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Uniper Se

Q32022

11/3/2022

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Analyst and Investor Conference Call of Uniper. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If any participant has difficulties during the conference, please press star key followed by zero on your telephone for operator assistance. May I now hand over to Stefan Jost. EVP Group Finance and Investor Relations, who will start the meeting today. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stefan Jost
EVP Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you and good morning, dear analysts and investors. Welcome to the Uniper Interim Results Call for the first nine months of fiscal year 2022. Today, I'm sitting here with Tiina Tuomela, our Chief Financial Officer. And today, we would like to take you through the details of our nine-month results following up on last week's ad hoc announcement, which included preliminary headline numbers. As usual, there will be a Q&A session after the presentation, and let me hand over to Tina, please.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you very much for your introduction, Stefan. A warm welcome from my side as well, and thank you for participating in our conference call today. With respect to our nine months result, we can now finally confirm the preliminary key headline numbers from last week's ActHealth announcement. Adjusted group EBIT turned out at minus 4.8 billion euros compared with a positive outcome of 614 million euros in the prior year period. And adjusted net income is down from 487 billion euros last year to minus 3.2 billion euros now. Both figures include about 10 billion euro of realized incremental cost for procuring replacement gas volumes due to the Russian curtailment. When it comes to the unadjusted income figures, the gas containment losses are significantly higher as both realized and expected future losses are included here. And the expected containment losses have increased quite significantly since the H1 call as the previously envisaged gas surcharge has been cancelled meanwhile. Without this surcharge, Juniper is no longer relieved from 90% of its gas containment losses from the 1st of October onwards. Accordingly, and until it is finally clear how the tailored solution to compensate Juniper for the gas containment losses will look like, Juniper is now expected to bear the full Russian gas containment losses in its profit and loss which is significantly driving up the overall expected cash containment losses reflected in unadjusted net income. This earnings development is also directly impacting Uniper's equity position both under IFRS and German GAAP. In both cases, the book equity value is significantly negative now based on 30th September valuation parameters. Accordingly, we are clearly in a situation where more than half of the company's registered share capital has been consumed by the net loss incurred during the first nine months of 2022. Therefore, as communicated in last week's ad hoc, Uniper's Board of Management will shortly convene an extraordinary shareholders meeting in line with section 92 of the German Stop Corporation Act in order to report on the losses and explain the situation of the company to the shareholders. This corresponding EGM will take place in the second half of December. The solution to bring Uniper back into safe waters lies in a successful implementation of the already communicated stabilization package as agreed by Uniper, Fortum and the German government. While the implementation process is still ongoing, the German government's strong public commitment to financially support Uniper is acknowledged very positively by the rating agency S&P Global. In mid-October, Uniper's investment grade rating was confirmed at BBB-, outlook negative, including a six-notch governmental upflip above the standalone credit rating. Let us now take a look at Uniper's current situation in terms of gas containment losses, as well as the implementation of the stabilization package. European gas spot prices have declined significantly in recent days due to the very warm weather and filled up gas storages. As of last week, the TTF day ahead price noted below 30 euro per megawatt hour. As a daily spot price is one of the key variables determining our daily review procurement losses related to the Russian gas containment, our daily run rate of those losses has come down materially, almost down to zero. Accordingly, the accumulation of gas containment losses has almost come to a stop for the time being. Why this is positive? It is unfortunately only a momentarily, mainly weather-induced situation as can be observed when looking at forward prices for the next couple of months. It does therefore in no way reduce the importance and the urgency to implement the sustainable and structural stabilization measures as agreed with the German government. The German government will take a 98.6% stake in Juniper by contributing direct equity and acquiring Fortum's current 80% shareholding. As part of the three pillar stabilization package, Uniper's short-term liquidity is fully secured by credit lines from the state-owned KfW. The credit facility line has been increased to 18 billion euros of which 14 billion euros are utilized now beginning of November. The situation with regards to liquidity requirements is currently easening due to the recent decline in prices on the commodity markets