million tons per annum of CO2. While both prospects are pending FID, it clearly demonstrates the pertinence of TEN for carbon capture at scale. Meanwhile, Canopy by TEN has secured several notable wins, including demo plants in the cement and mining sectors, the C10 unit, as well as studies and feeds for both the C200 and larger-scale projects. Turning to sustainable fuels and SAF, where TEN is a partner of choice for industry leaders across different pathways. Here, for example, our Hummingbird technology is integrated into the world's first alco-to-jet facility at commercial scale with LanzaJet in the U.S. The market is taking shape, as the aviation industry increasingly looks to decarbonize, and we are very active on front-end engagements. Finally, in Ethylene, we continue to lead through decarbonization with greenfield and brownfield prospects in the Middle East and India. In summary, TEN is actively positioned and leading in established and emerging markets. Before concluding, I want to touch on our strategic priorities for 2024. Enabled by TEN's core competencies and differentiated capabilities, we are committed to executing our strategy around three themes. First, winning the medium term is about strengthening our leadership through selectively securing the right prospects in established markets such as LNG as well as net zero solutions. Our positioning ensures a robust outlook for TEN. Second, we will continue on our path of disruptive innovation. This includes delivery of technology demonstration plans that serve to de-risk and validate technologies in view of their commercialization at an industrial scale. And we are also accelerating our digital transformation to enhance our processes, our data architecture, and our digital tools, which are critical to sustain and enhance our execution and performance. And this will lead to a more efficient adoption of AI across our operations. Third, we will continue to form partnerships to enable clean solutions to be deployed at commercial scale. Other strategic partnerships can be expected, and we look forward to sharing more details with you as deals are concluded. We are also investing organically and actively scouting for opportunities that can support the long-term evolution of our TPS segment.

In summary, we have the appetite

and the capacity to invest, and we will continue to do so. And we remain disciplined on our capital investment while creating potential for leadership in growth markets.

In closing, we've delivered a successful 2023, financially and commercially.

We are growing shareholder returns while retaining the flexibility to invest and grow our TPS segment. The strength of our hybrid model is clearly evidenced by our success in 2023. It provides resiliency and differentiation and makes us confident in our outlook. And we are executing on our strategic objectives to drive competitive advantage, strengthen our leadership, and create long-term value for our shareholders. Finally, and before opening for questions, We look forward to welcoming you and many of you at our Capital Markets Day in London in Q4 this year. Details will follow in due course.

With that, let's open the call for questions.

This is the conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. We will pause for a moment as participants are joining the queue. The first question is from Kate O'Sullivan with Citi. Please go ahead.

Hello, thank you for taking my questions and for the presentation. First one on LNG, please. Just looking at your LNG pipeline and specifically Mozambique Area 4, previously you discussed the potential of Coral Norte LNG, a type of carbon coffee for Coral fuel. And in the IOC reporting season, there was some discussion of much larger Ravuna LNG proceeding as a modular concept feed later this year. Any update here would be really useful, please. And secondly, are you seeing any impact of the Middle East conflict on your operations, on your supply chain? Thank you very much.

Okay, thank you for the question.

So, starting with the LNG pipeline. So, in Area 4 and East Africa, because that was the the area of your question. So, Coral Norte, which indeed would be a replicate of Coral South, which has been a great success for us and for ENI. Well, the project has potential for FID in 2024. We follow very closely and we are in close contact with ENI. If FID 2024, it most likely will be towards the end of the year. But yeah, the work for us is progressing in the sense of early engineering work and preparing the groundwork for being able to hit the ground running at the time of the FID. So clearly, there is potential for floating energy in Mozambique in 2024 through Coral Norte, which will be a replicate of Coral South. Elsewhere in Mozambique, well, as you know, we are not involved on the Mozambique LNG with Total Energy, so that's not us, but there is potential beyond Mozambique LNG with other clients, as you know. And on this one, the studies are ongoing, paid studies, should I say, and they are all based on modular designs and trains of, I would say, smaller capacity, but multiple of them, in order to sustain, I would say, the benefit of the modularization, which in this case is ability to access the land, having modules of a size that are such that There are enough choices of yards as potential manufacturers, etc. So clearly, there's potential for more in Mozambique onshore, and the option we are pursuing is absolutely 100% modularized. No question. When it comes to... the situation in the Middle East. So happy to report, obviously for us, we're keeping a very close monitoring on the situation. but happy to report that there are really no impact on our operations in the UAE or in Qatar in particular. What we have observed has been a bit of a spike in the cost of transportation, so containers, for example. Now, we need to put that into perspective. It's not the type of spike that we experienced during the COVID period. There is a spike, but far from the one we experienced during COVID. And we are seeing that things are normalizing and kind of already coming back to normal. So really no major impact on our operations. On the NFV project, for example, In Qatar, I would say the very vast majority of key equipment is already on location, so there is absolutely not any fear of not being able to progress with the project because of the disruption as we know it today. Again, a situation that we are monitoring, but not a high level of anxiety on our end for what we are currently executing and based on the situation as we know it today.

