11/2/2023

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our half-year results presentation. I'm Jody Ford, CEO of Trainline, and I'm joined by Pete Wood, our CFO. Let's first go through the disclaimer. Onto the agenda for today. I'll give an introduction, briefly discussing the progress we've made in the first half of the year. Pete will talk you through our financial performance. I'll then update you on how we're progressing against our strategic priorities. After that, we'll hand back to the operator for questions. The group delivered a strong financial performance in the first half, with net ticket sales up 23% and revenue up 19%. Together with the benefits of operating leverage, this drove a 26% increase in adjusted EBITDA, while our operating free cash flow increased by 166%. Our performance reflected the strong progress we're making against our strategic priorities. In the UK, we continue to digitise the commuter experience, growing our share of the commuter segment to 22%. While in international, we further positioned ourselves as the aggregator in liberalized European rail markets, with combined net ticket sales across Spain and Italy up 50%, partly offset by slower web sales in the heart. I'm delighted to add that we are now Europe's number one most downloaded rail travel app. As a reminder, Train Learning is a tech company with a clear purpose to empower people to make greener travel choices. We seek to do that by building the world's leading rail platform, which makes it much easier for people to travel by train. In addition, we champion the environmental benefits of rail, highlighting how it generates significantly lower emissions than driving or flying. Our approach is to inspire pride in those that take positive action. We launched I Came By Train initiative last year. gaining strong early momentum with industry and government stakeholders. We've now followed up with a new consumer campaign that celebrates all the heroes who travel by train. And we've also launched Your Sustainability Story, giving personalized information to customers on their emission savings. As I look ahead, I continue to see considerable tailwinds for our growth. We operate in a 60 billion euro rail market with significant planned investment in capacity growth. This investment is particularly focused around high-speed rail, including EU targets to triple high-speed passenger volume by 2050. People are increasingly using online and digital channels to book rail tickets, with e-ticket penetration in the UK more than doubling since pre-COVID to 46%. Yet there remains significant runway in our markets for further migration, Given our leadership in this space, we are not only well-placed to benefit from this trend, we are actively driving it. And liberalization of European rail markets is creating more fragmentation in supply and greater competition amongst carriers. In aggregate, new entrant carriers now compete on 12,000 kilometers of high-speed rail routes within Western Europe. The increasing competition this brings creates a greater need for a marketplace like Trainline. As a reminder, Trainline Invest provide all the carrier options and fares in one simple, easy-to-use mobile app. Underpinning these tailwinds is the increasing momentum around the need for a level playing field within rail retailing. This notably includes the recent regulatory developments in Germany and Spain. Altogether, these structural tailwinds represent significant and long-term growth opportunities for Trainline. With that, I'll hand over to Pete to talk through our financial performance.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Thanks, Jodie, and good morning. Before I step into the financial performance for the group, I will briefly unpack the performance of our business units. Starting first with UK consumer, net ticket sales grew 19% to 1.7 billion, despite the impact of 11 strike days in the first half. Growth was led by commuters and people booking on the day of travel, who increasingly benefit from Trainline's innovative set of products and features. Long distance and leisure travel also remained strong, having recovered more quickly post-COVID. Underlying demand strengthened as industry passenger numbers continued to recover, alongside a 6% fare increase and further growth in people using e-tickets. Looking forward, the recovery path for the industry appears to be normalising, and there are currently no signs of the rail strikes letting up. December will see the expansion of TFL's contactless payment zone around London and the South East as part of the next phase of Project Oval. As we've previously said, we expect Project Oval to put around 150 million of our net ticket sales at risk. However, given the underlying strength of the UK consumer business, I feel confident we will continue to demonstrate strong growth in the second half. Our international business grew 24% to 558 million as we further positioned ourselves as the aggregator in Europe's liberalizing braille markets. The strongest performance came from the markets with the greatest level of carrier competition, Spain and Italy, with combined growth of 50% year on year. French growth slowed following our decision to pause brand marketing, which we announced in May, ahead of further liberalization in this market. Growth in web sales also slowed as the half unfolded, most notably in foreign travel. This reflected a normalizing of demand following a strong recovery last year and more competition arising from rail carriers and keyword auctions. We also saw some impact from changes to the presentation of search engine results. Jody will provide more on this later. In contrast, our growth in mobile app sales remained strong in H1, more than 60%. This reflected our long-term investment in our brand and app experience to grow habitual app use for more regular journeys. I said in May that I expected EBITDA to approach breakeven on a pre-internal transaction fee basis this year. And in the first half, we tracked in line with that guidance. This partly reflects our disciplined approach as we prove our way into new markets, closely managing lifetime value and cost of acquisition for new customer cohorts. Trainline Solutions grew 38% to 378 million. As a reminder, this business unit provides B2B retailing capabilities to rail carriers and other travel platforms. IT Carrier Solutions delivered a strong performance in the heart, while business travel in the UK continued to recover from a low base. Bringing that all together, the group achieved strong growth in net ticket sales, up 23% year on year to 2.6 billion. Revenue increased 19% to 197 million. This was slower than net ticket sales, given the mixed effect of faster growth in international and train line solutions. In addition, the take rate of our UK consumer business saw some dilution from faster growth in commuter and short distance traveled, as these segments provide less scope for monetization. Jodie will discuss later how we are nurturing ancillary revenue streams, which should help mitigate the dilution. Gross profit was up 17% to $151 million. This was slower than net ticket sales, reflecting in part industrial action in the UK, with train line incurring higher customer service costs as a result. Profitability growth outpaced net ticket sales and revenue, reflecting the benefits of operating leverage. Marketing costs increased 15% to $37 million as we acquired more customers and continued to invest in our brand. Other admin costs increased 11% to $57 million as we incurred higher AWS costs within Platform 1 from processing more transactions. It also reflected the additional costs of having increased the size of the team to scale the business, the hiring for which we completed last year. Net of these costs adjusted EBITDA was $57 million. The business continued to deliver strong cash generation with operating free cash flow of 77 million. This reflected increased EBITDA and working capital inflows, with our working capital profile normalizing following a period of COVID-related volatility. It was partly offset by higher capex investment in product and tech development. As a result, our cash generation leverage further reduced to 0.7 times EBITDA, Given this progress, in September we formally laid out our capital allocation framework, in line with which we announced a £50 million share buyback programme. All in, we have made a strong start to the year. As I look ahead, we remain well positioned for further growth and, as you will surely hear from Jodie, our team is delivering against a clear strategy. As a result, we are tightening our guidance for this fiscal year towards the upper end of the range. We expect for the group net ticket sales growth of 17% to 22%, revenue growth of 15% to 20%, and adjusted EBITDA as a percent of net ticket sales of between 2.15% and 2.25%. