Vallourec S.A.

Hello and welcome to the Valorrec Q3 and I-Month 2024 Results Conference Call. Please note this conference is being recorded and during the conference your line is being listened only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions towards the end of the presentation and this can be done by typing star 1 on your deaf-one keypad. Today's call will be chaired by Mr. Philippe Guillemot, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, as well as Mr. Sacha Bibair, Chief Financial Officer. And I've had the call over to Mr. Connor Lyna, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for Valorrec's third quarter and first nine-months, 2024, results presentation. I'm Connor Lyna, Vice President of Investor Relations at Valorrec. I'm joined today by Valorrec's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Philippe Guillemot, and Valorrec's Chief Financial Officer, Sacha Bibair. Before we begin our presentation, I would like to note that this conference call will be recorded and a replay will be available following the call. You can find the audio webcast on our Investor Relations website. The presentation slides referred to during this call are available for download here as well. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements. Future results may differ materially from statements or projections made on today's call. The forward-looking statements and risk factors that could affect those statements are referenced at the beginning of our slide presentation. These are also included in our Universal Registration document filed with the French Financial Markets Regulator, the AMF. This presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to Philippe Guillemot.

Thank you, Connor. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us to discuss Valorrec's third quarter, 2024, results. Before proceeding, let me draw your attention to slide two, where you can consult our safe statement. Today's agenda is on slide three. I will start with the highlights of the third quarter of 2024, followed by an update on the market and commercial environment. Sasha will then take you through our third quarter numbers, and I will finish with our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2020 call. Let's look at the highlights of the third quarter of 2024 on slide five. In the third quarter, we maintain a healthy EBITDA margin, similar to what we delivered over the past several quarters. This was driven by ongoing threats in the international OCTG market and the benefits of the new Valorrec plan and in spite of softness in the US OCTG market. Based on our results in the third quarter and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we reiterate our full year EBITDA outlook of 800 to 850 million euros. Fourth quarter group volumes and EBITDA will increase versus Q3 due to contributions from the US and international tubes. We continue to generate significant cash flow. Our total cash generation was 130 million euros in the quarter, allowing us to reduce net debt for the eighth quarter interval. Since 2022, the new Valorrec plan has enabled the group to reduce its net debt by more than 1.2 billion euros. We were pleased to announce last week the exit from the Save World plan implemented in 2021, a major step in demonstrating the significant progress we have made since our financial restructuring. We have achieved our target balance sheet and are well ahead of our plan to reach net zero by year end 2025. Therefore, we confirm that the total cash generation in the third quarter and in future quarters will be subject to the 80 to 100% payout ratio we announced at last year's capital markets day. We plan to announce a dividend proposal for our 2025 AGM with our full year 2024 results communication. Beyond these solid results, in the third quarter, we announced our first strategic acquisition in nearly a decade with the acquisition of Thermotizer Brazil, which will strengthen our position in the offshore line pipe market. Operationally, we continue to progress our optimization program in Brazil and are very encouraged with the results so far. We also recently announced a change in our organizational structure with the creation of a new operations department and the promotion of Bertrand Frischmann to chief operations officer. This move enhances the progress we have already made in making Valerac an efficient, globally integrated operation. In tubes, we continue to experience robust demand in international markets. In the third quarter, this was particularly clear in some of our key offshore markets. We announced two major awards in Brazil and Angola and our opportunities both on and offshore remain robust. In the US, we have observed a recent improvement in the OTG market with both a significant recovery in our order intake and an increase in spot market pricing. I will provide more color on these points later. Let's move to slide 6 to discuss our acquisition of Thermotite do Brasil. This 7.5 million USD acquisition will give Valerac access to an increasingly essential technology for deep water line pipe markets where we tend to focus our line pipe activities. Thermotite is a strong fit with our portfolio and is well aligned with the value over volume strategy. Pricing for thermal insulation tends to be roughly equal to that of the bare pipe and comes with accretive EBITDA margins versus our group average. The deal is also compelling economically as we have executed it with an accretive transaction multiple, have clear geographic synergy and this solution has the potential to be offered on a significant amount of our existing line pipe volumes. Moving to slide 7. I want to step back for a minute and discuss how we are progressing on the key objectives of the new Valerac plan. Recall that we had two primary objectives as part of this plan. Crisis proofing the business and delivering best in class profitability. With our significant delivery, balance sheet refinancing and our move to low cost production hubs, we have achieved our objective of significantly crisis proofing our business. Here we look at the second of these objectives, delivering best in class profitability. On the left, we show the EBITDA pattern gap that we have historically experienced versus our peer. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, when we announced the new Valerac plan, I am pleased to say that we have made significant strides in eliminating this gap. Reflecting on the drivers of this train, we have done very good work in raising our average value of the new Valerac plan, in our new strategy and our enhanced pricing policy. We continue to see opportunities on this front by further penetrating high value markets, for example, via our premierization program in China. On the other side of the equation, we have executed major cost savings already, but we still have opportunities on this front. Last quarter, we allowed our optimization plan in Brazil. This program will significantly contribute to closing the residual gap. Beyond this, we have significant potential to further integrate and optimize our business. We continue to push towards working as one global organization and we can continue to improve our data and process integration. Putting it all together, we are not finished with our drive to improve our profitability. On the right hand side, you will see a new metric that we increasingly use in our internal steering, return on invested capital. We are not only working to optimize profit and cash flows, but to optimize the way that we manage the capital employed in our business. Since day one of our transformation, we focused on working capital and improving the cash cycle of our business. Optimizing the invested capital, however, also means making decisions to scale back in some areas, like our choice to close the plug mill in Brazil that we announced last quarter. It also drives our investment decisions, for example, our successful capacity expansion in Saudi Arabia, our capital project that will extend all the potential to make critical high value equipment like our heat treatment and premium threading operations. As we move further and further in the new value journey, we continue to find new opportunities to mobilize idle capital for the benefit of all stakeholders. Now, let's move to our usual discussion of the commercial environment. On slide nine, we start on the US OCTG market. The horizontal recount stabilized in the third quarter as both oil and gas directed activity leveled out. The imports have continued to moderate versus the first quarter level, especially when we look at the seamless market. There has been continued action by US trade officials to preserve fair competition in the US OCTG market, and this has driven an ongoing tightening in industry inventory levels. With demand stabilizing and supply tightening, we have seen clear signs of improvement in the US business. Over the past several months, we have seen orders from our customers when in excess of the levels we saw at mid-year. In particular, we have experienced strong demand for our high torque connections, which are specially designed for longer lateral welds. This increased demand will support our volume in the first quarter. As a result of this positive market trend, we have seen spot pricing rise in both September and October. Turning to slide 10, let's discuss the international OCTG markets. The offshore and onshore recount has been effectively flat since mid-2023, and market pricing has followed roughly the same trend.

