7/19/2024

speaker
Emelie Alm
Head of Investor Relations

Hi everyone and welcome to the presentation of the second quarter 2024 interim report for Alema. My name is Emelie Alm and I'm head of investor relations. I'm joined here today by Göran Björkman, president and CEO, and Olof Bengtsson, CFO. So as usual, Göran and Olof will take you through their results and then we will have a Q&A session. And you can ask questions through the conference call and you can also write them in the field below the webcast. You can download the presentation from aleima.com. As always, safety is a top priority for us. And I trust that you are safe now and that you know the safety routines of where you are located. So with that, I would like to hand over to you, Jaron.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Thank you, Emily. And hello, everyone. And thank you for listening. So let me start with the highlights for the second quarter, which I think was a well-executed quarter. We delivered a flat organic revenue growth with revenues at almost 5-4 billion. The organic order intake growth rolling 12 months declined 4%, but this is clearly more a consequence of the timing of orders rather than a lower demand compared to last year. Overall, market sentiment is improving. from already high levels in some and from low levels in other segments. And we believe we now have bottomed out in the short cycle business of industrial and consumer segment, and it's now turning to order growth, still from low levels. So all in all, the previously weaker segments has improved, and the previously strong segments are continued strong. And we are comfortable with a high quality backlog. We are often talking about a diverse business model that we are exposed to segments in different parts of the cycle. And I believe that shows even more in market downturn. Lehman is a different company now than, for example, in 2019, which at that time considered a great year. Where contribution to EBIT nowadays is much more diversified than it used to be. Strong free operating cash flow of 486 million. And all of this is a result of consequently staying with our strategy of growing our business in more profitable, less volatile niches, as well as our price leadership and our organizational flexibility. Our adjusted EBIT margin at 11.1% in the quarter is a clear proof of that. All this while we continue to benefit from global megatrends that generates business, such as a sustainable transition, which we'll come back to later in the presentation. Moving to sustainability, as I've said many times now, Alema is generating a positive impact through both our operations and our product offerings. I'd like to start with our operations. Safety is always our top priority. We are continuously and actively implementing measures to maintain safety as a top priority. If I look at the results, quarter two was roughly in line with quarter one, but not as good as quarter two last year. While the rolling 12-month endurance frequency rate is increasing, we just have to continue to put safety first and drive all the ongoing initiatives to improve. Our utilization of recycled steel remains high at 81%, slight sequential increase, but decreased year over year due to product mix. And our CO2 emissions are decreasing. We stay below the 100,000 tons for scope one and two, overall in 12 months period, which is a reduction of 5%. And in the quarter, we are decreasing our emissions by 4% compared to last year. And lastly, the proportion of female managers is increasing steadily, still recognizing this is only one aspect of our broader diversity inclusion initiatives. So if we look on how we do improve sustainability through our offers, in the quarter, Cantal signed an important strategic partnership with Daniele to join to develop and scale up Cantal's verified electric solution for high temperature process gas heating called Plutar DH. Processed gas heating is a key component to enable zero-emission DRI plants to move away from the high CO2 emission blast furnaces in the steelmaking process. The solution PROTAL is compatible with hydrogen, natural gas and also combinations of the two. This creates flexibility for customers in their choice of technology. During the quarter, STRIP launched a new compressor valve steel called FreeFlex Versa, which boosts energy efficiency in mainly white goods. And the demand for cooling systems is increasing with population growth, urbanization, high living standards, and climate change impacts. All of these are factors that contribute to this. And the International Energy Agency reports that cooling systems account for around 10% of global electricity consumption. Meaning, of course, that energy efficient cooling system could make a big difference in total electricity need. In the quarter, tubes secured orders for heat exchanger and straight tubes for Seneca 35 for biofuels in China and in Europe. And this is the first time Seneca 35 will be used for production of biofuels in those regions. And in the US, tubes received an order of heat exchanger tubes to renewable diesel refineries. I think all these are prime examples on how Alema is making a positive, sustainable impact through our product offering. I think it also showcases our ambitious R&D efforts, elevates us as the technology leader. So let's look at the market development. Overall, we see a more positive market sentiment now compared to last year and also compared to the last quarter. But the recovery in some segments is from low absolute levels. However, the macro environment has improved compared to last quarter, but still not very strong. And I'll walk you through each segment, starting with oil and gas. The underlying demand is still on really high levels. The project list of upcoming tenders and potential future orders is very strong. But as we booked several significant orders last year, we filled our backlog heavily for quarters to come. We are meeting high comparables and therefore not growing order intake year over year in this period. Industrial, we noted this recovery of the low refined products. And by the look of things, we think this market has troughed and that demand is slowly increasing, even though market is not very strong. Chemical and petrochemical, strong demand in Asia, as we've seen for a long time now, and the underlying demand is really there, and we are gaining from build-out of several projects, lately a lot related to urea production. Demand in Europe is also improving from already solid levels, and also North America is now showing signs of recovery, although from low levels. Industrial heating, weak in demand year over year, and we see some hesitance in placing orders for some customers at the moment. And some of this is related to investments in the solar industry. Consumer, still a soft market, but with cautious signs of recovery, mainly driven by the white goods industry in the strip division. Mining construction, still a strong market, growing year over year, mostly driven by a strong mining industry. Medical continues to be strong markets, several drivers. We booked significant orders in the quarter, mainly related to continuous glucose measuring, but momentum is strong across the whole product portfolio. And nuclear, as you know, that business has naturally long lead times, but the high activity continues. Discussions are ramping up, and we are booking orders both for new and old technologies. Transportation demand grew year over year with high activity for aerospace titanium tubing. And lastly, hydrogen renewable energy. We see it's a bit mixed at the moment. Some slowdown in activity related to hydrogen fuel cells, and that is totally related to delays at customer ramp-ups. And we expect this to remain a bit slow throughout the year. But this is a wide segment, and we see good momentum in other areas, like, for example, tubes to be used for production of biofuse. And this remains one of our top prioritized segments over the longer time. So to comment on order intake and revenue, organic order intake growth was minus 4% for a rolling 12 months. But we noted a sequentially improving order of take. I think this number was minus eight a quarter ago. