Fastighets AB Balder (publ)

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Baldur's conference call for the second quarter 2025. Today will be Eric Schelin, CEO, presenting and myself, Jonas Eriksson, Head of Investor Relations. And I'll hand the word to Eric to show us a few slides and then we will open up for questions.

Thank you, Jonas. Balder at a glance. We are a Nordic property company to 226 billion of portfolio value. So it will be flat rating. We have 95% occupancy and NAV per share right now is at 91.2 kronor. and that is an interesting figure and from the beginning 20 years ago we have managed to compound at an annual rate of 25%. The portfolio is a bit over 50% resi and slightly below 50% commercial and the commercial is very diversified. Looking at the Q2 figures we have a rental income increase of 7% and the NOI increase of 9% and profit from property management 6% better than Q2 last year. Maybe more interesting is to look at the earnings capacity that is now 10% better than one year ago per share. So hopefully we are on the way to a bit stronger increase in the earnings trend. And like for like rental growth on the whole company is 2.9 percent. Looking at current earnings capacity, it is up 200 million from the last quarter. And you can see two components. We have a slightly higher NOI and we have slightly lower net financial cost. And financial cost is, of course, a bit lower interest rates from the central banks that will have an effect on us. And you can see at the bottom of this slide earnings per share that is now 555 and actually the best figure we had so far. As I said previously, the very diversified portfolio. If you look at geography, it's dominated by the largest cities in the Nordics, Helsinki, Stockholm, Gothenburg and Copenhagen. And if you look at property types, Resi 53% and then it's very diversified. We have office, retail, hotel, industry, logistics and so on. We have no single category or geography that can make a huge impact on the whole company. So the diversification gives a good stability on the top line. Looking back, you can see here our earnings, cash flow earnings, profits from property management, where we have had a good increase if you go back in time. But we have two, three years, maybe four. were sort of a flattish development and that is only because of higher financing cost the underlying income before financing cost is on an increasing trend and has been all the time and obviously if interest rates goes doubles it will have an effect and maybe later on if rates go down you will have the strong effect at the other on the other side but as said earnings capacity now stands 10 better than a year ago and all the other metrics at the same time have it been stable or slightly improved occupancy very flat around 96 or this quarter is 95 but it's not the percent it's actually tenths of a percent that can make this figure be rounded up or down. And also leverage slightly under 50.

Looking at the financing, it's a fairly stable development, as you would expect. We continue to have about 53% of our financing in bank loans. And you may notice that we have a little bit more available liquidity this quarter compared to last. That's just a matter of planning for upcoming maturities. We have some more maturities than usual in the next 12 months, so it's simply an effect of that. The interest rate fixing and hedging ratio is very stable. As you would expect, it doesn't change too much from quarter to quarter. As you can see here, and this is largely effect of obviously our secured bank funding, but our encumbrance ratio has been more stable now, obviously came up during the years when we increased the bank loans. But now it's at 23.9%. We've said before that we think it will be around this level, 23 to 25% over time. And the current mix of funding is largely where we want to be as well. We've talked in the past quite a lot about trying to smooth out our maturity structure on the bond side. As many of you know, the Swedish bank financing is typically quite short, even though we have bank financing in other countries as well. But it still means that we would like to have a fairly smooth maturity structure on the bond side. And we have one year left in 2027 with clearly more maturities. And then other than that, we're trying to top up with new funding in the longer maturities to maintain sort of lower than 10 billion maturities per year, if we can do that. We have not done any large issuance this quarter, a few taps in the SEC market. And then we have also, we obviously did our Euro bond in Q1. So that's a large one we've done this year. Going forward, we will continue our path of issuance in the Swedish market. We updated our green framework recently. So the next longer maturity bond issuance in Sweden will probably be under that new framework, a green one. And then we will look to come back to the Eurobond market late this year, early next year, around that time. And this is more of sort of a structural overview of the funding and capital side. I think it's interesting just to look at where we are in terms of NetDevTA and some of the other metrics on an earnings capacity level rather than trailing 12 months. And as you can see, we're following the same trend as we have before with earnings before interest rate expenses growing quite a lot more than our indebtedness. And that's what we want to see in order for the net debt EBITDA to come down towards our target. And the trends are continuing largely in the same direction as we've seen before as well. Here, just a note that the convertible bond obviously is part of our maturity structure. When that is converting, assuming that we are above the strike price, that will obviously have a very positive effect on the indebtedness numbers as well. In terms of funding strategy, there's really no change compared to previous quarters. We continue to have the same long-term view. and continuing to issue in SEC where we can and when there is demand. We've also been quite careful in only issuing in the established public nodes or the ISIN codes that we have in public deals in SEC to maintain sort of liquidity as good as we can. And that's the way we continue to work in the Swedish market. And here's just an overview of how the long-term development is of our net asset value, profit from property management and the share price. I think I'll stop there and we'll go to questions.

