Bilia AB (publ)

Thank you for the introduction and welcome to Wilja's fourth quarter results presentation with CEO Per Havander, CFO Kristina Fransén and I Carl Fredrik Jeves. We also have our Jeopardy CEO Stefan Nordström attending today. We are happy to present a strong result with higher order intake for new cars, strong cash flow and even more solid financial position than last quarter. I will come back to our outlook at the end of the presentation. Here is our agenda. Per will start with the current situation in the industry, followed by Q4 numbers. Then Kristina will go through the financial situation, and I will conclude, like I said, with our outlook end of the presentation. So let's start, and I leave the word to Per Havander.

Okay, thank you, Carl Fredrik. Since Q3 in Sweden we have seen signs of better interest in new cars from private customers. In Norway we have had good demand from customers in the new car business, driven by good campaigns and new tax regulations, effective from 1 January this year. In Western Europe the demand remains stable. Most of our brands have strong campaigns, big discounts, attractive private leasing offers, especially in Sweden. The demand for used cars is on a slightly lower level in our countries, and we see some lower prices for all cars, especially for expensive plug-in hybrids and electrical vehicles. As we mentioned in the last report, the government in Sweden terminated all incentives for EVs approximately three years ago, and we expected a large number of incoming used electrical vehicles. Up until now, we have handled the situation in a good way. In Bilja, the stock of used car is on a good and balanced level in our countries. There is a good and strong demand in the service business in Norway and Western Europe with good booking times. In Sweden we see weaker activities with somewhat lower booking times. Part of the explanation is the last years of lower new cars sales and export of young used cars. The total car market in Sweden 2025 was almost 20% lower compared to an average market the last 10 years. During this period, there has been a shift in the car population to more older cars. Next, please. Net turnover was in line with last year. We report operating earnings of 450 million with a margin of 4.4% compared to 420 million last year. We report higher operational earnings for both the service business and the car business and higher profitability in Norway and Western Europe related mainly to new cars. Operating profit was 370 million compared to 351 million last year and included 23 million of costs related to our efficiency program that we launched during the quarter. This efficiency program is expected to generate savings of around 150 million. Earnings per share were 2.46 crowns compared to 2.10 last year. On this slide, you can see the quarter four profitability from 2019 to 2025 in each country. And in the middle, you can see Norway and a good improvement. On the right hand side, you can see Western Europe and its steady journey over the last years with a margin of 7.4% in the quarter. On this waterfall chart, you can see the different business areas. We have improved the earnings in the new car business and the service business and dropped a little bit in the used car business, but still on a good and profitable level. We are moving over to the important service business representing 78% of the earnings in the quarter. In all our countries, we see an improvement in profitability and with a better margin of 13.9% compared to 13.6 last year. We had a positive organic growth in the group driven by Norway and Western Europe. There were same number of working days in Sweden and Belgium, and one more in Norway and Luxembourg in the quarter. We report earnings of 395 million, which were 21 million higher than last year, and this was the best quarter ever. The order intake of new cars adjusted for acquired and divested operations was 30% higher compared to Q4 last year. As I mentioned, we have seen a little bit better activities in all our countries, especially Norway, which was impacted by the change in tax rules. However, also Sweden had a solid increase of order intake by 20% compared to last year. For the car business, we report operational earnings of 104 million compared to 80 million last year. The profitability from cars in Sweden was on a slightly lower level, and the higher result relates mainly to Norway. For used car, we report earnings of 41 million compared to 54 million last year. In historical perspectives, it's a good level. As I mentioned in the beginning, the stock of used car is on a good and balanced level in all our countries. The reason for the lower earnings was some more price pressure on used fully electric cars and some lower demand. We have increased our underlying backlog on new cars with 2,400 units, and today we have 13,500. Some of our brands have recently launched interesting new EV models, attracting lots of interest from our customers. For many of them, for example, the new BMW iX3 and the Volvo X16, we see a little bit longer delivery times due to the high demand.