as well as a significant part of hedges is going to be realization over the course of this winter. While the net cash margining paid at the end of September was still quite high with 8.8 billion euros. We expect a significant release going forward if the commodity market trend continues. When it comes to supporting universe equity position, it is agreed that the German government will inject 8 billion euros in press equity through newly issued shares at an issue price of Euro 1.7 per share. Any additional need for equity will be addressed via additional tailored stabilization measures by the Federal Republic of Germany as third pillar of the stabilization package. The details of these additional support measures are currently being finalized between the federal government and UNIPE. The closing of the agreed transactions remains subject to various regulatory approvals, including state aid and merger control approvals from the EU Commission, followed by a subsequent approval by an extraordinary general meeting of UNIPE. Our aim is to convene only one EGM at the end of December that will address both the previously mentioned notification regarding the equity loss under German GAAP as well the shareholder approval of the stabilization measures. However, depending on the further implementation progress especially with regards to the outstanding EU approvals we might need to convene two separate EGMs around the year end. Now let's turn to Uniper's operating business in the first nine months of the current fiscal year. Looking at our main operating indicators, Despite the ongoing full supply containment of Russian natural gas, Juniper is on track to meet regulatory requirements at European and national level for its physical gas storages. At 88%, storage levels as of September 30th were in line with market average. Power generation in our georobin generation segment continues to show an overall flat development in line with previous quarters. Focusing only on notable developments, most of the year-to-date production growth is attributable to Uniper's coal-fired fleet with an increase of 7% compared to 2021. The development can be mainly explained by increased utilization as well as one coal power plant returning to market, both to ensure security of supply. This even overcompensates volume shortfalls related to last year's disposal of the Skopal lignite power plant, as well as temporary regulation limits on power production affecting our Maasvlakte 3 power plant in the Netherlands during the first half of 2022. The Swedish nuclear fleet was able to make up for an unavailability of the Oskarshamn power plant unit 3 at the beginning of 2022, so that volumes are overall up after nine months by 2%. Our Russian power generation segment continues its positive development with a volume growth of 21%. As already highlighted in our half-year result, this can be attributed to the full contribution of Pere Roskaja Unit 3 as well as a beneficial domestic market environment. Meanwhile, 13% increase in group wide carbon emission follows mainly the substantial increase in fossil fired power generation in the Russian segment. Subsequently, these developments are also reflected in our specific carbon intensity which increased year on year from 448 to around 487 grams CO2 per kilowatt hour. Moving over to our main financial KPIs. As you can see, all Uniper's key financials are materially impacted by the gas containment although not always to the same extent. The adjusted earnings numbers as well as operating cash flow and economic debt reflect only gas containment losses to the extent already realized, i.e. those losses relating only to delivery periods before October 2022. which amount to roughly 10 billion euros as mentioned before. Looking at adjusted EBIT and EBITDA, we see however only a decrease around 5 billion euros year on year due to offsetting effects in the business that I will come to on the next slide. With regards to adjusted net income, the realized containment losses are partly offset by a corresponding tax effect, which is determined by the high German tax rate. This explains the year-on-year deviation in adjusted net income of roughly 3.7 billion euros. When it comes to the operating cash flow, aside from the gas containment, it is also negatively impacted by working capital buildup. While a general increase in working capital at the nine-month stage is in a line with the usual seasonal pattern, the swing is significantly intensified by the high price levels this year. Therefore, the overall OCF is down by more than 13 billion euros compared to prior year. Finally, the IFRS or unadjusted net income, which decreased by about 36 billion euros year on year. Here we see a significantly higher impact from the gas containment losses in the magnitude of around 31 billion euros, reflecting both realized as well as anticipated future losses. We will have a closer look at that on one of the next slide. But first, let's dive into the key drivers of adjusted EBIT on the next slide. This chart breaks down the major effects explaining why the overall EBIT came down from prior year 614 million euros to now 4.8 billion euros. As you can see, the total deviation of about minus 5.4 billion euros between the years can be fully explained by the gas midstream business accordingly the remaining effects net almost entirely out on an overall basis let's start with the gas midstream business and break down the roughly 5.4 billion year