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will recall that we have been significantly outperforming both the trend and level of international market prices with our -over-volume strategy. We have continued to see pricing on our new orders remain at a robust level for the past several quarters. Our portfolio is very well positioned for the current market environment, as our premium tubes are essential for gas drilling activity in the Middle East and for all key offshore markets, but particularly those in South America, Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico, which will largely serve from our international export hubs. Based on what we see today, we think these robust market conditions will persist for the foreseeable future. Let me wrap up the comments on our tubes business on slide 11. We announced two meaningful contracts in the quarter, one for Total Energy for its Camino development in Angola, and one for Petrobras for its Sepia II and Atapu II projects. Both contracts recognize the significant value that Valvoic delivers to our customers and capitalizes on our ability to offer both premium products and differentiated services globally. In addition, the U.S. market is showing clear signs of improvement. Our order intake has been strong recently, and according to PipeLogic's distributor sentiment has increased to levels not since, since mid-2022. We are a bit on the outlook for the U.S. market, but remain focused on executing the value over volume strategy. Because we are receiving orders in excess of our capacity, we have chosen to focus on improving pricing and mix rather than react too quickly with capacity increases. We are also progressing on our optimization program in Brazil. We have implemented a deep focus throughout the organization. Our labor cost savings targets are confirmed. In short, Brazil still has significant potential to grow its contribution to group results over the coming years, which will support our plan to improve our margins and return capital. Let's move on to our mine and forest segment on slide 12. As you are likely aware, the global iron ore market softened in the third quarter. This translated in both lower price and lower sales volume. Our production sold in the third quarter was below our expectation at 1.3 million tons, which was down slightly versus the second quarter. Based on the ongoing softness in the export market, as well as the effects of the rainy season in Brazil, we are lowering our expectations for our full year mine production to approximately 5 million tons, down from 6 million tons previously. Despite this, I am pleased with the progress we have made in our phase 1 mine extension. We have now gained access to the higher quality reserves targeted by this project. Therefore, at current iron ore prices, we expect to deliver full year EBDA slightly below 100 million euros of EBDA in our mine and forest segment. Thank you for your attention. I will now hand the call over to Sacha to comment on our financial results.