So let's move into the financial position. During the fourth quarter, we reported a strong operating cash flow of 675 million kronor compared to just below 300 million kronor last year. It means that for the full year, we have created an operating cash flow of some 2.1 billion kronor. Cash flow is a key focus area for us and will continue to be so for the future as well. As a result of the strong cash flow during this quarter, but also during the year, our net debt excluding IFRS 16 at the end of the quarter amounted to some 2.2 billion kronor, which was almost 700 million kronor below our net debt at the end of the last year. Our ratio of net debt in relation to EBITDA excluding IFRS 16 was then 1.3 times compared to 1.7 times as at December 2024. Consequently, we are well in line with our financial target to have a ratio below 2.0 times. As of October 1st, we did repay our bond loan of 500 million kronor, which we refinanced during the first quarter this year by issuing a new bond amounting to 800 million kronor with a maturity term of five years. The repayment of the old bond was then made for our available credit lines. And at the end of the quarter, as a result of the strong cash flow, we utilized some 16 million kronor of our credit facilities amounting to 2.3 billion kronor in total. In November this year, the board of directors took a decision to repurchase own shares to a maximum of 1,250,000 shares at the maximum value of 150 million kronor. So during the fourth quarter, we did make repurchases of shares. In total, 446,000 shares at the value of 57 million kronor has been repurchased. So for the full year 2024, we had earnings per share of 8.22 kronor versus 7.19 last year. The financial target for the group is to distribute at least 50% of the earnings per share to the group. Our board of directors has made a proposal to the annual general meeting to increase the dividends from last year's 5.60 to 6 kronor per share, which is an increase by 7%. That also means that the proposed dividend comprises of 73% of the earnings per share for 2025. And the dividend will be made in four installments as we did last year. In the report for the fourth quarter, we also announced an update of our financial targets. Our service business that Per talked about previously and the car business is an integrated operations. Their operations are tied to each other and together they comprise our business strategy to be a full service supplier during the lifetime of the car. To further enhance strategic management and transparency, we have updated our financial targets for profitability. We have replaced our previous 5% operating margin target for the Group with two separate financial targets. For the service business, we have a profitability target that is a margin for operational earnings of 14%. And this is a target level that we have talked about earlier, both in our annual report, but also in different meetings such as our capital market days. For the car business, we have a new profitability target that is return on capital employed amounting to 8%. The return on capital employed that will be used will exclude IFRS 16 assets. This target is new and has been selected as it combines the focus on margin development with the focus on capital efficiency development. The car business is the segment within our business that takes most capital, typically cars, both new cars, used cars, leased cars and demo cars, where we target to have a return that equals our cost of capital. Information about the margin for operational earnings for the service division has been presented in our quarterly reports in the past. Information about return on capital employed for the car business together with the capital employed at the end of the quarter is included on page 28 in our report for the fourth quarter and will be reported on a quarterly basis going forward as well. Here you will also find a historical development for the last quarters as well. And combined, these two new financial profitability targets essentially correspond to our previous target of 5% operating margin for the group.

