Alleima AB (publ)

Hi everyone and welcome to the presentation of the third quarter results for Alema. My name is Emily Alm and I am head of investor relations. I'm joined here today by Göran Björkman, president and CEO, and Olof Bengtsson, CFO. So Göran and Olof will take you through the results and then we will have a Q&A session. And as always, you can ask your questions through the conference call and you can also write them in the field below the webcast. And the presentation can be downloaded on aleima.com. So, as always, we put safety first, and that's a top priority for us. I trust that you know the safety routines of where you are located, and we know what to do if something happens here. So, with that, I would like to hand over to you, Göran.

thank you emily and also a warm welcome from my side to this quarter three presentation and let's start with the highlights i think we had an overall strong quarter three we are growing order intake and we're growing revenue and we have a continued solid order backlog organic order intake growth was 16 percent and the quarter is strong The solid backlog, of course, makes us confident on near future deliveries. Revenue growth from 5% organically was driven by both Tube and Cantal. Looking at the earnings, we have significant earnings growth, plus 80%, which of course means a very strong leverage in the quarter. We'll come back on that. Main reasons for the strong results were Of course, higher revenues as such, but also positive product mix, both in the tube and in the Cantal division. And we continued our price increases, which continued to offset the cost inflation. The margin on 7.6% is a record high level for the third quarter. Quarter three is normally, I would say, always lower due to seasonality. And last but not least, a very strong cash flow in the quarter. We continue our strategy execution where I think the investment in China and that sustainability trend continue to generate business for us are good examples. And I would say in general, I would like to comment that it is the segments that are strong in the quarter also are the ones that we focus in our growth strategy, which of course is nice then. Moving into sustainability, we'll start with operations. I think sustainability and operations continue to make an overall positive impact. Starting with safety, we have increased our focus on safety and there are a lot of important initiatives ongoing. There is a slight improvement in the quarter. But I think it's important not to see this as a campaign. This is a long-term commitment, and it takes time to improve safety culture. For the second quarter in a row, the level of recycled steel decreased. The main reason is due to our shift towards more special alloys, for which recycling is somewhat more challenging. I'd like to comment that we have had some questions regarding our target on 83% recycled steel. Questions like if that really is ambitious. I think this shows that it is more challenging than you might think only looking at the chart. We continue to reduce our CO2 emissions once again to record low level. However, I would say quarter three is normally the lowest level due to lower production volumes. And if I look at CO2 efficiency measured as CO2 emission per produced ton, the development is more flattish. And we continue to increase the share of female managers. This is, of course, only one perspective of the diversity inclusion work, but it is an important one. As noted on the previous slide, I am pleased with our operation improvements on sustainability, but as I have concluded several times, our largest impact on global sustainability is through our product offers, improving customers' processes, products and applications. Global trends like electrification and the shift to fossil-free energy are trends that are driving our business opportunities. To share a couple of examples. Solar industry is growing rapidly and we have a strong momentum towards this industry in the industrial heating segment within Kantal. So in this application is both electrification and renewable energy in the same application for us. We also received a significant pilot order to an Asian steel industry. where our high-power flow heaters will heat up gas in the customer's last furnace process and reduce carbon emission, and thereby improve CO2 efficiency for that customer. We also communicated an investment in China, where we will do a growth investment on the tube site in China, So this is a new factor on the already existing tube site in Xinjiang. And I'd like to comment on the strategy we have. The strategy we have in China has been really successful. We are in China for the Chinese market. The strategy is based on locally produced premium products. And this has given us, looking back in numbers, both good growth and good profit. The market for chemical and petrochemical segment is growing at good pace in the APEC region and especially in China. To continue our growth journey, we are investing in more capacity. And