Verbio Se

Good afternoon everyone and a warm welcome to the Verbio earnings call for the first half of the fiscal year 2024-25. Today's speakers are Klaus Sauter, CEO of Verbio and Olaf Drüber, CFO of the company. They will walk us through the company's performance of the first half of the fiscal year, touching on key milestones, market trends and strategic initiatives. But before we dive in, a quick housekeeping note. The conference is being recorded and all participants are in a listen-only mode. If you have questions, please submit them using the chat box and we will address them in the Q&A session after the presentation. Please make sure to preface each question with your name and the name of your company in order to be considered. And without further ado, I'll hand it over to Mr. Sauter and Mr. Trüber. The floor is yours.

Thank you very much, Harry. Good afternoon, everyone. And thanks for joining us for our second quarter of 2024, 2025 and half year earnings call. I am here today with Olaf Trüber, our CFO. Looking back at the past six months, we've made good progress on our major growth project, our ethanolesis plant in Bitterfeld. From 2026, we will produce first amounts of renewable molecules at our Bitterfeld site for the chemical industry. Speciality chemicals are key ingredients in detergents, cleaning products, high-performance lubricants and plastics. With this, we are driving the transition from fossil-based to renewable raw materials in the chemical sector. Meanwhile, the ethanol plant startup in Nevada hasn't gone as smoothly as expected due to equipment malfunctions. We are working at full capacity to resolve these quality issues and ramp up operations. The technology and process in Nevada are proven and reliable. Hence, our long-term outlook remains fully intact. Shifting to our operating results, the recovery of the greenhouse gas market is not happening as quickly as we anticipated. Operating conditions continue to be challenging in the German greenhouse gas quota market due to the huge oversupply of greenhouse gas credits created from fraudulent products. Fortunately, we are seeing things stabilize thanks to national and international measures and expect to see significant improvement in the region in calendar year 2025. Despite these challenges, we delivered a strong second quarter, particularly thanks to our biodiesel segment performance. Verbio continued to focus on operational excellence which resulted in cross-margin improvement quarter over quarter and year over year in the segment despite lower spot market spreads. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Olaf to take us through some financials and then I'll come back with my thoughts on 2025. Olaf, the floor is yours.

