Alligo AB (publ)

Welcome to Aligo Q4 Report 2024. And let this mark the end of this crappy year. Look at this beautiful picture of a number of stock batteries, which is a little hint of what we are going to talk about in a few minutes. That is our Batterilaget acquisition. Presenters today, as always, Elias Midsombon-Berlande, our brilliant CFO, and myself, Some highlights, we have included less and less pictures, slides describing the Aligo Group, and now it's only this one left because we think you slowly but surely are learning more and more about the group. So we're not many slides presenting the Aligo Group as such, but here we are called Sudol in Sweden, tools in Norway and Finland mainly, and a number of subsidiaries in different businesses. We will come back to that later on. So some two hundred and twenty stores throughout the Nordic countries. So highlight continued week market, as I said, a crappy year. We did a very, very good twenty twenty three, potentially looking like a little bit too good, considering that the market had already started to turn down in twenty twenty three. And we, as everybody else, have planned for a good and stable market upturn starting second half of 2024, which did not materialize, as you know. So we had throughout the year and the Q4, we had a weak market. We many times talk about the construction industry and the manufacturing industry, but close to half of our group is also in other segments, transportation, oil and gas, and different segments. which also had a difficult year. But throughout the year, oil and gas has been stable in Norway. And we do see some positive signals. A lot of different reporting companies have been talking about that. They see positive signals. Some are seeing an increase in uptick in oil intake. And we see positive signals, but they are not yet visible in the sales figures. We see signs of recovery in Finland, but if you look at the Q4, in all honesty, we had a weak Q4 2023 in Finland as the whole industry came to a stop. It was actually a date, 16th of November. So we had easy comps for the Finnish case. We think we as a management team are doing a fair job. We have been driving sales like crazy. I've never seen so many sales initiatives and allocating so many resources to push sales as we are doing and have been doing. We've been doing a lot of acquisitions during the year. We have concluded 11 and signed nine, which is quite impressive as we are at the same time trying to adjust the cost base and drive sales. We're working constantly with the inventory levels. There's still a lot to be done, but we think we are taking steps forward. And then some price adjustments, which we need to be very careful with coming out of this high inflation period where the price increases were very, very high, not to end up in a position where we are perceived as super expensive. So to do that in a balanced way to keep our healthy contribution margins But not to price ourselves out to the market is a specific task to do. Delivery capacity is good. Sweden and Finland, we had issues, you know, with the startup of Besti, our new central warehouse in Norway, which we moved into during Q1 2024. And then to be clear, we had over six months of disturbances, but now during Q4. We have stabilized it and it's performing nicely, nice enough for us to actually press the button and go with JEEVS in the first of February this year. Macroeconomic factors, we consume everything which is available from macro statistics to peers, to everything we can find. And it looks like it should have a better development going forward. GDP wise, construction segments, Inflation should be on a decent level. So it looks like it's stabilizing. Q4 in brief, totally 2% up, helped by acquisitions, of course. So the organic is minus three. Cash flow, okay. And for the full year, actually a pretty good cash flow. EBITDA 214 compared to 308 last year, leaving us with an 8.3 EBITDA margin. And a gross margin of 41.1, mainly burdened within quotation marks of lower positive effects of supplier bonus agreement. Of course, when we buy less, you have less bonus outcome. And that normally is a Q4 effect we have, which was less this year than previous years. So acquisitions. We managed to acquire Batterilaget, a very nice business, the largest acquisition since we formed Aligo. It's strengthening our battery offer that we already have, of course. We are not super small in the battery segment as we are. And that is a very strong compliment to our offer. Completed in 5th of February. Sustainability climate targets for scope 1, 2, and 3 sent into site-based target initiative a validation and we are taking steps in the sustainability area. One proof of that is the ranking that Domestika Industria does where we two years ago was I think number 37 and last year I think we were at 27 and now we are at number 20. So we have no ambition to be number one but if you are among top 15-20 I think it's good because it's a competitive disadvantage not to be good in sustainability. And then operations. We have talked many times in this forum about the poor performance of the original tools business in Finland. And nobody historically has ever been able to really turn it around. And in all honesty, I thought we could turn it around in a couple of years, but it is a tough nut to crack. And we are putting in more efforts to turn that development around. The ERP system in Norway, we actually went live last Monday, and it went well, touch all the woods existing. So it looks like it has started up nicely. And we are now launching the Recare, which was previously known as Smartware, but the real brand when we now launch it is Recare. We'll come back to that. So I said acquisitions. We actually designed nine acquisitions from 750 million in turnover during the year. Nice, well-run, profitable businesses. And we are super happy that we managed to do this, even if it looks like an effect is that our leverage is a little bit higher from 1.6 to 2.4, I think. That's a natural effect of this. But there are acquisitions that we really wanted to do and managed to perform. So just a quick introduction to two of them of a little bit of a different theme and from two different technical areas. One is Corema that we managed to acquire during Q4, 155 million turnover business operations in Gothenburg and Sundsvall, very much of an industrial profile. large industrial customers, which is complementing the other five separate businesses we had within welding. Well established customer base and we through acquiring Korema, we also as a side effect got the positive strengthening of our fastening offer. And as you know, we are launching our own brand in within Fasteners and Korema has a good competence within Fasteners. positive side effect of acquiring Corema. Then if we switch to Svenska Batterilagret, super happy to be able to acquire this very nice company. 27 stores at around Sweden, 275 million turnover and have a wide battery assortment. Everybody I talk to these days, they all have different relations too. It seems like a lot of people know about battery longer, much wider than I could ever imagine. So strong in-car batteries, lithium batteries for tools and other equipment, solar panels. So super strong player within the battery segment and has, of course, both B2B and B2C customers. So they are super welcomed to our group. They had the first management team meeting yesterday as a legal group. So, high speed. Irene, over to you.

