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Unicredito Spa Ord New
5/3/2023
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Before I hand over to Magda Palcinska, Head of Investor Relations, a reminder that today's call is being recorded.
Madam, you may begin. Good morning and welcome to Unicredit's first quarter 2023 results conference call. Andrea Orchel, our CEO, will lead the call. Then Stefano Porro, our CFO, will take you through the financials in more detail. Following Andrea's closing remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Please limit yourself to two questions. With that, I will hand over to Andrea.
Thank you, Magda. And thank you all for joining us today. The first quarter of this year has been a notable one for our industry. The economic shocks and unexpected fragility we have witnessed across the US and in Switzerland raise questions about both banks' strengths and how they are operating day to day. These were idiosyncratic and specific to a segment of our industry with limited read-across to European banking. However, they do highlight the need beyond regulation for banks to be managed efficiently, effectively and responsibly and continuing to strive for excellence. Principles which are at the heart of Unicredit Unlocked. While the recent approval of our 3.3 billion euro share buyback and 1.25 billion early redemption of the 81 evidence Unicredit's specific strengths and resilience, the results I will present to you today further underscores Unicredit's transformation, a journey which, whilst accelerated, is far from being over. Every day we continue to unlock internal value and today's results are just one of many additional milestones to come. We are winning and are well on our way to becoming the bank for Europe. Let's start our presentation. We have delivered our ninth consecutive quarter of profitable growth and the best first quarter ever for the group. Unicredit Unlocked is releasing our bank's potential and the management of our three levers is delivering financial success. We now move into phase two of our industrial transformation. We have outperformed our prudent macro assumption. Our alpha actions and strong lines of defense have further propelled our results and will position us to outperform in all environments in the future. We are upgrading our 2023 guidance and setting a new floor for the future, underpinned by the actions we are proactively taking to prepare for an eventual less supportive macro environment. We continue to build a sustainable competitive advantage, resilient and growing results, and a robust balance sheet. All this amounts to an unlocked unique credit, a bank focused on continuously seeking to improve itself and create value. This is the ninth consecutive quarter of profitable growth and the best first quarter ever, delivering a 2.1 billion net profit, 20.4% Rote at 13%, and 3.4 billion organic capital generation. The supportive macro is further boosted by our industrial transformation and our operating performance is protected by our lines of defense. We feel that these two levers are not often taken into consideration. We are investing and strengthening our bank for the future. We're investing in the network through hires, upskilling through training, and the rollout of the Unicredit University across the group. And in our technology, through exactly the same levers. We're extracting inefficiency from our complex organization, our complex processes, way of working, products and technology. This is about constantly transforming our bank into one fit for the future. Our results show that this is working with record performance across the board. Net revenues are up 57% year-on-year. This is especially impactful given the targeting of profitable quality growth, so a growth that shows risk discipline and is EVA positive. Costs were reduced 1% and RWA 9% in spite of growth, inflation and our investment in the future. The strengths of our operational and capital levers are shown respectively in a best-in-class 39.2% cost-income ratio and 7.7% net revenue on RWA. These are also our best ever. As a result, our return on tangible equity exceeded 20% at a 13% CT1, which is more comparable versus our peers as it extracts some of our excess capital. And we generated 111 basis points or 3.4 billion of capital organically, reaching 16.1% in CT1. The strategy we're implementing is uniting our bank as one franchise capable of delivering consistent quality, profitable growth over the long term. As such, we are upgrading our net profit guidance to in excess of 6.5 billion. This is pre-81 and cash is coupon of 400 million, but post 300 million of restructuring charges as we continue to strive for operating excellence. Accordingly, we're also upgrading our distribution guidance to equal or in excess of 5.75 billion. Let's turn to the next slide. Our value proposition is simple. We are re-engineering our bank into one with a sustainable competitive advantage. We are already well underway in the execution of Unicredit Unlocked and are now determined to go further. We have a clear vision to set a new benchmark for banking and be the bank for Europe. Our winning strategy is client-centric, focused on our strengths and continually striving for excellence. We have a four-pillar industrial plan which reinforced our commercial machine and will now improve our operating machine. Our three financial levers will continue to deliver alpha-driven results and create value over the long term. So that is how we win the right way together. This value has always been within Unicredit, but we are able to release it now because we have established a common vision and are united by our distinctive culture. Our people are striving for excellence, and it is this which enables us to capitalize on our unique and irreplicable model. Next slide. Our strategic plan, Unicrate Unlocked, continues to leverage our inherent strengths and unlock innate value. We have 15 million clients across Europe and are a unique gateway to the continent. We have 75,000 people in 13 leading local banks, 40% of which are in single A or better rated geographies. We have two product factories and an evolving ecosystem of best-in-class partners, which enables us to deliver top-quality solutions and products. We aim to grow by combining our world-class factories and our local reach to provide products and services that competitors cannot replicate. Our digital machine is resilient, and we have a strong dataset. We're investing in both to become a truly digital data-driven