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Jodie.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Thanks, Pete. Let's now talk about the progress we're making against our strategy, starting with our UK consumer business. Our first key priority in the UK is to provide customers with an excellent user experience, offering them unrivaled value and removing friction when searching for trains and booking tickets. We have a strong and consistent delivery of new products and features. I'd like to touch on a couple of recent highlights that are helping unlock value for customers and remove friction. We launched a new weekly price calendar displaying to customers the days that are cheapest to travel. We also launched Strikes Safe, which tells customers whether the journey they are searching for could be affected by rail strikes and also enabling them to book with confidence. We are priming our mobile app to better serve commuters, including developing a full suite of ticket types within the app. This includes digital season tickets, which we have rolled out to almost a third of the UK network. We have driven strong take-up so far, with our share reaching around 20% of all season tickets sold on routes where digital seasons are enabled. And we are seeing positive retention benefits with digital season customers exhibiting twice the retention levels of our overall customer base in the UK. This is contributing towards our continued growth in the commuter segment, with our share now 22%, up from 20% a year ago. Our second priority is to build customer demand. Our flagship brand campaign, Great Journeys Start with Trainline, has focused on telling customers how they can save 35% on average when booking a journey through Trino, which is clearly relevant given the higher cost of living. The campaigns also point to the environmental benefits of rail travel, reflecting our core purpose to encourage greener travel choices. In the second half, the campaign will highlight more the convenience of digital ticketing, including digital seasons. On to priority number three, increasing customer lifetime value. We're making good progress encouraging more customers to use our 4.9 star mobile app, which now makes up almost 90% of our transactions in the UK. This is driving our transaction frequency, given app customers in the UK transact 50% more than web customers. Having significantly scaled net ticket sales over the past few years, we'll now look to enhance monetization to drive faster revenue growth. This includes ancillary products, leveraging the partnerships we have in place across hotels, car parking and taxes. In addition, we plan to launch new flex cover products, allowing customers to cancel plans for any reason to get a refund. And we're enhancing native ad placements within our sales channels to optimize advertising revenues. Now let's turn to our international consumer and first remind ourselves of our approach to growing the business. In May, we outlined how we are prioritising the rail markets where we have the strongest proposition. On the left-hand side are the domestic markets which enjoy widespread carrier competition, Spain and Italy. We are rapidly expanding in these markets as we seek to become the aggregator of choice and we expect our strong growth to continue into the second half. In the middle of the slide is foreign travel. This represents global, inbound and intra-EU cross-border travel and generates double-digit take rates. Taken together, Spain, Italy and foreign travel represent the 10 billion euro addressable market, similar in size to that of the UK. On the right-hand side are the markets which represent future opportunities for train line, France and Germany. These are large rail markets, each similar in size to the UK. Together they make up around 40% of our net ticket sales in international trade. And we also outlined in May, we are reducing the priority of these markets as they are less mature from the perspective of carrier competition. So for this year, I'd expect single-digit percentage growth rates for France and Germany combined. But when carrier competition does arrive, we plan to position ourselves as the aggregator in these two markets, giving train line a long runway of sustainable growth. In France, Paris-Lyon is the only domestic high-speed route that currently enjoys carrier competition. following Trenitalia's entry in December 21. On this route, our aggregation proposition is working well, growing at a similar pace to our growth across Spain and Italy. But one route doesn't offer enough opportunity to differentiate train line as the market aggregator, and therefore we have paused brand spending. However, there are encouraging developments of market liberalization. Spanish carrier Renfe has this year launched cross-border services between France and Spain. And from 2024, they plan to launch a service between Paris and Lyon which will mean four carrier brands competing on that route. And then in 2025, new entry carrier Evelyn plans to launch a London Paris service to compete with Durastar, while La Tram is planning new high-speed service in Western France. In May, we discussed how we are tailing our approach to each domestic market based on their respective level of maturity. As a recap, for phase one countries like France, we will continue to focus on providing a great user experience with all key journeys and prices. For phase two countries like Spain, we are making aggregation a key differentiator for train line. This includes ramping up marketing spend to grow brand awareness and acquire new customers. Finally, for phase three countries like Italy, as we establish ourselves as the number one aggregator, we can deepen customer relationships, including by encouraging greater app adoption. And as more carrier competition arrived in Italy, such as SNCF Wigo in 2026, we'll have an opportunity to shift our approach back to phase two, ramping up aggregation to stimulate faster growth. Let's now talk about the progress we're making against our growth strategy in international. We'll start with how we are enhancing the customer experience. In our core markets, we continue to add all new carriers and routes as soon as they come live. We've integrated rent through cross-border routes into France and are already taking a mid-teens percentage share. While in Spain, we are now integrating circuneus regional trends. This will allow us to increase transaction frequency and retention in this fast-growing market. At the same time, we are localizing our mobile app for each respective European market. In Spain, we've embedded Aereo Exchange, allowing customers to swap their tickets for a different train. And in Italy, we've added Satispay, an increasingly popular new payment method in that market. It's hard to imagine any other aggregate apps doing this depth of integration and product localization. The Spanish rail market is liberalising incredibly quickly. The top five high-speed routes in Spain have now opened to carrier competition, with new entrants already taking significant share. This is bringing a broad range of benefits on these routes, with service quality improving, fares roughly halving and rail ridership significantly increasing. Looking at the first two routes liberalised, passenger volume grew 36% year-on-year on Madrid to Barcelona and 86% on Madrid to Valencia. This is providing ideal conditions to position our mobile app as the market aggregator of choice, with our share on both routes having grown to 11% relative to a sub 1% share across Spain only a couple of years ago. Moving on to our second priority, building demand. In Spain and Italy, while providing all the carriers and journeys in our one mobile