of course, at the same time, we are adding capability to become even more relevant in the market. We are, for instance, increasing our size ranges. We will go to larger sizes. And we're also adding capabilities for the local hydrogen market, where we see a lot of growth opportunities. So it's an investment on 250 million SEC, and we will ramp up production from 2025. So let's dig a little bit deeper into the market development. I would say overall, it's a pretty similar view on the market as we had in quarter two. It is a mixed picture looking at our different segments. In general, the softer demand in some customer segments was also this quarter mitigated by long-term positive trends that plays in our favor for other segments. Orders grew in all regions compared to last year. The underlying demand in Asia is strong. We have an order intake increased by 32%. Europe orders increased 1% year-on-year, but the market is soft for the low refined side. North America increased 39%. That is driven by nuclear, oil and gas and aerospace, but other market segments is a little bit more softer in North America. So let's start looking at the segments where we previously commented on the softer market development. This is mainly our short cycle business and mostly for the low refined products, but also a part of our application to mixed business and then mainly North America. So starting with industrial, demand was more flat on a sequential basis, but the year-on-year decline in all regions for the low refined products. It's not a significant year-on-year drop though, but it's somewhat down. Consumer, Demand declined year on year, but more flattish sequentially. Strip products such as compressor steel and knife steel is lower, while the heating materials part in the control for the consumer segment recovered slightly. Overall demand is stabilizing, but on low levels. Chemical and petrochemical, roughly on par with last year. Demand in Asia remains solid. But we clearly see destocking effects at distributors and overall software marketing conditions in North America. Europe, I would say, is still a bit uncertain, but demand is not weakening anymore. Other customer segments are strong and with a continued positive outlook, starting with industrial heating. I mean, there is a clear electrification trend in industries. We note the stable development on high level overall. And as I already mentioned, we received several significant orders, mainly for the solar, but also for the steel industry. Demand for other segments like semiconductor and glass, as well as sales related to maintenance, are somewhat softer. Oil and gas, strong investment, continue to materialize. And the market demand is very robust. And we have booked several, both OCTG and ability order in the quarter. And the market outlook and the product list remain solid. Mining construction demand stabilized, but still some uncertainties. We continue to see impact from stock adjustments at some customers, but I would say the underlying demand remains solid. Power generation, which is our nuclear business, remains solid, with an interesting product list. This industry is then moving slowly, as you well know. Transportation, year-on-year increase, continuous strong aerospace, in particular in titanium tubing. And medical, here we see a strong positive underlying development. We have strong momentum for the full product portfolio, and also like the comment that we have successful new product launches that are expected to continue to support the growth. Within the hydrogen renewable energy segment, we noted continued momentum related to hydrogen refueling station, and also continued acceleration globally is expected in the long term. However, coated strip steel for our fuel cells were a bit slower, mainly due to some ramp-up delays at customers. So, in summary, we saw a mixed picture, good momentum in some segments and software in others. And again, I think our diverse customer segment exposure is a clear strength for Alayma. Look at order intake and revenue. We had an order intake of 4.6 billion in the quarter. This is a good absolute level. This resulted in a flat organic order intake growth for the rolling 12-month period and an order intake growth of plus 16% in the quarter. Total revenue of 4.6 billion resulting in an organic order revenue growth of plus 5%. Book the bill 100% in the quarter and 108% for the rolling 12-month period. We are consuming backlog in some of the segments, like industrial and consumer. This has some negative effect on sales, while we continue building backlog in other segments, like oil and gas, nuclear, petrochemical, among others. The diverse exposure is a clear strength, and it makes us confident about the near-term deliveries, and we have a positive view on continued revenue growth going forward. And if we look at the components a little more deeper in the order intake and revenue, I think it's clear now that the impact from metal prices and currency is lower than in recent quarters. looking