1/29/2026

speaker
Alex
Conference Host

Good morning. This is the Axfood Year-end Report 2025 telephone conference. And with me today are Simon Margulis, President and CEO, and Anders Lexman, CFO. In the investor section of our axfood.com website, you will find the presentation material for today's call. We encourage you to have that presentation at hand as you listen to our prepared commentary. After the presentation, we will be taking questions. A recording of this call will be made available on our website. So with that, I will now hand over the words to Simone. So please go to the queue. Go ahead, Simone.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Thank you, Alex. And good morning, everyone. We report another quarter of above market growth and stronger market positions for all our retail chains. By leveraging the strength of our business concept, we are also preparing for the future and investing in strategically important areas to continue attracting more customers, become even more efficient and strengthen our competitiveness. On this slide, you see some highlights for the quarter, highlights which we will cover during the course of this presentation. Turning to page three. So now, as usual, I will start with a brief market overview and the review of the quarterly development. Let's go to page four. Market conditions in Swedish food retail continue to be characterized by a high activity level in the quarter with intense competition and continued high price awareness among consumers. Overall market growth amounted to 4.5%. Statistics Sweden reported that the annualized rate for food price inflation was 3.5%. This level was somewhat lower on a sequential basis, and in absolute terms, the overall price level was quite stable. Growth in Axwood's retail sales amounted to 8.7% and 5.3% excluding city gross. Our growth was thereby once again above the rate of the market, both including and excluding city gross. Volume growth from increased customer traffic, strong customer loyalty and new store establishments contributed to the development. We have a long history of market share gains. With the Q4 performance, we have outperformed the market every quarter this year and are reporting our 11th consecutive year of market share gains. We are now on page 5. Consolidated net sales for Axel grew 4.4% in the quarter, with higher volumes and positive trends in like-for-like sales in all our retail chains. We acquired Citigross in November 2024, so during the fourth quarter we started analyzing their performance. However, only two months of the quarter, which is clear when you look at their comparison figures. So please go to the next page, number six. Group operating profit increased to 860 million SEK, and the operating margin was higher at 3.8%. Operating profit included items affecting comparability of minus 30 million SEK related to Slittergross. Last year, items affecting comparability pertained to a re-evaluation of our previously minority stake in Slittergross. Operating profit and margin on an adjusted basis, which excluded items affecting comparability, also increased. Adjusted operating profit was 873 million SEK and the adjusted operating margin amounted to 3.8%. The improved profitability was primarily driven by high sales volumes and good growth in both total and like-for-like sales, a stable gross margin trend and effective cost control. In 2025, we increased our focus on productivity and costs and implemented measures to improve efficiency within and between the group support functions. In the fourth quarter, we saw some effects from these measures through cost savings, not only in the various businesses, but also in joint group functions, which partly explains the positive profit development there. Let's now turn to Willis and page seven. Willis continued to outperform the market in the fourth quarter. Growth primarily came from higher volumes as a result of an increased number of customer visits and new store establishments. Willys continues to attract new members into its customer loyalty program, Willys Plus, and sees strong loyalty among its customers. Earnings grew to 467 million SEK, which corresponded to a stable operating margin of 3.7%. The increase in operating profit was primarily driven by the increased sales volumes, a stable gross margin development, and good cost control. Moving on to Hemshop and page 8. Hemships retail sales growth in the quarter exceeded that of the market. Hemships of volume growth, driven by increase in customer traffic, and in addition, a higher average ticket value, impacted the sales development positively. Operating profit was higher at 78 milliacek, and the operating margin also increased to 3.5%. The increase in operating profit was mainly driven by the increased sales, a somewhat high gross margin, and solid cost control. Earnings in the prior year was impacted by new store establishments. Turning to page 9. Citigröss demonstrated a positive performance during the fourth quarter. The financial comparison figures here obviously refer to the two months period November to December 2024. However, to give you a better understanding of Citigröss' underlying sales performance, sales growth numbers are calculated with the full October to December period 2024, in the comparison base. While total growth was impacted by store closures, like-for-like growth was solid and amounted to 3%. Citygross reported a profit for the quarter of 28 min on an adjusted basis, corresponding to an operating margin of 1.2%, with positive contribution from its like-for-like growth. In addition, structure measures and efforts to streamline operations contributed to the development. As a reminder, the fourth quarter is generally a strong quarter for hypermarkets. On a reported basis, operating profit amounted to 40 million SEK, which correspond to an operating margin of 0.6%. This included the items affecting comparability I just mentioned, which refers to structural measures, including discontinuation costs for stores and sales clearance within the non-food assortment. Turning to slide 10. Our restaurant wholesaler Snabjos delivered growth of 6% in the quarter, on both a total and like-for-like basis. Higher volumes through increased customer traffic had a positive impact on sales, in addition to higher average ticket value. In terms of profitability, the quarterly development was weak. Operating profit amount 35 million SEK, corresponding to an operating margin of 2.5%. A lower gross margin associated with temporary market investment was not fully offset by volume growth, which had a negative impact on the earnings development in a very competitive market. Next page, number 11. During the year, Dagab has developed the group's assortment of affordable, good and sustainable food, with a continued focus in the fourth quarter on ensuring that our chains can provide Swedish customers with a competitive offering. Dagab's fourth quarter net sales increased by almost 5%, driven by sales to Axel's own concepts. Operating profit amounted to 340 million SEK and the operating margin was 1.5%. Operating profit was negatively impacted by a low gross margin due to market investments and negative mix effects. The logistics center in Bålsta along with the High Bay warehouse in Backa and automation of fruit and vegetable warehouse in Lanskrona has significantly increased Dagab's capacity and efficiency in logistics. Work continues to optimizing our new logistics structure And later on in the presentation, I will come back to the next significant investment in our logistics structure, the facility in Kungsbacka that we plan to establish to increase capacity and efficiency also in the southern parts of Sweden. But before that, it's time for our CFO Anders to take you through the financials. We are now on page 12, but please let's go to the next page, number 13. And Anders, please go ahead.

