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Var Energi Asa U/Adr
2/11/2025
Good afternoon, everyone. It is a pleasure to welcome you all to the presentation of VAR Energy's fourth quarter 2024 and capital markets update. It's great to see so many people here in the room in Oslo and joining us also on the webcast. 2025 will be a transformational year for our energy, and today we will demonstrate how we will deliver growth, resilience, and value creation towards 2030 through sustained high production, strong cash regeneration, and increased dividends. Our CEO, Nick Walker, will lead the way, followed by presentations by several members of our leadership team. And with that, I'd like to invite Nick to the stage. The floor is yours.
Well, thank you, Ida, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Vore Energy's 2025 Capital Markets Update, together, of course, with a review of our full-year 2024 results. It's really great to see so many friendly faces here in Oslo in such a beautiful day, and also to welcome all of you who are joining us online. I'm pleased to report that we delivered strong results in 2024, in line with guidance. And as one of the fastest growing EMPs globally, we're set for transformative growth in 2025. I'm really excited for the outlook of Vore Energy. We have amazing assets. We have a tremendous team and we'll show today we're delivering on our strategy for growth and value creation. And I think there are five key drivers for this success. Firstly, it's our high quality portfolio that can organically sustain or grow production. Secondly, I believe that we can incrementally improve the outlook, making it better and better over time. And thirdly, we're stepping up the pace. The mantra is more faster, and you're going to hear a lot about that from Torge. And fourth, we have significant flexibility in our capital program, combining to make the company resilient, which is important in an uncertain world. And lastly, perhaps more importantly, we have an amazing team with an entrepreneurial focus and the capability to deliver on our strategy. And I think these are the foundations for significant value creation and are a thread through everything that we will talk about today. I think the film at the start was a really great introduction to my first few slides, and I want to provide some context to the business environment, as I think it informs how we see our strategy. The energy transition is happening, but I'm increasingly of the view that it will take longer than expected. The world needs access to reliable and decarbonized affordable energy. And the recent years have demonstrated the need for the latter, as affordable energy is vital for economic growth and prosperity. And we're seeing the tensions in the world are balancing these objectives. And the charts here show the latest IEA oil and gas forecasts, and that you can see that the demand for oil remains strong under any scenario. But to meet this demand, the world needs significant new investment in oil developments. And gas is an important transition fuel, which has done more so far to decarbonize energy systems than anything else. And this together, increasing global electricity consumption, is driving growing world demand for gas. So in any scenario, oil and gas will be essential for world energy supply for decades. But it's also important that we decarbonize the supply. And so we believe that those who can produce hydrocarbons with the little emissions and low cost as possible will have competitive advantage. And we also believe that the Norwegian content shelf is one of the best places in the world to invest in oil and gas. And the reasons for this are really very clear. It's low cost, it's low emissions. In fact, it's world leading on this. There's large remaining resources and there's access to acreage and reliable framework conditions and a supportive fiscal regime. The NCS is a key supplier of energy to Europe. And as you can see, representing around 30% of supply. And oil and gas is also key to Norway, representing almost a quarter of GDP and is a major source of industrial activity and employment across the country. And so there's strong public support for the industry. And this is why we're a pure play NCS E&P company and we'll continue to stay so. So in summary, oil and gas has a long future. The winners will be those who produce with low cost and low carbon emissions, and Norway is one of the best places in the world to invest in oil and gas. So in this context, our strategy is really very simple. It is also consistent, and you'll see that this slide is the same as we used last year. Our strategy is to ensure growth and value creation for all our stakeholders over time. It's to be a pure-play Norwegian oil and gas company for the reasons that I've set out. It's to be a reliable and secure supplier of affordable energy to Europe. And importantly, it's to be safe and responsible about how we conduct our business. And we're delivering on our targets and strategy, as we'll demonstrate today. Anvor Energy is built on a strong heritage of putting four companies together. Since the company's inception six years ago, it has a strong track record of value creation, as you can see. Building the third largest producer on the NCS with significant production and reserves growth, whilst delivering strong financials and returns, and achieving a total shareholder return since the IPO three years ago of over 80%. all at the same time as positioning the company for material further growth and value creation. And I really believe the best is yet to come. And I firmly believe that creating value is driven by people working as a team with a consistent and clear strategy. It's about creating one team and fostering the entrepreneurial energy in the company where everyone can make a difference and contribute to value creation. and we're stepping up the pace, doing more faster. Our heritage means we have deep and unique NCS expertise, and we're leveraging this. As we'll discuss in a moment, we have a leading exploration track record. In fact, we're recognized as most successful explorer on the NCS last year. And this is driven by a highly experienced team, but we're also leveraging the expertise of E&I, our major shareholder, who are probably the most successful explorer amongst the majors. And our focus in everything we do is about value creation, and that's how we see technology implementation. It's about implementing technology to create value. And partnerships are also key to our success. We draw on the capabilities and expertise of our major shareholder, E&I. We have strong relationships with our licensed partners, in particular Equinor. And we rely strongly on key relationships with our suppliers amongst the best in their fields to help us deliver success. So this is how we will create value, and you'll see many examples of this from my colleagues through today. So now looking at the business. Vore Energy is one of the fastest growing EMP companies in the world, and we've built a high quality diversified asset base in all areas of the NCS, with interest in around 50% of producing fields and the associated infrastructure, and also a large exploration footprint. Only Equinor has a bigger and more diverse position than we do. And so, Vore Energy has an amazing portfolio, which is driving our growth and sustained production. And Norway is a key provider of gas to Europe, as we all know, and Vore Energy plays a significant role in this as the second largest exporter of gas from Norway. And with our production mix of 35% gas, this provides natural hedge to our financial outlook. And from our main producing assets, we deliver gas into all the key markets in Europe. We've deployed a flexible gas sales strategy to capture the upsides. Long-term off-take contracts cover around 70% of our volumes, and these offer different pricing mechanisms which we utilize. We can also arbitrage pricing between the key markets. And this gas sales strategy has achieved additional revenues of around $1.3 billion above spot prices over the last two years. So Vor Energy is a significant and predictable supplier of gas to Europe, and millions of people and many businesses rely on us to deliver every day. And so gas is a key element of our value creation. So now let us look at the highlights for 2024. I'm pleased to report strong operational performance in line with expectations. We delivered full year production of 280,000 barrels a day within guidance. This is significantly increased from the year before. This is supported by three new project startups in the year and inclusion of the Neptune assets and also strong production efficiency across our operated assets. We're also making good progress delivering on our growth plans and unlocking the potential of our portfolio. Our major projects, Johan Casberg and Boulder X, are nearing completion. We increased reserves with a reserve replacement ratio of 300% last year. And we continued our leading exploration track record with approximately 50% success rate for the year, and we're already turning this into value. And we're continuing to deliver efficiencies in our business. Production costs for the year were 12.8 US dollars per barrel, significantly better than the original guidance. And we see higher synergies from the NetTune transaction of around $600 million post-tax over time, double what we guided when the transaction was announced. And on the back of this strong operational performance, we continue to deliver good financial results. with cash flow from operations post-tax of $3.4 billion for the full year, and we maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet. And lastly, we continue to provide attractive and predictable shareholder distributions. We confirm a dividend of 11 US cents per share in line with guidance for the fourth quarter to be distributed in February. And this means that the total 2024 dividend payout is approximately $1.1 billion, or around 30% of CFFO after tax. So in summary, we've delivered strong results in 2024 in line with expectations. So now looking forward to 2025, we're set for transformative production growth with Q4 2025 production guidance of over 400,000 barrels a day. This is driven by nine project startups adding around 180,000 barrels a day of new volumes at peak. And you'll see we're stepping up the pace of realizing the upside value from our high quality portfolio. with around eight project sanctions in the year targeting over 100 million barrels of net reserves. And we're increasing further the pace of exploration with around 20 wells in the year targeting approximately 125 million barrels of net risk resources. And we're continuing to drive efficiency, delivering incremental improvements, as I described earlier. In the fourth quarter 2025, production costs will be around $10 per barrel, down from $12.8 last year. And we aim to sustain it around $10 long term. And we're targeting to be carbon neutral in our operations by 2030. And on the back of our transformational production growth, we're raising dividends. We're providing Q1 2025 dividend guidance of $300 million, an increase from the $270 million per quarter that we paid out last year. And we're also raising the long-term dividend guidance to between 25% and 30% of cash flow from operations after tax from previously 20% to 30% of CFFO. So 2025 will be a transformational for energy. And Voo Energy has an amazing portfolio with lots of optionality and growth opportunities. And we're working at pace to create value from this. Our 2P reserves stand at 1.2 billion barrels. This is either in production or under development. And this underpins our growth to over 400,000 barrels a day in Q4 this year. And we can stay there a few years. And without investment, we'll then start to decline. But we are much more than that. We recently announced our 2C contingent resources are increased to around 900 million barrels, almost a 50% increase from the end of 2023. And we've defined over 25 early phase projects that are moving forward, counting for around 500 million barrels of this volume. This is a significant progression from what we presented a year ago. And during 2025, we're targeting sanction around eight of these projects, accounting for over 100 million barrels of net reserves. And on top of this, we also have an exciting exploration portfolio of over one billion barrels of net risk resources, where we expect to drill out about 50 percent of this over the next four years. And when you put this all together, you can see we have over three billion barrels of resource potential with 60 percent, 60 percent yet to be developed. That is how we will organically sustain production long term. And we're accelerating the pace of realizing this activity as you're here. And we're also set to deliver significant production growth in 2025. From 280,000 barrels a day in 2024, we'll grow to over 400,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter this year. This is double 2023 levels. This significant growth is driven by nine project startups that will happen during the year, adding around 180,000 barrels a day of new production at peak levels. And this will see around 85 new production wells coming on stream during the year, including infill wells. This is a huge number in an offshore context. And with the key projects being Johan Casberg, which will come online imminently, Holton East, which is on track for startup at Q1, end Q1 this year, and Boulder X, where the FPSO is now mechanically complete and will sail away from shore in March with expected startup at end Q2. And so we're guiding 2025 full-year production of between 330,000 