of earnings swing between the years in this business. As explained on the right side, almost half of the €10 billion of realized gas containment losses are offset by a €4.5 billion margin shift between years. Hence, while 2022 is significantly benefiting This upside comes at the expense of future periods, in particular 2024 and 2025. The reasons for this are twofold. First, Juniper has sold gas volumes to customers for delivery in 2024 and 2025. Due to a lack of gas market liquidity for those delivery periods, Uniper could not hedge the sales with the cash purchases in the same year. Instead, Uniper did a proxy hedge by buying cash in 2022. This proxy hedge resulted in a time spread position being long in 2022 and short in the future values. As prices increase over time, the hedges in the front gain in value while the sale deals in the deck decrease in value. The second reason for the margin shift is related to our gas storages. With higher prices, the value of the gas injected into our storages and hence the value recognized on the balance sheet increase. This positive effect will revert in the future once the gas is withdrawn from the storages and the higher gas balance sheet value is reflected in the cross margin. In a simplified way, one can say that a part of the higher procurement cost today due to the gas containment has been rolled in the future years via our balance sheet storage valuation. The second element in the waterfall depicts the well-known carbon intra-year phasing effect. This effect is reflecting higher cost for CO2 emission certificates in the first nine months, which will be fully offset in Q4 when our carbon hedges settle. The absolute amount of those phasing losses that will fully revert in Q4 almost amounts to roughly 470 million euro. As the carbon facing amount was also quite high last year, we see only a small effect compared against prior year in this waterfall. The underlying business in European generation is overall on prior year's level. While the overall delta year on year is almost flat, there have been opposite movements in the underlying portfolios. Adjusted EBIT in European fossil generation corrected for the mentioned carbon facing effect increased by more than 100 million euros primary to the significantly higher contribution from the dark spread fleet. However, those gains were offset by lower contribution from our outright portfolio, primarily our Swedish hydro business. Just like at the half-year stage, we are impacted by significantly lower achieved prices driven by deteriorating EBAT, i.e. electricity price area differentials, especially in the Sundsvalls region. The negative trend is even intensified in Q3 with the price differential reaching negative levels of more than €320 per MWh end of August. This impact is also reflected in the achieved Nordic prices that are usually presented in the appendix of today's presentation. In that context, please note that the disclosed achieved and hedged prices for the German hydro portfolio actually turned negative for 2022. This is related to buybacks. As you know, we had a very dry summer in Germany with low hydro availability. As a consequence, we needed to buy previously hedged volumes back at significantly higher prices. This resulted in a negative margin, which again translates into negative prices once divided by the volumes. Next, the international commodity portfolio, which is down by roughly 340 million euros year on year due to our LNG business. As already plugged in the last call, there was an explosion at the Freeport liquid infraction factory in the USA. As a result, no LNG off-takes were taking place in Q3, which in our case meant that we missed three LNG cargoes. As those were previously hedged, we needed to buy the volumes back with significant losses. This and the fact that 2021 was an extraordinarily strong year for the international commodity business explain the significantly negative year-on-year development. When it comes to our power commodity business, we see a positive development. Here successful trading activities enabled us to increase our earnings by a double digits million amount compared with the previous year. Finally, moving over to our Russian power generation where earnings increased by more than 160 million euros versus prior year. The business continued to benefit from an overall higher utilization of the fossil fleet and significantly higher day-ahead market prices in the Siberian price zone. Additionally, higher period trees, CSA capacity payments overcompensated the negative effects from Unit 7 and 8 of the power plant Surkutskaja moving from the CSA scheme to the lower remunerated COM scheme. Additionally, the ruble exchange rate developed positively as well. Having said that, let's have a closer look at the unadjusted net income on the next slide. After nine months of 2022, Uniper has recorded an unadjusted IFRS net income of minus 40 billion euros. This slide provides you some background on the main drivers of this extreme figure by reconciling the adjusted to the unadjusted net income. As you can see here, the main effect is once again stemming from gas curtailment losses. While the adjusted earnings figures only reflect the cost of roughly 10 billion euros pre-tax, net income additionally includes anticipated future procurament losses related to gas curtailment of 31 billion euros. This figure represents expected losses for delivery periods beyond September 2022 and is based on