Yes, thank you. As Cain mentioned, the trend as seen throughout 2024 continued into Q4. We developed and streamlined the business and continued working on reducing the cost base. Revenue increased by 2% in the quarter, negatively impacted by one trading day less, ethics effects and a mild winter. The negative organic growth in Finland and in Sweden continued. However, sales in Finland slightly recovered while sales in Sweden were weaker. Overall, the group had a negative organic growth of minus 3%, offset by a sufficient giving growth of 6.8%. EBITDA reached 214 million SEK, a decline from 308 million last year, and the result was weaker in all markets, but primarily in Sweden, driven by decreased volumes within the SME segment and larger customers within public administration and the green tech industry. The decrease in profitability was due to weaker demand, reduced supplier bonuses, and adverse mix effects impacting the contribution margin. Cost savings and the acquired result partially offset the declining gross profit. And as shown in the EBITDA bridges, cost reductions have balanced the annual salary increases and the inflation effects related to other expenses. As you can see on this slide, Sweden was hurt during 2024 because the wheat market primarily impacted small and mid-sized customers and the share of SMEs decreased from 62% to 56%. In addition, larger industrial customers to a greater extent by fixed assortments of external brands and the share of sales of own brands decreased from 24% to 22% in Sweden. There are several parameters that impact the contribution margin. We have an unfavorable customer segment mix across all countries. And in Norway, the oil and gas sector shows positive sales trend, making up a more significant portion of total sales. However, this customer mix negatively impacted the group's contribution margin by 0.5 percentage points in Q4. And furthermore, the decline in sales related to SMEs implied a negative impact of 0.2 percentage points on the group's contribution margin in 2004. Moving on to some highlights of each market development in 2004. And when it comes to Sweden, the market continued to be weak, and the growth was negative at around minus 9%. The drop is primarily related to SMEs but there was also decrease in public administration and the green tech industry which had a positive sales trend earlier this year. Cost savings and acquired results positively impact EBITDA but couldn't fully compensate for weak organic sales, unfavorable mix effects and decreased supplier bonuses. In Norway the oil and gas This market has continued to be strong, but the result is behind last year due to a drop in gross margin and higher costs for temporary employees and freight in the new logistics center. In Finland, the manufacturing industry clearly slowed down in Q4 last year, and low comparable figures imply a slight recovery in Q4 this year, and organic growth was negative at minus 4%. While our recent acquisitions have positively impacted the results, the old tools business is struggling. And during the quarter, a project was initiated to reverse the negative profitability trend. As you know, the fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest quarter from a cash flow perspective. However, operating cash flow was slightly lower than last year due to lower EBITDA. We have continued to focus on reducing inventory levels with investments in our own brand somewhat contracts. The four years investing activities were mainly related to the completion of 11 acquisitions, and we have deprioritized organic investments in favor of acquisitions. capex to depreciation ratio amounted to a multiple of 0.9 which aligns with our long-term target level the higher cash flow from financing activities is explained by the higher usage of our credit facilities which is partly contracted by increased amortization of leasing liabilities and dividend paid Net debt at year end was 1.6 billion, an increase from last year due to acquisitions, increased dividend payments, and decreased operating cash flow. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA was multiple of 2.4, which is higher than last year due to a combination of lower EBITDA and higher net debt. The acquisition of battery ladders was completed in February, and therefore, leverage is expected to remain at this level in the short term but gradually decrease. Our covenants relate to interest coverage and equity assets ratios and they are fulfilled at the end of the period and there is still good headroom before reaching the thresholds. Moving on to our performance in 2024 in relation to our financial and sustainability targets. And obviously, due to the weak market, organic growth didn't meet our target levels, and that has resulted in a setback for the EBITDA margin trend. The decreased profitability and the high acquisition pace have increased leverage, but we still have a solid financial position, and leverage is well within the financial target range. The board of directors proposes a dividend for 2024 of 2 SEK per share, which corresponds to 36% of net results compared to 35% last year. Furthermore, throughout the year, we have progressed in our sustainability efforts. For instance, concerning responsible supplier relationships, 77% now meet our supply standard requirements compared to 67% last year. And furthermore, we submitted our science-based targets for reducing Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions to FPTI for validation. Handing it over to you, Klain, for summary and outlook.