and 360,000 barrels a day, with the range reflecting the uncertainty around the startup timing and ramp-up profile for the new projects. And you can see that we're also providing guidance for 2026 for the first time of around 400,000 barrels a day for the full year. This growth will now come very quickly, and we're confident that we're on track to deliver it. And with our high-quality portfolio with significant upside, when we reach 400,000 barrels a day in Q4 this year, we can sustain it organically at 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day towards 2030. And we're stepping up the pace of activity significantly to deliver on this. Firstly, by maximizing recovery from our producing assets, and these are the best barrels that you can develop. We'll drill around 130 infill wells over the next four years, adding net reserves of 160 million barrels and production of over 40,000 barrels a day. The economics are highly attractive with break-evens of around $30 per barrel. Secondly, we're progressing over 25 early phase projects, targeting net resources of over 500 million barrels. These are all tieback developments with short time to market. And the portfolio is high value with average break-evens of around $35 per barrel. And finally, we're increasing our pace of exploration. Last year, we drilled 13 wells, yielding six discoveries, with a number of these already in the development hopper. And this year, we're planning on 20 wells, with the program over the next four years targeting net risk prospective resources around 500 million barrels. And I think with around 70% of our future capital spent uncommitted, we have high flexibility to manage the business through the cycles, allowing us to slow down or speed up depending on the macro environment. And this put together is a big program of activity in an offshore context. And we have the people, equipment and contracts in place to deliver. I think additionally, we continue to take an opportunistic approach to further M&A. Where there's a strategic fit and we can create value, we have the track record and financial capacity to do more. But importantly, we don't need to do deals as we can sustain production organically long term. We just need to deliver what we have in our hands today. And how we do our business is just as important. So safe and responsible operations are key to our license to operate, and our ambition is to be the safest operator. And you can see that overall, we have a good safety and environmental trend, which is generally getting better. However, we recognize we're having to have too many low-level incidents, which is a strong focus within our organization. And we don't normally talk about this, but we're showing here our sick leave trend, which is going in the right direction. And it's significantly below the levels of our peers and the Norwegian industry average level of 7%. And the reason I put this in is I think it speaks to the strong positive culture in Vore Energy, which, amongst other things, drives safety performance. For the full year 2024, we had a good outturn with zero material safety or environmental incidents. And this takes hard work, a strong safety culture and focus every single day by the team. And I know they're committed to deliver this. And we continue to position the company to adapt to the energy transition, to ensure relevance and investability long term. We're top quartile in the world on emissions intensity. And our methane emissions are already near zero level. So we're already doing very well. But we want to go further. We're targeting becoming carbon neutral in our net equity operational missions by 2030. This will come from further investments in electrification of key assets, energy efficiency and portfolio optimisation, which will reduce emissions by more than 50% by 2030. And then we will invest directly in natural carbon capture projects to achieve carbon neutrality. And we have the contracts in place to achieve this, which comes at relatively low cost. Our Scope 2 emissions, which are purchased electricity, is already certified to come from renewable sources. And for our own use, Scope 3 emissions, this is the use of our product, we already provide high-quality offsets. And I'm pleased and very proud that we're getting recognition for our ESG leadership. Sustainalytics rank us as a top-rated company. This puts us in the top 10% of world oil and gas industry, and we're the only Norwegian energy company with this rating. And also, we're including the OBX ESG index as the only oil and gas company. This index includes the top 40 companies on the Oslo Exchange with the best ESG ratings. I think all of this is leveraging to how the company is viewed. And how do we create value? Vore Energy has a high-quality business, and this provides strong foundation to deliver sustained value to shareholders over time. as Outline will sustain production of 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day towards 2030. Our high-margin barrels mean that business is free cash flow neutral at around $40 per barrel, which means we generate strong free cash flow, as you can see in the range of $5 billion to $9 billion over the period 2025 to 2030, with an oil price range of $65 to $85 per barrel. And we have a strong investment-grade balance sheet with stable outlook. And with 70% of our capital spend uncommitted, we also have high flexibility to manage through the commodity price cycles. This combines to allow us to pay attractive and predictable dividends with a raised dividend guidance of 25% to 30% of cash flow from operations after tax in the long term. I think we have the flexibility to do it all, to provide attractive dividends, to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet, and fund our growth profile. And this is my final slide, and I want to summarize, leaving you with the following messages. Vore Energy is positioned to deliver significant growth, value, and strong shareholder returns. We're one of the fastest growing EMP companies globally. We're on track to produce over 400,000 barrels a day in Q4 this year. Our high quality portfolio will organically sustain production of 350 to 400,000 barrels a day towards 2030. and this is supported by high-value investments with break-evens of around $35 per barrel. We're stepping up the pace to deliver these, and we're doing more faster. And I believe that we will incrementally improve the outlook, increasing the resources and production, reducing costs and emissions, adding significant value for our shareholders. And we'll continue to reduce emissions, becoming carbon neutral by 2030, making us relevant and investable long-term. Putting this together, we have a resilient business with high capex flexibility, delivering strong free cash flow of $5 to $9 billion towards 2030. This supports attractive and predictable dividends with a raised payout guidance of the 25% to 30% of CFFO to tax. Our share price trend over the last year has been strong. But however, with us trading at a very attractive dividend yield of 14%, I still see further price upside. I think all of these are the reasons to be invested in Vore Energy. And with that, I'm now going to hand over to my colleagues who are going to provide further details on how we will deliver on all of this. And first up is going to be Torga after a short movie. So thank you very much.
The Balder X project is a new beginning in one of the most prolific areas on the Norwegian continental shelf. By extending the life of the very first discovery on the Norwegian continental shelf and where it all started in 1967, the foundation for new growth and value creation has been set. Through competence, new technology and hard work, the Balder field will live on well beyond 2045. With all drilling and subsea work finalized and the Jotunn FBSO mechanically complete at the yard, we are preparing for offshore installation during spring. As the Jotunn FBSO comes on stream in second quarter of 2025, adding 80,000 barrels of oil per day, a new era begins.
we see vast potential to sustain long-term production, with around 70 infill drilling opportunities at various stages of maturation in the area, some of which are already in the final stage where first oil reaches the market, adding substantial value, such as Walder Phase 5, a fast-track development expected to come on stream towards end of this year, adding over 30 million high-value barrels. And at Ring on the North, the recoverable volumes have doubled since the discovery early in 2024, A dedicated cross-functional team is working rapidly towards an investmentation in the coming year. With the infrastructure in place, time to market will be short and value will increase.
Working in parallel, several additional projects such as Balda phase 6 and new infill wells are being matured. In total, we are looking to move up to 100 million barrels of additional production through existing facilities, while we continue to explore for more. The Balda area has been our backyard for decades, and our knowledge of the area is extensive. As we widen our understanding, test new ideas, apply new technologies, new opportunities constantly evolve. The ideal place to be for a team with an entrepreneurial mindset.
Whoa. Good afternoon, all. It's good to be here. And I can assure you, Nick, I'm bringing my entrepreneurial energy with me here today. And it's good to be back. One year since last time feeling the CMU nerves. And I have got the pleasure to talk about more value faster today. And what I'm going to talk about today, you can split into three main areas. It's about delivering. It's about growing, and it's about sustaining. Because we are delivering our significant production to be above 400,000 barrels during Q4 this year. Further, we are growing our resource base, here represented by 600% measured in recovery reserves ratio. which really is giving us the basis to sustain our production to a high level of 350 to 400,000 barrels towards 2030. So today I'm going to show you that we are doing more faster and we are getting bigger and better going forward. But first, let's have a glance on our 2024 production. The full year of production ended on 280,000 barrels for 2024, within guidance. This represents a 30% production growth driven by the Neptune transaction and startup of the projects Smerberg North, Christian South, and Elfisk North. Also, we see a very impressive production efficiency of 93%. This is an increase from 90% achieved in 2023. So then, let's move on to 2025 and delivering growth. We are going to deliver a significant growth in 2024 to above 400,000 barrels in Q4, which represents a 50% increase from 2024. This above 400,000 barrels is really an increase from what we have previously announced of 400,000 barrels by year end 2025. This is building on four key building blocks, the Johan Casberg, the Halten East, and the Baldur X startups, as well as our infill. You will see on this slide that we still have a very good commodity mix. Today, we have about 36% gas, which will be, when these projects are starting up, around 30%. This is driven by the startup of the large oil producers, Johan Casberg and Ballarex. Now, in my next slides, I will walk you through the status of these three main projects, and then present you our production outlook for 2025. First, Johan Casberg. Johan Casberg, the man, do you know him? He was a politician which was very influential in the early 20th century. Now, Johan Casberg, the field, is going to be a significant energy provider from the Norwegian continental shelf for decades to come. We're here talking about 30 plus years. The only thing remaining now for Johan Casberg to start up is the final commissioning and start-up preparations. and we expect that this is only weeks away before we see the startup then there will be a ramp up period of two to three months before we see a production plateau of 220 000 barrels per day this is very competitive barrels with a low production cost Together with Equinor, we are working hard to extend the plateau to 2030 and beyond. And first up here is the Johan Casberg EOR, followed by cluster one. And as we speak, we are currently doing exploration to define up the cluster two. This is a very prosperous area. You see it on the recoverable reserves being in the range 450 to 600, but just as exciting is the big potential we see in the 250 to 500 million unrisked resources yet to be developed. So this means that we will see more value for longer from Johan Casberg. Then I'm moving southwards, coming to the Halton East, which is a subsidy tieback to Oscar. I like to call this a hidden gem, because this is a subsidy tieback that we haven't spoken that much about. And it's very close to start up. It's going to happen in Q1 this year. That means very shortly. And it brings up to 80,000 of peak production. This is, as many other subsidy tiebacks, a very cost-efficient development, and it brings low emission. We see here very attractive economics. A break-even well below 30 US dollar, with an internal rate of return above 50%. And the tieback time? about a year. Also here, we see a significant area potential. Among others, we see and plan to drill the Lacris Exploration Well operated by Vorenergi in 2026. In total, we are talking about 100 to 200 million potential barrels to be developed in the future. And then, This slide I really waited for, and I'm really looking forward to talk you through the Balder X and the close to completion. As you know, the only remaining piece on the Balder X is the Jotunn episode. And here, we are highly advanced when it comes to the commissioning, and we are planning for Sail Away during March. The