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Uniper Se

Q42025

3/11/2026

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Uniper Analysts and Investor Conference call for the full year 2025. At our request, this conference will be recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions by dialing star 1 on your telephone. May I now hand you over to the Executive Vice President, Group Finance and Investor Relations, Sebastian Feig, who will start the meeting today.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Sebastian Feig
Executive Vice President, Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to welcome you to our results call for the financial year 2025. Next to me on today's call are Michael Lewis, our chief executive officer, and Christian Barr, our chief financial officer. Michael will guide you through our key developments in the past financial year 2025 and our plans going forward. And Christian will walk you through our financial performance for 2025 and the outlook for this year. As usual, we will wrap up with a Q&A session at the end. And now, let's hand over to Michael Lewis, please.

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Sebastian, and good morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome from my side, and thanks for dialing in today. Before we start with a recap of the past financial year, I'd like to just begin with a few opening remarks. And importantly, the 1st of January, 2026, marked Uniper's 10th anniversary and we're very proud that despite breaking geopolitical upheavals, Uniper has ensured energy security for Germany and Europe throughout this period. And today, we're a focused, resilient and indeed future-orientated utility with a clear strategy, a sharpened portfolio and a very strong financial foundation. And looking at the current situation and the developments in the Middle East do give us reason for concern. And first of all, I would like to express my deepest sympathy for those civilians affected by this conflict and their consequences. And of course, the surge in gas prices may remind some of the 2022 energy crisis in the wake of Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. And at that time, Uniper was very heavily exposed to the extreme gas market volatility. But today, the situation for Uniper is fundamentally different. We now operate from a much more favorable position and Unipa currently has no direct restrictions on LNG procurement and has no deliveries from the region and Unipa's earnings outlook and financial obligations show that we have a significantly reduced risk in our gas business and at present our earnings performance and projections remain stable underpinned by the effectiveness of our de-risking and hedging policies. Let me now Turn to personnel changes. As you know, just two weeks ago, we announced that our Chief Commercial Officer, Carsten Poppinger, left Uniper at the end of February. And on behalf of the management team, I'd like to thank Carsten for his strong contribution in repositioning Uniper as a successful trading house following the stabilisation by the German government. He materially improved the risk profile of our power and gas portfolio and indeed laid the foundations for a long-term gas sourcing and sales strategy. and further strengthened our trading and commercial activities. And we wish him well for the future. Now let me start with a look at our key highlights of the past financial year. For the financial year 2025, we fully met our expectations. Our business model is more resilient and our risk management is sharper and more focused. The credit rating agencies S&P and Scope reaffirmed their stable outlook and upgraded Uniper's standalone credit profile, a clear recognition of our strengths and fundamentals and our prudent financial steering. Additionally, we're approaching the finish line to fulfil the obligations stemming from the EU stabilisation package. And among the last major assets on the disposal list, the GONU gas-fired power plant in Hungary, as well as the Datel 4 coal-fired plant and the district heating business in Germany, were sold during the 2025 financial year. And this brings me to our business achievements and the progress that now enables our strategic next steps. With a view to Uniper's future, we made it our priority last year to push ahead with our growth projects. And in 2025, we executed consistently against our strategic priorities. So, we've been preparing to successfully participate in Germany's upcoming 12 gigawatt Kaffwerksplattegi auctions. We've advanced low-carbon power projects across Europe, including a CCS-enabled major gas-fired power plant in the UK at Coniskey in North Wales. And we've also focused on executing our growth projects. The revitalization of the 160-megawatt pump storage plant at Hatburg is on schedule and within budget. And execution has begun on 600 megawatts of PV and onshore wind projects in Germany, the UK, and Poland. And the 30 megawatt hydrogen project Bad Laustadt is set to reach COD in 2026. And finally, we set a fresh strategy to rebuild our gas midstream business by realigning gas procurement and sales portfolio with long-term diversified LNG and gas supply agreement. We've also realigned responsibilities within the management board to strengthen our leadership framework and position the organization for the forthcoming next stage of our transformation. And our future vision is well defined. At the same time, we're aligning our corporate functions with market developments to ensure that Uniper remains strong and competitive going forward. And by streamlining our headquarter functions and optimizing our staffing and requirements, we've