speaker
Anders Lexman
CFO

Thank you, Simone. Net sales for the group increased by 6.1% to approximately 89 billion SEK, including city gross. Retail sales increased by 16.4% and excluding city gross, the increase was 5.9%, which was higher than the food retail market in total, where growth amounted to 4.5%. Operating profit excluding items affecting comparability increased 7.4% to almost 3.7 billion SEK. The operating margin excluding items affecting comparability remains unchanged at 4.1% where the Citigrass acquisition impacted the margin at minus 0.2. Then please turn to page number 14. During 2025, the cash flow was 345 million SEK, which was almost 300 million higher compared to last year. We saw strong underlying operating cash flow from both for the fourth quarter and the full year, mainly due to a strong operational performance boosted by positive working capital changes. Last year was impacted by negative calendar effects in working capital. The negative cash flow from investment activities of 1.7 billion SEK was substantially lower than last year, as last year was impacted by the city-gas acquisition. Excluding the city-gas effect, we have a higher pace in investments in our retail operations and a lower pace in automation investments compared to last year, since we now are through with our investment in the Bålsta logistic center. By year end, Exfood utilized approximately 2.7 billion SEK of our credit facilities compared to 3.1 billion SEK by the end of Q3 and 2.9 billion SEK at year end 2024. We are now on page 15. During the last couple of quarters, we have seen a positive trend in the net debt development. The net debt increased with the acquisition of Sittegross in Q4 last year and the dividend paid in March but is now below 2 and excluding IFRS 16 just below 0.5. The equity ratio amounted to 21.2% which was higher than last year and above the year end target of 20%. Total investments excluding leasehold and acquisition amounted to 1.7 billion SEK In 2025, during the year, we established nine new group-owned stores, three fewer stores compared to the previous year. Our investments in store modernizations have increased compared to last year. Please then turn to next page, page number 16. When we look at the capital efficiency, we had a negative development of our rolling 12-month net working capital. The impact of the Citigrass acquisition has increased the KPI with approximately 0.3 percentage points on a rolling 12-month basis, which implies a positive underlying development. Capital employed has increased over the last years, mainly due to the acquisitions of Bergendal Food and Citigos, as well as the investments in Bålsta. The level of capital employed increased slightly during 2025, mainly as a result of increased leasehold debt and equity. Due to the increase in capital employed, the return on capital employed decreased to 15.5% compared to last year, despite an improved operating profit. And thereby, I have come to the end of my presentation and hand over to you again, Simone.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Thank you, Anders. We are now on page 17, and it's time for me to give you an update on our strategic agenda and priorities. So let's turn to page 18. We have a clear house of brand strategy in our group, and it makes us unique in the Swedish food retail. We aim to deliver the strongest customer experiences, and we are present in all market segments with our different concepts. Our largest brands, Willys, Hemshöp, and Citigröss, made significant progress during the past year. With a clear focus on always delivering Sweden's cheapest bag of groceries, Willys once again took market share, increased its earnings and continued to expand with new store establishments. Willys has had a strong momentum for a long time and has excellent potential to reach even more customers. The aim is to open at least 10 new stores for Willys annually in the coming years. by also continuously creating an even better customer experience in stores through continuous upgrades to its new store concept 5.0. Helmshop also gained market share during the year while improving its profitability. This was achieved through a high pace of store modernization and continuous development focused on price value, sustainability, fresh products and meal solutions. For Citygross, it was a year of transformation with a series of improvement initiatives in many areas. Important steps forward were made, resulting in improved like-for-like sales growth, a lower cost level and positive earnings trend. We continue to work according to plan to strengthen the chain for the future, to become a truly competitive player in the hypermarket segment with the aim to achieve profitability at some point during the second half of 2026. We are now on page 19. To create the right conditions for our retail concepts to be able to succeed on the market, we leverage our strength as a group and focus on six strategic development areas. We elaborated these during the capital market stay in September, and I would now like to go through some of our most important strategic priorities