first part of the sail away, we will be starting not too far away from the key side, outside Rosenberg, to do the inclination testing. Then we are moving inshore to Årmøyfjorden for sea trails, and then installing the top part of the anchors. Then from there, we go offshore. The first thing we will do is to install a mooring, and we will then connect the hotel. This will then start the offshore commissioning, and we are pulling in the risers to do the hookup. This means that we will have a start-up towards the end of June. Then, a ramp-up, three to four months, before we reach a plateau of 80,000 barrels. Also here, in this area, we see future and further value creation. The Balder Phase 5, we sanctioned that October 2024. And we are working to sanction the Balder Phase 6 within the summer of this year. And combined, these are bringing 45 to 50 million barrels to be tied into Jotun. I will talk more about these projects later in my presentation. This means that a new era is about to start in the Balder area. TOL-001 is extending its life from 1965 to 2045 and beyond. This is for generations, as Atle said. And I was thinking that, actually, it is for my dad's generation, it is for my generation, and it's going to be for my son's generation. And who knows what it brings further. So, taking you to the production outlook for 2025. With Johan Casberg, the Halten East, and the Balder X, starting up in Q1 and Q2 respectively, and six other projects coming on stream in 2025. Where is this taking us when it comes to the outlook? There is a certain set of ingredients. It's the ramp-up timing, it's the production efficiency, and it is the turnarounds. This year, we see a limited turnaround impact. And this gives us a guided range of 330 to 360,000 barrels per day. As you will see, we have a steep increase in production, and we will reach above 400,000 barrels during Q4 of this year. And then, as Nick said also, we are expecting around 400,000 barrels in 2026. So with this significant production growth, what about our unit OPEX cost? First, on the guidance, we see a full year guidance for 2025, or 11 to 12 US dollars per barrel. This is actually representing a 30% reduction from 2024, because we are bringing in new production and that we are continuing our improvements. Simply said, OPEX down and production efficiency up. So what about the future? Where are we heading? Our clear plan is to sustain on this level. That means that we're going to sustain on around $10 per barrel over time. And how are we going to do that? We're going to maintain high production. We are also going to, and we have, an OPEX-efficient early phase portfolio, our subsidy tiebacks. We're going to continue driving down costs. doing asset optimization to high-grade our portfolio, as well as continuing to deliver on our improvement initiatives. Then, like I've been doing on the production efficiency, what we are doing on the turnaround optimization, and also the way we are working, ensuring that we are working more efficient and with a higher productivity in all of our business. Then to the synergies and value creation of the Neptune acquisition. Some of us said when we announced the acquisition in June 2023, actually it was me, that that was a perfect fit. And we really mean that. And that same day we said that we see our value enhancement and synergies of around 300 million US dollar post-tax. Then last year, we took our... Those are guts, and we said that number is going to be 500 million US dollar. Today, we are concluding, and we're seeing that here we are able to realize synergies and additional value of 600 million US dollar. This is coming through exploration and product maturations, operational effects, and also financial synergies. Also here we see still, even though we are concluding, a further upside when it comes to continued exploration success and commercial realization of value. But I dare to state that yes, we were right. This deal were highly accretive and a perfect fit, making us bigger and better. This slide is important for us because what we do for living in our energy is oil and gas. And I dare to state that this is the most impressive slide in that regard. Because of our energy, Nick said it, we are about resources. Here you see that we have an increase from 1.6 billion barrels to 2.1 billion barrels of resources. This is a 30% growth in reserves and resources compared to end 2023. also represented with a 600% increase in resource replacement ratio, and giving us a 12 years reserve life. Simply said, if I want to explain the 2P and the 2C, simply said, the 2P is what's giving us the base production. To sustain, we need to focus on the 2C. This is really to take it from discovery to dollars more and faster. So, I'm going to spend the rest of my presentation to focus on the sustained production on a high level going forward. You have heard it already, we are transforming to sustained production. Some of you might think and say maybe also that sustaining is not sounding too exciting, but I can assure you that it really is. And we are really stepping up significantly our operated projects activities. These are subsidy tiebacks which are flexible in timing, flexible in capital allocation, and very cost efficient. And also, as production grows, we will do more infills which will deliver larger volume of efficient high value barrels towards 2030. So these are all solid efforts enabling us to sustain high-value production of 350,000 to 400,000 barrels towards 2030. And Nick talked about it, you know, incremental improvements, meaning, you know, the small things that adds up to something big and significant. And in War Energy, we say that status quo is not an option. So then you can see that we have enhanced our in-house capabilities. We have really... We really have a value-driven approach to technology adoption. I will come back to some examples. And also, we have optimized our delivery models to really ensure efficiency going forward, both within public development, well planning, and how we are operating our production. Also, as you see on the left side, in more energy, almost everything is exponential. See how we have been improving our production efficiency? targeting more than 95%. The drilling efficiency, more than 30%. And maybe even more important, how we have been able to extend the completion length. That means the meters in the reservoir in the barrel area. That is what brings the barrels together. to the rig or to the platform and to the market. Here we're talking about a 350% improvement. And this is already incorporated in the Baller Phase 5 project I just talked about sanctioned last fall. This combined is enabling us for bringing more value faster, sustaining high production. We are, as part of this, accelerating our subsidy developments. Here, the recipe is that we are partnering with the best, really through our strategic partnerships. This means that we are involving early, we are finding high-value, low-cost solutions, and we are gaining mutual predictability, which is key in the current supply chain. This also gives quality and faster developments. and it is ensuring us capacity. The one subsea early commitment program that we just announced is reducing the delivery time by up to 12 months, really building on simplified and standardized solution with the aim for us to really transform the subsea development by establishing a continuous factory of subsea deliverables. Also here, we have secured rigs and installation vessels. So that means we are good to go. So then, talking about more value faster. So really stepping up the pace. I would like to draw you to the attention to the green text here, CMU 2024. One year ago, we said that we had around 20 early phase projects and targeting 400 million barrels. Now, in the CMU 2020, we are really stepping up that number, more faster, with 25 projects targeting around 500 million barrels, with eight projects planned for sanction this year, bringing above 100 million barrels into development, which represents a 25% increase. Here, a good example is the one already mentioned, the Balder Phase 5, with up to 38 million barrels of recoverable reserves. And in addition to this, eight more sanctions are being banned, representing, as I said, around 100 million barrels. So... So our early phase project, what is the headline? It is flexible, it's resilient, and highly competitive. Here we have numerous projects bringing high value barrels to the market. This rather than the dependency of one or two real big ones. This represents less risk, shorter execution time, standardization, and also optimal facing. 70% of the CAPEX is uncommitted, really offering flexibility and adaptability. And also, I'm sure you know this, but this may be needless to say, but we are keeping our capital discipline as part of this. Because you see that through our highly competitive portfolio. Here we are talking about a portfolio internal rate of return above 25 with a break-even of 35 and a payback in the range of two years. Some of them with less than or around one year in payback. So in short, I call this a perfect portfolio to sustain production going forward. Also what you see on this chart is that our portfolio is well geographically diverse, with material volumes coming across all our strategic hubs. Also, you see that the production startup is well distributed, really underpinning our sustained production. And the subject type X is CapEx efficient, simplified concepts, and standard solution. Also here, we are utilizing the significant existing infrastructure that our energy have access to. So this means that the development scope constitute lower risk and short time to market. I really hope now that you're ready for a deep dive into this, and this is always difficult, but we all have some favorites, and here you see mine. So if you start then on the left side, this is the UA subsea projects. Here I talk about up to 110 million barrels recoverable reserves consisting of three discoveries being the ophelia the year north and the theresa this was part of the neptune acquisition and we jumped straight on this and for theresa we did a discovery in june of last year 2024 and it was immediately incorporated into the project here We are targeting a sanction before year-end, then I'm talking about this year, year-end 2025, with first oil late 27 or early 28. That means that from product initiation to sanction, less than 12 months. Here you can see that we are combining existing UR infrastructure with new infrastructure. Then to the right, the Balder Phase 5 and Balder Phase 6. These are, as I said, going to be tied back to Jotun and utilizing the Balder X infrastructure. Here we have really been building on all the competence and experiences and learnings we have gained through this mega project, particularly then related to the subsurface and drilling and well. Phase 5. was sanctioned less than one year from maturation. It brings back even of 30 and internal rate of return above 50. And how you might say, how? One, we are going to utilize existing infrastructure. Two, here I've been able to increase the number of meters in the reservoir from around 4,000 meters to more than 13,000 meters. That is significant. by doing the same but utilizing all our experience and our technology and learnings. This is then doubling the recovery reserves from around 17 million barrels to up to 38 million barrels. The startup, Q4 2025, again I have to remind myself that is this year, with a peak production of around 20,000 barrels coming in 2026. Then phase six, which is being worked and with a target of sanctioning before the summer. Here we see reserves of up to 16 million barrels, and we are going to utilize what we call multilateral technology. Here we're going to drill one well with several branches, up to three branches, which will then give us our vessel section of around, in total, 3,000 meters. with first oil early 27. So this you really see more value faster. Then we have to go from here. Almost said don't know, but we go to infill. And this is, I almost described it as a cherry on a cake. Again, we are applying the capability and subsurface, the capability from subsurface and drilling, also for the infill. developing 160 million barrels from now until 2030. And this is really the most cost-effective and profitable barrels we have. So we will participate each year in a large number, we are saying here 30 to 40 wells, which will bring between 40 to 50,000 barrels to the company per year. Needless to say, maybe, but to break even, fantastic, around 30 payback less than a year. So this is really a perfect match for us in raw energy. Great fields, getting bigger. This is good resource management and high value creation. So then... All good things have to come to an end. This is my final slide and my summary there. So really, to summarize all my excitement, I dare to state that our value proposition is very clear. More value delivered even faster. And we are confirming a sustained production in the range 350,000 to 400,000 barrels towards 2030. We have a significant resource-based growth of around 30%. large portfolio of subsidy tiebacks, which is flexible, robust, and resilient. And we are moving at pace. Eight policy sanctions planned for this year. And through our strategic partnerships, we have capacity and competence. So bottom line, last for me now, As a company, I dare to state that we have never been in a better shape. We have the resource base, the early phase portfolio, growth and capability to sustain high production long term. Really more faster, bigger, and better. So that's it for me and Rune. You have to take it from here.