you wish to ask a question please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue if you wish to withdraw your question please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad The next question comes from Jan Eerfelt from Kepler Shoebrew.

Please go ahead. Okay, thanks for taking my call. My questions, good morning. I actually have four questions. And I thought the Finnish market, if you look at the Sato report this morning, the headline states that the oversupply in the Finnish market continues. Could you elaborate a little bit on this situation in Finland?

Yes, the case is exactly that. It's been taking a bit longer time than we thought, Jan. But I think the long-medium-term outlook is the same, that we will see a more positive trend. We would have expected it maybe slightly earlier, but I think maybe one or one and a half year ago, our best guess was actually the second half of this year. So, I think we're finally coming close to a foundation where it's getting better.

I think what you can see, Jan, as well, is that it's quite different in different locations in Finland. You have some places where they need to buy forward to come down, and there you can see the number of vacant apartments going down pretty quickly. Whereas others, there's still been some supply now in the first half, notably Helsinki and Turku. And there, the number of department is still a bit higher. But I think you can start seeing it in different locations or locations that things are actually moving in the right direction. But for the market as a whole, there's been some supply during the first half now.

And also some competition. And our guess is that Koyamo will show lower vacancies.

Okay. But should I interpret that the market imbalance has been pushed from H2 this year to H1 next year?

No, I'm not sure about that. I'm still... I still think we will see a better trend even the second half this year. But I mean, it's also competition between companies and the other big competitor will have higher vacancies and I think they will show lower and that also have some effect on our figures.

Thanks. My second question regards the transaction market and I just wonder if you could comment on the situation there. The price tags that are discussed, are they more or less in line with the booked values or above or below or what you see there?

Yes, I think you're right about that, Jan. We see much more activity, much more discussions. Price level seems to be, in the normal case, quite okay between buyer and seller. I think even there that we will have, unless something new crazy thing happen, I think we will have more activity second half of this year. so um no i think it's better than yeah good outlook to have more transactions if that is good or bad you can also you can of course argue about that but i think there will be more in in general okay and could that be a driver for lower yield transactions or maybe maybe in some segments i don't know but i think we're quite stabilized that is my best guess yield's gone up a bit you know from before and I think they are quite stable and now there will be more transactions and then later on values will depend on the underlying performance okay um holding on to the transactions market in what in which country do you see the best acquisitions possibilities We look everywhere, but right now, I think we have the most activity on many small transactions in Finland and Norway for the time being. But we are looking everywhere all the time.

Okay, great. And my last question regards your LTV level. It's a little bit below 50%. If you acquire more, could that figure go up to maybe 52, 53% or 50%? Yeah, of course.

There's nothing stopping us as such, but I think we will have the level roughly the same. But we can invest quite a lot by just using, you know, incoming cash flow. I think in the medium term we can invest cash flow and then we will have stronger figures as we go along. And later on, if leverage comes down and all the other things is stronger, then we might increase. But medium term, I think we will invest, but not super fast, if you understand me.

I think the basic, Jan, I think also what we've said for a number of quarters to have a more balanced view on capital allocation to continue seeing the net debt FTA come down a bit, that still stands. So we'll obviously manage the cap expense and transactions based on that as well.

Okay, thanks for taking my question.

The next question comes from Lars Norby from SEB. Please go ahead.

Good morning. A couple of questions. First on the earnings capacity. I recall in Q1 you had a negative impact from FX on that when it was down 100 million. Now it's up 200 million. How much is the FX impact in the second quarter?