app, we are running nationwide brand campaigns. They primarily focus on train stations, where we can target 100% of the train traveling public. Since launching these campaigns, our brand awareness has almost doubled, reaching 34% in Italy and 15% in Spain. Turning now to how we are building demand in foreign travel. Last year, we saw a strong recovery in demand for foreign travel, particularly from the US. This year, we have sought to build on that. Using targeted advertising like housing, native digital content on travel sites than pushing out-of-home advertising at prominent international airports, running PR campaigns and promotional offers for supply partners like Eurostar, working with influencers, and developing marketing to leverage popular sporting events like the Rugby World Cup in France. All of this helped to generate further good growth in foreign travel sales. As Pete referenced earlier, web sales growth slowed during the first half, following a strong rebound in demand last year, particularly for foreign travel. We saw the recovery in underlying demand normalized during the half. We also saw more competition from carriers on keyword auctions following a relatively benign period last year. And finally, Google are now including trains within their travel module, which in turn is pushing organic search down the page while increasing the prominence and so the cost of paid search. In response, we're investing to integrate trainline into the travel module. We are live on key routes in Spain and Italy and have a path to integrate for more than a thousand over the coming months. In addition, we will continue to strengthen our product market fit, including the future launch of URL and inter-rail travel passes. The slower growth in web sales has had a more pronounced impact on foreign travel, where a high proportion of our sales come through web rather than app. As a result, I would expect lower double-digit percentage growth rate for foreign travel sales this year. The slower growth in web sales has had less of an impact on domestic sales. This reflects our success in switching domestic customers onto our mobile app so they can access a superior user experience. As I mentioned earlier, over 60% of transactions now come through the app in international. Italy is the best example where the app now makes up over 70% of all transactions. As customers engage more habitually with Trainline, particularly through our mobile app, it increases our relevance for more of their travel needs. like in the UK, app customers in Europe transact far more frequently than web customers. In fact, in Italy, they transact as three times as often. This includes a greater propensity to use Trainline to book shorter distance regional journeys, even though no carrier competition exists on those routes. Over the last year, regional ticket sales in Italy grew 42%, and they were five times what they were pre-COVID. While growing app usage in transaction frequency, we are beginning to add more ancillary products as a means to improve the customer experience and enhance monetization. In the first half, we introduced hotels into the booking flow in partnership with Booking.com. While our primary focus remains to grow net ticket sales, there are early signs this could be a helpful revenue stream. Turning to our fourth priority, growing train line solutions. In the first half, we further strengthened platform one. and we leveraged that strength to better serve our travel partners. This included launching new innovations, including a new train loading feature for Greater Anglia's mobile app. This allows them to display the busiest train carriages to their customers. In addition, we enhanced the loyalty scheme options available within Italo's online retailing channels. And we've extended five white label contracts in the first half, giving the carriers continued access to our industry-leading core platform functionality and customer experience features. Within Platform One, we harnessed advanced machine learning to deliver data-driven features and greater personalization. Notable examples included split-save and price prediction. They also include recommended view, which makes personalized suggestions for new trips customers might like based on their purchase and search history. We see generative AI as additive to what we're already doing in this space. Within Trainline, we recently set up AI labs. Here we are developing our own proprietary AI models that will help us to solve more complex problems. By combining these models with our unique data sets, we are widening the opportunity to create smarter and more personalized experience across the whole user jet. It's still very early days, but our first experiment is already live. It's a new guidebook feature that generates recommendations of what customers might like to for staff. Before we open the floor to questions, let me recap on some key takeaways. We delivered strong performance in the first half despite the impact of strikes, with top-line growth, higher profitability and increased cash flow generation. As a result, we have tightened towards the upper end of our guidance range for the rest of the year. In the UK, we are digitising the ticketing experience, particularly for commuters, while our share is now 22%. While in Europe, we are driving particularly strong growth in Italy and Spain, the most liberalized markets in terms of carrier competition. This includes achieving 11% share on the top Spanish high-speed routes, and we are continuing to grow. We are well-placed to manage greater competition in web sales and international consumer, and we continue to encourage more customers to download and use our mobile app. This is giving them a better user experience, increasing the amount they transact through Trainline, and cementing our position as the number one rail app. Finally, as I look forward, I continue to be very excited by the opportunity ahead on long-term growth telewinds and the progress we're making in delivering to our customers in the UK and across Europe. Thank you very much for listening. We'll now hand back to the operator for questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad now or press star 2 if you would like to withdraw your question. Our first question comes from Marcus Diebel from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Marcus Diebel
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, everyone. Two questions from my side. The first one is on for Pete. Clearly, you're progressing very well on cash generation, very strong equity potential now. Very soon, you're reaching... potentially cash level. So how do you think about the dividend distribution, about running the business at what kind of leverage or cash level? Because that question will come to you at some close point in the future. That's the first question. Second question is just again on marketing spend in the international business. Given particular Spain and also Italy, the success that you have there, Is it now not the time to push even harder on marketing because the success is, or the return on that marketing is clearly there? How do you manage that? Thank you.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Thanks for the question, Pete. Do you want to pick up the first one? Yeah, certainly. Yeah, so thanks, Marcus. We've made really good progress from a leverage perspective. So coming down from 2.3 times adjusted EBITDA to more like 0.7 now. And this reflects the net debt reducing and also the increase in EBITDA. and the way that we think about this is that we aim to keep an efficient capital structure in place and of course this then relates to the capital allocation policy that we've put in place and primarily that is there to target where we can invest behind our strategy and in organic growth opportunities And we will continue to manage debt within that as well. And then as we look ahead, the board will continue to consider the options available, which could be a range of options, but essentially to keep an efficient capital structure in place. I'm not imagining that we will get to a point where we will want to run this to a net cash position or to carry excess capital for a sustained period of time.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