within this going forward. So please turn to page 20. We strive to offer the market's most attractive assortment, a highly relevant offering that makes affordable, good and sustainable food available to everyone. This work includes both branded products and private labels, but now I will focus more on the latter. Because our extensive range, including the Gantt and Eldorado brands, is a significant competitive edge, these products contribute to profitable growth by creating an attractive and instinctive assortment that strengthens the offerings within our various concepts. Our products represent quality and innovation, and we focus a lot on sustainability and health, with a wide selection of sustainability labels and organic products. In addition, we have a large selection of products with Swedish origin, with more than 400 products under the Garant brand. During 2025, we continued to develop our private label offering and launched approximately 270 new products. Our total private label share of sales was diluted by Citigröss that has a lower private label share than Viljus & Hemsjö. The private label share continued to increase in each chain, a trend that we've seen for a long time. And in particular, now we see a strong growth also in Citigröss. We are now on page 21. We have an attractive store network, a network that we will continue to develop in the coming years by accelerating the pace of expansion while maintaining a high rate of modernization of existing stores. During 2025, we established nine new group-owned stores. On a net basis, we have thereby expanded our network of group-owned stores with more than 100 in the last 10 years. And we aim to continue on this path also going forward. In addition to store establishments, we have continued to modernize and refurbish existing stores in a high pace. This is really about creating inspiring store environments and great experiences to drive customer traffic and profitable growth. Looking at major refurbishments from 2021, sales from these stores increased significantly more than the market and operating profit also increased. I also want to elaborate on how our House of Brands strategy creates flexibility and opportunities in terms of our store presence. We can maximize the opportunity on each local marketplace by having the right concept in the right place. Last year, we converted two Citigroup stores to Willys because we saw a better opportunity for Willys to be successful in those areas. These conversions have proven to be highly successful as both stores have experienced a substantial sales increase following the conversion. Adjusted for inflation, sales in the Bromma Block store in Stockholm was more than 50% higher during the September to December period last year compared to the same period the year earlier when the store was operating under the Citigrass brand. And the corresponding increase for the Borlänge store was more than 70% during the November to December. This really highlights the strength of our house of brand strategy and how we can leverage our strong portfolio of concepts. Next page, number 22. Last year, we communicated that we are planning to establish a new highly automated logistics center in Kungsbacka to strengthen our supply chain in southern Sweden. During the fourth quarter, we signed the agreement for the automation equipment with Vitron, a market leading dynamic warehouse and order picking systems. We have collaborated with Vitron for several years as they have been our supplier of the automation solution in Bålsta. The total contracted investment will amount to 265 million euros during the period 2026 to 2031. On this slide you can see how the investment undertaking is spread out in the next couple of years, which we communicated just over a month ago. amount for 2026 is included in our capex guidance that i will provide you with shortly we are continuing to build for the future and this new logistics structure will create capacity for us to continue to grow and become even more competitive we are now on page 23. at axel we have a highly ambitious agenda when it comes to sustainability and health These are integral parts of our operations and our scope is the entire food supply chain. During the fourth quarter, we reached a significant milestone as we completed our transition to fossil-free transports, both in our own operations and in procured transports. This is truly a great achievement and I am proud that we as a group have chosen to take the lead this way to reduce emissions. We now exclusively use renewable fuels or electricity, and we also have target to electrify 50% of our own transport fleet by 2030. Now, while the impact on emissions from transition is not fully reflected in our numbers for the year, emissions from transports nevertheless went down substantially in 2025. And looking at the last five years period, transport emissions have decreased with approximately 70%. Another highlight during the quarter was that we applied to have three climate targets validated by the science-based target initiatives. And we are now on page 24 in the presentation. We