bank, positively impacting our clients' and employees' journeys. All of this is anchored by our shared ambition, principles, and values. We strive for excellence and lead by example in ESG, always aiming to fulfill our purpose of empowering communities to progress. We will now take a closer look to our industrial transformation plan in the next slide. Phase one of our industrial transformation plan is well advanced. This is about reinforcing our commercial machine. It has brought us closer to our clients and set the base for new run rate. Our people are unified. Our organization is empowered within a clear risk and capital framework. And we are integrating our front line and product factories. Phase two is just underway. This is about significantly improving the efficiency and effectiveness of our operating machine, which we are re-engineering to further support our business. Our technology and product factories deliver scale and scope. We're simplifying our processes to increase speed and reduce cost. We continue to broaden our product offering, automate and digitalize to enhance client experience. Our commercial machine now shows the right drive, the right mindset, and an ability to deliver for clients. And we're just started. We now intend to support it with a more efficient operating machine. The combination of these two is what will create further value. Next slide. We are already a different bank. Our transformation is well advanced, but we're far from being dumb. This slide highlights some of the many milestones we have already achieved with many more to come. Let's turn to slide eight. We aim to deliver differentiated financial results in any macro environment, thanks to our relentless focus on alpha. We are executing on all our three levers of cost, net revenue and capital. We continue to reduce non-business costs to invest while creating positive operational jaws where both revenues and costs contribute. we have grown revenue while maintaining structurally lower cost of risk. We're on course to achieve sustainable best-in-class RWA efficiency, all coming together to drive superior profitability, enabling outsized distribution. As regards beta, we were prepared for was one of moderate NII growth and high inflation. The scenario we currently face is one of improved rates and better GDP growth. We are boosting the supportive macro through our industrial transformation. We are protecting our operating performance with our lines of defense. We are therefore capable of differentiated results in all environments. Next slide. Our results speak for themselves. Our gross revenues are up 18%, while our cost of risk has declined 93% to 8 basis points, thanks to the rationalization of our Russian provision, no longer needing to accrue overlays, and our strong asset quality and coverage, which resulted in significant runbacks. Our operating leverage is a key feature of this result and is now among best in class, as is our capital. We note our 35% improvement in gross operating profit year over year. This confirms both the increasing strengths of our business and of our lines of defense, which, as intended, are currently propelling our profitability and organic capital generation. All of our business areas are contributing to this excellent performance. We continue to create exceptional value for our shareholders. Our return on tangible equity at 13% CT1 reached 20.4%, increasing not only because of positive macro, but also, and more importantly, thanks to our ongoing industrial transformation and our lines of defense at work. Share-by-backs continue to further enhance our value creation, especially given our low valuation. Note our tangible book value per share growth of 22% year on year. The 2022 share-by-back currently in execution, combined with improved guidance, will further underpin these numbers going forward. Let's turn to the next slide. Our product factories are growing organically and through partnership, strengthening the level of cooperation towards a full-service client-centric bank. We have the engine of our capital light revenue generation at 2.5 billion. We have begun to unlock the value of these factories, but there is more to come as we continue to invest in them. Corporate solution grew revenue 3% year-on-year, an excellent result given the strong Q1 of last year because of the market situation then. Client risk management, transaction and payment, and more recently, advisory and capital markets continue to drive growth. This compensates for the right sizing of specialized lending due to the TLTRO reimbursement and the removal of Euribor flooring. We are investing organically in advisory to capture market recovery. We are rationalizing and further enhancing our payment solutions through partnerships. Individual solutions have been more negatively affected by the environment year over year, but they are now accelerating quarter over quarter. Protection continues to be a standout, while life insurance, which in our case includes mostly unit-linked and not riskier ramo primo, and fund and portfolio management are recovering. The expansion of our non-life product offering beyond CPI is bearing fruit. Italy. Our Italian business had yet another outstanding quarter, demonstrating its ability to deliver sustained quality profitable growth. Net revenues were up 13% year-on-year, gross revenue 20%. This was driven by NII up 66% thanks to strict management of the path through, thanks to our strengths. While fees suffered year-on-year, they were up 8% quarter-on-quarter thanks to strong performance in protection and asset under management sales. Costs were reduced 2% thanks to our continued focus on simplification and streamlining, whilst funding circa 200 new hires in the network. RWAs were reduced by 15%. As a result, we achieved our best ever leading operating and capital efficiency with a 36.1 cost income ratio and 9% net revenue over RWAs. Profit before tax in Italy was up 29% to 1.3 billion euros. ROAC exceeded 25% and the region contributed 50 basis points or 1.6 billion of capital organically to the group. Our continued innovation in data was recognized by the Italian Banking Association, as was our innovation in products, for example, in home and health insurance. Finally, we continue to support communities by investing in our branches and restarting purchase of tax credit through Superbonus. ESG underpins all that we do, reflected in our award for best ESG bank in Italy and in Europe 2023. Germany. Germany's structural transformation continues powering excellent results. Net