And if I pick up and start on question two and then peak when we add to it, I think broadly speaking, we are, in terms of the investment in marketing, just to give a kind of strategic flavor of what that looks like, we, as you know, continue to invest from kind of an optimized way on the performance marketing, kind of leaning into the CLVs there, looking kind of a few years out because we can see the opportunity that's opening up, particularly in Spain right now, and we can see in Italy, with the advent of Wego launch in 2026, how that provides real option value there. So we remain very focused on that. And then we have layered in, as you know, over the last 12 months in Spain, last 18 plus months in Italy, brand spend, which is a combination of kind of out of home and digital and our expectations that will continue at roughly the same level that we've had over the last year or so in those markets because we see good returns and we're getting better at that and optimizing because we've been learning into those markets. So I think high level expect to see more of the same in those markets and looking for opportunities to come up to lean in harder will of course take them, but they'll be based on the performance. We manage it very closely.

speaker
Marcus Diebel
Analyst, JP Morgan

Perfect. Maybe just in to Pete's answer as well. So how do you think in this context then around potential M&A? I mean, it doesn't seem that there's anything large, obvious. But shall we assume when we look at the cash flow generation that there might be some of that cash spent on M&A? Or is that something, I mean, I think in the past you commented it's rather small. Is that still the case?

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

So, of course, we continue to look at the market and assess opportunities to further expedite progress against our strategic priorities through inorganic means and through M&A. I think there are not many obvious targets, but there are some, and we'll continue to consider how they might fit with our strategy.

speaker
Marcus Diebel
Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question is from Miriam Josiah from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

speaker
Miriam Josiah
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hello, can you hear me?

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

We can now, yes.

speaker
Miriam Josiah
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Yeah, two questions for me. Firstly, just on revenue growth, I think you mentioned sort of a number of initiatives to enhance revenue growth in the UK. So just wondering how we should think about the cadence of revenue growth ramping up. Obviously, revenue growth is growing below net ticket sales. And I guess within the guidance as well, you've slightly lowered revenue relative to net ticket sales. So I guess how should we just think about the cadence of that changing? Would we expect revenue growth to be growing faster than net ticket sales within the next year or potentially longer? And then perhaps if you could just talk about what specific initiatives you would expect to be the most meaningful. Thanks.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