a set of scenarios. Accordingly, adding both realized and unrealized losses, the IFRS net income ultimately reflects in total minus 41 billion euros of procurement losses related to Russian gas curtailments. Furthermore, IFRS net income is also impacted by impairments of 2.4 billion euros, which are also directly related to the Russian war and its impact on the European economy. The impairments are dominantly driven by the Nord Stream 2 loan and the goodwill related to Unipro and global commodities partly offset by impairment reversal on fossil generation assets. The next element reflects the impact from fair value measurements of derivatives. In many cases, those derivatives are hedged for universe gas and power assets. While those hedges are subject to mark-to-market valuation, the underlying asset positions are usually not. Accordingly, if market prices move, only one side of the hedge relationship is reflected in the IFRS net income. In order to avoid this accounting mismatch, Uniper's adjusted earnings figures exclude unrealized mark-to-market valuation effects. Finally, there are also some positive elements affecting net income which are predominantly tax effects on the non-operating losses. Coming to the OCF, which came in at almost minus 11 billion euros and hence more than 13 billion euros below last year. This slide highlights the drivers, why the operating cash flow development significantly more negative than the earnings this year. As you can see, the primary reason is a build up of working capital of more than 5 billion euros since beginning of the year. Mostly related to the cash midstream business and here specifically to the cash inventory. While the inventory gas volumes have gone since beginning of the year, the working capital build up is even stronger driven by the price effect as the average price of gas of our balance sheet increased by a mid-digit euro megawatt hour figure. While the gas business is by far the strongest driver for the working capital increase, The coal inventory also increased by roughly 500 million euros to ensure security of the supply of our coal fleet. Finally, the operating cash flow in 2022 continues to be burdened by liquidity optimization measures that were taken in 2021 and which effectively moved operation cash flow into 2021 at the expense of 2022. Among others, those measures included shifting payments for purchased carbon emission certificates of 2021 into the year. This effect is reflected in the other category here. Next, the development of the economic net debt. Juniper started the fiscal year 2022 with an economic net debt of close to zero. Now, after nine months, the economic net debt is at almost 11 billion euros and therefore very much in line with the operating cash flow development. The other drivers of the economic net debt offset each other. This applies also to the roughly 400 million end increase from investments, which is offset by lower pension provisions. The latter mainly result from increased interest rate in context of spiking inflation and are therefore subject to higher discount factors. For reference, the relevant interest rate used for pension provision increase in Germany within year from 1.2% to now 3.7% and in UK from 2% to 5.1% respectively. Coming now to the last slide today. Given high uncertainties regarding the short-term price developments on the energy markets and the financial burdens from the Curtay's Russian gas deliveries, I cannot provide a financial outlook in terms of adjusted EBIT etc. as of today. Instead let me provide you an outlook of the management focused topics for the next months and how we call them immediately priority actions. Stabilization Uniper and de-risking the business model is on top of our agenda. Once the full implementation of the stabilization package is completed, we will be working on a new target picture for Juniper that ensures a sustainable, sound and future-proof business model. This includes a rebalancing of our hedging approach in light of our liquidity capabilities. This is something that we have started already back in 2021 when the liquidity situation deteriorated and which we will continue to work on in the context of the changing market landscape. As mentioned before, we will also reshape our gas metering business, which, among others, includes a full de-risking with regards to Russian gas containment in 2024. The exit Russia objective will be completed once we can successfully complete the envisaged UNIPRO disposal. Contributing to security of supply for Germany and Europe is a second management objective which is high on our priority list. This includes initially expanding LNG infrastructure and supply relationship as well in the longer term, contributing to the entry into the European hydrogen economy on a broader front. And finally, we are looking forward to work with our new shareholder on a future of Juniper business. With our adjusted strategy plans in the drawer, we hope for a quick alignment in order to enter a realization phase as quickly as possible. It is particularly important to achieve clarity on Uniper's future path as soon as possible in order to keep the motivation of the Uniper's employees high. As Uniper's organization has been exposed to extraordinary stress levels now for quite some time. We need to achieve that clarity as soon as possible. This brings me to the end of my presentation today. Now I'm looking forward to taking your questions. Stefan, please.