Thank you. So Q4, in summary, it concluded a super challenging year. and was not in line with our long-term development as we would have wished. But I think we did everything in our powers to come out okay at the end. I'll find some market stabilizing, but as I always say, we have huge opportunities even in a little bit of a weaker market. High acquisition pace, nine acquisitions signed during 2024, adding close to 750 million specs. Korema Batterilaget you have listened to. We have initiated a project in Finland, TTA Tools Turnaround, to really get the grip of the profitability of the original tools business in Finland once and for all. And we have a strong financial position to continue to do investments in our own operations or doing acquisitions and to do dividends. So we have a super strong position. We have our concept brands, Sudol, Tools, and many other local brands. We have our strong own brands in workwear and in tools, which gives us a very, very strong position in the market. We continue to do acquisitions, and we have identified, as we say, technology areas where we do acquisitions. Welding is one, battery is another one, and that will create synergies in the group. And we also continue to improve and make more efficient and streamline the existing operations. And we are, as we speak, launching now this re-care. I'm not allowed by our sustainability team to say it's a circular offer, but it's more circular than the competitors offers that they are calling the circular offer of laundry, sewing, reuse, and then disposal in a good way. And we have a continued cost cautiousness, and we are running cost reductions programs continuously. So it looks a little bit better further on into the future. So that concludes that section. Back to you, Raz, for Q&A.

Thank you, sir. As a reminder to ask a question on the phone line, please press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Once again, please press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type them in the question box and click Submit. Please stand by while we compare the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of call. Johan, upon a view from a D&B market, please ask a question. Your line is opened.

Yes, good morning, Klein and Erjan. I guess, as you put it, Klein, it's good to put this here behind you, but maybe you can help us understand a little of the moving parts a little better in Q4. You give this a very nice table with all the moving parts, but They're looking at the earnings change of 100 million that's not coming through in this report compared to last year. Could you maybe block them up and see how you see the different parts playing into that number?