I'll let Pete pick up and start on the first part.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Yeah, so you see revenue growth in the UK a bit behind net ticket sales. And really, this is about the mix of the business. We have greater opportunity to monetize customers that are buying in advance and taking longer distance journeys. And at the moment that is continuing to grow nicely, but we're seeing faster growth in the commutes segment and on the day travel where the opportunity is less. And so there's a natural dilution of revenue as that unfolds. And as Jodie outlined, there are some ancillary revenues that we are beginning to nurture. Our focus really remains on driving net ticket sales and that is the fundamental driver of revenue at the moment but there are some opportunities that we're seeing to support further take rate upside which can offset some of the natural dilution that sits there. And the way that we approach this is to test and learn. So we have some ancillary services that are in the product already, and this gives us some good signals and that allows us to then refine and hone where we show them to which customers and which moments. And then we can build on these revenue opportunities as we go forwards. And then if I step back and think about how all that fits together, I think the natural headwinds that we have with the dilution effects will persist. I think these opportunities can offset that, but I don't expect in the next couple of years to reach a position where revenue is growing more quickly than that ticket sells. And then one other point of note, I'm sure you're aware that we have the change to the commission structure that comes through in 18 months or so. And that, of course, will provide a bump in the revenue. There's a 50 basis point reduction in the commission in the UK, and that will be offset somewhat by. a cost reduction that we have. So the net impact will be more like 25 basis points. So that's how we expect to see net ticket sales and revenue unfolding on the go forward.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

And if I just add in terms of your kind of initiatives, most meaningful, I think Pete's outlined a number as it relates to kind of revenue focused in it. And if I kind of think in the UK from an MTS perspective, like I briefly mentioned digital seasons, we think there's still, we've said before previously, it's a kind of slow burn initiative. It takes time for the industry to adopt, but we are encouraged by what we've seen. there. And then more broadly, we talk about this idea of walk-up, i.e. customers who are walking into the station and buying kind of then and there. We think there's still real opportunity for us to win share in that particular market. So that's an area that we'll be pushing in the UK.

speaker
Miriam Josiah
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. Thank you. And then my second question, just on the margins. So obviously the first half margins sort of tracking slightly below the guidance. So If you could just talk a bit more about sort of what gives you confidence in that second half recovery, I guess sort of linked to the previous question on marketing spend.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Yeah, so we have some seasonality in our business, particularly where it relates to foreign travel. And we've invested behind that, as Jodie outlined, in a variety of ways to nurture that growth. And this is both a good opportunity for net ticket sales growth and it's at a higher monetization, which has its benefits as well. And of course, that's more seasonally driven by the summer months in Europe and therefore in H1. So as this plays out into H2, I'm not expecting to see such a significant marketing investment in that area. And that's what really gives me really good confidence that the increased or as we've increased guidance towards the top end that we are going to hit the four year metrics that we've laid out today.

speaker
Miriam Josiah
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from James Lockyer from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.

speaker
James Lockyer
Analyst, Peel Hunt

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Three from me, please. Firstly, just on slide 30, where you talk about the market shares across the different routes, I wonder if you could talk about some of the nuances there. Your share, for example, in Barcelona and Valencia is the same, yet Barcelona has been liberalized for more months than Valencia. Should we... Obviously, once Valencia gets 27 months, is there a reason why it sort of got there quicker? It'd be good to understand some of the nuances and correlations between your share and the number of liberalization and the number of trains liberalized on that route. The second question, I wonder if you could talk a bit more around the acquisition you made in the period. I understand that it's a geolocation software business. It'd be good to understand where that fits into your pipeline. And then final question around, it's good to see you're starting to support local payment methods and our FinTech team is always talking about how that helps reduce friction for customer acquisition. I was wondering if you could talk a bit more about your payment strategy there, how you're going to be supporting more local payments like you've done in Italy and how that should improve conversion by reducing failures. Thanks.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

James, thanks for the questions. I'll pick the first one up and then hand over to Pete on the second two. So, yeah, with regard to slide 30 and our kind of relative share in the various routes, high-speed routes in Spain, this is really, as you say, it's a function of the maturity of the route. And some of these smaller routes were obviously only being liberalized for a small number of months. I think to answer specifically your question as it relates to Barcelona versus Valencia from Madrid, I think that chart on the left hand side that shows the percentage share of new entrants is helpful here. And our share is significantly higher, for example, on. irio and wego than it would be on renfe because renfe if you like is the incumbent and people have been using that app and been doing that for a period of time as they look elsewhere and decide they might want to try one of these alternative services because of the very compelling price points at which they are more likely to use trainline and come to us there and therefore valencia has seen an over index, it's kind of more aggressive and actually a very large share. And you can see almost two thirds of the share of that route is now on new challenger brands on that route. So I really think it's an index or a function of So that it's kind of a mixed effect almost playing through there. But what I would say is we have seen this. I mean, it's great because we actually have pretty good market data in Spain in the same way we do in the UK. We're able to track this in a way we aren't in some of the other markets. We're seeing that number about 11% move up pretty nicely and solidly. And we hope and aspire to bring that number higher in the coming months. And with that, I'll pass over to Pete to talk through Signalbox.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Great, thanks Jodie. So yes, our Signalbox acquisition is a relatively small acquisition that we've made, but this really was on the back of identifying some real best-in-class rail geolocation software and capabilities that have been developed. At the heart of that, being able to identify what train someone is on is at times more challenging than you might imagine. I don't know a particularly busy area like Clapham Junction where there are a number of trains moving and in parallel or in opposite directions, it can really get quite complex. And as we looked at this opportunity and developed a relationship with Toby, who's the founder, we recognized that the opportunity to buy here rather than to build out the capability ourselves was the smart decision. So we've been delighted to invite Toby, the founder, into our family and as an employee. There are a number of exciting opportunities that lie ahead of us with regards to this technology and principally developing some of our pay-as-you-go R&D that we're doing at the moment at its heart requires us to be able to identify where someone is at any point in time. So that's kind of the principal use case that we're working around now. But there are all sorts of other opportunities that might lie ahead. where it comes to knowing what train someone's on. They might relate to fraud or to delay repay. So there's all sorts of opportunity that lies ahead and we're really pleased with this acquisition.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