Thank you, Torgar. Hi, everyone. My name is Rune Oldervold. I'm the SVP of production in Vorenergi. I will dive a little more into our key areas, the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea, and the Boulder area. And I will show you that our reserves, our resources, and our activities will enable us to sustain production in the long run. I'm sure you have picked it up already. We have a diverse portfolio. Our resources are distributed across the entire NCS, where we take part in around 200 licenses and 40 producing fields. We have divided our portfolio into hubs to maximize value by driving area developments in a holistic manner. And since last year, our resource base has grown organically in all four areas. And this growth is due to several exploration successes and technical revisions as the company is actively de-risking and progressing resources into new development projects. Our total resource base has now reached 2.1 billion barrels. And just to give you a flavor of what that means, 2.1 billion barrels is equivalent to producing 350 to 400,000 barrels for 14 to 16 years. That puts us in a good position to sustain production at the high level. On top of that, we have an exciting exploration portfolio carrying more than one billion barrels risked resources. So needless to say, I'm quite optimistic about the future in Vård Energi. In the Barents area, Barents Sea, we have a strong presence in all the producing assets and we are well positioned to further expand. Last year, we doubled our production from the area by adding snövid to our portfolio. And this year, we will expand further and triple the production as Johan Kostberg starts up. With reserves of 340 million barrels, we can maintain this high production through the decade, but we also have a growing contingent resource base now passing 300 million barrels. This growth comes from successful exploration and we keep on finding more oil in the Barrens. The recent Countach appraisal well confirmed and de-risked significant potential in the backyard of Goliath, where we are currently drilling additional exploration wells. And if you add half a billion barrels risked prospective resources on top of our resources, we carry more than one billion barrels in Aberrant's portfolio, most of it close to existing infrastructure. This has the potential to keep our assets full for a long, long time. Snøvitt and the Melkøya LNG facilities, they will remain on plateau into the 2040s. Johan Kostback is about to start up these days, and additional projects to maintain long-term production are already underway, with the IOR project that Torge mentioned, which will be sanctioned later this year, and the Cluster 1 and 2 developments progressing. Finally, we have our operated Goliath. It is fully electrified, it's built robust and has a significant remaining technical lifetime and available capacity, a perfect host for new volumes. And new volumes are coming. We will arrest the decline through infill drilling. We're actually starting to drill infill wells already this month on Goliath. Then we will drill about two wells per year going forward. And looking beyond, we aim for long-term production growth as we developed our recent nearby discovery, which Luca here will talk a little bit more about in a few minutes. So to recap the Barents area, we have a large resource base and we are tripling our production. We will sustain high long-term production through infield drilling and project developments. And on Goliath, we see potential for long-term growth following the successful exploration. Moving to the Norwegian Sea. The Norwegian Sea is our gas hub, securing reliable energy to Europe. 50% of our resources here are gas, and we expect a production growth in the next few years as new projects come online. Last year, we high-graded our portfolio here by selling some of our non-core assets. However, despite this, our total resource base has grown. Again, this is a result of successful exploration and technical revisions as we are progressing resources into new development projects. One of the most exciting discoveries on the NCS last year was Haydn. This opened up a new play with great potential, which we will further explore. And all in all, we are targeting to drill out 200 million barrels risk resources in the Norwegian Sea over the next four years. With the Oscar area and Ommelange, we maintain a strong gas position in the Norwegian Sea. And with four new projects starting up this year, we see growth in production over the next years. Beyond this, we are filling up with intensified drilling and additional early phase projects. And these projects are all close to existing infrastructure and are targeting more than 60 million barrels. About 50 new production wells are planned to start up in the next four-year period. This includes infill drilling, also in our operated fenia field. As I said, we also continue to explore. We explore for quick-to-market barrels, and we explore for game changers. And this year, we will drill an operated exploration well close to Fenja. And next year, another exciting operated exploration well close also to infrastructure. And of course, we will drill to unlock the potential of the Haydn discovery. So to conclude on the Norwegian Sea, we see production growth over the next years. We step up drilling activity to sustain high production, and we continue an active exploration program to unlock large potential. The North Sea, it's the most mature area on the NCS, but it continues to deliver. Big fields get bigger, and we keep on finding more oil in our backyards. Our broader North Sea portfolio consists of 20 fields and delivers north of 100,000 barrels a day, and we plan to maintain high production into the 2030s through infill drilling and a phased project portfolio. During 2024, despite of producing more than 40 million barrels from this area, our reserves base grew. Our contingent resource base also grew, and so did our prospective resource base. This confirms that even though this is a mature area, there is more value to unlock. And I expect this will be repeated next year as we will then have drilled another six exploration wells and refilled our exploration portfolio from the seven new licenses we were awarded in the North Sea in the latest upper round. Sustaining production is about infill drilling, it's about project developments, and it's about exploration. Over the next four years, we will drill more than 100 production wells in this area, of which two-thirds are infill wells. The remaining are associated with early phase projects targeting more than 160 million barrels, and we expect to sanction five of these already in 2025. Torge talked about the UR area expansion, where we are now accelerating several nearby discoveries that subside tiebacks to UR. And just to be clear, we will not stop here. We see significant potential in the UR area, and we will therefore accelerate near-field exploration to grow our resource base and develop quick-to-market barrels. So to summarize the North Sea, Our resource base is growing. We have a large portfolio of early phase projects and infill drilling targets, which will sustain production around 100,000 barrels towards 2030. And we are intensifying exploration. Then the Boulder area. We are almost there, the day that I have been looking forward to, the Jotunn FPSO startup. This opens up a new chapter in the Boulder area. And also here, we have continued to grow our resource base through successful exploration. And we are now lining up the projects in order to capitalize on what we call Boulder X. As the Otun FBSO comes on screen, we will double our production from the area. And this also provides an opportunity to optimize the infrastructure in order to reduce emissions and reduce production costs. Now it's time to capture the value which the BoilerX project has unlocked. And I will show you how on the next slide. Some of you might recall this map from the CMU last year, where I talked about the light blue polygons, more than 70 of them representing drilling targets. This year, some of these polygons have changed color. That means that these have progressed towards drilling. Boulder phase five, including six wells, was sanctioned last year, and we will start the drilling campaign already this month, if weather permits. Boulder phase six is up next, and we're lining up for production startup early 27, as Torger said. And early next year, we will also drill an appraiser well in the Prince Discovery. And here we plan to complete the well and put it straight into production if we find oil. And in the very same well, we will drill a pilot into the ghost prospect to test the basement underneath Ringhorn in a very cheap and efficient way. Ringhornen North, that was a discovery last year, and it was quickly turned into a project shortly after. And now that project is developing and progressing at pace. And as you can see, there are a lot of blue polygons still to be matured. Next year, I'm confident more of these will have changed color as they have turned into either new projects or infill wells. So to recap the Boulder area, we're doubling the area production. Our resource base has grown continuously, and we're lining up the project and prospects to capitalize on Boulder X and sustain production longer term. So to close it off, we will sustain production between 350 to 400,000 barrels towards 2030. We're expanding in the Barents Sea. We're tripling production and sustaining it, backed up by a large reserves and resource base. In the Norwegian Sea, we're unlocking large potential with active exploration and near-term production growth. In the North Sea, our resource base continues to grow, and we will sustain production around 100,000 barrels towards 2030. in the boulder area we're doubling production and aligning up new productions new projects sorry to capitalize on boulder x all in all we deliver growth and value creation and i'm quite excited about the future i will now hand it over to luca who will talk about exploration
The Norwegian continental shelf, or playing field for over 60 years, holds an immense resource potential still to be unlocked. Since the first discovery in 1967, VoEnergy has remained one of the most successful Norwegian continental shelf explorers, with a success rate of around 50% in the last five years, including the recent Contache discovery in the Barents Sea. Today, we have a strong presence across the entire Norwegian continental shelf, perfectly positioned to continue to uncover high-value barrels from our strategic hubs in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea. Through entrepreneurship, collaboration and technology, we nurture an exploration portfolio of over one billion barrels of net risk prospective resources across these areas.
With a plan to drill 60 exploration wells over a four year period, this portfolio is the foundation to sustain production of 350 to 400,000 barrels per day towards 2030. In the North Sea lies the partly electrified Jøa installation in one of our key hubs. This area is proof of our exploration success, with the Jøa North, Ophelia and Sirissa discoveries unlocking up to 110 million barrels. But the area holds more, and we will continue to drill near field, tapping into over 200 million barrels of prospective resources. The potential to create more value is huge.
Here I illustrate the possibilities we see in all our hub areas. Cutting-edge technology, deploying machine learning and state-of-the-art seismic imaging allows us to see reservoir targets not possible in the past. Our diversified teams of experts are meticulously studying over 200 potential prospects across the Norwegian continental shelf. By utilizing the latest and most advanced subsea and multilateral technology, we are committed to turning vast additional resources into high margin barrels, laying the foundation for our success long into the future.
Good afternoon.