The main explanation to the lower gross margin is this supplier bonus effect. Since we have a lower purchasing volume, that has, of course, significant effect on the amount this year. And we always have this reconciliation effect in Q4, but it was on a lower level compared to last year. And in addition to supplier bonus, we of course have mixed effects also when it comes to customer segment and also customer size. The main explanation, the main mixed effect comes from a larger decrease from SMEs.

So the underlying trading margin is stable? Yes. And always in Q4, we have, as I think you all remember, a final effect of the supplier bonuses. We are very prudent throughout the year. Even if we work with forecasts, what we forecast we will get in supplier bonuses, we are very, very cautious and prudent how much we take into the result during the running year. And a group like ours is most healthy when it grows. So when we in real terms are purchasing less, the supplier bonus effect is less in this Q4. So we used to have a more positive effect than we had this year, but it has nothing to do with the trading margin. It's more how we are cautious throughout the year in a difficult market. We have bought less from our supplies and thereby have a lower supplier bonus. That's the effects you can see in Q4.

Well, we understand. And when you look at the, I think you elaborated already on it, that when you look at the different verticals and the different segments, is it the same trend as before that you have basically stable kind of margins within the different segments? Is this still the mixed effect, the net-net that is playing out here? Yes, that's true.

The same picture as last quarter. We could more or less copy the previous quarterly report. It's exactly the same trend.

And when you look at the comments about a slightly weaker demand from green tech public segments and so on affecting you in the quarter, have you seen that normalized coming into this year already or is it still sluggish out there?

If you take the green tech sector, we are not expecting that to pick up in the short term. Some of them are more known than others if we read the papers, which one they are. And we are on the forefront of many different offers in the small service and the clothing and how we work with difficult large customers. And that's why we are attractive for those types of companies. And sometimes they develop nicely and sometimes they have difficulties. So we don't expect some of them to bounce back a lot in the near future. On the other hand, they are not the most profitable customers from a gross margin perspective, as we have communicated earlier. So it's no big worry in that sense.

So, yeah. And looking at the challenge that a couple of other players have had in Q4, reservation against Norvalds and so on. But have you managed to keep that at the normal level or not?

If you want to have lectures on chapter 11, you can call me because we are super expert in that now. Though there's a lot to be done. If both parties want to, you can develop nicely together and reduce risk nicely, which we have done. I think you're referring to Bravida among others. And we have a very small, reasonable exposure. good development jointly. So we are not in that situation.

Excellent. And you talked a lot about Batterielagret and presented it very nicely. How do you see that unit to develop within Aligo? What can you do to speed up growth? Or what is the target for city game plan?

Very good question. And we are saying that when we take these profile companies or the welding companies but will not be integrated into the group. And the same thing with Vatterilaget, which will not be integrated either into the SEDOL structure. It should be lust driven. They should want to. And if you left that force free, it happens a lot. So there was a first management team meeting yesterday. And that's a lot to help and assist these companies and for us to learn from. And we're taking it cautiously not to ruin anything, which is wonderfully nice and profitable. But of course, we can look at the supplier base. You can look at how you run the businesses. There are many, many ideas we are pursuing, but we are doing it very cautiously because it's a well-run business. We do not intend to run over to Gothenburg and tell them how to do the business. So it will be... driven in a structured way.

Excellent. And finally, looking at gearing coming after 2.4, the board, I guess, is taking a proactive decision, cutting the dividend to keep resources in the company as you're also alluding to the acquisition pipeline being attractive. So is that the way we should see it, that you are trying to keep resources to continue to drive the acquisitions forcefully?

Absolutely. And everybody we talked to throughout the year has been signaled to us that please put the money to work when you can make good effects of it rather than paying out dividends. And we discussed it and arrived at uh the same percent or even one percent more but then it's uh 1.5 seconds less which is the board's proposal uh which we think is very well balanced and as you say giving the the uh the background from 2024 and the pipeline we see going forward that creates room to do more acquisitions i mean that that lowered dividend is giving us some 75 million more in in acquisition power and that by that you could buy three fairly sized businesses. So I think it's well balanced, taking the shareholders' interest in consideration and also seeing the potential we see.

