2/10/2026

speaker
Operator

Energy, the foundation for development and prosperity. Connecting people, powering industries, driving progress everywhere, every day, making oil and gas essential for decades to come. Roar Energy, a pure play oil and gas company, delivering reliable access to affordable energy to millions of households and businesses across Europe. A safe and responsible partner generating high returns and long-term value for all stakeholders. We explore, develop and produce from a high quality diverse portfolio with production hubs across the attractive Norwegian continental shelf. Known for low cost and emissions, a significant resource base and political stability. Our highly competent people, collaborating with strategic partners, have delivered transformational growth, doubling production in just two years, de-risking the company, while driving operational excellence, strong cost discipline, and leading ESG performance. With an entrepreneurial mindset, we are stepping up the pace, doing more faster. developing a pipeline of highly profitable standardized near-field subsea tieback projects from our significant discovered resource base across the norwegian shelf and exploring for more delivering higher production well beyond 2030 creating more value for longer

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to welcome you all to Var Energy's 2026 Capital Markets Update and presentation of our fourth quarter 2025 results. It's great to see so many people here in the room and also joining us on the webcast. 2025 has been a transformational year for the company, and today we will present an updated plan. for how we will be delivering higher production and more value for longer, with material cash flow generation and attractive dividends. Our CEO, Nick Walker, will lead the way, followed by presentations held by several members of our leadership team. In addition to Nick, Torgir, Carlo and Ellen, we will have our head of projects, Oddgar Dalarna, that will walk us through our high-value project portfolio, and our head of exploration, Luca Dragonetti, who will take us through how we will continue to deliver value through our exploration activities. Following the presentations, we will open up for questions. With that, I'd like to invite Nick to the stage.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you, Ida, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Vore Energy's 2026 Capital Markets Update, together with a review of our full year 2025 results. And it's really great to see you all here again in Oslo, and also a warm welcome to all of you who are joining us online. I'm pleased to report that we delivered on our plan for transformational growth in 2025, delivering record-high production, strong financial performance, and significant value creation. And I'm excited for the outlook for Vore Energy. We have fantastic assets, a tremendous team, and you'll see today that we have strong momentum improving the outlook for the company, and as we say, to create more value for longer. And there's four key messages we want to get across today. Firstly, we significantly de-risked the company with our major projects now complete, as you can see in this beautiful photograph today. Buoneggi has never been in a stronger position. And secondly, we will deliver higher production for longer with more growth opportunities. Thirdly, we're incrementally improving for increased resilience and flexibility. And finally, we have higher value creation, ensuring long-term attractive shareholder returns. I think these are the drivers for significant value creation and are the themes that will run through everything that we talk about today. But first, I want to provide some context to the business environment, as I think it informs how we see our strategy and the decisions that we make every day for the future of the company. I think it's incredible that world population has doubled over my lifetime from four to eight billion people. And at the same time, you can see that global energy demand has tripled and will continue to grow as the developing world wants the same living standards that we all enjoy. And this continued energy growth is despite significant improvements in energy efficiency. And it's going to be interesting to see the impact of AI and data centers and what that will have on the future demand for energy. And of course, affordable and reliable energy is vital for economic growth and prosperity. And all credible outlooks show oil and gas will be required for decades, in addition to an increased share of renewable energy. In reality, what is happening is energy addition. It's not either or. The world needs both hydrocarbons and renewable energy sources. And to provide affordable and reliable energy to all and meet the demand for gas, which is a critical transition fuel, it's clear the world needs significant new investments in oil and gas to offset declines, as you can see on the chart. This requires long-term investment horizons. And we're seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world. And this can lead to a lower-for-longer price scenario. And we need to take this into account as we make investment decisions for Vore Energy. To be able to invest through the cycles requires a focus on high-quality, low-break-even projects. And you'll see that Vore Energy is doing just that. And our view is that in any scenario, oil and gas will be essential for world energy supply for decades. And those that can produce with low break-even prices and with as little emissions as possible will have competitive advantage. And as many of you have heard me say before, I believe that Norway is one of the best places to invest in oil and gas. And the reasons for this are really very clear. It's low cost. It's low emissions. In fact, it's world leading. And that is why Norway should be the last oil and gas region to be shut in. There's large remaining resources with continued access to new acreage. There's been long term reliable framework conditions and supportive fiscal regime. And the NCS is a key supplier of energy to Europe. And oil and gas is key to Norway as a major source of industrial activity and employment across the country. This has all been driven by long-term government and public support for the industry. And our assessment is this support is strengthening. And all of these factors have resulted in strong competitive advantage for Norway. It attracts the investment needed to develop the shelf and because Norway is seen as a reliable producer with low emissions. And so in this context, our strategy is really very simple. It's also consistent, and you'll see this is the same slide we've used for a few years. And our strategy is to ensure growth and value creation for all stakeholders over time. It's to be a pure-play Norwegian oil and gas company for the reasons that I've set out. And it's to be a reliable and secure supplier of affordable energy to Europe. And finally, it's to be safe and responsible about how we conduct our business. And we're delivering on our strategy and targets, as we will demonstrate today. And as you can see here, the company has a strong track record of value creation, incrementally improving how we perform. From 2018, when the company was established, we've increased production by almost two and a half times. building the third largest producer on the NCS. And it's quite possible that this quarter will become the second largest producer. And we've significantly improved efficiency and costs, whilst at the same time materially growing reserves and resources. This is combining to deliver strong financials and returns. And you can see we achieved a total shareholder return since the IPO four years ago of 115%. And as we all show today, we continue to improve the outlook for the company, creating material value for longer. And we continue to transform as a company to deliver more value and faster, incrementally improving every day to realize the opportunities in our portfolio. This is what I think about every morning when I wake up. How do we make it better and better? It's all about harnessing the entrepreneurial energy in the company where everyone can make a difference and contribute to value creation. And our heritage means we have deep and unique NCS expertise and we are leveraging this. And I think technology is also key, but it's also about implementing to create value. Of course, we don't deliver alone. We rely on partnerships and collaboration. Our licensed partners, in particular Equinor, and key suppliers amongst the best in their fields to help us deliver. And we also draw on the capabilities and expertise of our major shareholder, E&I. And as much of our value will be delivered through subsea tiebacks, we've established our subsea project factory approach, with more on that later. This is how we all create value, and you'll see many examples of this from my colleagues today. And safe and responsible operations are key to our license to operate. And we have high ambition to be the safest operator. I think overall, we've had good safety and environmental trend from our operations. And you can see in 2025, we had zero actual serious incidents, material process safety events, and accidental spills to sea. But however, we're continuing to have too many low-level incidents, which is a strong improvement focus across our organizations. And we continue to decarbonise our operations to ensure relevance and investability long term. And you can see we're already in the top 15% globally on emissions intensity and our methane emissions are at the near zero level. So we're already doing very well, but our aim is to reduce our emissions further. And in addition to emissions reductions, Bore Energy aims to become carbon neutral in our net equity operational emissions by 2030 through removals in the voluntary carbon market. And we continue to be recognized for our ESG leadership, ranked by both Sustainalytics and S&P Global in the top 15% of global oil and gas industry. I think this is leveraging to how the company is viewed, and you'll hear more from all of this later today from Ellen. And now looking at the business. Vol Energy has a high quality diversified asset base in all areas of the NCS. And you can see we have interest in around 50% of all producing assets and the associated infrastructure. And with a large exploration footprint. Only Equinor has a bigger and more diverse portfolio than we do. And we also have a balanced commodity mix with gas being around one third of our production volumes, making us one of the largest gas exporters from Norway. And we've stepped up the pace to maximize the value from our portfolio. With our major projects completed, the outlook for the company is de-risked. And what is ahead of us is a series of low-risk, high-value, predictable tieback projects with short time to market. We will invest more to deliver higher production for longer from our material resource base, which is opportunity rich. And we continue to incrementally improve the outlook for the company, making it better and better. And we're increasing resilience and flexibility, which is important for navigating this period of lower prices. And we're investing in high return projects, delivering higher value creation and ensuring long term attractive dividends. So this is how we will deliver more value for longer. So now let us look at the highlights for 2025. I'm pleased to report to you that strong results for 2025, having delivered transformational growth in the year. We delivered record high production in the fourth quarter of 397,000 barrels oil equivalent per day. and 332,000 barrels per day for the year. Our major projects, Johan Casberg and Boulder X, were completed on schedule. And in total, nine new growth projects started up during the year as planned, adding around 180,000 barrels per day at peak. And we're making good progress unlocking the future value of our portfolio. You can see we sanctioned 10 high-value projects in 2025, These are developing around 160 million barrels of net reserves, with average break-even price of $30 per barrel. And we continue to create value from exploration, with six commercial successes in the year. And we're already turning this into value. And bringing this together, we increase reserves, with two pre-reserve replacements of 185%. And we delivered strong financial performance last year, with cash flow from operations post-tax of $4.6 billion for the full year. Production costs for the year were at $11.1 per barrel, at the lower end of our guidance range. And for the fourth quarter, we reduced further to $10 per barrel, as we had guided. And we have strong available liquidity of $3.5 billion. And we maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet. And lastly, we continue to provide attractive dividends. We will pay a dividend of $300 million for the fourth quarter of last year. This will be distributed in February. This means total 2025 dividend payout is $1.2 billion, which is 26% of CFFO post-tax. So in summary, we deliver strong results in 2025 in line with expectations. And now looking forward to 2026. And we're set for record production levels. With 2026 production expected in the range of 390 to 410,000 barrels per day, in line with how we've previously guided. And you'll see we're accelerating the pace of new growth opportunities that will support higher production for longer. We have 13 projects in execution. These are developing 210 million barrels of net reserves with low operating costs and break-evens on average around $30 a barrel. And we expect to sanction up to eight new projects this year, targeting around 140 million barrels of net reserves. And we're continuing to drill out our exciting exploration portfolio with 12 wells planned, targeting approximately 75 million barrels of net risk resources. And we continue to drive efficiency, delivering incremental improvements across the whole value chain. And you'll see many examples of this today. 2026 production costs will be around $10 per barrel, and we aim to sustain at this level long term. And we continue to reduce emissions with the long term aim to be carbon neutral in our operations by 2030. And the key focus of management is to deliver long term attractive dividends to our shareholders, as our track record demonstrates. We're seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world. And this can lead to a lower for longer price scenario. And so we will take a prudent approach, guiding dividends on a quarterly basis. And we continue the attractive dividend level and provide guidance for the first quarter of 2026 of $300 million. This is the same run rate as we had for 2025. And for the full year 2026, we will continue guiding on a quarterly basis in line with our long-term dividend policy of 25% to 30% of CFFO after tax over the cycles. And now let us look at how we will deliver higher production and value for longer. And VoEnergy has an amazing portfolio with lots of optionality and growth opportunities. I think you will see that. We have a track record of continually growing reserves and resources organically. And you can see here that our 2P reserves stand at 1.3 billion barrels. This underpins our current production levels. But as a company, we are much, much more than that. We have 2C contingent resources of around 900 million barrels. These resources are undeveloped. And we're moving forward around 30 early phase projects to develop around two-thirds of these volumes. And we also have an exciting exploration portfolio of about a billion barrels of net risk resources. So when you put this together, we have around 3 billion barrels of resource potential, with around 1.7 billion barrels, or 60%, yet to be developed. Delivering this opportunity is how we will deliver higher production for longer. And as I said earlier, Vore Energy has delivered transformational production growth in 2025. And you can see we doubled production from just two years ago. And in 2026, we expect to produce between 390 and 410,000 barrels per day. During the year, we will bring online a material program of infill wells and some new project startups that will keep production at current levels beyond the end of this year. And long term, we're targeting over 400,000 barrels per day, a step up from the 350 to 400,000 barrels per day towards 2030 that we guided at last year's CMU. And these are the levers that will drive higher production for longer. Firstly, it's through maximising recovery from our high-quality producing assets. we see a continuous infill drilling program developing net resources of more than 300 million barrels over time. And these are the best barrels we can develop, with break-evens of well less than $30 per barrel. And secondly, as I've mentioned already, we have 13 high-value projects in execution, developing net 2P reserves of 210 million barrels. And this portfolio has average break-evens of around $30 a barrel. And thirdly, we're progressing around 30 early phase projects. These are all tieback developments with short time to market, targeting net resources of 550 million barrels. This portfolio will create material value with average break-evens of less than $35 a barrel, and our aim is to do better than that. And finally, we're unlocking more value with our focused exploration program. And we have a strong track record of creating value from our exploration, as you'll see later. And we plan to drill 50 to 60 wells over the next five years. This program is targeting net risk resources of around 500 million barrels. And when you put all this together, we're progressing activity to create value from around 70% or 1.2 billion barrels of the 1.7 billion barrels undeveloped upside in our portfolio. So we're after and developing a material part of the upside opportunity. And development of this portfolio of high value, low risk, short cycle projects will increase returns from our business. with return on capital employed projected to increase from the current level of around 20%, so up to 25% to 30% by 2030. This adds significant value, and Carlo will come back to this later. And additionally, we continue to take an opportunistic approach to further M&A, where there is a strategic fit and we can create value. It is top of mind to seek the next step change in the company's outlook. We're also targeting to optimize our portfolio, where we have some high working interests and can reduce our capital requirements for new growth projects. What we have in mind will have limited short-term production impact, and we will move this process forward during the first half of the year. And this program delivers higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 barrels per day long-term. It's driven by material long life resource base, which, as you can see, is opportunity rich. And we will invest more over a longer time horizon into a series of high value, low risk short cycle projects. And we are using this lower price environment to improve the economic resilience of our investments. And importantly, we have the people, the equipment and contracts in place to deliver this improved outlook for the company. Now, Vought Energy's high quality business provides a strong foundation to deliver attractive long term value to shareholders. As outlined, we will deliver higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 barrels per day long term. And our high margin barrels means that the business is free cash flow neutral at around $40 per barrel over the period 2026 to 2032. This means that above $40, we generate cash to pay dividends or to pay down debt. And we're covering all of our costs. And this means we generate strong fee cash flow in the range of $5 to $10 billion over the same period. And we have a strong investment grade balance sheet and a lot of flexibility with 60% of our capital uncommitted. We can manage through the lower commodity price cycles with a lot of flexibility. And this combines to allow us to pay attractive dividends within our long-term dividend policy of 25% to 30% of cash flow from operations post-tax over the cycles. And this is the key focus of management to maintain long-term attractive shareholder returns. And we have a resilient and flexible business that will allow us to navigate this lower price environment. And to summarize, I want to leave you with the following messages. First of all, Vore Energy is a stronger de-risk company positioned to generate more value for longer. Our material resource base of around 3 billion barrels is the foundation for this. And we have increased the outlook with higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 barrels per day long term. And we're opportunity rich. We're increasing investments in a series of high value, low risk short cycle projects that will increase returns. This adds significant value. And we continue to incrementally improve the business for increased resilience and flexibility with a low free cash flow break even of around $40 a barrel. And we'll generate more value for longer, supporting long-term attractive returns in line with our dividend policy of 25% to 30% of CFFO post-tax over the cycles. I think these are the reasons to be invested in Vore Energy. And with that, I'm going to hand over to my colleagues who will provide further details on how we will deliver this exciting outlook for the company, with first up being Torga. But before Torga comes to the stage, please enjoy this film on the further development of the Boulder area. Thank you very much.