at the rolling 12 month it's the orange line you see in the graphs order intake turning positive again a revenue development also positive on a rolling basis and again that clock is solid uh absolute levels are high olaf will dig even more into details here earnings I mean, very strong earnings. We had an adjusted EBIT on 350 million. This is 80% more than quarter three last year. And the margin on 7.6%, a very strong quarter three margin. Main reasons for the improved results were higher revenues as such, also positive product mix both in Tube and in Cantal, and which is, of course, very important. We continue with our good price execution. more than well compensating for inflation. This, of course, leads to very strong leverage in the quarter, actually as high as 82%. Maybe we should look more on the year-to-date number of 24%. Main reasons for the strong leverage is it's more oil and gas. It's a very strong result from Cantal and also somewhat weak comparables. The leverage was not that fantastic quarter three last year. Those are the main reasons for the very high leverage. I'd also like to comment on the production-related issues that we commented on in the second quarter. I would say issues solved regarding the nuclear part, somewhat improved in the transportation part but not yet back on track that will take i would say another couple of quarters and the negative leverage impact we had from from inventory reduction in quarter two those are much lower uh we're of course happy with this strong margin improvement versus last year we're aiming to constantly improve but uh we will of course not be able to have this strong year-on-year improvement every quarter Reported EBIT on 26 million, margin of 4.5%, so the impact on changes in Metaprice was negative on 144 million. Very strong cash flow in the quarter, free operating cash from 812 million, due to both higher earnings and reduced net working capital. Cash flow is normally higher in the second half of the year. So let's look a little bit deeper into the divisions, starting with Tube. Overall, Tube is performing well. I think it shows good momentum with an order growth on 26% plus on low comparables, I need to say, giving a solid order backlog. We see water momentum in oil and gas, in nuclear, chemo, petrochem, and transportation. And a softer demand in the low refined part of industrial segment, but also chemo, petrochem in North America. Revenue growth of 4% organically. Once again, oil and gas, chemical and petrochemical, and also nuclear. Strong margin and also significant earnings improvement with the same comments as for a layman total. High revenues, positive mix and price increases, and price increases which more than well compensated for the cost inflation. And as already mentioned, the issues with the nuclear now okay, while transportation improving, but not yet back on track. We have some under-absorption effects on lower volumes in industrial, as well as chemical and petrochemical in North America. That could impact going forward, but we are adjusting both capacity and costs to adapt to that. Currency had a negative impact of 63 million, mainly due to hedge effects. Olof will describe that more in detail. Cantal, well... A super strong quarter from the Cantal division. Growth from underlying tailwinds, medical in particular, but also positive from the electrification trend. Industrial heating was stable on high levels with some mixed signals. Orders from solar and steel, that was the ones that drove the order intake, while other industries were a bit slower. Consumer segments stabilized on low levels. Strong organic revenue growth, plus 30%. I think broad-based positive development with medical, again, a record high revenue level. The margin. 18.6%, that is a very high and very strong number, especially for the third quarter. This is due to high increased revenue, strong product mix, and price increases. And the mix with higher share of solar is important, but it's also higher share of medical as such for the total that sort of plays in our favor. You could say maybe that all stars were aligned for Cantal this quarter. It's a new margin level established. However, do not extrapolate this year-on-year improvement going forward. Strip. Well, it continued to have a soft market demand, and they have a deep order intake decline, mainly for the consumer segment. The weakened demand was a combination of both lower consumption as such, but also significant stock reductions at our customers. This resulted in an organic order intake of minus 25%. STRIP is consuming backlog while the low order intake has a negative impact on revenue with an organic revenue growth of minus 3%. I think one thing that is important that we continue to ensure price leadership also in this downturn, something I think STRIP is doing well. So instead of fighting with prices, we focus on adjusting capacity and costs. The full impact from these mitigating actions are not yet fully visible. Then I'll leave the word to you, Olof.