embarked upon several individual measures to improve our cost base significantly by 2027. And this brings us to the financial figures for the 2025 financial year on slide four. In the 2025 financial year, we reached a solid result fully in line with the given outlook for 2025. The group-suggested EBITDA ended up exactly in the middle of the range given a year ago. And group-adjusted net income was even at the top end of the outlook range supported by a very good financial result. And Christian will share more financial details in a minute. Our financial position remains remarkably strong. Unipol fulfilled all of its payment obligations with a cash-out of around €2.6 billion in March 2025 to the Federal Republic of Germany. Nevertheless, we ended 2025 with a very strong economic net cash position of €2.8 billion. And a major step forward is the resumption of dividend payments. With the recent amendment to the Energy Security Act, Uniper is now legally allowed to pay dividends to our shareholders again. And after all our restructuring work in response to the gas prices, all our work to de-risk the company, and with a strong financial base now in place, we can pay a dividend again. And the Executive Board and Supervisory Board will propose a dividend payment of €72 per share to the 2026 Annual General Meeting. And this is further evidence of our ongoing economic recovery and demonstrates that we are very well prepared for any future reprivatization initiatives. Turning now to our CAPEX plan on slide five. 2026 and early 2027 are intended to be the period in which a significant portion of our 5 billion euros growth and transformation pipeline moves from preparation to firm investment decisions. And in the last half-yearly report of 2025, we further specified our plans. Around half of the budget is to be allocated to large flex power plant projects by 2030. Here, we see important political progress which underpins our confidence to deliver against our commitments, whilst details of the regulatory conditions which influence timing and competition are yet to be defined. The rest will go predominantly into clean power plant projects in the field of renewable energies and hydrogen. And around €1 billion of total budget has been taken to financial investment decision and is already in execution mode. The bias in concrete implementation is currently clearly towards green generation. And by the turn of year 2026-27, We're optimistic to have taken decisive steps forward in Uniper's transformation by deciding on a number of large power plant projects to strengthen Uniper's position as one of the major Northwest European players for dispatchable power generation. In Germany, we're prepared to enter the first round of auctions, probably in late summer 26, with our well-developed projects at the Staudinger and Scholden sites. Both brownfield sites, located near Frankfurt and in the Ruhr area, are ideally positioned with their existing infrastructure connections to gas networks and close to the planned German hydrogen core network, as well as to the high-voltage electricity hubs. In the UK, as part of the decarbonisation of energy production, the government is promoting flagship projects using CCS technology to bring the existing large-scale domestic storage volume beneath the seabed into commercial use. Our goal is to prepare a new gas-fired power plant with CCS capability at our current Connors Quay location for investment readiness within the next 12 months. And this project is an important building block in ensuring long-duration flexibility in a decarbonising power system and demonstrates our commitment to contributing to security of supply whilst lowering emissions. And 2026 will be the year in which Uniper will include further renewable energy projects currently in implementation in its balance sheet for the first time By the end of 2026, we anticipate that approximately 150 megawatts of our projects will be commenced. We also want to increase the value of our existing power generation portfolio by extending the terms of our operating licenses. Additional investments in our UK gas-powered power plant fleet and the conversion of our fossil fuel assets to sustainable bioenergy in Sweden are high on the priority list too. And all of these projects demonstrate our commitment to ensuring security of supply whilst reducing emissions from our power plant fleet. And as I shared earlier, we're gradually broadening and reinforcing our gas and LNG sourcing and indeed sales channels. And overall, it's our strategy to allocate a greater proportion of our investments to quasi-regulated assets which offer steadier earnings. We thereby enhance the quality and predictability of our cash flow and underline our strategy towards a more resilient and lower risk earnings profile for the years ahead. And this brings me to our key priorities for the 2026 financial year in a nutshell. First, we focus on project delivery whilst maintaining strict financial discipline, focusing on stable finances, disciplined asset management and capital allocation. And our strategy prioritizes supporting the reprivatization of Uniper and investing in transformation and growth initiatives. Operational excellence with respect to the large power plant projects will, of course, be key. And in light of the new challenges, particularly the implementation of AI in more efficient work processes, we will train our employees and embed them in leaner decision-making processes so that we as a company can better advance our transition agenda. And with that, I hand over to Christian who will now share details of the 2025 financial results and conclude with the outlook for this year. Christian.