My name is Luca Dragonetti. I'm heading exploration in the Norwegian continental shelf for Voronegi. And what a wonderful place it is, the NCS, to perform exploration. It's a unique place. It's one of the best provinces, oil and gas provinces. It has been delivering, it is delivering, and it will be delivering in the coming years. And Vorengi is very well positioned in this environment. We have almost 200 licenses, and we account for some $5 billion barrel of oil equivalent of resources, of prospective resources that translate into roughly one billion of risked resources distributed all over the NCS. So we are not focusing only in one place. Foundations are there. And are fundamental, of course. So let's have a look at how we delivered. In 2024, we have been extremely proud to record six discoveries. But these discoveries proved to be of extremely high value, distributed all over. So it is not, again, a single shot. We got an excellent success in Countach during... an activity that is still continuing. We started a campaign that is ongoing. We will see it later on. It's important because we not only found new resources, but we de-risked dramatically additional resources in the region. We also moved to the south and to the North Sea in particular, where we managed to get infield discoveries like Ceresa, Ringona. You heard about the exploration. It has been mentioned so many times throughout the presentation. It's from where it all started and for us remains key to our organic growth. Ceresa, Ringhoda, speedy developments, and not only that, play openers like the Haydn Discovery are the things that will guarantee new successes in the future and, of course, new developments. All of this, of course, has to be sustained by investments, and this year we got, with the successes, some $370 million dedicated to exploration. The success rate speaks for itself, but it's even more important if we look at it compared to the peers. Our discoveries have been, as I said, of extreme value. We managed to be at the top of the competition in 2024, but it is not only this year. It has happened in the past six years. We delivered over 200 million barrels of oil equivalent at the success rate of 50% roughly and at very low finding cost below $1. This is for us important. It's a demonstration that our strategy pays off. It is a demonstration that we don't have to change the strategy. We just have to do more. and faster, and this is exactly what we are showing here. We are ramping up the amount of work, the amount of activity, we are ramping up the amount of wells. We have 20 wells next year, penciled in. Actually, some of them are already ongoing. It was 13 and it was 7. You can see it's not exponential, but we are doubling up. Don't expect in 2026 40, please. So how do we manage? How do we manage? I believe it's a recipe. and we were chatting along, and I said, because you are Italian, you are talking about recipes, ingredients, we have a long tradition on that, but we also have a long tradition in exploring. And the ingredients are all there, it's just a matter of blending them. people again together with exploration people have been in the presentation through the beginning we have skilled people people that are capable of showing their ideas and people that have been working extensively on all the sectors of the NCS. And we have cross seeding, great exchanges, creative thinking, and eventually, of course, we need a lot of technology. We cannot drill what we cannot see. We leverage on the best possible seismic databases. We leverage on multiple sets of the same 3Ds. cross-check, we integrate with data, and of course we apply as much as possible technology and innovation. Since we were talking about Italian recipes, the final sprinkle can be some parmesan that is coming from Milan and the new HPC6, that is a supercomputer that Annie installed that will will become handy when it comes to complicated 3D processing. So that's how we work, but it's also how we deliver. You heard previously, and you heard also from me, that we did a great success with the Countach Discovery. It's part of an ongoing project campaign, drilling campaign. The well that we are really drilling at the moment is Zagato. We are in the reservoir. It looks very, very good. We hoped we could have made a press release right on time. Unfortunately, the weather is not being clement with us, but it's another another piece of the mosaic that we are building all along the northern ridge of Goliath. Now we have Goliath that is, of course, a producing field. We have Countach that is at the far tip of this ridge. In between, it's just a matter of tying all the dots. And this is exactly what we are doing right now. And we are looking at... adding 150 million of barrels of oil equivalent. Basically, we are getting very, very close to initial estimates for the single Goliath, so we are doubling it up, extending, expanding, and bringing forward the longevity of our assets. It's exactly with the same mindset that we approached another field that has been mentioned before, EOA, Here we have a great support from the seismic data set, a great support from precise picking, great support given by the latest technologies and visualization tools. We believe we have the key to unlock additional 200 million barrels of oil equivalent that have still to be drilled. on top of the 110 that have been recently discovered it's an exciting place to be as i said 2025 looks even more exciting i said 20 20 wells all again distributed throughout the whole uh ncs And we hope to meet you again to celebrate further successes. So the journey continues. Our fuel is dedication, discipline, and, of course, a lot of curiosity. Thank you.
Welcome back for the last part of the programme. Without further ado, I'll just welcome Ellen to the stage, who's going to talk about how we're planning to become carbon neutral by 2030. Thank you, Ida.
Hello, everyone. Good to see you. My name is Ellen and I am leading safety and sustainability in Vår Energi. And I'm very excited to be here today because last year we talked about our ambitious decarbonisation plans. And I'm very happy to say that the ambitious targets remain, but more importantly, we are making solid progress in delivering on them. So let's have a closer look at our decarbonisation plan and what we have achieved. First delivery relates to our near zero targets on methane emissions. And I'm pleased to say that we are already there. Our methane intensity levels, as with the rest of the Norwegian continental shelf, are by far industry leading. New of this year is that we have set an even more ambitious target for a scope one equity emissions. We are going to be carbon neutral by 2030. And I will come back to how that will be achieved. Second delivery is on scope two. We have achieved zero emissions, ensuring that 100% of our purchased electricity comes from renewable sources through guarantees of origin. We continue to maximize emission reductions in the value chain, and we are delivering on our target of offsetting emissions from our own use in the up and downstream transportation. And finally, there is the potential role that carbon capture and storage may play. We have now secured operatorship for both our CCS licenses, Trudvang and Iroko. And as for everything we do, we have a value-driven approach, and we maintain our discipline while we assess how we can create value out of CCS. Now, let's have a closer look at how we're going to be carbon neutral by 2030 through both emission reductions and removals. There are three main levers to our emission reduction plan, which is electrification, its portfolio optimization, and its energy management. In 2030, 75% of our net production will be electrified. With electrification, we see benefits from increased gas sales, higher production efficiency, and reduced operating costs. But we firmly believe that the biggest benefit is to secure long-term value creation and extend the asset life of our core hubs. Portfolio optimization is another key lever. And here, the retirement of the Balder FPU is the main contributor. This will have a positive impact both on emissions and on operating cost. And in addition, we target five to 10% of emission reductions from continuous energy management towards 2030. we won't stop looking for new ways to cut our emissions. But at the same time, we recognize that there will be residual emissions from our operations that needs to be addressed. So let me give you a few examples of how we're doing that. I've already talked about electrification and the important role it plays to secure long-term value creation. Today, we have Goliath, Gjø, Armin Lange, and Sleipner that are already electrified. On energy management, I would like to give you a little flavor of what we're talking about. Because this is really about good colleagues in Varenergi being entrepreneurial every day. they are finding new ways to save energy that in turn reduce emissions. And this relates to how we run the thrusters on Baldra FPU. It relates to how we maintain a turbine on Goliath. And on Ringhornet, it's about improving uptime of a compressor and changing what fuels its turbine. Just to mention a few examples. Another great example of emission reduction initiatives, last year, more than 90% of well steel deliveries came from recycled and low carbon steel. And this can reduce emissions by around 70%. We also improve our logistics operations. And this we do through our collaboration with Equinor. Here we have been optimizing the use of our vessels, helicopters and our supply base handling and with great success. So now we're taking the project further and expanding it to include the rest of the North Sea and the Barents Sea. And we are targeting reducing emissions from these operations with up to 30%. In 2024, we said that 25% of our research and development portfolio spend should be towards low carbon activities and solutions. And we have delivered on this target with a diverse R&D portfolio. Here we have projects ranging from potential carbon capture on vessels in our operations, on how to advance additive manufacturing, and how we can qualify blue carbon credits. And I'm really excited about the latter project here. Here we will restore kelp forests along the Norwegian continental shelf. as kelp captures and stores large amounts of CO2 and plays a crucial role for biodiversity. These are all examples of how we explore new ways to both reduce and remove emissions. And finally, we are offsetting emissions through local forestation projects here in Norway. We have secured long-term agreements that are highly competitive. They provide flexibility and predictability to a low cost in an emerging market. So this is also a key lever to reach our goal of becoming carbon neutral. Our focus and actions give results, and we are really proud to be a top quartile performer. We have low emissions from oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf and a broad alignment in the industry to drive the reductions further down. Our methane intensity is industry leading and well below near zero levels still. Reducing methane emissions is a key part of our decarbonisation plan. And to demonstrate this commitment and to ensure full force in our efforts, we are a member of the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership and a signatory to the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative. For 2024, we are well below global industry average of CO2 emissions intensity, and our target for 2030 is to be below six kilos per barrel. And as you heard from Nick earlier today, Vår Energi last year was included in the Oslo Stock Exchange ESG index as the only E&P company. And we recently got a new rating from Sustainalytics and was included in their industry ESG top rated companies list. And these are positive recognitions and adds weight to our commitment to take a leading ESG position. So, to conclude. In Vår Energi, we believe how we run our business matters. And we're confident that the future belongs to those who produce with low cost and low emissions. And that's why we have an ambitious decarbonization plan to create value, to maintain relevance and investability long into the future. So thank you for your attention. And I now pass the word to our CFO, Carlo.