speaker
Stefan Jost
EVP Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you Tiina. We can begin our Q&A session now. And operator, I'm handing over to you to check if there are already first questions. Please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Now we will begin our question and answer session. If you have a question for our speakers, please dial 01 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. Once your name has been announced, you can ask a question. If you find your question is answered before it is your turn to speak, you can dial 02 to cancel your question. If you're using speaker equipment today, please lift the handset before making your selection. One moment, please, for the first question. The first question comes from Sam Airy from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Oh, thank you. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for the presentation today. I feel like before I jump into any questions, I want to begin by just acknowledging what a difficult time this must have been Everyone at Unipo, congratulations on sort of finding and navigating a way through all of this. I'm sure it's been very stressful for everybody. Having said that, let me jump into my questions. I think lots of interest probably on not just the gas curtailment losses that you posed today, but the provision that you make for the future, even though, as you say, there's been some temporary relief on prices. So it'd be great if you could talk a little bit more about how you get to that sort of 30 billion additional provision. And is that consistent with, you know, maybe like another year of 100 million a day type rates or just wondering how you think about that. And then second important question, if I can, you know, you talked about needing another tailored instrument, which is under negotiation with the government on the equity side. I just wonder if you could give any more color on sort of what that might be, you know, how that impacts a few minorities that are still left. And I suppose I guess the question at some point becomes if any of these scenarios would kind of come with a mandatory squeeze out of any of the last minorities. We're not really sure what's the point in still having kind of 1% out there in a float. So it would be great to hear your thoughts on those two questions. Thank you.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sam, and good morning, and thanks also for your very kind words at the beginning. I start with the gas curtailment questions. So as we communicated, so the realized losses at the end of September were 10 billion euros, and then we had to make the provision for the future costs which we estimated to be 31 billion euros. So now I think it is good to recognize that this 31 billion euros first of all is based on the 100% of the curtailment and no in a way surcharge or levy included as this is not yet virtually certain and therefore not possible to recognize at the moment. Then according to IFRS we have provided in a way different kind of scenarios for the future and then taken the weighted average of these different scenarios. Most of the scenarios are based on the forward prices at the end of September. so of course then depending how the prices will move on particularly in the longer term now we see that the gas curtailment losses they have been based on the spot price fairly small but in general of course the longer term forwards are still fairly high but these scenarios of course we will update once we'll go further and then part of that will move to the realized losses and then the future losses will be reflected based on the prices, what is the volume and then potential mechanism to replace the surcharges. Then other question about the tailored instrument. So this is something what we have intensively worked with the German government and the main target is to replace the withdrawal of the gas surcharge. The size of the instrument of course is under discussion but basically it should reflect the economic losses incurred from the gas containment. and the mechanism under discussion but as the shirts are so the instrument would put in place while we know that what are the actual losses or the losses in the near period. So basically amount roughly now if looking so the future 30 billion But we start with the shorter-term outlook for this year and coming quarter, so roughly 12 billion.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Okay.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