Thank you, Philipp. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. Continuing on page 14, our Q3 results were solid when it comes to profitability, while marking the expected low point in terms of salute EBDA in this year, when expected EBDA increase in Q4. In Q3, following a reduction in tonnage sold, as well as a slight decrease in the average realized price, revenues in EBDA declined year over year, even though costs were lower across all categories. Against our own expectations, Q3-24 was a bit shy due to lower volumes and price in the mine, but also due to some technical factors like FX and slightly higher costs for our management equity program. Nevertheless, we reported a grew at the EA margin of close to 19%. We have once again done very well on the cash side with a 124 million reduction in net debt quarter over quarter. Tubes volumes on page 15 reduced to 292 kilotons in Q3. Some of the sequential reduction relates to the summer pricing environment in the US, which led us to be more cautious on accepting demand. We expect Q4 volumes overall to be stronger once again. We continue to manage our portfolio with the highest discipline, leading to higher realized prices and margins over the cycle. When you look at our average selling price year over year, you will see that we have largely compensated the significant price decreases we have faced in the US with higher prices elsewhere. On page 16, you can see the result of our value over volume strategy, as well as the continuing efficiency measures. The tubes margin and the EBITDA pattern has stayed flat year over year. Let me speak about the mine and forest on page 17. The operating environment in Q3 was challenging, mainly as a result of the economic situation in China. The price of iron ore declined and seeped to China, impacting our customers who are generally export oriented in Greece. Reducing their margins. In combination with high inventories in China, demand dropped and also we sold less tons than expected. While demand was lower generally, it was especially pronounced for lower quality ore. Therefore, we concentrated our production on highest qualities, somewhat offsetting the impact from the market price and lower volumes. Turning to page 18. While Q2 was significantly influenced by effects related to the refinancing, Q3 is more normal. We did however realize some disposal gains related to equipment sales in Germany following the dismantling of our site that also supported cash flow. Overall and similar to cash flow, we are building a track record of positive net income progression. On page 19. Our third quarter cash flow came in very strong with total cash generation of 130 million for an effective reduction of 124 million. This development was supported by a sizable release of working capital, especially related to receivables. In addition, we realized some equipment sales in Germany as I've mentioned a minute ago. Looking at page 20, this strong cash flow has further decreased our leverage and added to the quality. Net debt has now decreased for eight quarters in a row. Philip, I'm handing back to you.

Thank you, Sasha. Let's turn to slide 22 to discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. Starting with our tubes business, we expect higher volumes in the fourth quarter due to an increase in both US and international shipments. Our full year outlook is unchanged as we continue to see a strong international market environment offset by the weaker US market we have experienced year to date. Obviously, the recent change in market price in the US will have more of an impact in 2025 than in 2024. In our mine and forest business, we expect volume to decline in the fourth quarter due to both the rainy season impact as well as soft export market conditions. Full year production soul is now expected to be slightly more than five million tons with EBDA slightly below the 100 million euro level, assuming iron ore prices consistent with today's level. Group level, we expect EBDA will increase in the fourth quarter due to the higher tubes sales volume. For the full year, we reiterate our outlook for EBDA to run between 800 and 850 million euros. Finally, we expect net debt to be broadly stable in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter level. Based on the full year cash flow guidance we provided last quarter, you can see that we will spend higher capex, restructuring and financial cash out in the fourth quarter, so this will more than offset the increase in EBDA we anticipate. Overall, second half total cash generation will be strong, driven by the results we delivered in the third quarter. To conclude on slide 23. While we have many successes to celebrate, we remain focused on improving our profitability and return on capital versus our peers, regardless of market conditions. Secondly, our market environment remains strong with the international OCTJ market stable at the healthy level and the US showing clear signs of improvement. Finally, we plan to announce a dividend proposal for our 2025 AGM with our full year 2024 results communication in February. Thank you for your attention. Sacha and I are now ready to take your questions.