Very good. And just one final, if I may as well, then looking at 2025 now going into it, have you seen any changes in how the S&E clients are behaving or working out there? I guess that should be one of the segments, hopefully seeing the quickest recovery if we get some sort of demand back into the market again.

Absolutely. And we talk to our sales people a lot and we talk to our customers a lot and we've done a lot of what you say, surveys. We just had the customer service coming back. We score extremely high. We have talked to the customers that have reduced the most in Sweden. The 400 customers that reduced their purchases from us the most. We were nervous that they went elsewhere. And the clear answer is we have less to do. Thereby, we have bought less from you. So it gives us a very confident signal back and it is more hopeful among that category of customers. But we cannot see that they have actually started to purchase much more. We have the number of customers in our shops are there, but they continue to buy mostly exactly what they need. But we've been through this before, and this is normally the signals you get in this phase of the business cycle. And if all the macroeconomics comes into place, it looks like it should be picking up during 2025, perhaps a year later than we predicted in 2023. So we hopefully can see it now second half of 2025. That's how we plan, at least.

Excellent. Thank you very much, and all the best out there. Thank you, Corian.

Same to you.

As a final reminder, to ask a question on the phone line, please press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type them in the question box and click Submit. Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our next question. Your questions come from the line of Emanuel Janssen from Danske Bank. Please ask a question. Your line is opened.

Good morning, Clayton and Irene. I hope you can hear me. Absolutely. Great. Already a lot of good questions from KJ, but I feel like reading the CEO wording and your mentioning that you potentially see maybe the market situation stabilize. Could you maybe give us some Some thoughts of, I mean, does it feel like Q4 was the bottom level in terms of demand as you end the 2025, both looking at demand and also the customer mix here going into 2025?

At least the first signals are, of course, that the development, the downturn is slowing down as the first signal, and then hopefully it bottoming out well what is complicating the picture a little bit for us which has quite significant effect those months is weather which is terrible to talk about weather and feels like we are we are excusing ourselves for the weather but it is also a factor if you take in the weather effect and you take into the signals we see and hear oh my god we for sure hope and plan for that It should not be much worse than this if we read the signals right. But we were fooled last time when we thought it will pick up in the second half of 2024. So we'll not write it in blood. And also, as I many times said, we have so many opportunities to do things on our own. A lot of this future success is in our own hands. And there I think we have still a lot to be done. But what we are launching now, own brands, services, more positive signals from the market, and when we come out of this weather situation, let's at least hope for that this is the low point.

Totally understand. Thank you. Do you think the leading indicator here in 2025, will it be maybe the consumer or will the small medium size customers be early in the cycle? Looking, for example, at Big Max or something?

Super good question. And as you know, throughout the years, we have tried to build a basket of leading indicators to explain the history. give us a better view of the forecast and we have tried to mix different KPIs. But what we always arrive at is that we develop very much in line with GDP, which you can drive a number of conclusions from. One being that perhaps our business is more consumer driven than we are. We don't sell to consumers, but our customers work to a large extent for consumers. I absolutely can look at the GDP development and the wellness of the consumer to be able to predict how we should develop at least. At least it's been like that historically. And that's what we look at. And as it looks, all three countries should have a good uptick in GDP in 2025 and also another step in 2026. So that's what we are looking at at least.

Yeah, great. That's very logical, I think. And looking at the different customer segments here, which one do you think will be the one that's our earliest in the recovery phase here? It's probably construction, etc. Exactly.

No, they will be the small construction customers. will be the first. They were the first ones to hit the brake. And I made many comparisons with my old father when he was running his business. And they will also be the first ones coming out of this. But it's everybody. I mean, if the general market turns up and the general economy turns up, then the transportation starts to increase. And we are not so small in the transportation segment. The agricultural segment, we are pretty big. So we have many sectors which all relate to the the wellness of the people in the country. But construction for sure, the small lovely construction customers I would imagine will be the first ones to increase the activity.