Thank you, Jara. Yeah, let's turn to the financial summary then for the quarter and year to date. And if we start with the order intake and revenue bridge to the upper right in the slide, we see a total development of order intake of 19% and 8% for the revenues coming from an organic growth in the order intake of 16%. 5% on the revenues structure, more or less the same on both. That comes from our acquisitions. It's the endosmart acquisition in the medical segment, and the Söderfors acquisition in the tube division. Currency, slightly positive, coming from the weak SEC during the period, and alloys due to lower metal prices, mainly than nickel, at minus 1% for the period. And going down to the big table, we see the EBIT improving from last year, going from 4.6 percentage points or 195 million to 350 million, so 7.6%. So a very, very strong quarter, being the third quarter. Metal prices, the effect is more or less on the same level as last year. However, performance is better, so the reported EBIT comes out much better. And again, the metal price effect, that is the effect we calculate as an estimate how changing metal prices are affecting our performance. A sales with an alloy surcharge has a timeline between fixing of the raw material cost in the product and the selling price to the customer. Going further down, net financial items comes out at minus 15 million for the quarter, which is a considerable change from the same period last year. And the main impact here comes from the fact that we have gradually introduced so-called hedge accounting in our books, meaning that we treat value changes in derivatives differently. They are booked to a hedge reserve instead of being booked directly to the result and then recycled to the result as the hedged item materializes. So expect lower swings here. Of course, the finance net is also affected by other finance-related costs, like costs for our pension liability, leasing-related interest costs, and also interest income from our cash deposits, as we now are in a very strong cash position. The normal tax rate comes out at 24.4 for the first nine months. I prefer to look at the full period as a single quarter might be affected by single tax items. A very strong operating cash flow in the quarter and year-to-date. A substantial improvement from last year when we were impacted a lot by the high metal prices in the early part of 2022. That spilled over into the third quarter in 2022. And the year-to-date cash conversion is approximately 80%. The adjusted earnings per share, fully diluted, improved substantially. And the improvement comes, of course, from the better earnings, underlying EBIT, and also the lower finance debt, of course. So that's a very high increase. Going to the bridge analysis, how do we explain the improvement of 155 million, going from the 195 to the 350 million? and the very good operating leverage. Some factors behind that. First of all, it's successful price increases. We have been successful since the beginning of the year. I should also mention that in 2022 and in the beginning of 2023, we also had energy and freight surcharges. Those are not present at all to the same extent any longer, as energy prices are lower. And also supply chain is in better shape than before. But overall, we have been successful in compensating for higher inflation. This is also contributing a much better product mix. coming out in these 190 millions. We also have performance improvements. Göran mentioned that we have a much lower under-absorption of costs when reducing inventories. Coming into the third quarter, we had, and normally we release quite a lot of inventories in the third quarter. However, if you remember from our Q2 presentation, we had managed to release quite a lot of inventories already there. So a lot, we still have under absorption of as we're reducing stocks, but to a lot longer than an over year. Currencies, a negative effect of minus 32. And remember that this is a breach effect. We had quite positive effects in the same quarter last year. And we have had positive, translation and transaction effects. However, companies have been bought by hedges, and of course, compared to last year, we also have to take into account the possible effects that we had in the third quarter of 2022. Structure, that comes from our acquisitions, the acquisitions that I just mentioned, and a small negative number coming mainly from the fact that it's Lower activity during the quarter, but that is in line with our plans, and in line with the production plans for the units. So in total, a healthy increase in EBIT, and very good leverage development at 82%. Tube is at more than 100%, Cantal is at 58%, and SRIP is in negative territory. If you remember last quarter, we had a leverage of plus 10, and now we have 82. So, of course, it's difficult maybe to calibrate the leverage from quarter to quarter. So my recommendation would be to look at the year-to-date leverage, which is around 24% for the full nine-month period, to get a better understanding what we think is a good level on the leverage over time. Going to the balance sheet, capital efficiency, we had a net working capital position of 7.1 billion, so it should be billion, in the quarter. That is more or less the same as last year. However, we have a sequential decrease in our net working capital. We have released about 600 million compared to the last quarter. On the inventories, we have done both in volumes and value, helped by the lower metal prices, but also from a very strong inventory management in the divisions. In addition to this, we also have good collections of receivables, coming from a strong invoicing in the second quarter. And as a percentage of revenues, we come out at 40.2%. That is the same number as last year. might seem high on the high side. We're normally at closer to 30% in a normal quarter. However, in the third quarter, we normally have a lot lower invoicing. That, of course, affects the number. And if you look back a few years, you see that obviously we have low inventory volumes. And we have low metal prices. However, the main explanation for the higher end networking capital is the currency rates. Dollars and euros are affecting our networking capital items. Capital employed decreased to 15.6 billions from 16.4 last year. Rose decreased to 12.5 from 14.6 in the quarter. This comes mainly from the fact that in the rose calculation, we have the metal price effect included. So we're looking at the, so to say, the unadjusted EBIT, and that was higher in the preceding period. Going to the cash flow. Cash flow from the operating activities, according to the RFS statement, is 949 millions versus minus 297 last year. Looking at the free operating cash flow, it increased to 812 millions from negative 3 to 3, coming then from the strong earnings, the decrease in the networking capital, and CapEx coming up to more normalized levels this year. If we go to the capital structure then, we now have a net cash position. Net debt is negative 293. That means a net cash position. Our net debt equity ratios are well below our targets. And the The change, so to say, in the quarter comes from the strong cash flows. But it's also aided by a net pension liability that has decreased due to increased long-term discount rates in Sweden. So that has an effect. And from a payment readiness perspective, we still have an unutilized revolving credit facility of 3 billion. So a very strong cash position for the group at the end of the quarter. If we look at the guidance that we gave ahead of quarter three, it looks like this. We guided 800 millions in full year capex. In the quarter, we came out at 187 millions. We'll come back to that when we talk about the full year guidance. Currency translation, we guided for 50 millions positive in Q3. We're coming up at 44 millions. However, the total currency effect is negative 32. Metal price effect, we guided for 300 millions. We're coming up at minus 144. And if you look at the quarter, we started off on a fairly negative basis, but then over the quarter, the metal price effects turned actually positive at the end of the quarter. But again, metal prices have come down again. And for the full year, we are guiding, for the last quarter, we have a negative guidance as well. Tax rate 24.4, very in line with the guidance we gave, that's 24 to 26%. And if we look ahead then into the last quarter, we keep our guidance on the 800 millions for the capex. That might sound steep considering where we are. However, the last quarter is normally a very active quarter when it comes to capex. Currency effects we expect for transaction and translation Round zero, the fourth quarter compared to the corresponding period last year. Metal price effects, yes, metals have turned, prices have turned negative again. So we were guiding for minus 200 millions for the last quarter. And the tax rate, we keep our guidance to stay between 24 to 26 percent, maybe in the lower range of that range, lower part of that range. If that's all from me, I would like to turn back to Jörg.