speaker
CFFO

At the heart of the North Sea lies the Balder area, a key production hub for decades. Revitalized and turned into an engine for long-term value creation with the refurbished and modern Newton FPSO back at the field, delivering at full capacity for longer and extending its lifetime. By leveraging new technology and existing infrastructure, the next wave of project developments are already progressing towards startup, with low break-even, execution time at pace, and short payback time. Our ambition is to unlock more than 300 million barrels of gross resource potential in the area. With Baldar Phase 6 coming on stream at the end of this year, just 18 months after sanction, the Jotun debot legging will follow shortly, with startup only one year after sanctioning, also targeting end 2026. This being the first of several projects planned as part of the Baldar Next development.

speaker
Jotun

Through Balder Next, we optimize and restructure the field by decommissioning of the old Balder FPU to reduce operating costs and carbon emissions. We increase capacity on the Jotunn FBSO, establish new subsea infrastructure and drill new wells in the area. Artificial intelligence combined with the latest high-resolution seismic help us identify drilling targets faster, better and cheaper. We apply the subsea factory approach with standardized designs, enabling quicker installation, improved well placement and reduced drilling time. By actively deploying multilateral well technology, we maximize the meters in the reservoir and optimize the number of infill wells to increase recovery and reduce the development cost on a gross resource potential of up to 70 million barrels. It is one of our key elements to sustain high production for longer, creating value by adding low cost, highly profitable production towards 2045 and beyond.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Good afternoon, all. It's really good to be here. And what a fantastic movie. These kind of movies always gives me goosebumps, and it makes me really proud of the industry and my colleagues. Also here you see a fantastic photo. Johan Casberg at location. The Cathedral of the Barents Sea, as the energy minister, Terry Olsson, likes to call it. On this slide, you see my main topics for today. 2025 was a really good year, and VoE has never been in a better position. We have delivered transformational growth, doubling production since 2023, And based on our growing resource base, we are becoming opportunity rich. Essentially moving from two mega projects to a large portfolio of high value subsidy tieback projects. Through continuous improvement and enhanced capabilities, we are improving all parts of our business. This by improving our ways of working and developing better solutions. The bottom line here is that we have the basis to deliver more than 400,000 barrels per day long-term, creating more value for longer, becoming bigger and better. 2025, transformational growth delivered. We reached the milestone of above 400,000 barrels per day in August. And... we met the full year production guidance of 332,000 barrels. During Q3 and Q4, we saw a record production level for the company. And all projects promised during last capital market update were bought on stream during the year. Also, our operated assets performed very well. And with maintenance included, ending on 92% production efficiency. A really strong number. So let's have a look on the key elements to this transformational growth. Jotunn and Johan Kastberg. Here you see Jotunn at location. I think this is the clearest symbol you can have of our de-risked war energy. The battlefield with Jotun is really ticking all the boxes. Transformational growth, opportunity-rich, and continuously improving. So you might ask, how is Jotun doing? I'm happy to say it's very well. Producing as expected, being around 80,000 barrels gross per day, And we have a plan to keep feeding Jotun for the long term. Balder Phase 5 was sanctioned and had first oil in December 2025. Balder Phase 6 will be brought online Q4 this year. And the next phases for the balder field and Jotun constitutes of three main elements. named balder next the first one is utune debottlenecking it is already sanctioned that happened late last year and this is to increase the production capacity which will accelerate production and then enable for the next step being the removal of the balder fbu to reduce opex and emissions which is planned to happen in 2028. the third step is to drill more wells, new wells in the area, which is planned to be sanctioned this year, 2026. And this is to increase the recovery and feed the Jotun FBSO. So that means that Jotun is a modern hub for the future, expected to produce to 2050. Then we are moving north to Johan Kastberg. As you know, it started up Q1 2025, and it reached plateau in June 2025. Also, Johan Casberg FBSO is currently producing stable and as expected, with a really robust well potential. Today, 32 wells are completed, and the remaining 8 wells will be concluded within the beginning of 2026. And together with Equinor, we target to maintain part 2 production at Johan Casberg beyond 2030. This through infill, program, new tieback developments and further exploration. In 2025, we sanctioned the increased oil recovery wells and the ISRAC subsea tieback. And there is more to come for Johan Kasperg. The Snøfjord skavl subsea tieback might be sanctioned already by end of this year. So that means, summarized, Johan Kasperg has a large area of prospectivity, estimated to have around 1 billion barrels, meaning production for decades to come. With Jotunn and Johan Casberg at location and producing as expected, this gives us a fantastic de-risked foundation for our 2026 production. Around 30% of current production are coming from Jotunn and Johan Casberg. 2026 is really set up to deliver record high production. We saw a production average of January of 416,000 barrels per day. And in February so far, it's 423,000 barrels. Actually, we saw a company record 23rd of January this year, a production of 443,000 barrels per day. You might ask, what is the potential? I will say that the potential in a perfect production day is around 450,000 barrels. This year, we are going to have less new projects starting up, four in total, and that is, of course, a lot less compared to 2025. And these four projects are contributing with an average of 15,000 barrels net production. the next two years. Also, we have a significant infill program, which I will return to later in my presentation. And then you see a smaller dip in Q2, Q3. This is the turnaround and planned maintenance season. And this year, that will have a limited impact on the full year production. Here we're talking about 9,000 barrels per day in average. This means that we have a de-risked outlook for 2026, and that constitutes a production guidance for the year of 390,000 to 410,000 barrels. Of all the slides today I'm going to present, I think this one is my favorite, and you will soon hear why. Because war energy is oil and gas, and what it makes for a living is our resources and reserves. While it's producing more than ever in 2025, We exit the year with a bigger bank account than we entered the year. 2,200 million barrels of reserves and resources. I get dry in my mouth. Fantastic. This is a very strong replacement. That represents a very strong replacement performance in 2025. Just listen. Reserve replacement ratio of 185%. Resource replacement of 136%. This means that for each barrel produced, we move 1.85 barrels into our reserve base. And result? That means that we have a resource pool that will sustain the production for 70 years based on the 2025 production level. And of course, this is not including any exploration success going forward. So that means it's not very likely. So, not only does the company have an impressive resource base, but also it's well distributed across our hubs. And this means that we are adding resilience and flexibility. All hubs have a very solid 2P base, which based on the 2025 production levels will ensure production for the next 10 years. But also, you see that we have a large portfolio of 2C volumes that are currently being matured, meaning that we are opportunity rich. And all hubs have increased their combined 2P and 2C resources since last capital market update one year ago. And this really makes it possible for us to target a production in the range 90 to 110,000 barrels per hub. And combined, this gives us above 400,000 barrels per day long-term. But a huge number of resources is not enough. You also need to have the right assets. And ours are future-fit, high-performing assets, really recognized by low cost and low emissions and high uptime. Several of our assets are electrified, and also all our assets, which is important, have ongoing early phase projects that will ensure production and continued value creation for decades. We here see an average lifetime to 2050 and beyond. And in addition, through our large, high-quality portfolio, Boer Energy holds equity in around 50% of all the Norwegian continental shelf's fields, which ensure tie-back opportunities and close collaboration in strong partnerships. We are, as Nick also said, improving the company. You see it through exploration over projects, drilling and well, subsurface, and operations. But status quo is not an option. So we have set new ambitious long-term targets for our core business, enabled by value-driven technology implementation and the use of artificial intelligence. Why? It is really about finding more, improving recovery, better developments, and running our operations safe and efficient through improved ways of working and our solutions. Really enabling more value with less. This has already yielded a lot of value creation. Example given is the Balder area. By combining this through the subsurface, drilling and well, and project development, we have doubled the recovery reserves for the ongoing projects, Balder Phase 5 and Balder 6. Really, as you heard on the film from Guru, she talked about combining artificial intelligence and seismic. What did she say? We are doing things faster, better, and cheaper. That means more recovery, higher value. So really, the result here is unlocking value we earlier did not believe was possible. So to conclude, our ambition is clear. It is to become the best in running our core business, driven by forceful implementation of technology and artificial intelligence. We have seen improved results regarding our operated cost basis. We have talked about it and we have reported and we have achieved. And we got to 10 US dollar per barrel for Q4 2025. We have reduced the unit operating cost by 30% during the last three years. And we will maintain around 10 US dollar per barrel for the long term. And actually, since the last capital market update, one year ago, we have incorporated 400 million US dollar net of cost reductions for the period 2026 to 2030. And we are targeting further reductions in the years to come. The driver for this? High production for longer, 2032 and beyond. Subsea tiebacks, which is really utilizing existing infrastructure. That means margin incremental cost and low emissions. Further, we are working relentlessly to improve our operational model. Driving down cost, optimizing production and improving the production efficiency. And we are working hard to create a colonial scale through collaboration with our partners, particularly here at Equinor, when it comes to logistics, infrastructure, and assets. That means bases, rigs, helicopters, and supply bases. We have done this in the Ballard area. We are doing it in the Barnes area. And we're going to continue to do this. Then you might think, okay, so what is the theme of the story so far, Torger? If I'm going to summarize it in one word, competitiveness. And when it comes to our case, for Vår Energi, it means improved competitiveness. This gives more opportunities for value creation and higher activity. And I think you will see this very clear when we are coming to our infill program and our product portfolio. Let's start with our infill wells. Nick also talked to us and said, this is the most effective and profitable barrels to be had. And we will participate in a large number every year between now and 2032, targeting 30 to 40 wells a year. And this year, we will be building up the production with an end-year contribution of around 40,000 barrels. What you will recognize in the infill wells is that they have a very strong economy, less than 30, a lot less for some, and a payback time less than one year. So I hope you think the same as me. This is really the perfect match for our energy with a high-quality portfolio. Big fields are getting bigger. It is good resource