have been working on this for some time now, as you may know. For us, it is of course important that goals and ambitions are worked through thoroughly. And during the process, we identified a need to develop and improve our existing climate reporting, mostly regarding scope three. This work now enables us to better establish a transition plan to show how we will reduce emissions in the long term. We commit to reduce emissions in our operations by at least 70% by 2030 compared to 2024, to have at least 70% of our suppliers set science-based climate targets by 2030, the latest, and to reduce flag emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared with the base year 2024. Our application will now be revised by the SPTI and we will come back to you when we have our targets validated. Please turn to the next page, number 25. Today we are issuing the outlook for 2026. We are continuing to invest in our business to strengthen competitiveness and create value for all our stakeholders. Investments are expected to amount to 2.2 to 2.3 billion SEK excluding acquisitions and right of use assets. The largest part of this is related to recurring investments in our operations and it also covers expansion through new stores. However, the amount also includes 470 million SEK automation investments for our future logistics center in Kungsbacka, as I just mentioned. To encourage even more customers to shop with us, we will continue to maintain a high rate of new store establishments in 2026 and beyond. Our ambition this year is to expand the store network by 10 to 50 new group-owned stores in 2026. In addition, we want to continue attracting franchisees and add new retailer-owned stores to expand our total store base. To further strengthen Citigrass, we will incur 50 million SEK in structural costs in that business in 2026, which will be classified as items affecting comparability. These costs are mainly related to its store base. Moving on to the dividend and page 26. Axwell has a strong financial position and the board of directors will propose to the annual general meeting an increased dividend of nine SEK per share. The dividend will be split into two payments, SEK 450 per share in March and SEK 450 per share in September. The dividend proposal corresponds to 83% of profit after tax, well in line with our dividend policy. Now turning to the final page of this presentation, page 27. So let me sum up. We are summarizing a quarter and year in which we attracted growing numbers of customers with increased loyalty and strong positions in all our market segments. We are well positioned to remain the challenger and feel confident about the year ahead. We operate in dynamic markets that continue to be dominated by a strong focus on price value and our aim is to continue to grow more than the market. That is because we have a strong business model and structure that create opportunities and competitive advantages. For us, the key to drive long-term growth and profitability is based on customer traffic, loyalty and volume growth. We have seen a strong development in all these areas over a long period, also in 2025. Based on our great commitment and passion for food throughout the organization, we are leveraging the strength of our business model. And that was all for today, so now please turn to page 28 and I hand over to the operator to open up the line for questions. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Magnus Rahman from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Thank you very much. I think I would like to start asking about Citygross. where we now see if you look at the second half of 25 in total it's a rather clear profitability that you reach H2 25 on an adjusted EBIT basis. Could you elaborate a little bit on this in comparison to the target you set out to reach break-even H2 26? Should we view it that you have already achieved this target now one year earlier or Is it a very big seasonality difference here that you want to highlight when we look at H126?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Yeah, thank you very much. Within Citygross, we are in a transition, as you know. We are in the middle of our transformation plan and to do the turnaround. Our aim is to create a really strong core and to create a strong and competitive player within the hypermarket segment. And this is, it comprises a lot of different initiatives, everything from the operating model to the store concept, to the customer offering. We also made We also made things, restructuring the organization, etc. We're also investing in price. And within the fourth quarter, there are seasonal effects for the hypermarket segment that are in general stronger in the fourth quarter. However, we are taking really, really good steps with Instinctive Growth. But as we understand, we are in the middle of a journey and it can go up and it can go down. And we are reiterating that in the second half of this year, we will create an attractive and profitable play within the hypermarket segment. So we are reiterating that goal.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