Good, thank you for that Kristina. Then let's go to what we believe the future will bring. We remain very focused on improving both profitability and operational efficiency. Our efficiency program implemented last year is according to plan, like Per said, and savings of 150 million will be fully achieved as earlier communicated. Profitability, cost discipline and capital allocation will continue to be core priorities across the entire organization. Like you heard, to strengthen our strategic direction and increase transparency for investors, we're updating our previous group-wide profitability target of 5% operating margin by splitting into two separate financial targets. This makes it easier to track performance, improves capital allocation decision and provides a clearer view of how we create value over time. Moving over to the car business, demand for used cars is currently weak with price pressure particularly on expensive electrical vehicles and plug-in hybrids. We believe the coming quarters may be characterized by similar features. Our used car inventories are at healthy level and the anticipated surge in used vehicles during the fourth quarter did not materialize to the extent we had feared. For new car sales, the start of 2026 is described by slightly softer demand, particularly in Norway, impacted by the change in tax rules affecting from 1 January, while corporate customers' purchasing activity remains stable. We saw a noticeable upturn in private customer interest during the third and fourth quarters, supported by a strong offering in the market. We believe we will continue to see increased activity from private customers along with car campaigns and launches of new cars and models. Especially some important EV launches we believe will support volume and at the same time serve as a new and compelling alternatives to our customers in the near to mid-term. Then in our important service business, we expect continued stable demand during the coming quarters. In Q4, the service business, as you've heard earlier, represented 78% of our operating profit. And we see good opportunities to continue developing our service business and through that improve customer satisfaction. Then briefly on consolidation and capital allocation. We have a long and proven track record of growing through M&A, which is an important part of our growth strategy. Currently, we remain flexible, balancing between acquisition, share buybacks, dividend, and deleveraging. We are evaluating opportunities daily with an aim to always strengthening shareholder value in the best possible way. Overall, we find valuation stable, sometimes a bit stretched by certain processes, why certain processes take longer than expected and why some do not materialize. But with a healthy balance sheet and efficient operation, we are ready for continued growth. This finalizes our fourth quarter presentation and we can now open up for questions.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. To enter the queue, if you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Andreas Lundberg from SEB. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning, everyone. I have a couple of questions. If I start with the efficiency program, I think you mentioned it, but I couldn't hear what you said about the savings in 2025, and how do you think that will play out the remainder of the savings in 2026?

We didn't give a specific figure for what the size of the savings are in 2025, but there is a certain amount of savings in there, right, because the program has started. We do expect that the savings will be fully materialized by the second half of 2026, which is in line with what we said also in the third quarter.

Okay, cool.

I thought you said something. I was misunderstood. A different topic, the clearly higher Norwegian registrations in November and December for new cars. How do you think that dynamic will play out when it comes to selling the cars and also delivering the cars if you're looking into 2026? Thank you.

If you look at the registrations in January, you see a huge drop now. I think the total market in January will be between 1,000 cars. And we see the order intake is much lower as well. So what we have said this morning that we think that because they changed the tax rules for 2026 to 2027, uh with the vat again so what we can see it will be a little bit slow demand now uh in quarter one and in the end of quarter two it will be better and better in order the order intake for new cars okay but the car that was registered you know in in before year end have all those cars been delivered already No, so we will deliver some of the cars in quarter one. So there is a correlation between registration and delivery of cars, because we register them in the end of quarter four.

In some cases, we have been able to deliver them, to hand over the keys to the customers. So those have been delivered straight after year end.

So it could be misleading to look at the registration data in the early part of 26.

The tax changes in Norway will continue so that's why we think it will be a new push in the end of the year because once again in for 2027 change the tax regulations.

In Sweden where the service demand was still a little bit slow, but we're still able to hike margins. Can you talk a little bit about how you improve the Swedish margins on the service side? Thank you.

yeah we have said we have seen a lot of years now with the weak total market of new cars and that effect so we hope 2026 we will increase the ordering take new cars again so if you look at the the newer used cars so it's 25 percent less if we are talking bilia's brand in in sweden from from one year to four years old cars and that is the most loyal customer so we see a little bit weaker demand for the moment but what we are doing now this we try to to to much more focus on the older car park cars like 7, 8, 10 years old to have some attractive offers for the customer.

But you can also say, André, as Karl-Ferik mentioned, we are working with the companies we have. We try to look at the process and how can we improve them. and that will continue. So we continue to work hard to improve the businesses we have, and that will be the focus as well.

Okay, so there's nothing particular or specific that's helping your possibilities in Sweden now?

I think like this, Andreas, you can't find in the workshop, you can't find one thing. It's a lot of different things.

Got you.

Lastly, on investments or capex, I think you have around 400 million in 2025. What's the best proxy for 2026? Thank you.

I think you should have the same level there. It could not be significantly different.

I want a little bit of it. You're referring to the momentum.

Cool.

Thank you so much. Thank you.