I don't know exactly. What shall we guess Jonas? 50-100 million maybe?

Yeah, if even that, yeah. Something like that. It's not a big impact.

But let's say 50, 100 million, something like that, if we're guessing.

And just to be clear, in what direction? Positive?

Positive, yeah, because we earn money, you know, in Euro, Danish kronor. And if we sort of recalculate on a higher FX, it will be more Swedish kronor. It's as simple as that.

Obviously. Very good. Second question concerning the commercial leasing market, the non-receipt part that is. You don't provide any net letting figures. We all know that. What can you say about market conditions right now compared to three months ago? And have you had any significant new signings or extensions and for that matter terminations?

Now, on the commercial side, we haven't had any big things happening. And that is very rare in our case that it actually happens. So nothing dramatic there. But I think we have the same view as many other companies that is a bit more competitive on the high priced offices you know but but otherwise it's no big changes i would not say that but i think you have looked from company to company actually because you can say office but it's very big differences uh where it is and at price levels and and all of this as you already know of course So no, nothing special. It's more competitive, but I think even there, if the economy hopefully gets a bit stronger next year, it can go pretty fast as well to improve.

But I would say it's very competitive, but it's not a deteriorating picture compared to Q1, I would say.

Okay. Thank you for those from my question.

The next question comes from Staffan Bulow from Nordia. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning. I have a couple of questions. Starting off with a question on the deal with 1000 Apartments that Sato did. Could you provide some information regarding transaction price, geographic split and net initial yield on that transaction?

Yeah, the big, almost everything is in our core markets and located perfectly for us. So there were two small assets that were not geographically perfect fit, otherwise it was. But then I think we had an agreement not to communicate all the details with the seller, actually. But... It was the first time since 2016 that we actually made a purchase of properties. We've been building but we haven't been buying. So we think all in all that this is positive for the company and for the average sort of numbers. nothing dramatic and it will not change the picture much because 1000 apartment is a lot but I think SATO had 26 000 before this transaction so it will not move the needle but marginally positive for the whole picture of SATO and they have still very strong balance sheet and liquidity and everything after the transaction

If you want some guidance, Stefan, I think look at the number of apartments. So the fundamentals for the portfolio that was acquired is not that different from Satos own portfolio. So it's a fairly representative way of looking at it, I would say.

Okay thank you that's clear and then a question on the occupancy rate could you provide some more color on the occupancy rate change from 96 to 95 percent sort of what segments drove the change and also based on the the net terminations that you know about today how do you expect the occupancy rate to change in 2025?

yeah the change is actually maybe one or two tenths of a percent you know but we always put this in uh whole percentage i think last quarter was like 95.52 or something so maybe now it's 55 95.3 or so it's actually a very very small change um and my guess is that we will probably be back to 96 before long It happened maybe one year ago also that one quarter was 95 instead of 96. I think it was maybe one year ago or something like that.

Okay, I understand. Then the change is quite undramatic. Yes, very undramatic. And then, yeah, and the final question from me. Have you seen further pressure on bank margins in Q2 versus Q1? And can you perhaps provide a a number of the average bank margin released in Q2.

No, it's been fairly stable. It obviously differs a little bit depending on which market we happen to take up financing in one particular quarter. So if you look at the second quarter, I would say it was roughly 1.15, 1.2 average margin, something like that. But again, it might jump up and down by 10, 15 basis points between the quarters, depending on Whether we do more in Sweden, Denmark, Finland or Norway. And whether it's a sort of cash loan or RCFs, etc. But round about that level. So no real change. I would say Q1 and Q2 has been very similar.

Okay, thank you. Those were my questions. Thanks.

The next question comes from Fredrik Stensved from ABG Sundahl Collier. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, Eric, Jonas. A follow-up question on the Sato deal. Did that close when you announced it in the beginning of July? Yes. Perfect. And then maybe a broader question on that deal as well. The seller in this deal was a fund they had closed for investor distributions. I do appreciate your agreement to not give that much details, but do you see more opportunities like this from this type of sellers in Finland at the moment?