speaker
Christian Barr
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Thank you, Mike, and very welcome to all of you joining us today. I'm pleased to present the financial results 2025 in more detail for the very first time. Let me start with the headline figures on slide eight. As Mike already highlighted, we delivered a solid group adjusted EBITDA of around 1.1 billion euros and a group adjusted net income of 544 million euros. Those figures are fully in line with our guided financial range. After an unusually negative first quarter with gas midstream margin burdened by past optimization activities in the gas portfolio, and withdrawals of high-priced inventory gas, performance rebounded decisively. The second quarter results already brought us firmly back into positive territory. Looking ahead, we anticipate a return to a more typical seasonal earnings pattern. As expected, headline results sit below last year's exceptional levels. This primarily reflects the burned gas midstream business and the absence of the power-hatching tailwinds that had supported our Generation Earth earnings in the previous years. The latter was also driven by portfolio adjustments following asset disposals required under our EU state aid obligations, decommissioning of plants, and outages. As we navigate the way forward, top priority is to safeguard Unipass financial stability despite disposals of assets due to EU obligations and a continuing challenging market environment. I will come back to the 2025 earnings drivers shortly. Let me turn to a particularly positive milestone on slide 9, the resumption of Unipass dividends. subject to the agm approval would be a crucial step back towards capital market readiness under the 2022 stabilizations framework with the federal republic of germany distributions were suspended that restriction has been lifted in two steps first in december 23 We restored our on-balance sheet ability to distribute and accumulate profit through a share capital reduction with the allocation of the reduction amount to the capital reserve. And second, with the December 2025 amendment of the German Energy Security Act, so-called ENSIC, we now have a legally unencumbered pathway to resume dividends subject to usual legal requirement. As Mike mentioned already, we will propose an initial dividend of 300 million euros to the annual general meeting taking place in May. This is a powerful confirmation of Unipass financial robustness and a catalyst for restoring capital market credibility. Our distribution policy is under development. Yet a compelling dividend will play an instrumental role in further enhancing Unifor's capital market attractiveness. Let me remind you, however, that the decision on reprivatization, both path and timing, rests with the German federal government. Let me now turn to a broader strategic message on slide 10. unipa has undergone material de-risking operationally and financially 2025 marks the year in which we have reset unipa's foundation we have fully managed the volatility from the gas crisis and the frenzy market conditions carried out most of the eu remedy package and removed all legacy exposures as a result We now operate on a normalized and robust earnings baseline. And from here, our trajectory is forward-looking and growth-oriented. To give you a few significant examples from our past risk reduction agenda. Operationally, we delivered risk compression through a refined gas strategy with a deal-by-deal risk approach. a concrete plan to a streamlined business including a leaner cost base and reinforced cyber resilience. Regulatory risk has been materially reduced with stabilization measures nearly fully executed including the payment towards the Federal Republic of Germany done in March 2025. We have a clear commitment to improve our earnings profile and shift investments towards quasi-regulated and recurring earning streams in line with our strategy. Also, we have strengthened our credit and liquidity profile and our balance sheet recovery has been exceptional. With a material net cash position and with a crisis firmly behind us, we were able to terminate the KFW facilities ahead of time and have sufficient liquidity secured. We also have all necessary, all the necessary tools to return to the debt markets when required and reestablish a standard corporate funding structure supported by our existing debt issuance program and green bond framework.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