The next question comes from Matt's list from Kepler Shoebrew. Please go ahead.

Yeah, I thank you. A couple of questions from my side as well. Well, the new financial target there or looking at the performance of service, I mean, 14% represents still an upside on a yearly basis. And when do you expect to be able to reach the 14%? Is it sort of a a long-term target or is it more when these efficiency measures are implemented 150, could you say something there?

Yeah, we don't think we will do it in the next quarter, but it's more a long-term target. So in three to five years, we think we can achieve the target. Because as Carl Fredrik mentioned in his presentation here, some of the new acquisitions we have made, some of the companies, they are far away from the target for the moment. So we have a lot to do with some weaker companies we have.

Okay. Then just touching upon different things. The Swedish currency has strengthened somewhat there. Could you say something about the flow of cars there? Is it between countries, I mean? I mean in Western Europe you have an operation there. Do you see sort of flow coming back from there or is it sort of a neutral situation?

You're talking about export to import used cars? Yeah. I understand that. We see a little bit lower interest from other countries. If you look back two, three years ago, we export a lot of cars from newer used cars from Sweden to Germany, Belgium and other countries in Europe. Still, we see some export, but we don't see so much car coming back for the moment into Sweden now.

understood um then uh prophetic mentioned the mna opportunities there could you say something about i mean you have uh acquired a couple of commercial vehicle service units during 2025 is it within that segment you see more opportunities or is it sort of also in the car side that you have?

We say we would like to acquire more when we are talking trucks, Volvo trucks and if we will do make acquisition it will be the countries there we are and often with the brands we have already Because if we do that, we can take out a lot of synergies and we have the knowledge about the brands. So maybe in Belgium, maybe in Sweden, maybe in Norway.

Okay, great. Well, that's about all for me now. So I go back into... Thank you, Mats.

The next question comes from Alexander Silgestrom from Pareto. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Congrats on a strong quarter. First question from me is if you could share the share of the deliveries that was completed under the agency model as sales was a bit lower than our expectations in the car segment.

Let's see now what you have in mind. Did you mean that the sale was a little bit lower than you expected? And your question is if that referred to increased agency sale? Yeah, exactly.

Yeah.

Yeah. So I think what we've had, we've had a strong increase of the sale in Norway, especially that referred to sale that are conducted under the agency sale. So that is one of the reasons why the the sale through the car business is a bit lower than if you compare to the number of cars that has been delivered. So that's true. That's the reason.

Yeah. And can you share the percentage that's under the agency model compared to the franchise model in terms of deliveries so we can model it going forward?

Yeah, it's actually a little bit of a mixture between different brands, right? So it's not something that I think will be fixed going forward, but it goes a little bit between accessible. So I don't have that percentage, and I don't think it's relevant for the future.

But if I guess a little bit here, the wholesale, I guess now 85% in agency, maximum 15% of the units of new cars.

And then it varies a lot between countries and quarter by quarter.

Yeah, that's very, very helpful. And then on the margin targets here, I'm very good that you clarified between service and the car segment and just thinking a little bit about service here 14 percent margin target how do you think about this across the different geographies is it the same for each market or do you expect Sweden to over perform and then Norway and Western Europe to lag a bit and then for the group to get at 14 percent or is it viable for all geographies

The easiest way for us to achieve the target for the service business is to overperform in Sweden. And the condition is best in Sweden. So it's a little bit different between the countries. One example is the body shops in Belgium. Because we have a lot of negotiations in Belgium insurance company and they pay us less if you compare to Sweden is one reason why we can have a little bit lower performance in Belgium and Luxembourg.

But of course we can still see potential to improve in both Luxembourg, Belgium, Norway. So absolutely.

But often we have the best margin in Sweden. So it's a weighted average.

So it's a weighted average, right?

Okay, that's very helpful. And then in terms of Norway, what are you expecting there? Is it sort of 12%, something like that?

We are not sort of disclosing the targets for the different countries, but only the average.