Thank you, Olof. So let's look at the outlook. I'd say that despite this mixed demand in our markets during the quarter, the underlying megatrends are expected to continue to mitigate the impact of uncertainties, if any, in the macroeconomic environment for the rest of the year. And With our solid backlog, we have good visibility in our near-term deliveries. Of course, we are continuously taking actions to mitigate potential impact from cost inflation and under absorption of costs from the lower production volumes in certain segments. Product mix expected to be similar to the one we had now in the third quarter. And once again, cash flow is normally high in the second half of the year compared with the first half of the year. So to conclude, to summarize overall, I am pleased with our performance in the quarter and I think that we have delivered a strong result. We have a continued revenue growth and our backlog remains solid. We have a positive momentum from underlying tailwinds in many of our customer segments. But, of course, market condition is still soft in some other segments. And our diverse exposure is a clear benefit for us. Significant earnings improvements, once again, due to high revenues. improved mix and price increases. And I think we are continuing to execute on our strategy. I think we are clearly heading in the right direction for Elim. Before moving into the Q&A session, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you of our upcoming Capital Markets Day. We will host it physically in Stockholm on November 14. So if you have not already Please sign up through our website, elema.com, and I really hope to see you, as many of you as possible, in person. And now, let's do the Q&A session.

Yes, thank you, Göran. Thank you, Olof. So, it's now time for the Q&A session. And again, you can write your questions in the webcast, or you can ask them on the conference call. So, operator, please go ahead.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 or the touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. So we have a question coming from the webcast. Yes, sorry.