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to lower oil and gas. But remember, from high comparables, and we still view this market as very strong, also industrial heating declined year-on-year. In most other segments, organic order intake was positive year on year with sequential improvement. An absolute level in order intake on a high level above 20 billion. Total revenues of almost 5.4 billion. Flat organic growth from a record high quarter to last year. And as said in the last quarter, we believe we have reached the trough in the short cycle business in industrial and consumer segments. but they are still showing negative revenue growth compared to a year ago due to a thin backlog. With a rolling 12 months book-to-bill on 102% in the quarter, a solid backlog with good mix, we still see clear opportunities for slight revenue growth in the upcoming year. Moving to earnings, the adjusted EBIT decreased by 8% to 592 million, with a margin on 11.1%. Our product mix remains strong, and it is clear that there are a lot more products contributing to the Lehman EBIT now compared to only a couple of years ago, not least Cantal's medical business. The slight margin decline in the quarter was, however, impacted by the lower contribution from the Cantal division due to lower sales volume from industrial heating. But still, Cantal's margin on 18.3% is not a bad level. Over time, Cantal has firmly increased their lowest level. Strong free operating cash flow of 486 million. This is strong for a second quarter. But I have to say some of this is a catch up from quarter one. We believe this graph tells an important story about where we have been and the journey we have started. Quarter two has been a solid quarter, and if we zoom out a bit, we are on very high historical levels. And please note that the comparables in quarter two 2023 are high, as this was the best quarter in the LEMA history, both in terms of revenues and earnings. And also remember that our contribution business, the low refined industrial segment, declined for seven consecutive quarters and is now looking at its turnaround. And volumes in the steel mill are still around 20% lower than in 2019. Key success factors are keeping price leadership balls in tough times, not feeling backlog with poorly priced orders. We're also continuously optimizing our footprint and improving flexibility in the cost base, and we're far more agile now than we have been in the past. But most importantly, we focus on growing attractive niches, improving mix. Today, we have a much wider span of products contributing to our earnings. And we believe we are only at the beginning of this journey, as mixed changes happen over time, and we continue to execute our strategy to pursue growth within segments with higher profitability and less cyclicality, which then in time will make Lame as a group just that, less volatile and more profitable. So let's move to the divisions, starting with Tube. Tube noted the organic order growth of minus 4% for the rolling 12-month period and was impacted by a weaker intake in the oil and gas segment and the North American chemical and petrochemical and industrial segments. Partially offset by mining and construction and nuclear and continued strong development in chemical and petrochemical in Asia. But even though order intake in oil and gas declined, which it did, there is still a strong underlying momentum in the sector. And we will continue to capitalize going forward. For OCTG, we're now booking orders N25 and into 26 and mid-25 for umbilicals. And the organic order intake decline is rather a consequence of timing of orders, the strong backlog and high comparables from last year when we were building backlogs. And please note that the industrial and chemical and petrochemical segment in North America now turns positive from low levels. Book the bill, 105% rolling 12. I think this is still a solid backlog. Organic revenue growth of 1%, mainly driven by the oil and gas segment. Product mix remains strong, and we are implementing price increases successfully, and the margin grew to 11.7%. positive effects of 30 million year-over-year. Cantal. Cantal is coming from a very strong 2023. Cantal's industrial heating segment has seen a bit of a slowdown in the last quarters, which is affecting both order intake and revenues. We note some caution among customers. I'd say, however, we believe this will turn around again towards the end of the year. The medical segment, however, is maintaining its strong momentum, growing in both order intake and revenues. Revenues declined 3% organically, coming from the lower deliveries and industrial heating segment, while medical stood strong. Book the bill, 96%. We are still consuming a bit of order backlog at the moment, but Cantal's ability to adjust capacity and reduce costs where needed makes us confident about the margins going forward. even though they are meeting high comps going forward in quarter three adjusted ebit margin was 18.3 in the quarter which i think is a good level given where we're coming from with lower volumes in industrial heating and especially in the solar segment which is a highly profitable segment this is a strong result strip has been heavily affected by the weak consumer-related demand, but where we now, for the second straight quarter, have seen some indications of a market recovery, especially then in the white goods industry, where one of our more important products is the compressor valve steel. However, still with some uncertainties and relatively low levels. Organic oil intake was flat on the rolling 12-month basis due to growth in the consumer transportation segment, offset by negative growth in industrial hydrogen and renewables. Our coated strip steel for fuel cells to hydrogen and renewables segment are still facing a subdued demand due to delays in our customers' ramp-up. In the quarter, revenue declined organically by 6%, still with impact from the thinner backlog. However, the consumer segment is now growing, although from low levels. Book to bill, 96%. EBIT margin grew to 10.2% from last year's 10.0% from an improved product mix and better cost position. And with that, it's time for Olof.

