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Uniper Se

Q12023

5/4/2023

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Uniper analyst and investor conference call Q1 2023 interviewing results. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions via the telephone. Please ensure to dial into the phone lines with the details provided to you. To ask the question, please press star 11 on your telephone keypad. May I now hand over to Stefan Joost, who will start the meeting today. Please go ahead.

speaker
Stefan Joost
Moderator

Good morning, the analysts and investors. I would like to welcome you to this morning's conference call on Unipress results of the first quarter in 2023. I'm very pleased to also welcome our new CFO, Jutta Dünges, who is with me here today for the first time since joining Unipress Board of Management as CFO on the 1st of March. As most of you know, Jutta joined the Board of Management after leaving Uniper's supervisory board, where she has been a member since December last year. Jutta is a well-known leader in the finance community and has a strong and long track record in the capital market, in the area as Managing Director of the German Finance Agency in Frankfurt until last year. Jutta will guide you through today's conference call and give you an overview of our key results of the first quarter 2023, the first quarter after Uniper's successful stabilization end of 2022. As usual, there will also be a Q&A session at the end. Jutta, over to you, please.

speaker
Jutta Dünges
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Stefan, for your kind introduction and also a warm welcome to all of you from my side. It's a privilege to be here as new CFO of Uniper. and to guide you through our first quarter results for the fiscal year 2023. Before doing this, let me simply say, I am very much looking forward to work with you in the future and hope to be able to meet many of you in person soon. Let me also share a few first impressions since taking office in March. The first weeks as CFO of Uniper have been intensive, exciting, and highly motivating for me. Getting to know a new organization, many new colleagues with exceptionally high expertise and motivation. This is especially true after Uniper experienced an extraordinary and stressful year 2022. Thus, it will be my focus to further stabilize Uniper and work together with my fellow colleagues to help leading this strong company into a new successful phase. As a first step today, I am pleased to present you strong results of the first quarter 23. Before I dive into the numbers, let me give you a short overview over some important developments in the first quarter. Unifest Supervisory Board has successfully completed the search for a new Board of Management during Q1 23. Mike Lewis, will become Uniper's CEO as of July 1st, the latest. Holger Kreetz has taken over as new COO in parallel to my start as CFO on March 1st. Nikten Hollander has decided to leave Uniper. His successor, Carsten Poppinger, will join Uniper as of October 1st, as the latest. Uniper's new management board is fully committed to revive Uniper's strength and lead the company into a successful future. We are focused on further stabilizing Uniper and working with full speed on the development of a new strategy. Now let me give a short overview of the highlights of the first quarter 23. In the first quarter, Uniper made more progress in restoring its financial basis than one could have anticipated two months ago. Operationally, this is driven by two main effects, the optimization of our flexible asset base in a volatile market environment and the sharp decline of the gas price, leading to Uniper in aggregate not incurring further losses in the first quarter 23 from procuring replacement gas volumes. Adjusted EBIT came out at €749 million, following a weak and loss-making first quarter in the prior year. Also, adjusted net income advanced clearly into the profit zone. In line with the sharp decline in gas prices since the fourth quarter 22, Unipa's financial obligation of having to replace missing gas volumes has also decreased significantly. In the current market environment, Unipa does not incur additional losses from replacement gas procurement due to reduced gas supplies from Russia. However, If gas prices were to turn significantly upward, the financial burden for Unipa could still weigh heavy on Unipa's financials, with potential swings still in the billion euros range. A potential need for additional capital injections in the next quarters cannot be completely ruled out at this point in time. Authorized capital of 19.5 billion euros is still available from the German government to compensate for potential losses from procurement of replacement gas volumes. While the topic of additional state report is losing relevance, UNIPER is progressing with its obligations from the EU state aid decision. As already communicated in our yearly results, UNIPER has signed an agreement to divest its marine fuel trading business in the United Arab Emirates as well as its 20% indirect participation in the BVL gas pipeline. Unipa continues to fulfill all its proposal obligations stemming from the remedy measures of the EU state aid approval. On the next slide, you can see the positive effects of falling commodity market prices and the good operating result on Unipa's financial recovery. Unipac Group's equity position materially recovered since its lows in autumn 22 and stands at roughly 11 billion euros at the end of Q1 23. This brings us de facto back to the pre-crisis equity levels, but swings against the back of the volatile market environments are still possible. What were the main drivers here? Number one, The provisions in connection with Russian gas replacement, which are calculated using a scenario-based approach on the reporting date, have mainly been resolved on the back of the lower gas prices and the declining exposure over time. Second, the bond's equity injection in Q4 last year. And thirdly, a derivative accounting that in times of falling commodity market prices has given a positive spin to the group's profits as the so-called accounting mismatch between fair value hedges and cost-accounted assets continuously decreased. The downturn in the commodity market has also provided further relief to Uniper's liquidity situation. The net cash margining procession has improved quarter on quarter by more than 3 billion euros and is now standing at shortly under 1 billion euros. By the same token, Uniper's available financing instruments continue to provide Uniper with headroom to maneuver in the markets and to be prepared in case of adverse market defects. Current drawing of €3 billion from the €16.5 billion KfW facilities provides Uniper ample financing headroom. Now over to the Q1 results in more detail. Let's start with the overview of Unipa's main