And just to kind of build a little bit further in terms of, it seems like a good moment to talk about it. We actually supporting the customer on the journey is kind of core to what we do. It allows us to do things like being able to pass information to the transport police to know exactly the location of the customer, for example. And then I pick up on the final question on local payment options. So yes, Satispay is a particular kind of strong Italian payment option. we will continue to look at other payment options. I think in most of the other markets, we feel like we've got really all of the principal ones covered. So it's not like there's a line of five or six more that we are needing to integrate. But of course, as we enter new markets or look at new markets, we'll look at if there's payment players that have a sort of significant share, we'll of course continue to integrate them.

speaker
James Lockyer
Analyst, Peel Hunt

Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Our next question comes from Katie Cousins from Shore Capital. Please go ahead.

speaker
Katie Cousins
Analyst, Shore Capital

Thanks. Morning, guys. Just looking for your thoughts around France's plans to launch a 49 rail pass similar to the Deutsche ticket and what the threats could be in that, appreciate lower priority region, but what was the threat of that expanding elsewhere and into other European countries? Thank you.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Sure. So, yeah, like, I mean, just to kind of do the backstory here from the German, as you say, Deutschlandtag ticket. So this is the 49 euro ticket that launched following the nine euro ticket that was pretty successful in Germany through the summer. They then launched 49 euro. I think the reality of that ticket is that it's really, it's been used pretty widely. It's got a large adoption and it's very much in line with the kind of environmental lobby within Germany. and tends to be used by commuters who are effectively getting a fairly significant discount on their commute into the sort of various large German cities. And then that's been picked up and kind of at the senior levels in the French political kind of real establishment talked about now something similar, whether it would be a 49 euro ticket or another price point for some kind of subscription like regional, and I think that's quite critical, regional potential intercity, but not high speed ticket, which But I think the aspiration is to launch that by the summer. Now, we took the decision in Germany not to launch the 49 euro ticket because Germany was a market we have continued to sort of deprioritize, awaiting a kind of sensible commission level in that market. It would be very different in France, really, because we, as you know, have a good base of French customers. And we actually think this would be a real opportunity for us. It clearly does create some risk around the regional tickets that we sell there already. But we think equally there's real opportunity there because we think we'd be able to retail this well. We'd be able to integrate it within our app. And there's actually an opportunity to win new customers and create a kind of customer acquisition strategy for ultimately high speed, which is, you know, it's really where we make the lion's share of our profits and revenue in all the markets that we operate in. We are connected in touch with the French authorities. I think as it stands at the moment, it's not a clearly defined proposition. There's quite a lot of work for the French authorities to do, but we are in conversations around that. And as that kind of comes to pass, I understand we will engage in obviously over over time let others know what we're doing there but we would aspire to launch something should it come to pass in france brilliant thank you our next question is from gareth davies from numis please go ahead yeah hi morning guys um a couple from me um the first one

speaker
Gareth Davies
Analyst, Numis

Can you talk a little bit around competition in Europe? I think at the time of IPO, Omeo was the only real kind of notable player beyond the incumbents. I'm just wondering, have you seen any change in terms of the landscape as you're having success in markets like Italy and Spain, either at a local level or across Europe? And then the second one, in terms of, I mean, it's feeling ever more likely we're going to get a Labour government Can you just talk through from your perspective, is there anything you can kind of proactively do to help smooth the transition to a new government if that is how it plays out? Just your thoughts there and how you're working with the Labour Party. Thank you.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Sure. Starting with the first one, competition in Europe. I would say in any of those European markets, our principal competition still remains the carrier, the incumbent carrier, which, as you know, would be SNCF in France or Trenitalia in Italy and so forth. in terms of the apps that they have developed and kind of helping customers make the call to make the change and try something new and ultimately show the value and the UX that Trainline offers. And your aggregation and putting together, you know, whether it's two, three or four different services is a very compelling use case for doing that. And that's the reason we're seeing the strong growth and success in Italy and indeed in Spain. When we look elsewhere, there really is no other player that we look at with any degree of concern in terms of a share that is anywhere close to the share we've had. We've been able to be on the front foot, invest heavily in marketing, as you know, and also in product and UX, and then be able to integrate all of the different players. So we are really pleased with our competitive position in Europe. As it relates to a Labour government, obviously, I don't want to speculate too much about where that might go. And I think, how should you think about this? We are, of course, engaged with senior members of all parties as it relates to rail. I think at the moment, it's been more a period of, let's call it, headlines rather than policy. But I do think Labour now is taking the time to engage around rail. And we're obviously engaged with them around that and to develop their policy on it. expect over the coming months, we will see more from them. I think as it relates to what we are hearing and seeing, I think the things that are encouraging is a real focus on customer and a desire to make sure whatever kind of comes out in Raya works for customers, which is something we would obviously be very aligned with. And I think the other thing which we've found very helpful is actually a kind of openness around the open access players, such as Lumo and Hull Trains and Grand Central. And I think that's encouraging. As you know, there's been an approval for a grand union to go out from London to Bristol and ultimately Cardiff. And we think this is a really encouraging trend more broadly. And now with the Evelyn, the proposed or planned London to Paris route, we see more common competition coming through. And from what we hear early days, the Labour government seems to be supportive of that. And we think that's a really good thing. And obviously that means that the customers need help to find the best prices and we will be there for them. And then look more broadly, how do we think about this? Whatever government is in, we think over the last sort of three years, we've established a series of principles and sort of tested them around this idea of principles of kind of a level playing field and ensuring kind of fair competition as it relates to retail. And we feel really good about those and that's kind of how we operate. And I think both parties, whenever we hear them talk, they're really focused on the actual rail carriers themselves rather than retail. And most times we speak to the senior politicians, they are train line users, or certainly their family are, and they understand the benefits and they get it.