Thanks, Arnaud.

The next question is from Bertrand Hody with Kepler Shubber. Please go ahead.

Yes, hello. Thank you for taking my question. I have two. First, on your order intake outlook, and I know that you generally don't like to make any order intake forecast, but Order intake were around 10 billion euros in 2023. And given the set of opportunity and the quality of it, I'm thinking UAE, UAE CLNG, a third expansion in Qatar. Do you believe you can achieve, let's say, an average of 10 billion euros order intake per year for 2024 and 2025? And the second question relates to CCUS. You indicated that you've been selected for a major CCUS project totaling 4 million tons per annum. In the power sector, those projects are pending final investment decision. Can you give us a rough estimate of the potential value of those four MTPA awards? Thank you.

Thank you, Bertrand. So on the order intake pipelines, we had indeed a really good one into a really good year in 2023. And you are absolutely right to say that we don't like to guide too much or provide a forecast on order intake. But I will answer your question. As you know, we We like quality over quantity. We do know that quantity is important and that you guys are tracking top line the same way that we do. But if we want, and as we absolutely want to be and to remain that very robust platform for project execution, a very robust financial platform for returns to shareholders, able to innovate, able to invest into TPS, the quality will always prevail over quantity. Nonetheless, we are lucky because in the space of our, I would say, traditional industry, being in LNG or being in FLN, where we have leaderships and differentiation and other fields as well, there are qualitative opportunities ahead of us. You name a few of them in the areas that you've listed. I would say whether or not we reach... The potential for reaching 10 billion was there pre-U.S. moratorium on LNG. Now, I'm not sure we will reach the 10 billion. Maybe, maybe not. But I'm very confident that we can actually exceed that. a book to build of one for 2024 and 2025 based on what is out there in the pipeline. And you've not specifically asked about the recent announcement from Qatar that was made by Qatar Energy last Sunday. about NFW. I want to take the opportunity of your question Bertrand to say very clearly that we are active on NFE and NFS which have been awarded. We are not currently active on NFW. This would be way premature. Qatar Energy made an announcement And I would say it is fair to believe that we will start on the prospect. We start with a few months of feed studies before any final investment decision. And we are not yet involved on these early works. We are eager to find out more and eager to engage. Of course, we will be interested, but we know that Our client is also well-known for keeping things competitive, so very strong interest and, of course, well-positioned, but something that is a thing of the future in 2025. On CCUS power sector, we are experiencing – so we've been selected, indeed, no FID yet, but – some projects for which we feel confident. The good news is that the power sector is coming to realize and is committing to decarbonization. And therefore, it's opening, I would say, a new field and a new stream of opportunity for Technip Energies because those projects On all of them, actually, we are above or exceeding the million-tonne per annum of capture, so we're not talking small units. It requires exactly what Technip Energy is capable of delivering in terms of project execution, delivery, and technology integration. So on the two prospects that we are making reference to, just a loan for us that will represent, if they were to reach FID, it will represent another intake anywhere between 2 to 3 billion euros.

Super. Many thanks. You're welcome.

The next question is from Guilherme Levy with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is related to shareholder remuneration. So I was just wondering if you can say a few words on how to think about shareholder remuneration, both GIFDNs and buybacks beyond 2024. Of course, the company has a track record that speaks for itself in terms of GPS hikes. any call or visibility that it can provide to us, and also what needs to happen for the company to be in a position to provide a multi-year guidance on those lines. And then a second question, if I may, if you can just walk us through what can make the company execute revenues at the high versus the low end of the guidance provided for this year. Thank you.

Bruno will take your question on this one.

And I'll complement at the end, maybe.