Okay. And then maybe continuing with Norway, and you mentioned that you still have solid tax incentives in Norway for purchasing a new car in full year 26, and of course it's going to be a bit lighter here in H1 maybe, and then stronger in H2. If we look at the full year, do you expect registrations to, could they be flattish or even growing a bit here in 2026? What's your view?

um we had a record year 2025 we closed 180 000 new cars uh the forecast for for this year is a little bit lower around 160 165 000 new cars because it was a discussion from the government in norway in in quarter three about They will take off all incentives. If they have done that in 2027, it has been a record year. But now they do it in two years. So new incentives after when you come into 2028. So a little bit less total market this year compared to the record year last year. Still a very good market. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. So a little bit lower, but still on very high levels from a historical perspective. That's helpful. And then maybe just finally on the savings program, if you could talk about sort of the share that goes to service and the share that goes to cars, or it's mainly related to HQ. And then also, when will you reach the run rate savings? Is it in Q4 or Q3? And how should we think about facing here?

To start at the last question then, I think Q4, it will be all sort of included, right? And I think the majority would also be there in the third quarter, right? But fully into the fourth quarter. When it comes to the service division and the car business, I think it will be fairly even, right? Perhaps a little bit more into the service business, but fairly even, I would say, is a good sort of approximation to use.

Okay, that's very helpful. That's it from my end. Thanks a lot, guys. Thank you.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Stefan Sternholm from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Hi, Stefan here. Most of my questions have been asked already, but one on the service business. I mean, winter arrived quite late this season and Q4 was mild. I expect that had a negative impact on your service business. Is that right?

Yeah, you can say if you talk about body shop, when you have a mild winter, then it's a little bit tougher. And it's out of that perspective better when it's a hard winter. And also you can see when you talk about older cars, when it's really, really cold outside, you get more also into the workshop compared to a mild winter. So in that perspective, that's right.

So consequently, Q1 is better in that perspective.

When it's cold, it's an advantage.

The best is mild for a while, and then cold, and then mild again. That's the best.

That's the best. Okay. Cold too long now, then. Okay. That was my question.

Thanks. Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Stefan.

The next question comes from Matt's list from Kepler Shoebrew. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Hi, thank you. Just to follow up there on the service 14% target again. I mean, it's fair you mentioned that it was more long-term target, but I just get a feel for electrification trends. I mean, we have a lot of hybrid now, and I mean, the changeover maybe have been a bit delayed. to BEVs. But BEVs normally have a lower service content and have you sort of included that in your sort of new target, how to manage that.

Yes, we have included that because when you talk service, it's a huge difference between combustion engines and fully electric, but you have a lot of other jobs. What we have seen in Norway is that the brakes, you have to repair them often. windshields is thinner and bigger so we have other jobs and body and paint shop so we have included the the the better situation we will have in future and every year we try to find new additional sales when we have the customer into our workshop so we take care of everything around the car one one now is air conditioned cleaner is a Quite new area there we are now.

But also Mats, when you take the full car park in Sweden, when you talk about full electrical vehicles, it's about 5-6%. If you take the car park, it's very easy to talk about the registrations of new cars when it's 35%. But we are working with the car park, and as Per mentioned, we try to work with the older segment of cars. And then to increase there and there you have no electrification. So I think in the workshop, you also need to focus on the car park and the number of electric cars there. So and that's much, much lower to the new registrations.

Great, great answer. Yeah. And another topic. I mean, you have these three year electric or semi-electric cars returning now from their three-year leases. What's the normal way of handling those? Do you resale them to full price or discounted price or do you send them out on a new lease or how do you handle that?

But you know, it's only one price on the used car. We value them 10 times per year, the cars we have in our stock. And then we sell them to market price. And I think the majority is on a normal sale.

To the end customer.

To the end customer. It's not a big thing to lease them out again. And I would say that is also due to the new car offers. So that I say it's more normal sales to... private consumers. That's the majority. Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you.

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Thank you very much for listening and good luck. Thank you. Thank you very much.