speaker
Olof Bengtsson
CFO

Thank you, Göran. And let's look at the financial summary for the quarter and a half year then. So if we start to the right by looking at the table there, we see a rolling 12-month order intake at a high 20.1 billions. And organically, on a rolling 12-month basis, we are down 4% on the order intake. still meeting some high quarters from 2023. And the minus four doesn't come from a low demand as we see it, but from time orders. And it's also a sequential improvement from the last quarter that had 80% rolling. Further down the table, organ currency, we get some help from the currency on the order intake. Alloys are negative four, and that comes mainly then from the alloy surcharge then. That is based mainly on the nickel price. And if we compare the nickel price in the LME nickel price in the quarter versus the same quarter last year, we're actually 17% lower. nickel prices so that explains that number if we go to revenues almost at 5.4 billions in the quarter also impacted by lower metal prices and consequently also a negative surcharge there but organically our growth is flat compared to a very strong quarter last year where we had an organic growth of 18% and looking at the 12-month rolling number on the revenues, we're just below 20 billions. That gives a book to below 102%. And just to give you a little bit help, looking into the third quarter here on the alloy surcharge, we're expecting, and that is obviously based on the assumptions at the end of the second quarter, we are expecting a Alloy surcharge effect on minus 4% on the rolling 12-month order intake and minus 3% on the quarterly revenues. But that can of course change if metal prices change a lot from our assumptions. Looking then at the EBIT, comes out at 592 million in the quarter, lower than last year, coming down from low revenues in some segments. And the adjusted margin coming out at 11.1%, showing resilience. And again, metal price fluctuations have impacted our reported EBIT, which comes out at 12.8% versus 6.2% last year, as the nickel prices have increased sequentially between the quarters. The average nickel price is 10% higher in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. So there's a difference between year over year and sequential development of the price. We'll keep that in mind. Further down, net financial items for the quarter coming out at a positive 137 million compared to a negative 39 million same quarter last year. The main difference here comes from revaluation of financial instruments not included in our hedge accounting scheme. That affects by 125 millions in total. There's also a small correction from last year being done of 39 millions. But the underlying interest net is positive. We have a good cash position, as you know, and that's currently yielding approximately 3.8% interest income. Tax rate, the reported tax rate is fairly low in the quarter. I prefer to look at the normalized tax rate. And if we look at that year to date for the six month period, it comes out at 23.8. So on the low side of the guidance. Free operating cash flow at 486 millions. I'll get back to that in a later slide. And finally, adjusted earnings per share increased by 25% to 2.23%. And that is, of course, helped by the positive finance net and the lower tax rate. If we then look at the bridge, going from 642 to 592, that's 50 millions down. Organically, we are down 77 millions. That is the FX adjusted. And that is coming, you can say, both from Cube and Cantal, but also from higher central costs in the quarter, what we call the common costs. And if you look at the common costs, I think you should be careful not to draw any conclusions from the quarterly outcome, because that can be affected and is affected by project-related costs that has happened in the quarter. you should sooner look at the half year pace and if you compare half year to half year you see that there is a slight increase but it's not in the same magnitude and so I think that the half year shows the right pace on the central costs. Cantal and Tube then are also impacting here as I just mentioned Tube received last year a subsidy for high electricity costs, and I think that explains most of their deviation, while Cantal is affected by the low revenues in heating segments. We have a positive effect from FX, and that mainly relates to Tube, about 30 million. And we have no impact from structure, no acquisitions impacting the quarter. So that is in brief the explanations to the development of the adjusted EBIT. Going to the balance sheet, net working capital, if we start to the left, lower than last year, but slightly up sequentially. Year over year, it's mainly the lower metal prices that I just talked about that is impacting the numbers. And the sequential development comes mainly from slightly higher physical inventories, from seasonal buildups, as we also have sequentially higher metal prices that also, of course, impacts the inventory numbers. But I should also say that we have a strong focus on the physical inventories. There's not so much we can do about the prices of the metals, but of course, the physical inventories is a big focus area in our divisions. And I must say that we are doing good