Thanks, Klaus, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start with an overview of the first half of 2024-2025 before diving into Q2. So the first slide, key figures. We once again can report record production volumes. The year-over-year increase in ethanol volumes the light green bars in the chart on the far left, was driven by better utilization in all regions and specifically at the plant in South Bend. No previous owner of this ethanol plant has managed to produce volumes like that in the past 20 years. Our R&G production volumes also increased thanks to better utilization at our plants in Nevada and India. Yet our EBITDA declined to 14.3 million euro, mostly on the back of week first quarter, of the week first quarter. Average product margins in the first half of the year were much lower than in the same period last year. This was largely due to an oversupply of greenhouse gas reductions caused by the fraud in the German market. Notably, in the first half of 23-24, WERPI was still benefiting from higher contractually fixed greenhouse gas premiums, making last year's comparison basis quite tough. Our net debt at the end of December stood at roughly 97 million euros as we continued to invest into our key projects. These include mainly South Bend ethanol and our plant for speciality chemicals in Germany, Klaus mentioned before. While we continue to invest, we proceed with caution and keep our focus on our balance sheet strength. Capital expenditures totaled €36 million in the second quarter and €62 million for the first half, 24-25. Meanwhile, our operating cash flow remained positive and, well, quite good. The equity ratio was still close to 65% and remained largely stable. With that, I will turn to Q2. So overview Q2 24-25. As Klaus already mentioned, the second quarter was overall satisfactory considering the challenging markets and the continued burden from our North American operations. As expected, we saw a strong recovery in the second quarter 24-25 compared to the first quarter of the current financial year. EBITDA for the second quarter stood at 20.8 million euros compared to minus 6.6 million euros in the first quarter and 26 million euros in the same period last year. Quarter over quarter, both main segments, biodiesel and the combined segment bioethanol, biomethane, showed a significant improvement in EBDR. In biodiesel segment alone, EBDR more than doubled. The significant recovery is due to attractive production margins, thanks to favorable rapeseed oil purchases compared to the spot market. The recovery in the bioethanol biomethane segment compared to the previous quarter is largely due to the development of changes in the value of financial assets and commodity futures next slide please biodiesel segment um then let me now give you a bit more color on the individual year-over-year performance of the segment as you can see in the chart on the left revenues remained largely stable at 242 million euro at comparable production and sales volumes higher average biodiesel prices in the quarter were partially offset by lower greenhouse gas premiums and effect that our Canadian plant has operated through processing contracts from December 23 through November 24, November last year, which essentially means lower revenues and raw material costs. Despite more attractive greenhouse gas premiums last year, we managed to increase ABDR by 25% year over year, due to our focus on spread or margin management. We capitalize on high biodiesel prices thanks to favorable rapeseed oil purchases. Next slide, please. Well, and update, yeah. But speaking of Canada, much like many of our biodiesel peers in North America, We have reduced our production volumes at Wellend due to difficult margin environment. And well, it's worth to know this had been conservatively anticipated in our initial guidance because of expected challenges linked to the transition of incentive schemes from the Blender's tax credit BTC to the production tax credit PTC. The BTC is feedstock agnostic, means eligible parties receive $1 per gallon, or it translates to roughly 280 euros per ton, whereas the PTC intensifies a low carbon intensity and gives a different value for each feedstock. We are planning to ramp up the plant in March again as the recent PTC guidance should work in favor. So why? Excluding canola oil from the PTC puts American producers at a disadvantage. Canola oil, which mostly comes from Canada, is not eligible for the PTC. And with this, we can produce biodiesel approximately 35 euros per ton cheaper compared to an US player who would opt for soybean oil, which comes from the US. Biodiesel market development in Europe is the next slide. Back to our operating performance in the second quarter. um the result of our margin management becomes evident when we look at a chart on the left on average spot spreads were almost 30 euros per ton of biodiesel less in the fourth calendar quarter compared to last year while the contract greenhouse gas premiums were lower this year we still managed to improve product margins year over year. The demand for biodiesel was lower compared to the same period last year, mainly due to macroeconomic factors and reduced mileage. Additionally, parties with quota obligations have moderately put back on their blending by the end of 2024 since the transfer of quotas was suspended. As a result, the decline in biodiesel imports from China only partially helped biodiesel spreads. If you now take a look, you will notice that the spread between biodiesel and rapeseed oil were significantly lower than last year. However, it's worth pointing out that both biodiesel and rapeseed oil prices did rise during the reporting period, mainly due to trends in the vegetable oil market. Next slide, Alina. Thank you. In the bioethanol biomethan segment, sales declined to 147 million euros, as you can see in the far left bar for Q2 2024-25. This is despite the fact that production volumes increased. The sales trend was driven by lower sales prices and specifically lower greenhouse gas premiums. And the decrease in earnings to minus 15.3 million euro was primarily the result of a lower gross margin somewhat offset by lower personal expenses and favorable changes in fair value of commodity forward contracts and FX effects. Well, it's also worth to mention that the dollar cash holdings had been increased to the upcoming payments at South Bend Ethanol to safeguard the ITC, the investment tax credit for the investment. But the general approach remains unchanged, which is to optimize with as little exposure as possible to avoid unnecessarily increasing sensitivity. Sensitivity, sorry. bioethanol market development. Well, due to higher blending mandates and the introduction of E10 in Poland, there was a strong demand for ethanol. Apart from that, ethanol remained a cheap blending component. So we expect that those with quota obligations in Germany only slightly reduced their blending by the end of 24. They hence continue to build up greenhouse gas quota surplus that won't be available until 2027 due to changes in regulation. Relatively lower bioethanol spreads during the quarter compared to last year can be partially linked to imports from the US. Now turning to the US. In the US, the good harvest and low corn prices drove the bioethanol prices lower in the summer months, as you can see in the chart on the right side. At the same time, manufacturers pushing production to a maximum and thereby squeezing margins compared to last year, as depicted on the left. Also, seasonal demand trends kicked in. In summer, more thriving lead to higher bioethanol demand, but margins usually dip in the winter and the demand drops in the colder months. Now back to Klaus, who will give you more insight on the quota and what's happening there.