operating indicators. First quarter 23 results reflect reduced demand for power and gas in our core European markets. The fact that Unipa nevertheless recorded such a sound operating result was primarily driven by effective hedging transactions and our successful trading activities in a downward but still very volatile market price environment. starting with our gas business. Contrary to concerns in the wider public, there was no physical gas shortage in Germany and Europe over the last winter, which would have required forced supply cuts. Gas withdrawal from our gas storages in the past winter season was remarkably low, in part because sufficient alternative sourcing, particularly through LNG, was available on the European gas market. The better than expected European gas supply demand balance is reflected in spot prices that have continued to fall since early January. On the financial side, this provides us with more flexibility for our operating activities. Compared to last year, we will need to invest less working capital to fill our gas storages for next winter. The capital requirement for margining from hedging activities, i.e. providing financial collaterals until delivery, is significantly lower than last year. Our European generation business recorded a double-digit percentage decline in power production overall. The nonetheless and extraordinarily strong earnings contribution was therefore not volume driven, but driven by higher prices, spreads, and portfolio optimization. More details in my remarks on earnings in a minute. Our fossil-fired power plant supplies largely followed the trend of falling overall electricity consumption in Europe. The exception here, in the UK, we were able to mark excellent use of the flexibility of our gas-fired power plants, which produced about 15% more in the first quarter of 23, in an exceptionally volatile market environment. In Germany, Uniper has kept three coal-fired plants coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 1.6 gigawatts on the market to support security of supply before these plants are scheduled to be taken off the market by April 24 at the latest. The outright portfolio with hydro and nuclear recorded an overall double-digit decline in output. Lower water inflow volumes at the Swedish hydropower stations and a prolonged unavailability of the Ringhals IV nuclear unit contributed to this decline. On the positive side, the German hydro fleet produced 8% more. Overall, the lower power generation was accompanied by a reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions, which were almost in line with the generated electricity, 15% lower than in the comparable prior year quarter. 22 and 23 are influenced by the energy crisis. We continue to work further on transforming our power generation mix and continue to follow our emission reduction path with great efforts in 24 and beyond. Let's now move over to the key financials for the first quarter of 2023 financial year. The comparison numbers for the prior year are adjusted for the classification of our Russian power business as discontinued operations. The sound operating results in the first quarter of 2023 reflect the improved business environment and allow Uniper to focus on the future. In contrast to the two previous quarters, the extraordinary earnings impact from the replacement procurement of Russian gas no longer had a visible effect on group earnings in the first quarter. Looking at adjusted EBIT and adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of the 23 financial year, the earnings performance is positive overall. I'll get to the key results drivers on the next slide. Operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2023 developed in line with the development of operating earnings and stands at 727 million euros. Adjusted net income in the first quarter of 2023 improved by around 1.1 billion euros from a week prior year figure. In the calculation of adjusted EBIT to adjusted net income, significantly higher economic interest expense was recognized compared to the prior year, due to high financing requirements and higher interest rates. As a side note, the income taxes according to the IFRS consolidated income statement are mainly related to deferred tax effects which are not cash effective. Due to Uniper's large trading business with volatile price developments and cut-off state valuations, The IFRS net profit again shows an enormous swing, this time with plus 10 billion euros, adding up to a net profit of 6.7 billion euros in the first quarter of 2023. Declining gas and electricity market prices at the cut-off date are now acting as a material positive driver for the mark-to-market valuation of derivatives and thus for the group's net income. Another major contributor to the very positive net income is the main reversal of a non-current provision for onerous contracts, recognized in the previous year for possible losses in the gas portfolio following the complete discontinuation of gas deliveries from Russia, coupled with continuing obligations to customers revalued at the back of applied current price scenarios. Nevertheless, Given the prevailing significant risk in the commodity markets, it cannot be ruled out that commodity prices surge again. However, this risk diminishes with each additional gas molecule delivered to our contract customers. After the economic net debt already showed a significant recovery as a result of the cash equity injection of the German government in December 22, the debt has now decreased further, fueled by a positive operating cash flow. On the next slide, I will dive into the key drivers of adjusted EBIT. This waterfall graph clearly shows that the European generation segment portfolio was by far the most important earnings driver for the adjusted group EBIT in the first quarter of 23. In general, it shows again that Uniper has been capable in harvesting additional earnings in a volatile market environment. As a result of successful hedging and optimization transactions, we were able to lock in high spreads with our fossil power plants. The return of the Heidenhard coal-fired power plant to commercial operation in the third quarter of 22 had an additional positive effect. Also, the impact on earnings of the known carbon phasing effect during the year was significantly lower than in Q1 of the previous year, as a result of relatively stable certificate prices and a lower demand for carbon emission allowances. However, declining electricity prices and falling spreads combined with a cautious hedging policy should lead to a return to normal earnings developments in our spread portfolio in the coming quarters. With respect to our outright power portfolio, above all, in Q123, locked-in hedge prices have increased in Nordic hydro and nuclear businesses. The outlook here is also to the positive. While forward hedging ratios in our