Yes. Hi, William. Thank you for the question. So on capital allocation, I think first, the starting point is who we are. We are asset-light, as Arnaud mentioned. We have a very strong net cash balance, excellent cash flow generation, which I outlined. And that's also the outcome of selectivity, discipline, and pristine execution. Second, our commitment to create long-term value to our shareholders through a balanced, flexible allocation that you highlighted. So, first, it's going to be also always discipline to retain, preserve balance sheet strength, investment-grade balance sheet. Paying a dividend. That is sustainable, with potential growth over time, as we've seen, from $0.45 to $0.52, $0.52 to $0.57 over three years. But this leaves us with supplemental capital allocation to allocate to grow and create long-term value. This can be done organically. More R&D, what we've done, 24% increase year-over-year, 1% of R&D spent on revenues. Digital data development, building demo open lands, et cetera. This can also be done inorganically to increase our TPS portfolio and offering, and things will be considered. We've started, like the lab of Processium in 2023, and we will continue to look at value creation, potential opportunities. But while we do that, buyback is an option. Opportunistic, given the very low valuation, does not impair in any way our ability to invest, but we will remain disciplined and consider the best long-term value creation driver. So we tend to really become a buy-back machine. There will be value-generating investment, and we are in a very good position given our DNA, our position, our balance sheet, and you should see some acceleration in some of the things I've mentioned going forward. For your second part of your question, about revenue generation. Also, Arnaud highlighted, we are not obsessed by top line. We are obsessed by selectivity, by quality, by execution. And to some extent, you see a growth of top line of a single digit, as indicated by our guidance, but a double digit bottom line growth. So I think that's a bit of a translation of that. Some moving targets, increase in services that can be short-term, that may not all be in backlog. For instance, for project management consultancy, some work awarded are not recognized in backlog, and if service orders are confirmed, then we will deliver. Releases of provisions and variable consideration is also an opportunity. It's also timing of awards. Arnaud mentioned a few awards. We do not control FID. If an award comes in Q2 versus Q4, obviously this will have an impact. So overall, these are some of the drivers. We start the year with a very healthy and quality backlog, which gives us flexibility, visibility. Top line, we'll see an acceleration versus last year, which was a trough, notably in project delivery. We will continue to execute. But again, we are not obsessed. We will, in absolute terms, continue to increase EBIT through this execution and through what we can deliver.

Perfect. Thank you.

The next question is from Jean-Luc Romain with CIC Market Solutions. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Could you please come back on the reason why Abslund cancelled your large carbon capture contract and was there a significant impact on your revenue guidance for 2024?

So, hi Jean-Luc. The reason for the project being canceled is the following. So, at the time of the award of the project, I would say the studies were, and the feed work was still ongoing, and it is through the execution of the feed work that we realized actually that we were facing several changes led by the client, change of site, change of expectation in terms of point of export of the CO2, et cetera. So all those changes have led to significantly having to amend the system design of the plant and we haven't been able to converge between the client and us on a solution that was suitable for them economically and suitable for us in terms of project discipline and the criteria that we like to apply to ourselves before allowing a project to enter into full-blown execution. That's very much the reason why the project has been canceled. I think the client is now back to the drawing board with the client. They understand the challenges and the constraints a lot better for such projects, so really it's over to them. But it's not affected our backlog integrity at all. In a sense, it's protected it, because the inability to converge meant that, I mean, the way you should interpret that on your end or as an investor is it was better to decide to shake hands and walk away than to embark into something very uncertain in terms of its outcome. So that's the story on Celsius. And it's marginally affecting, I would say, the top line 2024, maybe by... between 1 to 200 million, but not in excess of that.

Thank you very much.

The next question is from Jamie Franklin with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. So first, it was just on your backlog. So based on your backlog for 2024, you're going to need about 1.3 billion of short cycle book in turn to reach the midpoint of your 2024 revenue guide. So that's quite a bit higher than the short cycle you booked in 23. So I just wanted to get some color on where that's coming from. Is it primarily just an increase in short cycle TPS work, or are there any project awards which you have a high degree of confidence on which could contribute meaningfully to revenue in 2024. And then my second question, just on TPS, I was wondering if you could break out the three components, so technology, products, and services, and how we should think about the mix of those three going forward. Thanks.

So maybe I can start, and Arnaud will complement Henry. So for 2024, a few contributors or a few moving components. Yes, you will have the more traditional book and turn from TPS. As I highlighted in my comments, in my remarks, in 2023, we had a bit less larger award, which are also meaning long cycle within TPS. So you have a bit more of the shorter component within TPS that will continue to flow within this year. I've mentioned, you know, the PMC work that's progressing quite well with a lot of activity and good momentum. Also, Genesis and consulting also in very high demand in terms of services. Second, we are, you know, versus last year, seeing some awards of potential work, which are not yet in our backlog, which could contribute a full investment decision, limited or in stages, with limited notice to proceed. You can have multiple ways of factoring that in, but that's also a point. Last element. and maybe it's part of the backlog adjustment. So we booked a variable consideration at the end of the year. Variable consideration, what is that? It's really a technical accounting aspect. The right way to look at it is somewhat of a provision. The provision can be more cost or less revenues. And when looking at the portfolio at the end of the year, we made a thorough review. We made necessary provisions, and as you know us, we've been prudent, we've been very prudent, and recognize the correct level of provisions to the risk backlog. So now, if some of the risks do not materialize, provisions would be released. This would mean less cost or more revenues in this case. So this could be also a contributing factor. So that's why we ended the year with a prudent and risk position, but with the potential for future releases. So this is some of the moving parts that may contribute to the revenue profile of the year, even though, as I will remind, we are not obsessed by top line. And basically, a new project that will contribute to some top line will almost not contribute to bottom line. So it's really not impactful in the big scheme of things on the short term. Within your second part of the question for TPS, So there are, as you suggest, kind of two components, the TP part and the S, which is mostly man-hours-based. TP was very successful, notably in 2022, with SLN awards with licensing property technology, a bit less of that in 2023, still very high and good prospect for the future. So as you see this kind of unfolding, Both TP and S have increased and have basically participated to the very outstanding increase of TPS revenues. Now, when we look at our new service offerings for Canopy, for Rely, for Hummingbird, this is more geared towards increasing the TP component, which is less constrained by man-hours. So you should see us continuing to focus on all the components of TPS, but the new offering should have a greater, let's say, growth profile for the TP component, which is also supported by more R&D versus ES.