Maybe. I'm not sure about that. Maybe. We have nothing near term that we are doing right now, but might come later. There are several funds that have the sort of same issue with the redemption. But yeah, let's see.

Yeah, that's good enough. And then finally, maybe a detailed question. In your earnings capacity, the income from property management from JVs is flat sequentially. If I'm not mistaken, your shareholding in Brnova went below 20% during the quarter. At least I expected a sequential decline on this line. What makes up the difference? I presume it's not FX. I mean, I can see the FX rates.

No, it's a very good question, but we try to have this earnings capacity on a very sort of round numbers. So basically we try to have 100 million numbers up or down. as you can see so if it's I don't know let's say an example 25 million less then we will still round it up to 1.9 in this case so if it's not 1.9 maybe then it's 1.8 you understand me so I mean that's why it's sort of a big pencil not so detailed actually because we still have things moving around you know with FX and interest rates and everything so

But it's been a pretty decent performance by the other associated companies as well. So if you look at, you know, Entra recently reported pretty okay numbers. Trianum has been performing very well. So there's been a decent performance in the others and Vinnova is not that big.

Understood. That's very clear. Thank you. Thank you both.

the next question comes from then Celia from Kempin please go ahead hi good morning thank you for taking my questions first one on the balance sheet if I look at your leverage metrics you're now in line with your targets introduced a couple years ago but in light of the Norian bank distribution where would you like those metrics to be or maybe to put another way

where would you want these metrics post distribution so i think where where we are um and this we've communicated uh for a couple of quarters as well where we've been a little bit restricted has been on some of the s p metrics So notably, the one that would be impacted by the Norion distribution is the debt through debt plus equity. Their S&P has a limit of 60%. We're currently at 56.7, I believe, some change from last quarter. And the Norion distribution would increase that by one point roughly. So in theory, we could do the distribution already today, but given that we've now said that our best guess is that the first half of next year could be on the table, then we obviously want to strengthen that a little bit further. The other metrics I would say are more sort of internal targets that we we don't have any external restrictions on ourselves so that we can manage easier, I think.

Okay, very clear. And second question, a follow-up on the transactional market. So you mentioned there's the most activity in smaller transactions, but do you also see improving conditions in bigger transactions?

Yes, absolutely. What I was meaning was that we prefer to do a lot of small transaction. We think it's more interesting for us price wise. But if you want to do big, you can as well. But there's more can be more competition. And I don't know, we try to just allocate capital, you know, in the best way for the long term shareholder. And right now, I think it's better to do a lot of small transactions, but that can change.

Okay, very clear. That's all from my side. Thank you.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Emil Eckholm from Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Just a follow-up on Stafford's question. Can you say anything about the margins of the bank that is maturing within the next 12 months compared to what you're getting in banks today?

What's maturing is a mix of things that are older and obviously lower margin and things that were sort of bank loans that were originated sort of at peak margins in 2022, 2023. So it's a mix between that, I would say. So not that clear a trend. But there is a pretty good chunk. If you think that a lot of the Swedish bank lending is a three-year term market, then obviously what will mature now was originated during the fairly turbulent times at high margins. But that's not the only thing that is maturing. I just want to point that out.

But in total, it will not be any big changes.

No, it's not going to be big changes in total.

Okay, so the delta is relatively flat in total. Yeah. And then also, how much of the net financials this quarter are costs related to holding a high amount of credit facilities?

Oh, good question. I don't have that number from the top of my head because it very much depends on how much the average liquidity is during the quarter. And I haven't run those numbers, actually. We always try to look forward, looking 12 months and maintain an adequate amount of liquidity. But if you assume that on the margin, and this is not the guidance for the quarter itself, but just to give you the reasoning, If you assume that the marginal cost for keeping one billion extra in liquidity is sort of 30, 35 basis points for an additional RCF, then you have some sort of basic understanding of what the incremental cost is for holding more liquidity. But I haven't actually run the numbers to see what the average liquidity has been through the quarters.

That's perfect. Thank you very much. That was all for me. Thank you.

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Thank you very much for listening in and taking time in July to do this. Appreciate it. We're obviously available for the rest of the day for questions if you have any follow-ups as well. Otherwise, we will wish you a very good summer and talk to you after the holidays.