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Uniper Se

Q12025

5/6/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Uniper Analyst and Investor Conference Call, First Quarter Results 2025. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in the listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by dialing star 1 on your telephone. May I now hand you over to the Executive Vice President of Investor Relations, Sebastian Veidt, who will start the meeting today. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sebastian Veidt
Executive Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. Dear investors and analysts, good morning. I'm pleased to welcome you to our conference call on the first quarter results 2025. Next to me on today's call is Jutta Dunges, our chief financial officer. And Jutta will lead you through the presentation today. As usual, there will be a Q&A session after the presentation. And now let me hand over Toyota, join us, please.

speaker
Jutta Dunges
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sebastian. I would also like to welcome you and wish you all a good morning. Let me start with the key financial highlights of the first quarter. As we expected, we had a slow start into the financial year 2025. When we presented our outlook for fiscal 2025 back in February, we already flagged a seasonal earnings pattern with strong back-end bias. The decline in earnings was affected by two major factors, which together led to adjusted EBITDA for the group of minus 139 million euros and an adjusted net income of minus 143 million euros in the first quarter of 2025. Firstly, Q1 of the previous year was still boosted by very strong hedging margins. Above all in the flexible generation business and by the gas curtailment gains, which had a very positive extraordinary effect last year. And secondly, gas midstream margins were burdened by past optimization activities in the gas portfolio and withdrawals of high-priced inventory gas, which weighed on the results. Most of this negative impact has been absorbed already in the figures for the first quarter. I will follow up on this with some more details shortly. For the full year 2025, we are fully on track to deliver on our 2025 outlook. For the Uniper Group, we confirm the outlook for adjusted EBITDA in the range of 900 million to 1.3 billion euros and adjusted net income in the range of 250 million to 550 million euros. Our financial situation remains strong with an economic net cash position of 2.6 billion euros at the end of March. even after fulfilling the 2.6 billion euros contractual recovery claims of the Federal Republic of Germany from the 2022 stabilization package in March 2025. This means that together with the 530 million euros payment in 2024 from realized claims for damages against gas from export, we have paid back a total of 3.1 billion euros to the Federal Republic of Germany. we have continued to drive forward the strategic development of the group. A financial investment decision was made for the signing of new LNG long-term supply contracts. In the flexible generation business, our operations in Sweden and the UK reported notable successes in the first quarter of 2025. In Sweden, we brought back into operation the 448 megawatt gas-fired power plant in March 25 at the request of the Swedish TSO for the security reserve for southern Sweden. And in the UK, we were again successful in the regular British T-4 capacity auction for the delivery years 28-29. All our power plants with a total spare capacity of 4.4 gigawatts have been awarded a contract at a remuneration price of 60 British pounds per kilowatt. This will correspond to an earnings contribution of about 300 million euros in this future period. Our UK power plant portfolio is an important earnings driver and earnings stabilizer for Uniper's non-wholesale result with an increasing contribution from the capacity market scheme. To ensure security of supply in times of shrinking amounts of dispatchable power generation, Capacity market mechanisms are increasingly becoming an essential component of electricity market design in Central Europe. Therefore, the new German government's political plans to improve future system security by introducing a capacity market and implementing a new power plant strategy is heading into the right direction. Now over to the next slide where I comment what Uniper can offer here. The new German government pledged to build up to 20 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants by 2030, which should be aligned with a newly launched capacity market scheme. We also appreciate plans to adopt a legislative package for carbon capture and storage, including for gas-fired power plants, which could materially expand the scope for reducing German carbon emissions. We expect that the German government will now initiate a swift and pragmatic tendering process for the construction of power plants, with first tenders to be issued early 2026. Flexible generation is core to universe DNA, which reaches back more than a century. On the back of our longstanding experience and expertise, Uniper stands ready to become a strong contributor to implementing the power plant strategy and ensuring Germany's future energy supply. Uniper has the necessary financial resources, personnel, and expertise to get large projects off the ground quickly. And as the map on this slide shows, Uniper has a number of excellent sites with existing infrastructure well integrated into the grid Above all, in southwest of Germany, the future capacity additions will be essential. In terms of conventional power plant capacity, i.e. excluding solar, PV, and wind power, our market share is currently around 10%. And our ambition is to be part of the solution for the energy transformation in Germany and to keep our market share. Now, let's move on to the next slide and the latest