That's great. Thank you.

So if I may, there is – we've given you a rendezvous for – for Q4 this year and we absolutely intend to give you a bit more granularity with regard to the composition of TPS and the trajectory pair I would say TP or S but well well laid out by Bruno and all our investment is towards the growth of TNP versus S, so as to be less man-hour dependent and so that we don't become a body shop, but we sell differentiated technologies and associated products in the areas that are promising areas for the future. That's why, you know, when I describe Technip Energies as a robust platform for the net zero trajectory. It's because despite and in spite or in addition to how much we are returning to shareholders, including WeShare BuyBack this year, we are absolutely preserving our capacity to innovate, to invest into new solutions, to create new products, if I may say. Now, our products are not iPhones, right? So they have a bit longer sales cycles than I would say something that would be hitting the street tomorrow on the tech side or in fashion. But the importance is the pace of engagement and therefore signaling future adoption canopy. And the CaptureNow platform is only six months old, right? So it's very, very early stage. And yet the momentum around the amount of engagement, just to name one, is strong.

So we are watching that space very carefully.

The next question is from Guillaume Delapie with Societe Generale.

Please go ahead.

One question for Arnaud, please, is once again on carbon capture. You mentioned more than 90 awards, so I understand that it is essentially still engineering studies. My first question, so is it fair to assume that your carbon capture revenues, let's say in 2024, assuming I would say no final investment decision could be in the region of 300 to 400 million dollars? This is my first question. My second question, which is highly related, if we assume one or two FID in 2024, it might mean that by 2025, your carbon capture revenue could or might be above 1 billion. Is it a fair assumption? And the two other related questions still, but they will require a very quick answer. One is regarding, I have the impression that your offering was essentially targeting gas to power, waste to energy, rather than up to abated industry. When I read the slide, it doesn't seem to be the case. And last but not least, is it fair to assume that for carbon capture, As a carbon capture, let's say, EPC provider today, you probably rank number two in the world just after SLB. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Guillaume. So where to start? All right, let's start with the beginning. If, you know, the activity around carbon capture or CCU, because maybe there's a U in the future as well. So just as a reminder, like I said a bit earlier, Canopy by 10 and the CaptureNow platform are basically six months old, but they are marked by a very positive market response. Two pilots delivered in 2023, plus one canopy C10, so I would say the lower or second lowest capacity, was sold. Two major feeds for canopy C+, so the larger capacity above one million tonne per annum in Europe and in the US. So all in all, a high level of activity, translating into 90-plus projects being won. And the high activity in studies, actually, is actually across sectors. It feels skewed towards the power-gen sector in the short term, but it's actually power, waste-to-energy, hard-to-abate industries, meaning cement and steel. to all of them and all of them and we're working for all of them at the moment. The reality in terms of how soon the solutions can be adopted for notably because one of our carbon capture technology is a post combustion technology can solve and it's well suited for the power chain or the waste to energy industry. And there we will see maybe a faster adoption, but it doesn't mean that we are not looking at the rest. On the contrary, the rest will form part of the market going forward, absolutely. In terms of the revenue, I think you're in the ballpark for CCS in the numbers that you indicated. And for sure, If there is an FID, I mean, just one in 2024 for one of the prospects that we are tracking, then naturally, you know, we would onboard or inbound north of a billion of euro of order intake. And this, therefore, will translate into... revenues 2025 that would approach or get a lot closer to the billion dedicated to carbon capture. Looking at what is of interest when understanding and when looking at 10 is that I spoke about scale. Here we're looking at scale. And it wouldn't take much, actually. If we were to be successful with two awards, then all of a sudden we would see, I would say, not the shape, but the color of the portfolio tend to change drastically. That's why we are not anxious in the short term, but the profile of our portfolio and the type of project we get involved to could change drastically. quite significantly just through a couple of good awards or sizable awards in carbon capture, for sure. I hope I've answered all your questions. Maybe have I missed?

Merci beaucoup, Arnaud.

I turn it over. Thank you. That concludes today's call. Please contact the IR team with any follow-up questions. Thank you and goodbye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.