management and really high-value creation. Then, our high-value projects in execution. We have 13 projects in execution, representing 210 million barrels of reserves. Last year, we had nine startups and 10 projects sanctioned. This really proves our ability to replenish the portfolio with new production. And here we have a value-driven approach. We are working very closely and hard with our suppliers to find the best solutions for value creation. And this results in highly competitive portfolio with a break-even of around $30 per barrel and $3 per barrel in average unit operational cost. And for those that remember as well, that means that we have improved this since last CMU. really through our maturation phase, making better solutions, finding more value in our projects. Then to our large early phase portfolio. I have done quite a few projects in my life. But when I look at this slide and these projects, I have to say, what a portfolio. It is opportunity rich. It's high value. It's flexible. It's de-risked, and it is really ensuring high production for longer. Last year, we had 25 projects in the early phase, addressing 500 million barrels. And even though 10% of a sanction in 2025, we still have around 30 projects. Targeting now 550 million barrels net to develop. That really means that we have been stepping up and growing our early phase portfolio. These are high return projects with a break even of around $35. So that means that we have been growing our portfolio by maintaining attractive returns. And here we can ensure you all, we are going to stay disciplined, ensuring sanctioning high quality projects. And this year, we are targeting up to eight sanctions. So, I know I'm coming to a really important site, so now you have to keep your attention. Because the message here is that we are going to produce more for longer. The reason for this is that we have an improved outlook of our business. Today's production forecast for 2030 is 40% higher than the outlook that we presented to you in 2023. And actually, it's more than 20% higher than we presented for the capital market update last year. The recipe, we are improving the recovery, continuous focus on maturing and drilling in field wells. As you have seen, we have a big project portfolio proving our ability to mature and accelerate new opportunities, which I would like to summarize in two words, opportunity rich. And very soon you will hear Oddgeir explain more about this. And of course, we also have a consistent exploration success. And Luca will address this a bit later today. M&A, as you heard Nick say, it is really part of the DNA in raw energy. There would have been no raw energy without it, but it must be value accretive. And we have been good at it. The value accretive part, I mean, realizing a lot of value, both based on the Neptune acquisition and more recently, the Ecofisk PPF. Ecofisk produced fields, produced field, that means. So then I'm coming to my last slide. And to conclude, our value proposition is clear. Transformational growth has been delivered and we are targeting above 400,000 barrels long term. That means higher for longer. We are de-risked and opportunity rich based on a significant reserve and resource basis of 2,200 million barrels. more than 40 projects under development, our large infill program, and really an exciting exploration portfolio. And we will continue improving our capability with the ambition to be best. We are getting bigger and better. So with that, thanks a lot for your attention. And then I will get over to you, but first, there's a film. Thank you so much.

speaker
Nick

The Barents Sea, an area with considerable upside potential. With ownership in all producing assets and a significant resource base, we have built a foundation for future development and value creation. At the Goliath field, the Barents Sea's first oil producer, our fully electrified and advanced FBSO is set to realize its full potential as a key hub, extending the Goliath's fields lifetime and unlocking value from near field discoveries. To secure the future of Goliath beyond 2045, we are focusing on maximizing the recovery with continuous infill drilling on Goliath, combined with developing the Goliath gas export and Goliath ridge projects, taking the total gross potential to around 400 million barrels.

speaker
Goliath

Our exploration and subsurface teams are working at pace, integrating the results of the appraiser wells campaign, including good production results from the Segato well test and the newly acquired high resolution seismic data to unlock the full potential of the ridge. Collaborating in a virtual environment, we integrate real-time data and advanced modeling to streamline planning and execution, reducing complexity and cost, accelerating decisions, significantly shortening the time from discovery to production. Through the combination of standardization and application of new solutions and technology, we take full advantage of our subsea factory approach. improving the solutions and the value creation. We are targeting first oil from the Gulag Ridge in 2029.

speaker
Oddgar Dalarna
Head of Projects

So 2025 was a transformational year for our energy. We delivered nine out of nine planned project startups, including the two major projects, Johan Kastberg and Jotun F. Piso. These two projects have constituted 60% of the total project portfolio the last year. There have been complex and long-duration greenfield and refurbishment projects. Now that they are completed, they will serve as important hubs for future value creation. Our projects have transitioned together with the company, and our current and future portfolio will be close to 100% focused on subsidy tiebacks, with low break-evens, higher flexibility, short paybacks, and fast execution with lower risk. To ensure success from initiation to startup, a key focus area has been to ensure we implement a project factory way of working. We have, while delivering the startup, built capability and capacity for the subsea project factory. And we have put all the building blocks in place. With a portfolio approach of around 30 early phase projects, we have flexibility to choose the most attractive projects first and improve and arrange the rest before moving into execution. It is a disciplined approach to ensure robustness in our portfolio. And then through simplification, standardization and varying parallel activities, we capture economy of scale and enable faster development and execution of our project portfolio. Our strategic partnership ensure early engagement and provide us competence and capacity at the right time. And enabled by these points, we can also pre-commit long lead items. And we, in fact, see this as de-risking the portfolio. And I will come back with tangible examples from our projects. Altogether, this changes the way we work and improve the solutions. This is the factory project way of working, and it will enable us to get higher production for longer and create more value. So let me first start with the portfolio. We have demonstrated our ability to mature and develop our resources through the later years. The project portfolio has grown significantly over time, doubling number of early phase projects, including volumes, from 2023 to today. This while we delivered 10 project sanctions in 25, outperforming the target of eight and moving 160 million barrels into execution. Which means combined with the projects in execution, we now have more than 40 projects in the portfolio. And our projects, they are evenly distributed, both in time and across all the hubs. And it is a strong and healthy funnel. We have been able to pull project startup closer in time, combined with increasing the activity. So the majority of the project is starting up before 2030. The entrepreneurial culture and proactive mindset, then supported by continued commitment from the company, it has really enabled us to step up the pace and deliver faster than also for the future opportunities to refill the portfolio. A prime example of our project factory is the Baldor Phase 6 project. It is a project reshaped from a rather complex solution with several wells to a first-off-for-vore energy, a trilateral well, which means it's a single top hole with three branches into the reservoir with a very slim and efficient subsea production system. And this is true value creation and the entire team solving for totality. We started the project two years back, and among others, due to pre-commitments, we will achieve first oil in Q4, only 18 months after sanctioning. The project will deliver around 17 million barrels and has excellent economics with payback in less than one year. The factory approach enables learning from this project to be replicated across the portfolio, making us always searching for improvements to optimize value. And this brings me into the Balder Next project. It is a true kinder egg, three in one, where we continue to develop Balder area through three parts. First... We are increasing the topside processing capacity to accelerate and take on more volumes on Jotunn FPZO via the Jotunn deep bottlenecking project. It was sanctioned in 25, it is in full execution, and it will achieve startup this year in 26. Second, we will unlock around 75 million barrels through Balda Next New Wells, contributing to maintain 70,000-80,000 barrels per day towards 2030. And third, we reduce OPEX by $130 million annually and remove 70,000 tons of CO2 emissions through the Baldar FPU decommissioning, where the Baldar FPU production volumes are maintained through sidetracks from the new wells. This shows the deliverables obtained by the subsea project factory. The pace and value creation is supported by way of working and enabled by pre-commitments. Balder Next was initiated last year, beginning of 2025. We will deliver first part in 2026, first oil from new wells in 2027 and take Balder a few to shore in 2028. Baldar next will further position Jotun as one of our core assets ready for the future. This is only the first of many similar early phase projects that will feed the Jotun FBSO with volumes towards 2030 and beyond. With the Goliath Rich discovery, a new phase for value creation has begun with an ambition to sanction more than double what Goliath has produced since startup 10 years ago. The Goliath Gas Project, ready to be sanctioned in 26, will provide a gas export solution for Goliath, prolonging lifetime towards 2050 and increasing oil production by optimizing reservoir management. It reduces unit OPEX and paves the way for further projects to increase production over Goliath, with the first being the Goliath Rich project. Together with Goliath Gas, the Goliath Ridge project has the potential to secure more than 300 million barrels of production in the years to come. The Goliath Ridge is what you may call in the backyard, and with discoveries of hydrocarbons in all wells drilled. The extensive appraisal and data acquisition on the Goliath Ridge has proven the potential and the project team is aiming towards startup in 29, utilizing available capacity in the high-performing Goliath platform. As Luca will cover later, it doesn't stop with these two projects. The Goliath Ridge discovery has unlocked further prospectivity around Goliath that will be matured fast. And we will continue the active infill program in the years to come, building on the previous year's successful volume additions. And then we have JÖA, a revision asset in the North Sea. It's also situated in a very prolific area with four discoveries in recent years. These are now combined into one project to maximize synergies and enhance the value. We anticipate to sanction the project this year and achieve first oil in 27 for Sarissa and 28 for the rest. Meaning less than two years between sanctioning and production startup. In addition to your subsea projects, Vår Energi will build the first infowell since field startup this year. And we are here also looking for more. And Luka will come back to our exploration plans with a number of wells already this year. So let me summarize in four points. Our energy is opportunity rich. We took 10 sanctions last year, expect up to eight this year. We keep growing the early phase portfolio, now containing around 30 projects with more than half a billion barrels of contingent resources. The project have strong economics, low break-evens, and with an ambition to improve. With the size of our portfolio, we have the flexibility and optionality in terms of speed and also prioritizing high value creation. And the subsidy projects provide a fast execution with lower risk, and it will enable value to create more value for longer. The subsidy project factory way. Thank you for your attention, and I will hand the word over to Luca.