Thank you, Olaf. So, Amendment to the 38th Ordinance Stabilized Greenhouse Gas Quota Prices. So, during our second quarter, on November 13th, the German Federal Cabinet approved the draft amendment on the 38th regulation on the implementation of the Federal Emission Protection Act put forward by the Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection. BMUV. This was an emergency measure. It's firefighting. In the preamble of the greenhouse gas emergency amendment, The BMUV writes that the measure is designed to increase the demand and the prices for greenhouse gas quotas in the future. With the amendment to the 13.8 BIMSV-Verordnung, obligated parties lose the option to use their surplus CO2 savings, where a lot is fraudulent, for offsetting purposes in 2025 and 2026. Since the publication of the draft, the demand for greenhouse gas quotas for 2024 has almost come to a standstill. This makes sense because there will now be a delay until 2027 before the 2024 surplus quotas can be used again. If the 2025 surplus, if there will be a surplus, has to be delayed into 2027. So why would anyone buy them? As a result, prices have fallen sharply in the short term for 2024. Meanwhile, the quota prices for 2025 have started to increase, as you can see on the slide in front of you. Unfortunately, the immediate recovery is slower than expected. We see two main reasons. Firstly, there are sellers in the market that are purely driven by liquidity needs currently, which works in favor of big oil. But transaction volumes should be rather low. Furthermore, greenhouse gas balances for 2024 remain open until the end of March. So there hasn't been much focus on anything beyond that yet. As the 2024 quota year closes, attention will likely shift toward 2025. Meanwhile, the focus on maximizing blending low carbon intensity fuels as any unblended tone of fuel would be a lost opportunity. To fulfill the target 2025 for the obligated parties will be a challenge. But Recovery slower than expected. New guidance hit by market and technical issues at Nevada plant. So, the slower than initially expected recovery of the spot greenhouse gas quota prices, the lower than planned greenhouse gas quota prices contracted to minimize risk and the technical issues at Nevada led us to reduce our EBITDA guidance for the current financial year on January 15th. We are now expecting an EBITDA result in the mid double-digit million range versus previously 120 million euro to 160 million euro. And our expectation for net financial debt at the end of the financial year remains unchanged at the maximum of 190 million Euro. Let me give you now a bit more detail on Nevada. Unfortunately, quality issues with equipment at the ethanol production facility have been detected during the startup phase. And this equipment is based in the old DuPont plant, which we bought several years ago. So, small things, but the repairs will take some time and lead to a delay in our ramp-up. An example is rust in valves that were originally installed in the existing facility and now need to be replaced one by one. So this is roughly about 200 valves. And now during the winter season when it is terribly cold. It's a challenge, but we are doing progress. As I said at the beginning of the call, the EBITDA impact is a timing shift, not a structural issue. The ramp-up delay in Nevada postpones the expected positive EBITDA contribution further, and the repairs at a single-digit million-euro amount in costs. But despite the revised timeline, our long-term outlook remains intact. We remain fully committed to the successful execution of Nevada. We now expect to provide a revised completion schedule with our Q3 results in May. The full utilization is key to running a bioethanol plant profitably. To mitigate the impact, we are working at full capacity, ensuring that all the necessary improvements meet our performance standards. My colleague, or our colleague, our CTO, Professor Dr. Lütterke, is on site, actively managing the process, and we maintain a low utilization at below 25%. So let me now hand back to Olaf, who will discuss the net debt guidance. Olaf?