Thank you, Helen, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm Carlo Santopadre, and it's a real pleasure for me to be here with you today, standing for the first time as CFO of Our Energy. I would like to start by a cap in 2024, a year that has been characterized by strong financial and operational performance. A few highlights I would like to mention. We generated $3.4 billion of cash flow from operation post-tax. Our flexible gas strategy continued to capture upsides and we delivered in 2024 around $300 million of additional gas revenues at both spot price. We have continued to have a strong balance sheet with a leverage ratio of 0.8 net depth to EBITDAX at the end of the year. As already mentioned by Torger, we have increased the expected synergies from the Neptune transaction to around $600 million, doubling the initial estimate at the time of the announcement. We confirmed the Q4 dividend to $270 million, totaling dividend of $1.8 billion for the full year 2024. In addition, we are showing strength by raising dividends in Q1, as we enter a year of transformational growth. We are also raising the floor of our long-term dividend guidance to 25-30%. We achieved high realized prices in 2024. We generated nearly 1.7 billion revenues in Q4 and around 7.4 billion in the year. For the full year, the average realized gas price is $73, which represents a premium to the spot. And this amounted to around $300 million in extra sales revenue in 2025 alone. The realized price for oil in Q4 was $73 per barrel. In Q4, the realized price for gas was $78 per BOE, slightly below the sport market reference price, mainly due to a portion of the gas being sold on a month-ahead basis in a rising market, whereas the impact will be the opposite in a descending price market. Looking forward, we continue to have a robust gas sales portfolio with access to several markets, and we continue to have flexibility in the contracts to decide the split between a month ahead, day ahead, and fixed price. In the gas year 2024-25, we opted to minimize the exposure to the gas year higher price at just 5% of our volumes. We made this choice because we expected the gas market to be strong, and we were right. Going into 2025 summer months, we are taking advantage of the strong pricing and we have already locked in additional volumes under fixed price, resulting in around 15% of volumes locked in at a price of around $81 per BOE in Q2 and Q3. We enter 2025 with a solid liquidity and financial position, with a cash balance of $279 million and a total available liquidity above $1.3 billion. We have a diversified long-term capital structure, with an average debt maturity of around five years, which aligns the strategic needs of the business. This forms the basis for resilient and attractive shareholder distributions toward 2030. Looking at the development of our cash position from Q3 to Q4, we generated above $1.2 billion before tax and working capital movements, slightly down compared to the previous quarter. Working capital contributed negatively with around $80 million as a result of an increase in trade receivables. Tax payments amount to $773 million, doubling compared to the previous quarter given that two tax installments were paid in Q4. We further had a cash outflow of $723 million in investments in our high-value growth projects nearing completion. Also, we distributed a splendid $270 million in dividends to our shareholders in November. As mentioned by Nick earlier, we have a strong foundation for sustainable value creation and sustainable shareholder returns over time. We are set to deliver more than 400,000 barrels per day in Q4 this year, and we have a clear and robust plan to sustain production between 350,000 and 400,000 barrels per day towards 2030. Throughout this period, we will deliver high-margin barrels with a free cash flow neutrality of around $40 in the period 2025-2030. High production and low cost is a perfect combination to deliver a very strong and resilient free cash flow in the range of $5 to $9 billion over the period. Underpinned also by high capex flexibility, with around 70% of capex toward 2030 uncommitted. All this with an investment-grade balance sheet. remain committed to attractive and predictable shareholder returns and as we enter a cycle of growth and strong profits and free cash flow generation we announced today that we are raising the guidance for percentage of cffo post tax to 25 to 30 percent our capital allocation framework remains unchanged we have a clear and balanced capital allocation framework in place to ensure resilience growth and attractive distribution We are set for sustaining production on existing fields and funding CAPEX of new value-creating projects and high exploration activity with a disciplined CAPEX policy and an average portfolio breakeven of around $35 per barrel for the new projects. We are committed to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet and a robust credit profile while paying dividends according to our stated policy. Additional free cash flow will be used for extra shareholder distribution and leveraging. We also have clear criteria for any M&A activity focused on the NCS, with a very selective and disciplined approach, designed to capture growth opportunities and exploit synergies around our existing operations. The most important thing for us is to drive value for our shareholders. Looking at the next six years, we are very well positioned to deliver attractive and reliable shareholder distribution while we continue to invest in high-value barrels. In the period 2025-2030, we are expecting to generate a cumulative free cash flow in the range of $5 to $9 billion, assuming a breadth of $65 to $85, which will be available for shareholder distribution and debt repayment. As you can see in the waterfall, These cash flow estimates include uncommitted investment and exploration capex, but excludes the potential future cash flow generation associated with the development of successful exploration discoveries. We have a significant cash flow resilience, and you can appreciate the robust cash generation across various prices and the high dividend capacity going forward. We are free cash flow neutral at just $40 per barrel in the period 2025-2030. As investments are starting to flatten and decline beyond 2025, we are expecting high cash flow generation from higher production, and this is an amazing combination of positive factors. Beyond 2025, we have a high degree of flexibility with regards to cap expanding as we mature our portfolio of new development projects. We also have a low leverage ratio and a solid balance sheet. And all this underpins our resilient dividend capacity in both the short, medium, and longer term, leaving also headroom for the leveraging. Looking now more closely at the capex. The investment peak in 2024 of around $2.6 billion is now behind us. Looking forward, we have a flattening to decline capex profile toward 2030. We are doing more and faster to sustain production and value creation further out in time while maintaining capital discipline. We now have the main portion of our sanctioned projects with the majority of investment behind us. And the growth from this will come this year, taking us to more than 400,000 buyers per day in Q4. And looking beyond 2025, we have a strong portfolio of value, a creative subsea type of projects with a short time to market that will sustain the production at 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day toward 2030. We will continue to be disciplined in selecting what will bring an investment decision to maintain our average return on breakeven and breakeven requirements for the portfolio. IRR above 25% and breakeven around $35 per barrel. One important future of operating in the NCS is the stable fiscal framework. As you know, the tax system allows for immediate deduction of capital spending against the special petroleum tax, and this makes it an investment-supportive regime, as you can clearly see from the presentation. Let's now have a look at the tax guidance for 2025. For the first semester of 2025, we plan to pay around $7 billion NOC. And these are related to the 2024 results. At mid-year, we will update the tax estimate for 2025, and in the second half of this year, we will be paying approximately 50% of the 2025 estimated profits. We have included tax sensitivity for the second half of the year at different price scenarios, hoping that this can provide some guidance on tax payments going forward. Turning now to our financing, we have a solid balance sheet supporting an investment grade rating. We have leveraged significantly over the past few years with a net debt to EBITDAX ratio reduced from 3.2 at the end of 2020 to 0.8 at the end of 2024. This is well below our leverage target through the cycle of below 1.3. We also have a prudent approach to risk management, and we actively seek to protect the downside while maintaining upside. This supports our capital allocation framework and underpins our ability to be predictable in investment plans and shareholder distribution. Our gas sales strategy gives us predictability. We have a robust insurance policy in place, including loss of production coverage, and we have long-term off-take agreements with investment-grade counterparties in Europe. We remain committed to maintain our investment grade rating. Move to the next. Vorenergy has a strong track record of delivering value to our shareholders. Since the IPO, we have returned more than $3.2 billion in dividend, and now we are stepping up the dividend level. We have paid around $1.1 billion annually over the past three years. Now we are increasing the dividend guidance for Q1 2025 to $300 million, showing the commitment of the company to attractive shareholder distribution. We are also raising our dividend policy from 20-30% of the CFF after-tax to 25-30% going forward. For 2025, we expect to be in the low end of 25-30% range of CFF after-tax. The second half planned dividend payments will be based on interim audit financial accounts for the six months 2025. 2025 will be a transformative year for the company in terms of production growth, which is resulting in a significant profit and cash flow generation ample to cover the guided dividends for the year. I think this slide speaks for itself. Since we listed back in February 2022, we have delivered more than 80% in total shareholder return. And in total, we have returned around 3.2 billion in dividends to our shareholders. Vol Energy is now at the beginning of 2025 at an inflection point, entering a monumental year for the business. We are very well positioned for continued value creation in the years to come. Our production is significantly stepping up toward the end of this year and next, resulting in a double-digit growth of EBITDAX and CFFO generation. In brief, we are set to deliver on our growth plan and sustained value creation, and we will continue to pay attractive dividends and predictable in the years to come. Finally, I will summarize our key 2025 long-term guidance. For 2025, our production guidance is 330,000 to 360,000 barrels per day, reaching more than 400,000 barrels per day by Q4 2025. We will maintain approximately 400,000 barrels per day in 2026. And further, we will sustain 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day until 2030. 2025 production cost will be between $11 and $12 per barrel, down to around $10 per barrel by Q4 as we ramp up production. CAPEX will be at $2.3 to $2.5 billion in 2025, going down to $2 to $2.5 billion thereafter. Exploration expenses and ABEX will be in the range of $200 to $300 million and $150 million respectively. For this year, we plan to invest around $350 million in exploration activities. Last but not least, we are increasing to $300 million for Q1 2025 of our dividends, and we are raising the dividend guidance to 25-30% of the CFFO post-tax for the longer term. For 2025, we expect to be at the low end of the range. With that, I hand it back to Nick for concluding remarks. Thank you.
Well, thank you, Carlo. And I've just one final slide to wrap up and emphasize our key messages again. And for energy's position to deliver significant growth, value and strong shelter returns. And I hope we've got that across you today. We're one of the fastest growing EMPs and on track to produce over 400,000 barrels a day in Q4 this year. And our high-quality portfolio will organically sustain production of 350 to 400,000 barrels a day towards 2030. And this is supported by high-value investments, and we're stepping up the pace to deliver on these. And I believe we will incrementally improve the outlook, adding significant value for our shareholders. And we will continue to reduce emissions, becoming carbon neutral by 2030. I think we've shown you that we have a resilient business with high capex flexibility, delivering strong free cash flow of $5 to $9 billion to 2030. And this supports attractive and predictable dividends with a raised payout guidance. I think these are the reasons to be invested in Vorenergy. And with that, I'm going to hand back to Ida, who's going to run our Q&A sessions. And I think Torga and Carla are going to join me on stage. So thank you very much.
Thank you, Nick. We will now open up for questions. We will start with questions from the room, and then we will take any questions from the call after that. Can I please ask you to present yourself and limit yourself to two questions, and then we can take the rest at the end if there's time. Let's start here in the room. Let's start on this side with Joon.
Thank you. It's John with ABG. I have a question regarding Balder. I don't know whether it's for, yeah, who it is for. Maybe it's for Torgy, the head of operations. But could you tell us what you regard the key risks remaining for all the starting production late Q2, please? That's the first part of the question. The key risk? Yeah.
For us, Balder, or Jotun, because it is really about Jotun, is to get it complete. We are, as we said, highly advanced when it comes to the commissioning. Really, it's fine-tuning remaining. What you didn't say is, of course, weather permitting. We really focus now to complete the work and then go offshore. I also talked about the ramp-up phase, but here as well, we have a solid stock of wells. I think really what we see is that folks ignore this opportunity to get it out there, starting up and then tying in all these nice prospects. So we are really, I would say, happy and feeling good with where we stand at the moment on Balder, finally, so to speak.
But you're very safe. It will sail away in March.