speaker
Luca Dragonetti
Head of Exploration

Thank you, Olga, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It's a great pleasure to be back on stage and talk about exploration and the future of the company. But it's even more impressive to feel lagging behind because you just introduced names of projects that are already delivering in your pipeline that last year were still in my to-do list. So this is how fast we can go. This is literally delivering seamlessly in Invor Energy. So it's something that we are experiencing all together, transforming the company and of course, transforming it in the NCS. The NCS remains the excellent playground with a lot of undiscovered resources. We can put numbers, but these are the ones that are widely known. And we believe we are in an excellent position to take advantage of it from an industrial point of view, of course. We have a portfolio of prospects that is hovering around 200. We believe they are distributed, well distributed and harmonized in a portfolio that includes... infrastructure-led, so near-field opportunities, as well as high impact. The number, of course, of appraisals depends a little bit on the results of the discoveries, on the results of where they are, how they are. So it fluctuates a bit, but the share 80-20 remains representative definitely for our type of activity in terms of drilling. All this contains roughly... a billion barrels of oil equivalent net resources, which is a substantial and material basket from which to draw. And 60% of it is oil, or at least estimated at the moment. The portfolio is a very nice thing to have. We have it and we draw from it using creativity and data. We use expertise and, of course, integration of our technology, passion. All these elements are part of the recipe that take us to take the commitment and drill the ultimate wells. Selectiveness. We need to select... We needed to be disciplined. All this has been recorded in the last four or five years. We are looking at track record in between 21 and 25. That shows how we added 280 million barrels of oil equivalent in terms of resources. Well, let's have a look. We were talking about how fast we can be in bringing them online, and this is exactly what we were talking about. 70% of it is either producing, therefore produced, or in their way to be produced. Success rate speaks for itself. It's substantially higher than the average. And we managed to keep the costs down with a post-tax around $1 per barrel. It's, I would say, a very good introduction. But then what do we do? Well, in 2025, we had a very intense, in terms of activity year, We will see later. I will get back to it. Anyway, Edgar already mentioned how much it has been done on the Goliath Ridge. It is important to remember that the ridge is not the only place in which we had discoveries. We made six discoveries, and at least two of them account for a substantial additional potential, and you see them recorded on the map. 300 million barrels between the Goliath Ridge and the Fitzsinn Ridge as additional and follow-up. It's substantial. The number of barrels that we added simply last year are in the range of 45 to 75 million net. And, of course, not only the long term, but also results in terms of immediate cash flow have been recorded with smorgasbord. I'm sorry, my pronunciation. This is one of those that I can't pronounce at all. I'm sorry. But it's still it. still represents a landmark because we literally were on target during Q2 and in Q3 we started production. This means that we had 16,000 gross, 16,000 barrels per day produced throughout the year, an incredibly short payout time. It's what we are looking forward to. We need long-term or mid-term because 2029 is just around the corner and we will see the production from the Goliath Ridge. So let's say mid to long-term to sustain our production, but also we need immediate results, cash, and we have the portfolio to do so. The portfolio, of course, needs to be fed, and we have the results of the APA round with 14 new licenses. We mentioned Vizin. And Witzin was part of a very, very long story. It's how we managed to integrate legacy exploration with, of course, expertise, subsurface capacities, and integration. Imagine the first discovery. or at least a well was drilled some 30 years ago. So we were in the previous century with different technologies and results remained doubtful, to say the least. So we've been capable of going back, study the data, reintegrate the data with new technologies, new capacities, new seismic imaging. We decided that that was the way to go and look at the result. We unlocked the potential of a full ridge and we opened up for more opportunities where... absolutely close to one of our core area the fenia platform where of course we can i would say easily nothing is easy of course but we can have a a subsea tie back which means of course many advantages in terms of operations but monetization that is much better and simplified It's not enough. That's not enough. A new reprocessed seismic has been delivered just a few weeks ago. We are reworking again the whole area and we will add more opportunities. And the activity follows up. A well is already in our drilling string for 2026, and we are planning to add more in order, of course, to improve the discoveries. It's what I, I mean, I'm Italian, so it could be easy to make recipe. And this time I'll go botanic. And it's more like a garden. This is another very, very, very nice garden that has been mentioned earlier on. It's the Yoa area. And, okay, there is no weed because nothing grows by itself. We need to make it grow. So how do we make it grow? Well, we use our capacities. We use our creativeness. We use our technology. And we leverage on all the discoveries that we made, all the wells that we drilled, all the data that we gathered. Everything is put together, blended into something that is called exploration, because we need to see beyond. And we need, of course, to be capable of producing the results that have been recorded in the area in the last few years with multiple discoveries like Syriza, Yoa, Ophelia, Yoa North. Follow-up, because now there are more things that we can see because there is better and improved seismic and additional technology, and we can go further. This is what we will try this year with two wells already in our plan, Annabelle and Sava. And the idea is to continue. You see a lot of blobs there. Of course, the light blue ones are the prospects, the ones that are not yet matured. But we expect to bring them all into this stage where we will finally put a well on them. The number itself is impressive. We are talking about more than 200 million barrels recoverable still there for us. So this is the constant gardening activity that we are called upon doing. And where it all comes together, I believe, has been already shown by Olga, and it is the Goliath Ridge. The Goliath Ridge saw intensive activity last year. We drilled three wells. Two of them were appraisals. So this is flexibility, capacity to act. to have a vision and be ready to drill in case of success. Seismic. Seismic that will and is already delivering great results because we are substituting something that was shot 25 years ago. It has been stretched, and now we are moving into a completely different direction. with the capacity to pinpoint details that were not visible earlier on. Still, on that seismic, on the legacy seismic, we located most of the wells and we made a fantastic discovery in Rodette. That was the one that allowed us to understand the migration path and opened up a story that is not finished yet, We tested at the end of last year the appraisal well with over 4,000 barrels of oil per day from two levels. There are... quite a few other prospects that are following this incredible result of the test because now we know that we can produce from more levels than we expected before. It's unlocking the future, but it's actually extending the life of this fantastic facility. The same we are doing on Ioa, and absolutely the same is happening on Fenia. What is next? Next will be a disciplined and selective approach to high-quality prospects, coming, of course, from the basket that you saw at the beginning, the one billion, that is continuously worked on and rejuvenated. We are looking at 12 wells in 2026 for... a total investment that is expected to stay around $250 and $300 million in 2026. For the coming years, you see that we have in mind to drill 10 to 15 wells per year. We have reduced investment based on our capacity to improve and be more efficient in our selection and in our spending. So all in all, a bright and harmonized approach to a portfolio that is really rich. It's a focused exploration program. It's focused on our capacity to create new ideas. So it's based on our creativity. It's fueled by our technology that is capable of creating transforming our vision in objectives that we can drill next year and in the years to come. Thank you.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Luca. We will now have a short break, so if I can please ask everyone to be back in the room at half past three. We'll have the two last presentations and the Q&A. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Ellen
Head of HSE & ESG