Nordic business was only slightly higher overall compared to the previous quarter, hedged prices in particular rose by about 5 euro per megawatt hour to 40 euro 36 euro per megawatt hour for the years 24 and 25 respectively. As for our Nordic business, this positive quarterly result was also supported by lower price distortions between the systemic price and the Swedish price zones, the so-called electricity price area differences or EPAD effect. In addition, Flexibility was used in our Nordic hydro power plants to lock in attractive margins in the spot market. The German hydro earnings contribution has also increased. Here, the support came from higher returns in the regulated business, which is not reflected in the posted merchant hedge price. The recorded very low average achieved prices in the first quarter of 23 reflects the costly hedge buyback last year to adjust for lower water availability. Coming to the global commodities segment. Global commodities delivered improved earnings compared to the previous year, but remained in negative territory. The special effect from the gas replacement for Russian gas in the first quarter did not have a significant impact on earnings. In the sub-segment gas, relatively low gas supplies and timing effects resulting from the exceptional price developments of the previous year had a negative impact. Starting with relatively comfortable gas filling levels into the coming season, the gas optimization team has laid the foundation for some catch-up effects in the coming quarters. The two global commodities subsegments, international and power, made a high contribution to earnings in the first quarter. The increase stemmed mainly from the commodity power business with optimization and power trading, which benefited from the volatile market environment. The international sub-segment continued the exceptionally strong performance of the prior year quarter. In particular, the global LNG business benefited from the market environment despite further burdens from the delayed resumption of contractually fixed deliveries from the US LNG Liquefaction Hub report. Here, the US operator had received approval from the authorities to restart at the end of February 23. The earnings block other in the first quarter mainly reflects the elimination of intersegment profits and valuation effects of carbon emission allowances used for fossil power generation, which are held in stock collectively until handed over to the National Emissions Trading Authority. I would now like to turn to operating cash flow. Coming to the operating cash flow, which came in at 727 million euros. In the quarter under review, operating profit and operating cash flow were on par with cash conversion of a good 100%. The working capital development is positive and has developed in line with the seasonal development of energy deliverance and withdrawals from our gas inventories. The item other mainly contains the net impact of the provisions for carbon emission allowances. Now to the latest figures of UNIQA's economic net debt. At year end 22, economic net debt stood at 3 billion euros. At the end of the first quarter 23, the net debt balance improved to 2.3 billion euros in line with the positive operating cash flow. Capital expenditure remained at the restrained level of the prior year. At the end of the reporting quarter, Uniper showed net financial position of just 11 million euros. Provisions for pensions decreased slightly in the first quarter. The overall discount rate increased only minimally compared with the reporting date at the end of December 22. The discount rate for Germany was 3.8% and for the UK, 4.9%. Asset retirement obligations, AROs, which had increased significantly in the previous year mainly to the increase in nuclear provisions, were also stable in Q1 23. I would like to conclude my presentation with an update on the given outlook of the key earnings drivers for fiscal year 23. The outlook given in February 23 against the backdrop of incalculable earnings effects now appears rather conservative. For the outlook for the full year 23, we expect a strong earnings recovery compared to the last year. resulting in a positive adjusted EBIT and adjusted net income for the group. This outlook will remain subject to market price developments during the remainder of the financial year 2023 in an overall continuously volatile and uncertain business environment. The financial impact caused by the replacement of Russian gas supplies will remain the decisive swing factor for Uniper's group earnings development in 2023. we are working to further minimize the risk for the remaining obligations here. This development is however not fully in our own hands. For this reason, I will limit myself today to making a few qualitative statements on the outlook for the full year 23. For the European generation segment, we expect better results compared to last year following the recorded exceptionally strong first quarter. Drivers here are the high spreads we have locked in for the first half of 23 in particular. For the outright business, we expect earnings to move up clearly above the weak levels of the recent year. This results from increased hedge prices, which should be less diluted by special charges and more flexibility to generate additional earnings in spot markets. We expect the global commodities segment to achieve a better operating result compared to last year. In gas optimization, we expect catch-up effects for the remaining quarters following the optically weak result in Q1. However, we are unlikely to match the high prior year results due to negative follow-up timing effects and gas optimization. Based on the excellent first quarter and the resumption of Freeport's LNG cargoes, the LNG business should contribute earnings well above normal. Overall, The good operating result in the core business and restoring the balance sheet is a very good basis for the new Uniper Management Board to be able to focus now on the future development of the Uniper business model. At the top of my agenda for the upcoming weeks and months are in particular two topics. The remedy measures agreed between the German government and the EU Commission, in particular the sale of specified assets by the end of 26 at the latest, and the number of market opening remedies, including to adjust our long-term gas contract portfolio, are to be implemented as quickly as possible. The new Board of Management will present a renewed strategy to all stakeholders as quickly as possible in order to give leeway how UNIQOR can fulfill its mission long-term as a reliable energy supplier in a strongly changing landscape. So please stay tuned for further announcement of Uniper in the next couple of months. This brings me to the end of our presentation today. I hand back to Stefan.

Disclaimer

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