progress in reducing our inventories, our physical inventories. And that also shows in the network and capital percentage coming out at 32.7% versus 33.2%. Of course, helped by lower metal prices, but also, of course, with the work of optimizing the inventories, the divisions. Looking to the right, to the capital employed slide, we see a lower capital employed decreasing to approximately 15.8 billions from 16.4 last year, and the year-over-year change comes mainly then from the lower net working capital as the fixed assets on the balance sheet are fairly stable year-over-year. Return on capital employed, which we measure excluding cash, is based on the operating profit, including the metal price effect. It was 9.3% based on rolling 12 months, which is a slight decrease from last year's 11.1%. Again, metal prices in fact in Europe. Next slide is cash flow. We have a good strong cash flow of 486 million in the quarter. That's a big improvement from last year. coming from a higher reported EBITDA. There is a slight impact from the networking capital changes, also increased capex, and we have quite a lot of growth projects ongoing. And there is also, I should say, there is a spillover effect from the first quarter, where we had some delays in invoicing that we talked about then. And also the fact that the Easter came in the middle of the quarter end that delayed some income in payments. So there is definitely a spillover effect. But if you look at the healthier number, it's still a much better number than the 2023 number. So a good cash flow. which takes us to a strong financial position. Despite paying a dividend of 502 millions in the quarter, we have a strong financial position. If you look at our financial targets, 0.3 times net debt to equity, we're far below that. We are actually at a negative 0.02 times in the quarter. If we prefer to look at net debt to adjusted EBITDA, we are at minus 0.1 times. So far below the target. Net pension liabilities, if we look at the different parts of the net debt, they increased to 761 millions at the end of the quarter. That is an increase from 569, and that comes mainly then from lower discount rates applied to their pension liability. It's mainly the Swedish liability that impacts here. Leasing liabilities increased to 457 millions. And then we have our cash, the net cash position, 1.5 billion. That is actually an improvement if we measure year over year by a billion. 516 was the number a year ago. And that also then includes the fact that we have paid 502 million in dividends. So in total, a cash accumulation of 1.5 billion compared to a year ago. Looking at the total net debt, it comes out at 277 million then, and that is an improvement from a debt position of 448 million a year ago. So to summarize, we're backed by a strong financial position, net cash position, and also an unutilized revolving facility of 3 billion. Looking at our latest guidance then, and the outcome of that. If we start with capex, we came out at 212 millions in the quarter, or 353 millions year to date, and we have guided for 950 millions for the full year. And remember that the second half of the year is normally higher in terms of capex. currency and translation effects can be guided for 23 we came out at 25 or 27 if we also measure the edge impact so we're well in line on that number method price effect here we have a deviation we guided for 100 million negative and came out at 96 millions but when we make our guidance we normally base that on the prices prevailing at the end of the quarter and if you I recall during the second quarter, we had a peak in metal prices, mainly in nickel. I think we were approximately at somewhere around $19,000 per ton. The guide has said the nickel price has been well above $20,000 per ton during most of the quarter, however, falling back quite a lot at the end of the quarter. Normalized tax rate coming out at 23.8, and that's at the lower part of our guidance, 24 to 26. So if we then look into the coming quarter or the quarter that we just entered into, Q3, we are keeping our guidance for the full year of 950 million for the capex. We have quite a lot of ongoing projects. If you recall, we had 850 million of capex last year. But this year, we have tubes China investment. We have the silicon carbide investment in Cantal in Scotland and the US, and also the Japanese project that Cantal recently announced. Approximately 400 million of the 950 are maintenance related capex. Current effects fairly close to zero. We believe in negative 15 million as the corona currently is slightly stronger than in Q3 last year. Metal prices, a difficult one here. We believe that we will come out at negative 50 millions based on the development so far and the prevailing metal prices and dollar rates at the end of the quarter. Of course, things can change here if the metal prices increase. This will be less negative. Same goes if the dollar strengthens. and we are sticking to our guidance for the tax rate to be between 24 to 26 but most likely at the lower part of that range and then i would like to hand back to joran for an outlook for third quarter thanks olaf uh well uh we view the development positively in several of our customer segments