revenues were up 13% year-on-year. Gross revenues were up 11%. This was driven by NII up 8% and fees up 1%, with an acceleration of the latter quarter over quarter. Costs were reduced nearly 6%, with the ongoing transformation more than compensating for inflation and investment. We expect significant further efficiency through 2023 and 2024. RWA were down 6% as well. Germany also reached its best ever operating and capital efficiency with a 40.4% cost-income ratio and a 7.4% net revenue on RWA ratio. Profit before tax landed up 65%. At 700 million, ROAC reached 19.5%, more than twice its cost of equity. The region delivered 30 basis points or 900 million of capital organically. We're supporting SMEs in their ESG transition by matching platform from green tech startups and have extended our smart banking model to micro-businesses. We extended lending to medical services in under-serviced regions to play our role in the community. Central Europe. Central Europe has also set a new improved run rate. Net revenues were up 23% year-on-year, gross revenue 27%. This was driven by NII up 43%. Fees were stable quarter-over-quarter. Costs were also down 1%, driven by our continued transformation in Austria. Our focus on operating and capital efficiency was reflected in a 39.8% cost-income ratio for the region and 6.6% net revenue on RWA ratio. Profit before tax was up 72% at 400 million. ROAC was 15.6% and the region delivered 9 basis points or 300 million of capital organically. Each bank is progressing its industrial transformation while continuing to support clients' green and social transition. A significant progress in retail digitalization, Austria has enabled all started products in mobile, while Czech Republic and Slovakia is now acquiring one-third of new clients remotely. We excel in our markets. Unicredit Hungary was awarded as the best international private bank in Hungary, while Unicredit Czech Republic was recognized as top acquirer in the Czech market. Eastern Europe. Eastern Europe continues to deliver record profitable growth. Net revenues were up 39% year over year. Growth revenue, 32%. This was powered by both NII up 41% and fees up 6%. Cost growth was contained to 6%, less than half inflation, and in spite of continued significant investments in digitalization and automation in the region. Our focus on operating and capital efficiency was reflected in a 34.6% cost-income ratio and 9.3% net revenue on RWA ratio. Profit before tax landed at 400 million. ROAC was 33.1% and the region delivered 11 basis points or 300 million of capital organically. Our strong profitable growth is supported by each bank in the region. Croatia, Bulgaria, Bosnia reaffirmed their market leadership position, introducing new products to help enhance the value of customer saving and improving overall quality of customer care. Romania and Serbia further accelerated their retail growth and drove best proactive solution in micro business, all in addition to their existing strengths in the corporate sector. Social impact banking initiatives have been rolled out across the region, as well as the first ever government bond insurance and numerous award. Russia. We continue to take a clear and conservative approach to Russia, maintaining our support for Western companies while looking for opportunities to continue to de-risk, minimizing current and future potential losses to the group. In the last year, we have decisively resized our operation, substantially reduced our exposure, and increased our coverage of risk, both locally and cross-border. We have proactively enhanced our lines of defense and the impact from our extreme loss assessment has been reduced from 128 basis points to 38 basis points year-on-year, while Group CT1 pro forma for an extreme loss impact has increased from 13.3% to 15.7%. We will continue in this direction. Let's turn to the next slide. Our robust balance sheet is underpinned by broad-based increased strengths. We continue to see the visible outcomes of a conservative approach to capital, to asset quality, to liquidity, and to interest rate risk. Our CT1 ratio has been driven by our high-quality capital stock, transformed organic capital generation, and sustainable distribution all part of our long-term approach. Our cost of risk is driven by a number of factors, including our high-quality asset portfolio, low- and higher-quality NPEs, sound proactive staging, and superior coverage. In addition, we have substantially enhanced our overlays to best-in-class, enabling us to either protect or propel our operating results going forward and strengthen our risk discipline across the business. Finally, our liquidity buffers are strong. This is due to our high quality and diversified deposit base, our strong liquidity ratios, prudent asset and liability management, and finally, our significant net positive exposure to the ECB. Next slide. We benefit from the highest CT1 with lowest dependence on 81, which we continuously strengthen by best-in-class organic capital generation. This, combined with distribution that, whilst best-in-class, continue to be set significantly below our organic capital generation, results in an ever-strengthening CT1. We do not believe many can claim that. Next slide. Our solid credit portfolio means that our cost of risk is structurally lower than in the past. And we are prepared to meet future headwinds. Our gross NPE stock has declined to 12.6 billion with a much improved mix, three quarters being UTPs. Our net NPE stock is 6.5 billion. The bank is also surpassing peers when it comes to staging and coverage. We continue to have the highest stock of overlays at circa 1.8 billion that will either protect or propel our result as they are released, and they will be. Finally, we continue our disciplined approach on new business with our expected loss of 26 basis points, seven basis points lower than that on our stock excluding Russia. Next slide. Our robust liquidity profile allows us to better manage path through, balancing the interest of our clients with current and future profitability. Our deposit base is sticky, diversified, stable, and high quality. Our liquidity ratios are all strong. We maintain a prudent approach to ALM, managing liquidity and interest rate risk separately. Excess liquidity is placed with ECB, and this is well in excess of our residual TLTRO borrowings. I will now hand over to Stefano Porro, who will provide you with more detail on our excellent results of the first quarter. Stefano.
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