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome back. I am very pleased to be here today and excited to tell you about our deliveries and our progress since last year. As you heard from Nick earlier today, safe and responsible operations are integral part of our strategy and our company values. And we will continue to provide reliable and affordable oil and gas in a safe and responsible way with low emissions and low operating costs. And to deliver this, we have the perfect toolbox. We have a high performing organization. What you've heard from Nick and Targar, Luca and Adger today are the ambitions and the achievements from our entrepreneurial one team culture. This enables us to think differently, embrace new ways of working and to continuously improve. Our strategies and values define who we are and they give us a shared direction as one team. And we believe that a safe, inclusive and responsible workplace is the foundation for the results that we achieve. And this is reflected in low turnover and the strong employee engagement that we continue to see across the organization. Strong partnerships are also key to deliver great results. And by working closely with our strategic suppliers, partners and regulators, we deliver safer and more efficient operations with leading ESG performance. This is the team that will deliver more value for longer. And our ambition is clear. Vår energi will be the safest operator on the Norwegian continental shelf. Because safety is not just a priority, it's a prerequisite for everything we do. It's embedded in our strategy, in our values, and in the personal responsibility that each of us take when we come to work to work safely and responsibly every day. And since becoming a listed company in 2022, we have continued to improve our performance. We see a positive trend in dropped objects and a continued reduction in sick leave. And this is by far industry leading and a third of the Norwegian average. And we believe this is a testimony to our highly motivated colleagues and a thriving working environment. When it comes to incidents with serious potential, we saw positive development from 2022 to 2024. However, 2025 results are not where we want to be, and we are working hard to turn that trend. But let me be clear on the most important thing. In 2025, no one got seriously injured working for Vår Energi. We had no serious process safety events, and we had no serious accidental spills to see. And this is something we value, and it shows that we are moving in the right direction on our journey to become the safest operator. We are convinced that low emissions and low cost will have a competitive advantage. So we continue to decarbonize our operations and to deliver on our ambitions towards early 2030s. When it comes to emission reductions, our plan consists of three main levers. It's electrification, portfolio optimization and energy management. And as for everything we do, we have a value-driven approach, meaning we shall not only achieve emission reductions, but also see benefits from either increased gas sales, higher production efficiency, or reduced operating costs. Portfolio optimization, which includes the retiring of non-core assets such as the Baldra FPU and Staffjord A, will contribute significantly in reducing emissions of over 100,000 net tons annually and, of course, improve our operating costs. Through energy management, we target to materialize approximately 10% of our emission reductions towards 2030. As an example, in 2025, we managed to reduce emissions on our operated assets by around 30,000 tons. And this is a good example of that entrepreneurial mindset, finding new ways to save energy that in turn reduces emissions and cost. And the emissions we can't reduce, we will offset. We will do it with nature-based quality carbon credits, which is key to deliver on our ambition to become carbon neutral in our operational emissions in 2030. In addition, we are using certified renewable electricity for the equity share of our operated assets. And carbon credits from reforestation projects here in Norway to offset emissions in our value chain, own emissions in the value chain. And we continue to develop future solutions. We are progressing on our project on developing blue carbon credits through kelp restoration here in Norway. And we are leveraging a core E&P competence. And together with licensed partners and European emitters, we are progressing on CCS. However, the market is developing with a slow pace and with an immature value chain and regulation. And therefore, we are maintaining a disciplined and value-driven approach in developing CCS and raw energy. And lastly, once again, we proudly received the badge ESG top rated in the industry from Sustainalytics. At Vår Energi, we have a clear and credible path forward. We are on track to reduce emissions by around 35% from today towards early 2030s. Currently in our portfolio, Goliath, Jøa, Armelange, Frams, Norre and Sleipner are already fully or partially electrified. Future reductions will be delivered through the already sanctioned electrification of Njad and Snøvit, through portfolio optimizations that I talked about, and combined these steps materialize our emissions while strengthening the long-term resilience of our portfolio. At the same time, we are bringing more of our future production into electrified hubs. And this means we're not only reducing emissions, we also sustain production volumes in a responsible way. By doing this, we expect that around 40% of our production will be electrified in the early 2030s. And more than half of our new projects will be tied back to already electrified assets. As I'm rounding off, I think this picture highlights why Vår Energi is well positioned for the future. Combining low cost with low emissions and an industry that is strongly aligned to continue to drive down emissions. And this is yet an example of Vår Energi's commitment to long-term value creation. Vår Energi is already performing at top quarter level. In 2025, our CO2 emissions intensity was nine and a half kilos per barrel, placing us in the top 15% of the global oil and gas producer and with a trajectory of further reductions going forward. Our methane intensity is near zero, significantly better than the global average and among the very best in the industry. And I'm also proud to say that our efforts have been recognized. We recently received the gold standard pathway certification from the oil and gas methane partnership, confirming both the credibility of our reporting and the strength of our plans to continue minimizing methane emissions going forward. So to conclude. Our strategy remains consistent and clear, and our ambition to be the safest operator to deliver responsibly with low emission, low cost, and leading ESG performance remains. By fostering a high-performing organization with an entrepreneurial mindset, we continue to create value for longer. And with that, I say thank you for the attention, and please now let me pass the floor to our CFO, Carlo.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thank you, Ellen, and good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. I would like to start by recapping 2025, a year characterized by transformational growth. The company has delivered a record high production, substantially above 100% reserves reprimand ratio, and a strong financial performance. A few highlights for the year. We generated $4.6 billion of cash flow from operation after tax, a 35% increase from 2024, despite a lower price environment. We have delivered on our promises to reduce operating costs down to $10 in Q4, with a 25% reduction year-on-year. We continue to have a strong financial position. The leverage ratio is stable year-over-year and down from Q3 level as anticipated. we successfully refinanced the company last year at reduced cost. And as a result, we have high available liquidity at $3.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion at the end of last year. We continue to deliver attractive returns to our shareholder, distributing a total of $1.2 billion for 2025. For 2026, we continue with a quarterly dividend level of $300 million for Q1 to be paid in June. Our long-term dividend policy of 25-30% of CFF after tax over the cycle remains intact. We achieved robust realized prices in 2025. We generated nearly $2.2 billion in revenues on Q4 and around $8 billion for the year. Despite lower prices, this is 8% up compared to the previous year on the back of higher production. For the full year, the average realized price is $69 per BOE, and this represents a 6% premium to spot, adding one more year of additional revenues above market tab to our track record. Looking at the four quarter, we realized price for oil was $63 per BOE, and the same was for gas, which represents $4 above the spot reference price. Looking forward, we have locked in 14% of our gas volumes till September at around $75 per BOE, and we continue to have a robust gas sales strategy with access to several markets. We are retaining the flexibility in the contracts to decide the split between month ahead, day ahead, and fixed price. We have a balanced commodity mix and a strong gas position, being one of the largest exporters of gas from Norway to Europe. Around 30% of our 2025 production is gas, and most of this is pepped gas to Europe. 70% of these volumes are sold under long-term off-take agreements with established and solid industrial customers in Europe. Some of these contracts are running until 2036. Our flexible gas sales strategy continues to heal the results. We can optimize around pricing points in Europe and nominate volumes on various indexes to capture upside. Since our listing in 2022, we have on average beaten the spot price by 11%, and in the past three years we have generated additional revenue above spot pricing of 1.4 billion dollars. We enter 2026 with a solid liquidity and financial position, with a healthy cash balance of 700 million dollars and a total available liquidity of 3.5 billion dollars. We have a diversified, long-term capital structure with an average debt maturity of around five years, which aligns with the strategic needs of the business. Looking at the development of our cash position from Q3 to Q4, we generated above $1.8 billion before tax and working capital movements, and this is up compared to the previous quarter. Tax payments amounted to $811 million, up compared to the previous quarter, given that we paid three tax installments in Q4. We had a cash outflow of $970 million in investments in our high-value projects and for the purchase of interest in Ecofix PPF. Also in November, we distributed a splendid $300 million in dividends related to our Q3 2025 results. Our value-driven capital allocation framework remains unchanged, with focus on high-value investments to support higher production. returning attractive dividends to our shareholder, and assuring resilience through the cycle. We are set for delivering higher production for longer. We have more growth opportunities, and we keep a disciplined capex policy, with an average portfolio break-even below $35 per barrel for the new projects. We are committed to maintain an investment-grade balance sheet and a robust credit profile, while paying dividends according to our guidance. Additional free cash flow will be used for extra shareholder distribution and leveraging. We also have clear criteria for any M&A activity, with a selective and disciplined approach, designed to capture growth opportunities and exploit synergies. The most important thing for us is drive value for our shareholders over time. As you have heard from all my colleagues earlier, we have a strong foundation for delivering long-term value. We are improving our outlook and we will deliver more production for longer, with more than 400,000 barrels per day long-term. And this is a material step up compared to the previous outlook. Through this period, we will deliver high-margin barrels with a free cash flow back even of around $40. High production, short time to market, and lower cost is the perfect combination to deliver a very strong and resilient free cash flow in a range between $5 to $10 billion in the plan, underpinned also by high CapEx flexibility, with around 60% of CapEx towards 2032 uncommitted. And all of this with an investment-grade balance sheet. We remain committed to attractive and predictable shareholder returns. predicated on strong profits and free cash flow generation we maintain the long-term dividend policy of distributing 25 to 30 percent of cffo after tax over the cycle in dividends to our shareholders looking at the next seven years we are very well positioned to continue generate material free cash flow while we continue to invest in high value barrels In the period 2026-2032, we are expecting to generate a cumulative free cash flow in the range of $5 to $10 billion, assuming a brand of plus minus $10 on our reference case, which will be available for shareholder distribution and leveraging. As you can see in the waterfall, these cash flow estimates include uncommitted investments and exploration capex, but exclude the potential future value generation associated with successful exploration discoveries. hence representing an upside. We have significant cash flow resilience and flexibility. As you can see here, we have a robust cash flow generation across various price scenarios and a material dividend capacity going forward. We are free cash flow neutral at just $40 per barrel in the period 2026-2032, including all investments and cost of financing. We also have a high degree of flexibility with regards to cap expanding as we mature our portfolio on new development projects. We have a low leverage ratio and a solid balance sheet. And all this underpins our resilient dividend capacity in the short, medium and longer term, leaving also headroom for the leveraging and strategic flexibility across various price scenarios. We are freeing up resources to be deployed where we generate more value. We are streamlining our exploration program to make it even more focused and value-oriented, optimizing the long-term annual exploration spend down to around $200 million per year from $200 to $300 million per year previously. This represents a reduction of up to $100 million per year. We are also improving our operating expenses compared to our previous forecast, with savings around $400 million over the period of 2026-2030, driven by significant cost reduction across the board. At the same time, we have more investment opportunities in high-value projects, to create more value for longer. We are investing in a high-value portfolio, with strong economics, short time to market and quick payback time. This results in an increase of our long-term production target to more than 400,000 barrels per day in the long term, compared to 350,000 to 400,000 barrels per day in the previous CMU, while investing an average of approximately $2.5 billion per year over the plan, which is within our previous guidance. We are opportunity-rich, and we will continue investing in higher production for longer. we are moving from a highly complex into a less complex, standardized, and short time to market investment phase. This will allow us to develop our reserves and resources in a much faster way, resulting in a significant value creation while maintaining capital and discipline. In 2026, we are expecting development capex in the range of 2.5 to 2.7 billion dollars. This is broadly flat from last year, notwithstanding increased activity in our early phase project portfolio, including Balder Next, and increased ownership in the EcoFish PPF projects. In the period 2027-2032, we are expecting to invest on average around $2.5 billion per year, with high execution activity concentrated in 2027-2028, resulting in slightly higher capex than average during these two years. We continue to be disciplined in selecting what we bring to investment decision, and we maintain our return and break-in requirements for the portfolio. IRR above 25% and break-even below $35 per barrel. One important feature of the operating on the NCS is the fiscal framework. The tax system allows for immediate deduction of capital spending against the special petroleum tax, and this makes it an investment-supportive regime, as you can clearly see in the graph. We have improved our long-term outlook, with higher production for longer and many profitable investment opportunities. But even more important, we are set to incrementally generate more value. The combination of cost discipline, investments in projects with low breakeven, short time to market, and quick payback, together with a supportive tax regime, allow us to sustain long-term returns and significantly increase the return on capital employed towards 2030 and beyond. It's all about value, but it's also about being resilient in a volatile macroenvironment. We have a strong balance sheet with a low leverage ratio and a target of staying below 1.3 times in a debt-over-redux threshold over the cycle. Our leverage ratio currently is 0.8 times, which is well below our threshold, and provides the company with ample financial flexibility. In this slide, we illustrate how our leverage ratio develops across different oil price scenarios. And what we see is that even in extended low-price environments, we remain below our 1.3x threshold, and this is after dividends are paid according to our policy, and while we continue investing in our highly profitable project portfolio. This is another result of the perfect combination of cost discipline, low breakeven, short time to market, quick payback time, and supportive tax regime. We have a BAA3 rating from Moody's and a BBB rating from Sander & Poor, both with a stable outlook. We are committed to maintain this. Vorenergy is a stronger and risk company, investment opportunity rich, with higher production and value creation for longer. We remain committed to deliver long-term attractive dividends to our shareholders, as our trade record demonstrates. We are seeing increased volatility and significant uncertainties in the world, and this can lead to a lower for longer price scenario. But the key focus of the management is to protect the dividends, and we will take thoughtful measures to protect this while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and preserve a strong outlook. We are taking a prudent approach, and for 2026 we will guide the dividend on a quarterly basis. For the first quarter of 2026, we plan to maintain the current dividend level of $300 million, which is the same run rate as for 2025. The dividend is planned to be paid in June and will be based on the distributable equity at year-end and expected Q1 2026 profit generation. And for the full year 2026, we will continue guiding on a quarterly basis, in line with our long-term dividend policy of 25-30% of CFF after-tax over the cycles. we are reconfirming our long-term dividend policy of 25-30% of CFFO after-tax over the cycles. Vorenergy has an impressive track record of delivering value to our shareholders. Since we listed back in February 2022, we have delivered approximately 115% in total shareholder return. And in total, we have returned around 4.4 billion in dividends to our shareholders. Finally, I will summarize our 2026 guidance. Production guidance is 392,400 barrels per day. Production cost will be around $10 per barrel and we aim to sustain this level for the long term. Development capex will be at $2.5 to $2.7 billion. Exploration expenses and abex will be around $250 to $300 million and $200 million respectively. Last but not least, we are maintaining a dividend level of $300 million for Q1 2026, and we are keeping the long-term dividend policy of 25% to 30% of CFF4 post-tax over the cycles. With that, I hand it back to Nick for concluding remarks. Thank you.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you, Carlo. I've just one final slide to wrap up and emphasize our key messages again. I hope you've seen that Vorengi is a stronger de-risk company positioned to generate more value for longer. Our material resource base of around three billion barrels is the foundation for this. As I said earlier, we've increased the outlook with higher production for longer, targeting over 400,000 barrels per day long term. As we've tried to get across today, we're opportunity rich and we're increasing investments in a series of high value, low risk short cycle projects that will increase returns, adding, I think, significant value. And we continue to incrementally improve the business for increased resilience and flexibility with the low free cash flow break even of around $40 per barrel. And we will generate more value for longer, supporting long term attractive returns in line with our dividend policy of 25 to 30 percent of CFO post tax over the cycles. And as I said earlier, I believe these are the reasons to be invested in for energy. And with that, I'm going to hand over to either to lead our Q&A session. Thank you very much.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Nick. Can I invite Torigir and Carlo back to the stage as well? We'll address questions in the room first. And can I please ask you to introduce yourself and keep to a max of two questions per person. And then we'll take the questions from the call afterwards. Can we start with Sasi here in the middle?