All right. Just another thing here on the like-for-like sales growth, and forgive me if you've already mentioned this early in the presentation, I came in a bit later here, but you state in the table 1.5% like-for-like sales growth, and I assume that that relates only to the November to December period. Can you say if that is correct? And then in the text you write October to December 3.1% like-for-like growth.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

is is do i interpret this correctly and so in that case september sales i i assume must have been much stronger to start with yes you have interpreted correctly so uh three three percent in the quarter and and one point five for the november december period uh and that's actually as we talked a lot before that's actually where it all starts we have to have a positive growth in like for like and that's why we're really really happy to see that during the quarter but because considering that i guess that in the mix of these months in the in the normal quarter i guess that the last quarters i

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

November and December must be should be larger nevertheless October I think I said September I mean of course October October must have been very strong for the full quarter figures to reach three plus percent while the November to December was only 1.5 is that correct?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

We don't actually guide you monthly, and it's also about how you say what kind of comparison figures you have, of course. I would say that we're really happy that we see the positive light for light growth that we see now for some time for city girls. And as I told you, it's a journey, and that's That's why we're reiterating profitability somewhat in the second half this year, because it's learning and we're doing and taking large measures and initiatives to really create and building this strong core. And that's why you have to look at the trend here, because some months it can go up and some months it can go down when we're doing so much changes as we do. So for us, it's about looking at the trend, and it starts with the like-for-like growth, but we also made a lot of initiatives regarding cost and organizational changes and also operating model, and now we're also developing the store concept. So I think it's important to see the trends, and also I think your two questions maybe are linked. We're on a journey. It can go up. It can go down since we're doing so much changes in this video.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Right. Right but the trend if you look at two figures then the trend in like-for-like sales growth has been very stable because you've been delivering now on full quarters three quarters in a row with above three percent positive like-for-like growth and you delivered three quarters on sort of adjusted operating profit level you delivered three quarters in a row with sort of improving results then flat in Q3 and now a clear profit in Q4 so Thank you for the remarks and then I'd like to ask on Dagab. You mentioned here as one explanatory factor to the weaker margin price investments from Dagab in the quarter and I guess maybe it's been a special quarter to a certain extent for example with the PRO survey taking place in this quarter. Can you elaborate if you think or see that there were some temporary factors as relates to price investments that weighed on Dagab's margin in Q4?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

To start with, the PRO doesn't have anything to do with this. And we do, as we always do, to deliver for wheel-less-to-sheep-as-bag grocers in the market. And also for Hemshed and Citigrass, it's important to be highly competitive. So I'd say PRO doesn't... I know we don't take that much measures about Piro, but to start, but to go to Dagav. In Dagav we see really good effects of the investments we made in the logistics, both in Bålsta, but also the fruit and vegetable in Landskrona and the new high bay warehouse that we have automated in Backa. However, as I said, we have a negative effect in the margin. And that is due to both market investments, but also mixed effects. And to elaborate a little bit more about mixed effects, when we have changes in customer behaviors and also volatility, commodity pricing, and then that can vary from month to month and quarter by quarter. For instance, we have very, which we are happy to, we have good volume growth between fruit and vegetables, where we also have had deflation. And that has a negative effect in the earnings in Daga. So I think it's important to look on our result as a group, how we actually play our business model in the most efficient way. And by that, we're once again gaining market shares the 11th year in a row and also improving our profitability as a group.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Right, but do I interpret you rightly that when you then mention investments you speak about capital investments that have been capitalized and then leading to a higher depreciation impacting results. Is that what you mean?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