Yes. So let's start with that one. So, Jaron, you mentioned the order book is reflecting a changing mix with some segments declining and some are growing backlog. How will this impact margins going for Q4 23 and 2024? Could we expect continuing margin expansion?

I think The mix will be similar. So I think there is an improved mix in quarter four. I think maybe we should not make too much comments on 2024, but I think quarter four will look good. I think the year-on-year increase we had in quarter three, I think that is too much to extrapolate into quarter four.

Our first question over the phone comes from Alexander Vilval from Pareto. Please go ahead.

Hello, thanks for taking my questions. First of all, regarding the mix, it seems from my perspective that especially in tube, obviously, it's quite strong. compared to perhaps the last four quarters preceding Q3. Now, could you elaborate a little bit on the actual products, which took sort of precedence over other products, and how, well, you have said that you see the same mix going into Q4, but which specific products are there that have delivered this positive mix development?

Well, it's... It's more energy. It's both more oil and gas, more umbilicals. It's also a little bit more nuclear, actually. We have a very good position in Asia for what we call application tube. And in average, it is more of that than it was before. So those are three segments that I can make comments. And it's also price increases that are driving the performance of tube.

OK, so and then the conclusion, basically the same mix going into Q4 as you have seen now in Q3 as you said.

Yeah, I think also yeah, yeah, you're right. I mean, I make positive comments on oil and gas, on nuclear, on chem, petrochem, specifically in Asia. They are actually growing on all the backlogs, so that's the right conclusion.

You had a comment where you said basically all stars aligned for Cantal in Q3. Are there any potential sort of short-term, not to say downside, it's very strong results, but are there anything in Q3 that we would sort of need to assume was something out of the ordinary, or is Q3 a representative quarter for what Cantal is delivering at the moment?

It's representative, I don't know, I think it's a very strong quarter three result. And as I commented, I think they have been good in price execution. I think the materials part of industrial heating has improved their operational performance. Also there we see a more positive mix. They have some very interesting new solar businesses that is developing well. Overall in total in Kantal it's more medical wire, which we know is a highly profitable part. Uh, so, uh, and, and, and if you look at the Cantal graph, we also see that already Q4 last year was a strong quarter. So I don't think the year on year improvement should be extrapolated, but I don't see any reason why they should not continue to perform well, uh, in the fourth quarter. Is there any, anything that would, would sort of want more from Cantal? I mean, as I said, as, uh, uh, There are some parts of the industrial heating related to some weaker segments, and that could, of course, be stronger. But overall, fantastic results from Cantal.

Thanks. And the final question, perhaps, given your upcoming investments in China, where do you see total capex going into next year, perhaps 2025?

I think it's in line what we guide for this year. We talk about 800 million, and if we change that guidance, we will come back to you.

All right. Thank you for taking my questions.

Thank you. The next question comes from the land of Frederick Egerti from SAB. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Hi. Just one more question on the mix. Obviously, quite positive in the order book. If we just were to assume that standard grade steels are roughly on the same levels and all things remain unchanged into 2024, what level of uptick in earnings are we looking at? I know margins will depend on alloy surcharges and all that, but are we looking at a 10% EBITDA over 3 billion this year, or is it more, is it less? Just any indication would be very helpful, given that we don't have any volumes to model this on.

Hello, Fredrik. You know that we are not giving these kind of answers. We'll try to answer it. I mean, if mix continues as it is now, and there are no... volume drops, 2024 should continue to improve versus 2023. But there is a number of ifs in that question or in that answer.