speaker
max

Hi, this is Sachikan Chilukuru from Jefferies. I had two questions. The first was regarding the production profile that you've highlighted, slide 34 and 35. You've talked about improving the outlook, of course. Last year you presented production declining to around 350. Now we see growth coming in 28 to 30. You've highlighted a lot of projects, but I just wanted to understand if you were to isolate two or three key projects that we should be looking at that has improved that outlook, that would be interesting. The second one was regarding capital allocation. Especially, I just wanted to understand your thinking between dividends and debt reductions on leverage. Just wondering if you are penciling in any debt reductions at an absolute level between 2026 and 2032. Or otherwise, would you be open to actually increasing your net debt levels as well to support the distributions?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Yeah, I can start on the first. And actually, you know, the message today is that, you know, we have improved all our projects. And really, that means also an improved outlook. And I think, you know, for this year and the project that we have been working a lot and actually accelerating and bringing closer is like Odger talked about, he talked about the Balder Next project. So that one is one that is coming very soon. We have started the sanctioning there. Of course, we talked about the Goliath Ridge and the maturation there, as well as, of course, the UR subsea projects that is also soon to come. And then on top of this is the icing on the cake being the infill program. So everything is being improved. Everything is seeing a better outlook today than it did one year ago. So...

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

And I think also our acquisition of a bigger interest in the PPF is an important aspect. But I think the key thing here is that what we've done is accelerate a number of projects. from what we had a year ago, and we've matured them to accelerate them. And really, it's a lot of things that drive this, not just you can't pick one or two things. It's multiple activities that drive this. And I think when you see the 40-plus projects on the chart, I think you get the sense of that acceleration and the level of activity.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Really being the prime portfolio that makes the answer.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Carlo, do you want to deal with the allocation?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, with the allocation, of course. It's actually a good question. The way we worked out the outlook is basically based on what I was mentioning, accelerating projects and projects at a very quick time to market. So going to your point, we have a leveraged ratio that we're quite comfortable with it. And investing more with a very short time to market is where we continue to reshuffle our capital to create more value and sustain the dividend. while increasing the depth. So we don't want to, of course, increase the leverage. We have flexibility. We are well below our threshold. But we want to have a sustainable business over time. And the kind of portfolio that we have is exactly doing this. So it's addressing investments and very quick time to market to reshuffle capital and get the money back and sustaining the dividend. So within the two things, we really go together. Attractive returns over time and a reasonable and prudent leverage position.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

And if you think about it, if we keep building the resource base and investing into it, we don't need to reduce debt, actually.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

We just need to keep... We can actually generate space for... Again, what is very important in this plan, probably according to some other question, is the quick time we can invest and get the funds back somewhat. This is really a peculiarity of our investment proposition.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Question from Theodore.

speaker
Theodore

Tedor Nilsson, SB1 Markets. Thank you for a detailed presentation, as always. So two questions. Nick, you said that M&A is top on your mind. I just wonder if you could discuss type of assets or any particular asset characteristic areas that you're that you are keen on um and second question that is on balance sheet by end q4 you had like two percent equity ratio approximately 560 million dollars equity uh quarterly dividend of 300 million dollars and you earn around 100 million dollars per quarter so over time unless of course oil and gas prices increases significantly most likely equity will be be lower so question is are you willing to run the company with a negative book value of equity

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Good. They're two good questions. And I'll let Carlo take the second one in a moment. But in terms of A&D, I mean, this company has been created by putting four companies together and some other asset acquisitions. And, you know, we have the capacity and capability to do more now that we've delivered transformational growth. I think it's time to think about the next steps. You know, we we're not going to talk about the type of assets, but fundamentally what we're looking at doing is, you know, acquiring opportunities where we can create a strategic for us and we can do it at a price that we can create value and we will maintain that discipline. But, of course, we continue to look to build the business and grow it over time. And, you know, I think we have an ambition. You know, we've set out more than 400,000 barrels a day long term. We have an ambition to make that bigger and longer. And I think we've got the capacity and capability to do it. But we'll, of course, not talk about specific opportunities or anything until we do them.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

When it comes to the question we had last year, as every company, we do an assessment and we don't run into negative equity. It's not something that we are clearly considering. The dividends are predicated on the basis of the expected profit generation. We are entering the year, this year is going to be the highest production year. On the macro, it might be a bit soft, but let's see. Today is probably a bit different. And the levers that we have, there are several levers to sustain it. What is important is to understand for the management is key to protect the dividend level. We're really committed to it. And there are levers that we can use in improving the business case or in optimizing our portfolio, and all these things will add on to our balance sheet, and we strengthen the balance sheet to sustain the dividend. So it's not a matter of negative equity. We won't run into negative equity, but we are confident that it's sustainable according to the profit we're going to generate.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

And I think just to stress this, I mean, the key focus of management, of course, is to run the business responsibly and deliver the targets that we've set. But its key focus is to deliver and protect dividends long term. And we will take thoughtful measures to manage that. And I think, you know, I'm confident we will manage this issue, Theodore. I think we have quite a number of options to do that. You know, of course, the first step is to generate the profit to cover it. But I think there's various levers we can use to manage this issue, and I'm confident we will deal with the challenge.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Next question from Yon, and then we'll take Victoria afterwards.

speaker
Nick

Yeah, sorry for following up on the dividend side. But when you delivered Q3, you said you're very comfortable that you will keep dividends at 1.2 billion for 2026 too. And actually, I think you promised that. And now it seems like you abandoned the 1.2. You're only guiding on the first quarter. Is that correct? And then I wonder, what kind of oil price do you need to sustain the 1.2 billion in dividend? And Carlo, you showed the chart on slide number 68. where you show that you're cash neutral about $40. The chart seems to imply that at $80, you have about $10 billion in free cash flow accumulated over the next seven years. If you divide that by seven, that's about $1.4 billion per year. So does that seem to indicate that you need almost $80 to have a free cash flow that supports the current dividend with a little bit of deleveraging?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Well, I'll take this. When it comes to the $5 to $10 billion and the $10 billion that you just mentioned, I think we have to look at this on an over-the-plan basis, so it does not imply each single year is the same. But as you mentioned, $80 is more than $1.2, it is actually higher than that, so it's not what...

speaker
Nick

1.4.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, exactly, exactly. It's more than that. So we're putting ourselves in a higher level. When it comes to what we said in Q3, which was 1.2, and we said we are confident 1.2, we're in a bit different environment. It was around $70. There was a lot of discussion about what is going to be 2026. The assessment we did is driven from where we are now. Not today, because today there is a lot of premium for geopolitical, and on this we can debate along whether it's going to remain or not. But what we see is a lot of volatility, a lot of significant volatility. Look at the gas price. You have plus or minus 10% on daily basis. It's extremely volatile. The assessment we did was really to be a bit more on the prudent side and say, let's assess the business, how it's going. Let's assess how the macro is going, making the right choice for today and for tomorrow. Now we are confident Q1, we have a visibility, 300 million. And as Nick was mentioning, it's top priority for the company, for the management, to protect the dividend level. But that's what we include in our assessment on being guiding for quarterly basis, Q1, 300 million, and then keeping the 25% to 30% guidance applicable for the following quarters.

speaker
Nick

Thank you. And my second question is regarding the long list of early phase projects. Is it possible to highlight the two, three key important ones in terms of volume and value that we should keep an eye on, please?