Thank you, Klaus. Yeah, as highlighted by Klaus, despite the lower levels ABDR, our expectations for net debt remains unchanged. We have some flexibility in managing our capex, particularly in connection with South Bend. The pace of investment is being adjusted. Some further liquidity measures include the management of financial assets. Furthermore, we are optimizing working capital so that by the end, the initially unplanned strategic build up in inventories linked to the new quota regulations is seen to be offset. Next slide, please. Thank you. Shifting from our guidance to the outlook ahead, we are focusing on free cash flow growth. After a period of heavy investments, And in the context of the challenging market environment, we now focus on optimizing existing assets through plant modernization and cost-out investments, while our strategic growth projects are all being reviewed. The ethanolysis plant build-out continues at full speed. And we have just recently put out a press release on the achievement of a construction milestone, namely the installation of the distillation column. Meanwhile, the investment at South Bend Ethanol to transform the plant into a state of the art facility that combines the production of ethanol with RNG will be phased. We will take each construction phase one by one. Also, the investment into the CNG and LNG gas station network will be finalized this financial year. And with this, we are expecting to capture the rent in the value chain of biomethane. and also worth to note any opportunistic grow initiatives are under review now klaus will give you uh will give us an update on market expectations which are also seen supporting cash flow going forward

Yeah, I was on mute. Sorry. Thank you. OK, so, yes, we are optimistic. You see here accelerating greenhouse gas quota. Which was finally the target of that. Measurement from German regulator, so the accelerating greenhouse gas quota recovery is for the German market and for the European market imminent. We are optimistic about calendar year 2025 and 2026. As we near the end of 2024 quota year in March, attention will likely shift to 2025 in the quota market. With the increase in greenhouse gas quota mandate to 10.6% in 2025, demand is expected to rise significantly. At the same time, supply should tighten due to several key developments. First, UER projects, most of them from China, most of them are fraudulent. So UER projects are being discontinued and the option to carry over quotas into 2025 and 2026 has been eliminated. So the 1.2% UER options are away and this amount has now to be fulfilled by physical molecules. More demand. Additionally, anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel are adding pressure to supply. Also, China itself has removed the 13% export tax rebate on used cooking oil, which was effectively as a subsidy of around $120 to $150 per ton. So for exporting used cooking oil from China, you got a subsidy of $130 to $150 per ton. This is aimed at boosting domestic biofuels production. On top of that, Indonesia is implementing stricter controls on palm oil derivatives, like pome, hapor, and used cooking oil, further restricting exports. All of these factors combined should create a tighter market for CO2 savings, which should significantly impact the market going forward. So Indonesia takes action on fraud indication and that backs German greenhouse gas markets. So on slide 16, you see the announcement. So what has happened? Indonesia exports of Pome and Hapur, which is finally palm oil, and which is feedstocks for the production of advanced biofuels according to European regulation, have been rising sharply, surpassing crude palm oil exports. This article reads that Pome and Hapur exports reach 3.4 million tons, while crude palm oil exports were only 2.7 million tons. So over the past five years, Pome and Hapur exports grew by nearly 21% per year, while crude palm oil exports dropped by almost 20% annually. I think everybody who looks on these figures will realize very fast what's going to happen. So the Indonesian Trade Minister pointed out that these exports have far exceeded reasonable limits as normally, only around 300,000 tons, not 3.5 million, 300,000 tons of these residues should be exported. This means that crude palm oil is being mixed with POME or HAPOR inflating export numbers. With only crude palm oil exports being taxed, Indonesia is losing a great amount of money because POME are not taxed with export taxes. So in response, the government introduced new regulations in January 2025 to impose stricter controls on the export of palm oil derivatives like Pome, Hapur and used cooking oil. So with this left, I hand over to the operator and we can start with the Q&A session.

Thank you so far for the insights. We will now move on to the Q&A. We received a couple of questions already, but as a reminder, please submit your question via the chat function and make sure to state your name and the company name. I will read them one by one. We will try to cover as many as possible in the time we have. We will start with the sell side analysts followed by buy side analysts and investors. So let's dive right in. And the first question three received are coming from Pablo from Kepler Chevreux. He has four questions. So maybe we start with the first one. Can you maybe help to detail which is the expected annual negative ABBA TA linked to the operational issue in the US bioplans due to the equipment failure?

I think I think so.