developments on the European gas market and the impact on Uniper. The European gas market remains challenging for all market players due to geopolitical tensions and unclear developments in European energy supply. Today's summer winter spreads are still not very attractive, and the outlook for a reviving gas demand is subdued at the back of a weak economic environment. High gas withdrawals in Europe, temporarily negative summer winter spreads during last winter, And ongoing discussions around the right regulatory framework fuel uncertainty in the market, accompanied by factors like demand development or weather conditions. In this context, we welcome the decision by the German government from last week to lower the filling level requirements. And next, we expect also on EU level a decision to create the necessary clarity. Our group outlook for fiscal year 2025 had already incorporated an exceptionally weak contribution from our gas midstream business. During our full year 2024 call back in February, we flagged that Uniper's Q1 2025 result would turn out weak. At that point, the high withdrawals from Uniper storage facilities were already expected. As shown on this slide, Uniper's gas filling levels fell sharply and broadly in line with the market in the first quarter of 2025, from about 80% at the end of 2024 to 27% at the end of March 2025. Gas volumes, now withdrawn from storages, were stored at a time of high gas prices during the crisis years. And due to low storage turnover, substantial gas volumes were still in stock until the end of 2024. Hence, substantial gas deliveries during the peak winter season at the time of declining gas prices had a negative impact on Unipass gas midstream business in the first quarter 2025. Gas deliveries in the first quarter also included gas forward contracts with B2B customers that were already concluded during the crisis years and were also subject to procurement optimization in the past. For the remainder of fiscal year 2025, we expect LNG-related forward contracts in the gas midstream business to make a significant positive contribution to operating profit, which should cushion the losses recorded in the greener commodities segment in the first quarter. Overall, 2026 is expected to be the first fiscal year in which negative effects from crisis years will have been digested. Unifor's gas midstream business should then return to a more normalized business performance, which will be shaped by current market trends and strategic actions for the greener commodity segment. Developing a strong procurement and supply portfolio is essential for managing geopolitical disruptions. This includes a larger and more diversified international LNG portfolio. In mid-April 2025, Unipress signed two new LNG contracts with the Australian gas player Woodside, each for around 14 terawatt hours per year supply until 2039, after already concluding pipeline gas supply agreements with ConocoPhillips and OMV just recently. A better sourcing mix should also strengthen Unipress gas sales entity to fulfill Unipress role as one of the most important European gas suppliers with a B2B Germany candid annual sales volume of up to 200 terawatt hours. And let us now turn to our quarterly figures in more detail on the following slides. As I mentioned at the beginning of this call and already flagged during our last call, We are starting the financial year 2025 with a very modest quarter and an unusual seasonal pattern, especially for the earnings of our gas midstream business that will be more back-end biased throughout this financial year. The adjusted EBITDA and the adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2025 came in significantly below prior year. We have informed the capital market about these effects in an ad hoc release on April the 24th. The decline is due to a normalization of our earnings related to our power generation business because of less favorable commodity price developments and weaker power generation hedging compared to exceptional profit heights in 23 and 2024. In addition, the greener commodity segment is waiting on the bottom line. due to a negative gas midstream result as a downside to the success achieved in optimizing the gas portfolio in previous quarters, and overall higher gas acquisition costs for the withdrawal of highly priced gas volumes, as I already explained on the previous slide. Nevertheless, let me reiterate, these results are fully in line with our expectations. And accordingly, we are reaffirming our outlook for the full year 2025, which we published with a full year 24 figures back in February this year. On the following slides, I will discuss our figures and the respective drivers in more detail. Let's start with the adjusted EBITDA on the next slide. The reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 shows a significant year-on-year decline in earnings across all our segments, reflecting a normalization of Unipass results after two exceptional financial years. Let's start with the segment greener commodities, which posted an operating loss of 492 million euros for the first quarter of 2025. The decline in adjusted EBITDA of almost 490 million euros compared with the first quarter of the previous year is primarily attributable to the effects in the gas portfolio, outlined above, and the lapse of the gas curtailment gains, which amounted to about 140 million euros in the first quarter of 2024. And it's already explained, looking ahead, Greener commodities is expected to improve throughout the financial year and continue to normalize, coupled with a new strategic focus that is based on adding more long-term contracts to our portfolio with diversified counterparties and geographies to be less dependent on sourcing via the hub at market prices. Our flexible generation business achieved a satisfactory adjusted EBITDA of €161 million in the first quarter of 2025, which