And those are related to volumes, essentially, I guess.

Now that this was same volumes, same mix, 24 as we have now in quarter three, that would mean a stronger 24 than 23.

That's five to ten percent up, I guess.

Not if you talk percent units.

Okay. No, no, not in margin. I was just referring to the EBTA, so the level of earnings, because margins is a bit tricky depending on... It would continue to improve.

It would. But that is if all those ifs would materialize.

Yeah, that's fine. Okay. And then just on Cantal, it seems like you've been taking a step change. I hear your comments on Q4, but is sort of 18%, 19% margins a level we should expect in 2024, 2025 if volumes remain at these levels? Is it a new step change in Cantal earnings that we've seen? That is my view. That's your view. Okay. Thank you very much. Very helpful. Then cash flows. Well, so obviously very strong in the quarter. Second half is better than the first half. What should we expect for the fourth quarter? Because I guess if you look at it and you say that you have 7 billion in working capital and you typically are at 3%, that would suggest that you have another billion to release, given the current top-line levels. Is that a correct assumption?

I think it's all fair, Fredrik. I think that if you look back on Q4 last year, we had a lot of the cash flow for the year coming in then, so I wouldn't just extrapolate the last quarter last year. I expect still some positive, of course, depending on metal prices and so on, but I think that a more moderate cash flow development in the last quarter maybe than compared to last year. I think we have seen a lot of the inventory reductions this year. So I wouldn't, so to say, extrapolate anything. But, yeah, I think that's all I can say.

All right, that's fine. And in a normalized world, at what level, I mean, if you have 20 billion in revenues, what level of absolute working capital do you see yourself at? Is that sort of 6 billion, 6.5 billion?

I mean, it's so much depending on metal prices. And currencies. And currencies, of course, as metals are traded in dollars. So it's a bit difficult to say. I would say that we have a target that is lower than if you look at the more normal working capital to revenue ratio levels at the time. So we're striving to come down, but it's difficult to say.

All right. Yeah, I think you could say.

The next question comes from Victor Trollsen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, Göran, Olof, and Emilie. Thank you for taking my question. Maybe first on the various exposures and maybe the strength in Q3. You mentioned, Jaron, that you're still building backlog in oil and gas during Q3. So books to build well above one, I suppose. At what point would you stop taking orders within oil and gas if you're filling up the order book for 2024? That's my first question.

Hey, Victor, we would never stop taking orders, but I understand your question. I think, of course, the longer the order backlog gets, the less flexible we are to take new orders. That is the situation, and I think that is what you're asking about. I think it's a bit difficult. different between the OCTG business and the umbilical business if I start with the OCTG I mean I don't think we've had such a backlog ever we filled now up until 2020 end of 2024 and of course that that reduces our flexibility however um All of that is through our alliance partner, Tenaris. And of course, they could have some flexibility in their orders. So they maybe could move something ahead and put something else in. But otherwise, I would say OCDG could potentially be more difficult because there are more alternatives available. through our competitors in the OCTG business. While we're in umbilicals, I have difficulties to see this as a big problem. We know that the main competitor is also pretty well filled up and there are much less alternatives. So I'm not worried. I'm not worried at all. But I think umbilical has maybe more potential to grow than OCTG. But we will see.

Okay, that's clear. And in relation to that, if we discuss medical and industrial heating, I suppose that lead times are perhaps shorter by definition from order to Celsius. But what's your visibility on that? Are you still building backlog within these areas also currently? And for how long did the current order backlog take you into 2024?