Shall I?

OK, yeah, go ahead. I think we ask the question by question, not all the questions to answer. Yes, go ahead, Olaf.

So in Q1, the effect was roughly minus 5 million. And in the second quarter, approximately minus 9 million. So if you put it to an entire year, you would end up more or less with a 30 million. But again, that's just a calculation. It heavily depends on the ramp up. and how to ramp up will happen. And as we outlined before, we will provide further information beginning of May with the release of our nine months figures. Please be patient.

But what I want to add here is the question is that what is linked just to the delay in the ramp up and the equipment failure. What Olaf mentioned is the overall ethanol result. So it's not the 9 million for Q2 is not only due to our delay in the ramp up. It is also that right now, the ethanol margins in the US are under pressure. And margins traditionally, you know, over the wintertime are lower. So that will recover. And we expect that it will recover from March onwards. So it is not only the failure, it's also weak ethanol margins right now in the US. Okay, next question, please.

Speaking about the US plant, maybe we can add Mr. Mühlenbruch from MWB Research. The consequences of the technical issue in the US, could they lead to other major challenges, including financials one? You mentioned that already with the APTA. When do you expect the facility to be fully operational and when does it reach the full capacity?

So right now the plan is that after the winter time is over, we are ramping up quickly. So we expect that the plant can be, let's say 80, 90% capacity at the beginning of the new financial year. So we will not be able to manage it right now until the end of that business year. So June would be a little bit too early, but we expect during summertime that we can be on full capacity for ethanol and gas production.

Short follow up question. At what capacity utilization do you reach break even in Nevada?

Well, it depends on ethanol and on the prices. But usually such a plant must run between 90% and 100% full utilization, and then you are making money.

Perfect. Thanks for these insights. Leaving the US behind, can you update us, which is your view about the RET3 implementation in Germany in terms of timing and business implications?

So the plan should be that the REDD3 implementation should be finished at the end of May 2025. That's the timeline given by the European Union. But we are getting now a new government. It will take time. But it should be in the first half of 2025, the implementation of the REDD3. And our main expectation is not about increasing, further increasing the volumes or the regulation what we have right now is really ambitious. But what we want to know is how the government will deal with the fraudulent co2 savings coming from uer which are significant we are talking about several million tons of co2 savings which were finally not delivered and the question is how we will find a way with the government to put these wrong co2 savings until 2030 on top of the existing curve So that is our challenge. And finally also, what measures will be taken to provide Frout in the future? So some restriction regulation that not everybody can deliver into the European market, more controls on the feedstock side. And finally, which is the most important, the ability for European, for German regulator to control production and feedstock supply where it is coming from. So we are not so much focused on higher targets. We are more focused on getting the existing targets safer.

Thanks for the insight. Another question from Pablo. Do you see feasible to maintain a similar performance in the biodiesel segment when compared to the H1 performance?

Well, it's hard to say now. We expected faster increase in greenhouse gas prices yet. and it is the beginning of February, it didn't happen. So we expect furthermore profitable biodiesel margins and biodiesel results. But if it will be in the same range like Q2, that's too early to say. The market is reacting very fast. We saw it especially in ethanol last week that ethanol prices were jumping up and down. So the market is very nervous at the moment and margins can very fast increase and the same, they can also drop. So right now, I think we have the focus from the obligated parties is mainly on 2024 still. So as I said, I'm surprised that quota prices are still so low because the challenge to fulfill the obligation for 2025 is huge. We are talking about additional 10 million tons of CO2 savings. And right now, I don't know how they want to manage to bring these molecules into the fossil fuels because everywhere, ethanol and also with biodiesel, we have blending walls.

Thank you. Last question from Pablo Kepler-Chevreux. Are you seeing any change in demand pattern on RNG during the last month in your countries?