is nevertheless well below the record results from the previous year. After benefiting from the very high spreads, which we had logged in in the past, the decline in commodity prices and spreads for gas and coal-fired power generation is now reflected in our results, leading to a year-on-year decline of roughly €450 million in the first quarter 2025, versus first quarter of 2024. Next to a weaker power hedging result, Q1 was also burdened by lower earnings contributions due to a reduced fossil fuel power plant portfolio because of the decommissioning of Redcliffe and Haydn and a transfer to the reserve of Staudinger 5, Scholven B and C coal-fired power plants, as well as the sale of the Gönnü gas-fired power plant. the lower volumes were partially offset by higher demand at the British and Dutch power plants. With 246 million euros, the green generation segment made the largest positive contribution to our adjusted EBITDA results for the first quarter of 2025, and with a delta of minus 32 million euros, was only slightly below the prior year level. Following a mild winter, water reservoirs in Sweden reached exceptionally high levels, leading to high water flows that have a bearish effect on power prices, especially in the northern regions of Sweden. Accordingly, the price decline had a negative impact of almost 80 million euros on our outright business in Sweden. This effect was partially offset by an improved hydro result in Germany of more than 50 million euros, plus year-on-year on the back of favorable market developments in the first quarter 25. Despite a negative price trend in Sweden, our overall outlook for the green generation segment is positive. As announced in February, we are still convinced that we will achieve a higher result compared to last year. As the fourth quarter in 2024 was negatively impacted by the changes of nuclear provisions, that we do not expect to repeat this year. I would like to briefly mention the hedging figures in the appendix. Not much has changed compared to the last reporting for outer years 26 and 27. However, for this year 25, including the chief prices and volumes of the first quarter, we are already 85% hedged in Germany and 75% hedged in Sweden at a price of 126 euros per megawatt hour and 38 hours per hour. per megawatt hour, respectively, limiting the exposure to further decreasing prices due to high water inflows. Slide 8 now shows the reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2025. The key messages when looking at this slide are, firstly, at 134 million euros, we have 20 million euros lower depreciation and amortization than in the first quarter of the previous year. This is due to the high impairments recorded mainly in our fossil fleet and gas storage facilities, as well as the closure of plants in 2024, leading to a lower base for depreciation in 2025. And secondly, we have positive economic interest and other financial results of 89 million euros which was significantly supported by interest effects on the valuation of long-term provisions mainly for our hydropower business compared to the first quarter of the prior year. And thirdly, income tax on the operating result of 48 million euros corresponds to an operating tax rate of 26.4% for the first quarter of 2025. Now over to the operating cash flow on the next slide. Slide number nine shows the reconciliation of the adjusted EBITDA to the operating cash flow for the first quarter 2025. For the first three months of 2025, the operating cash flow came in at minus 1.1 billion euros. As the waterfall chart clearly shows, the negative operating cash flow is driven significantly by the fulfillment of the payment obligations toward the Federal Republic of Germany. As publicly announced in March and highlighted during our last call, we had to repay almost 2.6 billion euros to the Federal Republic of Germany in accordance with the stabilization package for Uniper in 2024, which were settled in full on March 11th, with a negative effect on the operating cash flow. This is partially offset by lower requirements for working capital, driven by less capital employed for stored gas volumes, in line with higher withdrawals in the first quarter of 25, with a positive effect of almost 1.8 billion euros. Now, on the next page, the latest figures on Unipass economic net debt. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Uniper has an economic net cash position in the comfortable amount of almost 2.6 billion euros, which came down from an economic net cash position of 3.4 billion euros at the end of the financial year 2024. This development is in line with a negative operating cash flow of minus 1.1 billion euros, which I explained on the previous slide. And beyond, we also made investments in the amount of 177 million euros, and settled cash-effective divestments, mainly for the gas-fired power plant Gönnü, in the amount of €268 million during the first quarter. The other block mainly includes the change in asset retirement obligations and consolidation effects. Lastly, I would like to conclude my presentation today with a confirmation of the given outlook for fiscal year 2025 on slide 11. We continue to expect a group-adjusted EBITDA in the range of 900 million euros to 1.3 billion euros. For the group-adjusted net income, we continue to anticipate a range of 250 million euros to 550 million euros. But let me briefly summarize. We had a modest start into the year, which is in line with our expectations. reflecting last impacts from the crisis, 2022, and a normalization of our power businesses due to less favorable commodity price developments. For the full year 2025, we confirm our previously published adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income outlook. And with that, I hand over back to you, Sebastian, to kick off the Q&A session. Sebastian, please.

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