This is what we mean when we say we have done our homework.

speaker
Christian Barr
Chief Financial Officer

Coming to the reconciliation of group-adjusted EBITDA from full year 2024 to full year 2025. Most underlying drivers were well-flagged in previous calls and aligned with the guidance we reiterate throughout the year. Starting with greener commodities, coming from an elevated level, the segment saw a sizable decline in adjusted EVDA, finishing the year at 16 million euros. Key influence on earnings include challenges resulting from past portfolio optimization measures and the lapse of the curtailment gains associated with alternative Russian gas supply sourcing. However, a clear bright spot came from our US LNG business, which delivered a significant uplift driven by favorable forward sales, which is not expected to repeat going forward. It's also worth noting that last year's results were boosted by a substantial provision release linked to the resolution of legacy legal disputes in Q4 2024, a benefit that did not recur in 2025. Moving to flexible generation. Earnings declined by around 40% to 596 million euros, consistent with the normalization of margins following the end of elevated clean dark and clean spark spreads observed until end 2024 and the reduction of our fossil fuel portfolio. Some of this compression was mitigated by one-off effects from contractual dispute settlements. Overall, flexible generation is delivering solid earnings contributions despite the reduced portfolio resulting from a better realized clean spark spread of fed by lower ancillary services income. Last but not least, to green generation. The segment delivered 626 million euros of adjusted EBITDA. representing more than 25% increase year on year. Earnings contribution from Nordics nuclear and hydro business as well as from German hydro was up while ramp up costs for renewables were on the rise. A major positive effect stems from the lapse of high provisions recognized in Q4 of our prior year for nuclear decommissioning in Sweden and dam-related obligations in German hydropower. Operationally, we extended outage, we extended outage of the Oskarsham 3 nuclear power plant of nearly seven months weight on performance. The plant came back online on 2nd of November 2025. Over most of the year, the Nordic power market remained well supplied, supported by high precipitation and the above average hydro reserve levels. This market environment contributed to a lower average chief prices, which was down up to five euros per megawatt hour year on year. While lower realized prices and reduced nuclear output weight rated on the earnings, these were partly offset by stronger Swedish hydro volume. Despite the decline in German hydro output, German hydro power saw higher earnings. This was mainly boosted by strong forward sales in the run of river assets with price more than doubling, while pumped storage contributed less with declining volumes. Looking ahead on our hedge figures, which are included in the appendix, Hatch prices for our Nordic and German fleet in 2026 and 2027 remained stable compared to the previous quarter with Germany holding steady in the high 80s euros per megawatt hour and the Nordics around 38 euros per megawatt hour. Meanwhile, hatch ratios have increased. For 2028, the year which is included for the first time, we are 20% hatched at a price of 37 euros per megawatt hour in Sweden. and 50% hedged at the price of 78 euros per megawatt hour in Germany. The next slide shows adjusted EBITDA reconciled to adjusted net income. Group adjusted net income of 544 million euros for 2025 benefited strongly from two factors, lower depreciation and amortization and a continued robust economic interest result. Depreciation and amortization declined by more than 10%, reflecting the combined effects of asset disposals, plant shutdowns, and prior year impairments. In addition, our economic interest results remain firmly positive, underpinned by Unipor's very strong net cash position of 2.8 billion euros, and year-end 2025, at year end 2025 and lower interest expenses among others due to the reduction and ultimately termination of the 5 billion Euro KfW credit facility. On the tax side, the operating tax rate came in at 26.3%. Overall, these financial effects jointly contributed to an adjusted net income at the upper