No. RNG demand is very stable. And, you know, the focus is since one or one and a half years, not anymore only on Germany, since one and a half years, it is possible to transfer renewable natural gas all over Europe. And our export volumes have significantly increased. So there is an increasing demand for RNG in Europe. So we don't see anything. And I think the most important thing is now, and that's our look, how the greenhouse gas quota prices will increase. And if it's going to increase and come to a more profitable situation, then we have still possibilities to increase our volumes and to produce with the same amount of molecules what we are selling to realize higher greenhouse gas savings. But everything is now focused on what the quota price will do. And we are very flexible on that side. Our molecules, we have full books for the calendar year. So the volumes are fixed and there we have some flexibility to create more or less greenhouse gas savings. Technically, we are super flexible there, but there must be a business case. Finally, the time is running for us. We are not under pressure. The volumes are sold. Margins are, especially for the European market, reasonable. In the US market, yes, we have there the technical issues, but also that shift from the blenders tax credit to the production tax credit makes absolute sense. The Biden administration missed to send out the details about the regulation in time. So that is the reason why at the moment, margins in ethanol are low, biodiesel flow is also disrupted. But very soon now that will change. More clarity will come to the market. And therefore, I am strong that everywhere the margins will recover and will become more profitable. And we are not under pressure. As I said, we can observe the market and relate it to the recovery in the margins. We are able to create more greenhouse gas savings, or if the pricing is not sufficient, we will not do it. There must be some, let's say, premium on high greenhouse gas creation, which I don't see right now. Let's see what's going to happen. It will be a very interesting year 2025.

The next question comes from Mr. Hesse. Jefferies, do you expect better rapeseed oil prices to continue benefiting in the remaining quarters? It seems biodiesel spread is under-narrowing quite a bit again in Q3 and Q4.

Well, rapeseed oil prices came already up significantly. But what is very interesting is during our presentation, we mentioned that canola oil in Canada has a disadvantage compared to soybean oil in the US. So in Canada, farmers are not growing soybean. They are growing canola, which is rapeseed at the end of the day. So all that canola oil was used to produce biodiesel which went to the US where you got the blender's tax credit. But this is over. And for a US producer who will get a production tax credit in the future, soybean oil is more interesting. So that leads already now to the fact that canola oil has a discount compared to soybean oil And more and more canola as a rape and also canola oil is now coming to Europe. So I agree, we should see higher rapeseed oil prices because of growing demand. But with the development in North America now, canola is limiting the increase in rapeseed oil prices. So to make a long story short, until new harvest, I don't expect higher rapeseed oil prices. It's limited by Canadian canola.

Thank you. Another question from Mr. Hesse on the guidance card. What was the impact of the US versus the now updated expectation of GAG certificate prices? And why hasn't the net depth changed? Is it less capex?

Well, Well, it's both, but I cannot give you a real figure how much impact was US and how much impact was, let's say, the greenhouse gas or the delay in the increase of greenhouse gas prices. Nevertheless, we made... sensitivity analysis and finally we came to the conclusion that there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and therefore we have to correct our guidance because until June 13th there is not a lot of time left. The question about the net debt is, I said it before, we are not under pressure. our European, our German biofuel business is still profitable. We are making money. And with this money, we are financing our growth projects. So if the cash flow doesn't come in, we are able to adjust our investment projects. So that means that is what we are doing. We are adjusting investment projects. We take a stronger focus on Cash flow management, Olaf mentioned it, and therefore, and I think that is also how we mean it, this is our limit, this 190 million, and we have an eye on it. It can change again if the recovery from the market will be faster, but our clear focus is on cash management. So we are able to adjust and shift investment projects a little bit more down the road.

Getting back to the U.S., when do you think that U.S. have a positive contribution again?

So the positive contribution will be not business year. So our focus is now that the positive contribution will come in the next business year, 2025, 2023. That's the focus. And we are very positive that we will be able to achieve that.

Also a question from Mr. Hesse on the balance sheet. What are the remaining credit lines available? Do you see any risk of additional equipment requirements in the next two years? And how is the CapEx plan or how many CapEx is left for the fiscal years 25 and 26?

Sorry, can you repeat that question?

I think we should put it in some... We slice it into pieces and we start with this one. What are the remaining credit lines available?

Well, this is something what we are not disclosing.