Let's start with medical. No, we are not building backlog. But that is more mathematically, it's not market impact on that. It's that we still have, you remember the large order we booked in quarter four last year, that is still sort of not yet the invoice. So that has some impact on the order intake, even though it's strong. And We have a pretty long backlog in medical, but that is sort of a place in order. And then they call off from that. So I think we have a pretty good visibility and pretty long backlog in medicals. In industrial heating, it looks a little bit different. Different, I think, what we can see in that part is that the project business is growing faster than the maintenance part. More projects, it's not huge projects, but for Cantal they are large, both in, as I said, in solar, we see it in steel. But that brings sort of some confidence, while the most short-cycle part in Cantal, more maintenance-related, you need to sort of simplify. You need new heating elements in an old furnace. That is right now a little slower, and that is actually overall taking down the order backlog slightly in Cantal.

Okay. Okay, that's clear. And maybe to your comment, Olof, on the sort of year-to-date leverage at 24% as a good indication. I think you have historically mentioned that as a group you are at 20-25% leverage perhaps. But I guess that these areas have even higher leverage, correct?

Sorry, I didn't get the question. Please repeat. On the organic leverage for oil and gas, medical and industrial heating, it's higher than the 24% you mentioned yesterday for oil and gas areas. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah, that's super. Sorry before we jump to cash flows. You mentioned semiconductor exposure in industrial heating. How much is that of industrial heating? I don't know. I think we need to come back. That is a typical project business. It comes and it can be quite big and then it disappears. Because it's only CapEx related. They build new furnaces. I don't have that number in front of me, Victor. It's not huge. No. No. Okay. But margin typically seems to be quite good in semiconductors, instead of the same for you. Both. Yes, both in semiconductors and solar. It is tiny. And I think short-term, it looks a bit softer. I think long-term, we have a positive view on the semiconductor part. Not at least from what is expected to happen in the U.S., but it...

uh i mean it it hasn't touched us yet but it will no i see and then finally for me and i guess this will be a topic for for the capital markets day also so sorry for um running a bit early perhaps but but you know 300 million in that cash position now in q3 q3 it sounds like the cash flow outlook for q4 you know still quite good to see another 800 And that would put you well below your, you know, target of net debt equity of 0.3 times. So I'm just trying to, you know, understand where all this money will end up.

I mean, just, you know, mathematically, that would imply, you know, financial firepower of, you know, 6 billion dollars. if you were to have a gearing of 0.3 times this year. Just, you know, I guess on M&A, firstly, how do the pipeline look like? I mean, you've spent 170 million years. You know, how much can that accelerate with the current pipeline, if we stop there. We can start there. You're right, of course. Financially, it could be increased a lot. I think Olof could also answer this. I think it's cash flow is not a problem as such. If we look at our M&A strategy, and we will talk more about that on November 14, we have an active pipeline with potential targets. But I would say we have a pretty selective approach. We're not just buying sort of anything. It has to be targeted with clear synergies on the sales side, adding capability for products geographic position. Right now, I think we're looking maybe at a handful of companies and hopefully a few of those will conclude that they fit into Lima. Yeah, no, I said that, but I guess, you know, to see you spend $6 billion on M&A sounds a bit hefty, I suppose. So, you know, are there any reasons why you would want to be well below your financial target of 0.3 times that equity? I think that, I mean, also think about that there can be, of course, volatility in the cash flows coming from metal prices, metal prices, and they can affect us very quickly. I mean, if you just go back to 2022, We had fairly negative cash flows for a while. So in view of that, I think that you should view the financial position as a strong financial position. Of course, your questions are relevant.

We understand them. I prefer questions on a strong balance sheet than on a weak balance sheet. And, of course, we want to use this to grow Alema in a good way. But we are, as I said, pretty selective. It has to be good projects to do them.

That's super, and let's discuss on this. Just finally, I think you mentioned it, Olof, do you get any interest payments on the net cash position? Yes, we do. Yes, we do. Is it possible to indicate what sort of level? I think we would be in the...

And these are normally overnight courses. I would say that we would be in the two and a half, three percent range. Okay. That's super. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. Our last question comes from the line of Igor Tobik from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Thank you, Fraser. Thank you, team, for a good presentation. I just have one follow-up question because a lot of the questions have been answered, but it's about working capital. I just want