And you think also that the Swedish construction market are at the forefront here compared to the Norwegian and Finnish market here and I also assume that the majority of earnings also stems from Sweden and the construction segments.

Sweden is the country where we are by far the biggest in the construction segment within the group and also the most dependent on, so absolutely. Let's hope that all Swedes stop saving money and investing too much in other things. They need to build pools and terraces now to get the business running again.

Okay, cool. Maybe a last question from my side here is also relating yet again to this customer mix effect. I actually visited a product media company here about two weeks ago, one of the larger ones here in Stockholm and also in Sweden. And they were actually stating that the last couple of weeks they have seen increased demand from small, medium enterprises. And I mean, going into 2025 and also maybe look at Q4, do you think that is the effect in general lower from the negative customer mix effect in Q4 compared to the rest of the year? And also how should we view it going into 2025, you think? And maybe you can give us maybe a first glance of the first weeks of 2025 as well.

Yeah. No, the product media, profile businesses. First of all, I think we, and it's been half confirmed by New Wave Group, but I think we managed to acquire some really good players there. And they've had, also they felt some challenges during 2024, but felt businesses picking up. So I for sure hope that is a leading indicator. We have the profile media group of companies, And then we have the Marcus company, which is a specific subsidiary of ours, which is not integrated. So we look at those two, one group and then Marcus, to try to predict how will the development be for the Svedal workwear and personal protection development. But as you say, that part of the business has shown stability. They have also been hurt, but it shows stability. So let's hope that it finds that. things are improving.

Yeah, great. And also, coming back to the customer mix effect here in Q4, was there a less impact in Q4 compared to Q3 and Q2 and Q1, for example?

Slightly less impact. And since we're facing low comparables in 2025 compared to 2024, we will have some favorable mix effects coming from that in 2020. So it will not be worse.

And I assume now, of course, it depends on weather and other stuff as well, but I assume that the SMEs are not getting weaker at the moment, perhaps.

No, it feels like it's stabilized on a low level. We use the words stabilized in the CEO part of the report, and I think that as far as we dare to go, it You hear positive signals every time I'm in Tudors. I run down and I talk to a lot of customers and compare that with a half a year ago. Of course, what they say is more positive. But it also takes time to start up projects. One was complaining that two projects he was about to start up. It was stopped due to regulatory issues. So then he ran into a problem and had to stop his process. So many different factors. But generally, it sounds more positive. Absolutely.

Okay, well, great. Thank you very much, Klein and Irene. And good luck out there. And thank you very much for taking my questions.

Thank you. No problem. Very good.

Thank you. We have no further questions on the phone line. I'll now hand back to Jissa for any webcast questions. Thank you.

Let me try to read and talk at the same time. What mail questions has not been addressed? You're reporting that you're seeing the market situation stabilizing. Are you also seeing a customers of own products distribution any comments on the mix trends I think you answered that we see a little bit positive mix both of the decline is left in small and medium-sized customer and also that the green tech sector in a way is helping us because the larger customers is not developing as strongly as they were in a sense yeah but for sure it feels like the small customer sector is improving at least very good I think that was all the questions from the mains which were not addressed so if we move on down to some closing remarks so as I said and several of you said we can finally leave 2024 behind us we have put the last two pieces of our platform in place since we have now stabilized best bit our central warehouse in Norway, since going live with the Jeeves, our ERP system in Norway last Monday. So now that we have the same ERP system, the same logistic structure, so the two important pieces of the puzzle is in place regarding our platform. We have a strong position. We are driving sales like crazy. That's the only thing left for us to really push because everything else is there. Distribution works, the assortment works, everything is there. It's only within quotation marks to focus on sales. We have been doing a lot of acquisitions at the same time as we have been building this group, which I think is a sign of strength. We will try to take as good care as possible of those companies and we continue to adjust cost base and try to be more efficient and challenge what we're doing and try to do things differently. That is obviously that we need to continue to do. You should never stop doing that, of course, but we need to do even more in that area. So with that, the journey continues. Thank you for listening in. All from us. Thank you.