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

And the underlying megatrends are expected to continue to support the development in a somewhat cautious economic environment. Backlog is solid in our key segments and we have good visibility in our near-term deliveries. Product mix is expected to be similar to the one in the second quarter. Order intake, revenues and adjusted EBIT are normally lower in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. And that is, of course, due to the seasonal variations from summer shutdowns. Cash flow is normally higher in the second half of the year than in the first. So let me summarize. We are noting a sequentially improved market sentiment in most of our segments. Macro environment seems to improve. Of course, still some uncertainties. But we are now cautiously positive looking ahead as we believe markets have dropped. Over the last quarters, we have had a solid backlog for most segments and a weaker backlog in other segments and approximately 20% lower volumes in our steel plant compared to 2019. And I think we have navigated well and we've been successful in adapting to this mixed demand. choosing the right orders, being flexible in our production and with our cost base. And this is in combination with our strategy to grow highly profitable and less cyclical niches, making us a much more resilient company than we used to be. Of course, and with stable and higher margins over time. Our order backlog remains solid with a good product mix looking ahead. I will remain committed to execute a strategy. The medical segment is once again proving itself as a reliant pocket of growth. Chemical and petrochemical in Asia as well. Industrial heating, even if it's been a softer market for some time, absolute levels are still high, and we are confident that this business for the future is in line with the energy transition. And the same goes for the hydrogen and renewable energy segment. With that, I'd like to hand back to you, Emilie.