Yeah, you know, we are confident and really focusing on that, as I said, well advanced in the preparation and the work to be done there. And I walked you through the steps we are taking now to take it first inshore, then offshore, and then pushing the button and starting up.
Thank you.
And my second question is regarding... Maybe can I intervene a bit? I mean, just to reinforce, I mean, we are really confident this is going out in March. I mean, Torge and I had a review the other day. This boat is complete. It's in the final stages of commissioning. It is going out in March, and we're confident of that. And then we have a period of hookup, and we expect it to be by the end of Q2 or sometime in June. And the scope of work offshore is not that significant. And so we feel very good about delivering on this now.
Thank you very much. It's very good to hear it from the horse's mouth, not only reading it in the paper. So thanks for that. But then secondly, on the production profile of Balder, you say that the peak production will be about 80,000 barrels, and it should take two or three months to ramp up to reach that level. But then in late Q4 or late this year, Balder 5 will start production. Balder 5 will have a production capacity of 20,000 barrels. So I just wonder, you're going to 80,000 barrels sometimes in Q3. Will that 80 be down to 60 by the end of the year to let in 20,000 from Balder 5? Is it falling that quickly on Balder?
The Balder, as we have been communicating before, the Balder profile is rather peaky, as we call it. And that is also why we have been working steadily to add new barrels and bringing well capacity in. So that is also why the timing of Balder Phase 5 and Balder Phase 6 is so good and so important. So that is correct, how we are building the capacity there.
And for how long do you expect to be able to keep production at about 80,000 barrels, including all tie-ins going forward? Final question, that is.
Yeah, you know, as I said, our focus now is really to mature and develop these projects as pace, as we said, and then we will really see how the plateau will be. But we see that through the phase five and through the phase six going forward.
Okay, thank you.
There's a question here from Theodor, Sparbank 1.
Thank you for a very good update. Very useful. Two questions. First on CapEx. You saw a graph illustrate CapEx from 26 to 2030. That is obviously up compared to what you showed last year. And I understand some of the reason that is the five new projects you added into your portfolio. But could you talk a little bit about what's activity driven and what is inflation slash cost driven in that increase then? Second question that is on exploration. Very impressive with the 50% hit ratio last year. Why are you so good?
Maybe if I start on the first one, Theodore, you know, for us, this is activity driven. You know, it's the more faster approach. And really, we are, as you said, we are moving forward with pace now on the projects, you know, eight plan sanction this year, more infill. So that is really predominantly activity driven. and of course also through our strategic partnerships makes us more able to really manage also the inflation of the cost increase. So this is predominantly activity driven and this is of course activities with high value equation and you saw the metrics break evens and internal rate of return. So that is there. When it comes to, I don't know if you were on the exploration side.
Have you seen any kind of cost inflation at all since last year?
I know since since last year, you know, I think there is some elements that is always it could be, you know, more constrained than others. But for our portfolio, what we really like there is that we believe that we are a bit, let's say, countercyclic. We talked about that last year as well. But, you know, there is a big activity in our particular related to the yard activities. We are more or less done on the yard activities. Then, of course, it starts. calming down, I will say. And then what we see for our timing of the portfolio, and you saw how well it was scattered around, this is a good timing also for hitting the market when there is starting to free up capacity. And that is also what we see when we are talking to our strategic partners, that yes, they are starting to come in capacity. So there is a very good fit there. I think number one is that we have to ensure that we have efficient concepts. That is always the best way of contracting market-driven inflation. And we have that. We standardize, it's optimized, and then also we have long-term contracts on like rigs that enter in years back. So that is protecting that part of it. Then I think on exploration, and I'm sure maybe Nick will give some response. I think what Luca showed, we have a good combination of both, but it's always quality ahead of quantity. And that then building on the hub approach, that we are moving steadily and consistently through our hubs where we have significant subsurface knowledge. You see it in the EU area, you see it in the Goliath area. I think that is really this. And then of course, the passion, utilizing the technology, utilizing the seismic, building on the great competence of E&I. I think that is the recipe. I'm not as good on recipes and ingredients as Luca is, but I think that is the recipe, how we see it. Consistent work over time.
So we should expect 50% hit ratio this year as well?
Luca was positive there, so I took note of that, Luca. But as I said, we shouldn't deem this based on one well or one season. This is long-term hard work as such.
And I think, Theodore, you should look at this as a portfolio. I mean, people often ask which wells you're excited about. I mean, we're going to drill 20 wells. They all have a range of risks and profiles in them, some that you think might work and don't work, and the things that you think possibly are more risky do work. So we have a big portfolio, and I think that really helps. But just to reinforce, I think it's about passion, creativity, and technology are the key aspects that drive success, and we've got all of those. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from Sasi at Morgan Stanley.
Hi, thanks. It's Sasi Khan from Morgan Stanley. I have two questions. The first one was related to the production profile that you've kind of provided. When I compare it with the one that you provided last year, there seems to be a big increase in the base production profile. extending to 2027 2028 as well and the role of the contribution of the early phase projects has come down and it's much more pronounced post 2028 now so just wondering what's changed the early phase projects have actually increased in number as well so if you could comment on that the second was related to the balder fpu retirement it's been highlighted that it will be retired by before 2030 is just wondering if you had any timeline for that and uh yeah the contribution of that fbu itself what what is assumed in your production profile when it comes to the to the the first question um
I forgot that.
The base profile.
Yeah, the base profile, of course. That is really the effect of moving more faster. That is that we are maturing. We're taking it from resources into reserves. So that is really showing the effect there, that we are moving projects, we are making sanctions, and then increasing the base going forward. That was a little bit what I said, you know, the 2p is really what creates the base, and you saw there that we have increased our 2p from end of 23 to end of this year. So that is there. Then the Balder FPU. There we are really looking into, we are defining what we call the Balder next phase. There and looking into how we are going to, or when we are going to do it. We are also here looking this into an area picture because our plan is not to lose any reserves or lose any production to this. We think by doing this with an area approach, we will add value. not only that we are reducing the OPEX, but also utilizing and using that to recover more of the reserves, but among others to do some re-drills. We see potential there. Remember all the polygons that Rune was talking about? So that is really the work now. As everything else in war, we are looking to do more faster. So we are really now defining that project to ensure that we are doing it for the best for the entire area. So it will rather move towards us than out in time. That is what we are planning to do. So it will have a positive impact on our value equation in the area. Combine that with reduced OPEX and reduced emissions.
And then Boulder FPU.
Apologies.
Question from Victoria McCulloch, ABC. Hi, thanks very much. Victoria McCulloch at RBC. So a couple of questions for me. Can you just remind us on Johan Casberg what your expectations are for the time on the plateau? How long that should last? Should we take from the slides based on 2027 infill drilling that that lasts for about two years? And secondly, on one of the slides, you show base production appearing flat from 2024 out to Q4 25. What is your base decline assumption across your assets?
When it comes to Casper, starting there, as you saw, and there is a huge activity there, really, the plan is to extend the part tour there, towards 2030. Building on the phase one, the IOR, increased recovery program, the cluster one and the cluster two, and you saw also the potential of unrisked resources in the area. So that is really the focus, and we believe there is So there's a clear potential in that regard. And just on your assets as a whole? Yeah, and then it does decline. I think we simply said, you know, it's around a 10% decline in our portfolio, you know, in average.
But that's for the fields that are on decline. I mean, there's some things like Snowbit, for example, that goes on plateau for 2040 or something. And so those are obviously not declining. So it depends which assets you look at.
Thanks very much. We'll take the next from Mark Wilson, Jefferies.
Thank you. Yeah, it's Mark Wilson, Jefferies. My first question would be on Jotun, FBSO on the ramp up to 80 there. You said yourself a few times it's peaky production. So can you just remind us if there's any other variables we need to be aware of in how that ramps up like is there a material water injection angle to what you've got set up with jota now and and has the fpso been have that capacity increased or anything and just be really interested to know that side of things
You know, for Jotun and for the Balrax, we are planning with one water indexer that is already drilled and ready to do that. So that is the plan when it comes to the water injection program as such. And there as well, you know, we have the wells ready and we are going to there. And that is also one of the things that we are continuing working on to really optimize the ramp up towards. And, you know, we said three to four months before we reached the plateau of 80,000 barrels.
Okay, so really this is a free flow from the production wells coming on more than injection angles.
That's true. I see Arun is nodding as well, which is really the expert in this area.
I'm going to take the nodding. I like that.
That's good.
My second question is on the finances. A very impressive outlook on the free cash flow and a very clear dividend framework as well. You give a range of oil prices of 65 to 85 with the free cash flow outlook. Could we ask that 65 is not that far away from where we are? Could you say whether that framework return would hold if we went outside of those oil price ranges that you show?
Our dividend policy and our framework actually remains stable exactly to put us in the condition to operate. And what is very important is to remind that we are $40 breakeven, just $40, which is much far away from where we are now. And actually, what's another important point that I believe we have to consider is that We have a significant exposure to gas, which is going to be more or less 30% of our production. And actually, the gas market we see is strong, and we believe it will remain quite strong. And it is adding, as Nick was mentioning before, additional edging from a financial perspective. So to answer your question, the design that our capital allocation framework has is set up to work under different scenarios. Obviously, we don't believe We believe that the price range we have used is what we feel comfortable is going to be the medium-term outlook for the macro.
And I think there's another added benefit here. I mean, we tried to emphasize the flexibility in our program. You know, we've got a lot of small projects. We're not big projects. And so 70% of our future capital is uncommitted, which gives us lots of choices. So if we see a period of lower prices, we can slow down some things and still maintain cash flow. And so we've got lots of flexibility. And I think that's one way to look at how you look at the sustainability of our dividends looking forward.
got a question from stephanie dnb
Thank you. Stefan from DMB Markets. First question on infield drilling. You said 40 to 50,000 barrels contribution per year. I'm curious to know what has this been historically? Is this incremental from previous years or is this something that's already sort of been in your production historically? And my second question is on the ball. They're just a housekeeping one. So you say 80,000 barrels per day of production. Is that on top of the current 25 or is it incremental?