speaker
Gareth Davies
Analyst, Numis

Thank you very much. Just one other one. You talked about the extension of five white label contracts. Are there any kind of new tenders of notes that are out there or anything you can raise in terms of new business?

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

So I'd say we're entering a kind of new phase, I think, where we do expect to see more kind of tendering, retendering of contracts on white label, just broadly, some of the ones that we have and some of the ones that are that we don't have. And I think this just reflects a kind of freeing up, a kind of unlock post-COVID, the new establishment of the new franchises and the talks beginning to kind of look beyond the next six months to maybe the next three years or seven years, depending on their contract. So whilst there's no specifics I'll share today, I do think that we're going to see more tenders out there in the coming kind of, let's say, 12 months.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Fantastic. Thank you. Our next question is from Andrew Ross at Barclays. Please go ahead.

speaker
Andrew Ross
Analyst, Barclays

Great morning, everyone. I've got two more left. There's already been a lot of good ones. First one is about train line solutions. I'm wondering if you could give us a bit more colour in terms of the different bits that are comprised within that. So in terms of where The business piece is getting to what's going on in the white label piece. And then I guess probably quite impressive growth in international. But if you give us any more color in terms of the mix, that would be quite helpful. And then the second one is to follow up on James's question on slide 30 on your share in some of those newer routes in Spain, which is a very helpful slide, so thank you. It sounded from what Pete was saying that the 11% you're at in the most mature lines continues to increase, but can you give us a sense of the curve? Is that now starting to flatten out, or is it still kind of linear? And what can you give us to help us think about what kind of share you could ultimately get to? Like, how are you thinking about that when we try to size how big the opportunity could be for you over time.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Sure. Why don't I start with that Spanish one and then we'll pick up on the 29 solutions. So look, I'd say that growth is linear. We don't see any kind of flattening out anytime soon. In terms of, I think the way probably I think about kind of modeling this and thinking it through is of those challenger brands, with many of them, and if I can take a European view of this rather than just Spain, we would be 20, 25, potentially 30%, and sometimes 30% north of the tickets that they are selling, like would be sold through train line. And so I think that gives you a sense of the opportunity and our aspiration. And what we've seen on those routes that have been around longer across Europe is that as customers try us out on the new challenger brands, they then begin to use us on the incumbent, but that process takes time to work through. So over time, it chips up on both sides. When we talk about aspirations, the way I talk to the teams, I want to be in a position where we're north of 20% share. And when we get there, we'll raise our eyes and look to be doing something higher than that. But that's the kind of goal we have for ourselves at the moment. And obviously, the other three routes that you see here continue to go. And more importantly, this reflects Q2 data. As we see more come through, you will see the Alicante, Seville, and Malaga continue to grow as well. And then it relates to train line solutions. I'll let Pete pick up on just kind of the high level themes that we're seeing.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

Yeah, thanks, Andrew. So we've had a really good result in H1 with net ticket sales up 38%. And this was somewhat kind of inflated from a lower base. But nonetheless, it's good performance. And Jodie's outlined kind of what's happening in the white label part of the market. So we've had extension on some of those contracts, and that gives us some good visibility ahead. And we do expect there to be some tenders emerging, which will kind of play out for the years beyond that. And then the part that we haven't spoken so much about is the business travel and that we've seen business travel recover to around the kind of 45% level of pre-COVID sales. And this is kind of relatively normalized at this point. I'm not expecting it to take... further step ups by leaps and bounds. That said, we do see the tailwinds for this part of the business, particularly as carbon reporting becomes more prevalent and companies are going to need to think about how people are moving around, how their employees are moving around and And so that shift from flights and onto rail is likely to persist over the next decade or so. And with that in mind, we're seeing opportunities to leverage our global API and to sign up and start to see revenues flow from travel management companies who are looking to put that, put rail into the portfolio and take advantage of some of these tailwinds that exist. And we're having some good conversations about how we expand into Europe. We already have a strong set of relationships in the UK. And those conversations are progressing well. The tech takes a bit of time to implement. So the way I think about this is that it is a good slow burn opportunity for us that we will continue to see the benefits of over the next three years or so.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Perfect. Thank you. Our next question is from Kieran Donnelly from Barenburg. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kieran Donnelly
Analyst, Berenberg

Thanks, guys, and thanks for taking the questions. A few left for me. One could just give a sense of, I guess, the enhanced monetization in the UK consumer business. If we think in old money of kind of five and three getting to 8% take rate, could we see take rates in kind of the 9% range in the future as they kind of mature? Secondly, just on the UK, can you talk about pay-as-you-go and any developments on that side? And then just on international consumer, one, I guess, can you just clarify that you don't see any reason why over the longer term take rate in the international consumer business can't reflect the UK consumer business? And then finally, just on... international consumer, on the liberalized route, do you tend to see volume goes up as they liberalize banks?