speaker
Emelie Alm
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Göran, and thank you, Olof. So with that, it's time to start the Q&A session. And again, you can write questions in the webcast or you can ask them on the conference call. So operator, please go ahead.

speaker
Operator
Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone with a question may press star and 1 at this time. Our first question comes from Adrian Gilani from ABG. Please go ahead.

speaker
Adrian Gilani
ABG

Yes, hello. A couple questions from Ian. First of all, in Q1, you had the 100 basis point negative margin effect from the lost sales on the new ERP system. Was there a reversal of this in Q2 that sort of boosted the margin, or did In that sense, more than just sort of the normal catch-up effect on that.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

That's a good question. I'm not sure we have done that math. We clearly don't have the same problems as we had in quarter one. The delays we had in quarter one has been reduced. Exactly how much of that has helped the quarter two, I actually don't know, but your reasoning is correct.

speaker
Adrian Gilani
ABG

Okay, I understand. And then on the oil and gas segment, if I recall correctly, you previously sort of stated that you expected to remain strong for at least the rest of the year. At the same time, on the arrows that you used to guide, you lowered the arrow for oil and gas now. So should we interpret that as new orders being a bit weaker, but the order backlog will still support strong growth for the rest of the year? Is that a fair assessment?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

I think... I mean, the arrows are maybe sometimes a little bit difficult. I mean, I think you should view it as... I mean, we view it as a strong market as we viewed it a year ago. And we... Of course, a year ago, if you look at the order intake, we booked a lot of orders in quarter two last year. I think we filled the backlog with about... half a year and i think that is of course something you cannot do every quarter uh so so i think you should not read us we think it's weaker but it's as strong as before we have a lot of of potential orders in tenders and project lists going forward okay that's clear thank you and uh

speaker
Adrian Gilani
ABG

Then on the industrial segment, now that you are sort of seeing that demand improving in the short cyclical part, would you say that the under-absorption effects that you've been talking about on the margins in recent quarters, that that's now fixed, or are you still not back to normal utilization rates?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

There are still units that are running... at a lower volume than we would like to. But if you look at it from a bridge effect, quarter of a quarter, we'll say that that is flat. There is no underabsorption effect in this quarter.

speaker
Adrian Gilani
ABG

Okay, thank you. And the final one from me. I think you get this question every quarter, but is there any progress on the decision to restart the idled production line for the nuclear pipes in Sandvik? And what's the sort of status on that in general?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Yes, there are progress, but really nothing to report. I think the most important question for us is to judge how much we need, meaning at what pace would we potentially ramp it up? And I still foresee a decision during this year.

speaker
Adrian Gilani
ABG

Okay, understood. In that case, that was all for me. So thank you for taking my questions. Thanks.

speaker
Operator
Operator

The next question comes from Hanna Greenborg from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

speaker
Hanna Greenborg
Handelsbanken

Thank you. I have two questions. The first one is also regarding oil and gas. You spoke a bit about it causing lower order intake. I wonder if we should expect something similar for the rest of the year, that it will be hard to meet the high comparables? And my other question is if you can give some more details regarding the negative demand development in industrial heating and what your expectations were on when it might recover, if it was towards the end of the year, or what your expectations were there.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

If we start with oil and gas, I mean, as I said, we continue to see this as a very strong market. Today we are booking, I mean, OCDG, we're booking already now into 2026, umbilicals into mid-25. I foresee, I mean, in both of those cases, there are a lot of orders to continue to win. But, of course, comparables could be against us when we look at the order intake growth as such. but it's a continuous strong market in oil and gas. Industrial heating, that has been weaker now. I mean, it's still quite good levels, but it's been weak now for three quarters. In discussion with the customers, they expect end of the year to improve, and then that is also what we expect next.

speaker
Hanna Greenborg
Handelsbanken

All right. All right. And, yes, thanks for that. That's clear.

speaker
Operator
Operator

The next question comes from Victor from Danske. Please go ahead.