Okay. But do you see any risk of additional equipment requirements in the next two years?

I think equipment that we have to replace some equipment on our running plant, something like this. No. And then to bring the US fully under capacity? No. The investment in Nevada is done. Now the focus is to ramp it up. There will be some small additional costs. I mentioned it during the presentation, but the big amount of investment is done. Now we have to ramp it up. South Bend is an existing ethanol plant, which is producing ethanol in feed. There our focus is to bring it up, to bring it up back to nameplate capacity. And Welland, the biodiesel plant, was operating. Everywhere, especially in South Bend, in Welland, We have ideas and we have possibilities to implement our technologies, what we are using in our plants in Germany, but nothing has to be done. So that is what I mean. We are able to adjust and to delay investment ideas. The big investments are done and with our German sites, They are operating, they are always close to 100% full capacity. And it was important that we installed our filling stations because with the filling stations, now we are able to bring more molecules into the market to create more greenhouse gas savings if we are able to make money. So also this investment is done. So what is left is etinolysis. So ethanolysis is an investment for the future where the rapeseed mesile is still what we are selling right now as biodiesel will be the feedstock. So therefore, we expect that we are coming into new markets and realizing higher margins. But on the investment side, we are super relaxed and we can adjust it due to our cash flow situation.

Perfect. Thank you. Getting back to the GHG certificate prices. What price do you assume in your guidance today?

Olaf, I think this we are not going to disclose as well.

No, but it's close to the current market price more or less. Just to give you a quick.

Okay.

Okay. And about the price development. Well, it's clear why you believe that the GHG price should recover. Why aren't we seeing any improvement? And when do you expect an improvement?

As I said, I think the focus from the oil companies obligated parties are right now at 2024 obligation. So they are finalizing their book and they have time until the end of March. So now we expect after that has to be done. that during March prices will start to increase. And let's see where it is going to. Me personally, I expect that it will go beyond 200 euro per metric ton of CO2 savings. But let's see. But that is the reason. So the obligation and the challenge for 2025 is extraordinary. And That is our expectation that, or that is our, let's say, we think that right now their focus is mainly on finishing the 2024 balance sheet. And after that, then they will focus on 2025.

Perfect. We received a couple of questions from Hauken Aufheuser from the analyst Wunderlich. So I will here as well slice the questions a little bit. Should biodiesel make another strong EBITDA contribution in Q3? What about the rapeseed oil prices?

Well, the same. Yeah. Biodiesel always delivers very good results. This is already history. And as I said, I don't expect that rapeseed oil prices are further increasing. I think it will stay at that level because it is limited through the fact that canola, Canadian canola oil has a discount. So stable business, we have our margins and with the recovery, you know, if the greenhouse gas ticket prices will recover also the margins in ethanol and biodiesel have to recover. But if it's on the same level like Q2, I don't know.

That could be the next question as well. Do you expect EBITDA of the bioethanol and RNG segment to continue to gradually improve over the coming quarters?

Yes, that is our expectation that it will significantly improve. You know, biodiesel and ethanol is different. Biodiesel, we have the molecule, we sell it, we have their embedded greenhouse gas savings. which will be blended. On ethanol gas, it's different. We have ethanol, which is also blended, but gas goes to the filling stations. So there at the filling stations, we are creating the CO2 savings, the greenhouse gas ticket. So if we are not getting there sufficient money, we can reduce the greenhouse gas ticket raise and also steer a little bit the market. If it doesn't increase the greenhouse gas ticket prices, our renewable natural gas will go to other markets. We are not obliged to bring it into the transport sector and create greenhouse gas savings.

Again, a question from Tim for the US. How big was the negative EBITDA impact from South Bend and Nevada in Q2?

this we mentioned already olaf said it in q1 it was the the negative impact of the us ethanol segment in q1 was minus 5 million and in the second quarter it was minus nine and what would be the positive apathy a swing in euro million when nevada moves from the capacity 25 to 90 utilization well uh So our expectation to the overall ethanol contribution, it's not only Nevada, it's also South Bend both, is that we expect on the full utilization and every DA contribution of 30 to 35 million euros.