No, it's market investments. Dagab is a supporting company for all our customers, and their role is to help all the customers to be really competitive in the market and to have the right conditions to take the market development. And that is what we mean with the market investments.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

exactly that was my feeling and then that means of course market investment means investment into reduced price I guess on certain merchandise for the retailers yeah it's to increase the competition yes and I mean so I mean the quite aggressive price cuts that you took on several items in conjunction with PRO, so we must have been impacting profitability somewhere in the chain, either in Willys or in Dagab, or both. Isn't that correct?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

I have to start. I don't want to talk about the PRO. I think Willis has handled those questions. Willis, there are so many methodological errors in that survey, so we don't actually take that much action about that. For us, I think it's important to put our performance in the perspective of a high competition in the market from all the players, And I think that we are navigating that quite successfully since we're gaining market share. We have a high competition in the market and we also have a consumer that is very conscious with a high focus on price and price awareness. And that's the market that we are navigating quite well, I would say, since we're gaining market share and strength of positions with all our brands, our strong brands.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Great. Then on Snabgross, you had a material setback in profitability in Snabgross here in the quarter, and you mentioned temporary market investments here. So can you elaborate a little bit on that if perhaps you already did when you ran it through in the presentation, but for a reminder here on Snabgross?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Yeah. Snabrios made some market investment that they didn't really get ROI in volumes. They had a good growth with 6%, but it actually wasn't enough to cover the negative effects in the margin and in the profitability. So they made a weak performance for the quarter.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

So we should interpret that these will not be repeated, these type of investments then?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

As you know, I don't give any forecast on the segments, but... No, no, without forecast, but speak for yourself. Right.

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Okay, great. And then just looking forward, or not forward-looking statements, but looking at what we all know about the halving of the food VAT from 1 April, do you think that this could... I mean, we've had a period now where we had very high inflationary pressure where we see consumers trading down, so to speak, in the mix of what they consume. Do you think that the relief from the half food variety might impact the mix in the other direction in any way?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

To start with, we look very positive on the reduction of the VAT. I think we have a consumer that has been very cautious and we still think that the consumer is cautious and it's very difficult to make any forecasts on how the consumer will act. They are a little bit scarred from the price shocks that we have experienced the last years and also We have a pretty high unemployment in Sweden. So we think the customer is still cautious and focus on price and price value and value for money. However, we hope that we will get some positive mixed effects in the way that we see, that we're hoping to see more increased, how to say, purchases in within sustainability and sustainable labeled food. But that's what we're hoping for. think it's difficult to give you any forecast the customers is still very price conscious and there is a high competition in the market so so it's difficult to give you any forecast on this right and just a final one here on on the falling international food commodity prices seen now for four months straight and uh and also topped by the the strengthening swedish krona

speaker
Magnus Rahman
Analyst, SB1 Markets

Have you seen so far any effect as related to your sort of dog up purchasing from this?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

If you look upon the commodity we see as you said we had a higher inflation in the beginning of the year due to dairy, meat and also to a coffee and that was stabilized the second half of the year and also with the strengthening of the swedish currency of course it's it's positive but more in a longer term perspective for the consumers uh since there's so many things that are affecting the prices but of course in the long term perspective it's positive for the consumers when we see more stable development in the commodity pricing and also as a strengthening in the swedish currency right those were all my questions thank you very much thank you very much

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

The next question comes from Rob Joyce from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Hi, thanks very much for taking the questions. I'll go one by one as well. Just following on from the last one. So in terms of inflation you're seeing in the market, you mentioned deflation and fruit and veg. Are we seeing slowing inflation further as we start 2026?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