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

But before we do that, I'd like to just cover a little bit more on this. I mean, on the dividend. I mean, the key focus of management is to deliver long-term attractive dividends to shareholders. And I think it's quite simplistic to look at our projections on various oil prices because at low prices, the business can get better. I think we can make it better. I also think we have various options to do different things. And so I think the message we're trying to get across today, we have a resilient business that's got lots of optionality and flexibility and that we can use that optionality and flexibility to create different outcomes. So, you know, fundamentally, we are focused on delivering long term attractive dividends. But we are concerned about the volatility and predictability of the market, which changes regularly. And I think our investor base would want us to be prudent about how we think about that. And that's the approach we've taken looking at this. And so we are guided for the first quarter. Same run rate as for last year. And we haven't changed our long-term dividend guidance. It's 25% to 30% of CFFO over the cycles. And our aim is to continue to deliver on that through the year, recognizing the uncertainty that's out there. And that's how we've chosen to manage this going forward. You know, I think, as I say, I think looking at our projections, they're a guide. The reality is if we have low prices for longer, we will make this business better. But I'm confident, you know, Toga showed a chart showing how we've changed the production chart outlook. I am absolutely confident that when we come back next year, that's going to look even better. And we're going to deliver even better projects. And so I think we can continue to create more of this. We've set things like $10 per barrel OPEX. I think we can drive that down further. So I think we can continue to make this company much better. And that's what will allow us to long-term deliver sustainable and attractive dividends. With that, Torge, you can figure out which of the projects to pick out.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Yeah, you know, but it is a bit of a repeat to the earlier question. You know, I think number one is really the order of magnitude we have in this portfolio. It's fantastic, and we have been able to. So this is Mange Becker Små in Norwegian. You know, a lot of smaller creeks make a big river, directly translated. So that is one. But then also, I talked about our hubs. You know that we actually have early phase projects in the vicinity to all our operated hubs. I think that is really good. So then we're talking about Goliath. We are talking about Vidsyn and Fenja, which Luca talked about. We have the UR Subsea projects close to UR. And then down in the Boulder area, we have the... The Balder Next, which is a really exciting project, which constitutes the Kinder Egg, as Oddgeir named it. Very good. And then, of course, also we mentioned the previous produced field, which is really an exciting project. Actually, you're restarting three previous produced fields from the late 90s, which is going to give a lot of barrels. And then, of course, also what we like is all the subsidized bags that is coming in and around the Johan Casper, where we talk about this 1 billion barrels and decades of production. So as you understand, impossible to really choose a few. It is the order of magnitude that is exciting. And also I think what is exciting is actually that we improved the products in execution from around 35 last year to around 30 this year. So I think that is something to follow.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Part of the nature is we're in 50% of the producing fields in Norway, and we pretty well have investment activity into all of those. And so it's sort of difficult to pick out any particular item in all of this.

speaker
Nick

Thank you.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. We've got the next question from Victoria, and then we'll do Anlish afterwards.

speaker
spk14

Thanks very much, Victoria McCulloch at RBC. Firstly, on production, within slide 35 of your production, you show 3P reserves upside. Is any of that within your 2.5 to 2.7 billion capex forecast and the longer term 2.5 billion guide that you've provided? And then a second question would be on the projects, the break even, I guess, has gone up from last year and from your projects underway from $35 a barrel to $35 a barrel. to 35. Can you give us an understanding, you know, what is that project mix? Is that inflation? How do you see that characterised in the, I guess, the creep on breakeven?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Well, you know, I didn't really get your second question because I think the story is opposite. But could you just repeat the second question?

speaker
spk14

Yeah. So on the slide you show $30 a barrel breakeven for the projects underway, but $35 a barrel breakeven or less than $35 a barrel breakeven for the projects that you're looking to sanction in 2026. Have you seen inflation in the market or higher costs or is it a project mix?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

You know, the projects that we sanctioned have a break-even of around $30. So the project in execution has a break-even of around $30. Then the projects in the early phase, we see on average a break-even around $35. And that is what Nick just talked about, that we feel confident that we're going to work hard to improve. And I think that is also really the red thread through here, is that all the projects that we have been working, we have been able to improve. And that is really true better solutions. You know, we talked about the new ways of working and the solution. We are making more efficient concepts that get more barrels out of the ground for less, simply said. So I think, and that we are going to continue working. And so when Carlos showed the CAPEX, this is not inflation driven. This is activity-driven, and the fact that it is driven by our ability to improve the business cases, that means that we're actually pulling them to us and make them ready for sanction. So that's how we are working. Maybe I could add to that.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

What we haven't done is change our targets, actually. A year ago, we said we want to do projects that are less than $35 a week even. And we've been incredibly disciplined. In fact, we've recycled a number of projects to drive this down. And I think, you know, we've maintained a less than $35 break-even, but our focus is not that. It's much lower. And we've been able to do some projects quite a lot lower. And I think this environment will actually deflate some costs, and we're already seeing that, and allow us to make our projects better.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

And then to your question about the 3C, those are not included. What's covered in our CAPEX is the development of the 2P and the 2C.

speaker
spk14

It was related to the 3P on the production schedule. Is any of that an upside that you could get without additional CAPEX being added?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

That is really to utilize the potential and opportunities in the existing. So we have not allocated CapEx to that.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

No, but we could, Victoria, get some of that pictures of better performance. So, I mean, there's a bit of two things around this. Does it need more investment, but also can we get it for nothing, which is the nature of 3P resource a lot of the time.

speaker
spk14

Thanks.

speaker
Ola

In your impairment note in the quarterly report, you give the price assumptions which you use when you do impairment testing. And those prices are well above your price deck in the presentation material. So I was just wondering, why don't you use the same prices in your price deck in the presentation material as you do in your impairment testing? That's my first question. I would assume that's a reasonable assessment. Second question is on CapEx. Could you please provide some sort of guidance or indication what kind of investment you're incurring per, I don't know, 100 million barrels of resources developed. So we have some sort of figure to think about your capex going forward. Given the mix of the portfolio, I assume it's low capex since it's a lot of tieback, etc.? ?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I can take the one for impairment that you mentioned. I suppose you are referring to the, for example, $79 on 2028.

speaker
spk02

For instance?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Just for consideration, those are nominal, and what we're showing here is the alternative. So the 75 we're showing in 2028 in the deck of the CMU has to be inflated at 2%, basically. So it won't be that different, honestly. It's just a bit different shape.

speaker
Ola

Well, aren't your figures in the presentation nominal figures?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

No? Those are real terms.

speaker
Ola

Okay, so all the figures that you refer to when it comes to CFO, etc., are real terms?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Those are nominal figures. 5 to 10 billion is nominal. So we apply the deck that we have presented, and this deck is just inflated with the base inflation of 2%. Okay. As we've always done. So the two figures we are looking at are actually quite similar on a nominal basis.

speaker
Ola

Okay, I can revert to that later. And the CapEx question?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Yeah, the CapEx question I'm still thinking on. No, I think it will be difficult to give you a number, you know, dollar per barrel. What we communicated is the break-evens of our portfolio. And as we also said, we are staying very disciplined. That means that we are maintaining, you know, the sanction, you know, $35 internal right to return above $25. And we see for the projects in execution, as I said, you know, around $30 and then for the early phase around $35. And then also, of course, Carlo talked to the CapEx guidance going forward, you know, for being in the... in the range $2.5 billion post-2026. I think that is what we have to relate to in this regard. I think it's a bit difficult to... Because there's various equity and all these kind of things. But I think the message, and you had it right, because... The subsidy tiebacks, they are lower risk, they are standardized, and they are really, let's say, capex efficient. So it brings a lot of value per dollar invested. And also, as I think Ola said a few times, really this short payback time and really also the short cycle time, which makes it very, let's say, cash generative.

speaker
Ola

But you have depreciation in the low 20s per barrel. And if you have a break-even of below 35, I would assume that you would push it further down in your communication if it was much lower. And an up X of 10, that kind of suggests a cap X of 20 to 25 per barrel of new investments. Would that be fair?

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, but I think you have to look at it slightly differently. I mean, all our developments are tie-backs, so they come with very low OPEX per barrel. They're not $10 OPEX per barrel.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

I said in my presentation, I said $3 per average in operation cost. So that is really the beauty with these products. They are utilizing existing infrastructure, so really it's very low incremental operational cost. and of course also then lower emission that helps both on the operational cost and the tech side of things. So that is the beauty of these projects.

speaker
Ola

Okay, I won't take more time, but I'll leave it.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. We're going to cover a couple of questions from the call before we round off with some final questions from the room. We have Nash from Barclays on the line. Please go ahead.

speaker
Nash

Thanks, Ida. Hey, everyone. It's Nestle from Barclays. Thanks for the detailed presentation. Two questions, if that's okay. The first one, I want to ask about slide 35. I thought it's an interesting slide, but I wonder, could I ask which asset drive the quick production decline post-2030? And should we think roughly about 2.5 billion is the capex you need to keep production flat. And then my second question is, it's nice to hear that you guys are adopting better technologies, including AI to save costs and improve efficiency. Would you be able to quantify some of the impacts over there? And could there be any upside given how quickly that AI is evolving? Thank you.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

So, Nash, good afternoon. Page 35 is the question that you had to the start. The first question, maybe you could just repeat it.

speaker
Nash

Yes. Sorry, Nick. My question is, what drives the production decline after 2030? If I look at the dark blue section, there's a big sharp decline after 2030. I wonder what's your assumption over there? And then it's 2.5 billion capex roughly as a run rate to keep production flat.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

I think the way to look at this is that our investments start to run out at that point because what we've put in the hopper here is the development of two-thirds of our 2C contingent resources. And naturally, the activity starts to drop off. In reality, as we move forward, we've got quite a lot of discovered resource that we haven't put projects to. I would expect us to find ways to do that. And secondly, Luca is going to find us lots more oil and gas. And I would expect that we're going to create new projects as we've demonstrated. So the reality is this should get better over time. And I think we wanted to show you an outlook that shows where we can see today and where we see the certainty. But the reality is our capital drops off at the end of this time frame. And that's what drives that.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

It is really the lead time, as Nick is saying. And also, as we said earlier, we don't include any exploration here. You know, talk about the technology and artificial intelligence. Number one, I think it's difficult to quantify a number But we see significant, you know, the potential is immense. And that is also what we communicate or try to communicate at least is that we are setting very tough ambitions how we are going to drive improvements in our core business, you know, from subsurface, drilling and well, production development and operations. And really where we see this is what to say skyrocketing or amplifying is when we are able to combine it. And that is, we are seeing big results already, you know, on this particular, and I think Guru, you know, my favorite movie today, you know, she showed it very well. Because in the Balder area, where we have been producing for a long, long, long time, we are now able to combine the new seismic, you know, the OBN, ocean bottom node seismic, with artificial intelligence. then suddenly we are able to develop more, for instance, infill wells. So this is really, I would say, paying off fast, and we see a big, big, big potential and looking forward to come back and talk more about and present more about this going forward and next year for sure. But as I said, we want to be best on this, and we have big ambitions that we showed on the slide here. So more to come.

speaker
Nash

Perfect. Thank you very much, Nick. Thanks, Tolga. Very clear.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. I've also got a question from Christian at Citi. Please go ahead.