We will communicate more once we are further defining the mechanism. But basically, key element is to replace the churchyard and, of course, then secure our equity position.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Sorry, Tina, can I just quick follow up on that one? And a very short answer is fine, but I suppose what we're just trying to think about is when that instrument is agreed, is that likely to be a positive for the remaining shareholders or a negative? So I suppose the gas levy would have been a positive because it was bringing more money back to Uniper from the rest of the German industry, whereas if it's more money from the government that comes with more dilution, then it would probably be a negative. I'm just trying to think whether... this instrument is positive or negative for shareholders. You see what I mean? Thank you.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

I fully understand. So unfortunately, it is too early to discuss, and I do want to speculate on that one. So we will come back once we know more. But your concerns and points are very relevant and also discussed with the German government.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Well, thank you so much. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thanks. Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from Louis from other VHS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Louis
Analyst

Yes, hi, thank you very much for taking my question. Good morning to everyone. I have two there maybe to try to understand a little bit more, even if you don't provide guidance, what could be the expectation for 2022 and eventually a bit later on. When I look at your slide, page 3, I understand that eventually it could be expected considering the short-term gas prices. that the fourth quarter could be a bit better than initially anticipated, taking profit off the low spot gas prices and being able to sell them at a better price that would eventually offset a little bit to the potential loss that could have been expected in 2022. But at the same time, you refer that you have some significant shift in margin in the longer term, meaning 23 to 25 for $4 billion or something like that, that are already recorded and booked there. So what does that mean for your target where you mentioned, I think it was the last quarter, that by 2024 you should be breakeven because it means that you will have higher losses maybe later on and maybe fewer than initially anticipated. Could you confirm that this is the correct way to see the move considering the current spot gas prices? This would be my first question. And the second question regarding the total liabilities that needs to be expected. We are talking about 31 billion that you compute in potential losses on IFRS level, plus, of course, the 10 billion that is now seen. So you have reached a level at which it was supposed that you trigger the potential offsetting measures. So shall we consider that under 31 billions? the most likely scenario is that 90% of it is going to be absorbed or it is also still to be discussed and to be negotiated with the government at this stage. Thank you very much.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you for the question. So starting with the guidance for 2022 and what is our, in a way, provision, what is, in a way, anticipated for the future losses so quite right this 31 billion euros is only a snapshot of the current current situation on that day's prices and what we can see that in the near near term the prices really they have have increased but already now the day plus one has already come up from 30 to 60 euros so this is really something what is volatile volatile and we clearly measure measure that very carefully then the outlook for 2023 and 2024 so clearly will depend the overall market development and also what is the final stabilization package and how it will will work The earningship clearly plays a role how we have placed our hedges and how the earnings will land to the different years. So unfortunately, I cannot give the precise numbers. However, our ambition still remains unchanged. So we aim to be EBIT positive during the year 2024. Thank you, thank you very much. Also the 31 billion euros, so is it, that is in a way the roughly, the size of the, in a way the good a mental losses and and then how how much is compensated so this is this is really under the discussion and of course it will depend the performance of the the other part of the businesses and the final final amount I think the important thing is to that we have the liquidity and then that the equity position is secured but we will come back hopefully hopefully soon how this tailored instrument will work.

speaker
Louis
Analyst

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press 01 on your telephone to keep that. Thank you for holding. We have another question from Sam Airy from UBS. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Hi. Well, if there aren't too many questions, I thought I would come back on and perhaps ask you guys a sort of wider question about the European gas outlook. I think you have, obviously, a pretty unique perspective on that. And I guess there are two questions that we're hearing a lot. One is about this winter and relates to, I suppose, what's the risk that we actually run out of gas and storage in the later part of the winter? And I know obviously we've benefited from warmer weather and a better situation in the last month or so. But I'm wondering if you could just share your sort of traders or commodity teams view on the risks through to the end of this winter. And then secondly, the other big question is about next winter. And I do sense a little bit of debate in the market about whether winter 23, 24 will be worse or better than the current winter. And I suppose the concern is that we have to refill storages next year without access to the Russian pipelines that we had this year when we were filling storage. But on the other hand, the LNG market looks a bit more supportive. The company demand is adjusting. Whether it's been helpful So I just wonder if it would be the sort of Uniper team's view that next winter is a worse risk for Europe than this coming winter, or whether it might be actually slightly better. I'd love to get your perspective on those questions. Thank you.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thank you, Sam. Really, the gas outlook also on our radar in careful look. So basically what comes to this winter, so we can say that the storages are in good level. So of course that gives in somehow the comfort. However, it is all about the weather. So what is the weather? How much is needed for the heating? So that will play out the key role. Then clearly when it comes to the next winter, 2023, 2024, so the storages will be quite empty after this winter. And then the question is that how do we refill the storages? So as you said, no gas anticipated from Russia, but then Asia, LNG, it is really really the key, and this is the part where we are also working heavily with the FSRU terminals and getting the supplies. So this is the focus to really be prepared and do this transformation in the shift manner.