end of the outlook range for the 2025 financial years. Turning to slide 13, the focus is on operating cash flow. For the full year 2025, Unipa recorded a negative operating cash flow of 814 billion euros a figure influenced by the settlement of the payment obligation to the Federal Republic of Germany in March 2025. Excluding this one-off effect, operating cash flow would have been very strong at about 1.7 billion euros. A stronger working capital position also contributed to the high underlying operating cash flows reflecting reduced gas inventory levels. At year end, gas storage levels stood at 63% down from 85% the year before. Now over to slide 14 and Unipass financial position. At year end 2025, economic net cash stood at very strong 2.8 billion euros, underscoring the group's restored balance sheet resilience and will be invested in the execution of our strategy. This position was achieved despite the full settlement of our payment obligation to the German government in March 2025 and a meaningful step up in capital expenditures. Cash investments amounted to 932 million euros, up 30% year-on-year, driven by progress in our renewables project, and by increased maintenance spendings, particularly with flexible generation in the UK and Germany. We also recorded over 500 million euros in divestment proceeds, mainly from the sale of the Hungarian power plant Göngyi, the sale of the German district heating business and power plant Gateln IV, while other effects reflected movement in pension and asset retirement obligations and deconciliation items. On the financial side, we extended the 3 billion euros revolving credit facilities to 2028, and we are in the process of extending it to 2029, securing short-term liquidity. We also terminated the undrawn KFW facility early and renewed our 2 billion Euro debt issuance program for another year. In addition, UNIPA published its first green finance framework, validated by Standard & Poor's Global, enabling the issuance of green bonds backed by EU taxonomy-aligned projects going forward. And this brings me to the final slide with Unipass outlook for the full year, 2026. 2025, just to remind you, marks the year our balance sheet has finally absorbed all impacts from the crisis. The financial year 2026 will serve as a new baseline reflecting a reduced portfolio following the completion of the executed We have set the 2026 outlook at an adjusted EBITDA in the range of 1 billion to 1.3 billion euros. The projected adjusted net income is between 350 million and 600 million euros. Looking at the main segmental earning drivers, we expect a significantly improved earnings contribution from our green generation segment after the unplanned long outage of our nuclear asset, OSGAS HAM 3 in 2025. Additionally, our green commodity segment is projected to achieve substantially improved earnings at the negative impact from previous gas portfolio optimization activities that affected 2025 will no longer apply. And for flexible generation, we anticipate earnings in line with 2025, even with a reduced portfolio largely due to stronger UK capacity mechanism contributions and absence of one-off effects which supported results in 2025. The 2026 financial year has begun strongly. We anticipate that the first quarter of the 2026 financial year will deliver around 40% of the financial year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook. In summary, we are confident in delivering on our 2026 outlook, which reflects the current market environment. And as highlighted by Mike, Uniper remains on a solid footing. Unlike during the former gas crisis, high market prices no longer pose comparable risks. The impact on our business is expected to be limited as of today. At present, we do not identify any significant risk that could negatively impact us. Going further into 2026, we remain committed to execute our strategy and put our capex plan into action while delivering our financial plan. We are committed to enhancing our business profile, which will help boost our credit rating and assist the German government with Unipos reprivatization. This concludes our presentation for today, and I'm looking forward to our next touch points on the result for the first quarter of 2026 financial year on May 12th. So having said that, Sebastian, back to you to kick off the Q&A session.