Thank you very much, Mr. Gilmour. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star 1 on the telephone keypad and just make sure that your mute function is not activated in order to let you signal each equipment. Our very first question today is coming from Kevin Roger of Kepler Chevrolet. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the time. I would have two questions if I may please. The first one will be on the shareholder remuneration. Over the past few months, we discussed a lot about the possibility around buyback because you did not have the possibility to implement everything on dividend before next AGM. So first question in a sense, is buyback an old solution because of all the new tax environment that we have in France or is it still an opportunity that you will consider? And the second follow up on shareholder remuneration, when you say that you will decide on a dividend at the full earnings, will it be a decision in regards of the Q3 2024 cash because Q4 will be flat or also considering the 25 expectations that you have internally on cash flow generation? That will be the first element on the shareholder remuneration. And the second one, if we had to project a bit of sales early next year, you mentioned in the different remarks that US volumes have picked up that would be positive in Q1 2025 deliveries. Pricing is increasing. That international activities are expected to remain robust and let's say, flattish. So is it fair to assume that Q1 ABDA should also improve compared to Q4, please?

Thank you, Kieran, for your questions. So shareholder return, yes. Obviously, we never exclude any ways to return total excess cash to shareholders. You're right. I think there is obviously still an unknown on how share buyback will be taxed in the future in France. And in our case, we know that if what has been announced is implemented, we would be severely taxed. So obviously, we can obviously see this as a way to return. Nevertheless, what we want with our commission is just to confirm what we said last quarter. There will be a return starting from Q3. I think every total cash generation will be returned to shareholders between the payout of 80% to 100%. At minimum, and you're right, announcing in February the dividend amount that will be to be approved at the AGM means that at minimum it will be what will be available after Q3, which is fairly good. And Q4, as you said, expected flattest net debt is concerned. So that's a good reading. But again, we talk about we go step by step. You know that we are very conservative people, very serious on our balance sheet management. So it's a step by step process. If you put things in perspective, in less than three years, we have gone from a quasi bankruptcy to return to shareholders. And we want sustainable returns to shareholders. As far as the profile of the sales and the EBITDA, I won't obviously give you any guidance for Q1 and EBITDA next year, as you can expect. It's true that it's nice to see that US volume are picking up in Q4 and likely hopefully the same in Q1, we expect. And for prices, what we book today will be the price of our invoicing into one next year. So we are a bit on a U-shaped profile, if I could say so, between the end of this year and the beginning of this year as far as the activities concerned.

OK, thanks

a lot. Thank you very much, Sir. Our next question will be coming from Daniel Thompson of Exan. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, I know it's early days from the US election, but I was just wondering on how you're seeing, if we have increased trade restrictions there, where does the exports from Asia that aren't finding their way into the market, are they then finding their way to the Middle East and other regions and maybe causing some downside risk to pricing in international? And then on the US market, just a clarification. We've obviously heard a lot about the efficiency gains that operators are making. If we had a flat rig count next year, what do you think that would mean for end market demand in the US and your volumes there?