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Sure, I'll pick off the two and four and then pass over to Pete on the monetization one. So firstly, UK pay-to-go developments. Look, this is a space we've talked about before, and I think we flagged and talked about the oval expansion in the UK, which is taking the London sort of tap-and-go zone and expanding it out to Cambridge, Bedford, and sort of round and down to Brighton. The first phase of that will go live in the next couple of months, which we've said is, remind you that 150 million in sort of sales at risk there. I think, as we kind of noted before, what this doesn't do, it works for commuters coming into London, but it's not good if you're travelling with a family. It doesn't really support rail cards and it gives you a pretty weak sense of control of that spend. And if you take somewhere like Cambridge, we're up to like about sort of £50 return where you're tapping in. and tapping out. And actually on many of these further routes, increasingly there's more chance that something like split save or indeed advanced purchase would be better and cheaper if you were buying on Trainline. And then I think that in terms of development, I think this pay-as-you-go idea, more of an app-based system is something we said we were kind of researching and moving into development. Actually just in the last sort of week or so, we've now moved to, I don't want to overemphasize this, but a very small trial around pay-as-you-go, allowing us to actually, using some of the location technology Pete talked about earlier, allowing us to sort of track you as you open it on your app and tell you well how much would that cost and then as you get off to kind of click or automatically know what the cost was of that journey and that's we think a potential technology for the future I think the government has previously talked about rolling out pay as you go more broadly in the country we think this is one of the technologies that could offer an answer and we've been investing to kind of work through on that I do think this is more like a three to five year thing than anything that's going to jump out next year. And I'd say when we look across to Europe, we do see some trials going on there as well. SNCF has one in Neuval Aquitaine, and there are some sort of trials going on in Germany. So we think it's a potential kind of, I would say, specifically regional type solution that we want to investigate and continue to invest in going forward. If I pick up a question for there as it relates to liberalized routes, absolutely we see volumes increase and I think there's various sort of test cases, many of them kind of live right now, but it's not crazy to be thinking about volumes in the sort of 30 to 40 percent increase as ultimately they cannibalize road and air and it kind of depends a bit on the route but I think Madrid to Barcelona is a good example where there's a lot of people using road because they perceived it as better value And that's now moving to, and Coach actually moving to route. Equally, there's been business customers who've wanted to use air, but now given the speed of high speed and the competition frequency of service, they've chosen to move to air. And I would expect, for example, if you see competition on London Paris, I'd expect there to be more frequency of service and lower prices, and therefore you'll see more cannibalisation of that route. And we'd be really encouraged to see more routes up and up to competition in the UK with the right political support.

speaker
Pete Wood
CFO of Trainline

I mean, Pete, should I pass to you on monetization? Yeah, sure. So your first question about monetization in the UK and you referenced the kind of the three and the five, if you like. So the five, as I said, will drop to four and a half in 18 months time. And there'll be some some cost forgiveness of the full impact won't drop through to EBITDA. And then really what remains is around what we do with the three. And we have some natural headwinds with the three where we are seeing a stronger growth on the day where the monetization is harder. And then we have the tailwinds where we have opportunity to nurture new revenue streams. And then net of all of that, you were asking the question, can we get to 9% take rate or so? And the way I think about this is we're still focused on growing net ticket sales principally, and there's still good opportunity here, both in the headroom that we see with e-tickets, and as Jodie outlined earlier, more pervasively with the commutes and with season tickets. So that's the kind of fundamental driver of revenue. And so we will nurture these opportunities from a take rate perspective. But in short, I don't expect us to reach a level of 9% in the next one to two years. And then you also asked a question about how international tape rate might unfold and how that relates to the UK. And you've got a similar answer here. So again, we're mostly focused on driving growth and net ticket sales. And of course, to some extent, certain monetization streams could get in the way of the marketing investments that we make and that we're very conscious of not wanting to dilute those efforts at the wrong moment and so we're mindfully introducing new revenue streams in that place and some of them are working well and we talked about Booking.com and the relationship we have there. And that has been additive to the revenue mix without having a material impact on the net ticket sales growth. So these are great examples. And as we discover more of those, you can expect us to chase them. But principally, we're focused on net ticket sales. And over the longer run, we do expect a take rate to increase over time. But we will do that mindfully and balancing it with growth.

speaker
Jody Ford
CEO of Trainline

Thanks, Pete. And I think that's probably the time we've run up to time there. So thank you very much for the questions and for joining today. As Pete and I have said, we've delivered a strong financial performance in the first half of the year, and we've tightened our guidance range for the remainder of the year. We're making significant progress against our strategic priorities, both in the UK and international, and we remain fully positive and energised about the growth opportunities ahead. Thank you.

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