speaker
spk02

Hi, can you guys hear me okay? Yes. Hi, Tim Holmby from Citi. I've got a few questions, please. The first one is on your new production forecast. So in the past, you emphasized the phrase of organically sustaining production through 2030, but you've not used that wording this time. So should we assume that achieving the new 400,000 barrel per day production outlook now definitely requires some inorganic M&A? And in a bidian turn, it looks like you'll need contributions from the 3P volumes to bridge the gap to reach the 400,000 barrel per day. I understand these are largely linked to the upside in reservoir performance. Do you have any past success cases where 3P volumes have actually contributed? And lastly, I want to follow up on the book value of equity. You talked about balance sheet with sufficient free equity in the footnote. Is there a threshold level that you're required to maintain? And given that your book equity is already running quite slim. Can we assume from a modeling perspective that you may need to issue more hybrid capital to keep your equity above a certain threshold? Thank you.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Maybe if I get the first one and Carla does the second one. In terms of a production outlook, what we've set out there is continued production out of our 2P reserve base, which includes developed resource and the 13 projects in development. And it includes development of the 30 early phase projects that we set out, which are based on discovered resource. We don't need exploration to deliver that outlook. We don't need acquisitions to deliver that outlook. those things would create more value and an upside on that. But I look at the diversity of our portfolio, and I think there's opportunity and upside opportunity in many, many places. I think there's the opportunity for 3P reserves in some places. I think there's opportunity to develop the other part of our 2C contingent resources, which are not included in the developed volume that we're looking at, which is about two-thirds or 300 million barrels close to of the 900 million barrels, which we can move forward. And I'm confident that we will generate more exploration opportunities. We've made six discoveries last year. One's already in production. Three, one's already committed development. And the other four are moving in the right direction to be developed. And we would expect to continue to do that. And I think what you should expect is that over time, the trajectory that Toga showed is that we've been able to progressively show an improvement in the outlook for the company and organically grow resources, which is what we're based on. I think we can continue to do that over many years.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I'll take this when it comes to the hybrid you mentioned. So, as we say, the dividends are predicated on the basis of the profit generation and are predicated also on the various levers that we have that we were discussing before. When it comes specifically to the hybrid, it's a tool to strengthen the balance sheet, which is available. You know that you already have issued one back in 2023, so we know the product. It's a very active market, so it's a tool that is in the toolbox to be considered.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. I've got two more questions in writing. One from Matt Smith of Bank of America. Does the CapEx outlook already take into account the potential to reduce high project equity stakes?

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

The answer to that is no.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Yes, no.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

So if we sell some of our assets, then we would reduce the capital in the outlook.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

It's based on equity as of today. Correct.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

And then the second question from Vidar at Danske Bank. I believe you mentioned production hit 443,000 barrels on the 23rd of January, while it has averaged 423 in the first week of February. And from slide 25, it looks like you expect Q1 to average further below this. Could you provide some colour on what drives the declining production through the latter part of Q1?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Well, I don't think we should call it a decline in production. You know, it is really, let's say, there is plant regularity on this installation that reflects the plant production as such. And, of course, also we have some startups that is coming in and adds to this. So I think that what we've been showing and what we've been producing is very much in accordance to plan. But then, of course, you have some days when everything is ticking, which was the 23rd of January, that then showed the potential as such when you have the, let's say, simultaneous uptime. And you don't, as we are planning with our production efficiency, you know, it's never 100% as such.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. I've got one question from Stefan here, BNB. Thank you.

speaker
Stefan

Yes, Stefan Evian from D&B Carnegie. Two questions on the Goliath gas export. Just wondered, since it's now 5% of your 2P reserves, when should we expect those gas exports to hit your volumes, your production, and what kind of revenues could we expect on your side from those volumes? And my second question is on the U2 and FPSO, the bottlenecking there as well. How much more production capacity can you get out of that FPSO once that project is finished? Yeah.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Do you want to get those? Yeah, I will try. I just had to write down so I remember. The gallite gas is really what's constituting of two, three elements. One is the gas, and then it's, I would say, including the oil. So what really that is going to help us with is that that is one, it's going to be an exit for the gas, and that is also going to optimize the drainage strategy, meaning that we are able to produce more oil. So that is, of course, a value equation that we are going to realize immediately when that project is started up. And then it is the gas, and that will go to Snøvit, and then we will have a gas re-delivery from Snøvit when there is available capacity at Snøvit. So really it's two ways of monetizing this. It's the additional oil, and then following the improved drainage strategy, and then it's the gas when the gas capacity is available at Snövit.

speaker
Stefan

Just to follow up on that, isn't Snövit sort of at full capacity for quite some time?

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Yes, that's correct. So it would have a full capacity into the 2040s. So really the value equation, you know, the immediate value equation of the startup here is related to the oil part. And then later it's related to the gas part. But this is a good project. And as also Odger said, you know, it will be ready for sanction during this year.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

And I think it's worth saying this is quite a simple project. I mean, that's a very short pipeline length for us to connect this up. And and then the other side of this is if when we develop Goliath Ridge, we need to do something with the gas. We can't put it back into the reservoir. And this is the cheapest way of dealing with that. So it not only is the project standalone on its own and create value, a good value. It's a leveraging when we look at the Goliath Ridge development.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

And then the Jotun de-bottlenecking. And that is also really serving two or three purposes. One, it is about de-bottlenecking the gas and water capacity at Jotun. So that will then lead to two things, our ability to accelerate production that we can take more oil through the to the episode and then secondly which is having a big impact is of course that we then can take because then we don't need the capacity about fpu so we can take that to shore and then reduce the OPEX, reduce the emission. And also, as I would say, a benefit there is that we then are drilling new wells that is both draining the old remaining reserves related to the Ballard FPU and then increasing the recovery in the area. So that is really what the Kinder Eggers talked about there. Thanks. Thanks.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

I think we have room for one more question, uh, from, oh yeah, sorry. I didn't see you there. Uh, Alejandra JP Morgan.

speaker
Alejandra

Hi, Alejandra from JP Morgan. Given the higher investment level outlined today to support your stronger production outlook, where should we expect dividends to fall within the 25 to 30% range in the near term? And my second question is on the $500 million cost reduction program you announced last year for 25 and 26. Could you update us on progress so far and how much of that benefit is now reflected in your cost and cash flow guidance?

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

Good call.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

May I ask you to repeat, please, the first part of the question? If you don't mind, if you can repeat.

speaker
Alejandra

The first question?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, the first question, please.

speaker
Alejandra

Yeah, so where within the 25% to 30% range should we expect the payouts in the near term, given the higher investment level for your stronger production outlook?

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Sure, I'll take it. We are confirming 25% to 30%, and actually the increase in capex, again, has to be seen in the context of which kind of investment we are doing. We are doing investment at a very short time to market and very quick in terms of payback. So we are shuffling the capital very quickly. Every three years, basically, we start getting the money back, two to three years. And this is what is sustaining the dividend long-term. And the 25% to 30% then still work. So you have to put together, I believe, the elements that you have to consider are quick time to market, continuous sustaining of profit and cash generation for the dividend, and at the same time, the leverage that has been shown It's well below where we want to be. We have a lot of flexibility. You see also in the sensitivity we presented that even lower price, we still remain very well within. So there's ample flexibility when it comes to investing and sustaining the dividend. So there's no sort of contradiction or competition. It's actually an enhancing circle where you invest quick time to market, quick returns, and continue reshuffling.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

capital and and very cash generation that's the that's the model and and and then to the 500 million US dollar I think we we have really will say met what we said but it's and I will try to explain it you know we talked about expiration or and Luca did you know that we are then there we are reducing the the expiration expenditures you know we were a around 400 for last year, 250 to 300 this year, and then for a longer term, around 200, following the improvement and efficiency and the focus on quality. So that's one. I also talked about the OPEX, where we are taking out 400 million US dollar over the period 26 to 30, which comes in addition to the Ballard FPU to shore. And then comes the CAPEX. And this is where it comes a little bit complicated because really we have been able to improve all our projects and that includes that we are improving the income side and reducing the cost side but that also means that we are able to move projects closer to us so so really we've taken out a lot of costs but you don't see it in the sense that we are in a way self-funding or projects in addition to that comes also the previous produced fields where we increased increased our equity so that is also you know coming in there so All in all, we have been really prudent on taking down and out cost, but that is also meaning that we have an ability to improve and accelerate our value creation through the early phase projects and the projects that we're going to sanction this year.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Thank you. Any further questions? One here from Theodore. Yeah, here at the front. Thank you.

speaker
Theodore

Thank you. We saw high gas prices in January. Have you been able to take advantage of those, either selling gas at high prices or locking in some of the price? And if I may, a second question. What's the status of the Barents gas pipeline?

speaker
spk02

Okay, I'll take the first one.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

And then I'll get the second one. The answer is we are doing some, yes. We are, as usual, quite active when it comes to trading our gas. So we are... 14% of our production has already been locked at $75. This is the result of the gas we had previous year. We are taking some... position also leveraging on the high gas price that we saw in January. As you see, this is an example of the volatility. There's been a few days very high, then 10% less, then 5% up. So we are anyway taking active position already blocking some interesting sale and fixed price transaction, yes.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

And then on the Barents Sea gas, I mean, I think everyone knows we spent some money together with others, Equinor and ACBP, exploring over recent years with the aim to try and move the understanding of the gas resource forward. I mean, it's clear there's a lot of gas there, but... but not quite enough or about half as much as enough needed to develop a new export route. And I think, you know, we've drilled a few wells last year and then I think we need to sit back. We've got reduced activity there this year, but I think next year we'll have some more wells and I think we just need to see how this progresses over time. You know, it's clear today we don't have enough gas to develop an export route, but And let's see where it progresses over time. And I think there's still some big prospects there. And we have one or two prospects that could themselves be big enough. And we need to work them up further.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. One final question here.

speaker
Ola

Excellent, thank you. You said in the presentation that CapEx would be slightly higher in 27 and 28. And you give a figure from 27 to 32, which is a pretty long period. So could you give some more clarity on the 27-28 figure? Is it 50% above or 100% above? No.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

It's not 100% above.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

No, it's...

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

You can assume around 15% to 20% above the average for a couple of years. It's still a preliminary figure. We're working on the plan and there are a number of activities.

speaker
Torgir
Executive Vice President, Production & Development

Here, me and the CFO are fighting a little bit because this is what it stands as today, slightly bigger, but of course we are going to work to make things better. Maybe we will see it back to the numbers.

speaker
Carlo
Chief Financial Officer

But in the context of a cap space in Israel? Yeah. Not that. It's 10% to 15%.

speaker
Nick Walker
Chief Executive Officer

It's really immaterial in the overall scheme of things, given the tax system here.

speaker
Ida
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. That concludes the Q&A and the Capital Markets Update. Thank you all for joining, and we wish you a good rest of your day.

Disclaimer

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