speaker
Sebastian Feig
Executive Vice President, Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, Mike and Christian. We can start the Q&A session now. Operator, I'm handing it over to you, please.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you do wish to ask an audio question, please press the star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing star 2 to cancel. Once again, please press the star 1 to register for a question. There will be a brief pause while questions are being registered.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And your first question comes from the line of Anna Webb with UBS.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Anna Webb
Analyst, UBS

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two from me. The first one on the CCS gas-fired power plant in the UK. Can you give any kind of indication around the cost of that project? And I imagine it's relatively high, but it would be good to hear how that kind of compares to the other technologies the UK is kind of supporting. And also what the support is for that project, because I know you're in the, I think you're involved in the government process there. And then the second question on the reprivatization, I mean, I know it's difficult for you to comment, given it's kind of in the German government's hands, but the deadline for the German government reducing their stake is now just two and a half years away. And I just wondered if you had any indication of timelines in which they were going to make a decision or if there was a deadline by which they have to have decided what the route is at least to reprivatize and what the latest you're hearing there, anything you can share. I know it's tricky, but anything you can share is really helpful. Thank you.

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Anna. Thanks for the questions. Let me come to the second question first on the reprivatization. As we've reiterated a number of times, this is a decision for the federal government, and they will decide on the timeline and on the mode of reprivatization. I can only reiterate that the deadline is that they have to sell down to 25% plus one share by the end of 2028, and therefore we stand ready to support the government in whichever decision they make. I can only reiterate what Christian has said as well. We are on a very solid financial position. We are paying a dividend again, so we have done our homework and we are ready, and now it's a decision for the government. Coming to your first question on Connor's Key, at the moment, we have not disclosed any details on the project. We are still in discussions with the UK government, so I can't disclose either information about the cost of the project or exactly where we stand in those discussions. What I can say is that as soon as we do have further information, as soon as we have concluded discussions with the UK government, we will naturally share all the information required for you to understand exactly how that project looks and how the returns on that project looks. And we do expect an investment decision within the next 12 months, but of course we will communicate as soon as we have further information to say. But sorry, I can't reveal any more at this stage. Thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Ingo Becker with Kepler. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ingo Becker
Analyst, Kepler

Yes, thank you. Good morning. Kristin, you said that the guidance for this year has been done in light of the current market environment. which obviously is changing by the hour. Could you help us understand what your positioning is or your risks and potential opportunities in the current situation, both in the FlexGen and the green air commodity segment, perhaps also in light of the hedges that you do have in place or not? Thank you very much.

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Ingo. I'll pick up firstly on this and then hand over to Christian. Of course, the market is changing, and what we've seen so far is a significant increase in the front-end gas curve, less movement or no movement in the back-end. So that's the overall position, and I'm not going to speculate on how that might or might not develop. But what I would say is our – forecast is basically taking into account those developments because we have a well-balanced, well-hedged position for 2026, as Christian said. And that's why, based on the current movements we see, we don't expect any significant effects. But maybe, Christian, you could give a bit more detail on that.

speaker
Christian Barr
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thanks, Mike. And thanks, Ingo, for this question. Of course, a quite relevant question, which also We were thinking about why we pull together this forecast. You're right, the prices are quite volatile at the moment, but the power side is very well hatched, as I said. And to give you a little bit of flavor regarding our assumption, we do not assume a long-lasting conflict, first point. And we do assume that we might and will not see spiking prices as we have seen back in 2022. If the price levels, so if the crisis does not last too long and remains, the prices remain on the level at which we see at the moment, the impact on our financials, as I said, will be quite limited. Of course, if market environment changes, and of course, it's, not completely predictable, as you know, we have to rework on this. But again, key messages, we are by far more resilient than a couple of years ago, which is very helpful in the situation in which we are.

speaker
Ingo Becker
Analyst, Kepler

Thanks very much. Can I just inquire, if we assume this crisis lasts longer and market reactions become a bit more pronounced, given that you've you have no exposure to the region directly, which takes out one of the big problems you had a few years ago. Is that more of a chance or is it more of a risk if we would see a longer or more pronounced crisis reaction in the market?

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Ingo. I think it's important to reiterate that point that we don't have any specific exposure as we did in the last crisis. And Again, I don't want to speculate about where prices might go. I will only reiterate we have a balanced portfolio. We are well hedged in the front end of the curve. And, yes, of course, if prices are higher than they were before, then that is more of a chance than a risk.

speaker
Christian Barr
Chief Financial Officer

Christian? Just to add something which we – have to bear in mind and which really concerns me, Ingo. If we see and if we saw a longer lasting crisis with higher price impact at the end, this will hit the German and the European economy. And as you know, we are on a very, very fragile path of the German economy and a very fragile path, which means they cannot easily absorb higher energy prices. And we will see impacts onto our customers, and this is something which also cannot make us happy. So, therefore, we hope the crisis does not last too long.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Right. Thank you very much. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Louis Bouchard with OdoBHR. Please go ahead.