Perfect. Thank you. And how will the US tariffs affect your business in Canada?

OK, right now where there are no tariffs. But anyway, Canadian biodiesel will not continue to go to the US because of that change production tax credit versus blended tax credit. It makes no sense. The Canadian mandate for biodiesel in the past was fulfilled with US subsidized biodiesel. This is over and it has nothing to do with the tariffs. So if the tariff is coming, and we have already a plan, but it will not impact us because anyway, Canadian canola and Canadian biodiesel now will stay in Canada. The Canadian obligated parties now have to buy their biodiesel from Canadian producers. That's clear. And on the other side, the tariffs into the US, you know, they are not impacting us. We are a US producer. Maybe if Europe will then implement 25% tariff on US ethanol imports, you know, I don't know. There is a local market and there is an export market. And anyway, once we know more about tariffs, how it will be, in one quarter we are able to adjust our business.

Coming from the US and Canada to Germany, what would a CDU election victory mean for the biofuel regulation?

I don't know. Let's see. um the only thing what i can say is that during that uer fraud there was significant support from the cdu finally they were driving um yeah that everything came the spotlight so as i said we have an existing regulation where the targets are fine they are already ambitious and the next step will be the implementation of the red three and there i said it already was is our focus um we need more controls we need more safety that something like this what happened the distortion of the ticket prices and that. You know, it's strange. There is a European regulation which wants to ban palm oil until 2030. And now under the existing regulation, never came more palm oil as derivatives to the European market than any time before. So that shows how weak that regulation is if it's not controlled. But finally, it's good that it happened now. Many years we were arguing it, and I think that the CDU has, let's say, more open ears to listen to our arguments and to the measurements, which have to be taken anyway. Otherwise, you know, All the investments around renewables, and that's not only biofuels, are under danger. It will happen the same with chemistry. It will happen the same with steel, with aluminium. If there is no control where the product is coming from, fraud is happening. OK, continue.

I will continue. And actually, there's just the last question from the cell site analysts. But as a reminder, if there are follow-up questions from the analysts, do not hesitate to post them. So a follow-up question from Mr. Wunderlich, because he's actually saying he missed this information. What will be the total negative EBITDA contribution from the US in the fiscal year 2024-2025, including the need to replace the valves?

All I've mentioned it already, we said we have in Q1 minus five, in Q2 we have now minus nine. So altogether it is for the first half around 15 million. And this contribution, another minus 15 for the second half is our maximum what we expect. OK, so it will end up at hopefully under 30, but not over 30.

Perfect, I'm just checking the last time the question three have received. There are more questions indeed, but actually we are running out of time. So we will collect all the further question handed over to then we can make them sure that they will be answered afterwards. So at this a little bit, out of time, running over time already. I just want to say thank you for your insightful question and a big thank you to you, Mr. Sauter and Mr. Trüber. And to all participants, we appreciate your time and interest in VIRBIO. We would be very grateful if you would share your feedback with VIRBIO and our research team as well. And for this reason, you will find a short email in your inbox already. And I just posted a link for a short survey. So at this moment, from my side, have a great day. And we're looking forward to seeing you again the next time. And for this, please check our research hub at research-hub.de. Goodbye and take care.

Yes. But I hope I can make a final sentence. Harry, thank you very much for coordinating all the questions. I think that was our best call ever. You made it great. Thank you very much. We were able and we see it also now that some questions are repeating and the rest should go to Alina. The only thing what I want to say at the end is I hope that we were able to transport the messages The measures on the supply side and the demand side are done. There is this regulation which was made in November last year. China is doing something. Indonesia is doing something. So nothing is necessary really now to come back to a reasonable market. We just need a little bit time now that all these measurements become true and Saying that, thank you very much for everybody who was joining that call. Thank you very much again, Harry, for you. And if you need more information, please contact Alina and she will be happy to serve you. So thank you very much. Have a nice day. Hearing you again on our Q3 call. Bye bye. We hope so. Goodbye and take care.