Starting on the last, it's on top. So that was also what Rune talked about, that we are already coming up to 100,000 barrels in the area. So that's on top, gross number. And then on the infill side, yes, we have been doing infill you know, earlier, and we are doing infill. What we see is that we are stepping up that program. So, you know, this has been part of our production, you know, profile, also this year and previous years, but, of course, not of a magnitude as we see now where we are stepping that up, and that also, I think, was very well explained by Rune in his section where we are doing that now, and we are doing it very actively into our own operated hubs like Goliath and We're also going to do it for Fenja and Jura and so on. So that is, and of course also, this is not only operated wells we're talking about, this is also our participation as partner in some of the other areas, which we see that Equinor, for instance, is doing this in the Snorre area. ConocoPhillips is doing it in the EcoFisk area and so on. So that is what is incorporated in the outlook for our infill program going forward. so that means that your base decline will essentially be lower going forward than what it has been historically if infill sort of ramps up yeah that will of course have our impact that we are then reducing and contracting some of the decline we see in the in in the reservoir so that is of course one of the most efficient way to to build that and extend the production in in the areas or the you know building on the well-known reserves that is there. That is also why we are so happy about it because it is very simple and it brings production immediately and it is very low cost and a very good economy.
Thank you. Any more questions from the audience? Anders here at the front.
Hi. Since this is a Q4 report as well, so I guess you'll be able to answer some Q4 questions. Could you explain the reversal of the impairment of Balderx in Q4?
Yeah, the evasion is mostly driven by the sanctioning of the phase 5 that occurred in October and such were reviewed at our profile and we saw upside in the short-term emitter production of the field and this has led to an increase in PV which allowed us to reverse the impairment that was posted in September.
Any further questions, Anish? No? In that case, we have a question. Was there another one here? Yes.
Thank you. On the reserve replacement ratio, we reported 300% impressive, but that includes Neptune. Do you have a number for the organic?
That number, I mean, is around 70-ish percent.
On 2P reserves? On 2P. Okay, thank you.
Great, and then a question from .
Yes, you have this great ban, like a high-end and low-end for production in 2025. Is it possible to give some indication of what would you say is low-end and high-end next year, below and above the 400?
We haven't guided that at this stage. Well, we said it's approximately 400. And, you know, there'll be a range around that, of course. But, you know, we felt comfortable enough that approximately 400 to put it out there. And so you should feel comfortable that we can deliver that.
Okay, thank you.
Then we'll take a question from the call from Matt Smith at Bank of America. Please go ahead. Change his mind. That's it out. Then we have time for one more question from here.
Thank you. I just wonder, between now and 2030, you give this guidance for free cash flow with various oil prices. Just a question, between now and 2030, do you plan to reduce the net interest bearing debt during that period, or should we assume that to stay flattish? i.e., all the free cash flow that you're indicating of five to nine, depending on 65 or 85 dollar price, is that going to go to shareholders? They're also going to go to the banks.
Again, let's look at our allocation framework. The free cash flow generation we have is important. Five to nine billion is a very important and very material number. And we want to remain predictable and attractive in terms of dividend. Nonetheless, the leveraging is part of our capital allocation framework. And as such, the guidance we do is to be balanced in all the angles of our capital allocation framework. So 2030 is far in time, but the leverage is also part of what we look at.
But I think the other way to look at this is that we're investing all the way through to 2030 as well. And that's things that we invest in in 29 and 2030 pay out post 2030. And so as long as we keep sustaining the business and cash flow long term, we can sustain debt higher long term. And as long as we can continue to believe we can do that, and we do, then we can hold higher debt for longer. But I think over time, our plan would be to deleverage a bit, but to balance that with paying shareholder returns.
So someday leveraging between now and 2030?
Well, you know, it's too hard to predict that because I don't know what's ahead of us. Actually, I think we have the opportunity to potentially, as I say, incrementally improve the business. So can we make it, can we grow production of it? Can we grow reserves? Can we reduce costs? I believe we can make this business outlook better and better over time. And the more we can do that, the more we can sustain debt longer term, and we can grow the business and return shareholder returns. I think this will evolve. It's a long way out to 2030, and... But, you know, we manage the company prudently and with a concerted leverage ratio, and we intend to maintain investment-grade balance sheet long-term, and that's going to require us to have a long-term outlook that supports that.
My final question, if I may. You have like 800 million of book equity left in your balance sheets, and all that is the hybrid. I just wonder, compared to the balance sheet value of, is it somewhere in 20, 30 billion? If something happens, oil prices are low or gas prices low or a write-down or something, what would happen if the book value of debt is zero or negative, including the hybrid? Will you still be able to pay a dividend?
I believe that you should look at a situation with a net value of zero or negative. What we see is that in 2025 we are going to enter into a year with a lot of profits and cash flow generation that are able to sustain our dividend. So this is our starting point. In addition to that, as I mentioned already, we have a very low break-even and we are very flexible in our activity. So all those are the elements that lead us to absolutely be confident that the situation you are looking at, the negative equities, not... Yeah, but in the scenario that it turned negative.
Because, I mean, you lost a billion of book value of equity over the last 12 months. So if the same thing happens over the next 12 months... It is negative. And I think consensus net income is lower than your guided or indicated dividend of 1.2 for the next 12 months. So the book value will go down, unless the estimates are too low, that is. But I just wonder, if it's negative, will you still pay a dividend, or shouldn't we be concerned about that at all?
Again, first of all, we guide a range. We guide quarter by quarter. We'll continue guiding, as we have done already, quarter by quarter in accordance to macro and operational performance. Company act is there. So negative equity, again, is not a scenario that we see. If you make an example, which is a theoretical example, it's something that we don't see.
Okay. Okay. You know, we generate a lot of income and we can sustain this longer term and we're a bit sort of slim on equity. But I think, you know, we've got the flexibility to continue over time and generate a lot of cash flow and profit. So we just don't see that as being an issue.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. And we're now on time. We actually have room for one more question, Mark.
Thank you, Mark Wilson. Jeff, question from the market. The longer term CapEx guidance, two to two and a half billion. I think that was one and a half to two billion last year. Obviously, the production range is the same. Could you just help us bridge the gap there of the new CapEx range? Thank you.
Perhaps I'll try this. I mean, the reality is that we have more projects in the hopper and some of those a bit bigger. And so that's why we see longer term capex spend. The reality is what we're not showing is what the impact of that is, because a lot of this comes towards the end of 29 and 30, which is an increase on what we showed previously. And so, you know, that creates value in production post 2030. I think we're here for the long term as a company. We're an upstream only oil and gas company based in Norway. We don't see us finishing in 2030. We continue to see us creating value long term, and that's what we're about. If Luca makes some good discoveries, A lot of those are going to come online post then, and we think this is a good frame, $2 to $2.5 billion per year is a good frame to sustain ourselves longer term.
Exactly, being opportunity accretive and being value accretive, I think that is what it reflects. We've got a question up there as well.
Yeah, Corinne. If you can use the microphone, please.
What is your gas policy for 2025? Is there a possibility that you're going to make the 300 million extra revenues again? Or what is your idea about the gas prices at this moment? And are you hedging your position, for example?
OK, I can take that. We're not edging position, just to understand we're not making edging on gas. What we see in the gas market is that we cannot say if it's going to be 300 million more as happened in 2024, because clearly speaking, this depends on how the market will develop. What we see is a gas market which is strong. We believe we remain strong. We create opportunities. What we have to consider is that we have two main features that we can use. First of all, we have internal skills and knowledge, because we have a dedicated team doing that, so we have knowledge on the market. And we also have the contractual possibility to opt for a month ahead, a day ahead. And as such, we have tools that can allow us to do that again. We have done this consistently for the last nine quarters, over the last 12. So we've been very consistent in delivering a both spot price. And the market conditions are there to continue being value generative under this perspective.
And maybe I can add to that a little bit. I mean, we have a great team of people driving this. We sell all our own gas. We have a team of people driving it. We understand the market and the complexities. You know, a year ago, you'll see that we didn't lock in much as fixed price contracts. On year ahead, it's very small. That's perfect. And that's because when we were able to lock it in, we had a feeling that the market was going to be stronger at the end of this year as we went into the end of last year and going into this year. And, you know, we took the judgment that we shouldn't lock any gas in. And so we didn't. And what we want to do is achieve is that we don't sell gas for less than spot over time, but we give ourselves a chance to do more. And I think we made the right decision then. As Carlo said when he was presenting, we have locked in some volumes for next summer or this summer because we see the strong prices now. They're over $100 a barrel today and we're using that opportunity to lock in some prices in the summer. We'll find out when we go through that whether we've made the right decision, but that's what we're doing, and we're using the flexibility in our portfolio to achieve that. But I think when you look back in time, the team have done an amazing job to create value over time through this, and I think we've got a good opportunity to continue to do that.
Great. One final question from the Schultzenden.
Thank you. It was inspiring, the last question about hedging in the gas market, and I think I'll just follow up with a question on hedging in the oil exposure. I guess you continue to hedge your downside at $50, as you've done in the past.
2025 is fully hedged at $50.
Just on that topic, I guess that costs you a couple of hundred million dollars a year. It's a couple of dollars per barrel you've said in the past. Is that so?
We do post-tax. First of all, it's post-tax. Actually, it's less than that. For 2025, it's less than that. It's not $200 million per year. It's more in the range of $60 million.
Is that done in the market, or is that done towards counterparties that you know? Is there a bilateral risk there, or is it cleared in the markets?
Can you repeat, please?
The put options that you are buying, is that cleared instruments, or is that done bilaterally against another party that you... It's a cleared instrument. It's a cleared business. Okay. Thank you.
But what I will say is that, you know, as we've grown, and our big projects are behind us, there's less need to do this. And you can see our, you know, a cash flow neutral at $40. And, you know, we'll probably not continue beyond this year on this. I think we can use the money for other better things.
Great. That concludes the Q&A and Vara Energy's Capital Markets Day 2025. Thank you so much for joining us here today in Oslo and on the webcast. We wish you a good rest of your day.