speaker
Louis Bouchard
Analyst, ODO BHF

Yes. Hi. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. Maybe two on my side. The first one would be to come back on the guidance 2026 and work a little bit on the bridge. I think that you finished 25 at 1.1 billion EBITDA. Your indication per division is a growing contribution from green generation and also for greener commodity, which makes sense in the current environment. And still your range is only 1 to 1.3 billion EBITDA for the year end 2026, which looks pretty conservative. I was wondering, shall we consider eventually higher administrative costs that has worked pretty hard in 2025? Or are you really conservative in your guidance for 2026 at this point in time? Or did we miss something? Maybe I don't know the hedging price, which is lower in game generation, and that has a material impact and offset the Oscar-SHAM higher volumes contribution. So could you please give us a little bit of light on this topic? And maybe the second question would be regarding the CAPEX envelope plan and notably in Germany. If you could provide a bit more details regarding the timing that we should expect from the framework to be put in place and for the auction to take place as well. You seem really confident that it's going to be a green light and that you will be able to invest into the flexible generation in Germany, which we all hope. Could you just give us a bit more indication on your discussion and on what you see at the moment for the framework, the timing? Thank you very much.

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Olivier. I pick up the second question first on the CapEx. You're absolutely right. We do expect the first auctions from the so-called German CapEx this year. This has been in gestation for a long period, as you know, under the previous government and now in this government where we have got to a position where it's been approved by the EU and by the German parliament or going through the German parliament. And therefore, we expect the first auctions to take place later this year, probably after the summer. And we are very well positioned. We have two projects, Scholden and Staudinger. and both of those are on existing brownfield sites, both of them with existing grid connections and both of them on the gas network. So we are confident that they are some of the best sites in Germany for new power plants. So our expectation is we will bid in in late summer and then we will see how that develops. We're very confident this will happen because it's critical for German energy security. As you know, we phased out nuclear. We're now phasing out coal. We need flexible generation to support the energy transition and that's why these plants are necessary and that's why the previous government and this government has been pushing forward with this strategy.

speaker
Christian Barr
Chief Financial Officer

Christian. Yes, and I'm happy to take the first question and I think the key question is um you have the impression that this forecast for 2026 might be somehow conservative i would like to remind us all that regarding 2025 we exactly landed in the in the middle of the previously given range so a year ago and this was also not conservative because yeah and that is correct of course our business does risk and also opportunities, which is quite normal, and we are in a very, very early stage this year. Last year, we had the outage of the nuclear plant in Oskarshamn. We had relatively low water levels, especially also in Germany. We do not know if this comes back or not, and we have the uncertainties around the current geopolitical situation. which might go into the first or into the other direction. So from that point of view, I would call it, it's a fair view, which we share with you today, which of course does embed some risk and opportunities.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And Louis, do you have a follow-up?

speaker
Louis Bouchard
Analyst, ODO BHF

No, not necessarily on the guidelines, but maybe just one quick one, if it's okay for you then, since you asked. Regarding the Oscar Shams situation, if you could just confirm that the difficult aspect and technical aspect of the plant is definitely behind us, and if now we have a relatively clear framework for the output of this plant, not only in 26, but maybe also a little bit beyond as soon as what you can see from now, of course. Thank you very much.

speaker
Michael Lewis
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks for the follow-up. As Christian said, we did have a challenge in 2025 with a complex technical repair. That was a one-off. We don't expect that to recur, and we did execute a full and comprehensive repair of the plant. So, our expectation is that going forward, we will not see a repeat of any technical issues like that, and we expect the output to be consistent with our guidance.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star 1 on your telephone keypad. And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to hand it back to Sebastian Feig for closing remarks.

speaker
Sebastian Feig
Executive Vice President, Group Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. This concludes our call for today. Thanks again, the analysts and investors for dialing in. We will see each other back in May for Q1 results. Until then, I wish you a very good remainder of the week and stay safe, everyone. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, presenters and ladies and gentlemen. This now concludes our presentation.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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