speaker
Victor
Danske

Yes. Thank you, operator, and the higher, and Olof, and Emily. Thank you for the presentation. That's firstly on the tube margin and the underabsorption from the short cycle business. I'm a bit puzzled that you say that you have no No impact in the quarter, given that just look on the bridge that you show on the just a little bit. You said that negative volume or organic impact had, you know, negative 77 million impact year over year. So, you know, no impact. Is that sequentially? And could you provide any feeling for, you know, the impact year over year, what that is?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Please repeat that question. I'm not following you 100%.

speaker
Victor
Danske

No, but I guess that it sounded like you have no negative under-absorption effect now during Q2. But I guess just doing the math myself, that in the EBIT bridge, you have a 77 million negative organic impact on 0% organic sales growth. So it seems to be some volume impact year over year, which I guess is from short cycle business. But could you help me understand the under-absorption effect?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

But the under-absorption effect compared to quarter two last year is flat, so there is no under-absorption effect. And if you're sort of part of that question relates to leverage in tube, I think, first of all, it's not easy to make leverage calculation when... or the revenue growth is around 0% because it gets very sensible, that calculation. We had, recall it, energy subsidies last year, roughly at the same level as the FX effect in tube this year so those two balance balance each other and if you exclude those the the improvement in the ebit margin in tube is actually fair okay

speaker
Victor
Danske

So, but I'm just thinking that, you know, it has sounded like in recent quarters that capacity utilization has been rather low from low, you know, low volume from short cycle. I guess it hasn't, you know, picked up that quickly sequentially. I mean, it's not fully, you know, understanding that you don't have any under distortion effect now in Q2.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Victor, I'm not saying that the absorption is good in all parts, but we had effects already last year, so it's the bridge effect that is flat. There are still units within Alema where we would like to see more volume.

speaker
Victor
Danske

Okay, okay. And then on, given that you said that short cycle markets have picked up a bit at least, You know, I guess that the lead times from orders to sales is a bit closer than, you know, for the average group. Is that correct? Then, you know, what sort of lead times should we be thinking about when orders to sales?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Yeah, but absolutely. I mean, that is the sort of the definition of this short cycle business. I'm not sure, Bill, it's maybe three months, something like that, two, three months difference.

speaker
Victor
Danske

So when could that grow year-over-year in sales? Would that be, you know, already in Q3? Because it was down now in Q2 in terms of sales, if I don't misunderstand you.

speaker
Olof Bengtsson
CFO

Maybe Q3 is not the best quarter to compare.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

In Q3 we have a standstill, but this will grow during the rest of the year.

speaker
Victor
Danske

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's fair. And then just finally on Cantal and Medical, is it possible to share how large share of Cantal is Medical now in terms of order intake?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

No, we don't share that. They had some good orders, Medical, in the quarter, but we don't share those numbers yet. And I think what we have said before is that even though Medicaid is not sort of a project-related business as we have in oil and gas and nuclear, we have customers that place orders not every month. So, of course, that could go up and down a little bit. But the underlying demand in that business is strong. Okay.

speaker
Victor
Danske

Okay, that's super. That's all from me. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from Igor Tubic from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

speaker
Igor Tubic
Carnegie

Thank you, operator, and thank you, Jan-Olof and Emilie. I just have one follow-up question, and that's with regards to that you said that you are implementing price increases. in the tube segment. Is that primarily in the oil and gas, or do you see that across any of the other segments as well?

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Don't disclose our price increases. Of course, where the business is the strongest, we have the best opportunities. But oil and gas is clearly good.

speaker
Igor Tubic
Carnegie

Okay, and when you say price increases, does that relate to the gross profit, so to say, excluding the alloy surcharge, or is that... Absolutely, yes.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Transaction price. You could call it organic price increases. Base price. Base prices, yes. Okay, great.

speaker
Igor Tubic
Carnegie

Thank you very much. That's all.

speaker
Operator
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Emilie for any closing remarks.

speaker
Emelie Alm
Head of Investor Relations

Yes, thank you very much, operator. And thank you all for listening to the call and for all your questions. And we look forward to catching up with you soon. So thank you and goodbye.

speaker
Göran Björkman
President and CEO

Thank you. Thank you.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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