speaker
Sam Airy
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate your comments.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Wanda Serwinovska from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

speaker
Wanda Serwinovska
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi, good morning. Wanda Serwinovska, Credit Suisse. A very quick question. Can you update us on the process of disposal of UniPRO? Is there any new development? Any comments would be much, much appreciated.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, Wanda. So the situation is pretty much the same as we reported during the Q2. We mentioned we made the strategic review at the end of last year where the direction was to exit Unipro. While the situation is very challenging in the Russian market, so we have continued evaluation of the topics, but you can understand we are not commenting any individual discussion. Of course, the great performance of our Unipro assets increase the interest from different parties, so in that sense gives the good basis to take that forward.

speaker
Wanda Serwinovska
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. I have a very quick follow-up. Assuming that you are successful in selling Unipro either later this year or next year, are you confident of making transfers of money outside Russia given all the sanctions?

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Well, the current regulation in a way prohibits the money transfers, so this is something what we need to then then work out how to do and what kind of permits or arrangements could be done. But currently, the sanctions in a way is not allowing that.

speaker
Wanda Serwinovska
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Vincent Ariel from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

speaker
Vincent Ariel
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yes, good morning. Apologies, I missed the beginning as we had Orsted as well this morning. Just a very quick question. We can see that you've increased the provisions for future losses and the estimate is around 40 billion. Clearly, that has repercussions in terms of a super package. Is it fair to assume that you will need a very material capital increase beyond the 8 billion, which has been agreed in your second round of bailouts. So could we have a bailout 2.1 with actual capital increase getting closer to 30 plus billion euros? Although that works in terms of a balance sheet and need for a quick injection. Thank you.

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Good morning. Good morning, Vincent. So, so, uh, 40 billion, uh, containment losses now, you know, are recognized in, in accounts, 10 billion as a realized, and then the 30, 30 billion, uh, for the future based on the snapshot prices as of 30th of September. So this, this value, um, clearly, then will move based on the curtailed volumes and then the prices. As stated previously, the full package and particularly the tailor-made instrument is under discussion and it's too early to speculate exactly the value. think it is what is important is that the german government has committed to provide the funding as we have seen the kfw credit facility lines increased and then also if more equity is is needed and clearly at least to replace the the share chart so something some instrument is needed so so uh that that we will come back later on but the full full package in a way securing the going concern and good, in a way, basis to continue the transformation.

speaker
Vincent Ariel
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Thank you. I may rephrase the question. Uniper is still a listed company with minority shareholders. uh has been put in a position um basically forced into losses not being able to call force measure or to pass through by the government and uh the government said okay we have a bailout one uh and there'll be no more economic dilution for shareholders but then bailouts two came in september and there was a massive delusion with a massive capital increase uh but the this was supposed to be kind of the end of the story as the Gavrili was coming and then the overall thing was sized for the expected loss of Unico going forward. Now, the Gavrili got canceled and the ongoing losses are therefore multiplied by 10. So there will be need for further support. If there is any comfort you can bring for minority shareholders in terms of them not being economically diluted further, Have you heard from the government that somehow they felt bad for what they did for minority shelters? Is there any protection for shelters other than 14 years?

speaker
Tiina Tuomela
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thanks for the very good question. Clearly, I think we live unprecedented times and fast-changing environments. Therefore, I think it has been good that the stabilisation package has been adjusted. I clearly understand your concern, what is the outcome of the stabilisation package. But that is really dependent on our discussions, but also the German government and EU Commission discussion about state aid and merger control. So I would keep that the current instrument, so 8 billion euros equity confirmed, also the KfW line confirmed and very well executed with the high amounts, and then the tailored instrument is under working, which should replace the churchyard mechanism. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions. I will now give back the floor to our speakers. Thank you.

speaker
Stefan Jost
EVP Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you very much for attending today our call and speak soon at different occasions. um and latest at all for the release next february but thanks for attending today thank you all ladies and gentlemen thank you for your attendance this call has been concluded you may now disconnect

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