Well, as we commented, we have seen order intake increasing in the last few months, and this is even before the election. So I think we're already on a positive momentum, both on volume and pricing in the US. What we sell on the domestic market in the US is produced in the US. So obviously we are in a great position to benefit from any trade barriers on the US market. And by the way, you have noticed that there's even increased in Q3 for imports from Thailand, as an example. And even Korea has reduced its imports. So for us, all this is a good news. Will operators increase production as a consequence investment? We see there is maybe one area where we could see a change. It could be on gas directed activity, which is a portion of our activity and obviously in Gulf of Mexico. But more to come anywhere. We are. Yeah, we only see positive news in the current momentum on the US market.

Maybe, Daniel, I can I can add to your question regarding what happens to volumes from Asia or wherever that may not find their home in the US. I just remind you that the mix and the requirements for US onshore are generally different to the requirements we serve elsewhere, which is maybe offshore related. So it has a different complexity. So I don't think that there will be a competition one for one when it comes to your efficiency question and the scenario of having a flat flat recount. I would just highlight that the efficiencies are generally realized above ground. That said, longer laterals are generally a positive for our business. We see that in the specific demand we have for our products with high torque capabilities, which is something that we expect to increase going forward.

OK, that's also correct. Thank you. Thank you very much, Mr. Thompson. Ladies and gentlemen, once again, if you have any questions or follow up questions, please press star one. When I move to Jean-Luc Romain of CIC Market Solutions, please go ahead.

Good morning. You were mentioning longer laterals. We also see horizontal wells making U-turns to cover more ground. How much of the increased demand do you believe is linked to the increasing lateral length of the wells compared to the number of wells which are drilled?

Yes, I know the whole industry was very much focused on recounts, which may be less and less a good proxy for our activity. What matters is obviously the tons of tubes and obviously the value of the tubes which are needed for our operators. But longer laterals is good news for us because it requires more tons. And on top, as Sasha mentioned, high torque connections, which obviously we have and we continue to develop. So it's even improving the mix. So,

yeah. I believe that would answer the question. Okay, next question will be coming from Jamie Franklin of Jeffreys. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just two quick ones from me. So firstly, if there's just any updates on the disposals. And second question just on the mine, so the phase one extension, which sounds like it's progressing well, is the expectation still for that to provide an incremental 20 to 25 million EBITDA next year? And would the full impact of that kick in from 2025? Thanks.

On the disposal, so progress is still going on. I think I have no more comment to make. I think you can understand the discussion between Valuhegg, the city of Dusseldorf and potential developers. So I won't comment on these discussions, but they are going on. Keep in mind that the hat land is a large property, 900,000 square meters. So obviously, it's more difficult. Obviously, it's a more difficult sales process than the one of Merheim, which was executed last year. And we are obviously paying careful attention to obviously the value at which we will be able to dispose of the sensor. As far as phase one of the mine is concerned, yes, for sure, I think the extension is progressing well. The good news is that our assumption on the quality of the iron ore we can access to is more than confirmed, which is good. But as we said to comment our Q3 numbers, we are in the overall iron ore market environment with less shipment because of less demand. And on top, the iron ore price has decreased. So obviously, this obviously will lead to a likely reset of our expectations for next year. But I won't comment more on next year.

Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Frank. Mr. Franklin, ladies and gentlemen, once again, if you have any questions, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We will now move to Baptiste LeBac of Adobe HF. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have one question dedicated to disposals of equipment that you mentioned and registered in Q3. I know it's quite complicated, but in Q4, will you have, let's say, the same steel of impact or you already sold the equipment that were on sale? Thank you for your return. Thank you. OK, Sacha.

Baptiste, I would say possible, but on a minor level.

OK. Thank you, Sacha.

Welcome. Thank you, Mr. LeBac. Ladies and gentlemen, as a final reminder, if you have any questions, do please press star one at this time. Thank you. OK, we do not appear to have any further questions coming in at this time. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Guillemot for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you again for joining us for today's call. I just would like to leave you with the following thoughts. We continue to have significant opportunities to change ValuX for the better. Our core markets are strong. We are pleased to be in a position to distribute our excess cash flow to our shoulders, and we confirm our intention to pay what will be ValuX's first dividend in 10 years in 2025. Thank you again, Operator. You may close the call.

Thank you very much. Thank you, Mr. LeBac. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your time. See you next time. Have a good day and goodbye.