It's difficult to give any forecast on the pricing since there are so many things that are affecting. We also have a geopolitical situation. We have also, how do you say, the climate changes. Sorry. Climate changes are also affecting. But we have had more stable pricing since this summer, I would say. How it will end up in the future, it's very difficult for me to give any forecast on.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

But in terms of the first month you've seen, are we seeing prices sort of stable versus December, or are they falling slightly further?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

I can't give you a forecast on the pricing since there are so many things that are affecting the pricing.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Okay. And then maybe you mentioned competitive intensity of the market. Are you seeing any changes in the more recent months? Has that competitive intensity stepped up? Any players you'd flag?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

I would say we have experienced a very competitive market for the last couple of years, I would say, and there has been a competition from all the competitors, I would say. So we're still in a market with high competition and also a consumer that is very price sensitive and cautious.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

OK, but no real changes?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

No, we're pretty much in the same market as we've seen for the couple of years now.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

OK. And then in terms of the VAT cut, is your expectation that that will be immediately fully passed to consumers?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Yes, definitely. The VAT is the tax, as you know, that the state puts on the food, so I mean that is digitally transferred to the consumers.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Okay. So, okay. And in terms of historical price elasticities, I mean, I guess we don't have much data on when prices actually fall. But do you have any sort of data which suggests, you know, how consumers might react to a 6% fall in prices or 4%? I'm sorry, 5% probably works out.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

No, it's really difficult to know what the customers will do actually. We think it's very positive because the consumer have decreased their economy in the last years and by the lower VAT on food, that will increase the buying power for the consumers. How they will act is difficult to forecast since As I told a little bit before, they're scarred from the years of high, the cost shock they've had, high employment. So if they will save the money or they will buy other things than food or if they will place more money in food, it's really difficult to forecast. So we actually don't do any forecasts. And it's difficult also if you analyze different markets because it's been different situation also in these markets.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Okay. Understood. And just looking at the sort of the DAGAB numbers now and how that, you know, I guess you're sharing the savings more broadly across the group, do you think as we look to the next investment in the supply chain, we should think about that more as a kind of just cost of doing business? You know, you need to make this investment to maintain competitiveness rather than thinking about this as a sort of, you know, 300, 400 million sec boost to EBIT, potentially the people that we were thinking about before from the last project.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

We are still negotiating regarding the building, the facility, and when we have everything set, of course, we will come back to you with the full scenario. But for us, it's important both to secure capacity for the southern part of Sweden from 2030 going on forward, but also it's about strengthening our competitiveness. When we will open the warehouse, we will have the same cost level as we have today, of course. But then, of course, we will improve our competitiveness over time.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

I just want more broadly just thinking about the environment. I know over here in the UK, when there have been certain cuts on business rates, for example, the grocers in the UK didn't really take those to the bottom line. What's the political environment about, you know, if there is a volume increase in grocery, is there room for profitability to improve or is it very much focused on driving that consumer experience?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Could you rephrase the question?

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Just, I guess, with the VAT cut and the sort of The overall environment, you know, when these cuts are given to grocers, you know, the expectation is generally the consumer sees the benefit. And I've said in certain markets we cover as well, we've seen those benefits largely just pass to the consumer. But in terms of the potential volumes increasing on the back of lower prices in food, you know, do we think that gets further invested in the consumer or can that drive the bottom line?

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Now I understand. So first of all, as I said, it's difficult to make forecasts how the consumer will act. But the other part, we have our long-term target goal for our group set to 4.5%. And that will come from us to continue growing, attracting more customers, and also improve our efficiencies within the entire group. So, I mean, we're aiming, and that's a long-term goal for us to strive towards. But also, I think it's important if you look upon our figures last year, and if you excuse sitting us, we're actually having a margin of 4.3%. So we're heading towards our goal, but it's set on a long term.

speaker
Rob Joyce
Analyst, BNP Paribas

Okay. Thank you very much.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

speaker
Simon Margulis
President and CEO

So that was all for today. Thank you all for your good questions and see you in the next quarter.

Disclaimer

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